Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.8 #263
Expected Predictive Rating -8.4 #297
Pace 75.3 #45
Improvement -0.9 #238

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #288 D- C C C- D-
Defense #223 F D+ B- F C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #207 1.05 #303 -2.6 #273
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #39 0.62 #330 +1.2 #110
Three Pointers 34% #317 1.01 #187 -3.7 #300
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #318 -5.1 #319
Freethrows 17.9 #156 66% #337 11.9 #228
Second Chance 30.5% #187 1.02 #220 0.31 #190
Turnovers 16.9% #195
Total Offense -4.3 #288

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #291 1.29 #318 +0.0 #173
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #209 0.80 #260 +0.0 #185
Three Pointers 46% #50 1.16 #340 -6.0 #352
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #341 -6.0 #341
Freethrows 20.4 #313 77% #344 15.8 #30
Second Chance 31.5% #214 1.12 #274 0.35 #260
Turnovers 18.4% #79
Total Defense -1.5 #223

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.2% #314 -0.3% #145
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.9% #302 12.1% #349
Possession Length 16.2 #82 16.7 #97
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #173 0.23 #325
Improvement -2.0 #299 +1.1 #115

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.8% 22.4% 16.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 21.6% 34.0% 13.5%
.500 or above in Conference 85.1% 94.0% 79.2%
Conference Champion 27.0% 40.9% 17.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four14.3% 14.9% 13.9%
First Round12.5% 15.9% 10.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grambling St. (Away) - 39.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 30 - 20 - 8
Quad 412 - 913 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 26 @Arkansas L 77 - 109 2% -21  0 - 1 -14 -0 D+ C B+ -9 C B- D
 Wed, Nov 5 106 @Marquette L 82 - 100 11% -9  0 - 2 -11 +5 C C B+ -13 F D- D
 Tue, Nov 18 46 @Washington L 93 - 99 2OT 4% +3  0 - 3 +8 +4 D+ A+ D- +6 A- C- B+
 Fri, Nov 21 227 @San Jose St. L 66 - 80 31% -8  0 - 4 -15 -8 F F C -7 F D+ A+
 Sat, Nov 29 276 @Northwestern St. W 75 - 73 42% +8  1 - 4 -2 +0 C- C F -2 C F B+
 Mon, Dec 8 41 @Texas L 69 - 95 4% -17  1 - 5 -11 -1 C+ F F -9 F F A+
 Wed, Dec 10 261 @Texas St. L 83 - 86 38% +2  1 - 6 -6 +0 C- C F -5 F A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 16 157 @California Baptist L 67 - 75 20% -4  1 - 7 -5 -3 F B- F -2 C- A- D
 Sun, Dec 21 37 @Baylor L 67 - 111 3% -15  1 - 8 -27 -0 F A+ A- -27 F D+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 8 @Illinois L 55 - 90 1% -20  1 - 9 -11 -3 F A- C -11 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 334 Texas Southern W 84 - 73 78% +8  2 - 9 1 - 0 -3 -3 B- F C -1 C D+ A
 Mon, Jan 5 317 Prairie View L 85 - 89 74% -5  2 - 10 1 - 1 -16 +0 F C B -16 F F B
 Sat, Jan 10 322 @Florida A&M L 59 - 67 53% -4  2 - 11 1 - 2 -15 -14 F F F -1 C+ F A+
 Mon, Jan 12 272 @Bethune-Cookman W 77 - 73 41% -4  3 - 11 2 - 2 +1 -0 F A- B +1 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 269 @Grambling St. L 73 - 76 40%
 Sat, Jan 24 327 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 84 - 77 76%
 Mon, Jan 26 365 Mississippi Valley W 83 - 62 97%
 Sat, Jan 31 347 @Alcorn St. W 79 - 76 62%
 Mon, Feb 2 333 @Jackson St. W 80 - 78 57%
 Sat, Feb 7 300 Alabama A&M W 76 - 71 69%
 Mon, Feb 9 306 Alabama St. W 80 - 74 70%
 Sat, Feb 14 317 @Prairie View W 80 - 79 52%
 Mon, Feb 16 334 @Texas Southern W 77 - 75 58%
 Sat, Feb 21 269 Grambling St. W 76 - 73 62%
 Thu, Feb 26 322 Florida A&M W 80 - 73 73%
 Sat, Feb 28 272 Bethune-Cookman W 79 - 75 63%
 Tue, Mar 3 306 @Alabama St. L 77 - 78 48%
 Thu, Mar 5 300 @Alabama A&M L 73 - 74 48%
Totals 12 - 16 11 - 7 -6 -4 D- C C -1 F D+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.3 7.0 9.4 6.3 2.5 0.5 27.0 1st
2nd 0.6 6.3 7.4 2.5 0.2 0.0 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.5 7.4 1.8 0.1 12.8 3rd
4th 0.7 6.8 2.6 0.1 10.2 4th
5th 0.1 3.4 4.6 0.3 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 5.4 1.0 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.2 2.6 2.9 0.1 5.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 3.3 0.4 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.3 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.1 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 1.3 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 4.2 8.1 12.8 16.6 18.0 16.4 11.9 6.5 2.5 0.5 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.5    0.5
15-3 99.8% 2.5    2.4 0.0
14-4 97.2% 6.3    5.5 0.8 0.0
13-5 78.6% 9.4    5.7 3.3 0.4 0.0
12-6 42.7% 7.0    1.7 3.1 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
11-7 7.4% 1.3    0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.0% 27.0 15.8 7.4 2.7 0.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.5% 52.9% 52.9% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
15-3 2.5% 41.0% 41.0% 15.2 0.1 0.6 0.3 1.5
14-4 6.5% 31.9% 31.9% 15.8 0.0 0.4 1.7 4.4
13-5 11.9% 27.0% 27.0% 15.9 0.2 3.0 8.7
12-6 16.4% 23.1% 23.1% 16.0 0.0 3.8 12.6
11-7 18.0% 20.2% 20.2% 16.0 0.0 3.6 14.4
10-8 16.6% 16.1% 16.1% 16.0 2.7 13.9
9-9 12.8% 12.9% 12.9% 16.0 1.6 11.1
8-10 8.1% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.5 7.6
7-11 4.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.2
6-12 1.9% 1.9
5-13 0.6% 0.6
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.8% 18.8% 0.0% 15.9 81.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 14.0 1.9 18.5 53.7 25.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%