St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -15.0 #360
Expected Predictive Rating -14.4 #342
Pace 71.4 #108
Improvement +3.0 #46

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #357 D- D- D- F D
Defense #341 F F B- C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #309 1.08 #273 -4.2 #317
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #89 0.67 #291 +0.7 #143
Three Pointers 41% #178 0.94 #269 -1.4 #240
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #314 -4.9 #314
Freethrows 10.6 #365 72% #220 7.6 #365
Second Chance 24.6% #327 0.99 #253 0.24 #323
Turnovers 19.0% #314
Total Offense -9.1 #357

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #122 1.35 #354 -5.2 #336
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #319 0.81 #274 +1.6 #76
Three Pointers 44% #102 1.15 #336 -4.3 #336
1st FG Attempt 1.18 #359 -7.9 #358
Freethrows 17.3 #186 72% #166 12.5 #182
Second Chance 33.8% #291 1.19 #324 0.40 #335
Turnovers 17.8% #101
Total Defense -5.9 #341

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.9% #296 1.6% #310
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.9% #299 14.1% #359
Possession Length 17.8 #228 16.1 #27
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #273 0.21 #306
Improvement +1.5 #98 +1.6 #91

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 2.0% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 22.2% 39.2% 15.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 33.4% 19.1% 38.8%
First Four1.4% 2.0% 1.2%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Connecticut St. (Home) - 27.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 30 - 9
Quad 46 - 146 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 54 @Oklahoma L 66 - 102 1% -11  0 - 1 -23 -7 D- D F -14 F F B
 Thu, Nov 6 45 @TCU L 63 - 104 1% -23  0 - 2 -26 -7 C- F C -15 F F A
 Tue, Nov 11 297 Mount St. Mary's L 66 - 74 34% -5  0 - 3 -19 -9 F F D- -10 F B+ B
 Tue, Nov 18 313 @Lehigh L 62 - 79 19% -9  0 - 4 -23 -15 F C- F -7 F F B-
 Mon, Nov 24 79 Belmont L 57 - 94 3% -16  0 - 5 -30 -15 F F F -13 F C- C
 Wed, Nov 26 125 Troy L 64 - 74 7% +2  0 - 6 -8 -11 C- F F +3 C C A+
 Mon, Dec 1 92 @Xavier L 74 - 96 2% -13  0 - 7 -13 -1 C- C D+ -10 D+ F D+
 Sun, Dec 7 254 @Radford L 56 - 89 12% -17  0 - 8 -35 -19 F F F -16 F F C+
 Sun, Dec 14 140 @Temple L 67 - 95 5% -17  0 - 9 -24 -6 D- B- F -18 F A- C
 Wed, Dec 17 12 @Florida L 61 - 102 0% -25  0 - 10 -18 -2 C C- C- -15 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 214 Robert Morris L 70 - 79 19% -2  0 - 11 -15 -0 C- A- A+ -15 F A+ C+
 Fri, Jan 2 295 Le Moyne L 58 - 84 34% -9  0 - 12 0 - 1 -37 -18 F F C -19 F F B
 Sun, Jan 4 351 Fairleigh Dickinson W 85 - 82 54% -0  1 - 12 1 - 1 -13 +2 F A+ B- -15 D- F F
 Thu, Jan 8 316 @Wagner W 71 - 69 21% -1  2 - 12 2 - 1 -4 +0 C C F -4 C D B
 Sat, Jan 10 219 @LIU Brooklyn L 63 - 67 9% -1  2 - 13 2 - 2 -4 -11 C F F +7 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 260 Central Connecticut St. L 68 - 74 27%
 Mon, Jan 19 344 Stonehill L 69 - 70 49%
 Fri, Jan 23 349 Chicago St. W 75 - 74 54%
 Sun, Jan 25 340 @New Haven L 63 - 70 26%
 Thu, Jan 29 349 @Chicago St. L 72 - 77 32%
 Sat, Jan 31 340 New Haven L 66 - 67 47%
 Thu, Feb 5 308 @Mercyhurst L 64 - 73 20%
 Sat, Feb 7 295 @Le Moyne L 70 - 80 17%
 Thu, Feb 12 351 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 71 - 76 32%
 Thu, Feb 19 219 LIU Brooklyn L 70 - 79 21%
 Sat, Feb 21 316 Wagner L 71 - 74 41%
 Thu, Feb 26 344 @Stonehill L 66 - 72 28%
 Sat, Feb 28 260 @Central Connecticut St. L 65 - 77 13%
Totals 6 - 22 6 - 11 -15 -9 D- D- D- -6 F F B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.4 1.4 0.1 0.0 4.6 4th
5th 0.7 3.6 2.6 0.4 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.5 4.3 4.9 1.0 0.0 10.7 6th
7th 0.4 4.1 7.6 1.9 0.1 14.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.3 9.8 3.9 0.2 18.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.9 10.1 4.8 0.4 21.2 9th
10th 1.6 5.9 8.4 4.2 0.5 0.0 20.5 10th
Total 1.6 6.8 13.9 19.0 19.6 17.0 11.3 6.5 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-3 23.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-4 13.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 0.5% 0.0    0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-3 0.1% 0.0 0.1
12-4 0.3% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3
11-5 1.1% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 0.1 1.0
10-6 2.9% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.1 2.8
9-7 6.5% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.2 6.3
8-8 11.3% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 11.1
7-9 17.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 16.8
6-10 19.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 19.4
5-11 19.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 18.8
4-12 13.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 13.8
3-13 6.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.7
2-14 1.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.6
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 16.0 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.5%