Western Carolina
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.5 #291
Expected Predictive Rating -8.6 #300
Pace 74.5 #54
Improvement +0.1 #178

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #278 D+ D+ D C C
Defense #283 F C+ D+ D+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #143 1.11 #241 -0.5 #200
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #163 0.68 #274 -0.5 #202
Three Pointers 39% #215 0.95 #257 -2.0 #260
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #259 -3.0 #256
Freethrows 17.4 #184 70% #254 12.3 #203
Second Chance 31.4% #156 0.91 #328 0.29 #256
Turnovers 18.3% #286
Total Offense -4.0 #278

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #308 1.19 #216 +2.4 #100
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #104 0.91 #347 -2.8 #346
Three Pointers 43% #114 1.20 #357 -5.3 #346
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #335 -5.7 #336
Freethrows 18.5 #244 74% #264 13.8 #99
Second Chance 27.9% #87 1.05 #201 0.29 #123
Turnovers 15.4% #252
Total Defense -3.5 #283

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.0% #194 -1.3% #76
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.9% #271 12.5% #350
Possession Length 17.1 #155 16.6 #80
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #331 0.19 #256
Improvement +0.5 #150 -0.3 #207

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 2.8% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 2.2% 6.1% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 21.8% 40.2% 15.6%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.8% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 9.3% 3.0% 11.4%
First Four1.3% 1.9% 1.1%
First Round1.1% 1.9% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Home) - 25.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 32 - 52 - 11
Quad 47 - 810 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 56 @Cincinnati L 63 - 94 4% -20  0 - 1 -18 -6 D+ C F -8 F C A-
 Sat, Nov 8 7 @Duke L 54 - 95 1% -23  0 - 2 -17 -12 F D+ B -2 A+ C F
 Sun, Nov 16 345 Stetson W 76 - 65 75% +8  1 - 2 -4 -8 B- F F +4 A C- F
 Wed, Nov 19 218 UNC Asheville W 80 - 73 45% +1  2 - 2 +1 +11 C- B- A- -10 F A+ D
 Sat, Nov 22 167 @Lipscomb L 62 - 83 18% -12  2 - 3 -19 -13 F D F -5 D- C- C-
 Sat, Nov 29 87 @High Point L 73 - 93 6% -7  2 - 4 -10 -2 A+ F F -7 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 299 @South Carolina Upstate L 67 - 78 41% -4  2 - 5 -16 -8 F D C -8 C- C C
 Thu, Dec 11 64 @Virginia Tech L 74 - 96 5% -15  2 - 6 -10 +4 B- C C- -14 F D- C
 Thu, Dec 18 23 @Georgia L 82 - 112 2% -16  2 - 7 -11 +7 A+ C+ C- -14 F A+ C
 Wed, Dec 31 228 Wofford L 74 - 79 46% -3  2 - 8 0 - 1 -12 -6 F D F -6 F B- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 147 @Furman W 80 - 77 OT 15% +3  3 - 8 1 - 1 +7 +8 C+ A D+ -1 C A- F
 Wed, Jan 7 240 @Samford L 77 - 82 28% +6  3 - 9 1 - 2 -7 +5 F A+ F -11 F D D-
 Sat, Jan 10 358 @The Citadel L 77 - 79 OT 67% +2  3 - 10 1 - 3 -14 -4 F F B- -10 C- F F
 Wed, Jan 14 119 East Tennessee St. L 72 - 79 25%
 Sat, Jan 17 267 Chattanooga W 77 - 75 56%
 Wed, Jan 21 153 @Mercer L 76 - 87 15%
 Sat, Jan 24 339 VMI W 80 - 73 73%
 Thu, Jan 29 119 @East Tennessee St. L 69 - 82 11%
 Sat, Jan 31 240 Samford W 78 - 77 50%
 Wed, Feb 4 288 @UNC Greensboro L 77 - 80 39%
 Sat, Feb 7 228 @Wofford L 76 - 83 26%
 Wed, Feb 11 358 The Citadel W 80 - 70 83%
 Sat, Feb 14 267 @Chattanooga L 74 - 78 34%
 Wed, Feb 18 288 UNC Greensboro W 80 - 77 60%
 Sat, Feb 21 339 @VMI W 77 - 76 53%
 Wed, Feb 25 153 Mercer L 79 - 84 33%
 Sat, Feb 28 147 Furman L 72 - 77 31%
Totals 9 - 18 7 - 11 -7 -4 D+ D+ D -4 F C+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.7 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 3.0 1.1 0.1 6.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.8 5.7 2.3 0.2 12.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 5.0 7.7 3.1 0.3 0.0 16.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 5.6 9.0 4.0 0.3 19.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 6.4 9.4 3.9 0.4 0.0 21.3 8th
9th 0.2 1.8 5.5 5.8 2.1 0.1 0.0 15.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.2 10th
Total 0.1 0.9 3.4 8.1 13.3 17.7 18.6 16.0 10.9 6.5 2.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 87.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 39.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.3% 17.2% 17.2% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 1.2% 8.0% 8.0% 15.3 0.1 0.0 1.1
11-7 2.8% 5.9% 5.9% 15.6 0.1 0.1 2.7
10-8 6.5% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 6.3
9-9 10.9% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.4 10.5
8-10 16.0% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.3 15.7
7-11 18.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 18.4
6-12 17.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 17.6
5-13 13.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.2
4-14 8.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.1
3-15 3.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.4
2-16 0.9% 0.9
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 15.9 98.3 0.0%