Notre Dame
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.5#66
Expected Predictive Rating+8.0#74
Pace63.4#326
Improvement-1.9#323

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#78
First Shot+1.5#133
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#53
Layup/Dunks+2.6#87
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#317
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#189
Freethrows+1.7#87
Improvement-2.4#348

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#60
First Shot+4.1#61
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#167
Layups/Dunks+8.8#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#244
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#312
Freethrows-0.2#206
Improvement+0.5#141
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.2% 2.0% 0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.8% 26.0% 13.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 18.3% 25.5% 12.8%
Average Seed 9.3 9.2 9.5
.500 or above 67.6% 79.8% 58.2%
.500 or above in Conference 46.6% 52.9% 41.8%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.1% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 4.5% 3.3% 5.4%
First Four5.7% 7.2% 4.6%
First Round15.8% 22.2% 10.8%
Second Round7.1% 10.1% 4.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 2.1% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Missouri (Home) - 43.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 42 - 10
Quad 24 - 47 - 14
Quad 34 - 111 - 15
Quad 47 - 017 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 232 LIU Brooklyn W 89-67 92%     1 - 0 +14.8 +12.7 +1.9
  Fri, Nov 7 328 Detroit Mercy W 102-70 96%     2 - 0 +19.6 +14.9 +2.1
  Tue, Nov 11 329 Eastern Illinois W 78-58 96%     3 - 0 +7.6 +13.2 -2.6
  Sun, Nov 16 20 @Ohio St. L 63-64 18%     3 - 1 +17.2 +1.2 +16.0
  Wed, Nov 19 294 Bellarmine W 86-79 95%     4 - 1 -3.4 +4.8 -8.1
  Mon, Nov 24 18 Kansas L 61-71 23%     4 - 2 +6.3 +1.5 +4.2
  Tue, Nov 25 120 Rutgers W 68-63 70%     5 - 2 +7.9 +6.0 +2.5
  Wed, Nov 26 5 Houston L 56-66 15%     5 - 3 +9.7 +4.5 +3.2
  Tue, Dec 2 33 Missouri L 72-74 44%    
  Fri, Dec 5 51 @TCU L 66-71 33%    
  Wed, Dec 10 168 Idaho W 75-62 88%    
  Sat, Dec 13 291 Evansville W 77-58 96%    
  Sun, Dec 21 236 Purdue Fort Wayne W 81-65 93%    
  Tue, Dec 30 95 @Stanford L 72-73 50%    
  Fri, Jan 2 67 @California L 70-73 41%    
  Sat, Jan 10 38 Clemson L 67-68 48%    
  Tue, Jan 13 44 Miami (FL) L 71-72 49%    
  Sat, Jan 17 63 @Virginia Tech L 70-73 39%    
  Wed, Jan 21 26 @North Carolina L 69-78 22%    
  Sat, Jan 24 127 Boston College W 71-62 80%    
  Tue, Jan 27 39 Virginia L 69-70 48%    
  Sat, Jan 31 64 @Syracuse L 69-72 40%    
  Wed, Feb 4 9 @Louisville L 67-81 11%    
  Sat, Feb 7 55 Florida St. W 76-74 57%    
  Tue, Feb 10 42 @SMU L 71-77 28%    
  Sat, Feb 14 104 Georgia Tech W 71-64 73%    
  Sat, Feb 21 99 @Pittsburgh W 68-67 52%    
  Tue, Feb 24 2 Duke L 65-76 16%    
  Sat, Feb 28 29 North Carolina St. L 75-77 43%    
  Wed, Mar 4 95 Stanford W 75-69 70%    
  Sat, Mar 7 127 @Boston College W 68-65 61%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.7 3rd
4th 0.2 1.5 2.3 0.8 0.1 4.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.4 1.3 0.1 0.0 5.9 5th
6th 0.4 2.9 2.7 0.4 0.0 6.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 4.1 1.0 0.0 7.1 7th
8th 0.6 4.5 2.8 0.1 7.9 8th
9th 0.1 2.3 4.4 0.8 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 4.8 2.1 0.2 8.0 10th
11th 0.1 2.9 4.4 0.5 8.0 11th
12th 0.0 1.2 4.9 1.7 0.0 7.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 3.2 3.1 0.3 7.0 13th
14th 0.1 1.5 3.9 1.0 0.0 6.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.7 3.0 2.0 0.1 5.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.0 0.4 0.0 4.5 16th
17th 0.2 1.1 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.5 17th
18th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 2.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 4.6 7.5 10.8 13.0 14.2 13.9 11.9 9.0 5.8 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 81.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1
15-3 49.3% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 15.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 2.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 100.0% 10.9% 89.1% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.7% 99.0% 6.3% 92.7% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.0%
14-4 1.7% 96.0% 4.0% 92.0% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 95.8%
13-5 3.4% 89.2% 2.6% 86.6% 8.6 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.4 88.9%
12-6 5.8% 69.5% 2.6% 66.9% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.0 1.8 68.7%
11-7 9.0% 50.7% 0.7% 50.0% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 1.5 0.0 4.5 50.3%
10-8 11.9% 26.9% 0.5% 26.4% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.7 0.1 8.7 26.5%
9-9 13.9% 8.5% 0.5% 8.0% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.1 12.7 8.1%
8-10 14.2% 1.9% 0.1% 1.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 14.0 1.8%
7-11 13.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 13.0 0.2%
6-12 10.8% 10.8
5-13 7.5% 7.5
4-14 4.6% 4.6
3-15 2.2% 2.2
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 18.8% 0.6% 18.2% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.5 2.5 3.6 4.9 5.0 0.2 0.0 81.2 18.3%