Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 Duke 100.0%   1   21 - 1 10 - 0 +23.6      +11.8 6 +11.8 4 66.5 241 +29.5 3 +27.5 1
16 Louisville 98.7%   5   16 - 6 6 - 4 +17.9      +10.2 16 +7.6 22 73.9 56 +15.5 32 +13.5 5
22 Virginia 99.7%   4   19 - 3 8 - 2 +16.5      +9.5 23 +7.0 28 64.3 296 +19.2 15 +20.1 3
23 North Carolina St. 98.6%   7   17 - 6 8 - 2 +16.5      +10.1 18 +6.4 40 71.4 104 +14.3 36 +17.6 4
29 North Carolina 97.3%   7   18 - 4 6 - 3 +15.3      +10.1 17 +5.2 53 71.5 103 +17.4 24 +13.1 6
37 Clemson 95.3%   8   19 - 4 9 - 1 +14.0      +4.8 69 +9.2 13 62.3 339 +17.1 26 +20.5 2
39 SMU 78.0%   10   15 - 7 4 - 5 +13.5      +9.7 21 +3.8 73 71.7 99 +13.7 38 +12.0 7
40 Miami (FL) 67.8%   10   17 - 5 6 - 3 +12.6      +7.2 46 +5.4 46 70.9 121 +12.7 45 +11.3 9
58 Virginia Tech 24.1%   16 - 7 5 - 5 +9.3      +4.5 75 +4.7 63 69.1 172 +11.6 52 +10.6 10
65 California 28.3%   16 - 6 5 - 5 +8.6      +4.3 76 +4.3 65 68.5 184 +12.6 46 +11.9 8
69 Syracuse 2.5%   13 - 10 4 - 6 +8.2      +4.6 73 +3.7 77 69.7 156 +6.9 79 +6.2 13
75 Wake Forest 2.1%   11 - 11 2 - 7 +7.8      +4.0 80 +3.8 74 71.8 96 +7.1 78 +5.1 14
81 Notre Dame 0.2%   11 - 12 2 - 8 +6.8      +3.2 95 +3.6 78 64.1 299 +6.2 84 +3.2 16
82 Stanford 6.5%   14 - 9 3 - 7 +6.7      +3.3 93 +3.4 80 68.3 192 +8.8 67 +7.0 12
94 Pittsburgh 0.0%   9 - 14 2 - 8 +5.8      +3.4 90 +2.4 104 62.5 335 +2.5 124 +2.6 17
100 Florida St. 0.0%   10 - 12 3 - 6 +4.8      +2.8 100 +1.9 113 77.2 18 +4.0 102 +7.6 11
113 Georgia Tech 0.0%   11 - 12 2 - 8 +3.2      -0.1 164 +3.3 84 75.7 31 +1.0 142 +1.7 18
125 Boston College 0.0%   9 - 13 2 - 7 +2.2      -3.0 250 +5.2 49 66.0 251 -0.7 177 +3.9 15


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Mon, Feb 2 29 North Carolina 87 69 Syracuse 77   
Tue, Feb 3 23 North Carolina St. 84 39 SMU 83   
Tue, Feb 3 94 Pittsburgh 47 22 Virginia 67   
Tue, Feb 3 125 Boston College 49 3 Duke 67   
Wed, Feb 4 37 Clemson 66 82 Stanford 64   
Wed, Feb 4 16 Louisville 76 81 Notre Dame 65   
Wed, Feb 4 65 California 90 113 Georgia Tech 85   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Feb 7 3 Duke 79 29 North Carolina 74 70%   
Sat, Feb 7 65 California 67 37 Clemson 69 59%   
Sat, Feb 7 23 North Carolina St. 83 58 Virginia Tech 72 83%   
Sat, Feb 7 69 Syracuse 68 22 Virginia 79 85%   
Sat, Feb 7 100 Florida St. 73 81 Notre Dame 78 69%   
Sat, Feb 7 16 Louisville 84 75 Wake Forest 76 75%   
Sat, Feb 7 94 Pittsburgh 73 39 SMU 78 68%   
Sat, Feb 7 113 Georgia Tech 72 82 Stanford 79 73%   
Sat, Feb 7 125 Boston College 67 40 Miami (FL) 74 76%   
Mon, Feb 9 16 Louisville 84 23 North Carolina St. 79 66%   
Tue, Feb 10 40 Miami (FL) 81 29 North Carolina 80 51%   
Tue, Feb 10 81 Notre Dame 71 39 SMU 81 82%   
Tue, Feb 10 100 Florida St. 73 22 Virginia 82 80%   
Tue, Feb 10 3 Duke 77 94 Pittsburgh 63 91%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Duke 1.1 94.4 4.1 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Louisville 5.3 0.1 5.3 10.5 17.7 22.5 19.6 12.9 7.6 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Virginia 2.7 7.0 46.3 25.7 14.1 4.5 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
North Carolina St. 3.5 3.6 25.8 24.0 24.4 12.7 5.9 2.3 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
