Loyola Maryland
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.1 #336
Expected Predictive Rating -16.0 #348
Pace 68.3 #213
Improvement -1.0 #242

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #277 C- D+ F D- B+
Defense #352 F F D C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #163 1.10 #252 -1.1 #223
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #332 0.73 #207 -3.5 #336
Three Pointers 49% #39 0.95 #261 +2.5 #99
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #227 -2.1 #231
Freethrows 14.8 #302 67% #327 9.9 #323
Second Chance 29.5% #221 0.95 #283 0.28 #261
Turnovers 19.5% #332
Total Offense -3.9 #277

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #75 1.32 #338 -5.8 #346
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #131 0.92 #354 -2.4 #335
Three Pointers 36% #317 1.05 #234 +2.1 #103
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #342 -6.1 #343
Freethrows 16.8 #161 76% #321 12.8 #203
Second Chance 34.8% #317 1.21 #335 0.42 #350
Turnovers 14.3% #312
Total Defense -7.1 #352

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.2% #55 0.3% #186
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.6% #265 11.6% #344
Possession Length 18.2 #263 16.9 #121
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #293 0.21 #299
Improvement +0.0 #177 -1.0 #246

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.3% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.4% 0.9% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 13.4% 25.1% 7.9%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 36.1% 21.2% 43.1%
First Four1.5% 2.2% 1.1%
First Round0.7% 1.2% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colgate (Home) - 31.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 30 - 50 - 7
Quad 48 - 159 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 166 Towson L 56 - 67 17% -4  0 - 1 -12 -12 F F D -1 C- C+ D+
 Tue, Nov 11 352 NJIT L 64 - 66 69% +1  0 - 2 -18 -13 F B- F -5 B- F C-
 Sat, Nov 15 344 Stonehill W 74 - 63 52% +3  1 - 2 -1 +3 B C C+ -3 F C A+
 Sun, Nov 16 281 @Fairfield L 82 - 85 24% -4  1 - 3 -7 +4 A+ F F -11 D+ F F
 Wed, Nov 19 132 @Duquesne L 78 - 92 8% -12  1 - 4 -9 +1 B- D+ C -10 D- F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 25 @Kentucky L 46 - 88 1% -26  1 - 5 -23 -18 F D+ F -4 C+ C+ D
 Sun, Nov 30 364 Coppin St. W 95 - 84 87% +7  2 - 5 -12 +11 A+ A- F -23 F C D-
 Wed, Dec 3 242 @Hampton L 71 - 93 19% -15  2 - 6 -24 -4 F A+ F -18 F A+ D-
 Tue, Dec 9 339 @VMI L 70 - 86 39% -15  2 - 7 -24 +1 F C+ C -27 F F F
 Sat, Dec 13 297 Mount St. Mary's L 73 - 81 49% -5  2 - 8 -19 -7 B- F F -11 F F A
 Sun, Dec 21 86 @George Mason L 79 - 86 4% +1  2 - 9 +3 +13 C+ A+ B- -10 B+ F F
 Wed, Dec 31 239 @American L 69 - 84 18% -10  2 - 10 0 - 1 -16 -1 B- F F -16 F D D-
 Sat, Jan 3 326 Lafayette L 64 - 79 58% -15  2 - 11 0 - 2 -28 -10 F F C- -19 F F F
 Wed, Jan 7 330 @Army W 84 - 76 OT 37% +3  3 - 11 1 - 2 +0 +3 D C F -3 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 318 @Bucknell L 67 - 70 32% +9  3 - 12 1 - 3 -9 -4 C+ F F -5 C+ D A+
 Wed, Jan 14 215 Colgate L 72 - 77 32%
 Sat, Jan 17 256 Boston University L 73 - 76 40%
 Mon, Jan 19 313 @Lehigh L 71 - 76 32%
 Sat, Jan 24 318 Bucknell W 72 - 71 56%
 Wed, Jan 28 239 American L 72 - 76 37%
 Sat, Jan 31 200 @Navy L 66 - 78 14%
 Wed, Feb 4 313 Lehigh W 74 - 73 53%
 Sat, Feb 7 256 @Boston University L 70 - 79 22%
 Wed, Feb 11 326 @Lafayette L 72 - 76 36%
 Sun, Feb 15 310 Holy Cross W 73 - 72 53%
 Wed, Feb 18 330 Army W 78 - 75 60%
 Sat, Feb 21 215 @Colgate L 69 - 80 15%
 Wed, Feb 25 200 Navy L 69 - 75 30%
 Sat, Feb 28 310 @Holy Cross L 70 - 75 32%
Totals 8 - 21 6 - 12 -11 -4 C- D+ F -7 F F D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.1 0.8 0.1 2.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.4 4th
5th 0.4 2.8 3.5 0.6 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.2 3.0 5.5 1.5 0.0 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.8 7.4 2.9 0.1 13.3 7th
8th 0.3 3.2 8.2 4.6 0.3 16.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 4.7 9.2 6.0 0.9 21.8 9th
10th 0.5 2.7 6.0 8.1 4.6 0.8 0.0 22.6 10th
Total 0.5 2.7 6.9 13.2 17.2 18.0 16.3 11.9 7.5 3.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 65.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 31.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 3.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 17.4% 17.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.5% 14.0% 14.0% 16.0 0.1 0.5
11-7 1.6% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.1 1.5
10-8 3.6% 7.5% 7.5% 16.0 0.3 3.3
9-9 7.5% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.4 7.2
8-10 11.9% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.3 11.6
7-11 16.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 16.2
6-12 18.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 17.9
5-13 17.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 17.1
4-14 13.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.1
3-15 6.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.9
2-16 2.7% 2.7
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 16.0 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%