Western Carolina
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -4.7 244
Results Rating -5.2 249
Consistency 0.15 201
Pace 70.5 123
Improvement +5.8 20

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 166 D+ C+ C C- C
Defense D 310 D B- D+ D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 174 D 53% 306 -1.9 252
2 Pt. Jumpers 39% 168 C+ 40% 96 +0.4 149
Three Pointers 41% 180 C- 32% 251 -1.0 216
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 189 D+ -2.5 270
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 255
Second Chance B- 33.6% 87 C- 0.99 243 C+ 0.33 123
Opponents' Steals C+ 9.0% 137
Other Turnovers D+ 8.0% 273
Turnovers C 17.0% 197
Freethrows C- 0.29 230 C- 71% 222 C- 0.21 227
Total Offense C -0.1 166

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 44% 260 B 8.5% 52
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 15% 323 B- 3.6% 75
Three Pointers F+ 73% 349 C+ 0.7% 130
Total D- 47% 326 B 4.3% 47

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 214 C- 60% 221 +0.0 179
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 190 F+ 44% 346 +1.1 280
Three Pointers 42% 130 D- 38% 345 +3.4 321
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 161 D- +4.4 333
1st FG Attempt D 1.11 325
Second Chance B- 27.9% 87 C 1.02 163 B- 0.29 102
Turnovers from Steals C- 8.6% 242
Other Turnovers D+ 6.6% 262
Turnovers D+ 15.3% 269
Freethrows C- 0.32 224 D- 76% 335 D+ 0.24 262
Total Defense D -4.6 310

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B+ 40% 34 D+ 8.6% 271
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 165 D+ 3.5% 262
Three Pointers B 79% 51 C- 0.6% 231
Total B- 50% 73 D+ 4.2% 302

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.7 221 16.5 37
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 282 0.19 244
Consistency 0.13 243 0.10 38
Improvement +4.1 19 +1.6 99

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 264 246 220
Results Rating Rank 272 248 225
Conference Record 9 - 9 9 - 9 10 - 8
Conference Finish 7 6 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 6% 5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 3% 6% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four4% 4% 5%
First Round4% 5% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Furman (Home) - 46.7% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 21 - 01 - 5
Quad 33 - 43 - 9
Quad 49 - 713 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 42 @Cincinnati L 63 - 94 4% -20  0% 0 - 1 F+ -16 F+ -9 C- D+ F D+ -3 F B- B+
 Sat, Nov 8 2 @Duke L 54 - 95 1% -23  4% 0 - 2 D- -12 F -11 F C- B- B- +2 A C+ D
 Sun, Nov 16 328 Stetson W 76 - 65 80% +8  84% 1 - 2 C- -3 F -11 B+ F F A- +8 A+ C- F
 Wed, Nov 19 232 UNC Asheville W 80 - 73 59% +1  58% 2 - 2 C +0 B+ +9 C- B B+ F+ -8 F A+ C
 Sat, Nov 22 197 @Lipscomb L 62 - 83 30% -12  17% 2 - 3 F -20 F -16 F D+ F C- -3 D+ D D
 Sat, Nov 29 94 @High Point L 73 - 93 11% -7  36% 2 - 4 D -11 D -5 A F F D -5 F A+ A
