Western Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -6.4 272
Results Rating -6.1 259
Consistency 0.18 326
Pace 69.0 165
Improvement -0.8 221

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 204 D+ C C C- C-
Defense D 315 D+ C- F+ C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 197 D- 51% 331 -3.0 289
2 Pt. Jumpers 47% 81 C 37% 193 +1.3 108
Three Pointers 37% 250 C+ 35% 132 -1.2 224
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.5 259 D+ -2.3 264
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 272
Second Chance C 29.6% 203 C 1.03 179 C 0.30 192
Opponents' Steals C+ 9.2% 156
Other Turnovers C- 7.6% 225
Turnovers C 16.8% 181
Freethrows D+ 0.28 251 C+ 73% 160 C- 0.21 224
Total Offense C- -1.2 204

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 42% 291 F 17.5% 362
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 131 C+ 4.5% 144
Three Pointers C+ 86% 145 D+ 1.3% 294
Total C- 53% 239 F 8.3% 359

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 232 D 63% 308 +0.9 214
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 351 B- 35% 77 -2.9 8
Three Pointers 49% 13 C- 35% 243 +5.0 348
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 307 D+ +2.2 270
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 282
Second Chance C 30.2% 175 D 1.13 306 C- 0.34 257
Turnovers from Steals F 5.9% 358
Other Turnovers C- 7.1% 208
Turnovers F+ 13.0% 353
Freethrows C- 0.32 230 B- 71% 85 C 0.22 208
Total Defense D -5.1 315

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 47% 143 D 6.6% 331
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 20% 72 D+ 3.0% 298
Three Pointers D 89% 328 C 1.0% 137
Total D+ 60% 282 D- 3.4% 336

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.2 270 16.4 32
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 159 0.20 283
Consistency 0.13 209 0.14 275
Improvement +0.0 190 -0.8 233

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 287 272 255
Results Rating Rank 284 258 238
Conference Record 4 - 14 5 - 13 6 - 12
Conference Finish 13 10 9
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 39% 19% 90%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Ball St. (Home) - 71.0% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 32 - 62 - 12
Quad 48 - 710 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 228 Coastal Carolina W 76 - 71 51% -1  30% 1 - 0 C- -2 D -6 C F F B +3 B- D- B-
 Sun, Nov 9 196 @Campbell L 82 - 91 25% -6  5% 1 - 1 D -8 D -5 F+ F D+ C- -2 D- D+ C+
 Wed, Nov 12 259 Purdue Fort Wayne W 83 - 71 58% +1  45% 2 - 1 C+ +4 D+ -3 D- D+ C- B+ +6 A+ D D-
 Sun, Nov 16 285 @South Dakota L 78 - 83 41% +3  79% 2 - 2 D -9 C+ +2 B A+ F F -11 D+ D- F
 Thu, Nov 20 36 @Ohio St. L 58 - 91 3% -25  0% 2 - 3 F+ -16 F -13 F D+ F C- -2 C- B- B-
 Sun, Nov 23 286 Mount St. Mary's W 83 - 60 64% +8  97% 3 - 3 B+ +13 B+ +8 B C+ A+ B+ +6 C+ B- B
 Sat, Nov 29 150 @Valparaiso L 55 - 84 18% -14  6% 3 - 4 F -25 F -14 F B+ F F -14 F F C
 Wed, Dec 3 338 Southern Indiana W 88 - 74 78% +13  95% 4 - 4 C -1 B- +5 A- C+ B- D- -6 F C F
