Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -0.2 160
Results Rating -0.8 173
Consistency 0.16 251
Pace 65.2 270
Improvement -2.5 281

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 161 C+ C- C+ D- D+
Defense C 186 C B- D+ D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 317 B- 62% 92 -1.8 246
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% 206 C+ 40% 102 +1.4 102
Three Pointers 44% 127 C+ 35% 143 +1.8 120
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.6 274 B- +2.1 102
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.05 131
Second Chance C 30.3% 182 D 0.94 312 C- 0.28 245
Opponents' Steals B- 8.5% 97
Other Turnovers C 7.3% 185
Turnovers C+ 15.9% 118
Freethrows D 0.26 323 D- 67% 332 D- 0.17 344
Total Offense C +0.2 161

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 47% 217 A- 7.1% 20
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 18% 281 C+ 4.5% 148
Three Pointers C+ 85% 163 B- 0.5% 90
Total C- 54% 213 A- 3.6% 16

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 86 C 58% 168 +2.0 249
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 186 B- 36% 94 -0.6 135
Three Pointers 37% 285 C 34% 181 -1.8 105
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.3 231 C+ -0.7 154
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 162
Second Chance B+ 25.6% 30 C- 1.08 255 B- 0.27 76
Turnovers from Steals C- 8.9% 227
Other Turnovers D+ 6.5% 285
Turnovers D+ 15.4% 265
Freethrows C- 0.32 245 D- 76% 349 D+ 0.25 279
Total Defense C -0.5 186

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 41% 47 C+ 12.3% 114
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 20% 81 C+ 6.2% 97
Three Pointers C 84% 191 B 1.7% 47
Total B- 50% 71 B- 7.1% 66

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.0 251 17.8 262
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 212 0.13 47
Consistency 0.14 310 0.12 199
Improvement -0.4 208 -2.1 294

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 189 162 137
Results Rating Rank 232 174 136
Conference Record 8 - 12 10 - 10 11 - 9
Conference Finish 8 6 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 7% 4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.3 15.3
.500 or above 16% 23% 4%
.500 or above in Conference 54% 72% 21%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 1%
First Round6% 7% 4%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: New Mexico St. (Home) - 64.0% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 36 - 67 - 12
Quad 47 - 414 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 12 297 @Evansville W 77 - 72 68% +8  90% 1 - 0 C -0 C- -1 C+ F B- C+ +1 C- B D
 Wed, Nov 19 1 @Michigan L 61 - 86 1% -13  7% 1 - 1 C+ +5 D -6 C- C C- A+ +13 A+ A- B-
 Sun, Nov 23 121 Murray St. W 90 - 87 38% +3  76% 2 - 1 B- +6 B +6 C A B+ C -1 C B+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 78 George Washington L 79 - 92 23% -10  2% 2 - 2 D+ -6 C+ +3 B- A- D+ D- -8 F A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 85 McNeese St. L 62 - 72 25% +3  72% 2 - 3 C- -3 B- +5 B+ F A F -10 A+ F D-
