Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
4 Duke 99.7%   1   7 - 0 0 - 0 27 - 4 16 - 4 +18.5      +10.2 7 +8.3 12 73.7 79 +27.1 1 0.0 1
26 Florida St. 82.4%   8   5 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 9 13 - 7 +13.4      +5.9 35 +7.5 24 72.1 102 +14.4 27 0.0 1
27 Virginia Tech 72.6%   9   5 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 10 13 - 7 +13.0      +5.9 34 +7.1 28 65.0 282 +7.8 77 0.0 1
36 Louisville 70.8%   9   5 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 11 12 - 8 +11.5      +3.1 95 +8.4 11 71.0 134 +12.4 42 0.0 1
39 Virginia 53.0%   10   5 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 9 +10.7      +1.8 119 +9.0 6 54.2 358 +7.6 80 0.0 1
43 North Carolina 49.1%   11   4 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 13 11 - 9 +10.1      +8.8 12 +1.3 127 76.7 41 +7.8 79 0.0 1
45 Clemson 44.7%   5 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 13 11 - 9 +9.9      +4.1 69 +5.7 43 62.2 331 +6.3 90 0.0 1
63 Notre Dame 17.8%   2 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 14 10 - 10 +7.6      +5.1 52 +2.5 97 66.9 240 -1.0 192 0.0 1
64 North Carolina St. 29.2%   5 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 13 9 - 11 +7.5      +5.4 44 +2.1 102 68.2 212 +9.9 63 0.0 1
78 Syracuse 13.1%   3 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 16 9 - 11 +6.7      +7.4 21 -0.7 194 70.1 160 +2.6 136 0.0 1
83 Georgia Tech 14.5%   5 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 15 9 - 11 +6.3      +2.5 103 +3.8 72 67.9 222 +4.7 112 0.0 1
85 Wake Forest 14.1%   6 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 14 8 - 12 +6.2      +3.2 89 +3.0 87 73.2 86 +10.5 59 0.0 1
104 Miami (FL) 5.4%   4 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 17 7 - 13 +4.4      +4.0 71 +0.3 158 69.7 169 +3.9 123 0.0 1
134 Boston College 1.0%   4 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 18 6 - 14 +2.3      +0.9 139 +1.4 118 64.2 299 +0.4 169 0.0 1
214 Pittsburgh 0.0%   2 - 4 0 - 0 8 - 23 4 - 16 -2.2      -2.1 237 -0.2 179 66.1 259 -6.9 274 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Duke 2.0 57.0 19.1 10.7 6.3 2.8 1.6 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Florida St. 4.2 17.0 18.4 15.3 12.3 10.4 7.9 5.3 3.8 3.2 2.2 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.0
Virginia Tech 4.0 16.5 19.4 17.9 12.7 9.5 6.6 6.1 3.6 3.1 2.1 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1
Louisville 5.0 9.7 14.8 14.2 12.9 11.2 8.5 7.1 6.2 4.8 4.2 2.7 1.9 1.1 0.7 0.1
Virginia 6.0 6.4 9.4 10.1 10.1 11.4 11.5 10.8 7.9 6.5 5.2 4.6 3.3 1.4 1.0 0.4
North Carolina 6.6 4.5 8.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 10.2 9.4 8.7 7.5 5.9 5.6 4.2 3.6 1.6 0.7
Clemson 6.7 4.1 6.4 8.3 10.3 11.3 9.8 10.2 9.8 7.8 6.8 5.8 4.2 3.1 1.6 0.6
Notre Dame 7.7 3.1 5.0 5.4 8.4 8.7 9.5 9.0 8.8 8.7 7.4 7.6 7.7 4.9 4.3 1.5
North Carolina St. 8.3 1.5 4.0 5.3 5.9 7.7 8.6 8.4 8.5 9.9 9.3 8.4 8.7 6.7 5.3 1.8
Syracuse 8.6 1.3 3.1 4.2 5.7 6.6 8.1 8.5 10.1 10.2 9.5 10.0 8.4 7.6 5.2 1.8
Georgia Tech 9.0 1.4 2.9 3.4 4.8 5.8 6.8 8.6 9.3 10.1 10.4 9.1 9.1 8.4 7.0 2.8
Wake Forest 9.5 0.5 1.9 2.8 3.5 5.0 6.1 7.3 9.7 10.5 10.3 11.5 10.5 9.7 8.5 2.3
Miami (FL) 10.7 0.2 1.0 1.7 2.1 2.9 4.4 5.2 6.9 8.2 8.9 10.6 12.2 15.0 13.7 7.0
