Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
16 Virginia 99.0%   4   17 - 3 9 - 2 24 - 5 16 - 4 +14.2      +7.2 26 +7.0 22 57.5 360 +17.7 9 +15.9 1
24 Duke 91.1%   7   16 - 6 7 - 4 22 - 9 13 - 7 +13.2      +6.8 31 +6.5 31 66.1 241 +12.9 29 +10.5 6
26 North Carolina 79.6%   9   15 - 7 7 - 4 20 - 11 12 - 8 +12.9      +7.6 22 +5.3 46 72.2 77 +11.5 39 +9.7 7
34 Miami (FL) 88.9%   8   17 - 5 8 - 4 22 - 8 13 - 7 +12.1      +9.5 8 +2.6 101 69.5 138 +13.5 21 +11.3 5
37 North Carolina St. 77.9%   9   18 - 5 8 - 4 23 - 8 13 - 7 +11.5      +6.9 29 +4.5 59 73.0 63 +13.5 22 +12.4 4
49 Virginia Tech 26.7%   13 - 9 3 - 8 19 - 12 9 - 11 +10.0      +5.9 40 +4.1 71 66.1 244 +8.0 67 +4.1 12
60 Clemson 29.0%   18 - 5 10 - 2 22 - 9 14 - 6 +8.9      +3.7 74 +5.2 47 69.1 150 +11.3 44 +15.8 2
64 Pittsburgh 40.3%   16 - 7 9 - 3 21 - 10 14 - 6 +8.4      +4.7 62 +3.7 74 67.0 217 +11.0 47 +15.4 3
67 Wake Forest 9.1%   14 - 9 6 - 6 19 - 12 11 - 9 +8.3      +7.2 25 +1.0 140 73.1 60 +8.2 64 +8.5 8
75 Syracuse 3.5%   13 - 10 6 - 6 17 - 14 10 - 10 +7.0      +5.1 52 +1.8 117 68.1 181 +4.8 100 +6.9 9
127 Notre Dame 0.8%   10 - 12 2 - 9 12 - 19 4 - 16 +2.3      +4.9 57 -2.6 252 62.8 319 +0.1 166 -6.0 13
140 Florida St. 0.7%   7 - 16 5 - 7 10 - 21 8 - 12 +1.7      +2.0 116 -0.3 184 71.1 103 -0.8 186 +5.6 11
144 Boston College 0.6%   11 - 12 5 - 7 13 - 18 7 - 13 +1.6      -1.7 230 +3.3 86 65.7 259 +2.9 127 +6.3 10
172 Georgia Tech 0.4%   7 - 14 1 - 11 9 - 20 3 - 17 0.0      -1.5 226 +1.5 128 67.4 198 -0.5 177 -6.3 14
248 Louisville 0.1%   3 - 19 1 - 10 4 - 27 2 - 18 -4.5      -3.5 281 -1.0 208 68.3 174 -9.5 323 -6.9 15





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Virginia 1.5 74.1 14.3 6.3 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
Duke 4.8 4.6 10.0 13.9 16.0 16.5 16.2 13.9 6.0 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
North Carolina 5.1 4.4 9.4 12.2 14.2 15.4 15.7 15.6 8.5 3.4 1.0 0.3 0.0
Miami (FL) 4.1 7.0 17.2 17.7 17.7 16.5 13.0 7.5 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
North Carolina St. 4.7 5.0 10.6 14.4 16.7 18.3 16.4 11.4 5.1 1.7 0.4 0.0
Virginia Tech 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 5.6 14.6 25.2 30.3 14.9 6.0 0.7 0.1
Clemson 2.6 25.7 30.2 19.7 11.9 7.1 3.6 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Pittsburgh 2.9 17.2 30.2 22.6 14.6 9.0 4.3 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wake Forest 7.7 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.8 5.8 11.0 19.0 27.8 20.4 9.1 2.2 0.5 0.0
Syracuse 8.2 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.0 3.9 7.8 14.5 24.7 24.4 14.5 5.5 1.6 0.0
Notre Dame 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 3.0 10.2 59.8 23.1 2.8
Florida St. 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 4.2 10.3 20.6 34.6 26.8 2.0 0.0
Boston College 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 3.4 8.5 17.2 31.8 35.1 2.9 0.1
Georgia Tech 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 4.0 35.5 45.7 13.9
Louisville 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 8.4 29.1 62.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Virginia 16 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.6 11.6 23.5 30.8 22.5 7.2
Duke 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 1.0 5.0 13.7 23.8 27.0 19.4 8.4 1.6
North Carolina 12 - 8 0.1 0.5 2.3 7.5 15.6 23.3 24.6 16.9 7.6 1.6
Miami (FL) 13 - 7 0.0 0.2 1.6 7.6 18.9 28.3 26.3 13.9 3.2
North Carolina St. 13 - 7 0.1 0.6 3.8 12.1 23.4 28.4 21.3 8.8 1.4
Virginia Tech 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.7 10.8 21.5 27.5 22.8 10.6 2.2
Clemson 14 - 6 0.1 1.1 5.7 16.5 28.9 28.1 14.8 4.4 0.5
Pittsburgh 14 - 6 0.0 0.2 1.8 7.8 20.3 29.7 26.4 11.6 2.1
Wake Forest 11 - 9 0.1 1.1 5.3 15.9 27.3 27.6 16.6 5.5 0.7
Syracuse 10 - 10 0.4 3.0 10.9 21.1 26.8 22.2 11.6 3.5 0.5
Notre Dame 4 - 16 7.1 20.7 28.2 23.9 13.3 5.1 1.4 0.2 0.0
Florida St. 8 - 12 3.6 15.6 27.9 28.1 16.9 6.3 1.4 0.2 0.0
