San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +10.4 #52
Expected Predictive Rating +11.0 #53
Pace 69.6 #167
Improvement +1.1 #120

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #86 B B+ C C D
Defense #32 A- B- A B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #184 1.33 #29 +3.1 #82
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #57 0.65 #301 +1.2 #111
Three Pointers 35% #307 1.15 #25 -0.7 #210
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #88 +3.6 #87
Freethrows 17.5 #181 74% #149 12.9 #163
Second Chance 34.6% #73 1.13 #86 0.39 #63
Turnovers 17.0% #204
Total Offense +4.1 #86

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #349 1.06 #69 +6.9 #15
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #250 0.61 #20 +2.2 #38
Three Pointers 53% #5 0.93 #80 -3.8 #322
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #37 +5.3 #37
Freethrows 14.8 #63 77% #336 11.4 #258
Second Chance 28.0% #89 1.02 #148 0.29 #96
Turnovers 20.2% #24
Total Defense +6.3 #32

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.7% #288 -0.7% #103
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.8% #55 -9.7% #34
Possession Length 16.1 #73 18.2 #309
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #88 0.13 #45
Improvement -1.2 #257 +2.3 #60

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 1.3% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.2% 38.1% 24.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 18.9% 24.3% 12.3%
Average Seed 10.1 9.9 10.4
.500 or above 98.8% 99.7% 97.6%
.500 or above in Conference 98.6% 99.6% 97.4%
Conference Champion 22.2% 29.2% 13.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.4% 9.5% 6.9%
First Round27.9% 33.1% 21.1%
Second Round10.6% 13.2% 7.3%
Sweet Sixteen2.2% 2.8% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wyoming (Away) - 56.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 6
Quad 26 - 37 - 8
Quad 37 - 215 - 10
Quad 46 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 264 Long Beach St. W 77 - 45 95% +13  1 - 0 +23 -2 F A+ F +24 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 196 Idaho St. W 73 - 57 92% +11  2 - 0 +11 +4 A+ F F +8 B A- A+
 Tue, Nov 18 125 Troy L 107 - 108 2OT 86% -3  2 - 1 -2 +10 C A+ F -12 B+ F F
 Mon, Nov 24 1 Michigan L 54 - 94 9% -18  2 - 2 -15 -9 C F F -2 A F A-
 Tue, Nov 25 72 Oregon W 97 - 80 60% +10  3 - 2 +25 +27 A+ A+ F -2 D- A+ C
 Wed, Nov 26 37 Baylor L 81 - 91 38% -4  3 - 3 +4 +12 A+ F B -8 F A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 3 101 Utah Valley W 77 - 66 79% +6  4 - 3 +13 +6 C+ A+ C+ +7 A- A- A+
 Wed, Dec 10 220 Lamar W 89 - 71 93% +10  5 - 3 +12 +9 B C B +1 D- A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 342 Air Force W 81 - 58 98% +8  6 - 3 1 - 0 +9 +12 A- A+ D -1 C+ D- B+
 Sat, Dec 20 2 Arizona L 45 - 68 10% -5  6 - 4 +1 -10 F F A+ +9 A+ B- B+
 Tue, Dec 30 227 @San Jose St. W 81 - 68 85% +4  7 - 4 2 - 0 +12 +4 C+ A D+ +8 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 78 Boise St. W 110 - 107 3OT 72% +6  8 - 4 3 - 0 +7 +11 A+ A+ B- -5 C A+ B-
 Tue, Jan 6 85 @Nevada W 73 - 68 53% -2  9 - 4 4 - 0 +15 +10 C A+ F +5 A+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 10 152 Fresno St. W 71 - 52 89% +15  10 - 4 5 - 0 +16 -5 F A+ A +20 A+ A+ A-
 Wed, Jan 14 96 @Wyoming W 76 - 74 57%
 Sat, Jan 17 48 New Mexico W 75 - 73 58%
 Wed, Jan 21 90 @Grand Canyon W 72 - 71 54%
 Sat, Jan 24 134 @UNLV W 79 - 73 71%
 Wed, Jan 28 97 Colorado St. W 75 - 67 78%
 Sat, Jan 31 28 @Utah St. L 72 - 79 25%
 Tue, Feb 3 96 Wyoming W 79 - 71 77%
 Sat, Feb 7 342 @Air Force W 76 - 57 96%
 Sat, Feb 14 85 Nevada W 76 - 69 73%
 Tue, Feb 17 90 Grand Canyon W 75 - 68 74%
 Sat, Feb 21 97 @Colorado St. W 72 - 70 58%
 Wed, Feb 25 28 Utah St. L 75 - 76 44%
 Sat, Feb 28 48 @New Mexico L 72 - 76 37%
 Tue, Mar 3 78 @Boise St. W 71 - 70 50%
 Fri, Mar 6 134 UNLV W 82 - 70 86%
Totals 19 - 10 14 - 6 +10 +4 B B+ C +6 A- B- A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.5 6.1 6.6 4.8 1.7 0.3 22.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 6.8 11.5 8.1 2.6 0.3 30.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 7.5 9.2 3.9 0.4 23.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.6 5.0 1.3 0.1 12.0 4th
5th 0.4 2.4 2.8 0.6 0.0 6.2 5th
6th 0.2 0.9 1.7 0.4 3.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.5 5.4 9.9 14.5 17.7 17.9 14.6 9.1 5.1 1.7 0.3 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.7    1.6 0.0
18-2 94.8% 4.8    4.2 0.6
17-3 71.7% 6.6    4.2 2.3 0.1
16-4 41.6% 6.1    2.5 3.0 0.5 0.0
15-5 13.9% 2.5    0.6 1.2 0.7 0.0
14-6 2.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 22.2% 22.2 13.4 7.3 1.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 96.6% 36.2% 60.3% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.6%
19-1 1.7% 90.6% 38.8% 51.8% 7.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 84.7%
18-2 5.1% 80.2% 31.4% 48.8% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.4 1.0 71.1%
17-3 9.1% 63.2% 24.1% 39.1% 9.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.1 1.6 0.0 3.4 51.5%
16-4 14.6% 47.6% 21.1% 26.5% 10.3 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.5 3.4 0.0 7.6 33.6%
15-5 17.9% 33.4% 17.9% 15.5% 10.6 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.8 0.1 11.9 18.9%
14-6 17.7% 23.3% 15.1% 8.2% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.1 0.1 13.5 9.7%
13-7 14.5% 15.4% 11.4% 4.0% 10.9 0.0 0.3 1.8 0.1 12.3 4.5%
12-8 9.9% 8.7% 7.9% 0.8% 11.1 0.0 0.7 0.1 9.1 0.9%
11-9 5.4% 6.5% 6.4% 0.2% 11.2 0.3 0.1 5.1 0.2%
10-10 2.5% 4.2% 4.2% 11.3 0.1 0.0 2.4
9-11 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 12.0 0.0 1.0
8-12 0.3% 1.9% 1.9% 14.0 0.0 0.3
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 32.2% 16.4% 15.8% 10.1 67.8 18.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.0 9.5 14.3 42.9 28.6 4.8