North Carolina 6.1 0.3 2.8 6.2 11.9 18.3 19.6 17.6 12.7 6.7 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.1
Clemson 2.8 7.0 43.5 27.5 14.0 5.3 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
SMU 7.1 0.3 2.0 6.4 13.0 18.0 18.8 17.5 12.6 6.3 2.8 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Miami (FL) 6.0 0.1 3.3 7.1 12.5 18.0 19.3 16.8 12.7 6.6 2.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 9.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.5 3.7 7.6 14.3 22.3 26.6 13.1 5.9 3.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
California 8.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.7 6.0 11.2 16.1 20.2 20.7 11.6 5.7 2.5 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Syracuse 11.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.9 8.3 14.3 20.0 18.3 14.6 9.5 5.5 2.5 0.7 0.2
Wake Forest 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.8 5.8 10.2 14.1 13.6 13.4 11.8 10.2 7.8 5.6 3.4
Notre Dame 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 5.3 11.1 13.1 15.1 15.5 13.4 10.8 7.6 5.5
Stanford 12.2 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.5 6.9 11.7 17.7 16.3 14.4 10.5 8.1 5.1 2.9 1.3
Pittsburgh 14.9 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 5.2 7.6 10.2 11.9 15.1 17.7 16.9 12.1
Florida St. 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.4 8.4 12.7 14.4 15.1 13.4 11.4 8.5 5.6 2.7
Georgia Tech 15.7 0.0 0.4 1.0 2.7 4.7 7.2 10.3 13.7 17.4 21.6 21.0
Boston College 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.0 4.5 6.5 8.8 10.9 14.3 16.7 18.6 16.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Duke 17 - 1 28 - 3 0.1 0.6 2.8 10.7 25.0 36.1 24.8
Louisville 11 - 7 22 - 9 0.0 0.2 1.5 6.6 17.1 26.9 26.7 16.3 4.8
Virginia 14 - 4 25 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.2 10.9 24.5 32.8 23.7 4.2
North Carolina St. 13 - 5 22 - 9 0.0 0.5 2.7 10.3 22.5 29.4 22.4 10.3 2.0
North Carolina 11 - 7 23 - 8 0.1 1.0 5.1 13.7 22.6 25.9 19.8 9.0 2.6 0.2
Clemson 14 - 4 24 - 7 0.0 0.6 4.2 13.3 25.1 29.7 19.9 6.5 0.7
SMU 10 - 8 21 - 10 0.2 1.1 4.1 11.0 19.5 25.3 22.5 13.0 3.4
Miami (FL) 11 - 7 22 - 9 0.0 0.7 4.4 12.6 22.9 26.1 19.8 10.2 2.8 0.4
Virginia Tech 8 - 10 19 - 12 0.7 5.9 19.8 32.6 25.1 11.9 3.5 0.5 0.0
California 9 - 9 20 - 10 0.4 2.7 9.0 19.1 25.0 23.1 14.1 5.7 1.0
Syracuse 7 - 11 16 - 15 2.7 13.1 27.8 28.8 18.6 7.2 1.6 0.2 0.0
Wake Forest 6 - 12 15 - 16 0.6 4.2 11.6 20.0 23.8 21.3 12.3 5.0 1.2 0.1
Notre Dame 6 - 12 15 - 16 0.8 5.4 15.5 27.2 27.3 16.8 5.8 1.1 0.1
Stanford 6 - 12 17 - 14 1.1 6.7 16.9 26.5 25.8 15.5 5.9 1.5 0.1
Pittsburgh 5 - 13 12 - 19 3.8 15.3 26.3 27.1 18.0 7.4 2.0 0.2
Florida St. 6 - 12 13 - 18 2.6 12.8 23.4 26.5 19.6 10.2 3.8 1.0 0.2 0.0
Georgia Tech 4 - 14 13 - 18 7.2 21.8 29.9 24.8 11.8 3.7 0.7 0.1
Boston College 5 - 13 12 - 19 5.5 17.8 27.1 24.6 15.8 6.4 2.2 0.5 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 94.4% 84.8 7.8 1.6 0.2 0.0
Louisville 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Virginia 7.0% 1.9 3.8 1.2 0.1 0.0
North Carolina St. 3.6% 0.8 1.9 0.9 0.1 0.0
North Carolina 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Clemson 7.0% 2.2 3.5 1.2 0.2
SMU
Miami (FL) 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Virginia Tech
California 0.0% 0.0
Syracuse
Wake Forest
Notre Dame
Stanford
Pittsburgh
Florida St.