Boston College 7 - 13 5.3 20.2 29.9 25.5 13.2 4.8 1.0 0.1 0.0
Georgia Tech 3 - 17 4.2 19.0 32.3 26.7 12.9 4.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
Louisville 2 - 18 28.2 39.1 23.1 7.6 1.7 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Virginia 74.1% 51.7 15.5 5.1 1.4 0.3 0.0
Duke 4.6% 1.0 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
North Carolina 4.4% 0.9 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Miami (FL) 7.0% 1.6 2.7 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
North Carolina St. 5.0% 1.0 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
Virginia Tech
Clemson 25.7% 10.9 9.2 4.0 1.2 0.2 0.0
Pittsburgh 17.2% 5.0 7.2 3.6 1.1 0.2 0.0
Wake Forest 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Syracuse 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Notre Dame
Florida St.
Boston College
Georgia Tech
Louisville


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Virginia 99.0% 19.1% 80.0% 4   3.6 10.1 18.4 22.6 18.4 12.8 6.6 3.3 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 1.0 98.8%
Duke 91.1% 15.5% 75.6% 7   0.3 1.1 2.8 6.4 9.9 13.6 14.9 14.6 12.6 10.7 3.9 0.1 8.9 89.5%
North Carolina 79.6% 14.6% 65.0% 9   0.2 0.7 1.3 3.2 5.3 7.0 11.2 12.4 14.3 14.6 8.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 20.4 76.1%
Miami (FL) 88.9% 11.9% 77.1% 8   0.1 0.5 1.8 3.3 6.9 10.2 15.5 17.1 16.3 12.8 4.4 0.1 11.1 87.4%
North Carolina St. 77.9% 10.4% 67.5% 9   0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.6 6.7 10.2 12.3 15.0 17.2 10.0 0.4 22.1 75.3%
Virginia Tech 26.7% 7.3% 19.4% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 1.0 2.5 7.7 10.9 2.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 73.3 21.0%
Clemson 29.0% 5.5% 23.5% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.1 2.7 5.0 8.4 10.2 0.9 0.0 71.0 24.8%
Pittsburgh 40.3% 4.9% 35.4% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.9 5.1 8.3 12.4 10.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 59.7 37.2%
Wake Forest 9.1% 5.0% 4.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.2 4.3 1.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 90.9 4.3%
Syracuse 3.5% 3.3% 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 96.5 0.2%
Notre Dame 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 99.2 0.0%
Florida St. 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 99.3 0.0%
Boston College 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.4 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%
Louisville 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Virginia 99.0% 0.4% 98.9% 77.7% 42.5% 19.5% 8.7% 3.7% 1.5%
Duke 91.1% 4.9% 89.0% 55.2% 23.6% 10.3% 4.4% 1.8% 0.7%
North Carolina 79.6% 9.4% 75.5% 44.3% 18.1% 8.2% 3.5% 1.4% 0.6%
Miami (FL) 88.9% 5.8% 86.2% 48.7% 18.0% 7.6% 3.0% 1.1% 0.4%
North Carolina St. 77.9% 12.1% 72.2% 37.3% 12.6% 5.1% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
Virginia Tech 26.7% 10.5% 21.6% 9.0% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Clemson 29.0% 9.8% 23.4% 8.9% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 40.3% 11.4% 33.6% 12.6% 3.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Wake Forest 9.1% 3.1% 7.5% 2.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Syracuse 3.5% 0.3% 3.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre Dame 0.8% 0.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida St. 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisville 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 5.5 0.0 0.1 1.6 13.1 36.4 35.2 12.1 1.5 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 5.1 0.0 0.2 3.5 21.0 41.2 27.1 6.5 0.5 0.0
2nd Round 99.3% 3.0 0.7 7.2 25.0 36.5 23.2 6.5 0.8 0.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 78.5% 1.2 21.5 42.7 27.1 7.6 1.1 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 44.9% 0.5 55.1 36.8 7.5 0.6 0.0
Final Four 20.7% 0.2 79.3 19.3 1.3 0.0
Final Game 8.5% 0.1 91.5 8.4 0.2
Champion 3.4% 0.0 96.6 3.4