Xavier
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.1 #92
Expected Predictive Rating +7.7 #78
Pace 73.4 #70
Improvement +0.1 #182

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #105 C+ D A+ F D
Defense #79 C A- B- B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #338 1.23 #100 -3.0 #285
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #133 0.76 #163 +1.0 #123
Three Pointers 46% #86 1.09 #85 +4.2 #50
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #121 +2.1 #121
Freethrows 13.8 #332 72% #209 10.0 #325
Second Chance 27.5% #267 0.93 #309 0.26 #301
Turnovers 11.4% #1
Total Offense +2.5 #105

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #135 1.18 #206 -1.5 #231
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #52 0.75 #169 -1.7 #297
Three Pointers 34% #335 0.99 #154 +3.7 #51
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #167 +0.5 #167
Freethrows 15.9 #116 70% #69 11.1 #281
Second Chance 26.2% #47 0.91 #39 0.24 #25
Turnovers 17.9% #95
Total Defense +3.6 #79

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.7% #287 -0.9% #96
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.9% #87 -0.1% #181
Possession Length 15.6 #42 17.6 #229
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #25 0.14 #74
Improvement +0.4 #156 -0.3 #204

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 4.0% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.1% 3.5% 0.8%
Average Seed 10.4 10.4 10.7
.500 or above 34.2% 47.6% 21.2%
.500 or above in Conference 7.8% 12.9% 3.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 13.8% 6.9% 20.5%
First Four1.2% 2.0% 0.5%
First Round1.7% 2.8% 0.7%
Second Round0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Butler (Home) - 49.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 10
Quad 24 - 66 - 16
Quad 34 - 110 - 17
Quad 45 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 129 Marist W 66 - 62 76% -3  1 - 0 +3 +0 F A+ F +3 C- F A+
 Thu, Nov 6 295 Le Moyne W 74 - 69 93% +4  2 - 0 -6 -4 B F C- -2 F A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 10 55 Santa Clara L 68 - 87 47% -15  2 - 1 -12 -5 F C+ B+ -7 C- D C
 Fri, Nov 14 22 @Iowa L 62 - 81 12% -10  2 - 2 -0 -2 F D+ A+ +2 D- A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 244 Old Dominion W 99 - 69 90% +20  3 - 2 +22 +17 A- A+ B+ +3 B- B- B
 Fri, Nov 21 23 Georgia L 77 - 78 18% -4  3 - 3 +15 +8 C C+ A+ +7 A A+ B-
 Sun, Nov 23 59 West Virginia W 78 - 68 38% +3  4 - 3 +19 +13 A+ F A- +7 A+ A C+
 Fri, Nov 28 182 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 88 - 67 84% +12  5 - 3 +16 +10 B F A+ +5 B A+ F
 Mon, Dec 1 360 St. Francis (PA) W 96 - 74 98% +13  6 - 3 +4 +6 D+ D- A+ -5 D C C
 Fri, Dec 5 56 Cincinnati W 79 - 74 47% +4  7 - 3 +12 +11 A- F A+ +1 A+ F F
 Fri, Dec 12 192 Missouri St. W 75 - 57 85% +7  8 - 3 +13 +8 B+ D- A+ +7 B+ A+ A
 Wed, Dec 17 43 Creighton L 57 - 98 38% -21  8 - 4 0 - 1 -32 -16 D- F F -14 F A B+
 Sat, Dec 20 100 @Georgetown W 80 - 77 42% -2  9 - 4 1 - 1 +11 +5 B F D +6 C A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 31 4 Connecticut L 67 - 90 13% -18  9 - 5 1 - 2 -5 +2 B+ F A -6 D B B+
 Sat, Jan 3 98 @DePaul L 77 - 86 42% -3  9 - 6 1 - 3 -1 +13 A+ C- A+ -14 F C- D
 Wed, Jan 7 106 @Marquette L 65 - 66 45% -5  9 - 7 1 - 4 +6 -3 C F F +10 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 68 Providence W 97 - 84 53% +11  10 - 7 2 - 4 +18 +11 A F A+ +6 A A+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 58 Butler L 79 - 80 49%
 Wed, Jan 21 43 @Creighton L 72 - 81 20%
 Sat, Jan 24 15 St. John's L 75 - 83 22%
 Wed, Jan 28 49 @Seton Hall L 66 - 74 23%
 Sat, Jan 31 98 DePaul W 74 - 70 64%
 Tue, Feb 3 4 @Connecticut L 63 - 81 5%
 Mon, Feb 9 15 @St. John's L 72 - 86 9%
 Sat, Feb 14 106 Marquette W 79 - 74 66%
 Tue, Feb 17 34 Villanova L 69 - 74 32%
 Sat, Feb 21 58 @Butler L 76 - 82 29%
 Tue, Feb 24 68 @Providence L 82 - 87 32%
 Sat, Feb 28 100 Georgetown W 79 - 75 64%
 Tue, Mar 3 49 Seton Hall L 69 - 71 44%
 Sat, Mar 7 34 @Villanova L 66 - 77 16%
Totals 15 - 16 7 - 13 +6 +2 C+ D A+ +4 C A- B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.3 5.1 2.1 0.2 0.0 12.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 6.7 7.8 2.7 0.2 18.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 8.2 9.6 3.1 0.2 22.5 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 6.7 9.1 2.7 0.2 19.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 4.3 5.9 1.8 0.2 12.9 10th
11th 0.5 2.0 2.6 1.0 0.1 6.1 11th
Total 0.5 2.8 8.1 15.0 20.6 19.9 15.6 9.7 5.1 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 89.3% 3.6% 85.7% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.9%
12-8 0.6% 54.2% 2.5% 51.7% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 53.0%
11-9 2.0% 38.9% 2.8% 36.1% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.2 37.1%
10-10 5.1% 15.5% 1.7% 13.9% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.0 4.3 14.1%
9-11 9.7% 3.1% 1.0% 2.2% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 9.4 2.2%
8-12 15.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 15.5 0.2%
7-13 19.9% 0.2% 0.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 19.9
6-14 20.6% 0.1% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 20.6
5-15 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 15.0
4-16 8.1% 8.1
3-17 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 2.8
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.5% 0.4% 2.1% 10.4 97.5 2.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%