 Sat, Dec 6 260 @SIU Edwardsville W 83 - 73 35% +8  95% 5 - 4 B- +7 A +13 A+ A- F D -6 C- C- F
 Sun, Dec 14 24 @Iowa L 51 - 91 2% -30  0% 5 - 5 F -21 F -12 F B+ B F -13 F C F
 Sat, Dec 20 206 Buffalo L 71 - 88 47% -10  6% 5 - 6 0 - 1 F -23 D -5 D- F A+ F -18 D+ F F
 Tue, Dec 30 164 @Toledo L 79 - 84 20% +3  59% 5 - 7 0 - 2 C- -2 C +0 D- C- D- C- -2 A- F D+
 Tue, Jan 6 87 @Miami (OH) L 76 - 87 8% -6  6% 5 - 8 0 - 3 C -2 C -0 D D B C -1 C D- A-
 Sat, Jan 10 247 Eastern Michigan W 79 - 62 56% +1  54% 6 - 8 1 - 3 B +9 B +7 A- B F B- +3 D+ A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 13 190 Massachusetts L 82 - 85 44% -4  16% 6 - 9 1 - 4 D+ -8 B +6 B A+ B F -14 C F F+
 Sat, Jan 17 72 @Akron L 89 - 104 6% -2  42% 6 - 10 1 - 5 C- -4 A+ +19 A+ B+ C+ F -23 F F F
 Tue, Jan 20 177 Bowling Green L 54 - 72 41% -10  9% 6 - 11 1 - 6 F -22 F -19 F D F D+ -4 C A F
 Sat, Jan 24 266 Central Michigan W 77 - 65 60% +3  62% 7 - 11 2 - 6 C+ +3 C- -1 D- D- A+ B +5 A+ D- D+
 Tue, Jan 27 321 @Northern Illinois L 65 - 85 54% -12  0% 7 - 12 2 - 7 F -27 C- -1 D- D- D+ F -29 F F F
 Tue, Feb 3 210 @Ohio L 71 - 91 26% -13  0% 7 - 13 2 - 8 F -20 D+ -4 C+ F A+ F -16 F F D-
 Sat, Feb 7 234 @Texas St. L 61 - 77 30% -5  19% 7 - 14 F+ -17 D- -7 F+ C+ D F -11 F C+ D-
 Wed, Feb 11 164 Toledo L 79 - 90 38% -5  15% 7 - 15 2 - 9 D- -14 C +1 F A A+ F -15 F B+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 247 @Eastern Michigan W 76 - 62 33% -2  30% 8 - 15 3 - 9 B+ +12 B+ +9 F+ A+ A B +5 C B- F
 Tue, Feb 17 72 Akron L 73 - 90 14% -13  1% 8 - 16 3 - 10 D- -12 C- -0 C+ F A+ F -12 F+ A F
 Sat, Feb 21 266 @Central Michigan L 70 - 83 37% -7  12% 8 - 17 3 - 11 F+ -16 F -12 F C- F+ D+ -3 D B- D-
 Tue, Feb 24 177 @Bowling Green W 88 - 79 22% +2  64% 9 - 17 4 - 11 B +11 A +12 B- C+ A+ C -1 C B+ F
 Fri, Feb 27 87 Miami (OH) L 67 - 69 18% +3  74% 9 - 18 4 - 12 C +1 D- -7 F+ C+ B- A- +8 B A+ D+
 Tue, Mar 3 313 Ball St. W 72 - 66 71%
 Fri, Mar 6 159 @Kent St. L 76 - 85 19%
Totals 10 - 19 5 - 13 -6 C- -1 D D+ C- D -5 C+ C+ C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D- C C+ D+ 38% 47% 37% C- D+ C C C C D+ C+ C- D D B- C- D+ 37% 14% 49% D D+ C D C- F+ C- B- C
1.07 51% 37% 35% -2 -1 0.96 30% 1.0 .30 17% .28 73% .21 1.16 63% 35% 35% +2 +1 1.08 30% 1.1 .34 13% .32 71% .20
Nov
3		 Coastal Carolina D D+ A+ F C 38% 31% 31% C+ C F C- F F A+ A A+ B D B- A B- 25% 26% 49% C+ B- B F D- B- F+ A+ C
1.01 50% 53% 27% -2 -1 0.96 16% 1.0 .16 20% .58 80% .46 0.94 62% 36% 27% -5 -2 0.89 22% 1.4 .32 17% .32 60% .19
Nov
9		 Campbell D F C- C+ F+ 50% 25% 25% C+ F+ D+ F F D+ A A A+ C- A- C+ F F+ 32% 13% 55% B D- A+ F D+ C+ F C+ F
1.02 50% 36% 36% -4 0 0.95 28% 0.8 .23 19% .40 81% .32 1.13 47% 33% 42% +3 +1 1.09 24% 1.6 .38 19% .63 71% .44
Nov
12		 Purdue Fort Wayne D+ C F D F+ 43% 14% 43% C+ D- A- F D+ C- D+ C- D+ B+ B+ C A+ A+ 30% 13% 57% C+ A+ F B- D D- C+ F+ C
1.09 60% 25% 32% -2 +1 1.00 43% 0.8 .33 20% .25 73% .18 0.94 50% 38% 23% -12 0 0.79 29% 0.9 .27 12% .24 75% .18
Nov
