UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#178
Expected Predictive Rating+3.4#125
Pace67.5#242
Improvement-0.3#200

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#244
First Shot-1.1#202
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#275
Layup/Dunks+0.2#167
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#247
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#241
Freethrows+1.5#97
Improvement-0.4#223

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#127
First Shot-0.1#171
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#107
Layups/Dunks+0.8#148
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#126
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#280
Freethrows+0.4#156
Improvement+0.1#185
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 9.2% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.3 13.6
.500 or above 65.8% 83.2% 60.6%
.500 or above in Conference 64.4% 82.3% 59.1%
Conference Champion 5.8% 13.0% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 0.9% 4.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round5.8% 9.2% 4.7%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hawaii (Away) - 22.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 66 - 10
Quad 411 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 155 North Dakota St. W 80-68 57%     1 - 0 +8.8 +8.1 +0.9
  Sun, Nov 9 274 @Portland L 63-67 57%     1 - 1 -7.2 -10.7 +3.5
  Fri, Nov 14 272 Sacramento St. W 77-73 77%     2 - 1 -5.0 -2.5 -2.7
  Tue, Nov 18 122 @Nevada W 75-71 25%     3 - 1 +9.8 +1.0 +8.6
  Fri, Nov 21 72 @Colorado L 79-95 13%     3 - 2 -5.2 +9.1 -14.4
  Mon, Nov 24 304 Louisiana W 77-56 81%     4 - 2 +10.2 +5.5 +6.2
  Fri, Dec 5 110 @Hawaii L 66-74 23%    
  Sat, Dec 13 80 @Oregon L 65-77 14%    
  Wed, Dec 17 116 Seattle L 68-70 44%    
  Sun, Dec 21 230 @Idaho St. L 66-67 49%    
  Thu, Jan 1 220 Cal St. Northridge W 78-73 69%    
  Sat, Jan 3 271 Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-67 76%    
  Thu, Jan 8 141 @UC Santa Barbara L 68-73 31%    
  Sat, Jan 10 245 @Cal Poly W 78-77 50%    
  Thu, Jan 15 324 Cal St. Fullerton W 83-73 83%    
  Sat, Jan 17 133 UC Irvine L 66-67 49%    
  Thu, Jan 22 96 UC San Diego L 70-74 36%    
  Sat, Jan 24 257 UC Riverside W 73-66 73%    
  Thu, Jan 29 220 @Cal St. Northridge L 75-76 49%    
  Sat, Jan 31 271 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 71-70 55%    
  Thu, Feb 5 141 UC Santa Barbara W 71-70 52%    
  Sat, Feb 7 245 Cal Poly W 81-75 70%    
  Thu, Feb 12 96 @UC San Diego L 67-77 19%    
  Sat, Feb 14 298 Long Beach St. W 75-66 79%    
  Thu, Feb 19 324 @Cal St. Fullerton W 80-76 65%    
  Sat, Feb 21 257 @UC Riverside W 70-69 53%    
  Thu, Feb 26 110 Hawaii L 69-71 43%    
  Thu, Mar 5 298 @Long Beach St. W 72-69 61%    
  Sat, Mar 7 133 @UC Irvine L 64-70 29%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.5 2.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 9.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 3.1 4.7 3.2 1.0 0.1 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.2 5.6 3.2 0.7 0.0 15.0 4th
5th 0.2 1.6 5.0 5.7 2.6 0.4 0.0 15.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 5.2 4.5 1.6 0.1 0.0 13.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 3.9 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 2.9 2.6 0.8 0.1 7.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 2.2 1.8 0.6 0.0 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.4 4.4 6.4 9.0 11.1 11.9 12.5 11.8 10.0 8.0 5.1 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 96.2% 0.6    0.5 0.0
17-3 84.0% 1.2    0.9 0.3 0.0
16-4 55.6% 1.6    0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 28.3% 1.4    0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0
14-6 7.9% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.8% 5.8 3.2 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.2% 59.3% 59.3% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.6% 32.2% 32.2% 12.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
17-3 1.4% 35.4% 35.4% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.9
16-4 2.9% 25.8% 25.8% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 2.1
15-5 5.1% 15.0% 15.0% 13.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 4.3
14-6 8.0% 13.3% 13.3% 13.5 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.0
13-7 10.0% 9.2% 9.2% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 9.1
12-8 11.8% 4.9% 4.9% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 11.2
11-9 12.5% 3.5% 3.5% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 12.1
10-10 11.9% 1.9% 1.9% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.7
9-11 11.1% 1.2% 1.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.0
8-12 9.0% 0.6% 0.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0
7-13 6.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.4
6-14 4.4% 4.4
5-15 2.4% 2.4
4-16 1.4% 1.4
3-17 0.6% 0.6
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 13.5 0.1 0.9 2.0 1.8 0.8 0.2 94.2 0.0%