Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -1.9 191
Results Rating -2.5 209
Consistency 0.13 76
Pace 72.6 73
Improvement -1.5 247

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 220 C- C C- C- B-
Defense C 169 C- D B D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 162 C 59% 151 +0.6 152
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 284 D+ 35% 285 -2.7 307
Three Pointers 46% 78 D 30% 315 +0.1 172
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.8 81 D+ -2.6 272
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 234
Second Chance C 29.6% 201 C 1.03 176 C 0.30 188
Opponents' Steals C+ 8.8% 113
Other Turnovers D 8.6% 317
Turnovers C- 17.3% 217
Freethrows C- 0.29 223 C- 71% 245 C- 0.21 229
Total Offense C- -1.9 220

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 42% 292 B- 9.5% 97
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 238 C+ 4.6% 155
Three Pointers B- 87% 111 B- 0.5% 96
Total C- 54% 203 B- 4.6% 69

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 109 C 57% 161 +1.4 221
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 224 D+ 40% 272 -0.1 181
Three Pointers 40% 221 D+ 36% 270 +0.5 210
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.4 242 C- +1.3 232
1st FG Attempt C- 1.06 237
Second Chance D+ 32.9% 287 D 1.13 312 D 0.37 321
Turnovers from Steals B+ 12.2% 28
Other Turnovers C 7.4% 165
Turnovers B 19.5% 39
Freethrows D+ 0.34 293 B 70% 58 D+ 0.24 266
Total Defense C +0.0 169

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 51% 229 C+ 11.9% 133
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 35% 322 C- 3.7% 253
Three Pointers B 79% 59 C- 0.6% 230
Total C- 57% 212 C 5.9% 152

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.1 60 17.6 237
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 16 0.18 234
Consistency 0.12 174 0.10 39
Improvement -2.8 315 +1.3 119

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 213 192 166
Results Rating Rank 234 206 139
Conference Record 10 - 10 11 - 9 11 - 9
Conference Finish 7 6 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9% 10% 8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.4 15.2
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round9% 10% 8%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Wright St. (Home) - 55.0% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 82 - 10
Quad 415 - 417 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 19 @Tennessee L 56 - 95 3% -18  4% 0 - 1 F+ -18 D- -7 D A- F+ F -10 D- D C-