16		 South Dakota C+ A- C+ F B- 62% 15% 23% B B A- A+ A+ F F A D- F A- F D+ D+ 28% 15% 57% C+ D+ C F D- F B A+ A
1.13 69% 43% 27% +5 +2 1.17 41% 1.5 .59 22% .20 82% .17 1.21 47% 50% 35% 0 0 1.02 27% 1.3 .34 4% .33 64% .21
Nov
20		 Ohio St. F F F F F 21% 42% 38% F F D+ D+ D+ F C- C C- C- F F B- C- 33% 16% 51% D- C- F A+ B- B- D+ C- D+
0.80 45% 27% 25% -12 -4 0.70 26% 0.9 .23 22% .27 73% .19 1.25 83% 56% 32% +10 0 1.22 47% 0.7 .33 17% .38 78% .30
Nov
23		 Mount St. Mary's B+ C A+ D+ B 43% 19% 38% B- B D A+ C+ A+ F A+ F+ B+ C A+ C+ B- 41% 10% 49% D+ C+ A F B- B A F B-
1.22 56% 64% 32% +3 +1 1.09 24% 1.4 .33 9% .23 86% .19 0.88 57% 0% 32% -6 +2 0.94 21% 1.3 .27 25% .22 82% .18
Nov
29		 Valparaiso F F F B- F 42% 27% 31% C- F C A+ B+ F F+ F F F A+ F F F 30% 24% 46% D F F F+ F C F F F
0.85 42% 17% 36% -12 -1 0.78 31% 1.2 .37 25% .24 58% .14 1.29 43% 45% 48% +6 -1 1.13 42% 1.2 .52 15% .47 88% .42
Dec
3		 Southern Indiana B- B- A+ B A- 49% 15% 36% B- A- F A+ C+ B- F F F D- A+ C- F F 33% 23% 44% C F A+ F C F F A+ F
1.22 62% 56% 38% +7 +1 1.19 17% 2.0 .34 14% .19 67% .13 1.02 38% 36% 43% -1 -1 0.98 20% 1.2 .24 10% .55 50% .28
Dec
6		 SIU Edwardsville A D A+ A+ A+ 27% 30% 43% D- A+ C+ A+ A- F A- A+ A+ D C- D- A- C 34% 21% 45% D- C- B F C- F C- A B-
1.22 50% 54% 58% +18 -2 1.34 33% 1.3 .43 28% .39 89% .35 1.07 58% 42% 28% -3 0 0.95 24% 1.2 .29 7% .27 59% .16
Dec
14		 Iowa F F F F F 34% 21% 45% C- F A C- B+ B A+ F C- F D- D- F F 40% 8% 52% D F B- D+ C F B A+ A
0.79 38% 10% 24% -20 0 0.62 36% 0.9 .33 20% .43 50% .21 1.42 71% 50% 48% +17 +2 1.40 31% 1.1 .34 9% .29 65% .19
Dec
20		 Buffalo D D C- C- D- 35% 14% 51% C D- D+ F F A+ F+ C F+ F F A+ C C- 34% 8% 58% D D+ D F F F D C- D
1.08 55% 38% 34% -1 +1 1.02 29% 0.4 .12 11% .20 75% .15 1.34 71% 25% 34% +4 +1 1.12 30% 1.5 .45 6% .39 75% .29
Dec
30		 Toledo C F C+ B D- 36% 27% 38% F+ D- A F C- D- C C C C- F F A+ A 37% 22% 41% C- A- F C F D+ F A F
1.10 45% 40% 38% -2 -1 0.96 45% 0.7 .33 21% .25 71% .18 1.17 78% 55% 10% -4 0 0.94 43% 1.0 .43 14% .58 67% .39
Jan
6		 Miami (OH) C D A+ F D- 52% 19% 30% A- D C+ F D B A- C- B+ C F C- A+ C+ 43% 11% 47% F+ C F A- D- A- F D F
1.03 54% 50% 25% -4 +1 0.96 30% 0.6 .19 15% .35 73% .25 1.18 80% 40% 27% +5 +2 1.15 34% 1.0 .34 19% .57 79% .45
Jan
10		 Eastern Michigan B A+ F+ A+ A+ 31% 38% 31% F A- B+ C B F A+ C+ A+ B- D B- A+ C+ 49% 6% 45% F D+ A+ A+ A+ C- A A+ A
1.19 77% 31% 46% +9 -3 1.14 37% 1.0 .37 21% .52 74% .38 0.94 64% 33% 26% -3 +3 1.02 18% 0.7 .12 17% .18 60% .11
Jan
13		 Massachusetts B D- A+ A B+ 32% 15% 53% C B A- A+ A+ B F B- F F C- C- C+ C 29% 19% 52% C+ C D+ F F F+ C- F F+
1.21 53% 63% 39% +6 0 1.15 35% 1.3 .47 15% .28 75% .21 1.26 60% 40% 33% 0 0 1.02 34% 1.8 .60 15% .35 80% .28
Jan
17		 Akron A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 35% 21% 44% D+ A+ B B B+ C+ D+ F D F D C+ F F 33% 15% 53% C+ F F F F F A+ F A
1.31 61% 64% 48% +16 0 1.33 37% 1.1 .40 18% .25 64% .16 1.53 67% 38% 55% +19 0 1.42 41% 1.5 .62 12% .15 89% .13
Jan
