VMI
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -11.1 #339
Expected Predictive Rating -11.6 #332
Pace 68.9 #188
Improvement +1.4 #111

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #310 F D C+ C C
Defense #342 F F C C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #347 0.95 #351 -7.9 #360
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #282 0.79 #133 -1.5 #255
Three Pointers 54% #9 0.81 #357 +1.0 #140
1st FG Attempt 0.85 #360 -8.4 #360
Freethrows 17.6 #174 71% #232 12.5 #179
Second Chance 28.8% #237 0.91 #322 0.26 #287
Turnovers 16.0% #142
Total Offense -5.1 #310

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #240 1.33 #341 -1.9 #252
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #187 0.83 #286 -0.6 #224
Three Pointers 43% #111 1.11 #308 -3.4 #313
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #339 -5.9 #340
Freethrows 17.6 #199 73% #179 12.8 #172
Second Chance 39.1% #362 1.06 #210 0.41 #345
Turnovers 17.2% #143
Total Defense -6.0 #342

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.0% #191 -0.2% #152
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -16.5% #362 11.8% #346
Possession Length 18.8 #322 15.6 #10
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #309 0.24 #345
Improvement -0.4 #214 +1.9 #76

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 5.9% 14.5% 3.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 28.3% 14.1% 32.1%
First Four0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercer (Home) - 21.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 11
Quad 47 - 108 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 343 @Southern Indiana W 78 - 74 39% -3  1 - 0 -4 -5 F D+ B +0 C- C D
 Sun, Nov 9 53 @Missouri L 68 - 106 2% -11  1 - 1 -25 -5 B- F F -17 B+ F F
 Sat, Nov 15 305 Jacksonville L 67 - 69 51% -3  1 - 2 -13 -6 F A+ F -7 F F A+
 Wed, Nov 19 116 @Richmond L 54 - 87 6% -21  1 - 3 -27 -14 F D+ F -15 F D- C-
 Sat, Nov 22 345 @Stetson L 80 - 99 41% -9  1 - 4 -28 +7 F D A+ -36 F F D-
 Mon, Nov 24 199 Buffalo L 70 - 78 20% -1  1 - 5 -10 -4 F A- A+ -7 C- C- B+
 Wed, Nov 26 131 Bowling Green L 48 - 81 12% -22  1 - 6 -31 -21 F F D+ -12 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 50 @Central Florida L 57 - 82 2% -9  1 - 7 -11 -9 F D+ D+ -3 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Dec 9 336 Loyola Maryland W 86 - 70 61% +15  2 - 7 +2 +15 B+ D+ A+ -11 C F D
 Sun, Dec 21 254 @Radford L 90 - 97 20% -2  2 - 8 -9 +10 C A+ D -20 F F B
 Thu, Jan 1 240 Samford L 58 - 78 36% -4  2 - 9 0 - 1 -28 -18 F F D- -10 F A+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 267 Chattanooga W 79 - 71 42% +8  3 - 9 1 - 1 -1 +1 C F D+ -2 B+ F B
 Wed, Jan 7 119 @East Tennessee St. L 67 - 81 7% -10  3 - 10 1 - 2 -8 +1 F F A+ -10 F C- D+
 Sat, Jan 10 147 @Furman L 48 - 69 9% -10  3 - 11 1 - 3 -17 -19 F D F +1 C+ F A+
 Thu, Jan 15 153 Mercer L 75 - 83 21%
 Sat, Jan 17 358 The Citadel W 77 - 70 74%
 Wed, Jan 21 288 UNC Greensboro L 76 - 77 47%
 Sat, Jan 24 291 @Western Carolina L 73 - 80 27%
 Thu, Jan 29 358 @The Citadel W 74 - 73 53%
 Sat, Jan 31 153 @Mercer L 72 - 86 9%
 Wed, Feb 4 228 Wofford L 74 - 79 34%
 Sat, Feb 7 119 East Tennessee St. L 68 - 79 16%
 Wed, Feb 11 288 @UNC Greensboro L 73 - 80 26%
 Sat, Feb 14 147 Furman L 68 - 77 21%
 Wed, Feb 18 228 @Wofford L 71 - 82 16%
 Sat, Feb 21 291 Western Carolina L 76 - 77 47%
 Thu, Feb 26 240 @Samford L 71 - 81 19%
 Sat, Feb 28 267 @Chattanooga L 70 - 78 23%
Totals 7 - 21 5 - 13 -11 -5 F D C+ -6 F F C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.9 3.6 0.9 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.8 5.9 1.8 0.1 13.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 7.7 9.8 3.2 0.2 22.7 8th
9th 0.3 5.0 12.3 10.8 3.3 0.3 32.1 9th
10th 1.0 4.5 6.8 4.0 0.7 0.0 17.0 10th
Total 1.0 4.8 11.8 17.9 20.0 18.5 12.6 7.4 3.7 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 40.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 4.8% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 4.8% 4.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.6% 1.7% 1.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.6
10-8 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 1.5
9-9 3.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 3.6
8-10 7.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 7.3
7-11 12.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.5
6-12 18.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 18.4
5-13 20.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.0
4-14 17.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.9
3-15 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.8
2-16 4.8% 4.8
1-17 1.0% 1.0
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%