 Mon, Dec 1 112 UAB W 76 - 61 48% +4  47% 3 - 3 A- +15 B +6 C A B- A +10 A+ F A
 Sun, Dec 7 62 Belmont L 62 - 83 28% -8  13% 3 - 4 F+ -15 F -14 F C- A+ C -1 B- B- F
 Wed, Dec 17 154 Kennesaw St. W 68 - 67 60% +7  95% 4 - 4 1 - 0 C- -2 F+ -9 D- F F+ A- +7 A+ C+ B-
 Mon, Dec 29 6 @Houston L 60 - 69 2% -5  17% 4 - 5 A- +15 B+ +7 A+ C- F B+ +6 A- A- D+
 Fri, Jan 2 216 Louisiana Tech W 88 - 51 72% +19  97% 5 - 5 2 - 0 A+ +31 A+ +31 A+ F A+ A- +7 B- B+ B+
 Sun, Jan 4 105 Sam Houston St. W 68 - 67 45% +5  72% 6 - 5 3 - 0 C+ +2 D- -6 B- F B A- +8 C+ B- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 246 @UTEP L 80 - 83 OT 56% +5  79% 6 - 6 3 - 1 C- -5 B- +4 C+ F+ B- F+ -8 B- F F
 Sat, Jan 10 176 @New Mexico St. W 59 - 55 42% +0  51% 7 - 6 4 - 1 B- +6 F -12 D- F C+ A+ +18 A- A+ B
 Wed, Jan 14 216 @Louisiana Tech L 58 - 59 50% +10  91% 7 - 7 4 - 2 C -1 F+ -9 D- B- D A- +7 A A F
 Sat, Jan 17 207 Missouri St. W 90 - 87 2OT 70% +0  41% 8 - 7 5 - 2 C- -3 B- +5 A+ A+ F D- -7 D+ C D-
 Fri, Jan 23 194 @Jacksonville St. L 58 - 75 45% -9  2% 8 - 8 5 - 3 F+ -16 D- -7 D- D+ B+ F -11 F A+ D
 Thu, Jan 29 111 Liberty L 65 - 81 48% -12  4% 8 - 9 5 - 4 F+ -16 D+ -4 F+ A C F -14 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 140 Western Kentucky L 60 - 65 56% -1  41% 8 - 10 5 - 5 D+ -7 F -12 C- F C B +5 D+ A+ D
 Wed, Feb 4 203 Florida International L 84 - 88 OT 69% -1  16% 8 - 11 5 - 6 D -9 D -6 C F A+ C- -3 C+ A F+
 Sat, Feb 7 268 @Delaware L 88 - 89 OT 61% -0  46% 8 - 12 5 - 7 C- -4 A +12 B A+ C- F -17 F F+ C
 Thu, Feb 12 154 @Kennesaw St. W 90 - 87 37% -3  15% 9 - 12 6 - 7 B- +6 A+ +15 A+ D C- F+ -9 D- F F
 Sat, Feb 14 140 @Western Kentucky L 80 - 82 33% -3  25% 9 - 13 6 - 8 C+ +2 B +7 C A+ C+ D -5 F C A
 Wed, Feb 18 105 @Sam Houston St. L 70 - 78 24% -7  0% 9 - 14 6 - 9 C -1 D+ -3 D+ F A+ C+ +2 A- D+ F+
 Sat, Feb 21 268 Delaware W 78 - 66 80% +9  82% 10 - 14 7 - 9 C+ +3 B+ +7 F+ A+ A+ C- -3 C+ C+ C
 Thu, Feb 26 246 UTEP W 77 - 67 77% +11  96% 11 - 14 8 - 9 C+ +2 C +1 B- C+ D C+ +1 F A+ A-
 Sat, Feb 28 176 New Mexico St. W 75 - 71 64%
 Thu, Mar 5 203 @Florida International L 76 - 77 47%
 Sat, Mar 7 207 @Missouri St. L 70 - 71 47%
Totals 13 - 15 10 - 10 +0 C +0 C B- D+ C +0 C+ D- D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C B- C+ C+ B- 33% 36% 44% D+ C+ C D C- C+ D D- D- C C B- C C+ 42% 20% 37% C- C B+ C- B- D+ C- D- D+
1.09 62% 40% 35% +2 -1 1.05 30% 0.9 .28 16% .26 67% .17 1.09 58% 36% 34% -1 0 1.01 26% 1.1 .27 15% .32 76% .20
Nov
12		 Evansville C- A+ A+ F B 27% 31% 42% F+ C+ D F F B- C+ F D C+ C- F+ A+ C- 44% 31% 25% C- C- B B B D F C+ F
1.08 73% 65% 26% +7 -2 1.13 26% 0.6 .15 15% .28 59% .17 1.01 62% 47% 25% +1 -1 1.02 19% 1.0 .19 17% .41 71% .29
Nov
19		 Michigan D F+ F D C- 17% 31% 53% D+ C- C+ D+ C C- C- B- C- A+ D- A+ A+ A+ 49% 13% 38% C+ A+ A+ D A- B- D+ C+ D+
0.78 40% 22% 29% -12 -3 0.73 27% 0.9 .24 19% .19 75% .14 1.10 70% 29% 14% -6 +2 0.93 31% 1.5 .46 17% .40 73% .29
Nov
23		 Murray St. B C- B B- C 54% 27% 19% C+ C B+ B+ A B+ C- F F+ C F B C+ C- 36% 25% 38% A- C A+ F B+ F F A- D-
