Mercyhurst
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.5#320
Expected Predictive Rating-7.1#271
Pace62.6#342
Improvement+0.3#155

Offense
Total Offense-5.8#329
First Shot-4.9#314
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#230
Layup/Dunks-2.0#251
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#8
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#336
Freethrows-3.0#331
Improvement+1.8#44

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#258
First Shot+0.4#156
After Offensive Rebounds-3.1#331
Layups/Dunks+0.1#169
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#69
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#71
Freethrows-4.7#357
Improvement-1.5#310
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 32.3% 57.7% 31.3%
.500 or above in Conference 68.3% 79.6% 67.9%
Conference Champion 8.1% 12.8% 8.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.1% 1.5% 5.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: West Virginia (Away) - 3.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 31 - 7
Quad 411 - 812 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 56 @Northwestern L 47-70 4%     0 - 1 -10.4 -19.6 +8.3
  Thu, Nov 6 265 @Loyola Chicago W 73-65 28%     1 - 1 +5.4 +1.0 +4.7
  Wed, Nov 12 348 @Canisius L 55-58 51%     1 - 2 -11.6 -14.3 +2.3
  Sat, Nov 15 360 Morgan St. W 86-72 79%     2 - 2 -3.0 +7.2 -9.7
  Thu, Nov 20 121 @Miami (OH) L 71-76 10%     2 - 3 +0.8 +5.1 -4.6
  Sun, Nov 23 183 @Marshall L 60-69 18%     2 - 4 -7.7 -5.2 -3.5
  Sun, Nov 30 71 @West Virginia L 54-73 3%    
  Fri, Dec 5 327 @Lafayette L 66-68 43%    
  Sat, Dec 13 135 @Davidson L 59-72 11%    
  Wed, Dec 17 64 @Syracuse L 58-78 3%    
  Sat, Dec 20 352 Binghamton W 69-62 74%    
  Fri, Jan 2 362 Fairleigh Dickinson W 75-66 80%    
  Sun, Jan 4 336 Le Moyne W 73-68 68%    
  Thu, Jan 8 232 @LIU Brooklyn L 65-72 26%    
  Sat, Jan 10 292 @Wagner L 64-68 35%    
  Sat, Jan 17 334 Stonehill W 67-62 68%    
  Mon, Jan 19 244 Central Connecticut St. L 63-64 48%    
  Fri, Jan 23 345 @New Haven W 64-63 50%    
  Sun, Jan 25 340 Chicago St. W 73-67 69%    
  Thu, Jan 29 345 New Haven W 67-61 70%    
  Sat, Jan 31 340 @Chicago St. L 69-70 48%    
  Thu, Feb 5 359 St. Francis (PA) W 72-64 77%    
  Sat, Feb 7 362 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 72-69 61%    
  Thu, Feb 19 292 Wagner W 67-65 57%    
  Sat, Feb 21 232 LIU Brooklyn L 68-69 45%    
  Thu, Feb 26 244 @Central Connecticut St. L 60-67 29%    
  Sat, Feb 28 334 @Stonehill L 64-65 47%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.0 2.7 1.7 0.6 0.2 8.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 4.3 4.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 12.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 6.0 4.8 1.4 0.1 14.4 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 6.4 4.9 1.0 0.0 14.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 5.8 4.9 0.9 0.1 13.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 4.9 5.1 1.0 0.0 12.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.6 4.3 1.2 0.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.5 3.3 1.0 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 2.1 0.7 0.0 5.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 3.4 5.7 8.8 11.8 14.2 14.3 13.6 10.9 7.8 4.7 2.0 0.6 0.2 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-1 97.9% 0.6    0.5 0.1
14-2 86.2% 1.7    1.3 0.4 0.0
13-3 58.5% 2.7    1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-4 26.2% 2.0    0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0
11-5 7.0% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 8.1% 8.1 4.6 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.2% 0.2
15-1 0.6% 0.6
14-2 2.0% 2.0
13-3 4.7% 4.7
12-4 7.8% 7.8
11-5 10.9% 10.9
10-6 13.6% 13.6
9-7 14.3% 14.3
8-8 14.2% 14.2
7-9 11.8% 11.8
6-10 8.8% 8.8
5-11 5.7% 5.7
4-12 3.4% 3.4
3-13 1.3% 1.3
2-14 0.6% 0.6
1-15 0.2% 0.2
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%