Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
6 Duke 97.7%   2   5 - 1 0 - 0 25 - 6 16 - 4 +17.9      +9.4 12 +8.5 10 66.7 250 +16.1 24 0.0 1
12 North Carolina 92.4%   4   5 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 9 14 - 6 +15.6      +9.6 11 +6.0 33 72.2 107 +14.6 29 0.0 1
35 Clemson 79.7%   6   6 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 9 12 - 8 +11.8      +7.1 25 +4.8 51 69.6 177 +22.8 3 0.0 1
36 Miami (FL) 68.5%   9   5 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 9 12 - 8 +11.7      +9.6 10 +2.1 117 71.7 122 +17.0 20 0.0 1
44 Virginia 54.6%   11   5 - 1 0 - 0 21 - 10 12 - 8 +10.5      +2.0 114 +8.5 11 57.1 360 +14.3 31 0.0 1
53 Pittsburgh 29.4%   5 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 12 11 - 9 +9.7      +5.0 54 +4.7 52 72.8 88 +3.8 121 0.0 1
62 Virginia Tech 33.6%   5 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 13 11 - 9 +8.6      +6.0 41 +2.6 103 68.9 192 +10.3 56 0.0 1
65 Florida St. 34.9%   4 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 12 10 - 10 +8.1      +4.5 67 +3.6 80 74.2 57 +14.9 27 0.0 1
71 North Carolina St. 16.0%   4 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 14 9 - 11 +7.3      +4.3 70 +3.0 92 72.3 105 +6.1 96 0.0 1
75 Syracuse 16.6%   4 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 14 9 - 11 +6.8      +3.0 86 +3.8 76 74.7 49 +9.4 62 0.0 1
78 Wake Forest 9.2%   3 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 15 9 - 11 +6.7      +6.3 33 +0.4 154 71.5 128 +0.3 166 0.0 1
105 Boston College 4.2%   4 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 16 8 - 12 +4.1      +2.1 111 +2.1 116 69.1 185 +5.1 107 0.0 1
118 Georgia Tech 3.8%   3 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 17 7 - 13 +3.3      +1.1 151 +2.2 114 70.9 146 +5.3 106 0.0 1
155 Louisville 0.6%   3 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 20 5 - 15 +0.5      +1.8 125 -1.3 208 67.2 232 -3.8 235 0.0 1
159 Notre Dame 0.6%   3 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 20 5 - 15 +0.3      -0.9 198 +1.2 137 63.3 323 +1.2 156 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Duke 1.9 56.5 21.4 10.2 5.5 2.5 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Carolina 3.3 25.0 23.5 16.0 11.1 7.1 6.0 4.3 2.7 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Clemson 5.1 8.7 13.7 13.8 12.8 11.4 9.5 8.0 6.7 5.5 3.8 2.5 1.7 1.0 0.8 0.2
Miami (FL) 5.1 9.2 14.1 14.1 12.8 11.2 8.8 8.0 6.4 4.9 4.1 2.7 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.2
Virginia 5.2 8.8 12.7 14.2 13.0 11.7 9.9 7.3 6.5 5.1 3.8 2.9 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.3
Pittsburgh 6.5 4.3 6.7 9.7 10.6 10.7 11.0 10.1 10.3 8.2 6.6 4.7 3.3 2.1 1.1 0.7
Virginia Tech 6.9 2.8 5.7 8.7 10.2 11.2 10.0 10.0 9.6 8.9 7.2 5.7 4.5 3.1 1.7 0.6
Florida St. 7.7 2.3 4.9 7.4 6.9 8.4 8.8 10.1 9.8 8.5 8.7 7.6 6.6 4.7 3.4 2.0
North Carolina St. 8.2 1.4 3.6 4.8 6.8 8.2 8.8 8.9 9.2 9.6 9.6 8.5 8.3 6.2 4.3 1.9
Syracuse 8.6 0.8 2.4 4.4 6.0 7.0 8.3 8.9 10.1 10.4 10.3 9.5 8.1 6.8 4.4 2.6
Wake Forest 8.8 1.2 2.1 3.5 5.1 6.1 7.7 8.7 10.0 10.5 10.5 10.0 9.2 7.7 5.1 2.5
Boston College 10.0 0.4 1.3 2.5 2.9 4.5 5.4 7.2 7.8 9.6 10.1 10.2 12.0 10.9 8.8 6.6
Georgia Tech 11.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.7 3.2 4.1 5.9 8.0 9.8 12.3 13.0 14.1 13.7 9.9
Louisville 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.7 1.0 1.8 2.9 4.1 5.6 8.2 12.0 17.1 22.3 24.0
Notre Dame 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.8 2.3 4.7 5.4 7.4 11.5 15.4 21.6 27.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Duke 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.6 3.2 5.7 9.5 13.4 17.1 17.2 16.7 10.1 4.0
North Carolina 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.4 2.5 4.5 6.6 9.5 11.5 14.0 14.8 13.2 11.0 6.7 2.8 0.7
Clemson 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.7 5.0 7.4 8.9 11.4 13.1 13.1 12.7 9.8 6.3 3.8 1.9 0.7 0.0
Miami (FL) 12 - 8 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.2 5.1 6.7 8.9 12.0 12.3 13.3 12.2 9.9 6.8 3.9 2.2 0.7 0.1
Virginia 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 3.3 4.9 7.3 8.7 11.7 13.2 12.6 11.8 9.2 7.3 4.6 2.1 0.6 0.1
Pittsburgh 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.8 5.8 8.1 10.5 13.4 12.6 12.9 10.7 8.5 5.6 3.2 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Virginia Tech 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.4 2.2 4.5 6.4 8.9 11.2 13.0 12.6 12.4 10.6 7.7 4.8 2.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Florida St. 10 - 10 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.5 4.3 6.4 8.1 11.1 11.6 12.6 11.2 9.2 7.7 6.0 3.6 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0
