South Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -7.1 285
Results Rating -6.3 263
Consistency 0.12 33
Pace 74.4 36
Improvement -0.2 198

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 260 D+ D+ C- A- C+
Defense D+ 279 D D- C- C F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 66 C- 55% 246 +1.4 121
2 Pt. Jumpers 42% 124 D+ 35% 286 -0.9 230
Three Pointers 37% 262 D+ 32% 265 -3.0 283
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 129 D+ -2.8 279
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 256
Second Chance D+ 26.9% 280 D+ 0.97 276 D+ 0.26 294
Opponents' Steals D 10.8% 305
Other Turnovers C+ 6.7% 110
Turnovers C- 17.6% 235
Freethrows A- 0.37 16 B- 74% 116 A- 0.27 14
Total Offense D+ -3.6 260

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 41% 293 D 13.2% 309
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 14% 331 C 5.2% 189
Three Pointers C- 82% 226 C+ 0.8% 150
Total D 48% 317 D 7.0% 319

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 53% 1 C- 61% 248 +9.8 365
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 273 D- 43% 338 -0.2 174
Three Pointers 29% 364 C 34% 177 -5.9 2
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ +1.4 361 D+ +2.1 265
1st FG Attempt D 1.09 303
Second Chance D+ 32.5% 275 F+ 1.18 349 D- 0.38 331
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.5% 258
Other Turnovers C 7.3% 171
Turnovers C- 15.8% 238
Freethrows C+ 0.29 145 D 75% 312 C 0.22 168
Total Defense D+ -3.5 279

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 83 D 6.5% 335
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 20% 78 D- 1.0% 355
Three Pointers C- 86% 244 C- 0.6% 228
Total B 48% 43 D 3.8% 316

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.3 167 16.1 21
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 306 0.20 273
Consistency 0.09 11 0.14 282
Improvement -3.2 329 +3.0 49

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 300 283 262
Results Rating Rank 286 267 243
Conference Record 7 - 9 7 - 9 8 - 8
Conference Finish 7 7 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1% 3% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 45% 100% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 2% 2%
First Round1% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: South Dakota St. (Home) - 45.1% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 50 - 6
Quad 31 - 51 - 12
Quad 412 - 513 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 184 Utah Tech L 79 - 81 OT 41% -2  21% 0 - 1 D+ -7 F -12 F D+ D+ B+ +5 C- A B
 Wed, Nov 5 70 @Creighton L 76 - 92 5% -12  4% 0 - 2 C- -5 C +1 C D D D -5 A F B+
 Wed, Nov 12 338 Southern Indiana W 89 - 74 77% +9  84% 1 - 2 C +0 D -5 D- B- F B- +3 A- F C+
 Sun, Nov 16 272 Western Michigan W 83 - 78 59% -3  17% 2 - 2 C- -4 C+ +2 D+ C A+ D- -7 F F A
 Thu, Nov 20 47 @Missouri L 68 - 102 3% -14  1% 2 - 3 F -20 D- -6 D+ A F F -11 F F A
 Sun, Nov 23 357 South Carolina St. W 82 - 81 87% +8  93% 3 - 3 F -18 D+ -3 C- D F F -16 D- F D
