Winthrop
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.0 #143
Expected Predictive Rating -2.5 #208
Pace 71.2 #117
Improvement -5.4 #359

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #107 C- B- B B- B-
Defense #217 C- D C C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #177 1.11 #242 -1.2 #225
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #305 0.59 #344 -3.4 #330
Three Pointers 47% #63 1.00 #197 +2.9 #90
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #222 -1.6 #220
Freethrows 19.3 #88 73% #179 14.1 #96
Second Chance 34.7% #71 1.04 #194 0.36 #98
Turnovers 14.8% #71
Total Offense +2.4 #107

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #193 1.13 #144 +0.5 #155
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #224 0.88 #330 -0.6 #222
Three Pointers 43% #132 1.04 #229 -1.5 #251
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #239 -1.7 #239
Freethrows 18.1 #220 73% #185 13.1 #143
Second Chance 31.0% #196 1.19 #328 0.37 #296
Turnovers 16.4% #193
Total Defense -1.4 #217

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #85 0.5% #206
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.7% #243 2.6% #233
Possession Length 16.8 #129 17.6 #234
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #187 0.16 #125
Improvement -3.6 #349 -1.9 #300

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.5% 23.5% 16.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.4
.500 or above 89.4% 95.8% 85.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.7% 99.4% 96.5%
Conference Champion 12.4% 25.4% 3.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round19.4% 23.4% 16.7%
Second Round0.8% 1.2% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: High Point (Home) - 40.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 33 - 24 - 7
Quad 414 - 517 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 202 Queens W 81 - 74 63% +2  1 - 0 +5 -0 F A+ C +5 A+ D- A+
 Fri, Nov 7 86 @George Mason L 90 - 96 21% -0  1 - 1 +4 +13 B F A+ -8 F B A-
 Tue, Nov 11 268 @Coastal Carolina L 66 - 72 65% -7  1 - 2 -9 -8 F F B- -1 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 153 Mercer W 105 - 69 64% +16  2 - 2 +33 +15 A- A- A+ +13 A+ A- A+
 Tue, Nov 18 26 @Arkansas L 83 - 84 6% -1  2 - 3 +17 +15 A- A+ A- +2 A- D+ C
 Sun, Nov 23 333 @Jackson St. W 80 - 62 80% +8  3 - 3 +10 +11 C C+ A +1 F C C+
 Tue, Nov 25 16 @Nebraska L 73 - 80 5% -2  3 - 4 +13 +11 A+ B A+ +2 A+ B+ F
 Sat, Nov 29 361 South Carolina St. W 101 - 79 95% +14  4 - 4 +4 +16 A A+ F -13 F D D-
 Tue, Dec 2 219 @LIU Brooklyn W 94 - 92 OT 55% +4  5 - 4 +2 +13 F A+ A+ -12 D- F D
 Sat, Dec 6 268 Coastal Carolina L 84 - 88 83% +1  5 - 5 -13 +9 D- A+ C -22 F F D-
 Thu, Dec 18 319 @North Dakota L 88 - 90 76% +2  5 - 6 -8 +12 A- B+ A+ -20 D F F
 Sun, Dec 28 21 @Texas Tech L 57 - 87 5% -26  5 - 7 -11 -8 F D- F -2 D+ C A+
 Wed, Dec 31 270 @Longwood L 70 - 82 66% -7  5 - 8 0 - 1 -15 -2 F C A+ -13 F F C
 Sat, Jan 3 362 Gardner-Webb W 88 - 77 96% -5  6 - 8 1 - 1 -8 +9 C F A- -17 F A F
 Wed, Jan 7 217 Charleston Southern W 81 - 77 75% -2  7 - 8 2 - 1 -2 -2 D C D -1 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 299 @South Carolina Upstate W 71 - 50 72% +15  8 - 8 3 - 1 +16 +1 C C F +16 A+ C B+
 Wed, Jan 14 87 High Point L 80 - 83 41%
 Sat, Jan 17 218 @UNC Asheville W 76 - 75 54%
 Wed, Jan 21 254 Radford W 88 - 79 81%
 Sat, Jan 24 292 @Presbyterian W 74 - 68 70%
 Sat, Jan 31 218 UNC Asheville W 79 - 72 75%
 Wed, Feb 4 254 @Radford W 85 - 82 62%
 Sat, Feb 7 270 Longwood W 84 - 74 83%
 Thu, Feb 12 362 @Gardner-Webb W 87 - 73 91%
 Thu, Feb 19 299 South Carolina Upstate W 82 - 70 87%
 Sat, Feb 21 87 @High Point L 77 - 86 21%
 Thu, Feb 26 217 @Charleston Southern W 80 - 79 54%
 Sat, Feb 28 292 Presbyterian W 77 - 65 86%
Totals 16 - 12 11 - 5 +1 +2 C- B- B -1 C- D C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.5 4.4 0.9 12.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 9.1 19.1 18.7 9.3 1.1 58.7 2nd
3rd 0.6 5.1 7.9 3.1 0.2 17.0 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 3.7 1.1 0.1 7.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 1.8 0.5 0.0 3.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 5.0 10.6 18.2 22.7 21.0 13.9 5.4 0.9 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9
14-2 80.2% 4.4    2.6 1.7
13-3 32.7% 4.5    1.8 2.7 0.1
12-4 10.0% 2.1    0.5 1.4 0.2 0.0
11-5 1.8% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 12.4% 12.4 5.9 6.0 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.9% 42.2% 42.2% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5
14-2 5.4% 33.0% 33.0% 13.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.6 0.0 3.7
13-3 13.9% 27.9% 27.9% 13.7 0.1 1.3 2.1 0.4 0.0 10.0
12-4 21.0% 22.6% 22.6% 14.1 0.0 0.9 2.6 1.3 0.0 16.2
11-5 22.7% 18.6% 18.6% 14.4 0.0 0.3 2.0 1.8 0.2 18.4
10-6 18.2% 14.9% 14.9% 14.9 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.3 15.5
9-7 10.6% 10.9% 10.9% 15.2 0.0 0.8 0.3 9.5
8-8 5.0% 9.2% 9.2% 15.7 0.1 0.3 4.5
7-9 1.7% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 0.1 1.6
6-10 0.5% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-11 0.1% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 19.5% 19.5% 0.0% 14.2 80.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 12.2 11.5 59.0 28.2 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%