1.19 53% 44% 36% 0 0 1.02 40% 1.2 .47 13% .27 56% .15 1.15 70% 36% 33% +3 -1 1.07 22% 1.4 .30 11% .43 69% .30
Nov
24		 George Washington C+ A C- C- B- 40% 24% 36% C- B- F A+ A- D+ A+ A A+ D- D A+ F F 51% 8% 42% D+ F A+ F+ A+ F F+ F+ F
1.10 70% 33% 33% +3 0 1.08 19% 2.2 .41 20% .40 78% .31 1.28 67% 25% 50% +13 +3 1.34 15% 1.3 .19 13% .38 79% .30
Nov
25		 McNeese St. B- F A+ A+ A 19% 33% 49% F B+ B+ F F A F+ F F F A+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 25% 33% B A+ F F F D- F F F
1.09 25% 50% 48% +8 -3 1.12 41% 0.5 .21 19% .31 57% .17 1.27 41% 20% 23% -17 0 0.68 51% 1.4 .71 11% .49 92% .45
Dec
1		 UAB B C F B C 42% 23% 36% C C B- A+ A B- D+ A+ C A A+ B- A+ A+ 36% 18% 46% C- A+ D- F F A B+ F B-
1.15 59% 25% 37% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.3 .38 15% .21 83% .18 0.92 33% 33% 22% -18 0 0.66 37% 1.3 .46 17% .25 79% .20
Dec
7		 Belmont F F B F F 14% 27% 59% F F D B+ C- A+ C- C C- C D- D- C+ B- 46% 19% 35% B B- B C B- F A A+ A+
0.88 38% 40% 18% -16 -3 0.64 26% 1.2 .30 11% .26 75% .19 1.18 69% 45% 35% +7 +1 1.18 24% 1.2 .30 11% .21 38% .08
Dec
17		 Kennesaw St. F+ C- F C- D 29% 31% 40% F D- B+ F F F+ A+ C A+ A- B- A+ A+ A+ 56% 8% 35% F A+ F A+ C+ B- D F F
0.98 54% 29% 33% -5 -2 0.89 37% 0.4 .15 20% .58 75% .43 0.97 52% 25% 18% -13 +3 0.81 43% 0.7 .31 19% .39 82% .32
Dec
29		 Houston B+ A+ A A+ A+ 29% 17% 54% B- A+ A+ F C- F F F F B+ F A+ A+ A 35% 33% 33% C- A- C- A+ A- D+ D- F F
1.01 75% 43% 41% +11 0 1.24 39% 0.5 .21 32% .15 50% .07 1.16 88% 13% 27% -1 -2 0.96 39% 0.8 .31 10% .32 88% .28
Jan
2		 Louisiana Tech A+ A+ F A+ A+ 13% 8% 79% D+ A+ C F F A+ F F F A- C- D- A+ B- 37% 24% 39% B- B- A B- B+ B+ F D- F
1.51 100% 25% 58% +33 0 1.67 32% 0.6 .19 12% .16 25% .04 0.87 57% 44% 20% -7 -1 0.87 26% 0.8 .19 22% .42 68% .29
Jan
4		 Sam Houston St. D- F C A+ B+ 26% 30% 44% F+ B- D- F F B F A+ F A- A F F C+ 51% 27% 22% C C+ B+ C B- A+ B B+ B+
1.00 43% 38% 46% +4 -2 1.06 23% 0.2 .05 15% .17 90% .15 0.98 48% 46% 45% +1 0 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 25% .23 67% .16
Jan
8		 UTEP B- A+ F B+ B- 26% 30% 44% D- C+ F B F+ B- F+ A+ C- F+ D A D C+ 28% 40% 32% A- B- F F F F F C- F
1.12 79% 25% 38% +4 -2 1.06 22% 1.1 .25 17% .29 88% .25 1.16 64% 25% 38% -2 -3 0.92 34% 1.3 .45 13% .58 69% .40
Jan
10		 New Mexico St. F B+ F F F+ 38% 23% 38% C D- F F+ F C+ B+ F C- A+ B- C+ A+ A 27% 23% 50% C- A- A+ A A+ B F A+ D
0.91 67% 18% 22% -8 0 0.85 17% 1.0 .17 14% .43 63% .27 0.85 54% 36% 25% -8 -1 0.83 20% 0.8 .15 17% .41 59% .24
Jan
14		 Louisiana Tech F+ F F B- F+ 47% 16% 38% B- D- C+ B B- D B- F F+ A- A C A+ A+ 65% 15% 19% F A A+ B+ A F F F F
0.90 43% 14% 35% -10 +1 0.84 34% 1.2 .40 20% .35 50% .17 0.91 44% 38% 10% -16 +3 0.75 23% 0.7 .15 11% .36 76% .28
Jan
17		 Missouri St. B- F+ B A+ A 36% 14% 50% A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ F B B+ B+ D- B+ A+ F C 49% 18% 33% F D+ D B C D- D- B+ C-
1.18 56% 43% 52% +13 +1 1.30 33% 1.6 .52 24% .40 78% .31 1.14 54% 10% 47% 0 +1 1.04 36% 1.0 .36 14% .40 62% .25
Jan
23		 Jacksonville St. D- F A+ D- F+ 40% 17% 43% C D- C D- D+ B+ F+ F F F B A F F 60% 9% 32% F F B- A+ A+ D D+ F F
