The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -13.4 349
Results Rating -12.2 340
Consistency 0.19 352
Pace 62.5 334
Improvement +3.4 57

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D- 339 D- D D+ D- C
Defense D- 339 F+ C- D+ B- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 321 D 52% 318 -5.1 340
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% 246 D 34% 309 -1.7 269
Three Pointers 49% 37 D 31% 310 +1.5 132
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 195 D- -5.2 342
1st FG Attempt D- 0.91 334
Second Chance D+ 26.7% 285 D 0.94 307 D 0.25 314
Opponents' Steals D+ 10.4% 273
Other Turnovers C- 7.7% 231
Turnovers D+ 18.0% 268
Freethrows D 0.26 311 D- 67% 341 D- 0.18 337
Total Offense D- -6.9 339

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 41% 299 F 16.0% 357
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F+ 9% 358 C- 5.8% 236
Three Pointers B 90% 51 C+ 0.7% 123
Total C 55% 195 D+ 6.7% 295

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 112 F+ 66% 349 +4.9 335
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 346 C- 39% 242 -2.1 30
Three Pointers 44% 80 D- 38% 342 +4.5 342
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +1.0 345 F+ +5.9 355
1st FG Attempt F+ 1.16 359
Second Chance D+ 33.0% 290 C 1.03 178 C- 0.34 256
Turnovers from Steals D+ 7.9% 300
Other Turnovers C- 7.0% 216
Turnovers D+ 14.9% 290
Freethrows C+ 0.29 144 B 70% 45 B- 0.20 107
Total Defense D- -6.5 339

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 94 D+ 8.4% 283
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 238 D 2.4% 320
Three Pointers C+ 82% 139 C- 0.7% 194
Total C 55% 177 D+ 4.1% 304

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.4 347 16.6 54
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 347 0.19 259
Consistency 0.14 287 0.14 295
Improvement -2.3 301 +5.7 7

