LSU
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.9 #44
Expected Predictive Rating +11.1 #52
Pace 69.7 #162
Improvement -4.3 #344

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #42 A- A- B+ A- B
Defense #58 B A- D B+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #40 1.32 #40 +7.3 #13
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #220 0.84 #70 -0.4 #197
Three Pointers 37% #265 1.05 #144 -1.4 #241
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #46 +5.5 #48
Freethrows 19.3 #92 80% #12 15.3 #38
Second Chance 34.0% #91 1.20 #32 0.41 #41
Turnovers 14.4% #56
Total Offense +7.3 #42

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #263 1.04 #47 +4.0 #59
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #179 0.72 #129 +0.4 #162
Three Pointers 44% #93 0.98 #132 -0.9 #217
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #70 +3.5 #70
Freethrows 15.1 #76 69% #41 10.4 #317
Second Chance 28.6% #106 0.84 #14 0.24 #28
Turnovers 14.9% #288
Total Defense +4.7 #58

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.6% #82 -0.4% #136
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.6% #47 -6.6% #67
Possession Length 16.3 #88 18.1 #300
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #102 0.12 #29
Improvement -2.3 #315 -2.0 #301

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 4.0% 6.3% 1.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.9% 52.9% 31.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 41.4% 52.3% 31.4%
Average Seed 9.0 8.8 9.4
.500 or above 93.9% 97.8% 90.2%
.500 or above in Conference 23.1% 34.0% 13.1%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 15.2% 8.3% 21.6%
First Four10.5% 10.7% 10.3%
First Round36.9% 47.8% 26.8%
Second Round18.5% 24.7% 12.8%
Sweet Sixteen4.4% 5.9% 3.1%
Elite Eight1.6% 2.1% 1.1%
Final Four0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kentucky (Home) - 48.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 10
Quad 24 - 29 - 12
Quad 33 - 112 - 13
Quad 48 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 173 Tarleton St. W 96 - 60 92% +19  1 - 0 +32 +24 A+ A+ C +9 A+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 10 245 New Orleans W 93 - 58 96% +17  2 - 0 +27 +10 B C A+ +16 A+ A+ F
 Thu, Nov 13 172 Florida International W 98 - 81 92% +10  3 - 0 +13 +12 C+ A+ B+ -1 B+ B- F
 Tue, Nov 18 347 Alcorn St. W 107 - 81 99% +7  4 - 0 +11 +23 D A+ B+ -13 D- F D-
 Fri, Nov 21 258 Nebraska Omaha W 99 - 73 96% +16  5 - 0 +18 +10 A+ F D+ +5 B- A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 28 165 Drake W 71 - 62 88% +9  6 - 0 +8 -1 C+ F A+ +9 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Nov 29 98 DePaul W 96 - 63 74% +23  7 - 0 +38 +30 A+ A+ D- +8 B+ A+ B
 Wed, Dec 3 151 @Boston College W 78 - 69 OT 79% +4  8 - 0 +12 +4 D+ B- B +7 C+ A- B+
 Sun, Dec 7 21 Texas Tech L 58 - 82 34% -18  8 - 1 -8 -9 F D A+ +1 C+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 30 SMU W 89 - 77 40% +7  9 - 1 +27 +28 A+ A+ C+ -1 C B C
 Fri, Dec 19 266 SE Louisiana W 78 - 65 96% +12  10 - 1 +4 +14 A+ F A+ -8 C+ F D-
 Mon, Dec 22 317 Prairie View W 104 - 90 98% +2  11 - 1 +2 +19 C A A+ -19 F C+ C
 Mon, Dec 29 210 Southern Miss W 90 - 62 94% +14  12 - 1 +22 +15 B- A+ A+ +7 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 40 @Texas A&M L 72 - 75 35% -4  12 - 2 0 - 1 +13 +4 C C+ D+ +9 B A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 6 69 South Carolina L 68 - 78 75% -16  12 - 3 0 - 2 -5 +4 C C F -10 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 9 @Vanderbilt L 73 - 84 14% -11  12 - 4 0 - 3 +12 +9 A- C+ C +3 A A+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 25 Kentucky L 76 - 77 48%
 Sat, Jan 17 53 Missouri W 80 - 75 67%
 Tue, Jan 20 12 @Florida L 72 - 83 15%
 Sat, Jan 24 26 @Arkansas L 80 - 86 27%
 Wed, Jan 28 66 Mississippi St. W 79 - 73 73%
 Sat, Jan 31 69 @South Carolina W 74 - 73 53%
 Sat, Feb 7 23 Georgia L 84 - 85 46%
 Tue, Feb 10 26 Arkansas L 82 - 83 48%
 Sat, Feb 14 20 @Tennessee L 69 - 77 24%
 Tue, Feb 17 41 @Texas L 78 - 81 38%
 Sat, Feb 21 14 Alabama L 86 - 89 39%
 Wed, Feb 25 65 @Mississippi W 74 - 73 52%
 Sat, Feb 28 54 Oklahoma W 80 - 75 68%
 Tue, Mar 3 27 @Auburn L 77 - 83 28%
 Sat, Mar 7 40 Texas A&M W 82 - 80 58%
Totals 19 - 12 7 - 11 +12 +7 A- A- B+ +5 B A- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.4 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 1.1 0.1 3.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 2.6 0.3 0.0 4.4 6th
7th 0.4 3.5 1.5 0.0 5.5 7th
8th 0.1 2.6 3.9 0.3 6.8 8th
9th 0.9 5.5 1.8 0.0 8.2 9th
10th 0.3 4.0 4.6 0.3 0.0 9.2 10th
11th 0.0 1.8 6.3 1.8 0.0 10.0 11th
12th 0.8 5.3 4.4 0.3 10.7 12th
13th 0.3 3.0 6.3 1.2 0.0 10.7 13th
14th 0.2 2.0 5.5 2.7 0.1 10.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.9 3.4 0.5 9.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.7 2.5 0.5 0.0 7.7 16th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.6 4.1 8.6 13.2 16.8 16.9 15.2 11.2 6.8 3.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 50.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 21.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.3% 100.0% 6.5% 93.5% 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 1.3% 100.0% 6.9% 93.1% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 3.5% 99.3% 5.4% 93.9% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.3%
10-8 6.8% 97.3% 3.0% 94.4% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 2.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.2 97.3%
9-9 11.2% 91.0% 1.4% 89.6% 8.8 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.9 3.1 2.4 0.5 1.0 90.9%
8-10 15.2% 68.5% 0.8% 67.7% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.3 4.2 3.0 0.0 4.8 68.2%
7-11 16.9% 41.6% 0.2% 41.4% 10.5 0.1 0.5 2.1 4.2 0.1 9.9 41.5%
6-12 16.8% 13.9% 0.3% 13.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.9 0.1 14.5 13.7%
5-13 13.2% 1.6% 0.0% 1.6% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 13.0 1.6%
4-14 8.6% 8.6
3-15 4.1% 4.1
2-16 1.6% 1.6
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 41.9% 0.9% 41.0% 9.0 58.1 41.4%