Winthrop
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.3#105
Expected Predictive Rating+0.2#167
Pace75.0#60
Improvement+0.8#109

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#93
First Shot+3.2#82
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#181
Layup/Dunks-3.6#299
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#221
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.2#2
Freethrows-1.6#276
Improvement+0.6#124

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#128
First Shot+1.7#116
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#219
Layups/Dunks+2.6#88
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#280
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#189
Freethrows+0.4#155
Improvement+0.2#170
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.6% 34.9% 27.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.8
.500 or above 97.3% 97.6% 88.9%
.500 or above in Conference 98.5% 98.6% 96.2%
Conference Champion 41.8% 42.3% 30.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round34.6% 34.8% 27.5%
Second Round4.1% 4.2% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.8% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina St. (Home) - 96.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 11 - 5
Quad 33 - 24 - 7
Quad 417 - 321 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 210 Queens W 81-74 76%     1 - 0 +4.0 +0.5 +3.2
  Fri, Nov 7 74 @George Mason L 90-96 27%     1 - 1 +4.7 +14.6 -9.4
  Tue, Nov 11 253 @Coastal Carolina L 66-72 73%     1 - 2 -8.0 -7.0 -0.9
  Sat, Nov 15 206 Mercer W 105-69 83%     2 - 2 +30.0 +13.3 +11.8
  Tue, Nov 18 25 @Arkansas L 83-84 12%     2 - 3 +16.2 +17.0 -0.7
  Sun, Nov 23 326 @Jackson St. W 80-62 84%     3 - 3 +11.8 +11.8 +1.6
  Tue, Nov 25 43 @Nebraska L 73-80 16%     3 - 4 +7.9 +6.9 +0.9
  Sat, Nov 29 347 South Carolina St. W 87-68 96%    
  Tue, Dec 2 232 @LIU Brooklyn W 80-75 70%    
  Sat, Dec 6 253 Coastal Carolina W 84-72 87%    
  Thu, Dec 18 319 @North Dakota W 82-72 81%    
  Sun, Dec 28 24 @Texas Tech L 71-84 11%    
  Wed, Dec 31 260 @Longwood W 84-77 73%    
  Sat, Jan 3 356 Gardner-Webb W 91-71 97%    
  Wed, Jan 7 282 Charleston Southern W 86-72 90%    
  Sat, Jan 10 316 @South Carolina Upstate W 85-75 81%    
  Wed, Jan 14 86 High Point W 82-81 53%    
  Sat, Jan 17 218 @UNC Asheville W 81-76 67%    
  Wed, Jan 21 273 Radford W 89-76 88%    
  Sat, Jan 24 275 @Presbyterian W 74-67 75%    
  Sat, Jan 31 218 UNC Asheville W 84-73 83%    
  Wed, Feb 4 273 @Radford W 86-79 75%    
  Sat, Feb 7 260 Longwood W 87-74 86%    
  Thu, Feb 12 356 @Gardner-Webb W 88-74 90%    
  Thu, Feb 19 316 South Carolina Upstate W 88-72 92%    
  Sat, Feb 21 86 @High Point L 79-84 33%    
  Thu, Feb 26 282 @Charleston Southern W 83-75 76%    
  Sat, Feb 28 275 Presbyterian W 77-64 89%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 3.4 8.5 14.3 11.4 3.6 41.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.1 8.9 13.7 11.2 4.0 41.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.9 3.4 1.0 0.1 11.1 3rd
4th 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 4.5 7.8 13.0 18.1 19.8 18.3 11.4 3.6 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 3.6    3.6
15-1 100.0% 11.4    10.0 1.4
14-2 78.0% 14.3    9.7 4.6 0.0
13-3 43.0% 8.5    4.3 4.0 0.2
12-4 18.6% 3.4    1.1 1.8 0.5 0.0
11-5 4.4% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 41.8% 41.8 28.7 12.2 0.9 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 3.6% 60.8% 60.8% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.4
15-1 11.4% 51.4% 51.4% 12.5 0.0 0.4 2.7 2.4 0.4 0.0 5.5
14-2 18.3% 45.9% 45.9% 12.9 0.1 2.3 4.1 1.7 0.2 9.9
13-3 19.8% 35.9% 35.9% 13.3 0.0 1.1 3.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 12.7
12-4 18.1% 31.2% 31.2% 13.6 0.4 2.1 2.5 0.7 0.0 12.4
11-5 13.0% 22.0% 22.0% 14.0 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.6 0.1 10.1
10-6 7.8% 20.0% 20.0% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 6.2
9-7 4.5% 14.3% 14.3% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 3.9
8-8 2.0% 10.9% 10.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.8
7-9 1.0% 6.2% 6.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.9
6-10 0.3% 8.2% 8.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3
5-11 0.1% 10.8% 10.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 34.6% 34.6% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.3 7.4 13.3 9.1 2.9 0.6 65.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 9.7 8.8 2.9 7.8 18.6 16.7 38.2 6.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%