Lafayette
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.1 #326
Expected Predictive Rating -12.8 #337
Pace 68.1 #217
Improvement +0.3 #162

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #320 D D- C D+ B-
Defense #311 D+ D+ F B C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #110 1.06 #302 -0.6 #204
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #244 0.59 #345 -2.6 #307
Three Pointers 42% #170 0.96 #247 -0.8 #216
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #291 -4.1 #291
Freethrows 16.5 #237 70% #272 11.5 #250
Second Chance 24.1% #334 1.04 #191 0.25 #312
Turnovers 17.0% #206
Total Offense -5.8 #320

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #170 1.19 #225 -1.0 #211
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #84 0.81 #269 -1.9 #318
Three Pointers 37% #287 1.10 #295 +0.4 #165
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #263 -2.5 #264
Freethrows 14.7 #61 80% #363 11.8 #310
Second Chance 31.8% #230 1.12 #280 0.36 #270
Turnovers 12.7% #352
Total Defense -4.3 #311

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #100 -0.7% #104
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.1% #319 5.6% #283
Possession Length 17.6 #198 16.6 #72
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #357 0.20 #259
Improvement -0.9 #232 +1.2 #107

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 3.3% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 0.8% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 21.2% 35.3% 13.3%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.8% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 25.4% 13.4% 32.1%
First Four2.3% 3.2% 1.8%
First Round1.2% 1.8% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bucknell (Away) - 36.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 60 - 9
Quad 49 - 139 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 175 @Saint Joseph's L 76 - 85 13% -6  0 - 1 -7 +6 D+ B- B -13 C F F
 Sat, Nov 8 41 @Texas L 60 - 97 2% -18  0 - 2 -22 -8 F B F -15 C F D+
 Thu, Nov 13 193 Cornell L 78 - 97 31% -7  0 - 3 -24 -9 F F A- -14 C F F
 Mon, Nov 17 59 @West Virginia L 59 - 81 3% -11  0 - 4 -10 -4 B D- F -6 D D- C
 Fri, Nov 21 344 @Stonehill L 70 - 74 44% -4  0 - 5 -13 -6 F F F -7 F B C
 Fri, Nov 28 295 Le Moyne L 63 - 76 52% -1  0 - 6 -24 -15 F F F -9 C F D+
 Sat, Nov 29 303 Ball St. W 55 - 37 55% +4  1 - 6 +7 -16 F D A+ +25 A+ A+ B-
 Sun, Nov 30 185 Monmouth L 74 - 88 30% -13  1 - 7 -19 +0 C D C+ -19 F A+ D+
 Fri, Dec 5 308 Mercyhurst W 79 - 71 56% +2  2 - 7 -4 +10 A+ B- F -13 B F F
 Mon, Dec 8 206 @Penn L 72 - 74 16% -6  2 - 8 -2 -4 C+ F F +2 B- A+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 170 @Charlotte L 67 - 81 13% -11  2 - 9 -12 +5 C- C C -20 F C F
 Sat, Dec 20 111 @Georgia Tech L 81 - 95 7% -7  2 - 10 -7 +12 A+ F A+ -19 D F F
 Wed, Dec 31 215 Colgate L 77 - 85 34% -1  2 - 11 0 - 1 -14 -4 D C+ D- -10 D A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 336 @Loyola Maryland W 79 - 64 42% +15  3 - 11 1 - 1 +7 +6 D+ A+ B+ +2 B- A F
 Wed, Jan 7 256 Boston University L 67 - 83 44% -10  3 - 12 1 - 2 -24 -11 F F A+ -15 F C F
 Sat, Jan 10 200 @Navy L 50 - 76 16% -20  3 - 13 1 - 3 -25 -18 F F F -9 F C F
 Wed, Jan 14 318 @Bucknell L 67 - 71 36%
 Sat, Jan 17 310 Holy Cross W 71 - 69 56%
 Wed, Jan 21 256 @Boston University L 68 - 76 24%
 Sat, Jan 24 313 @Lehigh L 69 - 73 35%
 Mon, Jan 26 318 Bucknell W 70 - 68 58%
 Sat, Jan 31 239 @American L 67 - 76 21%
 Wed, Feb 4 200 Navy L 67 - 72 34%
 Sat, Feb 7 330 @Army L 72 - 75 41%
 Wed, Feb 11 336 Loyola Maryland W 76 - 72 64%
 Sat, Feb 14 313 Lehigh W 72 - 70 56%
 Wed, Feb 18 310 @Holy Cross L 68 - 72 34%
 Sun, Feb 22 239 American L 70 - 73 40%
 Wed, Feb 25 215 @Colgate L 68 - 78 18%
 Sat, Feb 28 330 Army W 75 - 72 63%
Totals 9 - 21 7 - 11 -10 -6 D D- C -4 D+ D+ F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.6 3rd
4th 0.3 3.0 3.0 0.7 0.1 7.1 4th
5th 0.3 3.5 5.2 1.4 0.1 10.4 5th
6th 0.3 3.5 7.2 2.1 0.1 13.2 6th
7th 0.2 3.1 8.3 3.7 0.2 15.4 7th
8th 0.3 2.8 8.0 5.3 0.3 0.0 16.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.9 7.1 5.4 0.8 0.0 16.7 9th
10th 0.2 1.2 3.6 5.3 3.7 0.9 0.0 15.0 10th
Total 0.2 1.3 4.1 8.5 13.9 17.7 18.2 15.0 10.8 6.1 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 66.7% 0.0    0.0
13-5 54.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 16.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.3% 15.8% 15.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 1.1% 9.8% 9.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.0
11-7 3.0% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 0.3 2.7
10-8 6.1% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.3 5.8
9-9 10.8% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.6 10.2
8-10 15.0% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.5 14.6
7-11 18.2% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.3 17.9
6-12 17.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 17.5
5-13 13.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 13.8
4-14 8.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.5
3-15 4.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.0
2-16 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.3
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 16.0 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%