UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.7 #188
Expected Predictive Rating -0.4 #170
Pace 70.7 #134
Improvement -2.3 #295

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #161 B+ D+ C- B- C-
Defense #233 D+ C C D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #317 1.30 #51 -0.6 #206
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #169 0.81 #95 +0.9 #133
Three Pointers 46% #92 1.10 #66 +4.4 #43
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #57 +4.6 #57
Freethrows 18.1 #137 77% #57 13.9 #109
Second Chance 25.1% #321 1.11 #108 0.28 #269
Turnovers 17.5% #237
Total Offense +0.2 #161

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #153 1.20 #240 -1.6 #235
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #262 0.63 #34 +2.1 #42
Three Pointers 43% #135 1.13 #324 -3.3 #307
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #271 -2.7 #270
Freethrows 19.3 #280 74% #272 14.4 #66
Second Chance 29.6% #139 1.05 #188 0.31 #156
Turnovers 16.8% #169
Total Defense -1.8 #233

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.9% #247 0.9% #246
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.0% #44 4.4% #268
Possession Length 16.1 #67 17.8 #264
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #164 0.20 #265
Improvement +2.1 #69 -4.3 #354

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 5.1% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.1
.500 or above 60.0% 68.6% 41.8%
.500 or above in Conference 56.8% 65.8% 37.7%
Conference Champion 1.6% 2.2% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 4.3% 2.1% 8.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round4.3% 5.1% 2.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Fullerton (Home) - 67.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 66 - 10
Quad 49 - 416 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 148 North Dakota St. W 80 - 68 53% +2  1 - 0 +10 +6 A+ A+ F +4 A+ D C+
 Sun, Nov 9 233 @Portland L 63 - 67 47% +0  1 - 1 -5 -10 F B- F +5 B+ A A+
 Fri, Nov 14 307 Sacramento St. W 77 - 73 82% -2  2 - 1 -8 -4 F C D -4 D C A-
 Tue, Nov 18 85 @Nevada W 75 - 71 14% -0  3 - 1 +14 +1 A+ F F +13 C+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 73 @Colorado L 79 - 95 12% -6  3 - 2 -5 +10 B A+ D -15 F D+ C-
 Mon, Nov 24 315 Louisiana W 77 - 56 84% +8  4 - 2 +9 +6 A+ D+ B- +4 C+ B A-
 Thu, Dec 4 104 @Hawaii L 69 - 75 18% -6  4 - 3 0 - 1 +2 +3 B- D C+ -1 F B- B
 Sat, Dec 13 72 @Oregon L 62 - 104 12% -30  4 - 4 -31 -8 F F F -22 F F C-
 Wed, Dec 17 121 Seattle L 78 - 79 45% -4  4 - 5 -2 +5 A+ F A- -6 C F A
 Sun, Dec 21 196 @Idaho St. W 93 - 83 40% +8  5 - 5 +11 +24 A+ C A+ -12 F C- C
 Thu, Jan 1 216 Cal St. Northridge W 89 - 80 67% +6  6 - 5 1 - 1 +3 +5 A+ F F -3 C- B A-
 Sat, Jan 3 293 Cal St. Bakersfield L 79 - 81 80% +2  6 - 6 1 - 2 -13 +0 C D+ D- -13 D- D F
 Thu, Jan 8 181 @UC Santa Barbara W 93 - 86 38% -3  7 - 6 2 - 2 +8 +17 A+ B- B -8 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 249 @Cal Poly L 78 - 84 51% +6  7 - 7 2 - 3 -8 +0 D D C -8 C+ D+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 231 Cal St. Fullerton W 85 - 80 68%
 Sat, Jan 17 122 UC Irvine L 72 - 73 45%
 Thu, Jan 22 109 UC San Diego L 74 - 77 40%
 Sat, Jan 24 287 UC Riverside W 79 - 70 79%
 Thu, Jan 29 216 @Cal St. Northridge L 80 - 82 44%
 Sat, Jan 31 293 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 78 - 75 61%
 Thu, Feb 5 181 UC Santa Barbara W 77 - 74 60%
 Sat, Feb 7 249 Cal Poly W 86 - 80 72%
 Thu, Feb 12 109 @UC San Diego L 71 - 80 21%
 Sat, Feb 14 264 Long Beach St. W 79 - 72 74%
 Thu, Feb 19 231 @Cal St. Fullerton L 82 - 83 47%
 Sat, Feb 21 287 @UC Riverside W 76 - 73 59%
 Thu, Feb 26 104 Hawaii L 71 - 75 37%
 Thu, Mar 5 264 @Long Beach St. W 76 - 75 54%
 Sat, Mar 7 122 @UC Irvine L 69 - 76 26%
Totals 15 - 14 10 - 10 -2 +0 B+ D+ C- -2 D+ C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.9 0.7 0.1 5.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 4.4 3.9 1.1 0.1 11.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.8 8.1 6.1 1.5 0.1 20.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 3.4 7.8 4.7 0.8 0.0 16.9 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 6.7 4.4 0.6 0.0 13.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 5.2 4.2 0.8 0.0 11.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.3 3.9 0.9 0.0 8.7 8th
9th 0.2 1.7 3.1 0.9 0.0 6.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.7 0.1 3.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.8 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 4.2 8.3 12.3 15.6 17.0 15.1 11.9 7.5 3.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 81.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 42.2% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 14.1% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.3% 23.8% 23.8% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 1.4% 22.0% 22.0% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.1
14-6 3.6% 19.9% 19.9% 13.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 2.9
13-7 7.5% 10.3% 10.3% 13.5 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 6.7
12-8 11.9% 7.2% 7.2% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 11.0
11-9 15.1% 4.8% 4.8% 14.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 14.4
10-10 17.0% 2.4% 2.4% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 16.6
9-11 15.6% 2.1% 2.1% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 15.3
8-12 12.3% 0.6% 0.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 12.3
7-13 8.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.3
6-14 4.2% 4.2
5-15 1.9% 1.9
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 13.9 95.7 0.0%