The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.8#358
Expected Predictive Rating-21.5#362
Pace63.4#325
Improvement+0.5#128

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#279
First Shot-2.8#259
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#254
Layup/Dunks-0.5#204
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#271
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#136
Freethrows-2.0#299
Improvement-0.8#262

Defense
Total Defense-9.7#365
First Shot-7.5#360
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#308
Layups/Dunks-6.0#346
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#236
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#235
Freethrows+0.3#164
Improvement+1.4#53
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 3.2% 5.4% 2.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 60.3% 52.8% 62.5%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Presbyterian (Neutral) - 23.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 44 - 134 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 127 @Boston College L 47-76 5%     0 - 1 -23.8 -17.4 -8.2
  Mon, Nov 10 282 Charleston Southern L 86-96 34%     0 - 2 -19.5 +6.1 -25.4
  Fri, Nov 14 311 @West Georgia L 92-100 20%     0 - 3 -13.0 +10.1 -22.5
  Mon, Nov 24 294 Bellarmine L 58-70 37%     0 - 4 -22.4 -14.3 -10.1
  Wed, Nov 26 276 Houston Christian L 65-72 33%     0 - 5 -16.3 +0.4 -18.0
  Sun, Nov 30 275 Presbyterian L 63-71 23%    
  Thu, Dec 4 135 @Davidson L 61-80 4%    
  Sat, Dec 13 88 @South Carolina L 60-83 2%    
  Wed, Dec 17 151 @College of Charleston L 64-81 6%    
  Sat, Dec 20 115 @Richmond L 63-83 3%    
  Wed, Dec 31 137 East Tennessee St. L 64-76 13%    
  Sat, Jan 3 225 Wofford L 71-78 26%    
  Wed, Jan 7 206 @Mercer L 70-84 11%    
  Sat, Jan 10 278 Western Carolina L 72-76 34%    
  Thu, Jan 15 287 @UNC Greensboro L 67-77 18%    
  Sat, Jan 17 342 @VMI L 71-77 31%    
  Wed, Jan 21 160 Furman L 66-76 18%    
  Sat, Jan 24 137 @East Tennessee St. L 61-79 5%    
  Thu, Jan 29 342 VMI W 74-73 52%    
  Sat, Jan 31 287 UNC Greensboro L 70-74 36%    
  Thu, Feb 5 221 @Samford L 67-80 12%    
  Sat, Feb 7 188 @Chattanooga L 66-81 9%    
  Wed, Feb 11 278 @Western Carolina L 69-79 18%    
  Sat, Feb 14 206 Mercer L 73-81 25%    
  Thu, Feb 19 221 Samford L 70-77 26%    
  Sat, Feb 21 188 Chattanooga L 69-78 21%    
  Wed, Feb 25 160 @Furman L 63-79 8%    
  Sat, Feb 28 225 @Wofford L 68-81 13%    
Projected Record 4 - 24 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 4th
5th 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.5 0.6 0.0 3.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.2 2.6 1.0 0.1 6.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.8 4.4 1.5 0.2 12.8 8th
9th 0.3 2.0 6.4 8.5 6.3 1.9 0.2 0.0 25.7 9th
10th 4.5 11.4 14.0 11.0 5.6 1.4 0.1 47.9 10th
Total 4.5 11.6 16.1 17.6 15.8 13.2 8.8 5.8 3.4 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 0.0%
13-5 42.9% 0.0    0.0
12-6 13.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.4% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4
10-8 0.8% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.8
9-9 1.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 1.8
8-10 3.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.4
7-11 5.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 5.8
6-12 8.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.7
5-13 13.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.2
4-14 15.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.8
3-15 17.6% 17.6
2-16 16.1% 16.1
1-17 11.6% 11.6
0-18 4.5% 4.5
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.3%