St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -15.1 355
Results Rating -15.8 354
Consistency 0.15 146
Pace 73.7 49
Improvement +2.1 103

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 326 D+ D D D- D+
Defense F+ 360 F D- C+ D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 280 C- 56% 232 -2.6 278
2 Pt. Jumpers 46% 87 D 33% 324 +0.2 164
Three Pointers 41% 188 C 34% 190 -0.3 190
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 276 D+ -2.1 256
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 266
Second Chance D+ 26.9% 281 D+ 0.95 294 D 0.26 305
Opponents' Steals C 9.6% 202
Other Turnovers F+ 9.3% 344
Turnovers D 18.9% 308
Freethrows D 0.26 318 D 69% 283 D- 0.18 328
Total Offense D -6.2 326

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 43% 273 D 13.7% 325
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 154 D+ 6.6% 281
Three Pointers C+ 86% 138 B- 0.6% 110
Total C- 54% 207 D+ 6.7% 296

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 123 F 70% 364 +6.1 351
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 344 C+ 37% 140 -2.5 17
Three Pointers 44% 75 F+ 39% 358 +5.2 349
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.9 339 F +7.6 363
1st FG Attempt F 1.20 364
Second Chance D+ 33.2% 294 F+ 1.19 352 D- 0.39 343
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.2% 132
Other Turnovers C 7.4% 150
Turnovers C+ 17.6% 126
Freethrows D- 0.36 323 C 72% 150 D 0.26 321
Total Defense F+ -8.9 360

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 218 F+ 4.3% 359
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F+ 40% 348 C+ 5.6% 117
Three Pointers C- 85% 203 D- 0.0% 358
Total D+ 61% 302 F+ 2.6% 355

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.3 169 15.9 8
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 275 0.23 336
Consistency 0.12 172 0.14 303
Improvement +4.5 15 -2.4 302

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 358 355 351
Results Rating Rank 357 355 350
Conference Record 5 - 11 5 - 11 6 - 10
Conference Finish 10 9 9
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 87% 29% 100%
First Four2% 3% 2%
First Round1% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Central Connecticut St. (Away) - 17.8% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 50 - 10
Quad 46 - 156 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 51 @Oklahoma L 66 - 102 1% -11  6% 0 - 1 F -22 F -10 D D D- F -10 F+ F B-
 Thu, Nov 6 50 @TCU L 63 - 104 1% -23  0% 0 - 2 F -27 F+ -10 C- F C F -13 F F A-
 Tue, Nov 11 286 Mount St. Mary's L 66 - 74 32% -5  18% 0 - 3 F -18 F -11 F+ F D+ D- -7 F B+ C+
 Tue, Nov 18 295 @Lehigh L 62 - 79 17% -9  1% 0 - 4 F -22 F -18 F C+ F D+ -3 D- F B
 Mon, Nov 24 62 Belmont L 57 - 94 2% -16  2% 0 - 5 F -28 F -18 F F F F+ -9 F C- C
 Wed, Nov 26 151 Troy L 64 - 74 8% +2  62% 0 - 6 D -10 F -15 C- F F B+ +6 C C- A+
 Mon, Dec 1 86 @Xavier L 74 - 96 2% -13  0% 0 - 7 D- -12 D -5 C- C D D -5 C- D D+
 Sun, Dec 7 230 @Radford L 56 - 89 10% -17  1% 0 - 8 F -34 F -20 F F D F -14 F F C-
