Princeton
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.2 #221
Expected Predictive Rating -5.7 #253
Pace 66.2 #264
Improvement +5.8 #7

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #274 D+ D D C C
Defense #147 C+ C D+ C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #325 1.07 #289 -5.0 #333
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #252 0.72 #222 -1.7 #263
Three Pointers 50% #22 0.98 #222 +4.0 #54
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #246 -2.6 #246
Freethrows 16.9 #219 72% #191 12.2 #207
Second Chance 24.7% #325 1.08 #139 0.27 #285
Turnovers 18.3% #284
Total Offense -3.7 #274

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #97 1.18 #214 -2.3 #264
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #211 0.89 #338 -0.9 #243
Three Pointers 39% #238 0.84 #14 +4.5 #30
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #137 +1.3 #137
Freethrows 17.6 #198 74% #253 13.0 #153
Second Chance 26.3% #48 1.17 #317 0.31 #154
Turnovers 15.3% #254
Total Defense +0.5 #147

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #189 0.8% #241
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.1% #252 -3.4% #120
Possession Length 19.2 #341 16.6 #70
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.05 #365 0.19 #251
Improvement +2.5 #49 +3.2 #27

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 8.4% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 3.7% 8.4% 1.9%
.500 or above in Conference 61.3% 79.8% 53.7%
Conference Champion 8.6% 17.0% 5.1%
Last Place in Conference 9.7% 3.5% 12.2%
First Four3.7% 4.4% 3.4%
First Round4.9% 6.8% 4.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Harvard (Away) - 28.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 103 - 14
Quad 47 - 510 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 67 @Akron L 69 - 104 9% -20  0 - 1 -24 -9 C- F D+ -12 D- B F
 Tue, Nov 11 318 Bucknell W 73 - 63 81% +12  1 - 1 -2 -1 D D+ D -1 D- A+ B+
 Sat, Nov 15 18 @Kansas L 57 - 76 3% -6  1 - 2 +1 -6 D- C+ F +7 A- A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 198 @Iona L 69 - 89 35% -18  1 - 3 -19 -9 F F D+ -9 F D+ D-
 Thu, Nov 20 236 Northeastern W 70 - 57 65% +10  2 - 3 +6 -6 F A+ F +12 A+ C+ B
 Mon, Nov 24 114 Bradley L 64 - 88 25% -8  2 - 4 -20 -7 C A- F -13 F A+ D+
 Tue, Nov 25 140 Temple L 75 - 79 34% +1  2 - 5 -3 +3 A- D+ C -6 F A+ A-
 Wed, Nov 26 195 Vermont L 74 - 79 46% -7  2 - 6 -7 +5 B- C+ A+ -13 D F D
 Sun, Nov 30 175 Saint Joseph's L 58 - 60 42% -1  2 - 7 -3 -6 C C- F +3 A- F A+
 Wed, Dec 3 185 @Monmouth L 58 - 63 33% -3  2 - 8 -4 -10 C F F +6 B A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 6 259 @Loyola Chicago L 68 - 73 47% +1  2 - 9 -8 -1 F D- A -7 D+ F F
 Wed, Dec 10 241 Merrimack L 56 - 59 66% -2  2 - 10 -11 -8 F B- C+ -4 C+ A+ F
 Mon, Dec 22 140 @Temple L 61 - 65 24% -3  2 - 11 +0 -2 F D+ C- +2 B C C
 Tue, Dec 30 195 Vermont W 75 - 69 OT 58% +4  3 - 11 +1 +1 B F F +0 A+ F C
 Mon, Jan 5 206 Penn W 78 - 76 60% -1  4 - 11 1 - 0 -4 +5 A F C -8 A F A-
 Sat, Jan 10 94 Yale W 76 - 60 28% +2  5 - 11 2 - 0 +19 +6 B+ C F +14 A+ B D+
 Sat, Jan 17 162 @Harvard L 64 - 70 29%
 Mon, Jan 19 204 @Dartmouth L 71 - 75 36%
 Sat, Jan 24 248 Brown W 67 - 62 67%
 Fri, Jan 30 193 @Cornell L 81 - 85 35%
 Sat, Jan 31 163 @Columbia L 69 - 75 30%
 Sat, Feb 7 206 @Penn L 72 - 76 38%
 Fri, Feb 13 193 Cornell W 84 - 82 56%
 Sat, Feb 14 163 Columbia W 72 - 71 51%
 Fri, Feb 20 248 @Brown L 64 - 65 45%
 Fri, Feb 27 162 Harvard W 67 - 66 51%
 Sat, Feb 28 204 Dartmouth W 74 - 72 59%
 Sat, Mar 7 94 @Yale L 67 - 79 13%
Totals 10 - 18 7 - 7 -3 -4 D+ D D +1 C+ C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.7 3.1 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 8.6 1st
2nd 0.4 5.0 7.8 3.8 0.7 0.0 17.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 4.8 9.3 2.9 0.2 0.0 17.4 3rd
4th 0.0 3.1 9.9 3.1 0.1 16.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 8.9 4.2 0.2 14.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 6.0 5.0 0.3 12.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.7 4.0 0.5 8.8 7th
8th 0.5 1.5 2.0 0.3 4.3 8th
Total 0.5 2.1 6.6 11.8 17.6 19.6 17.8 12.5 7.1 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
12-2 95.9% 0.9    0.8 0.1
11-3 78.3% 2.5    1.6 0.9 0.0
10-4 43.4% 3.1    1.0 1.6 0.4 0.0
9-5 13.5% 1.7    0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
8-6 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 8.6% 8.6 3.7 3.4 1.1 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-1 0.2% 17.9% 17.9% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-2 1.0% 17.9% 17.9% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8
11-3 3.1% 18.8% 18.8% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 2.5
10-4 7.1% 13.8% 13.8% 15.6 0.4 0.6 6.1
9-5 12.5% 12.3% 12.3% 16.0 0.1 1.5 11.0
8-6 17.8% 10.3% 10.3% 16.0 0.0 1.8 15.9
7-7 19.6% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.8 18.9
6-8 17.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 17.5
5-9 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.8
4-10 6.6% 6.6
3-11 2.1% 2.1
2-12 0.5% 0.5
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 15.8 94.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%