Miami (FL)
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.3#35
Expected Predictive Rating+14.6#34
Pace73.2#76
Improvement+0.2#163

Offense
Total Offense+6.3#51
First Shot+5.7#46
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#134
Layup/Dunks+11.9#1
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#278
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#310
Freethrows+0.0#187
Improvement+0.7#128

Defense
Total Defense+6.9#25
First Shot+7.8#13
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#263
Layups/Dunks+4.8#35
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#10
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#249
Freethrows+1.6#73
Improvement-0.5#216
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.3% 3.8% 1.0%
Top 6 Seed 14.3% 16.2% 6.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 69.7% 72.4% 57.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 68.2% 70.9% 56.4%
Average Seed 8.2 8.1 8.9
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 90.7% 93.4% 78.8%
Conference Champion 8.0% 9.2% 2.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four10.3% 9.9% 11.9%
First Round64.7% 67.6% 51.8%
Second Round35.0% 37.1% 25.5%
Sweet Sixteen9.9% 10.6% 6.4%
Elite Eight3.4% 3.7% 2.2%
Final Four1.1% 1.2% 0.6%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Pittsburgh (Home) - 81.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 7
Quad 24 - 19 - 9
Quad 36 - 115 - 9
Quad 49 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 317 Jacksonville W 86-69 98%     1 - 0 +4.7 +3.6 +0.3
  Thu, Nov 6 275 Bethune-Cookman W 101-61 97%     2 - 0 +30.9 +20.3 +9.4
  Mon, Nov 10 349 Stetson W 102-61 99%     3 - 0 +25.6 +10.3 +10.7
  Sun, Nov 16 14 Florida L 68-82 33%     3 - 1 +3.9 -1.4 +6.6
  Thu, Nov 20 162 Elon W 99-72 93%     4 - 1 +23.9 +15.3 +7.4
  Sun, Nov 23 345 Delaware St. W 97-41 99%     5 - 1 +40.9 +19.9 +20.6
  Thu, Nov 27 10 BYU L 62-72 27%     5 - 2 +9.6 -1.6 +11.0
  Fri, Nov 28 97 Georgetown W 78-65 77%     6 - 2 +18.5 +13.0 +6.6
  Tue, Dec 2 60 @Mississippi W 75-66 55%     7 - 2 +20.9 +12.1 +9.2
  Sat, Dec 6 208 Southern Miss W 88-64 95%     8 - 2 +17.8 +7.6 +8.9
  Sat, Dec 13 353 Louisiana Monroe W 104-79 99%     9 - 2 +8.6 +21.2 -12.8
  Tue, Dec 16 184 Florida International W 98-81 94%     10 - 2 +12.4 +14.5 -3.4
  Sun, Dec 21 347 North Florida W 105-67 99%     11 - 2 +22.7 +13.6 +6.5
  Tue, Dec 30 84 Pittsburgh W 78-68 82%    
  Wed, Jan 7 62 @Wake Forest W 78-77 55%    
  Sat, Jan 10 126 Georgia Tech W 83-69 91%    
  Tue, Jan 13 65 @Notre Dame W 73-71 57%    
  Sat, Jan 17 41 @Clemson L 70-72 42%    
  Tue, Jan 20 113 Florida St. W 88-75 88%    
  Sat, Jan 24 75 @Syracuse W 77-74 60%    
  Wed, Jan 28 87 Stanford W 83-73 82%    
  Sat, Jan 31 68 California W 79-71 77%    
  Sat, Feb 7 160 @Boston College W 76-66 83%    
  Tue, Feb 10 21 North Carolina W 76-75 51%    
  Sat, Feb 14 27 @North Carolina St. L 77-82 34%    
  Tue, Feb 17 74 Virginia Tech W 81-72 79%    
  Sat, Feb 21 25 @Virginia L 74-79 33%    
  Tue, Feb 24 113 @Florida St. W 85-78 73%    
  Sat, Feb 28 160 Boston College W 79-63 93%    
  Wed, Mar 4 37 @SMU L 78-81 40%    
  Sat, Mar 7 13 Louisville L 80-82 44%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.8 2.2 0.8 0.2 8.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.2 5.8 3.3 0.7 0.1 13.4 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.1 6.5 3.3 0.4 0.0 13.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 6.5 4.1 0.5 0.0 13.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 5.0 5.1 0.9 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.2 2.9 5.8 1.6 0.0 10.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 4.4 2.6 0.2 8.3 7th
8th 0.2 2.7 3.3 0.5 0.0 6.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 2.9 1.0 0.0 4.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.9 1.5 0.1 3.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 2.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.0 13th
14th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.5 5.1 8.5 12.7 16.0 16.9 15.0 11.2 6.6 2.9 0.8 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-1 93.4% 0.8    0.6 0.1 0.0
16-2 76.6% 2.2    1.3 0.8 0.1
15-3 43.3% 2.8    1.0 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.0
14-4 15.1% 1.7    0.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 1.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.0% 8.0 3.4 3.0 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 25.5% 74.5% 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.8% 100.0% 16.1% 83.9% 3.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.9% 99.9% 16.5% 83.4% 4.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-3 6.6% 99.3% 11.1% 88.2% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3%
14-4 11.2% 97.8% 9.0% 88.9% 7.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.5 3.2 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.2 97.6%
13-5 15.0% 93.2% 6.9% 86.2% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.7 4.0 3.4 1.8 0.3 1.0 92.7%
12-6 16.9% 83.7% 4.2% 79.5% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.8 4.4 4.0 1.3 0.0 2.8 83.0%
11-7 16.0% 67.9% 2.2% 65.7% 9.7 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.5 4.2 2.7 0.0 5.1 67.2%
10-8 12.7% 48.5% 1.1% 47.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.3 2.7 0.1 6.5 47.9%
9-9 8.5% 29.7% 0.8% 29.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 0.0 6.0 29.2%
8-10 5.1% 12.5% 0.5% 12.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 4.5 12.0%
7-11 2.5% 2.3% 0.3% 2.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.0%
6-12 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 1.1 0.3%
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 69.7% 4.7% 65.0% 8.2 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.2 4.2 6.8 9.1 11.1 12.5 13.3 9.1 0.2 30.3 68.2%