San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.5#57
Expected Predictive Rating+3.6#120
Pace68.6#218
Improvement-1.9#325

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#58
First Shot+5.6#46
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#164
Layup/Dunks+3.4#70
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#114
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#109
Freethrows-0.9#232
Improvement+1.5#56

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#74
First Shot+1.2#134
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#40
Layups/Dunks+0.1#167
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#87
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#249
Freethrows+1.3#109
Improvement-3.4#363
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.3% 1.6% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.4% 29.2% 18.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 9.5% 11.5% 4.4%
Average Seed 10.1 10.0 10.7
.500 or above 90.1% 93.7% 80.2%
.500 or above in Conference 91.5% 93.2% 86.7%
Conference Champion 23.5% 25.9% 17.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four4.0% 4.6% 2.2%
First Round24.6% 27.2% 17.4%
Second Round10.1% 11.4% 6.3%
Sweet Sixteen2.7% 3.0% 1.8%
Elite Eight0.8% 1.0% 0.4%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Home) - 73.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 5
Quad 25 - 36 - 8
Quad 38 - 314 - 11
Quad 46 - 120 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 298 Long Beach St. W 77-45 96%     1 - 0 +21.4 -2.1 +23.0
  Sun, Nov 9 230 Idaho St. W 73-57 93%     2 - 0 +9.0 +6.3 +4.8
  Tue, Nov 18 131 Troy L 107-108 2OT 84%     2 - 1 -2.0 +11.1 -12.8
  Mon, Nov 24 1 Michigan L 54-94 7%     2 - 2 -14.3 -8.6 -2.7
  Tue, Nov 25 80 Oregon W 97-80 59%     3 - 2 +24.2 +27.3 -3.2
  Wed, Nov 26 28 Baylor L 81-91 34%     3 - 3 +3.9 +11.4 -7.4
  Wed, Dec 3 89 Utah Valley W 77-70 73%    
  Wed, Dec 10 199 Lamar W 76-61 92%    
  Wed, Dec 17 323 Air Force W 79-58 98%    
  Sat, Dec 20 11 Arizona L 72-81 19%    
  Tue, Dec 30 187 @San Jose St. W 75-67 78%    
  Sat, Jan 3 61 Boise St. W 72-69 62%    
  Tue, Jan 6 122 @Nevada W 76-72 64%    
  Sat, Jan 10 153 Fresno St. W 82-69 88%    
  Wed, Jan 14 117 @Wyoming W 76-73 63%    
  Sat, Jan 17 101 New Mexico W 82-74 76%    
  Wed, Jan 21 98 @Grand Canyon W 75-74 54%    
  Sat, Jan 24 129 @UNLV W 82-78 66%    
  Wed, Jan 28 87 Colorado St. W 76-70 71%    
  Sat, Jan 31 35 @Utah St. L 73-79 29%    
  Tue, Feb 3 117 Wyoming W 79-70 80%    
  Sat, Feb 7 323 @Air Force W 76-61 91%    
  Sat, Feb 14 122 Nevada W 79-69 80%    
  Tue, Feb 17 98 Grand Canyon W 78-71 74%    
  Sat, Feb 21 87 @Colorado St. W 74-73 51%    
  Wed, Feb 25 35 Utah St. L 76-77 48%    
  Sat, Feb 28 101 @New Mexico W 79-77 56%    
  Tue, Mar 3 61 @Boise St. L 69-72 40%    
  Fri, Mar 6 129 UNLV W 85-75 82%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 3.4 6.3 6.2 4.1 1.9 0.4 23.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.3 6.4 7.5 4.6 1.3 0.1 22.6 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.5 6.3 5.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 16.9 3rd
4th 0.3 1.8 4.9 4.1 1.0 0.1 12.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 3.7 2.7 0.6 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.5 2.2 0.5 0.0 5.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.8 0.4 0.0 4.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.4 0.5 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 2.4 4.0 6.3 8.4 11.0 13.4 14.1 12.9 11.2 7.6 4.3 1.9 0.4 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 1.9    1.8 0.0
18-2 96.6% 4.1    3.7 0.4
17-3 82.1% 6.2    4.7 1.5 0.1
16-4 56.4% 6.3    3.7 2.2 0.4 0.0
15-5 25.9% 3.4    1.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 8.3% 1.2    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 23.5% 23.5 15.7 6.1 1.4 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 96.3% 52.8% 43.5% 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.2%
19-1 1.9% 91.5% 48.2% 43.3% 7.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 83.7%
18-2 4.3% 79.4% 44.5% 34.9% 8.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.9 62.9%
17-3 7.6% 57.1% 32.4% 24.7% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.4 1.4 0.0 3.3 36.6%
16-4 11.2% 44.7% 29.9% 14.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.6 0.2 6.2 21.1%
15-5 12.9% 30.7% 22.3% 8.3% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 0.3 9.0 10.7%
14-6 14.1% 23.1% 19.6% 3.5% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.3 0.5 10.9 4.4%
13-7 13.4% 15.2% 13.9% 1.3% 11.3 0.0 0.1 1.3 0.6 0.0 11.4 1.5%
12-8 11.0% 10.7% 10.5% 0.2% 11.5 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.0 9.8 0.2%
11-9 8.4% 7.2% 7.2% 11.8 0.2 0.4 0.0 7.8
10-10 6.3% 5.2% 5.2% 12.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.0
9-11 4.0% 3.1% 3.1% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.9
8-12 2.4% 3.0% 3.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4
7-13 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 1.1
6-14 0.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-15 0.2% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 26.4% 18.6% 7.8% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.5 5.2 11.7 2.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 73.6 9.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.6 27.6 6.9 44.8 20.7