Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Duke 100.0%   1   23 - 3 15 - 1 27 - 4 19 - 1 +23.5      +13.2 3 +10.3 5 64.5 279 +22.0 4 +24.5 1
22 Louisville 98.3%   7   20 - 6 13 - 2 24 - 7 17 - 3 +15.7      +8.7 18 +7.0 30 71.5 88 +15.9 23 +20.1 2
23 Clemson 94.5%   7   21 - 5 13 - 2 25 - 6 17 - 3 +15.5      +8.2 23 +7.3 28 61.7 341 +15.6 26 +19.7 3
40 SMU 37.5%   19 - 6 10 - 4 23 - 8 14 - 6 +11.8      +7.4 30 +4.4 63 72.2 78 +11.8 47 +12.6 5
41 North Carolina 26.9%   15 - 11 8 - 6 19 - 13 12 - 8 +11.8      +6.6 42 +5.1 56 76.2 23 +11.8 46 +11.2 6
51 Wake Forest 42.9%   11   19 - 7 11 - 4 22 - 9 14 - 6 +10.6      +2.9 100 +7.7 23 67.0 212 +14.8 32 +15.2 4
54 Pittsburgh 20.4%   15 - 10 6 - 8 19 - 12 10 - 10 +10.5      +6.9 36 +3.7 74 66.1 237 +10.1 58 +7.0 9
81 Florida St. 0.7%   15 - 10 6 - 8 17 - 14 8 - 12 +7.0      +1.8 119 +5.2 53 74.3 41 +6.5 82 +5.0 11
88 Stanford 0.9%   16 - 10 8 - 7 18 - 13 10 - 10 +6.4      +4.2 76 +2.2 111 67.5 198 +7.8 74 +9.2 7
90 Notre Dame 0.1%   11 - 14 5 - 9 13 - 18 7 - 13 +6.0      +4.0 78 +1.9 118 62.6 327 +2.2 138 +2.2 15
95 Virginia 0.1%   13 - 13 6 - 9 15 - 16 8 - 12 +5.3      +3.1 93 +2.2 110 55.3 363 +5.7 87 +4.7 12
97 Georgia Tech 0.1%   13 - 13 7 - 8 15 - 16 9 - 11 +5.0      +1.2 133 +3.8 71 71.7 85 +4.3 104 +7.8 8
98 North Carolina St. 0.0%   10 - 15 3 - 11 12 - 19 5 - 15 +4.7      +1.4 128 +3.4 82 63.4 306 +0.7 155 -0.5 16
109 Syracuse 0.0%   11 - 15 5 - 10 13 - 18 7 - 13 +3.5      +2.4 107 +1.1 143 71.1 100 +3.2 119 +3.1 13
113 California 0.0%   12 - 14 5 - 10 14 - 17 7 - 13 +3.2      +3.9 80 -0.7 190 68.2 181 +2.9 123 +2.5 14
119 Virginia Tech 0.0%   11 - 14 6 - 8 13 - 18 8 - 12 +2.7      +2.9 97 -0.2 178 64.3 284 +2.9 122 +6.1 10
150 Miami (FL) 0.0%   6 - 19 2 - 12 8 - 23 4 - 16 +0.6      +5.5 56 -4.9 317 68.2 182 -5.7 264 -3.1 18
183 Boston College 0.0%   10 - 15 2 - 12 11 - 20 3 - 17 -1.3      +0.4 163 -1.6 220 67.1 208 0.0 165 -3.0 17






