New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -1.1 176
Results Rating -2.8 215
Consistency 0.18 324
Pace 66.5 239
Improvement -5.9 353

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 143 C- C B D+ D-
Defense C- 230 B- D+ D F+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 324 C 58% 182 -3.3 300
2 Pt. Jumpers 47% 74 C- 37% 199 +2.4 58
Three Pointers 40% 211 C- 33% 219 -1.1 220
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -1.2 327 C- -0.9 203
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 243
Second Chance C+ 32.2% 124 D+ 0.96 288 C 0.31 174
Opponents' Steals B 8.2% 70
Other Turnovers B 6.3% 64
Turnovers B 14.5% 53
Freethrows D+ 0.28 263 C 73% 178 D+ 0.20 244
Total Offense C +0.8 143

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 53% 96 B- 9.1% 76
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 20% 246 B- 4.0% 110
Three Pointers D 78% 309 C+ 0.7% 121
Total C- 53% 234 B 4.4% 49

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 304 C 59% 199 -2.5 95
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 136 B 34% 44 -0.5 146
Three Pointers 44% 79 B- 32% 102 +0.7 219
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.4 98 B- -1.8 106
1st FG Attempt B- 0.98 108
Second Chance C 30.6% 193 D- 1.15 334 D+ 0.35 284
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.4% 261
Other Turnovers D 6.3% 310
Turnovers D 14.7% 301
Freethrows D- 0.37 332 D- 76% 345 F+ 0.28 350
Total Defense C- -1.9 230

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 45% 122 C+ 12.3% 115
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots A- 11% 3 C 5.0% 166
Three Pointers C- 86% 240 C+ 1.1% 118
Total C+ 53% 132 C 5.8% 162

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.6 210 17.7 255
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 109 0.20 271
Consistency 0.15 351 0.14 299
Improvement -2.3 305 -3.5 331

