Samford
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -2.0 195
Results Rating -2.6 211
Consistency 0.17 281
Pace 68.0 193
Improvement +5.9 19

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 148 C- D B+ B- C-
Defense D+ 255 C- C+ D- C A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 304 B- 62% 88 -1.2 229
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 225 D+ 35% 278 -0.7 218
Three Pointers 45% 88 D+ 32% 283 +0.6 157
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.3 226 C- -1.0 210
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 214
Second Chance D- 23.8% 338 C+ 1.07 123 D 0.25 311
Opponents' Steals A- 7.2% 17
Other Turnovers B- 6.4% 71
Turnovers B+ 13.6% 23
Freethrows B+ 0.36 27 D 69% 303 B- 0.25 88
Total Offense C +0.7 148

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 52% 119 D+ 12.5% 273
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 14% 337 C 5.2% 198
Three Pointers C+ 86% 134 B- 0.5% 88
Total C+ 57% 142 C 5.6% 189

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 247 C 58% 179 -1.1 131
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 11 D 42% 323 +4.7 364
Three Pointers 34% 351 D+ 36% 280 -2.6 68
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- -1.3 23 D+ +2.3 274
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 211
Second Chance B 26.5% 54 D 1.12 301 C+ 0.30 139
Turnovers from Steals F+ 6.3% 352
Other Turnovers C- 7.0% 217
Turnovers D- 13.3% 346
Freethrows C+ 0.29 148 D 75% 310 C 0.22 167
Total Defense D+ -2.7 255

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 102 D 7.8% 309
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 182 C+ 5.4% 126
Three Pointers B+ 77% 25 D+ 0.3% 303
Total B+ 48% 33 D+ 4.6% 252

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.5 199 17.3 179
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 324 0.16 146
Consistency 0.12 163 0.14 296
Improvement +3.2 43 +2.8 54

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 214 191 167
Results Rating Rank 237 209 149
Conference Record 10 - 8 11 - 7 11 - 7
Conference Finish 5 3 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13% 13% 10%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.7 15.5
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 1%
First Round12% 13% 10%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: UNC Greensboro (Home) - 80.2% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 33 - 64 - 10
Quad 413 - 517 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 180 @Tulane L 72 - 85 36% -6  16% 0 - 1 D -11 C+ +3 C- B+ C+ F -16 F A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 7 357 South Carolina St. W 82 - 72 93% +1  44% 1 - 1 D -9 D+ -4 F+ D- B+ D -5 C- D D-
