UNLV
Mountain West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.5 #134
Expected Predictive Rating +0.0 #162
Pace 76.1 #36
Improvement +0.3 #168

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #148 C+ C- C A- B
Defense #134 B D- B D C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #37 1.15 #189 +3.5 #68
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #221 0.93 #20 +0.7 #145
Three Pointers 37% #267 0.98 #224 -2.6 #276
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #135 +1.6 #134
Freethrows 22.3 #8 69% #291 15.3 #39
Second Chance 33.9% #92 0.87 #344 0.30 #236
Turnovers 17.0% #209
Total Offense +0.4 #148

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #73 1.06 #66 -0.2 #185
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #180 0.85 #311 -0.9 #246
Three Pointers 37% #283 0.89 #44 +4.3 #37
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #77 +3.2 #78
Freethrows 20.3 #309 71% #106 14.4 #69
Second Chance 33.4% #285 1.15 #304 0.38 #313
Turnovers 18.9% #63
Total Defense +1.1 #134

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.6% #80 0.7% #228
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.5% #157 -6.8% #65
Possession Length 15.7 #50 17.1 #163
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #116 0.14 #72
Improvement -3.5 #348 +3.8 #18

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.3 13.2
.500 or above 14.8% 21.3% 5.9%
.500 or above in Conference 30.4% 40.8% 16.4%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Jose St. (Away) - 57.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 23 - 64 - 11
Quad 34 - 48 - 15
Quad 45 - 313 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 225 Tennessee Martin L 81 - 86 77% +18  0 - 1 -11 -4 F A- F -7 A+ F A-
 Sat, Nov 8 267 Chattanooga W 101 - 69 84% +11  1 - 1 +23 +26 A+ A+ A -2 D- C B+
 Tue, Nov 11 186 Montana L 93 - 102 72% -6  1 - 2 -14 +6 A F B -18 F F D-
 Sun, Nov 16 83 @Memphis W 92 - 78 21% +11  2 - 2 +24 +16 A+ F B+ +7 A+ C A
 Thu, Nov 20 175 Saint Joseph's W 99 - 85 70% +4  3 - 2 +10 +14 B- C+ C -6 D+ A+ D+
 Mon, Nov 24 112 Maryland L 67 - 74 41% +0  3 - 3 -3 -5 D F C +3 B F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 14 Alabama L 76 - 115 7% -16  3 - 4 -21 -1 B F B+ -16 F F A-
 Thu, Nov 27 124 Rutgers L 65 - 80 47% -3  3 - 5 -13 -6 D+ F A+ -7 A- D+ C-
 Sun, Dec 7 77 @Stanford W 75 - 74 20% -2  4 - 5 +11 +6 B+ D- C+ +6 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 226 Tennessee St. L 60 - 63 78% +2  4 - 6 -10 -16 F F F +7 B- F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 152 Fresno St. W 84 - 72 66% +4  5 - 6 1 - 0 +9 +14 A+ A+ C -4 B F D+
 Sat, Jan 3 342 Air Force W 67 - 39 92% +15  6 - 6 2 - 0 +14 -5 F B+ C- +21 A+ B+ C
 Tue, Jan 6 96 @Wyoming L 66 - 98 25% -20  6 - 7 2 - 1 -24 -6 D D C+ -16 F F B+
 Fri, Jan 9 97 @Colorado St. L 62 - 70 26% -0  6 - 8 2 - 2 +0 -5 D C F +4 A+ F A+
 Tue, Jan 13 78 Boise St. W 89 - 85 OT 39% +0  7 - 8 3 - 2 +8 +9 A- B C -1 D A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 227 @San Jose St. W 76 - 74 57%
 Tue, Jan 20 28 @Utah St. L 72 - 88 6%
 Sat, Jan 24 52 San Diego St. L 73 - 79 29%
 Tue, Jan 27 48 New Mexico L 75 - 82 27%
 Fri, Jan 30 85 @Nevada L 72 - 80 23%
 Tue, Feb 3 152 @Fresno St. L 75 - 77 43%
 Sat, Feb 7 90 Grand Canyon L 74 - 76 44%
 Tue, Feb 10 227 San Jose St. W 79 - 71 77%
 Fri, Feb 13 78 @Boise St. L 69 - 78 20%
 Wed, Feb 18 97 Colorado St. L 74 - 75 47%
 Sat, Feb 21 342 @Air Force W 75 - 65 82%
 Wed, Feb 25 90 @Grand Canyon L 71 - 79 24%
 Sat, Feb 28 85 Nevada L 75 - 77 42%
 Tue, Mar 3 28 Utah St. L 75 - 85 17%
 Fri, Mar 6 52 @San Diego St. L 70 - 82 14%
Totals 13 - 17 9 - 11 +1 +0 C+ C- C +1 B D- B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.9 3rd
4th 0.2 1.3 2.1 0.8 0.1 4.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 3.9 1.5 0.1 7.4 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 5.7 3.0 0.3 11.1 6th
7th 0.2 2.3 7.5 5.0 0.7 0.0 15.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.7 8.4 7.3 1.2 0.0 19.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.9 8.5 7.2 1.5 0.1 20.4 9th
10th 0.3 2.9 5.8 4.6 1.1 0.0 14.8 10th
11th 0.2 0.9 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.2 1.3 4.7 9.8 16.0 19.1 18.5 14.1 8.9 4.6 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 23.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 2.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.2% 17.9% 12.8% 5.1% 11.0 0.0 0.2 5.9%
14-6 0.7% 4.3% 4.3% 11.0 0.0 0.7
13-7 1.9% 3.9% 3.9% 11.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.8
12-8 4.6% 2.9% 2.9% 11.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.5
11-9 8.9% 1.6% 1.6% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.7
10-10 14.1% 0.7% 0.7% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 14.0
9-11 18.5% 0.3% 0.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 18.4
8-12 19.1% 0.2% 0.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 19.1
7-13 16.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 16.0
6-14 9.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.8
5-15 4.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.7
4-16 1.3% 1.3
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 12.5 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%