New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.9#108
Expected Predictive Rating+12.3#47
Pace63.2#329
Improvement-0.2#195

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#142
First Shot-2.3#244
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#40
Layup/Dunks-3.8#303
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#37
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#273
Freethrows+1.1#116
Improvement-1.6#321

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#85
First Shot+3.5#74
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#194
Layups/Dunks+0.9#144
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#195
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#128
Freethrows+1.2#110
Improvement+1.4#52
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.0% 24.3% 17.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.3 12.2 12.7
.500 or above 95.1% 97.5% 89.7%
.500 or above in Conference 89.6% 92.2% 83.8%
Conference Champion 30.1% 33.7% 22.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.5% 1.2%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round21.9% 24.2% 16.8%
Second Round3.6% 4.3% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.9% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Alabama (Neutral) - 68.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 38 - 410 - 7
Quad 411 - 221 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 15 101 New Mexico W 76-68 58%     1 - 0 +9.7 +10.0 +0.3
  Fri, Nov 21 221 Samford W 81-72 84%     2 - 0 +2.3 +13.5 -10.1
  Tue, Nov 25 133 UC Irvine W 57-45 58%     3 - 0 +13.9 -8.8 +22.8
  Wed, Nov 26 337 Georgia St. W 77-58 91%     4 - 0 +8.3 -3.1 +10.3
  Tue, Dec 2 180 South Alabama W 67-62 69%    
  Sat, Dec 6 252 @Abilene Christian W 66-60 71%    
  Sat, Dec 13 91 Tulsa L 68-70 42%    
  Sun, Dec 21 170 Sam Houston St. W 75-67 77%    
  Fri, Jan 2 215 @Florida International W 71-67 65%    
  Sun, Jan 4 239 @Missouri St. W 67-61 70%    
  Thu, Jan 8 132 Western Kentucky W 74-69 67%    
  Sat, Jan 10 149 Middle Tennessee W 73-66 73%    
  Thu, Jan 15 97 @Liberty L 66-70 35%    
  Sat, Jan 17 241 @Delaware W 71-65 69%    
  Thu, Jan 22 239 Missouri St. W 70-58 84%    
  Sat, Jan 24 215 Florida International W 74-64 81%    
  Wed, Jan 28 241 Delaware W 74-62 85%    
  Sat, Jan 31 163 @Kennesaw St. W 76-74 56%    
  Wed, Feb 4 194 @Louisiana Tech W 63-60 60%    
  Sat, Feb 7 234 @UTEP W 66-61 68%    
  Wed, Feb 11 97 Liberty W 69-67 55%    
  Sat, Feb 14 222 @Jacksonville St. W 65-60 66%    
  Sat, Feb 21 234 UTEP W 69-58 83%    
  Thu, Feb 26 132 @Western Kentucky L 71-72 47%    
  Sat, Feb 28 149 @Middle Tennessee W 70-69 53%    
  Thu, Mar 5 222 Jacksonville St. W 68-57 82%    
  Sat, Mar 7 163 Kennesaw St. W 79-71 74%    
Projected Record 19 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.9 5.1 7.1 7.3 5.4 2.3 0.7 30.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.2 6.4 6.3 3.3 1.1 0.2 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.1 5.5 4.0 1.3 0.2 14.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.4 2.4 0.5 0.1 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.3 1.9 0.4 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 2.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.2 0.2 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.9 4.3 6.2 8.1 10.3 11.9 12.8 12.7 10.6 8.3 5.6 2.3 0.7 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
19-1 100.0% 2.3    2.3 0.1
18-2 97.2% 5.4    5.0 0.4 0.0
17-3 87.4% 7.3    5.9 1.4 0.1
16-4 66.9% 7.1    4.4 2.3 0.3 0.0
15-5 39.7% 5.1    2.3 2.1 0.6 0.0
14-6 15.1% 1.9    0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.4% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 30.1% 30.1 21.1 7.2 1.6 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.7% 71.1% 64.0% 7.1% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 19.7%
19-1 2.3% 55.3% 52.1% 3.3% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.0 6.8%
18-2 5.6% 46.3% 45.8% 0.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.0 0.9%
17-3 8.3% 40.4% 40.3% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 0.6 2.3 0.5 5.0 0.3%
16-4 10.6% 30.3% 30.3% 12.2 0.3 1.9 1.0 0.1 7.4
15-5 12.7% 29.1% 29.1% 12.5 0.1 1.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 9.0
14-6 12.8% 22.6% 22.6% 12.7 0.0 1.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 9.9
13-7 11.9% 17.3% 17.3% 13.0 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.4 0.0 9.9
12-8 10.3% 11.6% 11.6% 13.3 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 9.1
11-9 8.1% 8.6% 8.6% 13.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 7.4
10-10 6.2% 4.6% 4.6% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.9
9-11 4.3% 3.7% 3.7% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.1
8-12 2.9% 2.4% 2.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
7-13 1.8% 0.7% 0.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.8
6-14 0.9% 1.9% 1.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.8
5-15 0.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 22.0% 21.9% 0.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.9 9.5 6.8 1.9 0.3 0.1 78.0 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 7.3 4.6 15.4 7.7 6.2 20.0 4.6 20.0 13.8 7.7