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 209 180 153
Results Rating Rank 260 210 171
Conference Record 6 - 14 8 - 12 9 - 11
Conference Finish 11 9 6
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3% 4% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.3 14.8 15.7
.500 or above 5% 10% 1%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 12% 2% 18%
First Four1% 0% 1%
First Round3% 4% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Away) - 36.0% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 35 - 86 - 11
Quad 46 - 612 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 15 52 New Mexico W 76 - 68 20% +2  70% 1 - 0 A- +16 A- +10 C- A A+ B+ +6 A+ D- A
 Fri, Nov 21 195 Samford W 81 - 72 65% +10  92% 2 - 0 C+ +4 A +11 A- A A- D -6 A- F F
 Tue, Nov 25 123 UC Irvine W 57 - 45 35% +5  93% 3 - 0 A- +15 F -11 F B F A+ +26 A+ A A+
 Wed, Nov 26 296 Georgia St. W 77 - 58 75% +9  73% 4 - 0 B +11 D -5 D D A A+ +14 B+ A- C+
 Tue, Dec 2 185 South Alabama L 75 - 77 52% +1  59% 4 - 1 C- -4 B- +4 C C- D D- -8 B+ F+ D
 Sat, Dec 6 241 @Abilene Christian L 69 - 77 51% -5  13% 4 - 2 D -9 C+ +3 D- D+ A- F -13 F F C
 Sat, Dec 13 64 Tulsa L 70 - 83 18% -13  1% 4 - 3 C- -4 D -5 F+ D C C+ +1 D F A+
 Sun, Dec 21 105 Sam Houston St. W 87 - 78 42% +13  96% 5 - 3 1 - 0 B +10 B +6 A D+ A+ B +4 A+ B C-
 Fri, Jan 2 203 @Florida International L 74 - 89 44% -11  8% 5 - 4 1 - 1 D- -14 C- -1 B+ F C- F -13 D- F C+
 Sun, Jan 4 207 @Missouri St. L 82 - 89 44% -8  1% 5 - 5 1 - 2 D+ -7 B +6 B- C C+ F -12 D F C+
 Thu, Jan 8 140 Western Kentucky W 80 - 64 52% +16  99% 6 - 5 2 - 2 B+ +14 A- +10 C- A B- B+ +5 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 160 Middle Tennessee L 55 - 59 58% -0  43% 6 - 6 2 - 3 D+ -7 F -18 F F D+ A +11 A+ A D
 Thu, Jan 15 111 @Liberty L 71 - 73 24% -6  7% 6 - 7 2 - 4 C+ +4 A- +10 C+ B- A+ D -6 D+ C+ D-
 Sat, Jan 17 268 @Delaware W 97 - 68 58% +14  98% 7 - 7 3 - 4 A+ +26 A+ +32 A+ A+ A+ C- -3 B- D- F
 Thu, Jan 22 207 Missouri St. L 75 - 84 67% -5  28% 7 - 8 3 - 5 D- -15 C+ +3 F B A+ F -18 F A- C-
 Sat, Jan 24 203 Florida International L 78 - 81 66% -4  21% 7 - 9 3 - 6 D -8 D -5 F D C+ C- -3 C+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 268 Delaware L 64 - 73 78% -5  15% 7 - 10 3 - 7 F -18 D -6 B- F+ D- F -14 F B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 154 @Kennesaw St. L 53 - 76 34% -15  17% 7 - 11 3 - 8 F -20 F -19 F F D+ C- -2 C+ F F
 Wed, Feb 4 216 @Louisiana Tech W 72 - 63 46% +2  76% 8 - 11 4 - 8 B +9 B+ +8 A+ D+ C- C+ +2 C D+ B-
 Sat, Feb 7 246 @UTEP L 88 - 91 OT 53% +5  77% 8 - 12 4 - 9 C- -5 C +1 C- D+ A+ D -5 B+ F C
 Wed, Feb 11 111 Liberty L 75 - 77 44% -1  28% 8 - 13 4 - 10 C -2 C- -1 C- B B+ C -1 A+ F D-
 Sat, Feb 14 194 @Jacksonville St. W 79 - 70 42% +5  86% 9 - 13 5 - 10 B +10 A- +10 D+ A A C+ +1 A+ F+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 246 UTEP W 67 - 63 74% +3  70% 10 - 13 6 - 10 C- -4 C+ +3 D C- A+ D -6 B+ D- F
 Thu, Feb 26 140 @Western Kentucky L 70 - 93 30% -21  0% 10 - 14 6 - 11 F -19 F+ -10 F D+ B- D -6 F A+ D-
 Sat, Feb 28 160 @Middle Tennessee L 71 - 75 36%
 Thu, Mar 5 194 Jacksonville St. W 73 - 69 65%
 Sat, Mar 7 154 Kennesaw St. W 80 - 78 57%
Totals 12 - 15 8 - 12 -1 C +1 A+ C- D- C- -2 C- C D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C C- C- C- 33% 47% 40% D- C- C+ D+ C B D+ C D+ C- C B B- B- 34% 22% 44% B- B- C D- D+ D D- D- F+