North Carolina St. 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.5 5.8 7.5 10.4 10.9 12.2 12.2 10.6 9.3 6.2 4.4 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Syracuse 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 3.4 5.7 8.0 11.1 12.4 13.6 11.3 10.9 8.2 6.2 3.5 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Wake Forest 9 - 11 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.8 7.0 9.1 11.0 12.9 13.2 12.4 9.1 7.8 5.1 3.0 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Boston College 8 - 12 0.1 0.8 2.2 4.2 7.3 9.3 11.7 12.4 12.9 11.1 9.6 7.1 5.3 3.0 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 7 - 13 0.2 1.4 4.5 6.7 10.0 13.1 13.1 13.6 12.8 8.8 6.8 4.1 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisville 5 - 15 1.4 4.9 9.4 13.7 15.3 16.0 13.5 10.0 6.7 4.6 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Notre Dame 5 - 15 1.7 6.0 10.5 13.9 16.0 14.4 12.4 9.0 6.8 4.8 2.4 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 56.5% 44.4 9.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
North Carolina 25.0% 16.4 6.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Clemson 8.7% 4.8 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Miami (FL) 9.2% 5.3 2.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia 8.8% 4.8 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0
Pittsburgh 4.3% 2.0 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
Virginia Tech 2.8% 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Florida St. 2.3% 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
North Carolina St. 1.4% 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Syracuse 0.8% 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wake Forest 1.2% 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Boston College 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Louisville 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Notre Dame 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 97.7% 28.6% 69.1% 2   20.3 21.4 14.9 12.3 9.1 6.5 4.8 3.5 2.1 1.6 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 96.8%
North Carolina 92.4% 18.4% 74.0% 4   9.7 13.0 14.5 13.0 11.1 8.5 7.6 5.2 4.0 3.1 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.6 90.6%
Clemson 79.7% 9.3% 70.4% 6   1.9 4.4 7.3 8.3 9.5 10.9 8.2 8.2 8.4 7.0 4.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 20.3 77.6%
Miami (FL) 68.5% 9.5% 59.1% 9   1.4 2.6 4.1 4.8 6.9 7.7 8.5 8.6 7.8 8.9 6.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.5 65.2%
Virginia 54.6% 6.6% 48.0% 11   0.5 1.0 2.2 3.1 4.8 5.2 6.0 6.9 7.6 8.9 7.4 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 45.4 51.4%
Pittsburgh 29.4% 5.8% 23.6% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 1.9 2.6 3.8 4.1 6.5 5.9 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 70.6 25.1%
Virginia Tech 33.6% 4.5% 29.1% 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.2 2.9 4.9 5.1 6.9 6.9 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 66.4 30.5%
Florida St. 34.9% 4.5% 30.4% 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.3 2.4 2.4 3.3 4.3 5.5 6.5 6.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 65.1 31.8%
North Carolina St. 16.0% 3.2% 12.8% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.7 2.8 3.3 3.5 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 84.0 13.3%
Syracuse 16.6% 3.1% 13.5% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.6 3.5 3.8 1.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 83.4 13.9%
Wake Forest 9.2% 3.0% 6.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.9 2.1 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 90.8 6.5%
Boston College 4.2% 1.4% 2.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 95.8 2.8%
Georgia Tech 3.8% 1.1% 2.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 96.2 2.8%
Louisville 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.4 0.0%
Notre Dame 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 99.4 0.1%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 97.7% 1.1% 97.2% 84.1% 56.2% 33.4% 18.8% 10.7% 5.7%
North Carolina 92.4% 2.7% 91.1% 72.8% 42.1% 21.8% 10.8% 5.0% 2.7%
Clemson 79.7% 6.0% 76.2% 47.4% 21.1% 8.3% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4%
Miami (FL) 68.5% 6.9% 65.0% 40.6% 17.3% 7.8% 3.2% 1.4% 0.6%
Virginia 54.6% 8.3% 50.2% 28.7% 10.9% 3.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Pittsburgh 29.4% 5.6% 26.5% 13.9% 5.0% 2.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Virginia Tech 33.6% 7.2% 29.5% 14.3% 4.3% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Florida St. 34.9% 6.6% 31.6% 14.5% 5.4% 2.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0%
North Carolina St. 16.0% 3.6% 14.2% 6.9% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Syracuse 16.6% 4.5% 14.3% 6.2% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Wake Forest 9.2% 2.0% 8.4% 3.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Boston College 4.2% 1.2% 3.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 3.8% 1.2% 3.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisville 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre Dame 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 5.4 0.2 3.2 15.4 35.0 31.0 12.5 2.6 0.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 5.1 0.0 0.4 5.3 21.7 37.6 25.8 8.2 1.1 0.0
2nd Round 99.8% 3.4 0.2 3.0 17.2 36.1 30.2 11.1 2.0 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 90.9% 1.7 9.1 35.9 36.8 15.0 2.8 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 62.9% 0.8 37.2 45.7 14.7 2.3 0.1 0.0
Final Four 36.1% 0.4 63.9 31.9 4.1 0.0 0.0
Final Game 19.2% 0.2 80.8 18.5 0.7
Champion 9.9% 0.1 90.1 9.9