Boston College 11.5 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.1 2.1 2.5 3.3 4.7 6.7 8.6 10.7 12.6 17.3 17.6 11.2
Pittsburgh 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.5 2.4 3.8 6.8 10.9 21.9 50.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Duke 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.7 6.7 9.8 14.1 16.9 16.7 14.0 10.2 4.0
Florida St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.9 2.4 4.3 7.4 9.4 11.8 14.3 12.2 13.0 9.4 6.6 3.9 1.5 0.3
Virginia Tech 13 - 7 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.1 2.8 4.1 6.7 9.2 11.7 13.4 14.4 13.0 10.1 7.4 3.9 1.3 0.3
Louisville 12 - 8 0.2 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.6 5.6 6.7 9.1 11.4 13.0 12.8 12.2 10.5 7.4 4.0 1.7 0.6 0.1
Virginia 11 - 9 0.1 0.1 0.8 1.2 2.2 5.0 6.8 9.7 12.6 14.4 13.0 10.8 9.1 6.4 4.2 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0
North Carolina 11 - 9 0.2 0.3 1.7 1.8 4.1 6.3 7.9 10.0 12.1 13.3 12.6 10.6 7.7 5.7 3.3 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0
Clemson 11 - 9 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.9 6.4 8.8 11.8 12.2 13.8 13.0 11.0 7.1 4.2 2.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Notre Dame 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.5 6.3 8.9 11.4 10.5 12.0 11.6 10.9 7.8 5.5 3.1 2.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1
North Carolina St. 9 - 11 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.6 2.7 5.9 8.3 9.6 12.0 12.4 12.6 10.2 8.5 6.2 4.5 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.1
Syracuse 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 3.1 5.6 9.0 10.7 12.8 12.6 12.9 10.6 7.5 6.0 4.2 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 9 - 11 0.1 0.1 0.9 2.5 4.7 6.1 9.6 11.5 13.1 12.6 12.2 9.6 6.7 4.6 2.6 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.0
Wake Forest 8 - 12 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.5 8.3 11.2 13.0 13.4 13.7 11.0 8.2 6.1 3.5 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.1
Miami (FL) 7 - 13 0.2 1.0 2.7 6.0 9.0 11.2 13.0 13.6 11.6 11.1 8.1 5.5 3.2 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.1
Boston College 6 - 14 0.2 1.9 4.7 8.2 10.7 14.1 14.3 14.0 10.8 8.7 5.1 3.3 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0
Pittsburgh 4 - 16 4.6 12.4 17.7 19.1 15.6 11.5 8.1 5.8 2.8 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 57.0% 43.7 10.9 2.0 0.3 0.1
Florida St. 17.0% 10.1 5.5 1.0 0.3 0.1
Virginia Tech 16.5% 10.2 4.9 1.1 0.3 0.0
Louisville 9.7% 5.0 3.4 1.0 0.1 0.1
Virginia 6.4% 3.5 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.1
North Carolina 4.5% 2.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.1
Clemson 4.1% 1.7 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.1
Notre Dame 3.1% 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
North Carolina St. 1.5% 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1
Syracuse 1.3% 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.0
Georgia Tech 1.4% 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0
Wake Forest 0.5% 0.3 0.2 0.0
Miami (FL) 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.0
Boston College 0.1% 0.1
Pittsburgh


