Creighton
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +12.2 #43
Expected Predictive Rating +11.0 #54
Pace 66.4 #249
Improvement +1.8 #89

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #36 A- C- A- D+ C
Defense #66 B+ B+ D A+ A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #326 1.37 #15 -0.1 #180
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #278 0.80 #109 -1.2 #238
Three Pointers 51% #19 1.09 #86 +7.2 #16
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #44 +5.9 #44
Freethrows 14.9 #298 76% #62 11.4 #258
Second Chance 29.4% #224 1.00 #241 0.29 #239
Turnovers 13.6% #28
Total Offense +7.9 #36

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #200 1.07 #78 +1.8 #113
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #12 0.67 #74 -2.1 #327
Three Pointers 32% #352 0.98 #136 +4.9 #22
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #54 +4.6 #53
Freethrows 10.1 #4 70% #68 7.1 #363
Second Chance 27.0% #66 0.96 #73 0.26 #46
Turnovers 14.9% #285
Total Defense +4.2 #66

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #173 -2.2% #35
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 11.1% #33 -7.0% #61
Possession Length 17.6 #203 18.1 #299
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #36 0.09 #12
Improvement +3.2 #26 -1.4 #271

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 3.1% 4.5% 1.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 51.1% 60.5% 40.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 48.0% 57.6% 37.0%
Average Seed 9.2 9.0 9.5
.500 or above 92.4% 97.0% 87.0%
.500 or above in Conference 91.5% 96.6% 85.4%
Conference Champion 1.6% 2.4% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four12.1% 12.0% 12.1%
First Round45.2% 54.6% 34.2%
Second Round20.9% 26.0% 15.0%
Sweet Sixteen4.8% 6.0% 3.4%
Elite Eight1.5% 2.0% 0.8%
Final Four0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Providence (Away) - 53.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 10
Quad 26 - 310 - 13
Quad 35 - 114 - 14
Quad 45 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 282 South Dakota W 92 - 76 97% +12  1 - 0 +6 +9 F A+ D- -3 C A C
 Tue, Nov 11 10 @Gonzaga L 63 - 90 15% -11  1 - 1 -4 -2 B- F F -0 C- A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 14 324 Maryland Eastern Shore W 84 - 45 98% +18  2 - 1 +26 +14 A+ B+ B+ +15 A A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 19 319 North Dakota W 75 - 60 98% +9  3 - 1 +3 +1 F A+ A- +2 B- B+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 37 Baylor L 74 - 81 44% -5  3 - 2 +7 +8 A+ D- F -1 A+ F B-
 Tue, Nov 25 6 Iowa St. L 60 - 78 20% -10  3 - 3 +3 +1 A- F D- +2 A+ F D-
 Thu, Nov 27 72 Oregon W 76 - 66 66% +6  4 - 3 +18 +9 C+ F A+ +9 A+ A- F
 Tue, Dec 2 205 Nicholls St. W 96 - 76 94% +15  5 - 3 +14 +22 A+ C+ A+ -7 D A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 16 @Nebraska L 50 - 71 22% -14  5 - 4 -1 -8 F C C+ +5 A- B+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 74 Kansas St. L 76 - 83 76% -8  5 - 5 -2 +9 B- F A+ -11 A- C F
 Wed, Dec 17 92 @Xavier W 98 - 57 62% +21  6 - 5 1 - 0 +50 +25 A+ D+ B- +23 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 106 Marquette W 84 - 63 84% +14  7 - 5 2 - 0 +22 +6 B D+ A +15 A+ A+ B-
 Mon, Dec 22 232 Utah Tech W 92 - 69 95% +11  8 - 5 +16 +13 A+ F C+ +3 C+ D- A
 Tue, Dec 30 58 Butler W 89 - 85 72% +7  9 - 5 3 - 0 +10 +16 A+ A+ C -5 A A- D
 Sun, Jan 4 49 @Seton Hall L 54 - 56 44% +5  9 - 6 3 - 1 +12 -2 D- D+ A+ +14 A+ A+ D-
 Wed, Jan 7 34 @Villanova W 76 - 72 32% -2  10 - 6 4 - 1 +21 +19 A+ B+ A+ +3 A+ A- F
 Sat, Jan 10 15 St. John's L 73 - 90 42% -13  10 - 7 4 - 2 -3 +10 A+ F A+ -14 F A+ F
 Tue, Jan 13 100 Georgetown W 86 - 83 OT 83% -1  11 - 7 5 - 2 +5 +20 A+ D A+ -15 F F C
 Fri, Jan 16 68 @Providence W 83 - 82 54%
 Wed, Jan 21 92 Xavier W 81 - 72 80%
 Tue, Jan 27 106 @Marquette W 78 - 73 67%
 Sat, Jan 31 4 Connecticut L 68 - 74 29%
 Wed, Feb 4 100 @Georgetown W 78 - 74 64%
 Sat, Feb 7 49 Seton Hall W 71 - 67 65%
 Wed, Feb 11 98 @DePaul W 73 - 69 65%
 Sat, Feb 14 34 Villanova W 71 - 70 54%
 Wed, Feb 18 4 @Connecticut L 65 - 77 13%
 Sat, Feb 21 15 @St. John's L 73 - 81 23%
 Wed, Feb 25 98 DePaul W 76 - 66 82%
 Sat, Feb 28 68 Providence W 86 - 79 74%
 Wed, Mar 4 58 @Butler L 77 - 78 50%
Totals 18 - 13 12 - 8 +12 +8 A- C- A- +4 B+ B+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.4 4.4 1.9 0.2 10.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.9 9.0 8.6 3.2 0.2 25.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 7.0 11.7 8.8 2.3 0.1 31.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 6.3 7.4 3.9 0.8 0.0 20.4 5th
6th 0.8 2.6 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.7 6th
7th 0.2 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 5.5 10.4 15.9 19.7 19.6 14.4 8.0 2.7 0.6 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 70.3% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
16-4 25.4% 0.7    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0
15-5 4.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.6% 100.0% 22.9% 77.1% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.7% 98.0% 15.5% 82.5% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 97.6%
15-5 8.0% 94.6% 11.7% 82.9% 8.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.3 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.4 93.9%
14-6 14.4% 85.6% 9.4% 76.1% 8.9 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.8 3.7 3.2 0.9 2.1 84.1%
13-7 19.6% 70.4% 6.9% 63.5% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.5 4.9 2.8 0.0 5.8 68.2%
12-8 19.7% 46.4% 4.2% 42.2% 10.2 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.8 4.4 0.1 10.6 44.0%
11-9 15.9% 25.1% 3.6% 21.5% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.7 0.2 11.9 22.3%
10-10 10.4% 7.5% 2.6% 4.9% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.0 9.7 5.0%
9-11 5.5% 2.1% 1.9% 0.2% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.4 0.2%
8-12 2.4% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 2.4
7-13 0.6% 1.8% 1.8% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.6
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 51.1% 6.0% 45.1% 9.2 48.9 48.0%