Providence
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.6#75
Expected Predictive Rating+4.4#109
Pace83.4#9
Improvement+0.7#117

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#60
First Shot+2.1#114
After Offensive Rebound+3.5#25
Layup/Dunks+2.5#91
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#313
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#151
Freethrows+1.1#117
Improvement-1.4#310

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#107
First Shot+2.1#104
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#198
Layups/Dunks+1.8#115
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#113
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#229
Freethrows+0.3#166
Improvement+2.1#21
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 2.1% 0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.7% 23.0% 10.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 11.2% 21.2% 8.9%
Average Seed 9.3 8.9 9.5
.500 or above 45.9% 64.6% 41.7%
.500 or above in Conference 33.9% 41.9% 32.1%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.6% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 12.8% 8.4% 13.9%
First Four3.3% 4.8% 3.0%
First Round10.9% 20.4% 8.8%
Second Round4.8% 9.3% 3.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 2.1% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.8% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida (Neutral) - 18.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 52 - 10
Quad 24 - 57 - 15
Quad 34 - 111 - 17
Quad 45 - 016 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 330 Holy Cross W 89-79 96%     1 - 0 -2.7 +0.4 -4.1
  Sat, Nov 8 63 Virginia Tech L 101-107 OT 46%     1 - 1 +2.5 +10.1 -6.3
  Tue, Nov 11 223 Penn W 106-81 90%     2 - 1 +18.2 +16.0 -0.6
  Fri, Nov 14 72 @Colorado L 88-97 38%     2 - 2 +1.8 +7.4 -4.6
  Tue, Nov 18 354 New Hampshire W 98-66 98%     3 - 2 +16.1 +20.5 -4.1
  Sat, Nov 22 100 Penn St. W 77-65 61%     4 - 2 +16.8 +3.4 +13.3
  Thu, Nov 27 27 Wisconsin L 83-104 27%     4 - 3 -7.0 +3.5 -7.5
  Fri, Nov 28 17 Florida L 81-91 19%    
  Tue, Dec 2 362 Fairleigh Dickinson W 97-72 99%    
  Sat, Dec 6 106 Rhode Island W 86-80 73%    
  Tue, Dec 9 254 Brown W 84-68 93%    
  Sat, Dec 13 47 @Butler L 82-88 29%    
  Fri, Dec 19 76 Seton Hall W 77-74 62%    
  Sat, Jan 3 15 @St. John's L 82-95 12%    
  Wed, Jan 7 8 Connecticut L 76-85 22%    
  Sat, Jan 10 85 @Xavier L 82-84 43%    
  Tue, Jan 13 41 Villanova L 77-78 45%    
  Fri, Jan 16 45 Creighton L 81-82 48%    
  Mon, Jan 19 73 @Marquette L 84-87 38%    
  Sat, Jan 24 79 Georgetown W 84-81 62%    
  Tue, Jan 27 8 @Connecticut L 73-88 10%    
  Fri, Jan 30 41 @Villanova L 74-81 26%    
  Wed, Feb 4 47 Butler W 86-85 51%    
  Sat, Feb 7 109 DePaul W 85-78 73%    
  Wed, Feb 11 76 @Seton Hall L 74-77 40%    
  Sat, Feb 14 15 St. John's L 85-92 27%    
  Sat, Feb 21 109 @DePaul W 82-81 53%    
  Tue, Feb 24 85 Xavier W 85-81 64%    
  Sat, Feb 28 45 @Creighton L 79-85 28%    
  Wed, Mar 4 73 Marquette W 87-84 60%    
  Sat, Mar 7 79 @Georgetown L 81-84 41%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.2 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 6.7 3rd
4th 0.2 1.6 3.6 2.9 0.9 0.2 9.3 4th
5th 0.2 1.9 4.8 3.3 0.8 0.1 11.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.3 5.5 3.7 0.8 0.1 12.5 6th
7th 0.2 2.1 5.6 4.2 0.7 0.1 12.9 7th
8th 0.2 2.1 5.3 4.0 0.9 0.0 12.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.1 4.2 0.7 0.0 12.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 4.1 2.8 0.7 0.0 10.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.9 2.4 1.3 0.4 7.6 11th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.6 5.1 8.0 10.5 12.6 12.8 12.7 10.9 8.6 6.2 4.0 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
17-3 79.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1
16-4 56.0% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 21.9% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.2% 100.0% 11.3% 88.7% 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.6% 98.9% 12.6% 86.3% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 98.7%
15-5 1.2% 95.6% 15.9% 79.7% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 94.8%
14-6 2.2% 84.7% 7.6% 77.1% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.3 83.4%
13-7 4.0% 67.8% 5.6% 62.3% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.4 1.3 66.0%
12-8 6.2% 43.7% 3.8% 39.9% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.0 3.5 41.5%
11-9 8.6% 23.4% 2.7% 20.7% 10.3 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.1 6.6 21.3%
10-10 10.9% 9.0% 2.3% 6.7% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 9.9 6.9%
9-11 12.7% 2.6% 1.3% 1.3% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 12.4 1.3%
8-12 12.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.7 0.0%
7-13 12.6% 0.4% 0.4% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.6
6-14 10.5% 0.1% 0.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.5
5-15 8.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 8.0
4-16 5.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.1
3-17 2.6% 2.6
2-18 1.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.4
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 12.7% 1.8% 11.0% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.4 3.4 2.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 87.3 11.2%