North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -12.1 342
Results Rating -10.5 327
Consistency 0.17 262
Pace 63.9 303
Improvement -2.2 272

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 316 D- C D+ C- B-
Defense D- 337 D D- D C D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 21 D- 51% 333 +0.8 144
2 Pt. Jumpers 44% 106 D 33% 325 -1.3 251
Three Pointers 35% 309 D- 30% 333 -5.4 335
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.6 102 F+ -6.4 353
1st FG Attempt D- 0.90 342
Second Chance C 30.8% 170 C 1.04 160 C 0.32 154
Opponents' Steals D- 11.3% 322
Other Turnovers C+ 7.0% 150
Turnovers D+ 18.3% 281
Freethrows C+ 0.31 159 D- 67% 338 C- 0.21 212
Total Offense D -5.8 316

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F+ 33% 351 D+ 12.4% 269
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 17% 302 D+ 6.4% 271
Three Pointers D+ 80% 277 C 1.0% 207
Total F 42% 358 D- 7.3% 332

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 80 D+ 61% 253 +3.7 302
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 343 F+ 45% 351 -1.2 91
Three Pointers 42% 123 C- 35% 223 +1.3 251
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +1.1 347 D+ +2.6 283
1st FG Attempt D 1.10 308
Second Chance D 34.5% 326 D- 1.14 328 D- 0.39 344
Turnovers from Steals C 9.6% 173
Other Turnovers F 4.9% 362
Turnovers D 14.5% 314
Freethrows C+ 0.29 149 D 75% 311 C 0.22 169
Total Defense D- -6.4 337

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 172 C 11.5% 150
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 33% 313 C- 3.7% 248
Three Pointers D 89% 313 B+ 2.0% 31
Total C- 59% 253 C+ 6.3% 124

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.9 329 17.0 123
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 340 0.20 292
Consistency 0.11 113 0.14 298
Improvement -1.3 253 -0.9 237