Georgia Tech
Boston College


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 100.0% 51.6% 48.4% 1   71.0 27.2 1.8 0.1 100.0%
Louisville 98.7% 11.5% 87.2% 5   0.6 2.1 8.7 15.2 19.5 18.9 15.4 10.1 5.3 2.4 0.6 0.0 1.3 98.5%
Virginia 99.7% 10.9% 88.9% 4   0.4 2.5 11.4 21.2 22.8 21.0 12.5 5.5 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.3 99.7%
North Carolina St. 98.6% 10.0% 88.6% 7   0.2 0.8 3.4 9.2 14.1 20.7 21.2 16.3 8.9 3.3 0.5 1.4 98.4%
North Carolina 97.3% 5.0% 92.3% 7   0.1 0.3 2.7 6.7 13.9 19.9 19.6 16.6 11.0 5.0 1.7 2.8 97.1%
Clemson 95.3% 5.5% 89.8% 8   0.0 0.8 2.6 7.5 14.6 22.0 21.2 16.3 8.2 2.3 0.0 4.7 95.0%
SMU 78.0% 2.5% 75.4% 10   0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 3.9 7.5 14.1 19.3 20.1 10.6 0.1 22.0 77.4%
Miami (FL) 67.8% 2.3% 65.6% 10   0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 4.5 10.6 15.8 19.5 14.5 0.1 32.2 67.1%
Virginia Tech 24.1% 0.3% 23.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.9 7.5 11.9 0.3 75.9 23.9%
California 28.3% 0.3% 28.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.2 8.8 14.3 0.2 71.7 28.1%
Syracuse 2.5% 0.1% 2.3% 0.1 0.6 1.7 0.1 97.5 2.3%
Wake Forest 2.1% 0.1% 2.0% 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.4 0.1 97.9 2.0%
Notre Dame 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 99.8 0.2%
Stanford 6.5% 0.1% 6.4% 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.7 3.9 0.2 93.5 6.4%
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Florida St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 8.0 0.1 3.6 24.1 45.3 23.2 3.6 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 7.7 0.4 7.1 34.5 43.8 13.1 1.2 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 5.2 0.0 0.8 5.7 20.2 35.2 27.9 9.0 1.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 97.8% 2.3 2.2 18.8 37.3 29.8 10.0 1.7 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 79.0% 1.1 21.0 51.1 23.4 4.2 0.3 0.0
Final Four 49.3% 0.6 50.8 43.2 5.9 0.1
Final Game 26.8% 0.3 73.2 25.9 0.9
Champion 13.7% 0.1 86.3 13.7

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.7% 81.2% 57.5% 35.9% 21.0% 11.8%
Louisville 98.7% 0.6% 98.6% 77.5% 36.7% 15.2% 6.2% 2.4% 0.7%
Virginia 99.7% 0.1% 99.7% 79.1% 36.2% 12.5% 4.4% 1.4% 0.5%
North Carolina St. 98.6% 0.5% 98.4% 69.0% 26.8% 10.2% 3.8% 1.4% 0.4%
North Carolina 97.3% 1.6% 96.6% 63.0% 22.0% 7.1% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Clemson 95.3% 2.1% 94.2% 51.7% 14.0% 4.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
SMU 78.0% 10.3% 73.3% 36.0% 8.2% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Miami (FL) 67.8% 13.9% 61.3% 26.9% 5.5% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 24.1% 11.9% 17.0% 5.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California 28.3% 14.1% 19.8% 5.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Syracuse 2.5% 1.6% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wake Forest 2.1% 1.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre Dame 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 6.5% 4.0% 3.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%