 Sat, Dec 6 300 @South Carolina Upstate L 67 - 78 52% -4  4% 2 - 5 F+ -16 F -10 F D B- D -6 D+ C- C
 Thu, Dec 11 56 @Virginia Tech L 74 - 96 6% -15  0% 2 - 6 D -9 C+ +2 B- C D+ F -11 F D- C+
 Thu, Dec 18 29 @Georgia L 82 - 112 3% -16  0% 2 - 7 D- -12 C +1 A B- C- F -10 F A- C
 Wed, Dec 31 229 Wofford L 74 - 79 58% -3  20% 2 - 8 0 - 1 D- -12 F+ -9 F D+ F C- -3 D- C+ B
 Sat, Jan 3 171 @Furman W 80 - 77 OT 26% +3  65% 3 - 8 1 - 1 B- +5 B- +5 C A D C -0 D+ B+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 195 @Samford L 77 - 82 29% +6  88% 3 - 9 1 - 2 C- -4 C+ +3 F A+ D+ D- -8 D- D+ D-
 Sat, Jan 10 349 @The Citadel L 77 - 79 OT 71% +2  60% 3 - 10 1 - 3 D- -12 D+ -3 F F+ A- F+ -9 D+ F D
 Wed, Jan 14 135 East Tennessee St. W 72 - 68 38% -0  38% 4 - 10 2 - 3 C+ +2 B- +4 B B- F+ C -1 C+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 282 Chattanooga L 82 - 90 69% +3  59% 4 - 11 2 - 4 F -18 B +7 B D+ A F -26 F D- F
 Wed, Jan 21 181 @Mercer L 76 - 88 27% -14  0% 4 - 12 2 - 5 D -10 C- -0 D- B+ F F -10 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 359 VMI W 88 - 58 91% +12  84% 5 - 12 3 - 5 B +11 A+ +19 C+ A+ A+ C- -3 D+ C+ D-
 Thu, Jan 29 135 @East Tennessee St. W 90 - 88 19% +9  100% 6 - 12 4 - 5 B- +6 A+ +19 A- A+ B+ F -12 D- C+ F
 Sun, Feb 1 195 Samford L 74 - 88 51% -8  8% 6 - 13 4 - 6 F -19 D- -8 F F+ A- F -10 F D+ B+
 Wed, Feb 4 298 @UNC Greensboro L 78 - 81 51% -0  46% 6 - 14 4 - 7 D+ -8 C +0 D+ D+ D+ F+ -9 D+ F+ B
 Sat, Feb 7 229 @Wofford L 66 - 77 35% -5  18% 6 - 15 4 - 8 D- -12 F -11 F B- C- C -1 F A A-
 Wed, Feb 11 349 The Citadel W 87 - 49 86% +26  97% 7 - 15 5 - 8 A +22 A +14 B A+ B A+ +12 A+ B+ B-
 Sat, Feb 14 282 @Chattanooga W 81 - 76 47% +10  96% 8 - 15 6 - 8 C +1 B- +4 D A C- D+ -3 D F F+
 Wed, Feb 18 298 UNC Greensboro W 91 - 77 73% +6  87% 9 - 15 7 - 8 C+ +3 B +6 C+ A+ C- D+ -3 F A+ B-
 Sat, Feb 21 359 @VMI W 81 - 62 80% +11  99% 10 - 15 8 - 8 B- +6 B +6 F+ C- A+ C+ +1 F+ A+ F
 Wed, Feb 25 181 Mercer W 78 - 74 49% -0  41% 11 - 15 9 - 8 C -0 C -0 D+ D+ C C -0 C- A C+
 Sat, Feb 28 171 Furman L 74 - 75 47%
Totals 11 - 16 9 - 9 -5 C +0 C- D+ C D -5 C- C- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D C+ C- D+ 39% 39% 41% C D+ B- C- C+ C C- C- C- D C- F+ D- D- 38% 20% 42% C D B- C B- D+ C- D- D+
1.08 53% 40% 32% -2 0 0.97 34% 1.0 .33 17% .29 71% .21 1.15 60% 44% 38% +4 0 1.11 28% 1.0 .29 15% .32 76% .22
Nov
3		 Cincinnati F+ F+ F B- C 30% 26% 43% D+ C- A- F D+ F C- F D- D+ F F D F 35% 19% 46% C- F A+ F B- B+ F B- F
0.79 44% 29% 35% -6 -1 0.87 33% 0.7 .23 28% .24 57% .14 1.18 78% 60% 38% +13 0 1.29 23% 1.3 .30 19% .46 67% .31
Nov
8		 Duke F D- F+ F F 34% 31% 36% C- F B+ F C- B- D+ F D- B- C F A A 42% 6% 53% C A A F C+ D F D+ F
0.71 45% 28% 19% -16 -2 0.68 28% 0.5 .15 18% .18 55% .10 1.24 64% 67% 29% 0 +2 1.06 33% 1.5 .48 13% .50 76% .38
Nov
16		 Stetson F C- A A+ B 40% 8% 52% B+ B+ F F+ F F F C F+ A- A+ D A+ A+ 31% 29% 40% B+ A+ C+ D C- F C- C+ C-