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 346 341 332
Results Rating Rank 331 327 312
Conference Record 4 - 14 4 - 14 5 - 13
Conference Finish 12 12 11
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 100% 100%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: West Georgia (Away) - 28.5% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 31 - 62 - 9
Quad 45 - 117 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 81 @Mississippi St. L 62 - 86 3% -5  10% 0 - 1 D- -14 F+ -10 F+ B- F D+ -4 C B- F
 Tue, Nov 11 269 Northwestern St. W 87 - 83 OT 39% +5  85% 1 - 1 D+ -5 C+ +3 D- A+ C F+ -8 F A+ D
 Sat, Nov 15 135 East Tennessee St. L 74 - 78 16% +8  88% 1 - 2 D+ -6 C -0 D+ A+ D+ D -5 F+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 41 @Clemson L 61 - 81 1% -14  5% 1 - 3 C- -4 C+ +3 D A- A+ F+ -9 B F A
 Sat, Nov 22 282 @Chattanooga L 57 - 71 22% -6  28% 1 - 4 F -18 F -12 D D F F+ -8 D+ F A-
 Mon, Dec 1 194 @Jacksonville St. W 73 - 66 11% -2  17% 2 - 4 B- +8 C+ +3 D- B B+ B +5 A+ F F+
 Wed, Dec 3 128 @San Francisco W 65 - 63 6% -4  37% 3 - 4 B- +7 D+ -4 F A+ F A+ +11 A+ C- D+
 Mon, Dec 15 309 @Alabama A&M L 60 - 68 27% -0  36% 3 - 5 D- -14 F -14 D F D- C -1 A F F
 Fri, Dec 19 148 @Loyola Marymount L 57 - 91 8% -22  0% 3 - 6 F -30 F -14 F F+ A F -17 F F F
 Thu, Jan 1 328 Stetson L 67 - 70 56% -0  38% 3 - 7 0 - 1 F+ -17 F -13 F C F+ D+ -4 F B+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 257 Florida Gulf Coast L 55 - 72 36% -8  0% 3 - 8 0 - 2 F -25 F -24 F F B- C- -2 D- B- B-
 Thu, Jan 8 287 @Eastern Kentucky L 80 - 88 22% -3  15% 3 - 9 0 - 3 D- -12 B- +4 C+ C B- F -17 D F F
 Sat, Jan 10 292 @Bellarmine W 82 - 73 24% +1  39% 4 - 9 1 - 3 C+ +4 A- +10 A+ D C+ D+ -4 D+ F D-
 Thu, Jan 15 333 North Florida L 91 - 105 59% -10  12% 4 - 10 1 - 4 F -28 B- +4 B- A C- F -32 F F F
 Sat, Jan 17 305 Jacksonville L 68 - 90 48% -13  10% 4 - 11 1 - 5 F -34 F -10 F C C F -24 F F D
 Wed, Jan 21 199 @Queens L 62 - 87 12% -10  4% 4 - 12 1 - 6 F -24 F -16 F D F F+ -9 D- F C+
 Thu, Jan 29 257 @Florida Gulf Coast L 64 - 72 18% -8  5% 4 - 13 1 - 7 D -10 F+ -10 F A C- C -1 C- C B
 Sat, Jan 31 328 @Stetson W 68 - 66 33% +3  81% 5 - 13 2 - 7 D+ -6 D -5 D+ D D- C +0 A- F C-
 Wed, Feb 4 173 @Central Arkansas L 60 - 81 10% -7  15% 5 - 14 2 - 8 F -19 F -12 F D- C F+ -8 F D- C-
 Sat, Feb 7 167 @Austin Peay L 62 - 91 9% -17  4% 5 - 15 2 - 9 F -26 D+ -3 D- C- D+ F -27 F F F
 Mon, Feb 9 173 Central Arkansas L 65 - 72 22% +5  82% 5 - 16 2 - 10 D -11 F -10 C- C F C -1 B F B+
 Wed, Feb 11 312 West Georgia L 73 - 82 49% -6  2% 5 - 17 2 - 11 F -21 D+ -3 C+ F+ B F -19 F F+ F
 Sun, Feb 15 287 Eastern Kentucky W 84 - 78 OT 42% -1  39% 6 - 17 3 - 11 C- -4 D -5 D+ C F C+ +0 B A+ F
 Wed, Feb 18 199 Queens L 78 - 85 26% +1  55% 6 - 18 3 - 12 D- -12 D+ -2 C- A C F -10 F A D
 Sat, Feb 21 197 @Lipscomb L 51 - 73 12% -4  39% 6 - 19 3 - 13 F -21 F -17 F C- C D- -7 F A+ C+
 Wed, Feb 25 292 Bellarmine W 73 - 68 45% +3  78% 7 - 19 4 - 13 D+ -6 C- -1 D- A+ F D+ -3 A F D
 Sat, Feb 28 312 @West Georgia L 70 - 76 29%
Totals 7 - 20 4 - 14 -12 D -6 C- F+ B- D- -6 D- D- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D- D D- F+ 46% 44% 35% B- D- C C C D+ C+ D- C- D- D+ F+ C- D+ 43% 15% 42% D- D D D- D- D C+ D C
