Drake
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.6#143
Expected Predictive Rating-3.3#223
Pace62.1#348
Improvement+0.4#145

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#198
First Shot-0.8#197
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#202
Layup/Dunks-0.3#191
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#174
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#118
Freethrows-2.3#312
Improvement-0.4#227

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#110
First Shot-1.0#207
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#30
Layups/Dunks+2.7#81
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#331
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#346
Freethrows+4.6#5
Improvement+0.8#107
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.2% 9.1% 5.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.3 13.2
.500 or above 52.8% 75.5% 49.1%
.500 or above in Conference 54.0% 68.4% 51.7%
Conference Champion 5.9% 10.5% 5.2%
Last Place in Conference 5.1% 2.7% 5.5%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round6.2% 9.0% 5.7%
Second Round0.7% 1.3% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: LSU (Neutral) - 13.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 42 - 5
Quad 36 - 68 - 12
Quad 47 - 315 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 249 Northern Arizona W 77-71 70%     1 - 0 +1.1 +1.9 -0.7
  Thu, Nov 6 185 Robert Morris L 79-81 OT 70%     1 - 1 -6.7 -1.2 -5.4
  Fri, Nov 14 204 SIU Edwardsville L 59-61 73%     1 - 2 -7.9 -5.6 -2.6
  Mon, Nov 17 151 @College of Charleston W 71-62 41%     2 - 2 +11.9 +0.4 +11.7
  Fri, Nov 28 40 LSU L 65-76 14%    
  Tue, Dec 2 353 Western Illinois W 72-56 93%    
  Fri, Dec 5 107 UAB L 70-71 48%    
  Sat, Dec 13 155 North Dakota St. W 70-66 64%    
  Thu, Dec 18 118 @Murray St. L 71-76 31%    
  Sun, Dec 21 291 @Evansville W 68-63 67%    
  Mon, Dec 29 102 Illinois St. L 66-67 47%    
  Sun, Jan 4 166 Indiana St. W 73-68 67%    
  Wed, Jan 7 112 @Bradley L 64-70 30%    
  Sat, Jan 10 94 Belmont L 68-70 42%    
  Wed, Jan 14 142 @Southern Illinois L 66-69 39%    
  Sat, Jan 17 174 @Illinois-Chicago L 69-70 46%    
  Wed, Jan 21 118 Murray St. W 74-73 52%    
  Sat, Jan 24 166 @Indiana St. L 70-71 45%    
  Wed, Jan 28 291 Evansville W 71-60 83%    
  Sat, Jan 31 112 Bradley W 67-66 50%    
  Tue, Feb 3 94 @Belmont L 65-73 24%    
  Fri, Feb 6 102 @Illinois St. L 63-70 27%    
  Mon, Feb 9 268 Valparaiso W 69-60 79%    
  Thu, Feb 12 174 Illinois-Chicago W 72-67 67%    
  Sun, Feb 15 90 @Northern Iowa L 58-66 24%    
  Wed, Feb 18 142 Southern Illinois W 69-66 60%    
  Wed, Feb 25 268 @Valparaiso W 66-63 62%    
  Sun, Mar 1 90 Northern Iowa L 61-63 43%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.9 1.7 0.5 0.1 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 2.7 3.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 8.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.4 4.5 1.9 0.3 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.4 4.9 2.1 0.2 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 4.0 5.2 2.3 0.2 0.0 12.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.9 5.1 2.1 0.2 12.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.8 4.2 1.7 0.2 11.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.2 3.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 9.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.4 2.0 1.6 0.5 0.0 6.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.8 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.3 6.6 8.6 10.3 11.7 11.6 11.5 9.9 7.9 5.6 3.7 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
17-3 91.3% 1.1    0.9 0.2
16-4 74.8% 1.6    1.0 0.5 0.0
15-5 44.5% 1.6    0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
14-6 15.2% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-7 2.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.9% 5.9 3.3 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 35.0% 30.0% 5.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1%
18-2 0.4% 28.2% 28.2% 11.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
17-3 1.2% 27.2% 27.2% 11.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.9
16-4 2.1% 23.8% 23.8% 12.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6
15-5 3.7% 23.8% 23.8% 12.3 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.8
14-6 5.6% 17.2% 17.2% 12.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.6
13-7 7.9% 11.5% 11.5% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.0
12-8 9.9% 8.4% 8.4% 13.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 9.1
11-9 11.5% 5.5% 5.5% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.8
10-10 11.6% 4.3% 4.3% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 11.1
9-11 11.7% 2.3% 2.3% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 11.4
8-12 10.3% 1.4% 1.4% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.2
7-13 8.6% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.5
6-14 6.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.5
5-15 4.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.3
4-16 2.6% 2.6
3-17 1.3% 1.3
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 93.8 0.0%