Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
4 Duke 100.0%   2   11 - 1 0 - 0 26 - 5 15 - 3 +21.8      +10.8 11 +11.0 5 70.0 168 +24.6 7 0.0 1
12 Louisville 98.3%   4   10 - 2 0 - 0 23 - 8 13 - 5 +17.9      +11.3 8 +6.6 28 74.5 51 +18.0 19 0.0 1
22 North Carolina 96.2%   5   11 - 1 0 - 0 24 - 7 12 - 6 +15.3      +7.7 37 +7.6 20 69.4 187 +22.6 12 0.0 1
26 North Carolina St. 81.7%   8   9 - 4 0 - 0 21 - 10 12 - 6 +14.8      +9.1 21 +5.7 39 73.1 85 +10.8 57 0.0 1
29 Virginia 87.8%   7   10 - 1 0 - 0 23 - 8 12 - 6 +14.3      +10.1 14 +4.2 64 66.3 270 +17.2 21 0.0 1
35 Miami (FL) 71.2%   10   11 - 2 0 - 0 23 - 8 12 - 6 +13.3      +6.4 50 +6.8 25 73.5 71 +14.4 34 0.0 1
41 Clemson 68.6%   10   10 - 3 0 - 0 21 - 10 11 - 7 +12.2      +6.0 56 +6.2 31 62.5 343 +14.1 36 0.0 1
42 SMU 69.9%   9   10 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 10 10 - 8 +12.1      +8.1 31 +4.0 70 72.3 103 +15.9 29 0.0 1
61 Wake Forest 19.5%   9 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 14 8 - 10 +8.6      +4.2 78 +4.5 60 73.2 82 +9.5 63 0.0 1
62 Notre Dame 20.9%   9 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 14 8 - 10 +8.5      +4.1 80 +4.4 62 64.1 315 +9.5 62 0.0 1
65 California 28.1%   11 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 11 8 - 10 +8.3      +4.2 79 +4.2 67 68.5 210 +15.2 31 0.0 1
71 Virginia Tech 19.7%   11 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 13 7 - 11 +7.8      +4.8 68 +3.0 88 70.2 164 +12.7 45 0.0 1
75 Syracuse 9.9%   8 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 15 7 - 11 +7.4      +3.8 86 +3.6 74 69.7 175 +7.9 77 0.0 1
82 Stanford 14.2%   10 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 13 7 - 11 +6.9      +3.4 97 +3.6 75 72.5 97 +10.0 59 0.0 1
87 Pittsburgh 3.3%   7 - 6 0 - 0 14 - 17 7 - 11 +6.6      +4.4 74 +2.2 104 63.0 335 +2.3 138 0.0 1
118 Florida St. 0.2%   6 - 6 0 - 0 12 - 19 5 - 13 +3.2      +1.6 126 +1.6 119 81.9 7 -0.3 172 0.0 1
126 Georgia Tech 0.1%   8 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 17 5 - 13 +2.1      -1.0 190 +3.1 86 73.9 64 +0.5 157 0.0 1
152 Boston College 0.0%   5 - 6 0 - 0 11 - 20 4 - 14 +0.7      -2.5 232 +3.1 83 66.9 254 -4.2 233 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Fri, Dec 19 65 California 97 360 Morgan St. 50   
Fri, Dec 19 118 Florida St. 96 365 Mississippi Valley 49   
Sat, Dec 20 22 North Carolina 71 31 Ohio St. 70   
Sat, Dec 20 4 Duke 81 24 Texas Tech 82   
Sat, Dec 20 73 Colorado 68 82 Stanford 77   
Sat, Dec 20 95 Maryland 72 29 Virginia 80   
Sat, Dec 20 166 Elon 81 71 Virginia Tech 82   
Sat, Dec 20 205 Northeastern 83 75 Syracuse 91   
Sat, Dec 20 12 Louisville 94 207 Montana 54   
Sat, Dec 20 126 Georgia Tech 95 321 Lafayette 81   
Sun, Dec 21 66 Cincinnati 65 41 Clemson 68   
Sun, Dec 21 26 North Carolina St. 76 63 Mississippi 62   
Sun, Dec 21 9 Vanderbilt 98 61 Wake Forest 67   
Sun, Dec 21 123 Penn St. 46 87 Pittsburgh 80   
Sun, Dec 21 65 California 74 141 Columbia 56   
Sun, Dec 21 62 Notre Dame 69 199 Purdue Fort Wayne 72   
Sun, Dec 21 283 Central Arkansas 82 42 SMU 99   
Sun, Dec 21 35 Miami (FL) 105 350 North Florida 67   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Mon, Dec 22 118 Florida St. 84 312 Jacksonville 69 91%   
Mon, Dec 22 253 American 65 29 Virginia 88 97%   
Mon, Dec 22 258 East Carolina 61 22 North Carolina 84 98%   
Mon, Dec 22 337 Stonehill 59 75 Syracuse 80 96%   
Mon, Dec 22 152 Boston College 81 358 Fairleigh Dickinson 63 95%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Duke 1.8 61.7 18.2 8.9 4.8 2.8 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisville 3.7 20.7 20.0 16.1 12.1 9.3 6.8 5.0 3.5 2.4 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
North Carolina 5.3 9.2 12.6 13.4 12.4 11.1 9.9 8.4 6.8 5.1 3.8 2.5 1.9 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
North Carolina St. 5.1 9.9 14.4 13.6 12.6 11.0 9.3 7.9 6.4 4.7 3.4 2.5 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Virginia 5.2 8.4 14.0 13.9 12.9 11.3 9.7 7.8 6.3 4.7 3.6 2.7 1.7 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1