1.00 51% 33% 30% -6 +1 0.90 31% 1.0 .32 18% .31 67% .21 1.18 61% 45% 35% +3 +1 1.10 34% 1.1 .39 15% .29 75% .23
Nov
5		 Mississippi St. F+ F D+ B- D 26% 43% 31% F F+ C- A+ B- F D- F F D+ D A C- C 40% 24% 36% C- C F A+ B- F F C+ F+
0.87 29% 35% 35% -8 -4 0.78 24% 1.3 .31 18% .20 58% .12 1.20 68% 31% 35% +3 0 1.07 43% 0.7 .30 10% .37 67% .25
Nov
11		 Northwestern St. C+ F+ F B F+ 51% 15% 34% B+ D- B+ A+ A+ C A+ D- A+ F+ F D C F 40% 31% 29% C F B A+ A+ D F F F
1.17 50% 29% 38% -4 +2 0.98 40% 1.5 .60 17% .60 68% .41 1.11 67% 44% 33% +5 -1 1.10 20% 0.3 .07 15% .46 83% .38
Nov
15		 East Tennessee St. C D- F B+ D+ 41% 13% 46% B- D+ B- A+ A+ D+ A A- A+ D F F C- F 35% 18% 47% B- F+ B+ A+ A+ F A A+ A+
1.08 53% 17% 38% -2 +1 1.00 33% 1.4 .45 20% .39 81% .31 1.14 74% 50% 35% +8 0 1.18 22% 0.6 .14 10% .23 57% .13
Nov
17		 Clemson C+ D- F F+ F+ 35% 13% 52% A- D A C+ A- A+ C- F D F+ C F+ B A- 39% 4% 57% D- B F D F A D- F+ F
0.97 47% 17% 28% -11 +1 0.81 33% 1.0 .33 13% .27 67% .18 1.29 61% 50% 31% -1 +2 1.04 54% 1.1 .60 19% .39 80% .31
Nov
22		 Chattanooga F C+ F D D 36% 19% 45% C- D C- D- D F C F F F+ D+ F C+ D+ 27% 15% 58% C- D+ F C+ F A- C- B C
0.94 60% 25% 32% -3 0 0.95 30% 1.0 .30 20% .35 53% .19 1.18 62% 57% 32% +2 0 1.06 42% 1.1 .45 20% .29 71% .21
Dec
1		 Jacksonville St. C+ F C+ D- F 52% 10% 38% A- D- B- B+ B B+ C- C C- B A+ A+ B A+ 46% 8% 46% D+ A+ D+ F F F+ C A+ A+
1.11 44% 40% 30% -9 +2 0.88 32% 1.2 .37 14% .32 78% .25 1.00 41% 0% 32% -13 +2 0.81 31% 1.5 .45 14% .35 45% .16
Dec
3		 San Francisco D+ F C+ F F 47% 29% 24% C F A+ C- A+ F B+ A A A+ A- D- A+ A+ 29% 14% 57% C+ A+ B+ F C- D+ B A A-
1.00 38% 40% 25% -12 -1 0.76 48% 1.1 .50 19% .32 82% .26 0.97 50% 43% 25% -9 0 0.84 27% 1.4 .38 14% .29 63% .18
Dec
15		 Alabama A&M F C F A D+ 32% 28% 40% F D F F F D- C- F D- C A+ F A+ A+ 36% 23% 40% C- A F F F F F A- F
0.92 60% 23% 42% +1 -1 1.02 12% 0.5 .06 18% .32 59% .19 1.04 35% 45% 21% -14 -1 0.72 32% 1.2 .39 11% .53 68% .36
Dec
19		 Loyola Marymount F F C F F 43% 31% 25% C- F C- F F+ A A+ F A- F B F F F+ 40% 9% 51% F F F F F F C- B C
0.83 32% 38% 23% -16 -1 0.69 30% 0.7 .21 12% .41 64% .26 1.32 55% 60% 43% +7 +2 1.20 38% 1.6 .59 13% .28 65% .18
Jan
1		 Stetson F D D- F F 45% 6% 49% A F B- D C F+ C+ D- C D+ F F A F 44% 16% 40% F F C A+ B+ C+ F D F
1.02 57% 33% 20% -11 +2 0.84 36% 1.1 .38 18% .30 69% .20 1.06 75% 57% 28% +7 +1 1.18 25% 0.7 .18 20% .36 74% .27
Jan
3		 Florida Gulf Coast F F F F F 48% 12% 40% B+ F F F F B- A+ F B+ C- C+ D- F D- 40% 21% 38% F+ D- B- B- B- B- A+ D- A
0.80 42% 0% 25% -18 +2 0.70 15% 0.8 .13 15% .46 67% .31 1.05 57% 45% 40% +5 0 1.12 28% 1.0 .28 19% .16 78% .13
Jan
8		 Eastern Kentucky B- B A A- B 26% 32% 43% F C+ F A+ C B- A+ F C F B F D+ D+ 28% 16% 56% F+ D F F F F F F F
1.21 67% 53% 40% +11 -2 1.19 23% 1.4 .33 14% .44 56% .25 1.34 50% 50% 36% +1 0 1.04 43% 1.4 .60 9% .38 83% .32
Jan
10		 Bellarmine A- A F A+ A+ 37% 20% 44% C A+ B+ F D C+ A+ B A+ D+ F A+ D+ D+ 35% 10% 55% C+ D+ C+ F F D- B A+ A
1.36 73% 25% 61% +21 0 1.44 42% 0.8 .33 15% .43 77% .33 1.21 76% 20% 37% +7 +1 1.18 19% 1.8 .33 13% .25 62% .15
Jan
15		 North Florida B- C+ C- B C+ 60% 10% 31% A B- C A+ A C- B D- C+ F F F F F 30% 13% 57% C+ F F F F F F+ F F
