Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -1.5 #179
Expected Predictive Rating -0.5 #175
Pace 71.0 #126
Improvement +1.5 #105

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #172 C- C+ C- C B-
Defense #215 D- D+ A C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #144 1.15 #190 +0.4 #159
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #271 0.60 #340 -2.6 #305
Three Pointers 44% #121 0.95 #254 +0.4 #161
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #230 -1.8 #227
Freethrows 16.4 #243 77% #53 12.6 #177
Second Chance 31.8% #145 1.11 #105 0.35 #105
Turnovers 17.4% #230
Total Offense -0.1 #172

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #186 1.18 #213 -0.5 #195
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #138 0.94 #359 -2.0 #320
Three Pointers 40% #221 1.12 #315 -1.5 #247
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #310 -4.0 #303
Freethrows 19.0 #267 71% #124 13.5 #121
Second Chance 33.3% #281 1.06 #208 0.35 #263
Turnovers 20.2% #22
Total Defense -1.4 #215

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #102 -0.2% #149
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.3% #257 8.9% #324
Possession Length 16.2 #76 17.6 #238
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.28 #12 0.18 #190
Improvement +2.5 #48 -1.0 #248

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.9% 13.7% 10.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.5 14.8
.500 or above 95.4% 97.3% 88.8%
.500 or above in Conference 91.6% 94.8% 80.5%
Conference Champion 9.1% 10.8% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round12.8% 13.6% 10.0%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Detroit Mercy (Home) - 77.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 63 - 8
Quad 415 - 418 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 20 @Tennessee L 56 - 95 4% -18  0 - 1 -20 -5 D- A- D- -14 F D+ C
 Wed, Nov 12 119 @East Tennessee St. L 63 - 75 25% -8  0 - 2 -6 -9 F F F +3 F A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 20 325 @Central Michigan W 90 - 66 70% +13  1 - 2 +17 +16 A- A+ C +2 D+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 253 Eastern Kentucky W 82 - 71 75% +4  2 - 2 +3 +1 D- A+ D- +1 B- D B+
 Wed, Nov 26 228 Wofford W 93 - 83 69% +2  3 - 2 +3 +9 B- B A -6 C- C+ C-
 Sat, Nov 29 256 Boston University W 74 - 65 75% -2  4 - 2 +1 +1 F A+ F +0 D C- A+
 Wed, Dec 3 328 Cleveland St. W 95 - 80 86% +8  5 - 2 1 - 0 +2 +11 A+ A+ F -9 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 237 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 77 - 79 49% +2  5 - 3 1 - 1 -3 -2 F D- F -1 F A A+
 Sat, Dec 13 294 @Bellarmine W 80 - 76 62% +6  6 - 3 -1 +0 D+ D- C+ -1 D+ C- A+
 Wed, Dec 17 135 Oakland L 77 - 82 50% -2  6 - 4 1 - 2 -7 -5 F C- B- -2 B- B+ C+
 Sun, Dec 21 155 College of Charleston L 74 - 85 55% -4  6 - 5 -14 -4 C C- F -9 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 214 @Robert Morris W 79 - 77 44% -1  7 - 5 2 - 2 +2 +4 C+ F D+ -2 D+ F A-
 Thu, Jan 1 353 IU Indianapolis W 81 - 72 91% -3  8 - 5 3 - 2 -7 -2 C F A- -5 D+ F A+
 Sun, Jan 4 209 Youngstown St. W 94 - 79 66% +15  9 - 5 4 - 2 +9 +10 A A C+ -2 A- B F
 Fri, Jan 9 229 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 85 - 67 47% +13  10 - 5 5 - 2 +17 +18 D- A+ C +1 B- C C-
 Sun, Jan 11 243 @Green Bay L 78 - 80 51% -13  10 - 6 5 - 3 -4 +15 C F A+ -19 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 15 273 Detroit Mercy W 82 - 74 77%
 Sat, Jan 17 214 Robert Morris W 77 - 73 66%
 Sat, Jan 24 142 @Wright St. L 72 - 78 30%
 Fri, Jan 30 273 @Detroit Mercy W 79 - 77 57%
 Sun, Feb 1 135 @Oakland L 81 - 87 29%
 Wed, Feb 4 243 Green Bay W 76 - 70 72%
 Sat, Feb 7 229 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 80 - 75 69%
 Thu, Feb 12 353 @IU Indianapolis W 90 - 81 80%
 Wed, Feb 18 237 Purdue Fort Wayne W 80 - 74 70%
 Sat, Feb 21 209 @Youngstown St. L 73 - 75 44%
 Wed, Feb 25 328 @Cleveland St. W 83 - 77 71%
 Sat, Feb 28 142 Wright St. W 75 - 74 51%
Totals 17 - 11 12 - 8 -1 +0 C- C+ C- -1 D- D+ A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.7 2.2 0.4 9.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.7 6.9 3.4 0.3 16.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 8.0 11.5 4.3 0.7 0.0 25.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 5.5 8.8 2.9 0.2 17.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.7 7.0 2.5 0.2 12.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 4.5 2.6 0.2 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.4 2.3 0.3 0.0 5.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 0.4 3.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 5.6 10.4 16.5 20.4 19.7 13.9 7.8 2.5 0.4 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-4 85.9% 2.2    1.6 0.5 0.1
15-5 47.2% 3.7    1.7 1.5 0.5 0.0
14-6 17.5% 2.4    0.5 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.1% 9.1 4.2 3.2 1.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.4% 35.4% 35.4% 12.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-4 2.5% 25.3% 25.3% 13.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.9
15-5 7.8% 22.5% 22.5% 13.9 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 6.0
14-6 13.9% 20.1% 20.1% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.0 0.0 11.1
13-7 19.7% 15.3% 15.3% 14.5 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.5 0.1 16.7
12-8 20.4% 11.4% 11.4% 14.9 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.3 18.1
11-9 16.5% 8.9% 8.9% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.5 15.0
10-10 10.4% 4.5% 4.5% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 9.9
9-11 5.6% 4.5% 4.5% 15.7 0.1 0.2 5.4
8-12 2.1% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.0
7-13 0.6% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 12.9% 12.9% 0.0% 14.5 87.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.7 37.9 58.6 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%