 Wed, Nov 12 135 @East Tennessee St. L 63 - 75 27% -8  0% 0 - 2 D+ -8 F -12 F F F B +5 F A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 20 266 @Central Michigan W 90 - 66 54% +13  99% 1 - 2 A +21 A+ +15 B+ A+ C+ A- +7 C F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 287 Eastern Kentucky W 82 - 71 78% +4  78% 2 - 2 C +1 D+ -3 D- A C B +4 C+ D B
 Wed, Nov 26 229 Wofford W 93 - 83 68% +2  61% 3 - 2 C+ +3 B +6 C+ B+ B+ D+ -4 B- C C
 Sat, Nov 29 258 Boston University W 74 - 65 73% -2  25% 4 - 2 C +1 C- -1 F A+ F B- +2 D D- A+
 Wed, Dec 3 316 Cleveland St. W 95 - 80 85% +8  95% 5 - 2 1 - 0 C+ +2 B +6 B+ A+ F D+ -4 F+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 259 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 77 - 79 52% +2  54% 5 - 3 1 - 1 C- -4 D -5 F+ D+ F C+ +1 F B A+
 Sat, Dec 13 292 @Bellarmine W 80 - 76 61% +6  75% 6 - 3 C -1 D -5 C- F+ B- B +5 D C A+
 Wed, Dec 17 163 Oakland L 77 - 82 55% -2  20% 6 - 4 1 - 2 D -8 D- -7 D- D+ B C- -2 C+ B+ C-
 Sun, Dec 21 147 College of Charleston L 74 - 85 51% -4  6% 6 - 5 D- -13 D -5 C D+ F D- -8 F D- A-
 Mon, Dec 29 161 @Robert Morris W 79 - 77 33% -1  47% 7 - 5 2 - 2 C+ +5 C+ +3 B- D C- C+ +1 C- F B+
 Thu, Jan 1 326 IU Indianapolis W 81 - 72 86% -3  25% 8 - 5 3 - 2 C- -4 D+ -3 C D A- C -1 C- F A
 Sun, Jan 4 204 Youngstown St. W 94 - 79 64% +15  98% 9 - 5 4 - 2 B +10 B +6 B+ B+ C+ C+ +1 A C F
 Fri, Jan 9 263 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 85 - 67 53% +13  95% 10 - 5 5 - 2 A- +15 A+ +15 D- A+ B B- +2 C+ D+ D+
 Sun, Jan 11 227 @Green Bay L 78 - 80 45% -13  0% 10 - 6 5 - 3 C- -3 A +11 C F A+ F -14 F D- D+
 Thu, Jan 15 254 Detroit Mercy W 96 - 71 72% +12  99% 11 - 6 6 - 3 A- +17 B+ +9 A+ C- B B+ +6 A F F
 Sat, Jan 17 161 Robert Morris L 89 - 92 OT 55% -3  17% 11 - 7 6 - 4 D+ -6 D+ -4 D+ D+ C- C- -2 C- F+ B-
 Sat, Jan 24 162 @Wright St. L 80 - 88 33% -9  7% 11 - 8 6 - 5 D+ -5 B- +4 A- C D- F+ -10 D- D+ D
 Fri, Jan 30 254 @Detroit Mercy L 77 - 90 51% -9  15% 11 - 9 6 - 6 F+ -15 C- -1 D F B+ F -14 F F A
 Sun, Feb 1 163 @Oakland L 65 - 76 33% -2  34% 11 - 10 6 - 7 D -8 F -18 F D- B- A +11 A+ F A-
 Wed, Feb 4 227 Green Bay L 84 - 87 OT 68% -3  23% 11 - 11 6 - 8 D -10 D+ -4 B- F A- D -5 C F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 263 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 67 - 62 74% +2  58% 12 - 11 7 - 8 C- -4 D- -6 D- C- D+ B- +3 C- C+ B
 Thu, Feb 12 326 @IU Indianapolis W 84 - 81 71% -6  13% 13 - 11 8 - 8 C- -4 C+ +3 B F+ D D- -7 D C- C-