Miami (FL) 5.1 8.7 14.3 14.0 13.1 11.4 9.8 7.9 6.2 4.8 3.3 2.3 1.7 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Clemson 6.3 4.5 9.0 10.7 11.1 11.1 10.5 9.8 8.4 6.9 5.4 4.0 3.3 2.1 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1
SMU 7.4 3.0 6.3 7.6 8.4 8.9 9.7 9.5 9.1 8.4 7.4 6.1 5.0 3.7 3.0 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.2
Wake Forest 10.1 0.5 1.6 2.6 3.8 4.7 5.9 7.1 8.1 8.7 9.4 9.3 9.0 8.2 7.2 5.8 4.3 2.6 1.3
Notre Dame 9.8 0.6 1.7 2.9 3.9 5.3 6.6 7.9 8.7 9.6 9.4 9.3 8.7 7.5 6.4 4.9 3.5 2.1 1.0
California 9.7 0.8 2.0 3.1 4.3 5.4 6.5 7.9 8.4 9.2 9.1 8.9 8.3 7.2 6.3 5.1 3.7 2.5 1.3
Virginia Tech 11.2 0.2 0.7 1.1 2.1 2.9 4.0 5.5 6.7 8.3 9.2 9.7 10.8 10.2 9.6 7.8 5.7 3.8 1.7
Syracuse 11.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.2 3.3 4.2 5.6 7.0 8.0 8.9 9.5 10.0 9.6 8.9 7.8 6.0 4.5 2.2
Stanford 11.7 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.8 2.8 3.7 4.6 5.8 7.0 8.1 8.9 9.9 10.0 9.9 9.2 7.6 5.5 3.2
Pittsburgh 12.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.3 3.0 4.1 5.4 6.5 7.9 8.5 9.6 10.1 10.4 9.6 8.7 7.0 3.9
Florida St. 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.9 2.7 3.7 4.7 6.4 8.0 10.6 13.0 15.1 16.8 14.1
Georgia Tech 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.1 3.0 4.2 5.9 7.5 10.0 13.0 16.2 18.3 16.4
Boston College 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.7 3.8 5.5 7.6 10.8 15.0 21.1 28.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Duke 15 - 3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.8 6.0 10.4 16.3 20.8 21.2 15.2 5.7
Louisville 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.5 7.6 12.0 15.3 17.5 16.7 12.3 7.4 2.9 0.5
North Carolina 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.8 5.5 9.1 13.1 15.8 16.0 14.8 11.0 6.1 2.9 0.8 0.1
North Carolina St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.7 5.0 8.6 12.3 15.0 16.0 15.2 11.5 7.1 3.5 1.0 0.2
Virginia 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 3.0 5.2 8.6 12.2 15.4 16.6 15.0 11.2 6.7 3.1 0.8 0.1
Miami (FL) 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.6 5.1 8.2 12.2 15.6 16.8 15.1 11.3 6.9 3.3 1.1 0.2
Clemson 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.6 5.0 8.3 12.0 15.1 15.8 14.6 11.7 7.4 4.0 1.4 0.3 0.0
SMU 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.6 5.0 8.1 11.3 14.2 15.1 14.5 11.5 8.2 4.9 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
Wake Forest 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.2 4.3 7.9 11.5 14.7 15.1 14.1 11.7 8.4 5.1 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Notre Dame 8 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.5 6.9 10.5 13.8 15.6 15.4 12.6 9.1 5.8 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
California 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.9 6.9 10.3 13.2 15.2 14.5 12.6 9.0 6.2 3.3 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 7 - 11 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.9 6.3 10.8 14.8 16.7 15.9 13.3 8.7 5.2 2.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Syracuse 7 - 11 0.0 0.4 1.3 3.4 6.6 10.6 13.9 15.9 15.3 12.8 9.2 5.8 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Stanford 7 - 11 0.1 0.7 1.9 4.6 8.3 12.4 14.8 15.9 14.0 11.1 7.5 4.8 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 7 - 11 0.1 0.8 2.4 5.9 9.4 13.1 15.3 15.4 13.4 10.6 6.8 3.8 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Florida St. 5 - 13 0.8 3.7 9.1 13.9 17.0 17.1 14.5 10.3 6.6 3.9 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 5 - 13 1.0 4.2 10.1 15.8 17.9 17.7 13.9 9.0 5.7 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Boston College 4 - 14 2.8 8.6 15.2 18.8 18.0 14.7 10.2 6.0 3.3 1.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 61.7% 45.4 12.3 3.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisville 20.7% 11.3 6.7 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Carolina 9.2% 4.5 3.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Carolina St. 9.9% 4.7 3.5 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia 8.4% 3.9 2.9 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Miami (FL) 8.7% 3.7 3.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Clemson 4.5% 1.7 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