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 99.7% 39.6% 60.1% 1   36.1 25.8 15.2 8.7 6.7 2.9 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.3 99.5%
Florida St. 82.4% 13.6% 68.8% 8   4.0 5.0 7.9 7.8 8.8 9.4 9.7 8.5 7.2 6.2 5.8 2.0 0.1 17.6 79.6%
Virginia Tech 72.6% 12.8% 59.8% 9   1.8 2.7 4.4 6.8 6.7 8.4 8.0 8.2 8.8 7.7 6.7 2.4 0.1 0.0 27.4 68.6%
Louisville 70.8% 9.0% 61.8% 9   1.0 2.5 4.2 5.3 6.3 8.4 8.4 9.9 9.2 7.0 6.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 29.2 67.9%
Virginia 53.0% 6.6% 46.3% 10   0.3 1.0 1.5 3.3 3.9 5.4 6.1 6.9 7.9 8.0 6.2 2.4 0.2 47.0 49.6%
North Carolina 49.1% 5.2% 43.9% 11   0.5 0.7 1.6 2.3 3.4 4.5 6.3 6.3 7.5 6.1 7.2 2.4 0.3 50.9 46.3%
Clemson 44.7% 4.3% 40.4% 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.7 2.2 3.3 5.2 5.9 6.8 7.6 7.0 3.0 0.3 0.0 55.3 42.2%
Notre Dame 17.8% 2.5% 15.3% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.1 2.0 2.5 2.3 3.5 3.2 1.3 0.1 82.2 15.7%
North Carolina St. 29.2% 1.7% 27.6% 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.0 1.7 3.4 3.7 4.5 4.6 6.4 2.2 0.1 70.8 28.0%
Syracuse 13.1% 1.5% 11.6% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 1.1 1.6 2.2 2.1 3.4 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 86.9 11.8%
Georgia Tech 14.5% 1.5% 13.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.9 1.9 2.5 3.1 1.8 0.1 85.5 13.2%
Wake Forest 14.1% 1.1% 13.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 2.2 2.1 2.6 3.5 1.7 0.1 86.0 13.1%
Miami (FL) 5.4% 0.4% 5.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.9 0.6 0.1 94.6 5.1%
Boston College 1.0% 0.2% 0.8% 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.0 0.8%
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Duke 99.7% 0.2% 99.6% 91.1% 63.9% 39.8% 22.5% 12.4% 6.8%
Florida St. 82.4% 4.9% 79.9% 53.0% 26.6% 12.0% 5.3% 2.0% 0.8%
Virginia Tech 72.6% 5.7% 70.3% 45.0% 21.5% 9.6% 3.9% 1.9% 0.9%
Louisville 70.8% 5.4% 68.0% 38.9% 15.2% 6.8% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3%
Virginia 53.0% 6.0% 50.0% 28.4% 10.7% 4.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
North Carolina 49.1% 6.2% 46.2% 25.9% 9.5% 3.5% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Clemson 44.7% 6.6% 41.3% 20.2% 6.6% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Notre Dame 17.8% 2.7% 16.6% 7.9% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
North Carolina St. 29.2% 5.5% 26.1% 11.6% 3.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Syracuse 13.1% 2.7% 11.8% 5.5% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 14.5% 3.6% 12.6% 5.6% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Wake Forest 14.1% 3.5% 12.3% 5.3% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (FL) 5.4% 1.6% 4.4% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 1.0% 0.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 5.7 0.1 1.9 11.9 30.6 32.9 17.9 4.5 0.3
1st Round 100.0% 5.4 0.3 3.1 16.8 33.9 30.7 12.7 2.4 0.2
2nd Round 99.8% 3.4 0.2 3.0 17.5 34.1 29.1 13.2 2.8 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 91.0% 1.7 9.0 36.5 37.6 14.3 2.3 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 63.9% 0.8 36.1 48.0 14.3 1.6 0.1
Final Four 35.5% 0.4 64.5 32.0 3.4 0.1
Final Game 18.0% 0.2 82.0 17.5 0.6
Champion 9.3% 0.1 90.7 9.3