 Sat, Nov 29 350 Air Force W 80 - 63 73% +11  96% 4 - 3 C+ +3 C +1 C C F B- +3 A+ B F+
 Wed, Dec 3 158 Portland St. L 71 - 77 35% -5  16% 4 - 4 D -9 D- -8 F A F+ C -1 D+ A D
 Sat, Dec 6 168 @Northern Colorado L 87 - 89 OT 19% -2  19% 4 - 5 C +0 B- +4 B- C F D+ -4 F D C+
 Tue, Dec 9 100 @Wyoming L 79 - 106 9% -15  0% 4 - 6 F -19 C+ +2 C- A- D F -19 F F D+
 Sat, Dec 13 331 Prairie View W 97 - 85 75% +9  82% 5 - 6 C- -2 B- +4 D+ C B- D- -7 F D B-
 Sat, Dec 20 97 @Kansas St. L 76 - 106 8% -22  1% 5 - 7 F -21 C- -1 D+ D+ B+ F -19 F F C
 Wed, Dec 31 137 @North Dakota St. L 61 - 84 14% -10  35% 5 - 8 0 - 1 F -19 D- -7 D- D F F -14 F F F+
 Wed, Jan 7 115 @St. Thomas L 86 - 99 11% -15  1% 5 - 9 0 - 2 D+ -7 B+ +8 A C F F -14 F F D
 Sat, Jan 10 243 Denver W 82 - 72 52% +2  60% 6 - 9 1 - 2 C+ +2 D+ -4 B F C B+ +6 A D B-
 Thu, Jan 15 360 UMKC W 99 - 83 88% +17  96% 7 - 9 2 - 2 C- -4 A- +10 B A- A- F -15 F C+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 291 @North Dakota L 80 - 96 41% -11  3% 7 - 10 2 - 3 F -21 C -0 B F C+ F -20 F F F
 Wed, Jan 21 255 @Nebraska Omaha W 68 - 64 31% -2  27% 8 - 10 3 - 3 C+ +2 F -12 D+ F F A+ +14 A C B
 Sat, Jan 24 115 St. Thomas L 78 - 90 24% -2  30% 8 - 11 3 - 4 D- -12 C +2 D+ C A+ F -13 D F C-
 Thu, Jan 29 325 Oral Roberts W 77 - 69 73% +1  56% 9 - 11 4 - 4 D+ -5 D -5 F C+ A+ C -0 D A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 137 North Dakota St. L 84 - 89 OT 30% -7  4% 9 - 12 4 - 5 D+ -7 C+ +2 C+ C A- F+ -9 F C- A-
 Wed, Feb 4 360 @UMKC W 82 - 75 OT 74% -2  26% 10 - 12 5 - 5 D+ -7 D- -7 F F+ B C -1 F B A-
 Sat, Feb 7 209 @South Dakota St. W 68 - 67 24% +3  67% 11 - 12 6 - 5 C +1 D- -8 C- F C+ A +9 C+ A+ D+
 Wed, Feb 11 291 North Dakota L 71 - 72 64% +1  52% 11 - 13 6 - 6 D- -12 F+ -9 F D- B- C- -3 B- F D-
 Thu, Feb 19 243 @Denver L 70 - 90 30% -5  11% 11 - 14 6 - 7 F -22 D- -7 D D- F+ F -16 D- B- F
 Sat, Feb 21 325 @Oral Roberts L 62 - 67 51% -4  0% 11 - 15 6 - 8 D- -12 F -18 F F F B+ +6 B- A D+
 Wed, Feb 25 255 Nebraska Omaha W 89 - 72 54% +11  97% 12 - 15 7 - 8 B +9 B- +4 B+ F B+ B +4 B+ F+ D-
 Sat, Feb 28 209 South Dakota St. L 77 - 78 45%
Totals 12 - 16 7 - 9 -7 D+ -4 A- D+ C+ D+ -4 D+ B- A-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- D+ D+ D+ 43% 42% 37% C+ D+ D+ D+ D+ C- A- B- A- D+ C- D- C D+ 53% 18% 29% F+ D D+ F+ D- C- C+ D C
1.04 55% 35% 32% -3 0 0.97 27% 1.0 .26 18% .37 74% .27 1.14 61% 43% 34% +2 +1 1.09 32% 1.2 .38 16% .29 75% .28
Nov
3		 Utah Tech F F+ C F F 49% 24% 27% C- F C F+ D+ D+ A+ B+ A+ B+ C F A+ C+ 54% 8% 38% F C- C+ A+ A B B A+ B+
0.96 52% 36% 13% -12 0 0.78 32% 0.9 .27 17% .51 77% .39 0.98 61% 80% 26% 0 +3 1.08 28% 0.6 .16 18% .19 62% .12
Nov
5		 Creighton C C F C- C- 54% 20% 25% A C A+ F D D B- F+ C D C B- A+ A+ 48% 20% 32% D+ A F F F B+ A F B
1.04 56% 25% 33% -4 +1 0.97 46% 0.5 .22 18% .23 64% .15 1.26 63% 36% 22% -4 +1 0.96 54% 1.5 .83 18% .18 91% .17
Nov
12		 Southern Indiana D B F F F+ 61% 24% 14% C+ D- C B B- F A+ A- A+ B- B+ A+ A+ A 44% 19% 37% D- A- A F F C+ F F F
1.06 63% 8% 29% -5 +1 0.94 34% 1.1 .37 21% .70 80% .56 0.88 43% 20% 21% -17 +1 0.69 22% 1.6 .34 18% .48 82% .39
