Western Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.1 #250
Expected Predictive Rating -5.0 #247
Pace 69.8 #157
Improvement +1.9 #84

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #186 C- C D C- C-
Defense #309 C- D- F C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #196 1.07 #285 -2.1 #258
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #111 0.76 #164 +1.4 #99
Three Pointers 38% #242 1.05 #132 -0.6 #202
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #207 -1.3 #207
Freethrows 16.0 #257 74% #130 11.9 #223
Second Chance 31.3% #159 0.99 #249 0.31 #191
Turnovers 18.4% #289
Total Offense -0.8 #186

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #297 1.25 #292 +0.9 #139
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #340 0.79 #248 +2.0 #55
Three Pointers 51% #10 0.97 #128 -4.3 #335
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #229 -1.4 #232
Freethrows 16.8 #164 70% #85 11.8 #227
Second Chance 30.9% #189 1.23 #344 0.38 #307
Turnovers 13.4% #336
Total Defense -4.3 #309

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.0% #252 0.9% #249
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.6% #199 1.8% #220
Possession Length 18.2 #265 16.3 #41
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #105 0.20 #275
Improvement +2.8 #38 -0.9 #240

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 1.2% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 6.1% 19.7% 5.2%
.500 or above in Conference 8.2% 26.3% 7.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.6% 3.8% 12.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.3% 1.1% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Akron (Away) - 6.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 72 - 13
Quad 49 - 511 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 268 Coastal Carolina W 76 - 71 65% -1  1 - 0 -4 -5 C F F +1 C F A
 Sun, Nov 9 191 @Campbell L 82 - 91 27% -6  1 - 1 -8 -2 D- F D -5 F C- C
 Wed, Nov 12 237 Purdue Fort Wayne W 83 - 71 58% +1  2 - 1 +5 -0 D- D C- +4 A+ C- F
 Sun, Nov 16 282 @South Dakota L 78 - 83 45% +3  2 - 2 -9 +3 B A+ F -12 C- F F
 Thu, Nov 20 36 @Ohio St. L 58 - 91 3% -25  2 - 3 -16 -11 F D+ F -5 C- C C+
 Sun, Nov 23 297 Mount St. Mary's W 83 - 60 71% +8  3 - 3 +12 +10 B- B- A+ +3 C C+ A-
 Sat, Nov 29 184 @Valparaiso L 55 - 84 27% -14  3 - 4 -28 -12 F A- F -18 F F C
 Wed, Dec 3 343 Southern Indiana W 88 - 74 81% +13  4 - 4 -0 +7 B+ B B- -8 F D+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 278 @SIU Edwardsville W 83 - 73 44% +8  5 - 4 +6 +14 A+ B F -7 C- C F
 Sun, Dec 14 22 @Iowa L 51 - 91 2% -30  5 - 5 -21 -8 F B B- -17 F B- F
 Sat, Dec 20 199 Buffalo L 71 - 88 51% -10  5 - 6 0 - 1 -22 -3 D- F A+ -20 D+ F F
 Tue, Dec 30 164 @Toledo L 79 - 84 24% +3  5 - 7 0 - 2 -3 +3 F B- F -5 A+ F C
 Tue, Jan 6 84 @Miami (OH) L 76 - 87 9% -6  5 - 8 0 - 3 -1 +3 D D B -3 B- F A-
 Sat, Jan 10 211 Eastern Michigan W 79 - 62 53% +1  6 - 8 1 - 3 +11 +10 A+ B F +2 D+ A+ C
 Tue, Jan 13 168 Massachusetts L 82 - 85 45% -4  6 - 9 1 - 4 -7 +11 A- A+ B -18 C F F
 Sat, Jan 17 67 @Akron L 76 - 92 6%
 Tue, Jan 20 131 Bowling Green L 74 - 78 36%
 Sat, Jan 24 325 Central Michigan W 79 - 71 77%
 Tue, Jan 27 331 @Northern Illinois W 78 - 75 60%
 Tue, Feb 3 178 @Ohio L 76 - 83 26%
 Sat, Feb 7 261 @Texas St. L 73 - 75 41%
 Wed, Feb 11 164 Toledo L 80 - 81 45%
 Sat, Feb 14 211 @Eastern Michigan L 70 - 75 31%
 Tue, Feb 17 67 Akron L 79 - 89 17%
 Sat, Feb 21 325 @Central Michigan W 76 - 74 57%
 Tue, Feb 24 131 @Bowling Green L 71 - 81 19%
 Sat, Feb 28 84 Miami (OH) L 76 - 85 21%
 Tue, Mar 3 303 Ball St. W 75 - 69 72%
 Fri, Mar 6 146 @Kent St. L 79 - 88 20%
Totals 11 - 18 6 - 12 -5 -1 C- C D -4 C- D- F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.1 1.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.0 0.6 0.0 3.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.2 1.8 0.1 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 4.7 4.7 0.5 0.0 10.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 6.0 7.7 1.9 0.1 16.6 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 8.5 11.3 3.8 0.2 24.9 10th
11th 0.7 6.6 8.7 2.8 0.2 19.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 4.1 5.4 1.7 0.1 11.6 12th
13th 0.2 1.7 2.2 0.7 0.0 4.8 13th
Total 0.3 2.0 7.0 13.9 20.0 20.8 17.0 10.8 5.2 2.2 0.6 0.2 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 3.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.2% 9.4% 9.4% 13.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 15.0 0.0 0.6
10-8 2.2% 2.7% 2.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1
9-9 5.2% 1.7% 1.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.1
8-10 10.8% 1.0% 1.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.7
7-11 17.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 17.0
6-12 20.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 20.8
5-13 20.0% 20.0
4-14 13.9% 13.9
3-15 7.0% 7.0
2-16 2.0% 2.0
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.2 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%