UNLV
Mountain West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#129
Expected Predictive Rating-2.8#217
Pace78.4#26
Improvement-3.7#359

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#101
First Shot+3.5#78
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#212
Layup/Dunks+2.8#85
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#145
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#253
Freethrows+2.1#68
Improvement-3.5#362

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#189
First Shot+0.4#154
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#269
Layups/Dunks+0.5#155
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#282
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#61
Freethrows-2.8#321
Improvement-0.2#209
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 3.0% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 11.8 12.6
.500 or above 27.9% 43.2% 22.1%
.500 or above in Conference 40.3% 48.6% 37.1%
Conference Champion 1.4% 2.4% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.0% 2.2% 4.6%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round2.0% 2.9% 1.6%
Second Round0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stanford (Away) - 27.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 23 - 63 - 10
Quad 35 - 58 - 16
Quad 45 - 314 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 263 Tennessee Martin L 81-86 84%     0 - 1 -13.5 -5.2 -7.6
  Sat, Nov 8 188 Chattanooga W 101-69 75%     1 - 1 +27.2 +27.0 +1.2
  Tue, Nov 11 191 Montana L 93-102 75%     1 - 2 -13.9 +4.1 -16.8
  Sun, Nov 16 70 @Memphis W 92-78 20%     2 - 2 +24.9 +14.5 +8.7
  Thu, Nov 20 175 Saint Joseph's W 99-85 73%     3 - 2 +9.7 +13.0 -5.0
  Mon, Nov 24 93 Maryland L 67-74 36%     3 - 3 -1.4 -5.4 +4.4
  Tue, Nov 25 10 Alabama L 76-115 7%     3 - 4 -20.0 +1.0 -16.8
  Thu, Nov 27 120 Rutgers L 65-80 47%     3 - 5 -12.1 -4.9 -7.3
  Sun, Dec 7 95 @Stanford L 80-86 27%    
  Sat, Dec 13 224 Tennessee St. W 88-79 80%    
  Sat, Dec 20 153 Fresno St. W 84-79 69%    
  Sat, Jan 3 323 Air Force W 81-67 90%    
  Tue, Jan 6 117 @Wyoming L 79-83 36%    
  Fri, Jan 9 87 @Colorado St. L 75-82 25%    
  Tue, Jan 13 61 Boise St. L 74-78 35%    
  Sat, Jan 17 187 @San Jose St. W 77-76 53%    
  Tue, Jan 20 35 @Utah St. L 75-89 11%    
  Sat, Jan 24 57 San Diego St. L 78-82 34%    
  Tue, Jan 27 101 New Mexico W 85-84 52%    
  Fri, Jan 30 122 @Nevada L 77-81 37%    
  Tue, Feb 3 153 @Fresno St. L 81-82 47%    
  Sat, Feb 7 98 Grand Canyon L 79-80 49%    
  Tue, Feb 10 187 San Jose St. W 80-73 74%    
  Fri, Feb 13 61 @Boise St. L 71-81 19%    
  Wed, Feb 18 87 Colorado St. L 78-79 46%    
  Sat, Feb 21 323 @Air Force W 78-70 76%    
  Wed, Feb 25 98 @Grand Canyon L 77-83 29%    
  Sat, Feb 28 122 Nevada W 80-78 58%    
  Tue, Mar 3 35 Utah St. L 78-86 25%    
  Fri, Mar 6 57 @San Diego St. L 75-85 18%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.4 2.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.4 1.9 0.2 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.4 2.3 4.4 2.3 0.3 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.2 2.9 0.4 0.0 11.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.6 3.6 0.6 0.0 12.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.7 4.2 0.9 0.0 13.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.5 4.2 0.9 0.0 13.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.8 4.5 3.3 0.6 0.1 11.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.6 2.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 8.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.9 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.7 6.3 9.1 11.6 13.3 13.3 12.2 10.0 7.7 5.2 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 96.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 84.6% 0.2    0.2 0.0 0.0
16-4 63.0% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 29.2% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 9.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.1% 55.6% 33.3% 22.2% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.3%
17-3 0.3% 17.9% 10.3% 7.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.6%
16-4 0.6% 21.7% 19.6% 2.1% 11.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 2.6%
15-5 1.4% 9.2% 8.7% 0.5% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3 0.5%
14-6 2.7% 9.0% 9.0% 11.5 0.1 0.1 2.5
13-7 5.2% 5.7% 5.7% 11.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.9
12-8 7.7% 4.0% 4.0% 12.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.4
11-9 10.0% 2.9% 2.9% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.7
10-10 12.2% 2.0% 2.0% 13.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.0
9-11 13.3% 1.1% 1.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.2
8-12 13.3% 0.3% 0.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 13.3
7-13 11.6% 0.4% 0.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 11.5
6-14 9.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.1
5-15 6.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.3
4-16 3.7% 3.7
3-17 1.6% 1.6
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 98.0 0.1%