Long Beach St.
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.8 #264
Expected Predictive Rating -6.8 #271
Pace 68.3 #211
Improvement +2.2 #66

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #243 C- C- C+ D F
Defense #270 D C C F C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #275 1.23 #98 -0.8 #214
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #19 0.72 #226 +3.5 #35
Three Pointers 34% #318 0.97 #235 -4.4 #315
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #221 -1.7 #223
Freethrows 14.7 #311 72% #187 10.7 #294
Second Chance 27.2% #275 1.06 #169 0.29 #253
Turnovers 16.0% #140
Total Offense -2.7 #243

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #141 1.29 #321 -3.6 #304
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #133 0.82 #284 -1.2 #274
Three Pointers 38% #258 1.04 #217 +1.0 #142
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #297 -3.8 #297
Freethrows 20.7 #324 75% #304 15.6 #36
Second Chance 25.9% #37 1.30 #359 0.34 #229
Turnovers 17.0% #152
Total Defense -3.1 #270

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.3% #342 0.0% #160
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.0% #174 7.6% #313
Possession Length 17.6 #201 17.0 #126
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #303 0.19 #223
Improvement +0.3 #162 +1.9 #72

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.8% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 1.1% 1.5% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 18.3% 23.6% 7.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 20.5% 12.7% 35.9%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Home) - 66.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 112 - 16
Quad 48 - 510 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 52 @San Diego St. L 45 - 77 5% -13  0 - 1 -19 -21 F F F +3 A- F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 152 @Fresno St. L 62 - 82 19% -10  0 - 2 -17 -8 F D- F -8 F A- A-
 Wed, Nov 12 144 @Pacific L 66 - 69 18% +3  0 - 3 +1 -4 F B+ F +5 A+ F A-
 Sun, Nov 16 91 Illinois St. L 80 - 82 20% -4  0 - 4 +1 +12 A+ C+ A+ -11 B- A F
 Fri, Nov 21 161 Montana St. L 72 - 78 40% -3  0 - 5 -9 -2 C+ F C- -7 C+ D- F
 Wed, Nov 26 233 @Portland L 73 - 93 32% -11  0 - 6 -21 -2 D D+ D -18 F C C+
 Sun, Nov 30 222 San Diego W 76 - 72 52% -1  1 - 6 -2 +9 B- A+ A+ -11 F F A+
 Thu, Dec 4 181 @UC Santa Barbara L 77 - 84 OT 24% -1  1 - 7 0 - 1 -6 -2 F A+ C -3 C- A+ C+
 Sat, Dec 6 109 UC San Diego L 74 - 80 25% -4  1 - 8 0 - 2 -5 +4 B F A -9 F A+ C+
 Tue, Dec 9 227 @San Jose St. L 83 - 89 OT 31% -1  1 - 9 -7 +7 D A- C- -14 F F C
 Thu, Dec 18 286 Pepperdine W 81 - 78 66% -2  2 - 9 -7 +6 B+ D A -13 F F A+
 Sun, Dec 21 6 @Iowa St. L 60 - 91 1% -29  2 - 10 -7 -3 D+ F A+ -3 D+ D+ B
 Sat, Jan 3 249 Cal Poly W 74 - 66 58% +10  3 - 10 1 - 2 -0 -3 C D D+ +3 A+ F F
 Thu, Jan 8 122 @UC Irvine L 64 - 74 15% -7  3 - 11 1 - 3 -5 -3 B- F C- -1 C A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 293 Cal St. Bakersfield W 81 - 75 68% +5  4 - 11 2 - 3 -5 -2 C D+ F -3 F A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 15 287 UC Riverside W 75 - 71 66%
 Sat, Jan 17 216 @Cal St. Northridge L 76 - 82 30%
 Thu, Jan 22 231 @Cal St. Fullerton L 78 - 83 32%
 Sat, Jan 24 181 UC Santa Barbara L 73 - 74 45%
 Thu, Jan 29 287 @UC Riverside L 72 - 74 44%
 Sat, Jan 31 104 Hawaii L 67 - 75 23%
 Thu, Feb 5 109 @UC San Diego L 67 - 80 12%
 Thu, Feb 12 231 Cal St. Fullerton W 81 - 80 53%
 Sat, Feb 14 188 @UC Davis L 72 - 79 26%
 Thu, Feb 19 122 UC Irvine L 68 - 73 31%
 Sat, Feb 21 216 Cal St. Northridge W 80 - 79 51%
 Thu, Feb 26 249 @Cal Poly L 79 - 83 37%
 Sat, Feb 28 293 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 74 - 75 45%
 Thu, Mar 5 188 UC Davis L 75 - 76 46%
 Sun, Mar 8 104 @Hawaii L 64 - 78 11%
Totals 10 - 20 8 - 12 -6 -3 C- C- C+ -3 D C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.2 3rd
4th 0.3 1.8 2.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 6.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.5 4.1 1.8 0.1 8.7 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 5.7 2.7 0.2 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.6 6.7 3.8 0.5 0.0 12.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 6.6 6.1 1.0 0.0 14.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 6.3 7.8 1.7 0.1 17.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 5.3 6.2 1.8 0.1 14.8 10th
11th 0.4 1.8 3.9 4.0 1.3 0.1 11.6 11th
Total 0.4 1.8 5.4 10.5 15.0 17.9 17.3 13.4 9.0 5.3 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 41.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 23.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.3% 9.2% 9.2% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-7 1.0% 9.2% 9.2% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.9
12-8 2.5% 3.9% 3.9% 15.4 0.1 0.0 2.4
11-9 5.3% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.2
10-10 9.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.9
9-11 13.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.3
8-12 17.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 17.2
7-13 17.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.9
6-14 15.0% 15.0
5-15 10.5% 10.5
4-16 5.4% 5.4
3-17 1.8% 1.8
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.6 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%