 Wed, Nov 12 307 @Texas Southern W 93 - 90 OT 64% -1  30% 2 - 1 C- -3 B +6 D B- B+ F+ -9 F A F
 Fri, Nov 14 15 @Arkansas L 75 - 79 2% -8  1% 2 - 2 A +18 B- +4 B- D A+ A+ +14 A A+ C+
 Sun, Nov 16 173 @Central Arkansas W 84 - 77 OT 35% -3  17% 3 - 2 B +9 C+ +3 C- F A+ B+ +5 B- B+ D+
 Wed, Nov 19 257 Florida Gulf Coast L 62 - 77 73% -9  6% 3 - 3 F -23 F -17 F F+ B- D- -7 D- F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 176 @New Mexico St. L 72 - 81 35% -10  4% 3 - 4 D+ -7 B- +5 D- C+ A+ F -13 F F F
 Tue, Nov 25 296 Georgia St. W 78 - 63 72% +7  90% 4 - 4 B- +7 C +1 C- B+ F+ B+ +6 A+ D- D
 Wed, Nov 26 96 Utah Valley L 45 - 89 23% -23  1% 4 - 5 F -38 F -28 F F+ D+ D- -8 F+ C D
 Fri, Dec 5 49 @Virginia Commonwealth L 57 - 83 7% -7  40% 4 - 6 D- -12 F -13 F F B+ C+ +1 C- C B-
 Sun, Dec 7 165 Cornell W 93 - 90 55% -3  23% 5 - 6 C -0 C+ +2 B C C C- -2 A+ D F
 Thu, Jan 1 359 @VMI W 78 - 58 86% +4  46% 6 - 6 1 - 0 B- +7 D+ -2 B- F A A +10 B+ B+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 298 @UNC Greensboro L 82 - 89 62% -8  1% 6 - 7 1 - 1 D- -12 B +7 C- C+ A F -19 D- F F
 Wed, Jan 7 244 Western Carolina W 82 - 77 71% -6  10% 7 - 7 2 - 1 C- -3 B- +4 C C A D -6 A- F D
 Sat, Jan 10 282 @Chattanooga L 79 - 88 58% -14  1% 7 - 8 2 - 2 D- -13 D+ -2 C+ F B+ F -10 D+ B- F
 Wed, Jan 14 171 Furman L 73 - 77 58% -2  32% 7 - 9 2 - 3 D+ -8 D+ -3 C- D B- D+ -4 C C+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 135 East Tennessee St. L 75 - 76 48% -5  2% 7 - 10 2 - 4 C- -3 A- +11 B+ D A+ F -14 F+ C F
 Wed, Jan 21 229 @Wofford L 78 - 88 46% -1  28% 7 - 11 2 - 5 D -11 B- +5 C+ C B+ F -17 F C- F+
 Sat, Jan 24 282 Chattanooga W 75 - 64 78% +1  52% 8 - 11 3 - 5 C +1 B- +4 D F+ A+ C -1 C C+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 171 @Furman L 73 - 78 35% -4  8% 8 - 12 3 - 6 C- -3 B +6 D B+ A+ F+ -9 F F B
 Sun, Feb 1 244 @Western Carolina W 88 - 74 49% +8  89% 9 - 12 4 - 6 B+ +12 B +7 B C D+ B+ +5 A- A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 349 The Citadel W 78 - 64 91% +6  96% 10 - 12 5 - 6 C- -2 C +1 B F C- C- -2 C F C-
 Sat, Feb 7 181 Mercer W 69 - 49 59% +15  94% 11 - 12 6 - 6 A- +16 D- -6 D+ F B A+ +23 A+ A+ D-
 Wed, Feb 11 229 Wofford W 97 - 80 68% +13  95% 12 - 12 7 - 6 B +10 A +12 A+ A- D- C- -2 C B+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 135 @East Tennessee St. W 82 - 72 OT 27% +2  58% 13 - 12 8 - 6 B+ +14 C+ +3 F A A+ A +11 A B- C
