Le Moyne
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.7 #295
Expected Predictive Rating -8.2 #294
Pace 70.9 #127
Improvement +1.1 #124

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #255 C C F C C+
Defense #320 C D D+ D C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #195 1.18 #146 +0.0 #176
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #240 0.61 #336 -2.4 #297
Three Pointers 45% #107 1.00 #203 +1.7 #128
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #196 -0.7 #196
Freethrows 17.8 #161 72% #222 12.8 #166
Second Chance 29.8% #214 1.03 #202 0.31 #201
Turnovers 19.3% #327
Total Offense -3.0 #255

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #229 1.07 #74 +2.7 #89
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #217 0.59 #12 +2.0 #47
Three Pointers 44% #97 1.18 #351 -5.3 #347
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #196 -0.6 #198
Freethrows 18.9 #263 77% #340 14.6 #59
Second Chance 34.6% #314 1.07 #223 0.37 #294
Turnovers 15.0% #277
Total Defense -4.7 #320

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.7% #144 0.2% #177
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.1% #207 1.0% #202
Possession Length 16.6 #115 16.7 #90
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #221 0.21 #287
Improvement -3.2 #339 +4.3 #8

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 43.6% 54.4% 28.0%
.500 or above in Conference 89.0% 94.6% 81.0%
Conference Champion 6.4% 8.6% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.4% 3.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Away) - 59.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 413 - 914 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 92 @Xavier L 69 - 74 7% -4  0 - 1 +4 +3 A+ F F +1 D+ A A+
 Sun, Nov 9 131 @Bowling Green L 60 - 83 13% -6  0 - 2 -18 -10 D+ C- F -8 C- A+ F
 Thu, Nov 13 168 @Massachusetts L 80 - 94 17% -11  0 - 3 -12 +2 C- C A- -13 F F C
 Mon, Nov 17 355 Niagara W 74 - 68 80% +4  1 - 3 -11 -4 C+ F F -6 F C C-
 Sat, Nov 22 281 Fairfield L 83 - 97 58% -12  1 - 4 -24 +3 D A+ F -26 F F F
 Fri, Nov 28 326 @Lafayette W 76 - 63 48% +1  2 - 4 +6 +1 D+ A+ F +5 B+ C+ B
 Sat, Nov 29 185 Monmouth W 83 - 79 28% +1  3 - 4 +2 +13 A+ B D- -11 A+ F F
 Sun, Nov 30 303 Ball St. L 85 - 96 52% -0  3 - 5 -19 +12 A+ F B+ -31 D- F C
 Sat, Dec 6 359 @Binghamton W 78 - 63 66% +10  4 - 5 +3 +4 B- D D -0 A- D F
 Tue, Dec 16 41 @Texas L 53 - 95 3% -18  4 - 6 -27 -18 F D+ D- -6 C F A
 Sat, Dec 20 127 @St. Bonaventure L 81 - 92 12% -1  4 - 7 -6 +11 C A- C -18 F D+ F
 Sun, Dec 28 151 @Boston College L 64 - 72 15% -2  4 - 8 -5 -6 C F F +2 D A+ C-
 Fri, Jan 2 360 @St. Francis (PA) W 84 - 58 66% +9  5 - 8 1 - 0 +14 +10 A+ B+ F +5 A- A+ F
 Sun, Jan 4 308 @Mercyhurst L 60 - 74 42% -8  5 - 9 1 - 1 -20 -8 F C+ C+ -13 D+ F D-
 Thu, Jan 8 340 New Haven W 73 - 47 73% +16  6 - 9 2 - 1 +12 +7 B+ C A- +8 B+ B+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 260 Central Connecticut St. L 59 - 69 53% -6  6 - 10 2 - 2 -19 -19 F D F +0 A+ C B-
 Sat, Jan 17 349 @Chicago St. W 77 - 75 59%
 Mon, Jan 19 219 LIU Brooklyn L 76 - 78 44%
 Fri, Jan 23 316 Wagner W 77 - 72 66%
 Sun, Jan 25 351 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 77 - 75 59%
 Thu, Jan 29 219 @LIU Brooklyn L 73 - 81 24%
 Sat, Jan 31 344 Stonehill W 75 - 68 74%
 Thu, Feb 5 316 @Wagner L 74 - 75 45%
 Sat, Feb 7 360 St. Francis (PA) W 80 - 70 83%
 Thu, Feb 12 308 Mercyhurst W 72 - 68 64%
 Sat, Feb 14 349 Chicago St. W 80 - 72 78%
 Thu, Feb 19 260 @Central Connecticut St. L 71 - 76 32%
 Sat, Feb 21 344 @Stonehill W 72 - 71 53%
 Thu, Feb 26 351 Fairleigh Dickinson W 80 - 72 77%
 Sat, Feb 28 340 @New Haven W 69 - 68 51%
Totals 14 - 16 10 - 8 -8 -3 C C F -5 C D D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 2.0 0.9 0.2 6.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.0 6.6 4.6 1.3 0.1 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 7.5 10.7 5.4 1.3 0.1 26.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 6.6 7.7 2.7 0.3 18.3 4th
5th 0.3 4.2 6.2 1.9 0.1 12.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 4.7 1.5 0.1 8.3 6th
7th 0.7 2.8 1.5 0.1 5.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 3.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.0 6.4 11.6 15.9 17.9 17.7 13.3 8.1 3.4 1.0 0.2 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0
15-1 90.6% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
14-2 59.9% 2.0    1.1 0.8 0.1
13-3 27.0% 2.2    0.8 1.1 0.3 0.0
12-4 7.4% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1
11-5 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 6.4% 6.4 2.9 2.5 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.2% 0.2
15-1 1.0% 1.0
14-2 3.4% 3.4
13-3 8.1% 8.1
12-4 13.3% 13.3
11-5 17.7% 17.7
10-6 17.9% 17.9
9-7 15.9% 15.9
8-8 11.6% 11.6
7-9 6.4% 6.4
6-10 3.0% 3.0
5-11 1.2% 1.2
4-12 0.3% 0.3
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2%