0.95 42% 50% 30% -7 +1 0.89 28% 0.9 .25 13% .26 57% .15 1.23 50% 25% 60% +7 +3 1.21 26% 0.6 .15 15% .37 84% .31
Jan
29		 Liberty D+ F+ F D+ F+ 26% 24% 50% D F+ B- A+ A C A F B- F F+ F F F 52% 8% 40% C F A+ A+ A+ F A C- A-
1.06 45% 30% 33% -6 -1 0.88 34% 1.5 .51 18% .32 63% .20 1.32 70% 75% 48% +17 +3 1.42 0% 0.0 .00 8% .18 70% .12
Jan
31		 Western Kentucky F B A F C- 40% 20% 40% B- C- C- F F C A+ F C+ B B D+ D+ D 35% 19% 46% C+ D+ A A+ A+ D A+ D- A+
0.91 63% 50% 25% -1 0 1.00 27% 0.5 .14 18% .53 55% .29 0.98 47% 40% 36% -2 0 0.98 24% 0.4 .10 12% .17 80% .14
Feb
4		 Florida International D A- A C- C 21% 7% 71% C C F F F A+ A+ D+ A+ C- B C F C 48% 34% 18% A- C+ A A- A F+ F C- F
1.02 67% 50% 33% +1 +1 1.05 22% 0.3 .07 15% .47 70% .33 1.07 52% 37% 40% -2 -1 0.96 25% 0.9 .23 13% .52 70% .37
Feb
7		 Delaware A A+ A+ D A- 11% 30% 59% F B A A A+ C- B+ F C F D+ B+ F F 35% 7% 59% F F C- F F+ C F F F
1.28 83% 63% 31% +8 -3 1.11 42% 1.3 .53 15% .32 68% .22 1.30 63% 33% 52% +17 +2 1.39 22% 1.2 .26 18% .37 90% .34
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
12		 Kennesaw St. A+ A A+ A+ A+ 44% 15% 42% B- A+ C+ F D C- A A A+ F+ C F D D- 43% 7% 50% D- D- B+ F F F C A- B-
1.28 67% 57% 45% +13 +1 1.31 31% 0.8 .23 17% .48 82% .40 1.24 57% 50% 37% +3 +2 1.11 29% 1.7 .50 11% .34 62% .21
Feb
14		 Western Kentucky B A+ B- F C 34% 25% 41% C- C A- A+ A+ C+ F C- F D F D+ C- F 40% 12% 48% D- F A+ F C A F F F
1.13 79% 43% 22% +1 -1 1.02 36% 1.2 .44 17% .22 69% .15 1.16 65% 40% 35% +4 +1 1.12 21% 1.5 .32 20% .56 88% .49
Feb
18		 Sam Houston St. D+ C+ B+ F C- 31% 28% 41% D D+ F+ F F A+ F F F C+ C+ A+ B- A 56% 17% 28% F A- D C D+ F+ B- F D
1.01 61% 44% 25% -3 -1 0.93 21% 0.8 .16 9% .24 53% .13 1.12 57% 11% 33% -6 +2 0.94 39% 1.0 .39 13% .25 93% .23
Feb
21		 Delaware B+ A+ C- F D- 31% 29% 41% D+ F+ A A+ A+ A+ B+ A A C- F F A- C- 24% 29% 48% A+ C+ A+ F C+ C F F F
1.26 73% 36% 20% -5 -2 0.90 41% 1.3 .54 8% .33 89% .30 1.06 70% 50% 30% +3 -2 1.05 8% 2.0 .16 18% .41 86% .35
Feb
26		 UTEP C C A+ C B+ 24% 35% 41% F B- C+ C- C+ D B B+ A- C+ B- F F F 39% 20% 41% F F A+ A+ A+ A- D D+ D
1.13 58% 56% 33% +6 -3 1.08 36% 1.0 .36 21% .41 77% .31 0.98 56% 44% 47% +9 0 1.20 12% 0.7 .08 21% .31 71% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.3 3.6 3rd
4th 0.1 5.4 8.5 14.0 4th
5th 1.6 15.1 3.4 20.1 5th
6th 10.6 13.3 0.4 24.3 6th
7th 2.2 20.7 4.0 0.0 27.0 7th
8th 5.1 1.8 6.8 8th
9th 3.4 3.4 9th
10th 0.7 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 11.4 34.8 38.2 15.6 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 15.6% 10.9% 10.9% 13.6 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.1 13.9
10-10 38.2% 5.8% 5.8% 14.4 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.0 36.0
9-11 34.8% 3.8% 3.8% 15.4 0.8 0.5 33.5
8-12 11.4% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.4 11.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 14.5 94.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.7% 100.0% 13.6 2.4 42.5 46.6 8.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.3%
Lose Out 5.2%