Nov
16		 Western Michigan C+ F A+ C+ D+ 28% 15% 57% D+ D+ D+ B+ C A+ C+ F C- D- F D A F 62% 15% 23% F F F F F A A F B+
1.21 47% 50% 35% 0 0 1.02 27% 1.3 .34 4% .33 64% .21 1.13 69% 43% 27% +5 +2 1.17 41% 1.5 .59 22% .20 82% .17
Nov
20		 Missouri D- A- D- F+ D+ 23% 27% 50% D+ D+ B- A+ A F A F C F F+ F F F 68% 13% 19% F F F B- F A F F F
0.92 64% 31% 29% -4 -2 0.90 32% 1.3 .39 23% .37 57% .21 1.38 72% 50% 56% +17 +3 1.43 50% 1.1 .54 23% .53 80% .42
Nov
23		 South Carolina St. D+ C C+ C+ C- 55% 15% 30% C+ C- A+ F D F A+ F A- F B- C D- C 59% 16% 25% F D- F F F D C- F F
1.16 62% 43% 36% +3 +2 1.13 55% 0.7 .39 25% .53 64% .34 1.15 50% 38% 38% -3 +2 1.00 43% 1.2 .51 18% .33 84% .28
Nov
29		 Air Force C B+ A+ F C- 45% 20% 35% B C A+ F C F A+ C+ A+ B- B+ A+ A+ A+ 68% 7% 24% F A+ A+ F B F+ F F F
1.16 68% 60% 24% +4 0 1.10 49% 0.6 .31 20% .46 72% .33 0.92 50% 0% 10% -17 +4 0.76 13% 1.5 .20 17% .62 74% .46
Dec
3		 Portland St. D- F D+ F F 62% 12% 26% A+ F B- A+ A F+ A+ F A+ C C- A+ D C+ 75% 9% 15% F D+ A- A A D F C F
0.93 39% 33% 23% -17 +3 0.74 33% 1.3 .43 22% .57 68% .38 1.00 58% 0% 38% -3 +4 1.04 25% 0.8 .19 17% .41 69% .28
Dec
6		 Northern Colorado B- C A+ F B- 58% 23% 19% C+ B- C C C F A A+ A+ D+ F D- F F 47% 17% 36% D F A F D C+ F A+ F+
1.14 58% 58% 20% +1 +1 1.06 27% 1.1 .30 17% .43 93% .39 1.17 72% 44% 42% +12 +1 1.28 21% 1.7 .34 18% .40 56% .22
Dec
9		 Wyoming C+ F B A C 35% 29% 37% F C- C A+ A- D A+ A- A+ F F+ D- F F 59% 7% 34% F F C- F F D+ C- D- D+
1.06 41% 43% 39% -2 -1 0.96 26% 1.4 .37 19% .55 76% .41 1.43 67% 50% 47% +13 +3 1.34 37% 1.4 .52 15% .33 81% .27
Dec
13		 Prairie View B- D+ A+ F D 52% 19% 29% B- D+ B D C B- A+ B A+ D- C F B- D- 67% 12% 22% F F D- C- D B- A- B A
1.22 56% 56% 29% 0 +1 1.04 42% 1.0 .42 16% .66 77% .51 1.07 55% 57% 31% -1 +3 1.07 29% 1.1 .31 18% .28 72% .20
Dec
20		 Kansas St. C- C- F A+ D 49% 23% 28% B- D+ D- B- D+ B+ C+ F D F F F F F 60% 3% 36% F F F F F C C+ D+ C
1.01 54% 0% 44% -7 0 0.89 27% 1.3 .33 16% .31 55% .17 1.40 71% 50% 48% +16 +4 1.41 41% 1.3 .52 16% .25 75% .19
Dec
31		 North Dakota St. D- F B+ A- D 25% 30% 45% F D- C- F D F B+ A+ A+ F F F A+ F 40% 19% 40% D- F F F F F+ D A- C-
0.96 36% 46% 40% +1 -2 1.00 28% 0.7 .19 24% .31 87% .27 1.32 76% 70% 24% +7 0 1.17 41% 1.3 .52 13% .31 65% .20
Jan
7		 St. Thomas B+ C- B- A+ A 38% 20% 42% D+ A C+ D+ C F B- A+ A F F B- F F 54% 11% 36% D F B- F F D D+ F D-
1.17 58% 40% 48% +9 0 1.20 30% 1.1 .33 22% .30 94% .28 1.35 77% 33% 45% +15 +2 1.38 19% 1.8 .33 12% .33 76% .25
Jan
10		 Denver D+ B C A B 49% 15% 36% B- B F F F C B B- B B+ A F A+ A+ 35% 25% 40% D A C+ F D B- A F B+
1.17 65% 38% 42% +8 +1 1.21 22% 0.4 .09 13% .36 73% .26 1.02 45% 57% 22% -7 -1 0.86 29% 1.4 .39 16% .22 85% .19
Jan
15		 UMKC A- D- A+ A+ B 46% 13% 41% B- B C A+ A- A- A+ A+ A+ F D- B- D F 48% 20% 33% F F D+ B+ C+ F C- A+ B-
1.30 52% 57% 45% +7 +2 1.19 38% 1.3 .50 13% .38 84% .32 1.09 62% 33% 35% +1 +1 1.07 29% 0.8 .22 10% .26 56% .15
Jan
