UC San Diego
Big West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.4#96
Expected Predictive Rating+14.5#32
Pace68.4#226
Improvement+1.6#65

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#71
First Shot+6.2#34
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#292
Layup/Dunks+2.0#111
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#262
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.6#12
Freethrows-1.8#294
Improvement+2.8#12

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#140
First Shot+5.0#45
After Offensive Rebounds-4.1#348
Layups/Dunks+4.7#44
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#59
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#297
Freethrows+1.9#77
Improvement-1.2#292
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.7% 39.7% 31.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 1.1% 0.2%
Average Seed 12.1 11.9 12.4
.500 or above 99.6% 99.9% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 97.7% 98.7% 96.7%
Conference Champion 47.4% 52.7% 42.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
First Round35.5% 39.5% 31.6%
Second Round6.9% 8.8% 5.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.9% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nevada (Away) - 49.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 22 - 2
Quad 310 - 312 - 5
Quad 413 - 225 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 276 Houston Christian W 78-60 91%     1 - 0 +8.7 +1.5 +7.3
  Wed, Nov 12 153 @Fresno St. W 78-73 60%     2 - 0 +7.9 +6.3 +1.5
  Sat, Nov 15 168 Idaho W 75-67 82%     3 - 0 +3.9 -0.2 +4.1
  Mon, Nov 24 148 Temple W 91-76 70%     4 - 0 +15.0 +16.5 -1.1
  Tue, Nov 25 112 Bradley W 87-77 58%     5 - 0 +13.3 +15.9 -2.5
  Wed, Nov 26 128 Towson W 87-73 63%     6 - 0 +16.1 +24.1 -6.6
  Tue, Dec 2 122 @Nevada L 74-75 50%    
  Sat, Dec 6 298 @Long Beach St. W 79-69 82%    
  Sun, Dec 14 152 Tulane W 79-73 70%    
  Tue, Dec 16 114 @Loyola Marymount L 71-72 47%    
  Fri, Dec 19 247 San Diego W 85-72 89%    
  Thu, Jan 1 245 @Cal Poly W 86-79 74%    
  Sat, Jan 3 110 Hawaii W 77-72 67%    
  Thu, Jan 8 324 Cal St. Fullerton W 91-74 94%    
  Sat, Jan 10 257 @UC Riverside W 77-69 76%    
  Thu, Jan 15 220 Cal St. Northridge W 86-74 86%    
  Sat, Jan 17 271 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 79-71 77%    
  Thu, Jan 22 178 @UC Davis W 74-70 64%    
  Sat, Jan 24 133 UC Irvine W 74-67 72%    
  Thu, Jan 29 141 UC Santa Barbara W 78-71 74%    
  Sat, Jan 31 220 @Cal St. Northridge W 83-77 71%    
  Thu, Feb 5 298 Long Beach St. W 82-66 92%    
  Sun, Feb 8 110 @Hawaii L 74-75 47%    
  Thu, Feb 12 178 UC Davis W 77-67 81%    
  Sat, Feb 14 257 UC Riverside W 80-66 89%    
  Sat, Feb 21 133 @UC Irvine W 71-70 51%    
  Thu, Feb 26 271 Cal St. Bakersfield W 82-68 89%    
  Sat, Feb 28 245 Cal Poly W 89-76 88%    
  Thu, Mar 5 324 @Cal St. Fullerton W 88-77 83%    
  Sat, Mar 7 141 @UC Santa Barbara W 75-74 55%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.4 9.9 12.2 10.2 6.0 1.8 47.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.2 6.2 7.6 5.2 1.9 0.3 23.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.9 4.5 4.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.8 2.2 0.6 0.1 7.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 2.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.4 4.3 6.3 9.2 12.5 15.2 15.4 14.2 10.4 6.0 1.8 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.8    1.8
19-1 100.0% 6.0    6.0 0.0
18-2 97.4% 10.2    9.5 0.7
17-3 86.5% 12.2    9.8 2.4 0.1
16-4 64.3% 9.9    6.1 3.4 0.4 0.0
15-5 35.8% 5.4    2.3 2.4 0.7 0.1
14-6 12.8% 1.6    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1
13-7 2.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 47.4% 47.4 35.9 9.6 1.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.8% 71.1% 63.1% 8.0% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.5 21.6%
19-1 6.0% 64.6% 61.8% 2.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.1 1.3 0.1 2.1 7.3%
18-2 10.4% 56.1% 55.5% 0.6% 11.7 0.0 1.9 3.6 0.4 4.6 1.3%
17-3 14.2% 47.9% 47.7% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 1.1 4.6 1.0 0.1 7.4 0.3%
16-4 15.4% 41.4% 41.4% 12.3 0.4 4.0 1.9 0.2 9.0
15-5 15.2% 34.1% 34.1% 12.6 0.1 2.6 2.0 0.5 0.0 10.0
14-6 12.5% 25.7% 25.7% 12.8 0.0 1.0 1.7 0.5 0.0 9.3
13-7 9.2% 19.5% 19.5% 13.1 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.0 7.4
12-8 6.3% 12.1% 12.1% 13.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 5.5
11-9 4.3% 7.7% 7.7% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.9
10-10 2.4% 6.9% 6.9% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.2
9-11 1.3% 4.9% 4.9% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
8-12 0.6% 0.6
7-13 0.3% 0.3
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 35.7% 35.3% 0.4% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 6.1 17.6 8.6 2.1 0.2 64.3 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 7.0 1.7 9.6 13.9 19.1 21.7 7.0 10.4 6.1 10.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 46.2% 10.6 3.8 13.5 25.0 3.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 40.9% 10.7 13.6 27.3