 Wed, Feb 18 259 Purdue Fort Wayne W 87 - 71 74% +6  78% 14 - 11 9 - 8 B- +8 B +6 B+ F A- C+ +1 C- B B+
 Sun, Feb 22 204 @Youngstown St. L 58 - 64 41% -10  0% 14 - 12 9 - 9 D+ -5 F -19 F B- F A+ +14 B+ B+ A
 Wed, Feb 25 316 @Cleveland St. W 81 - 70 68% +14  97% 15 - 12 10 - 9 C+ +4 D -5 C- D+ F A +9 A+ F D+
 Sat, Feb 28 162 Wright St. W 76 - 75 55%
Totals 16 - 12 11 - 9 -2 C- -2 F D+ B- C +0 D C- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C D+ D D+ 39% 28% 46% B- C- C C C C- C- C- C- C C D+ D+ C- 41% 19% 40% C- C- D+ D D B D+ B D+
1.06 59% 35% 30% -3 +1 0.98 30% 1.0 .30 17% .29 71% .21 1.09 57% 40% 36% +1 0 1.06 33% 1.1 .37 20% .34 70% .20
Nov
8		 Tennessee D- C- D+ F F+ 39% 12% 49% A- D C+ A+ A- F+ D- F F F C F F F+ 37% 19% 44% C+ D- D- C D C- B F C
0.80 53% 33% 21% -12 +1 0.80 24% 1.3 .32 22% .24 38% .09 1.36 60% 60% 42% +10 0 1.22 52% 1.1 .55 17% .33 79% .26
Nov
12		 East Tennessee St. F D+ D- F F 38% 13% 49% C+ F B F F F D D+ D B D F F F 67% 12% 21% F F A+ A+ A+ A+ F B+ F
0.87 55% 29% 27% -8 +1 0.89 34% 0.4 .14 25% .26 71% .18 1.04 64% 60% 44% +10 +3 1.29 13% 0.7 .09 25% .50 70% .35
Nov
20		 Central Michigan A+ C- D A+ A- 37% 17% 46% C- B+ B- A+ A+ C+ F C- F A- C- F A+ C 35% 28% 37% C+ C F F F A+ F A D
1.32 58% 33% 46% +7 0 1.17 39% 1.5 .61 16% .23 69% .16 0.97 60% 50% 25% -1 -1 0.98 39% 1.3 .52 28% .36 61% .22
Nov
24		 Eastern Kentucky D+ A+ F D- D- 27% 22% 51% D+ D- D A+ A C C+ A+ B+ B D F A C+ 16% 24% 59% B C+ C- F+ D B F+ A D+
1.15 79% 27% 31% +1 -1 1.02 28% 1.7 .47 15% .35 86% .30 1.00 63% 50% 28% -2 -2 0.94 32% 1.3 .41 20% .33 63% .21
Nov
26		 Wofford B A- F D+ C+ 55% 22% 24% C C+ C A+ B+ B+ A+ C A+ D+ A- A+ F C+ 37% 26% 37% A B- D+ B- C C F D+ F
1.25 68% 27% 33% +3 +1 1.10 30% 1.4 .42 12% .52 76% .40 1.12 47% 25% 41% -3 -1 0.93 31% 0.9 .28 15% .68 74% .51
Nov
29		 Boston University C- D+ F F F 29% 20% 51% D+ F A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ B- F B- D D- 37% 29% 34% A D D+ F+ D- A+ F D+ F
1.19 54% 22% 26% -10 -1 0.80 50% 1.4 .69 18% .47 83% .39 1.04 79% 36% 38% +9 -1 1.18 29% 1.2 .33 26% .41 74% .30
Dec
3		 Cleveland St. B B B A+ A- 37% 17% 46% C B+ A- A- A+ F D- A+ C D+ A+ A+ F F 29% 15% 56% C F+ F F F A+ F D+ F
1.32 68% 44% 46% +13 0 1.29 44% 1.3 .56 20% .26 93% .24 1.12 42% 0% 57% +9 0 1.20 32% 1.4 .44 28% .54 79% .43
Dec
6		 Purdue Fort Wayne D C- D+ F+ F 30% 11% 59% C- F+ B- F D+ F B A+ A+ C+ C F+ F F 48% 22% 30% C+ F F A+ B A+ F B+ F
1.02 59% 33% 30% -4 +1 0.96 38% 0.9 .32 24% .31 94% .30 1.05 58% 45% 53% +10 +1 1.24 33% 0.5 .15 24% .38 64% .24
Dec
