Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.0#149
Expected Predictive Rating+3.8#118
Pace70.0#173
Improvement+0.9#101

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#138
First Shot+1.9#122
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#247
Layup/Dunks+0.4#156
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#24
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#169
Freethrows-2.5#318
Improvement+1.3#59

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#187
First Shot-1.5#225
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#139
Layups/Dunks-3.5#295
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#167
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#50
Freethrows-2.8#323
Improvement-0.4#235
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.4% 10.3% 6.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.1 13.6
.500 or above 52.3% 65.3% 41.5%
.500 or above in Conference 67.4% 73.8% 62.1%
Conference Champion 9.4% 12.5% 6.9%
Last Place in Conference 4.0% 2.4% 5.4%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round8.3% 10.2% 6.8%
Second Round0.7% 0.9% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UAB (Home) - 45.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 36 - 67 - 12
Quad 48 - 315 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 12 291 @Evansville W 77-72 66%     1 - 0 +0.8 +2.0 -1.3
  Wed, Nov 19 1 @Michigan L 61-86 1%     1 - 1 +3.7 -2.8 +9.2
  Sun, Nov 23 118 Murray St. W 90-87 38%     2 - 1 +6.1 +9.9 -4.1
  Mon, Nov 24 62 George Washington L 79-92 20%     2 - 2 -4.2 +5.0 -8.8
  Tue, Nov 25 82 McNeese St. L 62-72 25%     2 - 3 -3.0 +7.3 -12.7
  Mon, Dec 1 107 UAB L 77-78 45%    
  Sun, Dec 7 94 Belmont L 75-78 40%    
  Wed, Dec 17 163 Kennesaw St. W 84-80 63%    
  Mon, Dec 29 5 @Houston L 57-80 2%    
  Fri, Jan 2 194 Louisiana Tech W 70-65 68%    
  Sun, Jan 4 170 Sam Houston St. W 79-75 65%    
  Thu, Jan 8 234 @UTEP W 69-68 55%    
  Sat, Jan 10 108 @New Mexico St. L 66-73 27%    
  Wed, Jan 14 194 @Louisiana Tech L 67-68 47%    
  Sat, Jan 17 239 Missouri St. W 73-65 75%    
  Sat, Jan 24 222 @Jacksonville St. W 68-67 53%    
  Wed, Jan 28 97 Liberty L 73-75 42%    
  Sat, Jan 31 132 Western Kentucky W 79-78 54%    
  Wed, Feb 4 215 Florida International W 78-72 72%    
  Sat, Feb 7 241 @Delaware W 75-73 56%    
  Thu, Feb 12 163 @Kennesaw St. L 81-83 42%    
  Sat, Feb 14 132 @Western Kentucky L 76-81 33%    
  Wed, Feb 18 170 @Sam Houston St. L 76-78 44%    
  Sat, Feb 21 241 Delaware W 78-70 75%    
  Thu, Feb 26 234 UTEP W 72-65 73%    
  Sat, Feb 28 108 New Mexico St. L 69-70 47%    
  Thu, Mar 5 215 @Florida International W 75-74 51%    
  Sat, Mar 7 239 @Missouri St. W 70-68 55%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.2 2.5 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 9.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.6 4.0 3.2 1.5 0.3 0.1 12.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.2 4.6 3.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 12.7 3rd
4th 0.7 3.3 5.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.0 4.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.3 2.2 4.8 2.4 0.3 9.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 4.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 8.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 3.4 2.6 0.3 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 2.4 2.4 0.4 0.0 6.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.7 0.5 0.0 4.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.2 5.7 8.2 9.6 11.0 11.4 11.6 10.4 8.5 6.5 4.1 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 92.2% 1.0    0.9 0.1
17-3 87.0% 2.0    1.5 0.4 0.0
16-4 60.7% 2.5    1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0
15-5 34.3% 2.2    1.0 1.0 0.3
14-6 12.1% 1.0    0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.4% 9.4 5.4 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.4% 39.8% 39.8% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
18-2 1.1% 33.2% 32.9% 0.3% 12.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.5%
17-3 2.3% 25.1% 25.1% 12.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.7
16-4 4.1% 26.5% 26.5% 12.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.0
15-5 6.5% 18.9% 18.9% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.3
14-6 8.5% 17.2% 17.2% 13.1 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 7.1
13-7 10.4% 13.1% 13.1% 13.5 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 9.1
12-8 11.6% 6.7% 6.7% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 10.8
11-9 11.4% 5.3% 5.3% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 10.8
10-10 11.0% 3.8% 3.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 10.6
9-11 9.6% 2.0% 2.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.4
8-12 8.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 8.1
7-13 5.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 5.6
6-14 4.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.2
5-15 2.6% 2.6
4-16 1.4% 1.4
3-17 0.6% 0.6
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.3 1.8 0.9 0.4 91.6 0.0%