North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.7 #279
Expected Predictive Rating -6.6 #268
Pace 66.2 #262
Improvement -2.1 #285

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #265 F C+ C D+ C
Defense #275 C F D- B D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #106 0.95 #355 -2.9 #280
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #161 0.63 #324 -1.0 #225
Three Pointers 37% #258 1.00 #200 -2.0 #261
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #337 -5.9 #336
Freethrows 16.9 #217 66% #343 11.1 #277
Second Chance 31.1% #167 1.09 #128 0.34 #133
Turnovers 16.5% #175
Total Offense -3.4 #265

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #202 1.18 #207 -0.3 #189
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #293 0.80 #256 +1.0 #121
Three Pointers 45% #76 1.00 #168 -1.6 #255
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #211 -0.9 #210
Freethrows 15.3 #84 69% #57 10.6 #301
Second Chance 35.6% #334 1.12 #277 0.40 #332
Turnovers 13.9% #325
Total Defense -3.3 #275

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.2% #177 0.9% #252
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.8% #343 0.9% #201
Possession Length 18.5 #295 17.0 #138
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #271 0.21 #307
Improvement -1.1 #247 -1.0 #245

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.8% 4.1% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 12.9% 15.2% 3.3%
.500 or above in Conference 36.4% 41.4% 15.5%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 6.3% 3.4% 18.4%
First Four2.0% 2.1% 1.8%
First Round2.9% 3.2% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Florida (Home) - 80.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 32 - 53 - 8
Quad 49 - 911 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 66 @Mississippi St. L 62 - 86 6% -5  0 - 1 -13 -6 D C+ F -6 D+ B+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 276 Northwestern St. W 87 - 83 OT 61% +5  1 - 1 -6 +3 F A+ C- -9 F A+ D-
 Sat, Nov 15 119 East Tennessee St. L 74 - 78 27% +8  1 - 2 -4 +3 D+ A+ C -7 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 33 @Clemson L 61 - 81 2% -14  1 - 3 -3 +5 D A- A+ -10 B+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 267 @Chattanooga L 57 - 71 36% -6  1 - 4 -17 -9 F F F -10 D- F A+
 Mon, Dec 1 203 @Jacksonville St. W 73 - 66 24% -2  2 - 4 +8 +6 F B+ B+ +2 A+ F F
 Wed, Dec 3 103 @San Francisco W 65 - 63 9% -4  3 - 4 +10 +2 F A+ F +8 A+ C D
 Mon, Dec 15 300 @Alabama A&M L 60 - 68 44% -0  3 - 5 -13 -10 D F D- -3 A+ F F
 Fri, Dec 19 130 @Loyola Marymount L 57 - 91 15% -22  3 - 6 -29 -10 F C- A+ -19 F F F
 Thu, Jan 1 345 Stetson L 67 - 70 78% -0  3 - 7 0 - 1 -18 -9 F C D- -8 F B+ B
 Sat, Jan 3 201 Florida Gulf Coast L 55 - 72 45% -8  3 - 8 0 - 2 -22 -22 F F B+ -1 D+ B- A-
 Thu, Jan 8 253 @Eastern Kentucky L 80 - 88 34% -3  3 - 9 0 - 3 -10 +9 B C C -19 D- F F
 Sat, Jan 10 294 @Bellarmine W 82 - 73 42% +1  4 - 9 1 - 3 +4 +15 A+ D+ C -10 C- F F
 Thu, Jan 15 350 North Florida W 85 - 76 81%
 Sat, Jan 17 305 Jacksonville W 70 - 65 66%
 Wed, Jan 21 202 @Queens L 75 - 82 25%
 Sat, Jan 24 265 Central Arkansas W 73 - 71 58%
 Thu, Jan 29 201 @Florida Gulf Coast L 72 - 79 25%
 Sat, Jan 31 345 @Stetson W 74 - 72 58%
 Wed, Feb 4 265 @Central Arkansas L 70 - 74 36%
 Sat, Feb 7 180 @Austin Peay L 67 - 75 23%
 Wed, Feb 11 320 West Georgia W 76 - 70 70%
 Sat, Feb 14 253 Eastern Kentucky W 75 - 73 56%
 Wed, Feb 18 202 Queens L 78 - 79 45%
 Sat, Feb 21 167 @Lipscomb L 69 - 78 20%
 Wed, Feb 25 294 Bellarmine W 77 - 73 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 320 @West Georgia L 72 - 73 49%
Totals 11 - 16 8 - 10 -7 -3 F C+ C -3 C F D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.3 1.2 0.2 4.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.6 2.7 0.5 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.4 4.8 0.8 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.3 3.9 6.7 1.7 0.0 12.6 6th
7th 0.1 2.6 7.7 3.1 0.2 13.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 7.2 4.7 0.3 13.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 5.3 5.8 0.8 0.0 12.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.6 5.4 1.5 0.1 11.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 2.4 3.6 1.2 0.1 8.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.7 12th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.1 8.5 13.5 17.6 17.9 15.4 10.9 6.3 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 50.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 75.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 25.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 32.1% 32.1% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.9% 18.9% 18.9% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8
12-6 2.8% 11.0% 11.0% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.5
11-7 6.3% 11.1% 11.1% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 5.6
10-8 10.9% 6.5% 6.5% 15.8 0.1 0.6 10.2
9-9 15.4% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.8 14.6
8-10 17.9% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5 17.4
7-11 17.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.3 17.2
6-12 13.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 13.4
5-13 8.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 8.4
4-14 4.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.1
3-15 1.6% 1.6
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 15.7 96.2 0.0%