UC San Diego
Big West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.1 #109
Expected Predictive Rating +7.4 #81
Pace 67.1 #236
Improvement -4.8 #355

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #104 B C B- D A-
Defense #123 B- C- C B+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #91 1.24 #96 +3.6 #66
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #335 0.80 #110 -2.9 #314
Three Pointers 46% #83 1.05 #133 +3.5 #69
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #65 +4.2 #65
Freethrows 15.9 #264 70% #274 11.0 #281
Second Chance 28.9% #234 1.10 #110 0.32 #169
Turnovers 15.1% #94
Total Offense +2.7 #104

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #312 1.12 #126 +3.7 #68
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #227 0.78 #219 +0.4 #164
Three Pointers 48% #29 0.94 #99 -1.8 #265
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #104 +2.4 #104
Freethrows 14.7 #55 68% #28 9.9 #334
Second Chance 31.1% #199 1.11 #270 0.34 #248
Turnovers 16.4% #195
Total Defense +1.4 #123

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.7% #32 -0.3% #142
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.4% #95 -4.3% #99
Possession Length 16.5 #105 18.2 #317
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #132 0.17 #180
Improvement -3.1 #335 -1.8 #293

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.4% 28.3% 22.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.5 12.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.8% 98.1% 96.5%
Conference Champion 25.1% 26.0% 20.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round27.4% 28.3% 22.9%
Second Round2.8% 3.0% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Home) - 84.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 22 - 2
Quad 310 - 312 - 5
Quad 412 - 324 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 301 Houston Christian W 78 - 60 91% +13  1 - 0 +7 -1 B- F C- +8 C A- A+
 Wed, Nov 12 152 @Fresno St. W 78 - 73 53% +4  2 - 0 +8 +8 A+ B+ F +0 D+ B C
 Sat, Nov 15 194 Idaho W 75 - 67 81% -3  3 - 0 +3 -3 C D- C- +5 A+ C C
 Mon, Nov 24 140 Temple W 91 - 76 62% +9  4 - 0 +16 +18 A+ F A+ -2 A+ F D-
 Tue, Nov 25 114 Bradley W 87 - 77 51% +3  5 - 0 +14 +16 C+ A+ A+ -2 B F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 166 Towson W 87 - 73 68% +13  6 - 0 +13 +23 A+ C A+ -8 B- D+ F
 Tue, Dec 2 85 @Nevada L 70 - 76 29% -4  6 - 1 +4 +6 F A+ A+ -3 D C- C
 Sat, Dec 6 264 @Long Beach St. W 80 - 74 75% +4  7 - 1 1 - 0 +3 +8 A+ F B- -5 D B+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 158 Tulane W 93 - 67 65% +16  8 - 1 +26 +10 A- D B+ +13 A+ A- A+
 Tue, Dec 16 130 @Loyola Marymount W 67 - 57 48% +3  9 - 1 +15 -2 B+ C F +17 B A+ A+
 Fri, Dec 19 222 San Diego W 81 - 71 84% -7 
 Thu, Jan 1 249 @Cal Poly L 65 - 67 72% +2  9 - 2 1 - 1 -4 -5 F A- D+ +1 A D F
 Sat, Jan 3 104 Hawaii W 83 - 73 59% +7  10 - 2 2 - 1 +12 +18 A+ A+ A+ -6 C+ D D-
 Thu, Jan 8 231 Cal St. Fullerton L 71 - 88 84% -4  10 - 3 2 - 2 -24 -5 F A F -19 F D F
 Sat, Jan 10 287 @UC Riverside W 69 - 66 79% -1  11 - 3 3 - 2 -1 +0 C+ C- F -1 A+ F C+
 Thu, Jan 15 216 Cal St. Northridge W 84 - 74 83%
 Sat, Jan 17 293 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 79 - 70 80%
 Thu, Jan 22 188 @UC Davis W 77 - 74 60%
 Sat, Jan 24 122 UC Irvine W 73 - 68 67%
 Thu, Jan 29 181 UC Santa Barbara W 78 - 69 79%
 Sat, Jan 31 216 @Cal St. Northridge W 81 - 77 65%
 Thu, Feb 5 264 Long Beach St. W 80 - 67 88%
 Sun, Feb 8 104 @Hawaii L 69 - 73 36%
 Thu, Feb 12 188 UC Davis W 80 - 71 79%
 Sat, Feb 14 287 UC Riverside W 79 - 65 91%
 Sat, Feb 21 122 @UC Irvine L 70 - 71 45%
 Thu, Feb 26 293 Cal St. Bakersfield W 82 - 67 91%
 Sat, Feb 28 249 Cal Poly W 86 - 74 87%
 Thu, Mar 5 231 @Cal St. Fullerton W 83 - 78 67%
 Sat, Mar 7 181 @UC Santa Barbara W 75 - 72 60%
Totals 23 - 7 14 - 6 +4 +3 B C B- +1 B- C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.9 8.4 5.2 1.2 25.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 5.5 10.4 9.6 3.9 0.5 31.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 7.1 10.1 6.5 1.9 0.2 27.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 3.3 3.6 1.4 0.1 9.3 4th
5th 0.2 1.5 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.0 6th
7th 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.6 7.0 12.2 17.4 19.9 18.3 12.5 5.8 1.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
17-3 90.6% 5.2    4.2 1.0 0.0
16-4 67.5% 8.4    5.4 2.8 0.3
15-5 37.5% 6.9    3.0 3.1 0.7 0.0
14-6 14.4% 2.9    0.7 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.5% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 25.1% 25.1 14.6 8.4 1.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 1.2% 53.3% 52.9% 0.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.9%
17-3 5.8% 47.2% 47.2% 11.9 0.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 3.1
16-4 12.5% 42.2% 42.2% 12.2 0.4 3.7 1.2 0.0 7.2
15-5 18.3% 35.8% 35.8% 12.5 0.1 3.4 2.7 0.3 0.0 11.7
14-6 19.9% 28.4% 28.4% 12.7 0.0 2.3 2.9 0.4 0.0 14.3
13-7 17.4% 20.8% 20.8% 12.9 0.0 0.9 2.1 0.6 0.0 13.8
12-8 12.2% 14.6% 14.6% 13.1 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.0 10.4
11-9 7.0% 10.6% 10.6% 13.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 6.2
10-10 3.6% 8.4% 8.4% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.3
9-11 1.6% 6.1% 6.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
8-12 0.5% 4.1% 4.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.5
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 27.4% 27.4% 0.0% 12.5 72.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 11.0 0.9 0.9 3.4 9.4 60.7 23.9 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 2.0% 11.0 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%