20		 Bowling Green F F A+ F F 34% 15% 51% C F C F D F F B D- D+ C+ F A B- 58% 6% 36% F C C+ A+ A F F B- F
0.81 31% 57% 25% -13 0 0.77 28% 0.8 .23 23% .25 77% .19 1.08 55% 67% 28% -3 +3 1.02 26% 0.4 .11 12% .46 70% .32
Jan
24		 Central Michigan C- D- F D F 50% 15% 35% B- D- D- D+ D- A+ A+ C- A+ B C A+ A+ A+ 39% 14% 47% F A+ C- F D- D+ F D F
1.13 52% 29% 31% -6 +2 0.93 30% 1.1 .33 10% .54 70% .38 0.96 58% 0% 17% -17 +1 0.69 29% 1.3 .39 16% .46 73% .33
Jan
27		 Northern Illinois C- F F C+ D- 34% 17% 49% D+ D- A F D- D+ A+ A+ A+ F B F F F 36% 8% 56% D+ F F D+ F F A+ B+ A+
1.07 50% 29% 35% -4 0 0.95 42% 0.6 .25 18% .54 81% .44 1.40 50% 75% 50% +13 +1 1.32 50% 0.9 .44 15% .19 60% .12
Feb
3		 Ohio D+ D F A+ C 52% 21% 27% C+ C+ F F+ F A+ A F F F F D- F F 35% 8% 58% F F D+ F F D- D F F
1.03 52% 27% 50% +1 +1 1.06 21% 0.9 .18 9% .40 40% .16 1.32 72% 50% 40% +11 +1 1.27 30% 1.3 .40 13% .37 82% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Texas St. D- F A- B- F+ 40% 22% 38% D+ F+ C+ B- C+ D F A+ F F F F+ F F 36% 32% 32% B- F B+ D C+ D- A F B+
0.96 40% 45% 37% -4 0 0.94 31% 1.0 .31 20% .12 83% .10 1.21 68% 47% 41% +10 -2 1.19 27% 1.0 .27 16% .19 90% .17
Feb
11		 Toledo C F B- D F 28% 31% 41% F F D+ A+ A A+ B A+ A- F D+ F F F 49% 15% 36% F F A+ F B+ F F A+ F+
1.15 40% 41% 32% -5 -2 0.87 32% 1.6 .50 12% .28 82% .23 1.31 62% 75% 47% +14 +1 1.34 14% 1.5 .21 7% .44 61% .27
Feb
14		 Eastern Michigan B+ F F A+ F 54% 19% 27% B F+ A A+ A+ A A A+ A+ B C- A+ F C 38% 28% 34% C C A+ F B- F A A+ A+
1.18 31% 22% 54% -10 +1 0.85 39% 1.3 .50 11% .40 83% .33 0.96 60% 13% 44% -1 -1 0.98 17% 1.3 .22 12% .16 56% .09
Feb
17		 Akron C- A+ F A+ B+ 20% 35% 45% F C+ F D- F A+ D- B+ D F D A+ F D- 49% 9% 42% F F+ D- A+ A F C B- C+
1.08 82% 21% 44% +6 -3 1.07 17% 0.8 .14 13% .22 77% .17 1.33 67% 0% 48% +9 +2 1.25 38% 0.8 .29 10% .26 75% .20
Feb
21		 Central Michigan F F+ D- F F 47% 25% 27% D+ F D- A C- F+ A- B+ A D+ F+ D+ A+ C- 51% 15% 34% F D B C- B- D- F F F
0.94 50% 31% 21% -11 0 0.80 30% 1.4 .41 20% .42 76% .32 1.11 67% 43% 25% +1 +2 1.06 25% 1.1 .29 15% .60 76% .46
Feb
24		 Bowling Green A C+ B- A- B+ 38% 37% 25% F B- F A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C D+ A+ F C 45% 18% 36% B- C B A- B+ F F A F
1.21 60% 42% 38% +4 -2 1.06 19% 1.7 .31 12% .48 87% .42 1.08 60% 10% 40% -1 +1 1.02 23% 0.7 .15 10% .49 66% .32
Feb
27		 Miami (OH) D- C F F F+ 46% 32% 22% D+ F+ C B C+ B- A- C A- A- F A+ A+ B+ 49% 20% 31% D+ B A+ A- A+ D+ F A+ C-
0.98 61% 25% 27% -5 -1 0.90 29% 1.0 .29 16% .35 75% .26 1.01 75% 20% 27% +1 +1 1.06 12% 1.0 .12 13% .42 60% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 3.0 3.0 8th
9th 6.1 8.9 15.0 9th
10th 36.6 2.0 38.6 10th
11th 3.0 17.4 20.4 11th
12th 10.7 2.2 12.9 12th
13th 10.0 0.0 10.0 13th
Total 23.7 62.3 14.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12 14.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.0
5-13 62.3% 62.3
4-14 23.7% 23.7
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 12.4% 0.1% 16.0 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 23.7%