 Sun, Dec 14 156 @Temple L 67 - 95 6% -17  0% 0 - 9 F -25 D- -8 D C+ D F -18 F A C-
 Wed, Dec 17 4 @Florida L 61 - 102 0% -25  0% 0 - 10 D- -14 C- -2 C C- C+ F -10 F F A
 Sat, Dec 20 161 Robert Morris L 70 - 79 14% -2  38% 0 - 11 D- -12 C- -1 C- A A+ F -12 F A+ C+
 Fri, Jan 2 293 Le Moyne L 58 - 84 34% -9  23% 0 - 12 0 - 1 F -37 F -19 F F C- F -19 F F C+
 Sun, Jan 4 339 Fairleigh Dickinson W 85 - 82 49% -0  30% 1 - 12 1 - 1 D- -12 C -0 D A C F -12 D F+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 320 @Wagner W 71 - 69 23% -1  33% 2 - 12 2 - 1 D+ -5 D+ -2 C C- D- C- -3 C- F+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 218 @LIU Brooklyn L 63 - 67 9% -1  31% 2 - 13 2 - 2 C- -4 F -12 C F D- A- +8 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 302 Central Connecticut St. L 90 - 98 36% -7  0% 2 - 14 2 - 3 F -19 A- +10 B- A- A- F -29 F B F
 Mon, Jan 19 337 Stonehill W 63 - 61 48% -3  16% 3 - 14 3 - 3 D- -13 F -12 F C- B C -1 D- C A+
 Fri, Jan 23 347 Chicago St. W 81 - 60 54% +13  97% 4 - 14 4 - 3 B- +5 C +2 A+ F C B +4 C+ C B+
 Sat, Jan 31 329 New Haven L 69 - 81 45% -5  17% 4 - 15 4 - 4 F -26 D- -6 D- C- C+ F -20 F C- D-
 Thu, Feb 5 289 @Mercyhurst L 89 - 98 OT 16% -3  23% 4 - 16 4 - 5 D- -14 B- +4 B+ F+ D+ F -17 C+ F B-
 Sat, Feb 7 293 @Le Moyne L 84 - 86 17% +3  72% 4 - 17 4 - 6 D+ -7 C -0 C+ C D+ D- -6 F B A+
 Mon, Feb 9 347 @Chicago St. L 75 - 80 31% -7  10% 4 - 18 4 - 7 F+ -15 D- -6 D- C+ F F+ -9 C- F B
 Thu, Feb 12 339 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 59 - 66 27% -5  3% 4 - 19 4 - 8 F+ -16 F -17 F C- C C+ +0 D- F A
 Sat, Feb 14 289 Mercyhurst L 79 - 94 33% -9  7% 4 - 20 4 - 9 F -26 C +1 A- F A- F -27 F F D
 Thu, Feb 19 218 LIU Brooklyn L 89 - 91 20% -1  37% 4 - 21 4 - 10 D -8 B- +4 A+ F F F -12 F A F
 Sat, Feb 21 320 Wagner L 56 - 65 43% -3  7% 4 - 22 4 - 11 F -22 F -22 F F+ F C -1 C B- A-
 Tue, Feb 24 329 @New Haven W 73 - 67 24% +3  66% 5 - 22 5 - 11 C- -2 B- +5 B C+ F D -6 F A+ F
 Thu, Feb 26 337 @Stonehill L 77 - 103 27% -17  3% 5 - 23 5 - 12 F -35 C -0 D- A D- F -33 F F F
 Sat, Feb 28 302 @Central Connecticut St. L 72 - 82 18%
Totals 5 - 24 5 - 13 -15 D -6 D+ D+ D+ F+ -9 C D D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D C- D C D+ 35% 46% 41% D+ D+ D+ D+ D D D D D- F+ F C+ F+ F 41% 15% 44% D F D+ F+ D- C+ D- C D
1.00 56% 33% 34% -2 -1 0.96 27% 1.0 .26 19% .26 69% .18 1.21 70% 37% 39% +8 +1 1.20 33% 1.2 .39 18% .36 72% .19
Nov
3		 Oklahoma F A- F D D+ 34% 38% 28% F+ D C F D D- F D+ F F F F B- D 57% 2% 41% F F+ F+ F+ F B- B B- B
0.89 65% 23% 31% -5 -3 0.88 30% 0.8 .25 19% .17 70% .12 1.38 70% 100% 33% +7 +4 1.24 40% 1.4 .57 15% .29 72% .21
Nov
6		 TCU F+ D F B D+ 46% 21% 33% C+ C- F C- F C F A+ F F F F D- F 35% 9% 56% D F F D- F A- F F F
0.81 50% 25% 37% -5 0 0.93 13% 1.0 .13 21% .10 83% .08 1.34 74% 60% 39% +11 +1 1.27 47% 1.2 .56 19% .45 86% .38
Nov
11		 Mount St. Mary's F C D F D- 28% 30% 42% F+ F+ A- F F D+ D+ D+ D+ D- F F+ F F 29% 15% 56% B F A- C+ B+ C+ D A+ A
0.96 56% 35% 25% -7 -2 0.84 38% 0.5 .19 16% .31 72% .22 1.07 79% 43% 41% +12 0 1.27 23% 1.0 .23 23% .34 39% .13