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Duke 1.0 97.9 1.5 0.6
Louisville 2.1 14.1 62.0 23.6 0.4 0.0
Clemson 2.3 9.9 48.9 40.2 0.9 0.1
SMU 4.4 0.6 5.5 51.4 34.9 6.5 0.9 0.2 0.0
North Carolina 5.8 0.0 6.5 22.6 60.4 7.5 2.0 0.5 0.3 0.1
Wake Forest 4.3 0.2 2.9 63.8 30.3 2.7 0.1 0.0
Pittsburgh 7.9 0.0 0.8 10.8 33.7 28.5 14.5 6.5 3.0 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Florida St. 10.2 0.0 0.0 1.3 5.3 10.5 18.6 21.7 18.2 12.2 7.6 3.3 1.3 0.1
Stanford 7.2 0.5 3.8 19.2 45.6 21.2 6.8 2.1 0.6 0.2
Notre Dame 11.6 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.0 9.3 13.1 16.1 17.7 15.2 10.0 8.5 2.0 0.0
Virginia 11.4 0.0 0.4 1.8 4.6 10.5 15.9 17.9 17.5 15.2 10.8 4.9 0.6
Georgia Tech 8.5 0.5 4.7 20.4 25.9 27.2 12.7 5.7 2.0 0.8 0.1
North Carolina St. 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.6 4.9 6.8 11.2 16.8 42.4 10.7 2.8
Syracuse 12.8 0.3 1.6 4.1 8.7 12.6 15.1 16.5 18.6 15.2 7.1 0.2 0.0
California 13.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.5 6.0 10.1 15.0 17.6 21.6 20.0 5.7 0.4 0.0
Virginia Tech 10.6 0.0 1.2 4.1 8.5 16.2 19.5 19.3 13.2 9.4 5.4 2.7 0.3
Miami (FL) 17.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 3.0 19.4 46.0 30.2
Boston College 17.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.1 3.4 12.9 46.2 36.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Duke 19 - 1 0.1 3.3 26.6 70.0
Louisville 17 - 3 0.2 2.7 13.7 37.9 45.6
Clemson 17 - 3 0.0 0.6 4.3 20.9 43.4 30.8
SMU 14 - 6 0.3 2.9 11.4 24.7 31.2 22.4 7.1
North Carolina 12 - 8 0.0 1.1 6.2 21.0 36.9 28.8 6.0
Wake Forest 14 - 6 0.6 5.7 21.9 40.5 29.2 2.2
Pittsburgh 10 - 10 0.0 1.4 8.0 24.3 35.6 25.1 5.6
Florida St. 8 - 12 3.5 20.1 34.7 28.2 11.7 1.9 0.1
Stanford 10 - 10 1.7 14.3 34.9 33.4 13.9 1.9
Notre Dame 7 - 13 3.8 16.1 31.6 28.7 15.3 4.0 0.5
Virginia 8 - 12 13.7 33.7 33.0 15.4 3.8 0.5
Georgia Tech 9 - 11 2.7 16.1 33.8 33.3 12.6 1.6
North Carolina St. 5 - 15 6.0 20.8 30.6 25.3 13.3 3.7 0.3
Syracuse 7 - 13 9.0 28.7 35.7 20.9 5.3 0.6
California 7 - 13 9.0 34.9 35.7 16.7 3.5 0.3
Virginia Tech 8 - 12 6.9 24.0 33.2 25.0 9.0 1.8 0.1
Miami (FL) 4 - 16 14.9 34.9 32.8 14.2 2.9 0.3
Boston College 3 - 17 18.9 37.2 29.1 11.7 2.8 0.4




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 97.9% 80.7 13.2 4.1
Louisville 14.1% 1.1 8.9 4.1
Clemson 9.9% 0.4 5.4 4.1
SMU
North Carolina
Wake Forest
Pittsburgh
Florida St.
Stanford
Notre Dame
Virginia
Georgia Tech
North Carolina St.
Syracuse
California
Virginia Tech
Miami (FL)
Boston College


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 100.0% 66.4% 33.6% 1   64.9 31.5 3.3 0.3 0.0 100.0%
Louisville 98.3% 12.0% 86.3% 7   0.3 1.3 4.2 8.0 13.5 19.2 23.0 17.1 9.1 2.3 0.2 1.7 98.0%
Clemson 94.5% 12.3% 82.2% 7   0.1 1.1 2.1 4.6 7.8 12.8 17.3 20.0 18.3 8.8 1.6 0.0 5.6 93.7%
SMU 37.5% 3.1% 34.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.6 1.3 3.8 10.1 19.8 1.6 62.5 35.5%
North Carolina 26.9% 2.5% 24.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 2.1 6.1 15.7 1.8 73.1 25.0%
Wake Forest 42.9% 2.1% 40.8% 11   0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 4.0 11.6 24.5 1.6 57.1 41.6%
Pittsburgh 20.4% 1.1% 19.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 4.1 13.1 1.5 79.6 19.5%
Florida St. 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 99.3 0.5%
Stanford 0.9% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 99.1 0.7%
Notre Dame 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Virginia 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1 0.0 99.9 0.1%
Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
North Carolina St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Syracuse 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
California 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Virginia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Miami (FL) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.5% 81.7% 61.1% 42.6% 27.0% 16.9%
Louisville 98.3% 0.2% 98.2% 67.6% 27.9% 11.2% 4.4% 1.4% 0.6%
Clemson 94.5% 1.4% 93.9% 60.5% 22.0% 9.3% 3.4% 1.2% 0.4%
SMU 37.5% 19.8% 28.2% 11.2% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
North Carolina 26.9% 16.3% 19.5% 8.1% 2.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Wake Forest 42.9% 24.7% 29.7% 10.3% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 20.4% 13.8% 14.0% 4.9% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida St. 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre Dame 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Carolina St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Syracuse 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (FL) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.2 0.9 19.8 43.3 28.5 7.0 0.5 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 3.8 0.0 2.0 33.2 45.3 17.1 2.3 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 2.6 0.1 7.8 35.8 43.6 11.6 1.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 91.7% 1.4 8.3 50.0 34.8 6.5 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 70.7% 0.8 29.4 57.9 12.1 0.7
Final Four 47.8% 0.5 52.2 44.6 3.2
Final Game 29.1% 0.3 70.9 28.6 0.5
Champion 17.9% 0.2 82.1 17.9