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 353 349 343
Results Rating Rank 346 343 330
Conference Record 6 - 12 6 - 12 7 - 11
Conference Finish 9 9 8
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Wofford (Away) - 11.9% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 30 - 80 - 11
Quad 46 - 126 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 136 @Boston College L 47 - 76 6% -11  21% 0 - 1 F -25 F -20 F D D- D -6 C+ C- F
 Mon, Nov 10 264 Charleston Southern L 86 - 96 33% -0  48% 0 - 2 F -19 B- +4 A+ F C+ F -23 F F F
 Fri, Nov 14 312 @West Georgia L 92 - 100 24% -8  5% 0 - 3 D- -14 B +6 B- D- A- F -20 F F F
 Mon, Nov 24 292 Bellarmine L 58 - 70 40% -5  20% 0 - 4 F -23 F -21 F C F D+ -4 D+ C+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 294 Houston Christian L 65 - 72 40% -6  1% 0 - 5 F -18 D+ -3 F+ C+ B F -16 F F C-
 Sun, Nov 30 271 Presbyterian L 41 - 69 25% -19  0% 0 - 6 F -34 F -25 F D- F F -18 F F D-
 Thu, Dec 4 110 @Davidson L 63 - 79 4% -9  0% 0 - 7 D -9 C- -2 B D- F F+ -9 C D+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 91 @South Carolina L 55 - 71 3% -5  13% 0 - 8 D+ -7 F -12 F+ F B B +4 A- C- C-
 Wed, Dec 17 147 @College of Charleston L 78 - 82 6% +2  52% 0 - 9 C -0 C+ +3 B- C- D- D+ -4 F A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 20 130 @Richmond L 56 - 80 5% -11  0% 0 - 10 F -19 F -14 C- F+ F D- -7 F B+ D
 Tue, Dec 30 135 East Tennessee St. L 49 - 74 13% -13  8% 0 - 11 0 - 1 F -27 F -22 F C+ F D- -8 D F+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 229 Wofford L 86 - 95 26% -8  5% 0 - 12 0 - 2 F+ -16 B+ +9 B+ A+ F F -25 F B+ C
 Wed, Jan 7 181 @Mercer L 63 - 101 9% -21  0% 0 - 13 0 - 3 F -36 F+ -9 C- B F F -29 F F C
 Sat, Jan 10 244 Western Carolina W 79 - 77 OT 29% -2  29% 1 - 13 1 - 3 D+ -6 D+ -2 F+ A C- D+ -3 C A- F
 Thu, Jan 15 298 @UNC Greensboro L 66 - 69 OT 21% +4  67% 1 - 14 1 - 4 D+ -8 F -14 F+ F F+ B+ +6 C B D
 Sat, Jan 17 359 @VMI W 82 - 68 50% +10  92% 2 - 14 2 - 4 C +1 C +1 B- F D- C -0 F+ B C-
 Wed, Jan 21 171 Furman W 77 - 75 OT 19% -6  19% 3 - 14 3 - 4 C- -2 C +1 D B+ C C- -3 C A F
 Fri, Jan 23 135 @East Tennessee St. L 55 - 84 6% -18  8% 3 - 15 3 - 5 F -25 F -13 D- F B+ F -14 F F F+
 Thu, Jan 29 359 VMI W 80 - 56 72% +12  87% 4 - 15 4 - 5 C+ +5 C+ +2 A F B B +5 C A- C+
 Sat, Jan 31 298 UNC Greensboro W 71 - 66 OT 41% +2  62% 5 - 15 5 - 5 D+ -6 F -11 D+ F A B +5 B D B
 Thu, Feb 5 195 @Samford L 64 - 78 9% -6  0% 5 - 16 5 - 6 D- -13 D- -7 D- B F+ D- -7 F A- B-
 Sat, Feb 7 282 @Chattanooga W 78 - 71 18% +2  81% 6 - 16 6 - 6 C+ +3 C+ +2 B- C+ C+ C+ +1 C+ F B-
 Wed, Feb 11 244 @Western Carolina L 49 - 87 14% -26  0% 6 - 17 6 - 7 F -40 F -24 F F+ F+ F -21 F F F+
 Sat, Feb 14 181 Mercer L 54 - 70 20% +1  54% 6 - 18 6 - 8 F -20 F -18 F B+ F+ D+ -4 F A B+
 Thu, Feb 19 195 Samford L 75 - 78 21% -5  20% 6 - 19 6 - 9 D+ -8 D -6 D- D+ A C- -2 F B+ A
 Sat, Feb 21 282 Chattanooga L 72 - 93 37% -18  0% 6 - 20 6 - 10 F -31 F -11 F D- B- F -19 F F+ A-
 Wed, Feb 25 171 @Furman L 51 - 72 8% -5  8% 6 - 21 6 - 11 F -19 F -14 D- F B F+ -9 A- F C-
 Sat, Feb 28 229 @Wofford L 67 - 80 12%
Totals 6 - 22 6 - 12 -13 D- -7 A+ D- C D- -6 D D- D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D- D D D D- 33% 31% 49% C D- D+ D D D+ D D- D- D- F+ C- D- F+ 41% 14% 44% D- F+ D+ C C- D+ C+ B B-
