Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.0 #234
Expected Predictive Rating -4.2 #231
Pace 60.1 #361
Improvement +0.1 #185

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #309 F D C D+ C
Defense #131 B D+ C C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #76 1.01 #329 -0.8 #209
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #153 0.68 #272 +0.2 #168
Three Pointers 36% #293 0.84 #343 -5.9 #338
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #348 -6.4 #343
Freethrows 16.6 #229 68% #314 11.2 #269
Second Chance 30.9% #177 0.83 #358 0.26 #298
Turnovers 16.9% #200
Total Offense -5.1 #309

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #309 1.05 #51 +4.8 #43
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #351 0.80 #254 +2.4 #28
Three Pointers 53% #6 0.94 #84 -3.9 #325
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #78 +3.3 #76
Freethrows 17.4 #189 72% #157 12.5 #178
Second Chance 34.1% #302 1.06 #214 0.36 #283
Turnovers 16.9% #153
Total Defense +1.2 #131

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #167 1.1% #267
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -13.8% #355 -7.1% #60
Possession Length 18.6 #308 18.1 #301
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #291 0.13 #44
Improvement +2.1 #65 -2.1 #305

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.7% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.0
.500 or above 18.5% 30.1% 11.8%
.500 or above in Conference 22.1% 35.6% 14.4%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.6% 6.7% 19.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round1.1% 1.7% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Home) - 36.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 4
Quad 33 - 103 - 14
Quad 49 - 312 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 85 @Nevada L 50 - 77 11% -16  0 - 1 -17 -14 F F F -7 B- F A-
 Sat, Nov 15 333 Jackson St. W 68 - 51 82% +3  1 - 1 +3 -10 F D- F +13 A+ D B-
 Wed, Nov 19 207 @Indiana St. L 51 - 60 34% -5  1 - 2 -9 -22 F F C- +13 A+ B+ C-
 Wed, Nov 26 207 Indiana St. W 75 - 73 57% +1  2 - 2 -4 +3 B- A+ F -7 F B D-
 Sat, Nov 29 347 Alcorn St. W 83 - 58 85% +10  3 - 2 +10 +12 C A A+ +0 B+ C+ C-
 Wed, Dec 3 230 @Georgia Southern L 69 - 77 37% -4  3 - 3 -9 -3 B- F B -6 F F B-
 Sat, Dec 13 315 Louisiana W 65 - 44 78% +11  4 - 3 +9 -1 D- B+ F +13 A- A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 158 @Tulane L 53 - 61 25% -6  4 - 4 -5 -8 F F F +2 A+ F D-
 Mon, Dec 29 257 UTEP W 75 - 63 67% +11  5 - 4 1 - 0 +4 +6 B+ F A+ -1 A+ F A+
 Fri, Jan 2 120 @Middle Tennessee L 51 - 88 18% -19  5 - 5 1 - 1 -31 -8 D+ F F -31 F B F
 Sun, Jan 4 150 @Western Kentucky L 61 - 66 24% -7  5 - 6 1 - 2 -2 -5 F B A+ +3 A+ F C+
 Thu, Jan 8 95 Liberty L 56 - 72 26% -8  5 - 7 1 - 3 -13 -9 D+ F A+ -7 A- F D
 Sat, Jan 10 271 Delaware W 70 - 68 OT 70% -5  6 - 7 2 - 3 -7 -2 F C+ C- -6 C F C-
 Wed, Jan 14 120 Middle Tennessee L 62 - 66 36%
 Sat, Jan 17 203 @Jacksonville St. L 60 - 65 33%
 Sat, Jan 24 159 Kennesaw St. L 70 - 71 46%
 Wed, Jan 28 257 @UTEP L 61 - 63 44%
 Sat, Jan 31 141 @Sam Houston St. L 65 - 73 23%
 Wed, Feb 4 139 New Mexico St. L 63 - 65 42%
 Sat, Feb 7 141 Sam Houston St. L 68 - 70 42%
 Thu, Feb 12 192 @Missouri St. L 60 - 65 32%
 Sat, Feb 14 172 @Florida International L 67 - 73 29%
 Wed, Feb 18 203 Jacksonville St. W 63 - 62 55%
 Sat, Feb 21 159 @Kennesaw St. L 67 - 74 26%
 Thu, Feb 26 192 Missouri St. W 63 - 62 54%
 Sat, Feb 28 172 Florida International L 69 - 70 49%
 Thu, Mar 5 95 @Liberty L 59 - 72 12%
 Sat, Mar 7 271 @Delaware L 60 - 61 49%
Totals 12 - 16 8 - 12 -4 -5 F D C +1 B D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.6 1.3 0.2 4.8 4th
5th 0.5 3.3 2.2 0.3 0.0 6.3 5th
6th 0.3 2.7 4.2 0.6 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 6.0 1.8 0.1 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 6.3 3.9 0.2 11.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 1.3 6.3 6.1 1.0 0.0 14.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.9 6.5 7.0 1.8 0.0 17.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.4 5.2 1.8 0.1 15.1 11th
12th 0.4 1.5 2.8 2.1 0.6 0.1 7.5 12th
Total 0.4 1.9 5.3 9.5 13.6 16.7 16.4 14.2 10.3 6.4 3.3 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 57.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 41.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 12.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.2% 14.7% 14.7% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.5% 9.9% 9.9% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-7 1.5% 7.7% 7.7% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.4
12-8 3.3% 5.0% 5.0% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.1
11-9 6.4% 3.5% 3.5% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.2
10-10 10.3% 2.3% 2.3% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 10.1
9-11 14.2% 0.9% 0.9% 15.3 0.1 0.0 14.1
8-12 16.4% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 16.3
7-13 16.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 16.6
6-14 13.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.6
5-15 9.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.4
4-16 5.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.3
3-17 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 14.8 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%