Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#197
Expected Predictive Rating-6.0#263
Pace78.1#30
Improvement+0.9#98

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#247
First Shot-3.9#289
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#108
Layup/Dunks-0.3#198
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#206
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#270
Freethrows-0.3#190
Improvement-0.4#228

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#155
First Shot-0.8#198
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#109
Layups/Dunks+0.6#154
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#94
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#240
Freethrows-1.3#262
Improvement+1.4#55
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.9% 32.0% 24.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 60.3% 71.2% 46.7%
.500 or above in Conference 93.5% 95.0% 91.8%
Conference Champion 50.8% 56.5% 43.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four8.7% 7.4% 10.3%
First Round24.8% 28.8% 19.8%
Second Round0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern St. (Away) - 55.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 7
Quad 31 - 31 - 10
Quad 415 - 616 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 25 @Arkansas L 77-109 4%     0 - 1 -14.8 +1.8 -12.2
  Wed, Nov 5 73 @Marquette L 82-100 11%     0 - 2 -7.2 +5.9 -11.0
  Tue, Nov 18 48 @Washington L 93-99 2OT 8%     0 - 3 +7.6 +3.9 +5.2
  Fri, Nov 21 187 @San Jose St. L 66-80 36%     0 - 4 -12.8 -6.1 -6.7
  Sat, Nov 29 285 @Northwestern St. W 73-72 55%    
  Mon, Dec 8 36 @Texas L 69-87 5%    
  Wed, Dec 10 203 @Texas St. L 70-73 40%    
  Tue, Dec 16 136 @California Baptist L 69-76 27%    
  Sun, Dec 21 28 @Baylor L 71-90 4%    
  Mon, Dec 29 13 @Illinois L 69-92 2%    
  Wed, Dec 31 338 @Alcorn St. W 78-73 69%    
  Sat, Jan 3 307 Texas Southern W 82-73 78%    
  Mon, Jan 5 332 Prairie View W 83-72 84%    
  Sat, Jan 10 351 @Florida A&M W 79-72 73%    
  Mon, Jan 12 217 @Bethune-Cookman L 75-77 43%    
  Sat, Jan 17 290 @Grambling St. W 75-73 57%    
  Sat, Jan 24 363 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 88-72 92%    
  Mon, Jan 26 365 Mississippi Valley W 88-65 98%    
  Sat, Jan 31 338 @Alcorn St. W 78-73 68%    
  Mon, Feb 2 326 @Jackson St. W 79-75 63%    
  Sat, Feb 7 293 Alabama A&M W 79-71 76%    
  Mon, Feb 9 266 Alabama St. W 80-74 71%    
  Sat, Feb 14 332 @Prairie View W 80-75 66%    
  Mon, Feb 16 307 @Texas Southern W 79-76 59%    
  Sat, Feb 21 290 Grambling St. W 78-70 76%    
  Thu, Feb 26 351 Florida A&M W 82-69 87%    
  Sat, Feb 28 217 Bethune-Cookman W 78-74 64%    
  Tue, Mar 3 266 @Alabama St. W 77-76 51%    
  Thu, Mar 5 293 @Alabama A&M W 76-74 56%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 13 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 4.5 9.8 12.1 10.5 7.4 4.1 49.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 4.6 6.6 3.9 1.1 0.2 17.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.5 4.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 10.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.2 1.0 0.1 7.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 2.4 1.1 0.1 4.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 1.9 0.9 0.1 3.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.9 0.1 2.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.8 4.3 6.7 9.0 11.3 12.8 14.0 13.2 10.7 7.4 4.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.1    4.1
17-1 100.0% 7.4    7.3 0.0
16-2 98.3% 10.5    10.0 0.5
15-3 91.7% 12.1    9.6 2.4 0.1
14-4 70.2% 9.8    5.9 3.4 0.6 0.0
13-5 35.4% 4.5    1.6 2.1 0.8 0.1
12-6 10.3% 1.2    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 49.8% 49.8 38.8 8.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.1% 55.5% 55.5% 14.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.1 1.8
17-1 7.4% 50.4% 50.4% 14.6 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.8 0.5 3.7
16-2 10.7% 42.0% 42.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 1.3 6.2
15-3 13.2% 38.0% 38.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 2.4 8.2
14-4 14.0% 30.8% 30.8% 15.7 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.0 9.7
13-5 12.8% 25.7% 25.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.8 9.5
12-6 11.3% 18.5% 18.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.0 9.2
11-7 9.0% 15.3% 15.3% 16.0 0.0 1.4 7.6
10-8 6.7% 10.4% 10.4% 16.0 0.7 6.0
9-9 4.3% 8.1% 8.1% 16.0 0.4 4.0
8-10 2.8% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.2 2.6
7-11 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5
6-12 0.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 27.9% 27.9% 0.0% 15.3 0.1 1.1 3.6 8.3 14.7 72.1 0.0%