0.99 52% 34% 31% -5 0 0.91 27% 0.9 .25 18% .26 67% .18 1.18 66% 39% 38% +6 +1 1.16 33% 1.0 .34 15% .29 70% .18
Nov
6		 Boston College F F F F F 40% 10% 50% A- F F+ C D D- A F C- D F F A+ B- 33% 16% 51% D- C+ D+ C C- F F B+ F
0.71 42% 0% 21% -20 +1 0.65 20% 0.9 .17 18% .37 50% .19 1.15 71% 63% 19% -3 0 0.96 33% 1.0 .33 6% .45 61% .27
Nov
10		 Charleston Southern B- A A+ A A+ 35% 33% 33% D- A+ F F F C+ A+ D A- F D F F F 45% 7% 47% D- F F C- F F F F F
1.19 67% 53% 41% +11 -2 1.21 19% 0.7 .13 11% .47 67% .31 1.33 64% 50% 42% +9 +2 1.25 40% 0.9 .37 12% .33 76% .25
Nov
14		 West Georgia B C- A+ B+ C+ 52% 14% 33% B- B- C- F D- A- D+ C C- F F C F F 48% 32% 20% F+ F F F F F F B- F
1.21 58% 56% 38% +4 +2 1.14 29% 0.7 .21 11% .31 71% .22 1.32 70% 39% 45% +10 -1 1.20 39% 1.3 .48 12% .40 67% .27
Nov
24		 Bellarmine F C+ F F F 38% 22% 40% C- F A+ F C F C+ D- C- D+ D+ A+ F D 43% 13% 43% C D+ A- F C+ F C- A+ A-
0.97 65% 20% 17% -12 0 0.78 49% 0.8 .41 20% .33 69% .23 1.16 65% 17% 45% +7 +1 1.20 14% 1.5 .21 12% .30 56% .17
Nov
26		 Houston Christian D+ D+ F B+ F+ 30% 15% 55% D+ F+ C B C+ B F+ A+ C- F F F C+ F 38% 13% 49% D- F F+ F F C- C A B-
1.11 57% 0% 38% -2 0 0.98 32% 1.2 .39 15% .22 91% .20 1.23 82% 50% 32% +9 +1 1.22 35% 1.1 .38 17% .27 62% .16
Nov
30		 Presbyterian F F C F F 28% 25% 48% F F D- D- D- F C+ F F+ F C F F F 33% 19% 48% C- F F+ F F D- A+ A+ A+
0.76 18% 40% 26% -16 -1 0.68 25% 0.9 .22 20% .30 46% .14 1.27 57% 50% 45% +10 0 1.21 38% 1.6 .58 17% .20 56% .11
Dec
4		 Davidson C- C+ A+ F B 33% 24% 43% C B F C D- F D+ F D F+ B+ F+ F+ C 35% 16% 49% D+ C D+ C- D+ F F B D
0.99 60% 73% 25% +3 -1 1.07 21% 1.0 .21 22% .28 57% .16 1.24 50% 50% 40% +3 0 1.10 34% 1.1 .37 9% .36 62% .22
Dec
13		 South Carolina F C- C+ F F 42% 27% 31% C F+ D+ F F B A F C B D F+ A+ A+ 49% 8% 43% F A- D- B C- C- D F+ F+
0.83 55% 38% 13% -11 -1 0.79 26% 0.6 .15 14% .35 55% .19 1.07 67% 50% 14% -7 +2 0.92 33% 1.0 .33 14% .37 86% .31
Dec
17		 College of Charleston C+ F+ D- A B- 27% 17% 56% C+ B- C- C- C- D- F+ F F D+ F D B- F 33% 12% 55% D- F A+ F A+ D+ F C- F
1.08 50% 30% 39% +1 0 1.03 29% 0.9 .26 17% .17 60% .10 1.14 86% 40% 30% +7 +1 1.17 10% 1.3 .14 15% .67 76% .51
Dec
20		 Richmond F F A- C- D+ 31% 23% 46% C+ C- D F F+ F F F F D- F F B F 24% 22% 55% C- F D+ A+ B+ D C A B-
0.87 47% 45% 32% -3 -1 0.94 26% 0.9 .24 25% .14 57% .08 1.24 100% 64% 32% +14 -1 1.27 28% 0.7 .19 12% .34 68% .23
Dec
30		 East Tennessee St. F B- F F F 24% 11% 64% C- F C+ C+ C+ F C- F D- D- C- B+ D- D+ 51% 13% 36% F+ D F C F+ B- D F F
0.78 64% 0% 24% -12 0 0.78 31% 1.0 .31 27% .28 62% .17 1.17 61% 33% 38% +3 +2 1.11 35% 1.1 .38 17% .36 84% .31
Jan
3		 Wofford B+ C F A+ B+ 43% 14% 43% C B+ A A+ A+ F C A+ B F C- B F F 38% 6% 56% D- F F A+ B+ C D+ D D
1.29 57% 29% 48% +7 +1 1.18 41% 1.7 .70 20% .30 88% .26 1.43 58% 33% 61% +22 +2 1.50 38% 0.5 .21 15% .35 75% .27
Jan
7		 Mercer F+ F A B D+ 34% 10% 56% B C- C A B F C- C- C- F D F F F 35% 12% 53% D- F F F F C D+ F F
0.96 43% 50% 39% 0 +1 1.05 32% 1.2 .39 27% .25 75% .19 1.54 65% 50% 54% +20 +1 1.43 48% 1.3 .60 17% .37 90% .33
Jan
10		 Western Carolina D+ D C- D F 35% 20% 45% C- F+ A B+ A C- A+ A- A+ D+ D B+ B C 35% 15% 50% D+ C B+ A- A- F B- A B+
1.13 53% 40% 32% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.1 .42 16% .47 82% .39 1.10 62% 33% 30% -2 0 0.98 29% 0.8 .24 11% .26 63% .16
