Drake
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.7 #165
Expected Predictive Rating -3.2 #220
Pace 64.6 #297
Improvement -2.1 #283

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #168 C+ D+ B C- C
Defense #192 C B- D+ C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #298 1.19 #136 -2.0 #252
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #200 0.78 #146 -0.2 #188
Three Pointers 47% #74 1.08 #96 +4.4 #42
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #117 +2.2 #118
Freethrows 16.2 #250 72% #188 11.8 #236
Second Chance 25.4% #317 1.07 #151 0.27 #276
Turnovers 14.9% #83
Total Offense +0.0 #168

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #323 1.22 #261 +2.5 #96
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #161 0.65 #52 +0.8 #136
Three Pointers 47% #45 1.07 #265 -4.2 #332
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #204 -0.9 #206
Freethrows 16.1 #121 73% #218 11.8 #230
Second Chance 29.8% #145 0.95 #69 0.28 #90
Turnovers 15.2% #266
Total Defense -0.7 #192

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.3% #217 -1.0% #94
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.6% #114 2.7% #234
Possession Length 18.3 #272 17.2 #172
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #269 0.18 #206
Improvement -1.1 #251 -0.9 #241

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 2.5% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.0 14.8
.500 or above 13.7% 25.7% 8.6%
.500 or above in Conference 22.3% 37.7% 15.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.0% 2.8% 8.8%
First Four0.3% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round1.6% 2.4% 1.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Away) - 29.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 35 - 86 - 15
Quad 46 - 313 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 296 Northern Arizona W 77 - 71 75% +0  1 - 0 -2 +1 B- F B+ -3 C A+ F
 Thu, Nov 6 214 Robert Morris L 79 - 81 OT 69% -2  1 - 1 -8 -3 F F A+ -5 F B A+
 Fri, Nov 14 278 SIU Edwardsville L 59 - 61 80% -5  1 - 2 -12 -7 F B- A- -5 D- A+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 155 @College of Charleston W 71 - 62 35% +5  2 - 2 +12 +1 C+ D- F +12 A+ A+ C
 Fri, Nov 28 44 LSU L 62 - 71 12% -9  2 - 3 +3 -5 D F A+ +7 B A+ F
 Sat, Nov 29 111 Georgia Tech W 84 - 74 33% +5  3 - 3 +14 +21 A+ A+ A+ -7 C B- F
 Tue, Dec 2 357 Western Illinois W 108 - 57 93% +26  4 - 3 +33 +40 A+ A+ B- -2 C A+ F
 Fri, Dec 5 115 UAB L 69 - 74 45% -2  4 - 4 -4 -2 D- C A+ -2 B- D+ A
 Sat, Dec 13 148 North Dakota St. L 94 - 99 56% -9  4 - 5 -7 +16 A+ F C -23 F C- F
 Thu, Dec 18 89 @Murray St. L 72 - 81 17% -5  4 - 6 0 - 1 +1 +5 D+ B- C- -5 A+ D F
 Sun, Dec 21 251 @Evansville W 66 - 65 56% +2  5 - 6 1 - 1 -1 -0 C+ D D+ -1 A F C-
 Mon, Dec 29 91 Illinois St. L 56 - 73 35% -8  5 - 7 1 - 2 -14 -11 F C- A -4 F A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 207 Indiana St. W 74 - 72 69% -0  6 - 7 2 - 2 -4 +8 A+ C- B- -11 C F A+
 Wed, Jan 7 114 @Bradley L 66 - 93 24% -20  6 - 8 2 - 3 -20 -8 D+ F B- -11 F C F
 Sat, Jan 10 79 Belmont L 76 - 78 31% +11  6 - 9 2 - 4 +2 +1 A+ F F +2 A+ F C
 Wed, Jan 14 126 @Southern Illinois L 69 - 75 30%
 Sat, Jan 17 160 @Illinois-Chicago L 68 - 72 38%
 Wed, Jan 21 89 Murray St. L 76 - 80 35%
 Sat, Jan 24 207 @Indiana St. L 72 - 73 47%
 Wed, Jan 28 251 Evansville W 73 - 65 76%
 Sat, Jan 31 114 Bradley L 72 - 73 44%
 Tue, Feb 3 79 @Belmont L 70 - 81 16%
 Fri, Feb 6 91 @Illinois St. L 65 - 75 18%
 Mon, Feb 9 184 Valparaiso W 71 - 67 64%
 Thu, Feb 12 160 Illinois-Chicago W 71 - 69 59%
 Sun, Feb 15 107 @Northern Iowa L 59 - 67 24%
 Wed, Feb 18 126 Southern Illinois W 72 - 71 52%
 Wed, Feb 25 184 @Valparaiso L 68 - 70 43%
 Sun, Mar 1 107 Northern Iowa L 62 - 64 43%
Totals 12 - 17 8 - 12 -1 +0 C+ D+ B -1 C B- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 4.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.4 3.2 0.5 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 5.4 5.3 1.2 0.0 13.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.6 6.7 7.0 1.9 0.1 17.3 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 7.6 8.0 2.4 0.1 20.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.0 8.0 7.5 1.9 0.1 21.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.3 3.2 0.7 0.0 10.7 10th
11th 0.2 0.7 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.0 11th
Total 0.2 1.1 3.8 8.0 13.3 17.5 17.8 15.8 11.2 6.6 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 60.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 18.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.3% 13.3% 13.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-7 1.2% 9.9% 9.9% 12.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1
12-8 2.9% 5.5% 5.5% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.7
11-9 6.6% 3.5% 3.5% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.4
10-10 11.2% 3.0% 3.0% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.9
9-11 15.8% 2.2% 2.2% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 15.5
8-12 17.8% 1.3% 1.3% 15.8 0.1 0.2 17.6
7-13 17.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 17.4
6-14 13.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.3
5-15 8.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 8.0
4-16 3.8% 3.8
3-17 1.1% 1.1
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 14.4 98.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%