Samford
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.7#221
Expected Predictive Rating-3.0#219
Pace69.2#200
Improvement+0.2#156

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#175
First Shot-2.0#229
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#92
Layup/Dunks-3.8#304
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#245
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#78
Freethrows-0.2#185
Improvement-1.5#317

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#282
First Shot-5.2#329
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#66
Layups/Dunks-2.2#261
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#349
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#198
Freethrows+0.9#132
Improvement+1.8#31
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.5% 10.7% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.5 15.2
.500 or above 50.9% 75.7% 49.4%
.500 or above in Conference 67.8% 79.5% 67.1%
Conference Champion 8.7% 15.1% 8.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 1.2% 2.3%
First Four1.6% 0.8% 1.6%
First Round7.7% 10.2% 7.6%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Away) - 5.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 63 - 11
Quad 413 - 515 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 152 @Tulane L 72-85 26%     0 - 1 -10.1 +2.9 -14.0
  Fri, Nov 7 347 South Carolina St. W 82-72 84%     1 - 1 -4.6 +1.6 -6.5
  Wed, Nov 12 307 @Texas Southern W 93-90 OT 55%     2 - 1 -1.9 +9.0 -11.3
  Fri, Nov 14 25 @Arkansas L 75-79 4%     2 - 2 +13.2 +8.1 +5.2
  Sun, Nov 16 317 @Central Arkansas W 84-77 OT 57%     3 - 2 +1.6 +3.0 -1.9
  Wed, Nov 19 164 Florida Gulf Coast L 62-77 50%     3 - 3 -18.7 -13.3 -5.8
  Fri, Nov 21 108 @New Mexico St. L 72-81 16%     3 - 4 -2.1 +13.0 -16.2
  Tue, Nov 25 337 Georgia St. W 78-63 75%     4 - 4 +4.3 +2.2 +2.0
  Wed, Nov 26 89 Utah Valley L 45-89 18%     4 - 5 -38.0 -25.8 -10.2
  Fri, Dec 5 53 @Virginia Commonwealth L 67-84 6%    
  Sun, Dec 7 161 Cornell L 81-82 50%    
  Thu, Jan 1 342 @VMI W 78-74 66%    
  Sat, Jan 3 287 @UNC Greensboro W 75-74 50%    
  Wed, Jan 7 278 Western Carolina W 79-73 70%    
  Sat, Jan 10 188 @Chattanooga L 72-77 33%    
  Wed, Jan 14 160 Furman L 72-73 50%    
  Sat, Jan 17 137 East Tennessee St. L 71-73 42%    
  Wed, Jan 21 225 @Wofford L 75-78 40%    
  Sat, Jan 24 188 Chattanooga W 75-74 54%    
  Thu, Jan 29 160 @Furman L 70-76 29%    
  Sat, Jan 31 278 @Western Carolina L 76-77 49%    
  Thu, Feb 5 358 The Citadel W 80-67 88%    
  Sat, Feb 7 206 Mercer W 81-79 58%    
  Wed, Feb 11 225 Wofford W 78-75 61%    
  Sat, Feb 14 137 @East Tennessee St. L 68-76 23%    
  Thu, Feb 19 358 @The Citadel W 77-70 74%    
  Sat, Feb 21 206 @Mercer L 78-82 37%    
  Thu, Feb 26 342 VMI W 81-71 82%    
  Sat, Feb 28 287 UNC Greensboro W 77-71 71%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.6 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 8.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 4.1 4.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 12.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.0 5.8 4.8 1.4 0.1 0.0 14.2 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 6.0 4.9 1.3 0.0 14.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.3 6.0 4.9 1.2 0.0 14.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.5 4.4 1.0 0.0 13.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.3 3.0 0.7 0.0 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.5 0.8 0.2 3.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.4 5.8 9.0 11.4 13.5 14.0 13.4 10.8 7.7 4.7 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 98.1% 0.9    0.8 0.1
15-3 86.1% 2.2    1.7 0.5 0.0
14-4 55.8% 2.6    1.4 1.1 0.2
13-5 25.3% 2.0    0.5 1.0 0.5 0.1
12-6 6.2% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.7% 8.7 4.7 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 33.3% 33.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-2 0.9% 33.7% 33.7% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.6
15-3 2.6% 26.4% 26.4% 14.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.9
14-4 4.7% 22.8% 22.8% 14.5 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 3.6
13-5 7.7% 16.7% 16.7% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 6.5
12-6 10.8% 13.8% 13.8% 15.2 0.2 0.8 0.5 9.3
11-7 13.4% 10.6% 10.6% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 12.0
10-8 14.0% 7.0% 7.0% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.6 13.0
9-9 13.5% 4.8% 4.8% 15.9 0.1 0.6 12.9
8-10 11.4% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3 11.1
7-11 9.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 8.8
6-12 5.8% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 5.7
5-13 3.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.4
4-14 1.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.6
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.3 3.3 91.5 0.0%