Jan
15		 UNC Greensboro F F D- C+ F 28% 17% 56% C F+ F F F F+ F+ A+ D B+ F C+ A+ C 44% 27% 29% C- C F A+ B D B A+ A+
0.96 47% 33% 37% -2 0 0.98 22% 0.8 .16 17% .19 82% .16 1.01 70% 36% 20% -2 0 0.98 36% 0.6 .21 13% .32 47% .15
Jan
17		 VMI C F A+ A+ C+ 47% 9% 44% A B- D- F F D- A+ A+ A+ C C+ A+ D+ D- 47% 2% 51% F F+ A D B C- F A- F
1.21 50% 75% 47% +9 +2 1.23 32% 0.5 .16 19% .58 84% .49 1.00 52% 0% 35% -3 +3 1.02 18% 1.0 .18 16% .49 64% .32
Jan
21		 Furman C A F F D- 37% 10% 53% B+ D C A+ B+ C A+ A- A+ C- F B- A+ C 44% 9% 47% D C C- A+ A F C+ F D+
1.10 67% 20% 23% -7 +1 0.90 31% 1.3 .38 14% .50 77% .38 1.07 75% 40% 23% 0 +2 1.05 31% 0.6 .18 14% .27 81% .22
Jan
23		 East Tennessee St. F F F A+ F+ 31% 16% 53% D+ D- F F+ F B+ C- F F F F F D- F 37% 8% 55% D- F D+ F F F+ C+ B+ B
0.86 40% 0% 42% -5 0 0.92 13% 0.8 .10 16% .28 40% .11 1.31 78% 50% 37% +11 +1 1.27 30% 1.5 .44 12% .30 71% .21
Jan
29		 VMI C+ A+ F A+ A+ 13% 15% 73% D A C F F B D+ F F B B- A+ C C+ 36% 14% 50% C- C A- A A- C+ A F B+
1.27 83% 29% 49% +18 -1 1.35 38% 0.4 .16 14% .28 47% .13 0.89 50% 14% 32% -8 +1 0.88 19% 0.7 .14 17% .19 80% .15
Jan
31		 UNC Greensboro F B D+ C+ C- 23% 26% 51% F+ D+ D F F A B+ F+ B- B F A+ A+ A- 35% 17% 48% D- B D+ D D B D- A+ B-
1.05 67% 36% 37% +4 -2 1.06 26% 0.2 .05 9% .32 65% .21 0.97 71% 25% 22% -7 0 0.90 29% 1.1 .32 18% .41 57% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Samford D- C A+ F D- 30% 34% 36% D D- A- C- B F+ C- F F D- D+ F F F 30% 24% 46% B F D A+ A- B- F C- F
0.99 57% 56% 18% -3 -2 0.91 34% 1.1 .37 17% .28 47% .13 1.20 64% 45% 48% +13 -1 1.26 28% 0.6 .17 15% .47 69% .33
Feb
7		 Chattanooga C+ A+ B- F C+ 40% 10% 50% B+ B- F A+ C+ C+ F A+ F C+ D D A C+ 31% 20% 48% C C+ F D F B- A+ C+ A+
1.15 76% 40% 27% +2 +2 1.10 21% 1.8 .39 13% .22 85% .19 1.04 65% 45% 27% -2 0 0.98 29% 1.2 .35 18% .14 75% .11
Feb
11		 Western Carolina F F F F F 36% 16% 49% C+ F D- D- F+ F+ D A+ B- F D- A+ F F 53% 4% 43% F F F+ F F F+ A A+ A+
0.78 44% 14% 23% -17 0 0.69 21% 0.9 .18 19% .28 93% .26 1.39 63% 0% 45% +9 +3 1.25 40% 1.6 .63 13% .20 55% .11
Feb
14		 Mercer F F B F F 29% 24% 47% D- F D A+ B+ F+ C- A+ B- D+ C- A+ F F 42% 19% 40% D F A B+ A B+ D+ A+ B-
0.88 23% 45% 24% -15 -1 0.69 29% 1.4 .40 21% .25 92% .23 1.14 61% 25% 53% +10 +1 1.23 26% 0.9 .22 19% .36 61% .22
Feb
19		 Samford D C- F B- D- 29% 27% 44% C- D- F A+ D+ A F C F C- F A- F F 39% 14% 47% D- F D A+ B+ A B- A+ A-
1.06 56% 24% 37% -3 -2 0.94 17% 1.6 .26 8% .12 75% .09 1.10 79% 29% 39% +10 +1 1.24 27% 0.7 .18 18% .33 58% .19
Feb
21		 Chattanooga F D- F D- F 22% 11% 67% C- F B F D- B- A+ F D F F F F F 30% 16% 54% C- F D+ F F+ A- D+ C- D+
1.00 50% 0% 31% -9 0 0.83 38% 0.8 .29 12% .51 44% .22 1.29 80% 63% 48% +22 0 1.46 23% 1.4 .32 19% .29 76% .22
Feb
25		 Furman F F A+ F F 36% 8% 56% A- D- F A F B F F F F+ B+ F+ A+ A+ 53% 5% 43% F A- F C- F C- F F F
0.85 44% 75% 25% -10 +1 0.86 14% 1.2 .17 12% .15 25% .04 1.20 52% 50% 24% -9 +3 0.90 56% 1.0 .56 18% .51 76% .39



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 10.5 11.9 22.4 8th
9th 77.6 77.6 9th
10th 10th
Total 88.1 11.9 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 11.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.9
6-12 88.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 88.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 66.0%