Nov
18		 Lehigh F F B C- F 43% 27% 31% C- F D- A+ C+ F F D F D+ D+ F C- D 43% 16% 41% F D- F F+ F B F A F
0.85 33% 46% 33% -9 0 0.84 28% 1.3 .36 25% .24 69% .16 1.08 62% 50% 35% +4 +1 1.12 32% 1.1 .35 20% .45 65% .29
Nov
24		 Belmont F F A+ F F 33% 15% 52% B- F D F F F C D+ C F+ D B+ F F 42% 6% 53% D F B F C- C A- F B-
0.79 41% 50% 22% -13 0 0.77 27% 0.7 .20 24% .27 73% .20 1.31 68% 33% 50% +17 +2 1.40 24% 1.5 .36 18% .24 79% .19
Nov
26		 Troy F F B- A+ C 30% 28% 41% D- C- C F F F B- B B B+ C- A B- 57% 0% 43% F C F+ B C- A+ F A+ F
0.87 36% 46% 42% +1 -2 1.00 31% 0.6 .20 30% .31 75% .23 1.01 58% 28% -4 +4 1.02 40% 0.9 .34 26% .55 63% .35
Dec
1		 Xavier D C F B- C- 37% 25% 39% C- C- F A+ C D D A+ C D D- F A- C+ 43% 12% 46% F C- F+ C D D+ B A- B+
0.95 57% 29% 36% -1 -1 0.98 17% 1.3 .23 19% .24 80% .19 1.24 69% 50% 29% +3 +1 1.10 33% 1.0 .33 10% .22 67% .14
Dec
7		 Radford F F B- C- F 31% 23% 46% D- F F+ F F D F C F F D- C- F F 35% 9% 56% D- F D F F C- A+ C+ A+
0.81 38% 42% 33% -6 -1 0.88 24% 0.7 .17 20% .13 71% .09 1.28 63% 40% 40% +7 +1 1.19 32% 1.6 .52 17% .24 71% .17
Dec
14		 Temple D- C F D- D- 46% 15% 38% B D C- A- C+ D F F F F D+ F F F 48% 6% 46% F F A+ F A C- A+ F A
0.97 58% 25% 30% -4 +1 0.96 27% 1.2 .32 17% .23 54% .12 1.37 62% 67% 60% +21 +3 1.50 14% 1.3 .18 13% .23 86% .20
Dec
17		 Florida C- C+ A- F B- 30% 44% 26% F C C D+ C- C+ F B- F+ F F F F+ F 41% 8% 51% C F F F F A F+ F F
0.84 53% 44% 20% -4 -4 0.86 21% 0.6 .13 17% .18 73% .13 1.41 81% 75% 38% +16 +2 1.37 54% 1.3 .71 21% .42 83% .35
Dec
20		 Robert Morris C- B- F A- C 31% 24% 45% D- C- D A+ A A+ F F F F C- A+ F F 42% 11% 47% F F A+ B A+ C+ F D- F
1.10 63% 17% 39% 0 -1 1.00 25% 1.7 .42 11% .18 50% .09 1.24 58% 20% 52% +11 +2 1.27 24% 1.0 .24 19% .44 74% .33
Jan
2		 Le Moyne F D F D+ F+ 24% 28% 48% F F D+ F F C- B F D- F D- C F F 38% 17% 45% C F F F F C+ A- A+ A+
0.86 50% 21% 33% -7 -2 0.84 28% 0.5 .14 15% .35 55% .19 1.25 67% 38% 52% +16 0 1.34 38% 1.3 .48 21% .26 57% .15
Jan
4		 Fairleigh Dickinson C F A B D+ 22% 24% 53% F+ D D A+ A C A+ A+ A+ F F F A+ D- 33% 24% 43% B- D A F F+ F F F F
1.18 45% 50% 38% +4 -2 1.06 23% 1.7 .40 15% .49 83% .41 1.14 69% 50% 24% 0 -1 1.00 23% 1.6 .37 13% .52 79% .41
Jan
8		 Wagner D+ B C- D+ C 40% 17% 44% C- C D+ C+ C- D- D+ A+ B- C- F A+ A+ C- 35% 26% 39% B- C- F C+ F+ C+ F A D
1.09 63% 38% 33% +1 +1 1.06 28% 1.1 .31 17% .35 84% .30 1.06 88% 17% 22% -2 -1 0.96 42% 1.0 .42 20% .37 63% .23
Jan
10		 LIU Brooklyn F F F+ A+ C+ 38% 26% 36% D- C F A+ F D- F F F A- A B+ A+ A+ 47% 33% 20% B A+ F F F A+ F A- F
0.88 42% 31% 50% +1 -1 1.02 10% 1.3 .13 21% .25 57% .14 0.94 48% 33% 0% -17 -1 0.67 51% 1.2 .61 27% .48 60% .29
Jan
17		 Central Connecticut St. A- B- C+ A A- 18% 30% 52% F B- A C+ A- A- A F B+ F F D F F 28% 34% 38% C+ F A+ F B F F D+ F
1.32 60% 41% 41% +7 -3 1.11 41% 1.1 .44 9% .35 73% .26 1.43 85% 44% 56% +22 -3 1.40 16% 1.3 .20 10% .55 79% .44
Jan
19		 Stonehill F F F C- F 45% 25% 29% C- F D B C- B A+ F A+ C C- A+ C- D 50% 5% 45% F D- B- D- C A+ F F F
