Mercyhurst
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.7 #308
Expected Predictive Rating -9.0 #307
Pace 62.5 #340
Improvement -0.3 #203

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #330 F C- C F F
Defense #250 C D+ B- D+ F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #287 1.09 #266 -3.4 #296
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% #13 0.85 #66 +6.2 #6
Three Pointers 33% #333 0.76 #364 -8.4 #360
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #330 -5.6 #331
Freethrows 11.7 #360 75% #101 8.8 #360
Second Chance 25.2% #320 1.16 #50 0.29 #242
Turnovers 16.4% #164
Total Offense -6.3 #330

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #8 1.12 #136 -4.5 #318
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #276 0.66 #58 +2.0 #48
Three Pointers 35% #327 1.06 #246 +2.3 #96
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #183 -0.2 #183
Freethrows 18.0 #217 76% #327 13.7 #107
Second Chance 33.9% #296 1.04 #174 0.35 #258
Turnovers 18.2% #83
Total Defense -2.4 #250

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.7% #349 2.2% #348
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.6% #296 -1.8% #150
Possession Length 21.2 #365 15.4 #5
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #358 0.23 #330
Improvement +0.4 #157 -0.7 #226

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 27.5% 34.0% 11.7%
.500 or above in Conference 79.4% 86.0% 63.5%
Conference Champion 2.8% 3.6% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 3.5% 1.9% 7.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stonehill (Home) - 70.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 412 - 812 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 63 @Northwestern L 47 - 70 4% -12  0 - 1 -11 -20 F F B +8 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 6 259 @Loyola Chicago W 73 - 65 28% +7  1 - 1 +5 +0 C+ C- F +6 B+ A+ B+
 Wed, Nov 12 337 @Canisius L 55 - 58 48% -3  1 - 2 -11 -12 F F F +1 F A+ A-
 Sat, Nov 15 363 Morgan St. W 86 - 72 84% +13  2 - 2 -5 +6 D A+ C- -11 A+ F A-
 Thu, Nov 20 84 @Miami (OH) L 71 - 76 5% -5  2 - 3 +5 +6 B+ C+ D+ -2 A C C+
 Sun, Nov 23 171 @Marshall L 60 - 69 16% -5  2 - 4 -7 -5 F C C -2 D- A+ C-
 Sun, Nov 30 59 @West Virginia L 38 - 70 4% -18  2 - 5 -20 -22 F D F -2 B- F B
 Fri, Dec 5 326 @Lafayette L 71 - 79 44% -2  2 - 6 -15 +2 F A+ A -18 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 149 @Davidson L 47 - 80 13% -17  2 - 7 -29 -14 F F C -22 F D- D+
 Wed, Dec 17 61 @Syracuse L 62 - 76 4% -13  2 - 8 -2 -6 C C- D- +4 A- F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 359 Binghamton W 82 - 61 81% +19  3 - 8 +3 +1 C- D- B+ +2 C A+ B
 Fri, Jan 2 351 Fairleigh Dickinson L 67 - 74 76% +0  3 - 9 0 - 1 -23 -8 F C F -16 F C+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 295 Le Moyne W 74 - 60 58% +8  4 - 9 1 - 1 +3 +2 D A B- +2 A+ D- D+
 Thu, Jan 8 219 @LIU Brooklyn L 58 - 60 21% -4  4 - 10 1 - 2 -2 -6 F C- C+ +3 A- A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 316 @Wagner W 70 - 69 41% -1  5 - 10 2 - 2 -5 -1 C+ F A+ -5 C- C- C
 Sat, Jan 17 344 Stonehill W 67 - 61 71%
 Mon, Jan 19 260 Central Connecticut St. L 66 - 67 49%
 Fri, Jan 23 340 @New Haven L 61 - 62 47%
 Sun, Jan 25 349 Chicago St. W 73 - 66 75%
 Thu, Jan 29 340 New Haven W 64 - 59 70%
 Sat, Jan 31 349 @Chicago St. W 70 - 69 55%
 Thu, Feb 5 360 St. Francis (PA) W 73 - 64 80%
 Sat, Feb 7 351 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 69 - 68 56%
 Thu, Feb 12 295 @Le Moyne L 68 - 72 36%
 Thu, Feb 19 316 Wagner W 69 - 65 63%
 Sat, Feb 21 219 LIU Brooklyn L 68 - 71 41%
 Thu, Feb 26 260 @Central Connecticut St. L 63 - 69 29%
 Sat, Feb 28 344 @Stonehill L 64 - 65 50%
Totals 12 - 16 9 - 8 -9 -6 F C- C -2 C D+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.2 2.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.4 4.5 2.5 0.5 0.0 11.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 6.2 7.5 3.0 0.5 0.0 18.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 7.5 8.4 2.5 0.2 0.0 19.8 4th
5th 0.6 5.6 7.7 2.1 0.1 16.2 5th
6th 0.2 3.5 6.5 2.0 0.1 12.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 4.7 2.1 0.1 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.7 1.8 0.1 5.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.2 0.1 3.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.7 5.9 10.8 15.6 18.8 17.5 13.6 8.5 4.0 1.2 0.2 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 84.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1
14-2 62.9% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.0
13-3 25.2% 1.0    0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-4 9.2% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1
11-5 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.8% 2.8 1.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.2% 0.2
14-2 1.2% 1.2
13-3 4.0% 4.0
12-4 8.5% 8.5
11-5 13.6% 13.6
10-6 17.5% 17.5
9-7 18.8% 18.8
8-8 15.6% 15.6
7-9 10.8% 10.8
6-10 5.9% 5.9
5-11 2.7% 2.7
4-12 0.9% 0.9
3-13 0.2% 0.2
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2%