UC Riverside
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.3 #287
Expected Predictive Rating -5.9 #256
Pace 67.5 #227
Improvement -1.7 #270

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #282 C F D C C
Defense #274 D C+ F C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #95 1.15 #188 +1.7 #118
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #162 0.74 #198 +0.1 #170
Three Pointers 37% #266 1.08 #100 -0.9 #221
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #152 +1.0 #154
Freethrows 17.2 #197 74% #147 12.7 #172
Second Chance 23.0% #349 0.87 #343 0.20 #358
Turnovers 18.6% #297
Total Offense -4.0 #282

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #56 1.22 #259 -4.2 #312
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #97 0.86 #321 -2.3 #334
Three Pointers 33% #349 1.07 #260 +3.0 #70
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #289 -3.5 #289
Freethrows 17.7 #208 68% #32 12.1 #205
Second Chance 30.4% #167 0.96 #84 0.29 #119
Turnovers 13.6% #332
Total Defense -3.2 #274

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #168 0.1% #171
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.6% #154 6.8% #302
Possession Length 18.0 #244 16.5 #66
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #307 0.18 #199
Improvement -1.9 #293 +0.2 #172

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.6
.500 or above 0.5% 1.0% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 6.5% 13.1% 3.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 43.3% 24.8% 52.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Long Beach St. (Away) - 33.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 82 - 15
Quad 47 - 69 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 319 @North Dakota W 74 - 70 47% +5  1 - 0 -2 -4 C+ F F +1 F A+ D-
 Tue, Nov 11 48 @New Mexico L 68 - 82 3% -5  1 - 1 +0 +7 A+ F D -8 D+ B- F
 Sat, Nov 15 319 North Dakota L 74 - 76 69% -0  1 - 2 -14 -10 C+ F F -4 F A D-
 Tue, Nov 18 157 @California Baptist L 57 - 80 16% -15  1 - 3 -20 -18 F F F -0 C+ B+ D+
 Fri, Nov 21 222 @San Diego W 85 - 71 25% +10  2 - 3 +14 +15 A+ C A+ -1 B+ C- C-
 Mon, Nov 24 269 Grambling St. W 83 - 74 57% -1  3 - 3 -0 +8 A+ F C- -8 B+ C- F
 Sat, Nov 29 232 @Utah Tech L 69 - 77 27% -4  3 - 4 -9 +3 B- D+ D+ -12 D- D- F
 Thu, Dec 4 122 @UC Irvine L 60 - 73 12% -11  3 - 5 0 - 1 -8 -5 F F A- -3 F A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 249 @Cal Poly W 88 - 84 31% +7  4 - 5 1 - 1 +2 +13 B+ C- A+ -11 F A+ D
 Sat, Dec 13 11 @BYU L 53 - 100 1% -14  4 - 6 -24 -13 C- F F -7 F A+ C
 Sat, Dec 20 128 @St. Thomas L 78 - 92 13% -7  4 - 7 -9 +7 B- F C -16 F C- F
 Tue, Dec 23 38 @UCLA L 65 - 97 3% -14  4 - 8 -16 -7 C+ F F -5 B- F D+
 Thu, Jan 1 104 Hawaii L 45 - 88 19% -21  4 - 9 1 - 2 -41 -18 F F D -28 F F C
 Thu, Jan 8 293 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 66 - 67 40% -0  4 - 10 1 - 3 -6 -8 C F F +2 A- F B
 Sat, Jan 10 109 UC San Diego L 66 - 69 21% +1  4 - 11 1 - 4 -2 -1 D- B- F -1 C- B- A
 Thu, Jan 15 264 @Long Beach St. L 71 - 75 34%
 Sat, Jan 17 231 Cal St. Fullerton L 79 - 80 48%
 Thu, Jan 22 122 UC Irvine L 66 - 73 26%
 Sat, Jan 24 188 @UC Davis L 70 - 79 21%
 Thu, Jan 29 264 Long Beach St. W 74 - 72 56%
 Sat, Jan 31 249 Cal Poly W 80 - 79 53%
 Thu, Feb 5 231 @Cal St. Fullerton L 76 - 83 27%
 Sat, Feb 7 216 @Cal St. Northridge L 74 - 81 25%
 Thu, Feb 12 181 UC Santa Barbara L 71 - 74 40%
 Sat, Feb 14 109 @UC San Diego L 65 - 79 9%
 Thu, Feb 19 293 Cal St. Bakersfield W 75 - 72 62%
 Sat, Feb 21 188 UC Davis L 73 - 76 41%
 Thu, Feb 26 181 @UC Santa Barbara L 68 - 77 21%
 Sat, Feb 28 216 Cal St. Northridge L 77 - 78 46%
 Fri, Mar 6 104 @Hawaii L 62 - 77 9%
Totals 9 - 21 6 - 14 -7 -4 C F D -3 D C+ F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 3.2 1.0 0.1 6.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 5.0 1.8 0.1 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 5.6 4.0 0.4 0.0 11.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 6.7 7.1 1.0 0.0 16.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.7 8.2 8.3 2.0 0.1 21.6 10th
11th 0.5 2.5 6.6 9.7 7.3 2.2 0.2 28.9 11th
Total 0.5 2.5 6.9 12.5 17.0 18.4 16.3 12.0 7.4 4.0 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 3.8% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.1% 7.7% 7.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-8 0.6% 3.3% 3.3% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.6
11-9 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 1.7
10-10 4.0% 0.5% 0.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 4.0
9-11 7.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.4
8-12 12.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.0
7-13 16.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.3
6-14 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 18.4
5-15 17.0% 17.0
4-16 12.5% 12.5
3-17 6.9% 6.9
2-18 2.5% 2.5
1-19 0.5% 0.5
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.6 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%