1.10 58% 37% 33% -1 -1 0.98 32% 1.0 .31 15% .28 73% .20 1.11 59% 34% 32% -2 0 0.98 31% 1.2 .35 15% .37 76% .21
Nov
15		 New Mexico A- A+ D- F C- 17% 25% 58% D- C- B A+ A A+ A+ B+ A+ B+ C- A A+ A+ 31% 15% 54% B+ A+ B- F D- A C- F D
1.16 88% 33% 25% -4 -2 0.90 31% 1.3 .41 12% .45 77% .35 1.03 60% 29% 27% -7 0 0.90 28% 1.3 .38 20% .32 82% .27
Nov
21		 Samford A A- C+ A+ A 36% 34% 30% D+ A- B+ A A A- C C C D D+ D+ A+ A- 27% 20% 53% C+ A- D+ F F F C F D+
1.30 67% 41% 47% +10 -2 1.18 32% 1.3 .43 10% .28 75% .21 1.16 64% 40% 22% -7 -1 0.86 26% 1.4 .37 5% .35 76% .27
Nov
25		 UC Irvine F C- A F F+ 29% 37% 34% F F A- C B F A+ C- A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 27% 34% 39% A A+ A+ F+ A A+ F B- F
0.82 50% 47% 7% -13 -3 0.71 41% 0.9 .38 30% .55 70% .39 0.64 55% 21% 13% -19 -3 0.59 17% 1.2 .20 26% .56 66% .37
Nov
26		 Georgia St. D F+ F A+ D+ 38% 29% 33% F+ D B F D A F C F+ A+ D A+ A A- 27% 22% 51% D- B+ C+ A+ A- C+ A+ B A+
1.04 50% 29% 42% -2 -1 0.97 39% 0.7 .26 12% .21 71% .15 0.78 60% 8% 25% -13 -1 0.75 26% 0.7 .19 18% .20 75% .15
Dec
2		 South Alabama B- B- A+ F C+ 20% 19% 61% D- C A+ F C- D C+ B- B- D- B+ A+ C- B+ 49% 22% 29% C B+ B+ F F+ D F F F
1.13 64% 80% 24% 0 -1 1.00 45% 0.7 .33 20% .24 77% .19 1.16 50% 22% 33% -8 +1 0.88 18% 2.0 .36 11% .66 82% .54
Dec
6		 Abilene Christian C+ F B B+ D- 41% 19% 41% D+ D- A+ F D+ A- A+ B+ A+ F B- F F F 36% 26% 38% B- F F D F C F F F
1.09 47% 43% 40% 0 0 1.03 42% 0.6 .26 19% .68 77% .53 1.22 53% 45% 50% +9 -1 1.19 41% 1.0 .41 21% .46 83% .38
Dec
13		 Tulsa D F F+ C- F 43% 22% 35% C F+ D C- D C A+ D+ A+ C+ C B F D- 29% 7% 63% B D C F F A+ F D F
1.00 45% 27% 33% -8 0 0.86 21% 1.1 .24 16% .44 69% .31 1.19 58% 33% 42% +8 +1 1.20 32% 1.6 .52 23% .65 83% .54
Dec
21		 Sam Houston St. B C A+ B+ A+ 41% 23% 36% C A F+ A D+ A+ F B- F B A+ F B- A+ 38% 14% 48% D+ A+ D+ A B C- F B- F
1.17 60% 64% 36% +8 0 1.18 21% 1.3 .27 9% .16 73% .12 1.05 33% 50% 33% -8 +1 0.88 38% 0.8 .31 16% .42 69% .29
Jan
2		 Florida International C- B A+ B+ A- 31% 18% 51% D+ B+ F C- F C- F D- F F F A+ F F+ 40% 25% 35% B D- F F F C+ F D- F
1.04 63% 56% 38% +8 0 1.18 20% 1.0 .20 21% .21 67% .14 1.25 68% 25% 41% +5 0 1.10 41% 1.5 .62 18% .45 73% .33
Jan
4		 Missouri St. B A+ F+ A+ B 25% 45% 29% F B- A- F C C+ B- A+ A- F F A+ F F 22% 39% 39% A+ D F F F C+ F F F
1.15 85% 30% 47% +9 -4 1.12 39% 0.8 .33 17% .39 83% .32 1.25 80% 17% 50% +6 -4 1.07 39% 1.4 .56 18% .67 74% .50
Jan
8		 Western Kentucky A- F C- A+ C- 28% 28% 43% D C- A+ C+ A B- A+ A- A+ B+ A+ C- A+ A+ 37% 30% 33% A A+ D F F F D- C D-
1.21 31% 38% 45% 0 -2 0.98 44% 0.9 .41 17% .62 76% .47 0.97 15% 38% 22% -22 -1 0.56 36% 1.2 .44 8% .38 74% .28
Jan
10		 Middle Tennessee F D+ C F F 27% 23% 50% D- F D F F D+ A F C A D- A+ A+ A+ 38% 23% 38% C- A+ A+ D+ A D F B+ F
0.85 54% 36% 25% -8 -1 0.83 20% 0.8 .15 17% .41 59% .24 0.91 67% 18% 22% -8 0 0.85 17% 1.0 .17 14% .43 63% .27
Jan
15		 Liberty A- B- D+ A+ B+ 19% 37% 44% F C+ C+ B- B- A+ F F F D D+ B F D 52% 14% 34% B- D+ C- A C+ D- F F F
1.22 60% 37% 43% +6 -3 1.08 33% 1.3 .42 12% .08 50% .04 1.25 65% 33% 47% +10 +2 1.25 19% 0.8 .15 10% .34 78% .27
Jan