 Thu, Feb 19 349 @The Citadel W 78 - 75 79% +5  74% 14 - 12 9 - 6 D+ -7 D+ -3 B F F+ D+ -4 C- C- F
 Sat, Feb 21 181 @Mercer L 86 - 89 36% -2  19% 14 - 13 9 - 7 C -1 B+ +9 D+ C- A+ F -10 F B+ B-
 Thu, Feb 26 359 VMI W 80 - 61 94% +2  54% 15 - 13 10 - 7 C -0 C- -1 B- F+ B+ B- +2 C+ C D+
 Sat, Feb 28 298 UNC Greensboro W 84 - 75 80%
Totals 16 - 13 11 - 7 -2 C +1 A C- C- D+ -3 D+ D B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C B- D+ D+ C- 34% 34% 45% C- C- D- C+ D B+ B+ D B- D+ C D D+ D+ 37% 30% 34% A- C- B D C+ D- C+ D C
1.10 62% 35% 32% -1 0 0.99 24% 1.1 .25 14% .36 69% .25 1.12 58% 42% 36% +2 -1 1.04 27% 1.1 .30 13% .29 75% .27
Nov
3		 Tulane C+ D+ F A- C+ 25% 27% 48% F+ C- B- B+ B+ C+ C F D F F+ F F F 29% 29% 41% A+ F A+ A- A+ D- A+ F A
1.11 54% 29% 40% +1 -2 1.00 37% 1.1 .41 17% .31 59% .18 1.31 67% 60% 52% +20 -2 1.39 9% 1.0 .09 12% .23 92% .21
Nov
7		 South Carolina St. D+ F F B- F 48% 4% 48% B F+ F A D- B+ A+ F A+ D A+ F B- D+ 21% 42% 37% A C- A+ F D D- C+ F F+
1.14 50% 0% 36% -4 +3 1.00 26% 1.4 .38 14% .60 65% .39 1.00 36% 50% 32% -1 -4 0.92 19% 1.8 .34 18% .30 83% .25
Nov
12		 Texas Southern B F A+ D+ D- 37% 8% 55% B- D F A+ B- B+ A+ D+ A+ F+ C- B+ F F 39% 36% 25% A- F A+ C+ A F C B C+
1.20 47% 75% 32% -3 +2 1.00 20% 2.0 .40 13% .65 68% .44 1.16 58% 32% 67% +10 -2 1.18 16% 1.0 .16 8% .29 67% .20
Nov
14		 Arkansas B- C- D+ C C+ 39% 20% 41% C+ B- D D+ D A+ F A+ D A+ A D- D- B+ 31% 41% 28% A+ A A+ A+ A+ C+ D+ C- D+
1.04 54% 33% 32% -4 0 0.95 24% 1.1 .26 11% .16 90% .14 1.10 53% 45% 40% +4 -3 1.04 24% 0.8 .19 12% .35 77% .27
Nov
16		 Central Arkansas C+ A+ F C C 22% 14% 64% D C- D- F F A+ C- C C- B+ D A+ C+ B- 45% 24% 31% C+ B- D A+ B+ D+ F A+ C-
1.12 85% 13% 34% +3 0 1.07 21% 0.9 .19 9% .26 72% .19 1.02 65% 14% 33% -3 0 0.97 30% 0.7 .21 15% .36 57% .20
Nov
19		 Florida Gulf Coast F F A+ F F 36% 22% 42% D+ F C+ F F+ B- B+ F D- D- B+ F D F 38% 40% 23% A- D- F C- F A+ D+ A- C
0.90 39% 55% 24% -10 0 0.82 32% 0.7 .21 15% .41 54% .22 1.12 50% 63% 36% +8 -3 1.13 42% 1.1 .45 25% .29 67% .19
Nov
21		 New Mexico St. B- B B F D- 27% 20% 53% C- D- D A+ C+ A+ C- C C- F F+ D+ F F 36% 34% 30% B- F C F F F C D+ C-
1.16 64% 40% 22% -7 -1 0.86 26% 1.4 .37 5% .35 76% .27 1.30 67% 41% 47% +10 -2 1.18 32% 1.3 .43 10% .28 75% .21
Nov
25		 Georgia St. C B+ F D- D+ 42% 12% 47% B C- D+ A+ B+ F+ A+ D A+ B+ A+ A- A+ A+ 27% 14% 59% F A+ F+ C- D- D F F F
1.11 67% 20% 30% -1 +1 1.02 31% 1.3 .41 20% .61 68% .41 0.90 29% 29% 17% -25 0 0.53 33% 1.1 .35 14% .45 89% .40
Nov
26		 Utah Valley F F F F F 34% 21% 45% C- F C F F+ D+ F F F D- D+ C- F F+ 64% 14% 21% D F+ B+ F+ C D B F C
