VMI
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.2#342
Expected Predictive Rating-13.1#337
Pace69.6#183
Improvement-1.8#319

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#307
First Shot-5.6#333
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#125
Layup/Dunks-6.7#352
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#140
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#128
Freethrows-0.9#234
Improvement-0.6#248

Defense
Total Defense-6.3#351
First Shot-2.3#255
After Offensive Rebounds-4.1#347
Layups/Dunks+0.3#160
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#223
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#334
Freethrows+2.8#41
Improvement-1.2#295
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.5% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 16.0 15.9
.500 or above 1.2% 7.5% 1.1%
.500 or above in Conference 9.8% 18.8% 9.6%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.7% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 32.6% 23.1% 32.8%
First Four0.5% 1.0% 0.5%
First Round0.4% 0.8% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Florida (Away) - 2.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 11
Quad 46 - 117 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 314 @Southern Indiana W 78-74 28%     1 - 0 -1.2 -3.5 +1.9
  Sun, Nov 9 33 @Missouri L 68-106 1%     1 - 1 -21.8 -4.3 -14.8
  Sat, Nov 15 269 Jacksonville L 67-69 41%     1 - 2 -10.8 -4.3 -6.5
  Wed, Nov 19 115 @Richmond L 54-87 6%     1 - 3 -26.8 -13.4 -15.3
  Sat, Nov 22 344 @Stetson L 80-99 40%     1 - 4 -27.5 +7.3 -35.9
  Mon, Nov 24 228 Buffalo L 70-78 25%     1 - 5 -12.0 -3.8 -8.6
  Wed, Nov 26 140 Bowling Green L 48-81 13%     1 - 6 -31.8 -19.8 -13.7
  Sat, Nov 29 68 @Central Florida L 70-92 2%    
  Tue, Dec 9 301 Loyola Maryland L 72-73 49%    
  Sun, Dec 21 273 @Radford L 75-83 23%    
  Thu, Jan 1 221 Samford L 74-78 34%    
  Sat, Jan 3 188 Chattanooga L 72-78 29%    
  Wed, Jan 7 137 @East Tennessee St. L 63-79 8%    
  Sat, Jan 10 160 @Furman L 65-79 11%    
  Thu, Jan 15 206 Mercer L 77-82 32%    
  Sat, Jan 17 358 The Citadel W 77-71 69%    
  Wed, Jan 21 287 UNC Greensboro L 73-74 45%    
  Sat, Jan 24 278 @Western Carolina L 72-80 24%    
  Thu, Jan 29 358 @The Citadel L 73-74 48%    
  Sat, Jan 31 206 @Mercer L 74-85 16%    
  Wed, Feb 4 225 Wofford L 75-79 35%    
  Sat, Feb 7 137 East Tennessee St. L 66-76 20%    
  Wed, Feb 11 287 @UNC Greensboro L 70-77 26%    
  Sat, Feb 14 160 Furman L 68-76 26%    
  Wed, Feb 18 225 @Wofford L 72-82 18%    
  Sat, Feb 21 278 Western Carolina L 75-77 43%    
  Thu, Feb 26 221 @Samford L 71-81 18%    
  Sat, Feb 28 188 @Chattanooga L 69-81 14%    
Projected Record 7 - 21 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.9 1.0 0.1 4.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.2 1.4 0.1 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.4 5.3 2.3 0.2 12.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.2 6.2 7.0 3.0 0.4 19.0 8th
9th 0.2 2.1 6.3 10.3 7.8 2.9 0.4 0.0 30.0 9th
10th 1.2 3.9 6.6 6.3 3.4 0.8 0.1 22.3 10th
Total 1.2 4.1 8.7 12.9 16.0 15.6 13.7 10.8 7.3 4.3 3.0 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 70.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 54.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0
13-5 30.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 11.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 18.2% 18.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 12.4% 12.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.7% 14.6% 14.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.6
11-7 1.4% 6.0% 6.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.3
10-8 3.0% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.1 2.8
9-9 4.3% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 4.2
8-10 7.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 7.2
7-11 10.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.8
6-12 13.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.7
5-13 15.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.6
4-14 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.9
3-15 12.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.9
2-16 8.7% 8.7
1-17 4.1% 4.1
0-18 1.2% 1.2
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.6 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%