Providence
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +8.2 #68
Expected Predictive Rating +5.0 #95
Pace 78.5 #16
Improvement +1.8 #91

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #38 A- B+ B+ B- B-
Defense #146 C+ B- C- B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #161 1.34 #27 +3.7 #64
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #293 0.77 #151 -1.9 #274
Three Pointers 46% #82 1.09 #91 +4.3 #45
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #43 +6.1 #43
Freethrows 18.2 #136 78% #36 14.2 #89
Second Chance 32.0% #141 1.23 #22 0.39 #58
Turnovers 14.3% #53
Total Offense +7.7 #38

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #253 1.01 #27 +4.2 #55
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #94 0.67 #76 -0.2 #191
Three Pointers 41% #197 1.13 #327 -2.3 #282
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #121 +1.7 #121
Freethrows 15.4 #88 74% #251 11.4 #255
Second Chance 29.9% #147 0.97 #91 0.29 #111
Turnovers 15.6% #240
Total Defense +0.5 #146

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #87 -1.1% #86
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.2% #39 -2.3% #142
Possession Length 14.8 #14 17.8 #270
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 #18 0.15 #112
Improvement +1.2 #109 +0.6 #144

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 6.5% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.3% 5.3% 1.6%
Average Seed 10.4 10.1 11.0
.500 or above 34.5% 48.2% 22.7%
.500 or above in Conference 17.1% 26.6% 8.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.3% 5.1% 14.7%
First Four1.9% 2.8% 1.1%
First Round3.3% 5.1% 1.8%
Second Round1.1% 1.7% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Creighton (Home) - 46.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 10
Quad 23 - 65 - 16
Quad 35 - 110 - 17
Quad 45 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 310 Holy Cross W 89 - 79 96% +10  1 - 0 -2 +2 D B- B+ -5 D- A+ C
 Sat, Nov 8 64 Virginia Tech L 101 - 107 OT 48% -0  1 - 1 +3 +11 B- B+ B -7 D+ D+ D
 Tue, Nov 11 206 Penn W 106 - 81 90% +10  2 - 1 +19 +16 A+ A+ F +0 A+ B F
 Fri, Nov 14 73 @Colorado L 88 - 97 40% -4  2 - 2 +2 +8 C D+ B+ -5 B F C-
 Tue, Nov 18 335 New Hampshire W 98 - 66 97% +13  3 - 2 +18 +21 A+ C A- -3 B F C+
 Sat, Nov 22 99 Penn St. W 77 - 65 62% +3  4 - 2 +17 +5 F A- A+ +12 A+ A B
 Thu, Nov 27 39 Wisconsin L 83 - 104 32% -14  4 - 3 -8 +4 B B+ C -9 C C- D-
 Fri, Nov 28 12 Florida L 78 - 90 14% -9  4 - 4 +8 +12 A+ D+ B+ -3 A+ C F
 Tue, Dec 2 351 Fairleigh Dickinson W 94 - 64 98% +23  5 - 4 +14 +19 A+ A C -3 C D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 123 Rhode Island W 90 - 71 80% +5  6 - 4 +18 +19 A+ A- C -1 F A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 9 248 Brown W 86 - 79 93% +6  7 - 4 -1 +7 B C D -8 C C F
 Sat, Dec 13 58 @Butler L 110 - 113 2OT 35% +0  7 - 5 0 - 1 +9 +23 A+ B+ A+ -13 C B F
 Fri, Dec 19 49 Seton Hall L 67 - 72 52% -3  7 - 6 0 - 2 +3 +3 C+ F A+ +0 C B+ A-
 Sat, Jan 3 15 @St. John's W 77 - 71 13% -4  8 - 6 1 - 2 +26 +9 F A+ A+ +17 A+ C+ B+
 Wed, Jan 7 4 Connecticut L 98 - 103 OT 17% +5  8 - 7 1 - 3 +13 +20 A+ A+ D -6 F A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 92 @Xavier L 84 - 97 47% -11  8 - 8 1 - 4 -4 +6 C C A+ -8 D B F
 Tue, Jan 13 34 Villanova L 82 - 88 39% -7  8 - 9 1 - 5 +5 +14 A+ A+ C+ -9 F A+ C-
 Fri, Jan 16 43 Creighton L 82 - 83 46%
 Mon, Jan 19 106 @Marquette W 84 - 83 52%
 Sat, Jan 24 100 Georgetown W 87 - 81 72%
 Tue, Jan 27 4 @Connecticut L 71 - 87 7%
 Fri, Jan 30 34 @Villanova L 74 - 83 21%
 Wed, Feb 4 58 Butler W 87 - 85 57%
 Sat, Feb 7 98 DePaul W 81 - 75 72%
 Wed, Feb 11 49 @Seton Hall L 73 - 79 30%
 Sat, Feb 14 15 St. John's L 83 - 89 28%
 Sat, Feb 21 98 @DePaul W 79 - 78 51%
 Tue, Feb 24 92 Xavier W 87 - 82 68%
 Sat, Feb 28 43 @Creighton L 79 - 86 26%
 Wed, Mar 4 106 Marquette W 87 - 80 73%
 Sat, Mar 7 100 @Georgetown W 84 - 83 50%
Totals 15 - 16 8 - 12 +8 +8 A- B+ B+ +1 C+ B- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.2 4th
5th 0.2 1.9 4.0 2.4 0.5 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 5.4 8.3 4.6 0.8 0.0 20.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 7.5 9.8 4.5 0.6 0.0 23.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 5.9 7.6 2.9 0.2 0.0 17.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.7 5.9 2.1 0.2 12.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.1 1.6 0.1 8.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.1 0.9 0.1 4.9 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.7 4.9 9.6 14.7 18.2 18.4 15.0 9.8 4.8 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.2% 96.8% 9.7% 87.1% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.4%
13-7 0.6% 77.3% 4.2% 73.1% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 76.3%
12-8 1.8% 47.2% 4.5% 42.7% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.9 44.7%
11-9 4.8% 25.9% 3.3% 22.6% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.0 3.5 23.4%
10-10 9.8% 9.6% 2.2% 7.5% 10.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 8.8 7.6%
9-11 15.0% 1.7% 1.1% 0.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 14.8 0.6%
8-12 18.4% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 11.3 0.1 0.1 18.3 0.0%
7-13 18.2% 0.7% 0.7% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 18.1
6-14 14.7% 0.4% 0.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.7
5-15 9.6% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 9.5
4-16 4.9% 0.3% 0.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 4.8
3-17 1.7% 1.7
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 4.3% 1.0% 3.3% 10.4 95.7 3.3%