1.30 61% 40% 38% +4 +3 1.15 36% 1.6 .58 13% .33 65% .21 1.49 69% 57% 45% +15 0 1.33 38% 1.3 .50 10% .30 95% .28
Jan
17		 Jacksonville F D- A+ F F 53% 11% 36% A- F F A+ C C A+ A A+ F B- D- F F 61% 14% 25% F F F+ F F D D+ F F
1.01 54% 60% 19% -8 +2 0.91 19% 1.5 .29 15% .52 77% .40 1.34 52% 43% 54% +4 +2 1.16 35% 1.9 .65 15% .31 89% .28
Jan
21		 Queens F D- F F F 54% 13% 33% A- F C F D F A C A- F+ F+ F A+ D 58% 11% 31% F D- F C+ F C+ F F F
0.92 52% 17% 27% -10 +2 0.87 34% 0.8 .29 24% .43 73% .31 1.29 69% 80% 21% +5 +3 1.18 46% 1.1 .50 16% .44 96% .42
Jan
29		 Florida Gulf Coast F+ A- F F F 48% 24% 28% C F D+ A+ A C- A D B+ C B- F C- C- 27% 20% 53% C- C- C- B- C B B+ F C
0.97 68% 18% 8% -11 0 0.80 27% 1.8 .48 17% .43 71% .31 1.09 54% 50% 35% +2 -1 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 20% .21 91% .19
Jan
31		 Stetson D A- F D- D+ 40% 16% 44% C+ D+ D D+ D D- A- F+ B- C F+ A+ A+ A 46% 22% 33% D A- F F F C- D+ F F
1.08 72% 29% 30% +2 +1 1.07 29% 1.1 .32 17% .35 67% .23 1.05 67% 10% 20% -9 0 0.85 34% 1.3 .46 17% .31 88% .27
Feb
4		 Central Arkansas F F D+ D F 43% 12% 45% B- F D- C- D- C B- F D- F+ D- A+ F F 39% 7% 54% F+ F D+ D- D- C- A+ F A
0.90 43% 33% 32% -9 +1 0.88 22% 1.1 .24 20% .30 50% .15 1.22 67% 0% 41% +6 +2 1.19 29% 1.2 .35 15% .16 78% .12
Feb
7		 Austin Peay D+ F+ A+ F F+ 59% 18% 24% B+ D- A+ F C- D+ F A F F D- F F F 54% 6% 40% F F D+ F F F A+ A A+
1.00 50% 56% 25% -5 +2 0.96 45% 0.5 .21 19% .18 78% .14 1.47 63% 100% 55% +19 +3 1.46 30% 1.7 .52 11% .16 67% .11
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
9		 Central Arkansas F D A+ D- D 58% 8% 34% A C- C+ C- C F A+ C+ A+ C B- F A+ B+ 39% 9% 52% F+ B C- F F B+ F D F
0.96 55% 67% 31% -1 +3 1.05 30% 1.1 .33 28% .47 74% .35 1.07 56% 75% 25% -5 +2 0.96 28% 1.4 .41 19% .42 74% .31
Feb
11		 West Georgia D+ C D- A+ B- 53% 23% 25% C- C+ F D- F+ B D- D+ D- F C+ D F F 33% 31% 37% C- F D+ F F+ F B- F D+
1.13 61% 33% 46% +5 +1 1.13 22% 0.9 .19 12% .28 69% .19 1.27 53% 44% 47% +7 -2 1.13 31% 1.3 .41 11% .24 86% .21
Feb
15		 Eastern Kentucky D D+ B+ C D 45% 14% 40% B+ D+ A F C F A+ F+ A+ C+ C+ F A+ A 43% 5% 52% F B B A+ A+ F F A+ D
1.13 58% 50% 35% +2 +1 1.10 42% 0.8 .33 20% .77 67% .52 1.05 54% 100% 22% -8 +2 0.90 29% 0.7 .20 11% .39 58% .23
Feb
18		 Queens D+ C F A+ D 60% 10% 29% A C- C- A+ A C C F F F D+ B F F 49% 7% 44% F F A+ F+ A D F F+ F
1.16 59% 0% 43% 0 +3 1.08 32% 1.5 .50 15% .35 50% .17 1.26 64% 33% 45% +10 +3 1.27 15% 1.3 .19 13% .48 82% .39
Feb
21		 Lipscomb F D- D+ F F 41% 33% 25% D F B- F C- C F F F D- F F F F 35% 13% 52% B- F A A+ A+ C+ B+ A+ A
0.82 52% 35% 0% -16 -1 0.67 34% 0.8 .27 18% .19 60% .12 1.17 88% 67% 42% +20 +1 1.43 17% 0.5 .09 18% .17 56% .10
Feb
25		 Bellarmine C- F+ A+ C+ F+ 48% 13% 40% A- D- A+ C- A+ F A+ C- A+ D+ C A+ A+ A+ 67% 2% 31% F A F F F D F D F
1.24 53% 60% 38% +2 +2 1.10 57% 1.1 .63 22% .63 72% .46 1.16 61% 0% 15% -8 +4 0.95 33% 1.3 .44 14% .45 83% .37



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 14.4 14.4 11th
12th 71.5 14.1 85.6 12th
Total 71.5 28.5 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13 28.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 28.5
4-14 71.5% 71.5
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 14.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%
Lose Out 71.5%