SMU 3.0% 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wake Forest 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Notre Dame 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
California 0.8% 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Syracuse 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stanford 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Florida St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0
Boston College


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 100.0% 43.0% 57.0% 2   35.3 34.7 17.5 7.6 3.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Louisville 98.3% 18.3% 80.0% 4   4.9 11.2 18.5 19.0 15.5 11.4 7.7 4.9 2.8 1.7 0.8 0.0 1.7 97.9%
North Carolina 96.2% 8.7% 87.6% 5   1.5 4.3 11.1 15.1 17.1 15.7 11.8 8.4 5.6 3.7 1.9 0.1 3.8 95.9%
North Carolina St. 81.7% 8.0% 73.7% 8   0.2 0.9 2.7 5.2 8.3 10.8 13.6 13.7 11.3 9.7 5.1 0.2 0.0 18.3 80.1%
Virginia 87.8% 7.3% 80.5% 7   0.4 1.4 4.0 7.6 10.5 13.0 12.9 12.5 11.4 9.3 4.8 0.1 12.2 86.9%
Miami (FL) 71.2% 5.2% 66.0% 10   0.1 0.3 1.3 2.7 5.3 7.5 9.8 11.1 11.9 12.6 8.4 0.2 28.8 69.6%
Clemson 68.6% 3.4% 65.3% 10   0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.9 6.3 8.9 11.4 13.1 13.4 8.9 0.2 31.4 67.5%
SMU 69.9% 3.1% 66.9% 9   0.0 0.2 1.2 2.4 4.6 7.3 9.8 12.1 12.8 11.8 7.6 0.3 0.0 30.1 69.0%
Wake Forest 19.5% 0.5% 18.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 3.5 5.6 6.3 0.4 80.5 19.0%
Notre Dame 20.9% 0.6% 20.3% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.2 6.1 5.9 0.3 79.1 20.4%
California 28.1% 0.6% 27.4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.3 5.3 7.2 8.5 0.3 71.9 27.6%
Virginia Tech 19.7% 0.4% 19.3% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.6 5.7 6.5 0.3 80.3 19.3%
Syracuse 9.9% 0.3% 9.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.9 3.6 0.1 0.0 90.1 9.6%
Stanford 14.2% 0.3% 14.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.6 4.4 4.4 0.2 85.8 14.0%
Pittsburgh 3.3% 0.2% 3.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.1 96.7 3.1%
Florida St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.8 0.2%
Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.9 0.1%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.4% 74.3% 47.3% 26.2% 14.1% 7.1%
Louisville 98.3% 0.9% 97.9% 82.6% 47.7% 21.6% 9.6% 4.0% 1.7%
North Carolina 96.2% 2.2% 95.2% 69.4% 31.6% 11.7% 4.4% 1.5% 0.5%
North Carolina St. 81.7% 5.8% 79.1% 50.5% 18.2% 6.9% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2%
Virginia 87.8% 5.4% 85.1% 53.9% 19.7% 7.1% 2.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Miami (FL) 71.2% 9.5% 66.7% 37.9% 11.4% 4.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Clemson 68.6% 9.8% 63.6% 32.4% 8.4% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
SMU 69.9% 8.6% 65.5% 34.5% 9.3% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
Wake Forest 19.5% 7.2% 15.4% 6.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre Dame 20.9% 6.6% 17.3% 6.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
California 28.1% 9.4% 22.6% 8.7% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 19.7% 7.1% 15.6% 5.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Syracuse 9.9% 3.9% 7.8% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 14.2% 5.0% 11.3% 3.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 3.3% 1.2% 2.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida St. 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.9 0.0 0.8 7.5 26.8 37.1 22.0 5.2 0.5 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 7.5 0.1 2.3 14.6 35.0 33.1 13.0 1.9 0.1 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 4.9 0.1 1.5 8.5 25.0 34.0 22.8 7.1 1.0 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 97.4% 2.3 2.6 19.5 38.9 28.4 9.2 1.4 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 75.3% 1.1 24.7 48.8 22.6 3.7 0.2 0.0
Final Four 42.9% 0.5 57.1 37.8 5.0 0.1
Final Game 21.3% 0.2 78.7 20.6 0.6
Champion 9.9% 0.1 90.1 9.9