Notre Dame
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.0 #71
Expected Predictive Rating +7.8 #76
Pace 63.2 #329
Improvement -2.9 #315

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #101 B C C C D+
Defense #52 A- A+ D- B- A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #280 1.26 #80 -0.4 #192
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #117 0.82 #94 +1.8 #86
Three Pointers 42% #162 1.11 #55 +2.5 #98
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #68 +4.0 #68
Freethrows 17.7 #169 74% #148 13.1 #149
Second Chance 34.4% #77 0.92 #320 0.32 #175
Turnovers 16.3% #159
Total Offense +2.8 #101

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% #355 1.10 #105 +6.8 #16
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #90 0.71 #126 -0.6 #223
Three Pointers 48% #22 0.90 #54 -1.1 #230
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #42 +5.1 #40
Freethrows 14.9 #67 75% #300 11.2 #273
Second Chance 21.5% #4 0.99 #107 0.21 #11
Turnovers 14.1% #318
Total Defense +5.1 #52

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #270 -2.3% #31
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.3% #51 -8.0% #51
Possession Length 17.9 #239 18.1 #302
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #186 0.15 #86
Improvement -2.9 #331 +0.0 #184

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.0% 13.6% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.8% 13.4% 4.5%
Average Seed 10.1 10.0 10.3
.500 or above 63.5% 80.2% 53.9%
.500 or above in Conference 23.0% 38.1% 14.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 0.9% 3.6%
First Four3.5% 5.4% 2.3%
First Round5.9% 10.4% 3.3%
Second Round1.9% 3.4% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Tech (Away) - 36.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 53 - 11
Quad 23 - 36 - 14
Quad 34 - 110 - 15
Quad 46 - 117 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 219 LIU Brooklyn W 89 - 67 90% +15  1 - 0 +16 +12 A A+ F +4 A+ A- C+
 Fri, Nov 7 273 Detroit Mercy W 102 - 70 94% +17  2 - 0 +23 +15 A- A+ A+ +5 C- A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 311 Eastern Illinois W 78 - 58 96% +7  3 - 0 +8 +15 C A+ C+ -4 D- A+ C
 Sun, Nov 16 36 @Ohio St. L 63 - 64 20% +3  3 - 1 +16 -0 B+ F F +16 A+ A+ C-
 Wed, Nov 19 294 Bellarmine W 86 - 79 95% +9  4 - 1 -4 +4 A- A+ F -7 D A+ B-
 Mon, Nov 24 18 Kansas L 61 - 71 20% -6  4 - 2 +7 +1 C+ F A+ +5 A- A C
 Tue, Nov 25 124 Rutgers W 68 - 63 71% +8  5 - 2 +7 +5 A A F +3 B D- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 5 Houston L 56 - 66 12% -12  5 - 3 +11 +5 D- C+ A+ +4 A+ F F
 Tue, Dec 2 53 Missouri W 76 - 71 53% -1  6 - 3 +12 +6 A- F D +6 A+ A+ C
 Fri, Dec 5 45 @TCU W 87 - 85 OT 26% -2  7 - 3 +17 +18 A+ F B -1 D A+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 194 Idaho W 80 - 65 89% +5  8 - 3 +10 +12 A B- C+ +0 C A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 251 Evansville W 82 - 58 93% +11  9 - 3 +16 +12 A+ D- C +5 C- A+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 237 Purdue Fort Wayne L 69 - 72 91% -4  9 - 4 -10 -7 F F D -3 C A+ F
 Tue, Dec 30 77 @Stanford W 47 - 40 41% +5  10 - 4 1 - 0 +17 -10 F C C- +29 A+ A+ F
 Fri, Jan 2 81 @California L 71 - 72 43% +2  10 - 5 1 - 1 +9 +11 B F A+ -2 A- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 33 Clemson L 61 - 76 38% -6  10 - 6 1 - 2 -4 +1 A+ C F -6 A D+ F
 Tue, Jan 13 35 Miami (FL) L 69 - 81 38% -5  10 - 7 1 - 3 -1 +3 A- B- F -4 C A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 64 @Virginia Tech L 68 - 72 36%
 Wed, Jan 21 29 @North Carolina L 66 - 76 18%
 Sat, Jan 24 151 Boston College W 71 - 60 84%
 Tue, Jan 27 17 Virginia L 65 - 71 28%
 Sat, Jan 31 61 @Syracuse L 68 - 72 35%
 Wed, Feb 4 19 @Louisville L 68 - 79 14%
 Sat, Feb 7 117 Florida St. W 80 - 72 78%
 Tue, Feb 10 30 @SMU L 69 - 79 19%
 Sat, Feb 14 111 Georgia Tech W 74 - 67 74%
 Sat, Feb 21 88 @Pittsburgh L 67 - 69 43%
 Tue, Feb 24 7 Duke L 66 - 76 18%
 Sat, Feb 28 24 North Carolina St. L 69 - 74 33%
 Wed, Mar 4 77 Stanford W 71 - 67 63%
 Sat, Mar 7 151 @Boston College W 68 - 63 67%
Totals 16 - 15 7 - 11 +8 +3 B C C +5 A- A+ D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.1 2.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.4 0.7 0.0 3.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.5 2.4 0.2 6.6 8th
9th 0.2 3.1 5.0 0.8 0.0 9.1 9th
10th 0.1 1.9 6.7 2.5 0.1 11.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 6.0 5.6 0.5 0.0 12.6 11th
12th 0.1 3.2 7.5 1.9 0.1 12.7 12th
13th 1.2 6.9 3.9 0.4 0.0 12.4 13th
14th 0.3 4.3 5.6 0.8 0.0 11.0 14th
15th 0.1 1.9 4.8 1.5 0.1 8.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.6 2.5 1.5 0.1 4.7 16th
17th 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.2 2.4 17th
18th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 18th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.0 5.9 12.2 17.9 20.3 18.3 12.4 6.8 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 28.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 7.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.1% 100.0% 3.8% 96.2% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 0.8% 82.7% 3.1% 79.6% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 82.2%
11-7 2.8% 63.3% 1.4% 61.9% 9.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 1.0 62.8%
10-8 6.8% 39.5% 0.9% 38.6% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.1 0.0 4.1 38.9%
9-9 12.4% 15.9% 0.2% 15.7% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 0.0 10.4 15.8%
8-10 18.3% 3.0% 0.1% 2.9% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 17.7 2.9%
7-11 20.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 20.2 0.4%
6-12 17.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 17.9 0.0%
5-13 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 12.1
4-14 5.9% 5.9
3-15 2.0% 2.0
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 8.0% 0.2% 7.7% 10.1 92.0 7.8%