0.61 22% 27% 25% -21 0 0.60 30% 0.6 .18 22% .21 42% .09 1.21 64% 38% 42% +6 +3 1.20 32% 1.2 .39 18% .25 80% .20
Dec
5		 Virginia Commonwealth F A- F F F 38% 25% 37% D+ F F F F B+ B- D+ C+ C+ A C- F D+ 40% 13% 46% C+ C- F+ A- C B- C A+ A-
0.81 65% 23% 11% -14 -1 0.73 20% 0.7 .14 14% .32 68% .22 1.18 48% 43% 46% +5 +1 1.13 40% 0.9 .38 17% .38 59% .22
Dec
7		 Cornell C+ A+ B+ F B+ 41% 22% 37% D+ B D- A+ C C A+ C- A+ C- A+ D- B- A 27% 23% 50% A+ A+ F+ C+ D F C B+ B-
1.21 86% 45% 26% +9 0 1.20 24% 1.4 .33 14% .50 70% .35 1.17 44% 47% 33% -2 -1 0.95 37% 1.1 .41 12% .28 68% .19
Jan
1		 VMI D+ A+ F A+ B 31% 25% 44% D B- F F F A A+ F B+ A F C A+ B- 17% 31% 52% A+ B+ C+ A B+ D A- D B+
1.16 93% 17% 43% +11 -1 1.23 26% 0.3 .08 12% .46 59% .27 0.86 67% 35% 21% -9 -3 0.78 24% 0.7 .17 15% .21 75% .16
Jan
3		 UNC Greensboro B A+ F F C- 31% 14% 55% C+ C- C B- C+ A A+ F B+ F A C+ F F 32% 44% 24% A+ D- D+ F F F F D F
1.26 87% 29% 30% +4 0 1.10 31% 1.2 .36 9% .40 58% .24 1.36 44% 36% 67% +6 -3 1.08 29% 1.4 .40 3% .47 73% .35
Jan
7		 Western Carolina B- D B A- C 37% 21% 42% C- C C- B C A B- A+ A D A- A+ F A 52% 28% 20% C A- F F F D F F F
1.22 53% 45% 41% +4 0 1.10 26% 1.1 .29 10% .35 90% .31 1.14 46% 21% 40% -9 0 0.84 41% 1.5 .59 15% .44 88% .38
Jan
10		 Chattanooga D+ A+ F D+ C+ 42% 17% 42% C+ C+ F B- F B+ A+ F A+ F B C- F+ C- 50% 20% 30% F+ D+ A+ F B- F F+ F F
1.08 77% 11% 32% +2 +1 1.08 14% 1.2 .17 11% .55 61% .34 1.20 53% 42% 39% +1 +1 1.05 9% 2.0 .18 4% .34 92% .31
Jan
14		 Furman D+ B+ F F D 46% 15% 38% B+ C- F A+ D B- A+ A A+ D+ C F A C- 27% 24% 49% A+ C F+ A+ C+ F B- C C+
1.04 63% 25% 25% -5 +1 0.94 18% 1.3 .24 13% .38 78% .29 1.10 60% 69% 26% +2 -1 1.04 37% 0.7 .27 14% .27 69% .18
Jan
17		 East Tennessee St. A- F+ A+ A+ A 24% 16% 60% D B+ F A D A+ D- A+ C- F F C F F 31% 44% 24% A+ F+ A+ F C F C F F+
1.25 50% 50% 43% +8 0 1.18 19% 1.2 .22 10% .24 85% .20 1.26 79% 40% 45% +11 -4 1.18 17% 1.8 .30 10% .31 94% .30
Jan
21		 Wofford B- A- A+ F C+ 41% 12% 47% C+ C+ D+ B C B+ D- C+ D- F F F F F 55% 19% 26% D+ F A+ F C- F+ F D F
1.19 67% 67% 29% +3 +1 1.12 27% 1.3 .33 12% .24 79% .19 1.34 69% 56% 50% +16 +1 1.36 14% 2.0 .29 11% .41 75% .31
Jan
24		 Chattanooga B- F A+ F+ D- 40% 4% 56% A D F+ C- F+ A+ A+ F A+ C A D D C 24% 20% 56% B- C B+ F C+ F F A D-
1.21 47% 100% 30% -5 +2 0.96 24% 1.1 .26 6% .62 64% .40 1.03 45% 44% 36% 0 -1 1.00 15% 1.4 .21 11% .38 67% .25
Jan
29		 Furman B D A+ F C 18% 38% 44% F D B+ B- B+ A+ A+ F B- F+ F F A+ F 37% 23% 40% A- F C+ F F B F F+ F