17		 North Dakota C C+ F A+ B 44% 10% 46% C+ B F F F C+ B A+ A+ F F C C F 52% 18% 30% C- F F F F F A+ A+ A+
1.15 62% 20% 45% +8 +2 1.21 23% 0.7 .17 19% .42 83% .35 1.37 66% 36% 33% +3 +1 1.11 38% 1.8 .71 9% .11 57% .06
Jan
21		 Nebraska Omaha F A- F C- C- 30% 17% 52% C- D+ F A+ F F A B- A A+ F C- A+ A+ 46% 20% 34% D A C+ D+ C B F A+ C-
0.94 71% 25% 33% +1 0 1.04 11% 1.3 .14 24% .38 76% .29 0.89 70% 40% 6% -9 +1 0.86 24% 1.1 .27 19% .38 59% .22
Jan
24		 St. Thomas C C F D D 46% 17% 37% C+ D+ F A+ C A+ A+ B A+ F D F D- D 45% 8% 47% D+ D F C- F C- F F F
1.12 60% 22% 30% -4 +1 0.96 20% 1.7 .34 10% .38 79% .30 1.30 68% 50% 39% +9 +2 1.24 36% 1.0 .36 14% .44 77% .34
Jan
29		 Oral Roberts D F+ F F F 67% 8% 25% A F D- A+ C+ A+ A+ D+ A+ C A F F+ D 53% 24% 24% C- D B A+ A+ F B+ A A-
1.09 47% 25% 25% -12 +4 0.85 26% 1.5 .38 7% .56 68% .38 0.97 41% 62% 38% -2 +1 1.00 23% 0.6 .13 14% .25 67% .16
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 North Dakota St. C+ B A+ C- C 35% 13% 52% B- C+ F A+ C A- A+ A+ A+ F+ C- D F F 50% 13% 38% F F C+ D C- A- A F B
1.13 67% 57% 33% +5 +1 1.13 19% 1.3 .26 15% .36 87% .32 1.20 61% 43% 48% +10 +2 1.25 31% 1.1 .34 20% .19 82% .15
Feb
4		 UMKC D- D F F F 44% 15% 41% C+ F F A F+ B A+ A+ A+ C F A C- F 47% 32% 21% C F A D- B A- B D+ B-
1.02 54% 13% 27% -10 +1 0.85 23% 1.3 .29 15% .51 80% .41 0.93 70% 28% 33% +2 -1 1.05 18% 1.0 .18 22% .21 69% .14
Feb
7		 South Dakota St. D- F+ C B C- 30% 19% 51% C- C- F D F C+ F F F A A D F C 40% 35% 25% A+ C+ A+ B- A+ D+ A F B+
0.98 50% 40% 37% 0 0 1.02 16% 1.0 .16 14% .22 62% .13 0.96 45% 42% 43% 0 -2 0.98 12% 1.0 .12 14% .18 82% .15
Feb
11		 North Dakota F+ A D F F 54% 6% 40% A- F D+ D- D- B- F+ B D C- A F A A- 71% 8% 21% F B- F D- F D- B+ C+ B+
1.06 74% 33% 10% -6 +3 0.96 32% 1.0 .32 18% .31 76% .24 1.08 43% 75% 27% -10 +4 0.90 36% 1.2 .42 12% .27 69% .19
Feb
19		 Denver D- A+ F F D+ 38% 26% 36% D- D F A+ D- F+ A+ C- A+ F B C F F 30% 41% 30% A D- F+ A+ B- F F F F
1.07 87% 10% 29% +1 -1 1.03 19% 1.6 .31 17% .65 69% .44 1.38 50% 41% 56% +9 -3 1.13 35% 0.8 .29 6% .41 92% .38
Feb
21		 Oral Roberts F C C F F 57% 9% 34% B+ F F F F F A+ F B B+ B+ F A+ C 37% 37% 25% A+ B- D+ A+ A D+ F D F
0.85 57% 40% 17% -9 +3 0.89 15% 0.4 .06 19% .44 58% .26 0.92 47% 47% 23% -5 -2 0.88 30% 0.5 .14 17% .38 78% .30
Feb
25		 Nebraska Omaha B- D A A+ B 44% 12% 44% B+ B+ F F F B+ A+ B- A+ B A B D+ A 56% 17% 27% F B+ B F F+ D- F B+ F
1.21 57% 50% 43% +7 +2 1.19 16% 0.8 .13 11% .46 77% .35 0.98 45% 33% 36% -8 +2 0.90 22% 1.6 .36 14% .44 68% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 38.7 38.7 4th
5th 6.4 6.4 5th
6th 6th
7th 54.9 54.9 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 54.9 45.1 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 45.1% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.1 1.3 43.7
7-9 54.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.9 54.0
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 16.0 97.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 16.0 4.9 95.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 14.3%
Lose Out 46.7%