New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.1 #139
Expected Predictive Rating -0.2 #167
Pace 65.5 #282
Improvement -2.8 #309

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #156 C C- B- C+ D-
Defense #137 B+ D C F B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #300 1.17 #169 -2.5 #270
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #58 0.81 #98 +3.3 #46
Three Pointers 39% #223 1.03 #160 -0.7 #208
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #178 +0.1 #176
Freethrows 17.7 #167 77% #60 13.6 #126
Second Chance 31.9% #144 0.95 #289 0.30 #219
Turnovers 15.5% #114
Total Offense +0.2 #156

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #324 1.14 #153 +3.8 #65
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #101 0.56 #7 +1.3 #91
Three Pointers 45% #83 0.98 #130 -0.9 #220
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #58 +4.2 #58
Freethrows 21.2 #334 76% #328 16.2 #18
Second Chance 29.9% #152 1.25 #349 0.38 #300
Turnovers 16.7% #180
Total Defense +0.9 #137

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.3% #316 -1.5% #63
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.5% #142 -6.7% #66
Possession Length 18.0 #249 17.5 #210
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #77 0.20 #277
Improvement -1.8 #289 -1.1 #252

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.6% 14.3% 8.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.0 13.5
.500 or above 72.1% 88.0% 67.2%
.500 or above in Conference 69.1% 86.1% 64.0%
Conference Champion 3.3% 10.1% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 0.5% 2.2%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round9.6% 14.3% 8.2%
Second Round0.6% 1.1% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Liberty (Away) - 23.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 32 - 3
Quad 35 - 87 - 11
Quad 49 - 316 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 15 48 New Mexico W 76 - 68 25% +2  1 - 0 +16 +14 C A+ A+ +3 A+ D A+
 Fri, Nov 21 240 Samford W 81 - 72 79% +10  2 - 0 +1 +13 A A- A- -10 B F F
 Tue, Nov 25 122 UC Irvine W 57 - 45 45% +5  3 - 0 +14 -10 F B+ F +25 A+ A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 290 Georgia St. W 77 - 58 79% +9  4 - 0 +12 -2 C- F A+ +12 A- A+ C
 Tue, Dec 2 190 South Alabama L 75 - 77 61% +1  4 - 1 -4 +7 C D F -11 B F F
 Sat, Dec 6 212 @Abilene Christian L 69 - 77 54% -5  4 - 2 -8 +4 D D C+ -13 F F B-
 Sat, Dec 13 93 Tulsa L 70 - 83 32% -13  4 - 3 -7 -3 F F B- -4 D+ F A+
 Sun, Dec 21 141 Sam Houston St. W 87 - 78 62% +13  5 - 3 1 - 0 +7 +7 A+ D+ A+ -1 A B C-
 Fri, Jan 2 172 @Florida International L 74 - 89 46% -11  5 - 4 1 - 1 -13 +0 A+ F D+ -13 D F B
 Sun, Jan 4 192 @Missouri St. L 82 - 89 50% -8  5 - 5 1 - 2 -6 +9 B- C C -15 D- F B-
 Thu, Jan 8 150 Western Kentucky W 80 - 64 64% +16  6 - 5 2 - 2 +13 +11 D+ A+ B- +3 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 120 Middle Tennessee L 55 - 59 56% -0  6 - 6 2 - 3 -4 -13 D F C- +8 A+ B+ D+
 Thu, Jan 15 95 @Liberty L 67 - 75 23%
 Sat, Jan 17 271 @Delaware W 68 - 64 66%
 Thu, Jan 22 192 Missouri St. W 71 - 65 71%
 Sat, Jan 24 172 Florida International W 79 - 74 68%
 Wed, Jan 28 271 Delaware W 71 - 61 83%
 Sat, Jan 31 159 @Kennesaw St. L 76 - 78 42%
 Wed, Feb 4 234 @Louisiana Tech W 65 - 63 58%
 Sat, Feb 7 257 @UTEP W 69 - 65 63%
 Wed, Feb 11 95 Liberty L 70 - 72 44%
 Sat, Feb 14 203 @Jacksonville St. W 68 - 67 51%
 Sat, Feb 21 257 UTEP W 72 - 62 81%
 Thu, Feb 26 150 @Western Kentucky L 74 - 76 42%
 Sat, Feb 28 120 @Middle Tennessee L 66 - 71 33%
 Thu, Mar 5 203 Jacksonville St. W 71 - 64 72%
 Sat, Mar 7 159 Kennesaw St. W 79 - 75 64%
Totals 15 - 12 11 - 9 +1 +0 C C- B- +1 B+ D C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.3 0.7 0.2 3.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 3.9 3.5 1.4 0.2 10.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 6.4 5.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 15.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 6.3 5.7 1.3 0.1 14.7 4th
5th 0.5 5.1 6.4 1.5 0.0 13.6 5th
6th 0.2 3.1 6.6 1.9 0.1 11.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 5.7 2.7 0.1 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.5 3.3 0.3 0.0 7.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.9 0.6 0.0 6.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.7 0.0 3.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 1.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.4 5.0 8.8 13.4 16.2 16.8 15.1 11.0 6.1 2.8 0.9 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0
16-4 77.3% 0.7    0.5 0.2
15-5 44.8% 1.3    0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 15.0% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1
13-7 2.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.2% 43.3% 43.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.9% 32.4% 32.4% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6
15-5 2.8% 30.0% 30.0% 12.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 2.0
14-6 6.1% 22.8% 22.8% 12.8 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.2 4.7
13-7 11.0% 17.8% 17.8% 13.0 0.4 1.0 0.5 9.1
12-8 15.1% 12.6% 12.6% 13.3 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.1 13.2
11-9 16.8% 7.8% 7.8% 13.5 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 15.5
10-10 16.2% 5.8% 5.8% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 15.3
9-11 13.4% 3.7% 3.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 12.9
8-12 8.8% 2.8% 2.8% 15.3 0.2 0.1 8.6
7-13 5.0% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.9
6-14 2.4% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 2.4
5-15 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.9
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 13.3 90.4 0.0%