1.13 50% 52% 25% -2 -4 0.91 36% 1.1 .39 6% .36 55% .20 1.21 81% 70% 24% +10 0 1.21 29% 1.7 .50 22% .40 75% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Western Carolina B A+ F B+ B 36% 11% 52% B B C+ C- C D+ A+ D+ A+ B+ B B+ A A- 35% 26% 39% B+ A- A+ A A+ F F D F
1.21 75% 20% 39% +8 +1 1.20 30% 1.0 .30 17% .68 73% .50 1.02 50% 33% 27% -8 -1 0.84 23% 0.8 .18 10% .37 75% .28
Feb
5		 The Citadel C C+ B+ A+ A- 30% 24% 46% F B D F F C- A+ C A+ C- C- F A+ D+ 30% 34% 36% A+ C F D- F C- C- A+ B+
1.20 64% 45% 48% +13 -1 1.26 28% 0.6 .17 15% .47 69% .33 0.99 57% 56% 18% -3 -2 0.91 34% 1.1 .37 17% .28 47% .13
Feb
7		 Mercer D- C A D- C- 34% 26% 40% D D+ F A+ F B A C- A A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 33% 40% 27% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D- B D+ B-
1.05 56% 50% 32% +1 -1 1.02 13% 1.5 .20 15% .36 75% .27 0.74 35% 29% 21% -16 -3 0.63 22% 0.4 .09 14% .30 76% .23
Feb
11		 Wofford A A+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 18% 47% D+ A+ D- A+ A- D- A- D B C- B- D- C- D 32% 30% 38% A+ C A+ F B+ F D+ B+ C
1.33 78% 56% 50% +21 0 1.45 23% 2.0 .45 18% .37 73% .27 1.10 53% 44% 35% +1 -2 1.00 11% 1.8 .19 5% .35 67% .23
Feb
14		 East Tennessee St. C+ D- F F F 36% 15% 49% C F F+ A+ A A+ A+ B- A+ A A D- A A 42% 24% 35% B- A A- D- B- C D+ C- D+
1.09 53% 14% 26% -11 +1 0.81 21% 2.0 .42 13% .61 78% .48 0.96 48% 46% 26% -6 0 0.89 21% 1.3 .26 16% .35 77% .27
Feb
19		 The Citadel D+ A+ F B+ B 39% 14% 47% C B D- F F F+ B F C- D+ C A+ D- D+ 29% 27% 44% A C- A+ F C- F A+ F A+
1.10 79% 29% 39% +10 +1 1.24 27% 0.7 .18 18% .33 58% .19 1.06 56% 24% 37% -3 -2 0.94 17% 1.6 .26 8% .12 75% .09
Feb
21		 Mercer B+ C+ D- A C- 39% 37% 25% F D+ D- B C- A+ A A+ A+ F F F F F 33% 31% 35% A- F A+ F B+ B- F C+ F
1.22 59% 33% 43% +2 -2 1.02 27% 1.1 .30 9% .36 87% .31 1.26 94% 53% 41% +20 -2 1.40 22% 1.2 .26 18% .44 72% .31
Feb
26		 VMI C- A+ F B- B- 29% 10% 60% B- B- F A F+ B+ B- C B- B- F A+ A+ C+ 29% 18% 53% B C+ C C C D+ C+ B+ B-
1.22 86% 20% 38% +10 +1 1.23 23% 1.3 .29 14% .34 74% .25 0.93 71% 22% 23% -8 0 0.86 26% 0.9 .23 15% .27 67% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 9.6 9.6 2nd
3rd 4.6 70.7 75.3 3rd
4th 9.9 9.9 4th
5th 5.3 5.3 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 19.8 80.2 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 80.2% 13.0% 13.0% 14.7 0.2 3.3 6.2 0.8 69.8
10-8 19.8% 10.4% 10.4% 15.5 0.0 1.0 1.0 17.7
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 14.9 87.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 10.5% 100.0% 14.7 1.7 31.1 59.1 8.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 11.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 18.9%
Lose Out 8.8%