Samford
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.6 #240
Expected Predictive Rating -3.7 #226
Pace 68.5 #208
Improvement -0.9 #235

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #182 D+ F A+ C C
Defense #296 C- C F C+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #254 1.20 #121 -0.8 #211
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #195 0.63 #321 -1.6 #258
Three Pointers 45% #113 0.89 #319 -0.9 #225
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #271 -3.3 #270
Freethrows 19.4 #86 66% #334 12.9 #165
Second Chance 25.3% #319 0.93 #311 0.23 #338
Turnovers 12.9% #16
Total Offense -0.6 #182

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #162 1.07 #82 +1.2 #133
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #18 0.84 #305 -4.2 #362
Three Pointers 32% #353 1.17 #344 +1.8 #115
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #218 -1.1 #219
Freethrows 15.5 #92 76% #319 11.8 #229
Second Chance 28.5% #103 1.16 #308 0.33 #203
Turnovers 12.5% #358
Total Defense -4.0 #296

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.1% #200 -1.8% #52
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.4% #275 4.1% #259
Possession Length 17.7 #211 17.1 #161
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #327 0.17 #175
Improvement +0.5 #153 -1.3 #266

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.2% 7.0% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 44.7% 61.7% 32.7%
.500 or above in Conference 60.1% 76.9% 48.3%
Conference Champion 1.9% 3.8% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.4% 2.0%
First Four1.1% 1.0% 1.2%
First Round4.6% 6.5% 3.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Furman (Home) - 41.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 62 - 10
Quad 413 - 615 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 158 @Tulane L 72 - 85 23% -6  0 - 1 -10 +6 C- B C+ -17 F A+ D
 Fri, Nov 7 361 South Carolina St. W 82 - 72 90% +1  1 - 1 -8 -1 F F B -8 D+ C- F
 Wed, Nov 12 334 @Texas Southern W 93 - 90 OT 63% -1  2 - 1 -5 +9 D C- A- -14 F A+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 26 @Arkansas L 75 - 79 3% -8  2 - 2 +14 +6 C+ F A+ +8 A A+ C
 Sun, Nov 16 265 @Central Arkansas W 84 - 77 OT 43% -3  3 - 2 +4 +4 C F A+ -1 C+ A D-
 Wed, Nov 19 201 Florida Gulf Coast L 62 - 77 53% -9  3 - 3 -20 -15 F F B+ -6 C- F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 139 @New Mexico St. L 72 - 81 21% -10  3 - 4 -5 +11 D+ C A+ -17 F F F
 Tue, Nov 25 290 Georgia St. W 78 - 63 61% +7  4 - 4 +8 +4 C B F +4 A+ D F
 Wed, Nov 26 101 Utah Valley L 45 - 89 18% -23  4 - 5 -39 -26 F F D- -11 D- C F
 Fri, Dec 5 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 57 - 83 6% -7  4 - 6 -12 -10 F F A -2 C C B
 Sun, Dec 7 193 Cornell W 93 - 90 52% -3  5 - 6 -2 +3 C+ D C -5 A+ F F
 Thu, Jan 1 339 @VMI W 78 - 58 64% +4  6 - 6 1 - 0 +12 +4 B F A+ +9 B- A C-
 Sat, Jan 3 288 @UNC Greensboro L 82 - 89 49% -8  6 - 7 1 - 1 -11 +11 C C+ A -22 F F F
 Wed, Jan 7 291 Western Carolina W 82 - 77 72% -6  7 - 7 2 - 1 -5 +7 C C A+ -13 A- F F
 Sat, Jan 10 267 @Chattanooga L 79 - 88 44% -14  7 - 8 2 - 2 -12 +0 C F A+ -12 D C+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 147 Furman L 72 - 74 41%
 Sat, Jan 17 119 East Tennessee St. L 72 - 76 35%
 Wed, Jan 21 228 @Wofford L 76 - 80 36%
 Sat, Jan 24 267 Chattanooga W 77 - 73 65%
 Thu, Jan 29 147 @Furman L 69 - 77 22%
 Sat, Jan 31 291 @Western Carolina L 77 - 78 50%
 Thu, Feb 5 358 The Citadel W 81 - 68 89%
 Sat, Feb 7 153 Mercer L 79 - 81 43%
 Wed, Feb 11 228 Wofford W 79 - 77 57%
 Sat, Feb 14 119 @East Tennessee St. L 69 - 79 17%
 Thu, Feb 19 358 @The Citadel W 78 - 71 75%
 Sat, Feb 21 153 @Mercer L 76 - 84 24%
 Thu, Feb 26 339 VMI W 81 - 71 81%
 Sat, Feb 28 288 UNC Greensboro W 80 - 74 69%
Totals 14 - 15 9 - 9 -5 -1 D+ F A+ -4 C- C F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 2.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 6.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.0 5.2 3.2 0.5 0.0 11.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.4 8.7 5.3 0.6 0.0 18.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 5.4 10.0 6.3 0.9 0.0 23.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 4.5 8.3 4.9 0.5 0.0 18.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.5 2.9 0.4 0.0 12.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 2.9 1.6 0.2 6.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.8 6.7 12.2 17.2 18.8 17.6 12.4 7.0 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 83.8% 0.2    0.1 0.0
14-4 68.5% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.0
13-5 23.4% 0.7    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 24.3% 24.3% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 1.0% 20.0% 20.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8
13-5 3.1% 13.9% 13.9% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.7
12-6 7.0% 10.4% 10.4% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 6.2
11-7 12.4% 8.2% 8.2% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 11.4
10-8 17.6% 6.4% 6.4% 15.6 0.0 0.5 0.6 16.5
9-9 18.8% 4.6% 4.6% 15.7 0.2 0.7 18.0
8-10 17.2% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4 16.7
7-11 12.2% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 11.9
6-12 6.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.7
5-13 2.8% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 2.8
4-14 0.9% 0.9
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 15.4 94.8 0.0%