17		 Delaware A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 27% 30% 43% D- A+ B- A+ A+ A+ F A+ D C- A+ A+ F B- 39% 17% 43% D+ B- C+ F D- F F+ B D-
1.57 80% 41% 46% +14 -2 1.27 33% 2.0 .67 6% .19 100% .19 1.10 44% 25% 45% 0 0 1.02 19% 1.3 .25 10% .32 72% .23
Jan
22		 Missouri St. C+ B D- F F 19% 41% 41% F+ F C- A+ B A+ D+ C+ C- F F F F+ F 32% 27% 41% C+ F F A+ A- C- F F F
1.16 70% 32% 27% -4 -4 0.85 29% 1.4 .39 8% .34 75% .25 1.30 79% 58% 39% +15 -1 1.30 43% 0.6 .27 17% .50 81% .41
Jan
24		 Florida International D F F C+ F 30% 28% 43% F F A- F D C+ A+ D- A C- C- F A+ C+ 39% 19% 42% C+ C+ A+ B- A+ F F C F+
1.03 44% 27% 35% -7 -2 0.85 43% 0.7 .29 20% .45 67% .30 1.07 59% 55% 25% -2 0 0.98 20% 1.0 .20 8% .40 68% .27
Jan
28		 Delaware D D+ B+ A B+ 18% 32% 50% F B- B- F F+ D- F F+ F F F F F F 34% 23% 43% B- F C+ A+ B+ C- D- F F
1.07 56% 44% 40% +6 -3 1.08 34% 0.6 .20 17% .16 75% .12 1.22 80% 50% 42% +15 -1 1.32 19% 0.5 .10 17% .30 100% .30
Jan
31		 Kennesaw St. F F C- F F 26% 41% 33% F F D+ F F D+ A+ B- A+ C- F A+ A- C 33% 19% 49% A- C+ C+ F F F F C- F
0.79 30% 38% 15% -17 -4 0.62 26% 0.6 .16 18% .64 77% .49 1.14 71% 25% 29% -2 0 0.98 33% 1.4 .47 12% .61 69% .42
Feb
4		 Louisiana Tech B+ B- A+ A+ A+ 42% 22% 36% C- A+ B- F D+ C- D+ F+ D C+ F+ A+ D C 31% 24% 44% B+ C F A- D+ B- F A F
1.13 58% 50% 44% +8 0 1.18 37% 0.8 .30 19% .29 67% .19 0.99 64% 9% 35% -4 -1 0.91 48% 0.6 .30 20% .50 56% .28
Feb
7		 UTEP C D- D- A+ C- 38% 29% 33% C- C- D C- D+ A+ D F F D C- A+ B B+ 23% 26% 51% C B+ F F F C F C F
1.08 50% 33% 43% 0 -1 1.00 30% 1.0 .30 12% .32 61% .20 1.12 62% 20% 31% -6 -2 0.86 38% 1.3 .49 17% .56 68% .39
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
11		 Liberty C- A C+ F C- 34% 21% 45% C- C- C- A+ B B+ F A+ F+ C A- F A- A+ 42% 7% 51% B- A+ F F F D- A+ F B+
1.11 68% 42% 28% 0 0 1.02 30% 1.5 .45 15% .12 100% .12 1.14 52% 75% 30% -3 +2 1.00 25% 1.7 .42 10% .15 89% .13
Feb
14		 Jacksonville St. A- C F D+ D 42% 9% 49% B D+ C A+ A A A+ A- A+ C+ A+ A+ A- A+ 43% 16% 41% B- A+ A- F F+ F B C B
1.20 58% 0% 32% -5 +2 0.96 28% 1.6 .44 12% .54 84% .45 1.06 40% 22% 29% -13 +1 0.78 23% 1.6 .37 5% .30 68% .21
Feb
21		 UTEP C+ C- D- C D+ 26% 34% 40% F D C+ D C- A+ F C- F D C- D- A+ A- 27% 25% 48% D+ B+ D D- D- F C+ F D+
1.15 57% 33% 33% -2 -3 0.92 36% 0.9 .33 7% .13 71% .09 1.08 62% 42% 22% -7 -1 0.85 29% 1.1 .32 10% .25 85% .21
Feb
26		 Western Kentucky F+ C+ F F F 27% 23% 50% D+ F D C D+ B- A+ B A+ D D- F+ F F 42% 15% 42% D F A+ A+ A+ D- F B F
0.89 60% 31% 18% -13 -1 0.73 23% 0.9 .21 16% .52 74% .38 1.18 60% 44% 44% +8 +1 1.20 11% 0.3 .03 11% .44 71% .31



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.9 0.9 5th
6th 4.6 4.6 6th
7th 1.7 7.0 8.7 7th
8th 2.9 22.9 2.0 27.7 8th
9th 0.4 13.5 12.9 26.7 9th
10th 3.0 14.5 1.7 19.2 10th
11th 6.0 4.4 0.1 10.4 11th
12th 1.5 0.1 1.6 12th
Total 10.9 35.4 39.2 14.5 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 14.5% 5.2% 5.2% 14.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 13.7
8-12 39.2% 3.5% 3.5% 15.3 1.0 0.4 37.8
7-13 35.4% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.8 34.6
6-14 10.9% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 10.7
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 15.3 96.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 14.2 10.1 55.7 34.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%
Lose Out 6.0%