1.04 60% 50% 42% +8 +2 1.22 23% 1.0 .23 25% .20 73% .15 0.89 39% 41% 26% -10 -2 0.79 24% 1.1 .27 14% .30 68% .21
Nov
19		 UNC Asheville B+ C+ B F C- 49% 24% 27% C- C- A+ F B B+ A+ A+ A+ F+ F D F F 15% 43% 43% A F B+ A+ A+ C F A+ C
1.24 59% 45% 25% -1 0 1.00 49% 0.7 .36 12% .51 79% .41 1.13 71% 45% 50% +15 -5 1.23 25% 0.6 .16 17% .43 52% .22
Nov
22		 Lipscomb F A+ A+ F F 25% 22% 53% D+ F F A+ D+ F C- F D C- D A+ D- D 35% 10% 55% C D+ C- F D D A+ A+ A+
0.83 77% 55% 15% -7 -1 0.86 15% 1.8 .26 24% .27 60% .16 1.11 64% 17% 38% +3 +1 1.11 25% 1.2 .30 15% .09 50% .05
Nov
29		 High Point D A+ A+ C+ A+ 31% 24% 45% F+ A C- F F F C+ F D+ D F F F F 34% 21% 45% A F B- A+ A+ A C+ B B-
0.98 75% 58% 35% +11 -1 1.22 30% 0.1 .03 26% .33 61% .20 1.25 72% 64% 46% +18 0 1.38 29% 0.6 .18 19% .35 71% .25
Dec
6		 South Carolina Upstate F F F F F 46% 20% 34% C F F A- D B- A+ A+ A+ D F C B D 24% 24% 51% A- D+ A F C- C F F F
0.93 43% 10% 24% -18 +1 0.68 21% 1.3 .29 14% .45 82% .37 1.09 73% 36% 30% 0 -1 1.00 22% 1.3 .28 18% .51 80% .41
Dec
11		 Virginia Tech C+ F B+ A B- 41% 22% 37% C+ B- A- F C D+ A+ F A+ F C- D+ F F 35% 18% 47% C F D D+ D- C+ D- A C-
1.02 45% 45% 39% -1 0 1.00 38% 0.8 .30 19% .51 60% .31 1.32 63% 40% 50% +13 0 1.29 37% 1.2 .43 15% .37 65% .24
Dec
18		 Georgia C A- A B+ A+ 38% 26% 36% D+ A F A+ B- C- C+ F D+ F C- F F F 49% 16% 35% C- F A- B A- C F D+ F
1.02 64% 47% 38% +7 -1 1.14 18% 1.8 .32 20% .26 59% .15 1.39 64% 63% 56% +18 +1 1.41 31% 1.0 .31 14% .58 78% .45
Dec
31		 Wofford F+ D F F F 61% 4% 35% A+ F A+ F D+ F A+ F A+ C- A F F F+ 32% 12% 56% C+ D- B+ F+ C+ B D- C+ D
1.04 52% 0% 22% -12 +4 0.86 43% 0.7 .30 20% .51 69% .35 1.11 44% 67% 39% +3 +1 1.10 24% 1.1 .26 17% .39 70% .27
Jan
3		 Furman B- F D- A+ C+ 40% 33% 27% D- C A+ B- A D B- F C C F B+ C- D- 27% 25% 48% A+ D+ B A- B+ F C+ A+ A
1.12 41% 33% 53% 0 -1 0.98 41% 1.1 .44 17% .27 63% .17 1.08 80% 36% 33% +5 -1 1.09 26% 0.8 .21 14% .28 47% .13
Jan
7		 Samford C+ F F A- F 52% 28% 20% B+ F A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ D- B+ F F D- 37% 21% 42% C D- D+ D+ D+ D- C+ F F
1.14 46% 21% 40% -9 0 0.84 41% 1.5 .59 15% .44 88% .38 1.22 53% 45% 41% +4 0 1.10 26% 1.1 .29 10% .35 90% .31
Jan
10		 The Citadel D+ C D F+ F 35% 15% 50% C- F D F F+ A- D+ F D- F+ C+ D C+ D+ 35% 20% 45% C+ D+ F F F D F F F
1.10 62% 33% 30% -2 0 0.98 29% 0.8 .24 11% .26 63% .16 1.13 53% 40% 32% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.1 .42 16% .47 82% .39
Jan
14		 East Tennessee St. B- C A+ B- B+ 36% 17% 47% C- B A D- B- F+ D C D C C A C B- 44% 14% 42% D C+ D+ A+ A+ F F B- F+
1.15 59% 63% 36% +6 0 1.15 39% 0.8 .32 22% .25 75% .18 1.08 59% 29% 33% -1 +1 1.02 29% 0.5 .13 8% .40 74% .29
Jan
17		 Chattanooga B F A+ A+ B 40% 23% 37% C- B B+ F D+ A C F D F D+ A+ F F 32% 8% 60% F F C F D- F D- F F
1.26 43% 67% 42% +5 0 1.12 39% 0.8 .32 9% .36 62% .22 1.38 63% 25% 50% +15 +1 1.34 21% 1.4 .29 11% .33 95% .31
Jan
21		 Mercer C- D C D F 42% 10% 48% A- D- A- C B+ F C+ D C F D+ F A+ B 44% 11% 44% F C+ F C F F F B- F
