Miami (FL)
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.1#34
Expected Predictive Rating+13.5#21
Pace69.5#138
Improvement+0.0#190

Offense
Total Offense+9.5#8
First Shot+8.6#7
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#101
Layup/Dunks+5.3#19
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#170
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#102
Freethrows+1.3#83
Improvement-0.2#229

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#101
First Shot+4.4#57
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#331
Layups/Dunks-0.8#216
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#194
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#69
Freethrows+2.3#36
Improvement+0.2#156
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.6% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 5.7% 10.1% 1.1%
Top 6 Seed 22.8% 34.6% 10.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 88.9% 94.5% 83.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 87.4% 93.7% 81.1%
Average Seed 7.7 7.0 8.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 7.0% 12.3% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.8% 2.5% 9.3%
First Round86.2% 93.4% 78.7%
Second Round48.7% 56.0% 41.1%
Sweet Sixteen18.0% 22.4% 13.5%
Elite Eight7.6% 9.5% 5.6%
Final Four3.0% 3.8% 2.2%
Championship Game1.1% 1.3% 0.8%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

Next Game: Clemson (Away) - 51.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b4 - 45 - 6
Quad 24 - 19 - 7
Quad 35 - 114 - 8
Quad 48 - 022 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 261   Lafayette W 67-54 96%     1 - 0 +4.9 +1.3 +5.1
  Nov 11, 2022 138   UNC Greensboro W 79-65 89%     2 - 0 +13.0 +14.4 -0.7
  Nov 15, 2022 358   Florida A&M W 87-61 99%     3 - 0 +7.7 +8.1 -0.8
  Nov 19, 2022 25   Providence W 74-64 47%     4 - 0 +23.0 +8.4 +14.8
  Nov 20, 2022 31   Maryland L 70-88 49%     4 - 1 -5.6 +5.6 -11.6
  Nov 23, 2022 349   St. Francis Brooklyn W 79-56 99%     5 - 1 +7.9 +1.2 +7.0
  Nov 27, 2022 65   @ Central Florida W 66-64 54%     6 - 1 +13.1 +8.3 +5.1
  Nov 30, 2022 20   Rutgers W 68-61 54%     7 - 1 +18.0 +11.1 +7.6
  Dec 04, 2022 248   @ Louisville W 80-53 90%     8 - 1 1 - 0 +25.2 +2.9 +20.8
  Dec 07, 2022 105   Cornell W 107-105 85%     9 - 1 +3.2 +17.2 -14.2
  Dec 10, 2022 37   North Carolina St. W 80-73 63%     10 - 1 2 - 0 +15.7 +11.1 +4.7
  Dec 17, 2022 325   St. Francis (PA) W 91-76 98%     11 - 1 +3.0 +11.5 -8.3
  Dec 20, 2022 16   Virginia W 66-64 53%     12 - 1 3 - 0 +13.5 +2.1 +11.4
  Dec 30, 2022 127   @ Notre Dame W 76-65 75%     13 - 1 4 - 0 +16.0 +4.9 +11.6
  Jan 04, 2023 172   @ Georgia Tech L 70-76 81%     13 - 2 4 - 1 -3.3 -0.8 -2.4
  Jan 11, 2023 144   Boston College W 88-72 89%     14 - 2 5 - 1 +14.8 +22.8 -6.9
  Jan 14, 2023 37   @ North Carolina St. L 81-83 OT 42%     14 - 3 5 - 2 +12.2 +9.8 +2.6
  Jan 16, 2023 75   Syracuse W 82-78 77%     15 - 3 6 - 2 +8.2 +11.9 -3.5
  Jan 21, 2023 24   @ Duke L 66-68 35%     15 - 4 6 - 3 +14.0 +8.2 +5.5
  Jan 24, 2023 140   @ Florida St. W 86-63 77%     16 - 4 7 - 3 +27.4 +12.9 +14.1
  Jan 28, 2023 64   @ Pittsburgh L 68-71 54%     16 - 5 7 - 4 +8.1 +0.8 +7.3
  Jan 31, 2023 49   Virginia Tech W 92-83 68%     17 - 5 8 - 4 +16.3 +19.0 -3.1
  Feb 04, 2023 60   @ Clemson W 74-73 51%    
  Feb 06, 2023 24   Duke W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 11, 2023 248   Louisville W 82-63 97%    
  Feb 13, 2023 26   @ North Carolina L 75-79 36%    
  Feb 18, 2023 67   Wake Forest W 83-76 74%    
  Feb 21, 2023 49   @ Virginia Tech L 73-74 46%    
  Feb 25, 2023 140   Florida St. W 83-70 89%    
  Mar 04, 2023 64   Pittsburgh W 77-71 73%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 13 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.0 2.2 7.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 7.6 8.1 1.0 17.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 4.1 11.8 1.7 0.0 17.7 3rd
4th 0.9 11.4 5.4 0.1 17.7 4th
5th 0.2 5.6 10.1 0.6 16.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.7 9.1 2.2 0.0 13.0 6th
7th 0.3 3.9 3.2 0.1 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 1.7 0.1 2.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.6 7.6 18.9 28.3 26.3 13.9 3.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 69.0% 2.2    1.0 1.0 0.1 0.0
15-5 28.8% 4.0    0.5 1.6 1.4 0.4 0.1
14-6 2.8% 0.7    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.0% 7.0 1.6 2.7 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 3.2% 100.0% 19.0% 81.0% 3.3 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 13.9% 99.7% 15.0% 84.7% 5.4 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.8 4.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
14-6 26.3% 98.3% 13.2% 85.2% 7.1 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.3 9.6 6.4 2.3 0.3 0.0 0.4 98.1%
13-7 28.3% 92.6% 11.0% 81.6% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.7 8.5 8.8 4.1 0.5 2.1 91.7%
12-8 18.9% 78.5% 9.7% 68.8% 9.5 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.6 6.2 1.8 0.0 4.1 76.2%
11-9 7.6% 57.9% 8.4% 49.5% 10.3 0.1 0.5 2.0 1.7 0.1 3.2 54.1%
10-10 1.6% 34.2% 8.5% 25.7% 10.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 1.1 28.1%
9-11 0.2% 14.5% 7.9% 6.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.1%
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 88.9% 11.9% 77.1% 7.7 0.1 0.5 1.8 3.3 6.9 10.2 15.5 17.1 16.3 12.8 4.4 0.1 11.1 87.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.2% 100.0% 3.3 2.1 16.0 42.1 31.9 7.1 0.8