0.93 43% 15% 33% -13 0 0.76 23% 1.2 .28 10% .46 61% .28 0.90 55% 0% 33% -4 +3 1.00 25% 1.0 .25 31% .45 76% .34
Jan
23		 Chicago St. C A+ F+ A+ A+ 28% 22% 50% F A+ F+ F F C D A+ C B B- A+ D- C+ 26% 38% 36% B C+ F A+ C B+ B+ A+ A+
1.21 92% 30% 48% +18 -1 1.37 27% 0.7 .18 19% .30 88% .26 0.90 50% 25% 37% -6 -3 0.85 37% 0.7 .26 19% .20 45% .09
Jan
31		 New Haven D- B- F D D- 44% 18% 38% C D- D B C- C+ B+ F C F F A+ F F 36% 20% 43% C- F B- F C- D- F F+ F
1.04 64% 11% 32% -4 +1 0.96 23% 1.3 .29 15% .32 67% .21 1.22 81% 0% 53% +13 0 1.27 19% 1.2 .22 15% .48 78% .37
Feb
5		 Mercyhurst B- C- B- A+ B+ 44% 18% 39% C B+ C- F F+ D+ D+ D D F A- F A B 41% 22% 37% F C+ F F F B- F F F
1.15 56% 40% 45% +6 +1 1.16 32% 0.8 .24 19% .35 68% .24 1.27 45% 58% 25% -6 0 0.91 49% 1.4 .67 17% .47 80% .37
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Le Moyne C F F+ A+ B 29% 29% 43% F C+ C- B C D+ A+ F B D- F B F F 55% 7% 38% F F C+ A B A+ F B- F
1.09 38% 25% 54% +3 -2 1.05 29% 1.2 .34 16% .42 63% .26 1.12 87% 33% 44% +21 +3 1.50 23% 0.8 .18 27% .56 68% .38
Feb
9		 Chicago St. D- A+ A+ F F+ 32% 7% 61% C+ D- C B- C+ F A+ C- A+ F+ D A B C 38% 24% 38% F C- F F F B F D F
1.06 93% 67% 19% -1 +1 1.02 35% 1.2 .41 25% .53 75% .40 1.13 59% 27% 29% -5 -1 0.91 40% 1.2 .49 18% .57 79% .45
Feb
12		 Fairleigh Dickinson F F F F F 37% 16% 47% C+ F B+ F C- C C+ D+ C C+ F F A+ F 28% 28% 44% A- D- B F F A F A+ F
0.90 50% 25% 22% -14 0 0.76 36% 0.7 .24 15% .36 70% .25 1.01 80% 60% 19% +2 -2 1.03 28% 1.8 .48 23% .56 57% .32
Feb
14		 Mercyhurst C B+ F+ A+ A- 55% 15% 30% B A- F C- F A- A+ F A F F F F F 38% 22% 40% F F F F F D F F F
1.15 65% 29% 43% +7 +2 1.19 19% 1.0 .19 15% .56 61% .34 1.37 79% 55% 40% +15 0 1.32 33% 1.5 .50 13% .30 89% .27
Feb
19		 LIU Brooklyn B- D+ A+ A+ A+ 55% 12% 33% B+ A+ B- F F F B- A+ A- F F C+ F F 60% 24% 16% F+ F B- A+ A F D- A+ C
1.16 54% 50% 65% +14 +2 1.35 38% 0.5 .21 27% .36 80% .29 1.18 73% 38% 56% +14 +1 1.33 32% 0.6 .21 16% .34 55% .18
Feb
21		 Wagner F D F D F 44% 17% 40% C F B- F F+ F D- F F C F A+ A C 25% 18% 57% C+ C D A B- A- F F F
0.86 52% 13% 32% -8 +1 0.88 33% 0.6 .21 18% .32 47% .15 1.00 73% 25% 28% -4 -1 0.93 35% 0.8 .29 23% .46 78% .36
Feb
24		 New Haven B- A+ A+ F B 48% 19% 33% C+ B F+ A+ C+ F A- A+ A+ D F C- D+ F 26% 16% 58% C F A+ A+ A+ F D+ A+ C+
1.16 75% 63% 21% +6 +1 1.17 20% 1.8 .35 21% .34 100% .34 1.07 85% 38% 34% +7 0 1.16 12% 0.5 .06 10% .28 56% .16
Feb
26		 Stonehill C D- F C+ F+ 54% 21% 25% B- D- C+ A+ A D- A- F D+ F F A+ F F 46% 7% 47% F F F F F F C- F D-
1.05 48% 25% 36% -7 +1 0.89 30% 1.5 .44 15% .35 50% .18 1.41 69% 25% 44% +12 +2 1.30 34% 1.7 .59 11% .25 81% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 57.6 17.8 75.5 9th
10th 24.5 24.5 10th
Total 82.2 17.8 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10 17.8% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.5 17.4
5-11 82.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 1.4 80.8
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 16.0 98.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.6%
Lose Out 55.4%