1.09 50% 40% 32% -5 +2 0.96 41% 1.0 .41 23% .28 73% .20 1.26 63% 67% 21% -4 +2 0.98 47% 1.0 .47 10% .45 71% .32
Jan
24		 VMI A+ D+ A- A C 41% 11% 48% B+ C+ A+ B- A+ A+ F F F C- D- A+ D+ D 27% 14% 59% C+ D+ A+ F C+ D- A+ F A+
1.51 59% 50% 42% +8 +1 1.20 57% 1.1 .63 7% .06 33% .02 1.00 62% 0% 34% -4 0 0.94 16% 1.4 .22 14% .12 83% .10
Jan
29		 East Tennessee St. A+ A+ F B A 33% 15% 52% C- A- B+ A+ A+ B+ A+ C A+ F C F D+ F+ 40% 20% 40% C+ D- C+ C C+ F F D F
1.31 87% 14% 38% +8 0 1.20 35% 1.3 .45 16% .49 75% .37 1.29 60% 60% 35% +6 0 1.14 26% 1.1 .29 9% .56 80% .45
Feb
1		 Samford D- D- D- F F 35% 26% 39% C+ F D+ F F+ A- A C A- F F A+ F F 36% 11% 52% F+ F F+ B- D+ B+ F D- F
1.02 50% 33% 27% -8 -1 0.84 23% 0.8 .18 10% .37 75% .28 1.21 75% 20% 39% +8 +1 1.20 30% 1.0 .30 17% .68 73% .50
Feb
4		 UNC Greensboro C F A+ B- C- 28% 26% 45% D- D+ B+ F D+ D+ A+ D- A- F+ A+ F+ F D+ 40% 19% 40% D- D+ F B F+ B F F F
1.17 40% 64% 38% +4 -1 1.08 37% 0.8 .29 15% .37 67% .25 1.21 37% 44% 47% +1 0 1.04 39% 0.9 .36 18% .49 89% .44
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Wofford F F F F F 51% 7% 42% A- F C+ B B- C- F F F C F D- C F 49% 17% 34% C- F A+ C- A A- A+ F B
0.96 43% 25% 26% -14 +3 0.80 32% 1.2 .39 16% .17 60% .10 1.12 69% 44% 33% +6 +1 1.17 15% 1.0 .15 19% .22 92% .20
Feb
11		 The Citadel A C F A+ B- 53% 4% 43% A B B+ A+ A+ B F F F A+ A A+ A+ A+ 36% 16% 49% D+ A+ A- B- B+ B- C- F F
1.39 63% 0% 45% +9 +3 1.25 40% 1.6 .63 13% .20 55% .11 0.78 44% 14% 23% -17 0 0.69 21% 0.9 .18 19% .28 93% .26
Feb
14		 Chattanooga B- F A- C- D- 35% 18% 47% C D A+ C- A C- A A A+ D+ C F B- D- 30% 25% 46% B D C F F F+ A+ F A+
1.18 44% 44% 33% -4 0 0.94 47% 1.1 .53 15% .42 80% .34 1.10 59% 64% 31% +4 -1 1.09 21% 1.7 .34 12% .10 100% .10
Feb
18		 UNC Greensboro B C B+ A B- 29% 25% 46% D C+ D A+ A+ C- A+ B+ A+ D+ D- F D F 51% 12% 37% F F A- A+ A+ B- C+ C C+
1.29 60% 46% 42% +8 -1 1.15 27% 2.1 .57 14% .36 77% .28 1.09 65% 50% 37% +7 +2 1.20 21% 0.3 .07 17% .34 70% .24
Feb
21		 VMI B C A- D D- 21% 26% 53% F F+ F A+ C- A+ D+ A+ B- C+ B- C+ F F 31% 18% 51% B- F+ A+ A+ A+ F A A A
1.28 64% 50% 32% +3 -2 1.04 29% 1.3 .37 5% .28 88% .25 0.98 50% 33% 38% 0 0 1.02 14% 0.6 .08 11% .20 64% .12
Feb
25		 Mercer C F A+ D- D+ 43% 20% 36% C+ D+ C F+ D+ C A+ A+ A+ C C- F A+ C- 46% 30% 24% C+ C- B+ A+ A C+ D- C+ D
1.14 42% 78% 31% 0 0 1.02 33% 0.8 .27 17% .48 93% .44 1.08 61% 60% 17% +2 -1 1.04 28% 0.8 .21 17% .39 73% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 4.6 4.6 3rd
4th 23.2 23.2 4th
5th 18.9 18.9 5th
6th 42.8 42.8 6th
7th 10.5 10.5 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 53.3 46.7 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 46.7% 6.3% 6.3% 15.9 0.3 2.7 43.8
9-9 53.3% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.0 2.7 50.6
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 15.9 94.4 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.9% 100.0% 15.9 9.3 90.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 12.3%
Lose Out 6.6%