13		 Bellarmine D A- B D+ C- 41% 17% 43% B- C- D+ F F+ B- D F F B C+ F F D 45% 10% 45% D+ D F+ A+ C A+ B F D+
1.14 73% 44% 35% +8 +1 1.19 32% 0.9 .30 14% .28 47% .13 1.08 59% 60% 41% +7 +2 1.20 26% 0.9 .22 26% .25 100% .25
Dec
17		 Oakland D- A- F F F+ 40% 17% 43% B- D- D+ C- D+ B D B- D+ C- B D+ C C+ 45% 22% 33% C C+ C- A+ B+ C- F B+ F
1.06 70% 30% 24% -3 +1 0.97 33% 0.9 .30 14% .19 75% .14 1.13 52% 42% 33% -2 0 0.98 32% 0.8 .27 14% .46 69% .32
Dec
21		 College of Charleston D D+ B+ D+ C- 35% 14% 51% B+ C B F D+ F B+ A+ A+ D- C+ F C- F 43% 17% 39% D- F D+ D- D- A- F B+ F
1.00 56% 43% 31% -3 +1 0.98 36% 0.7 .26 23% .28 88% .25 1.15 60% 88% 33% +9 +1 1.22 32% 1.2 .39 20% .49 69% .34
Dec
29		 Robert Morris C+ A- C F B- 58% 17% 25% B+ B- F A+ D C- A D+ A- C+ C F B- C- 31% 21% 48% C+ C- D- F F B+ C- A+ B+
1.12 68% 38% 25% +2 +2 1.10 18% 1.2 .21 17% .46 74% .34 1.09 56% 55% 32% +1 -1 1.04 39% 1.3 .53 21% .25 50% .13
Jan
1		 IU Indianapolis D+ F F A+ C 42% 8% 50% C+ C F B+ D A- B- F D- C F D C+ D 15% 31% 54% A+ C- F+ F F A A- F B-
1.15 50% 0% 50% +5 +2 1.17 27% 1.3 .36 16% .42 60% .25 1.02 75% 44% 32% +3 -3 1.02 33% 1.3 .43 21% .11 100% .11
Jan
4		 Youngstown St. B D B- A+ B- 54% 10% 37% A B+ C- A+ B+ C+ A+ B A+ C+ A B- B+ A 35% 15% 50% C+ A B+ F+ C F F+ A+ C
1.20 54% 40% 47% +5 +3 1.17 30% 1.3 .40 18% .50 78% .39 1.01 48% 33% 30% -7 0 0.88 25% 1.2 .29 13% .34 57% .19
Jan
9		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee A+ B- A F F 39% 4% 57% B+ D- A+ A A+ B D A C B- D C- A+ B- 37% 20% 43% D+ C+ B- F D+ D+ F A+ D+
1.33 63% 50% 25% -5 +2 0.96 49% 1.4 .68 14% .29 81% .24 1.05 61% 40% 24% -5 0 0.92 29% 1.3 .37 14% .35 58% .20
Jan
11		 Green Bay A D+ D+ B C- 41% 12% 47% B+ C D F F A+ C B+ B- F F B+ F F 46% 13% 41% D- F F A D- D+ B+ A A
1.29 57% 33% 38% +2 +1 1.08 26% 0.9 .24 5% .35 80% .28 1.33 71% 33% 53% +17 +2 1.39 36% 0.9 .32 15% .29 67% .19
Jan
15		 Detroit Mercy B+ B- A+ A+ A+ 51% 9% 40% B+ A+ F+ A+ C- B A+ C+ A+ B+ A- B A A+ 24% 34% 42% C+ A C+ F F F A+ A+ A+
1.28 63% 60% 43% +10 +2 1.26 23% 1.4 .33 12% .47 74% .35 0.95 47% 33% 27% -9 -3 0.79 31% 1.3 .42 9% .13 33% .04
Jan
17		 Robert Morris D+ B F F D- 48% 10% 41% B+ D+ D+ C- D+ C- A+ D+ A+ C- B A+ D- C+ 44% 7% 48% F C- C+ F F+ B- F C+ F
1.06 64% 17% 25% -5 +2 0.97 26% 0.9 .24 17% .53 73% .38 1.09 50% 25% 38% -1 +2 1.04 34% 1.4 .47 19% .45 68% .31
Jan
24		 Wright St. B- A+ A+ F A 44% 20% 36% C+ A- D+ B- C D- D+ D D+ F+ D- B D- D- 51% 20% 29% D- D- F A- D+ D F F+ F
1.14 77% 70% 22% +8 0 1.20 28% 1.1 .31 20% .28 69% .20 1.25 65% 33% 38% +5 +1 1.13 40% 0.9 .37 14% .60 81% .48
Jan
30		 Detroit Mercy C- C+ A+ F D- 32% 7% 61% C+ D C F F B+ A F B- F C- D+ F F 30% 26% 43% F+ F F+ F F A F A+ F
1.09 61% 50% 26% -6 +1 0.93 32% 0.7 .23 11% .43 63% .27 1.28 57% 42% 60% +18 -1 1.35 38% 1.3 .48 21% .50 64% .32
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Oakland F F+ F F F 35% 10% 55% B+ F D- D D- B- D F D- A A+ F A+ A+ 56% 15% 30% F A+ D+ F F A- F+ B D
0.85 50% 33% 21% -14 +1 0.76 28% 0.9 .24 14% .20 62% .12 1.00 37% 63% 19% -15 +2 0.76 33% 1.7 .56 18% .39 71% .27
Feb
4		 Green Bay D+ D+ A+ C C+ 40% 9% 51% A- B- D- F F A- C- F D- D C A D C 47% 13% 40% D- C F F F A+ D+ B- C-
1.11 57% 80% 34% +3 +2 1.12 24% 0.8 .19 11% .33 64% .21 1.15 56% 29% 38% 0 +2 1.06 39% 1.5 .58 23% .38 73% .27
Feb
7		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee D- C+ C+ F+ D- 31% 12% 57% C- D- D+ B C- D+ A+ C A+ B- B A+ F C 43% 17% 39% F+ C- A+ F C+ B B+ B B+
1.07 62% 40% 29% -3 +1 0.98 26% 1.3 .32 18% .45 74% .33 0.99 50% 25% 39% -3 +1 0.98 23% 1.4 .32 18% .21 64% .14
Feb
12		 IU Indianapolis C+ A- F A+ B+ 47% 16% 38% C- B C+ F F+ D A+ F B+ D- B F F+ D 52% 24% 24% D- D F A+ C- C- F+ F F
1.19 71% 14% 47% +10 +1 1.24 38% 0.8 .32 21% .54 63% .34 1.15 54% 54% 38% +3 +1 1.09 42% 0.7 .31 16% .25 80% .20
Feb
18		 Purdue Fort Wayne B A F C+ B 52% 2% 46% A B+ D+ F F A- B F+ C+ C+ B- A+ D+ C+ 45% 4% 51% F C- B+ C B B+ F F F
1.22 71% 0% 36% +8 +3 1.24 31% 0.7 .23 15% .32 68% .22 1.00 55% 0% 36% -2 +3 1.04 16% 1.0 .16 18% .38 77% .29
Feb
22		 Youngstown St. F F D+ F F 43% 6% 51% A F B+ C- B- F C- F F A+ D- A+ A A- 41% 16% 43% C B+ B+ A- B+ A F A- F
0.78 32% 33% 23% -20 +2 0.67 37% 0.9 .35 24% .32 56% .18 0.87 67% 14% 26% -5 +1 0.93 25% 0.9 .22 24% .46 65% .30
Feb
25		 Cleveland St. D A+ F C- C- 33% 11% 57% C+ C- F A+ D+ F A+ D+ A+ A B A+ A+ A+ 43% 13% 44% F+ A+ B+ F F D+ D+ D- D
1.12 80% 20% 35% +6 +1 1.15 24% 1.4 .34 19% .45 73% .33 0.97 52% 14% 21% -14 +1 0.76 21% 1.9 .38 17% .35 81% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 18.3 18.3 4th
5th 29.6 29.6 5th
6th 19.0 7.2 26.2 6th
7th 25.9 25.9 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 45.0 55.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 55.0% 10.3% 10.3% 14.4 0.0 0.3 2.8 2.5 0.1 49.4
10-10 45.0% 8.4% 8.4% 15.2 0.0 0.4 2.4 1.0 41.2
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 14.7 90.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.7% 100.0% 14.4 0.1 4.8 48.8 44.0 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 9.7%
Lose Out 10.5%