Miami (FL)
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +13.0 40
Expected Predictive Rating +15.6 31
Pace 70.3 130
Improvement -2.5 286

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B+ 51 B+ B+ C+ C+ B
Defense B+ 35 B- B B B+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 51% 1 B+ 66% 34 +11.1 2
2 Pt. Jumpers 38% 176 C+ 40% 113 -0.4 201
Three Pointers 31% 349 C 34% 167 -5.1 329
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.1 45 B +4.3 53
1st FG Attempt B+ 1.13 39
Second Chance A- 38.4% 16 C+ 1.06 129 B+ 0.41 28
Turnovers C+ 15.9% 113
Freethrows B 0.34 65 D 69% 300 C+ 0.24 127
Total Offense B+ +6.8 51

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 57% 55 C+ 10.3% 139
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 19% 272 B 2.8% 43
Three Pointers B+ 92% 32 C+ 0.7% 122
Total C+ 58% 122 C- 6.0% 224

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 302 B- 54% 75 -4.0 57
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 59 B+ 33% 32 +0.5 223
Three Pointers 41% 172 C- 35% 223 +0.6 217
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.8 57 B- -2.1 98
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 84
Second Chance A- 24.2% 16 C- 1.06 235 B 0.26 50
Turnovers B 19.4% 49
Freethrows B+ 0.25 30 A- 68% 14 B+ 0.17 20
Total Defense B+ +6.2 35

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 215 B- 14.4% 60
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 33% 309 D+ 3.2% 288
Three Pointers C+ 82% 32 C 1.0% 122
Total C- 58% 232 C+ 6.1% 135

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.9 48 18.4 326
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 59 0.11 28
Improvement -0.5 #214 -2.0 #289

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 1% 0%
Top 6 Seed 9% 20% 6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 89% 95% 87%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 89% 95% 87%
Average Seed 8.4 7.7 8.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 2% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four5% 1% 6%
First Round87% 95% 84%
Second Round41% 49% 38%
Sweet Sixteen8% 10% 7%
Elite Eight2% 3% 2%
Final Four0% 1% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Virginia (Away) - 24.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 15 - 6
Quad 26 - 111 - 8
Quad 34 - 114 - 8
Quad 410 - 024 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 310 Jacksonville W 86 - 69 98% +9  93% 1 - 0 B- +5 C +1 C A+ F B- +3 D- A B-
 Thu, Nov 6 244 Bethune-Cookman W 101 - 61 96% +20  98% 2 - 0 A+ +32 A+ +21 A+ D A+ A +10 A+ D D+
 Mon, Nov 10 325 Stetson W 102 - 61 98% +18  72% 3 - 0 A+ +27 B+ +8 A- D C A+ +15 A+ C+ B+
 Sun, Nov 16 4 Florida L 68 - 82 17% -7  5% 3 - 1 B +9 C- -1 C C- A- A+ +12 B- A+ B
 Thu, Nov 20 204 Elon W 99 - 72 95% +10  99% 4 - 1 A +21 A +13 B+ A+ B A- +7 F A A+
 Sun, Nov 23 361 Delaware St. W 97 - 41 99% +31  95% 5 - 1 A+ +36 A+ +16 A+ B- B+ A+ +20 B+ A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 21 BYU L 62 - 72 34% -3  37% 5 - 2 B- +7 D- -7 F B+ B A+ +14 B A+ A
 Fri, Nov 28 74 Georgetown W 78 - 65 69% +14  99% 6 - 2 A +21 A +11 A+ B F A +10 A+ F B+
 Tue, Dec 2 72 @Mississippi W 75 - 66 58% +8  86% 7 - 2 A +20 B+ +8 A+ A+ F A+ +12 A+ D+ B+
 Sat, Dec 6 245 Southern Miss W 88 - 64 96% +5  47% 8 - 2 A- +16 B +6 B- B+ D+ A +9 B- F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 354 Louisiana Monroe W 104 - 79 99% +12  99% 9 - 2 B- +8 A+ +18 A+ B- A F -10 F D+ D-
 Tue, Dec 16 191 Florida International W 98 - 81 94% +6  77% 10 - 2 B+ +12 A +13 A+ B- A C- -2 D+ C+ C+
 Sun, Dec 21 343 North Florida W 105 - 67 99% +18  92% 11 - 2 A +23 A- +10 A- B- D+ A +11 A D A+
 Tue, Dec 30 101 Pittsburgh W 76 - 69 85% -1  42% 12 - 2 1 - 0 B +9 B +6 F A+ B B +4 A- C F
 Wed, Jan 7 60 @Wake Forest W 81 - 77 54% -1  32% 13 - 2 2 - 0 A- +16 A +12 C A+ B- B +4 F+ A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 10 141 Georgia Tech W 91 - 81 91% +10  99% 14 - 2 3 - 0 B +8 A- +10 A C+ A C- -3 C B+ C+
 Tue, Jan 13 83 @Notre Dame W 81 - 69 62% +5  80% 15 - 2 4 - 0 A +22 A +13 A D+ A- A +10 B- C- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 38 @Clemson L 59 - 69 37% -9  0% 15 - 3 4 - 1 B- +7 C- -1 C B F A- +7 D- A+ A-
 Tue, Jan 20 85 Florida St. L 63 - 65 81% -0  40% 15 - 4 4 - 2 C+ +2 F -10 F B- C- A+ +12 C- A+ A
 Sat, Jan 24 70 @Syracuse W 85 - 76 58% +6  96% 16 - 4 5 - 2 A +20 A+ +15 A+ A+ F B +5 C+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 75 Stanford W 79 - 70 79% +1  59% 17 - 4 6 - 2 B+ +14 A- +10 A- B A+ B +4 B- D+ A
 Sat, Jan 31 71 California L 85 - 86 78% +2  54% 17 - 5 6 - 3 C+ +4 A+ +15 A A+ A+ F -11 C B F+
 Sat, Feb 7 137 @Boston College W 74 - 68 79% +4  95% 18 - 5 7 - 3 B +11 B- +5 A+ D+ D- B+ +6 A- C F
 Tue, Feb 10 31 North Carolina W 75 - 66 55% +4  93% 19 - 5 8 - 3 A +21 B- +5 B+ C B+ A+ +16 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Feb 14 24 @North Carolina St. W 77 - 76 29% -1  26% 20 - 5 9 - 3 A +20 A+ +15 C- A+ A+ B +5 C+ C+ B+
 Tue, Feb 17 57 Virginia Tech W 67 - 66 74% -1  30% 21 - 5 10 - 3 B- +7 C+ +2 D A+ B B +5 D A B
 Sat, Feb 21 22 @Virginia L 69 - 76 24%
 Tue, Feb 24 85 @Florida St. W 82 - 79 62%
 Sat, Feb 28 137 Boston College W 78 - 63 91%
 Wed, Mar 4 32 @SMU L 79 - 84 34%
 Sat, Mar 7 12 Louisville L 79 - 82 38%
Totals 23 - 8 12 - 6 +13 B+ +7 B- B B B+ +6 C D C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ B+ C+ C B 51% 38% 31% B B+ A- C+ B+ C+ B D C+ B+ B- B+ C- B- 34% 25% 41% B B- A- C- B B B+ A- B+
1.18 66% 40% 34% +4 +1 1.13 38% 1.1 .41 16% .34 69% .24 1.00 54% 33% 35% -2 -1 0.96 24% 1.1 .26 19% .25 68% .23
Nov
3		 Jacksonville C A C+ F D+ 61% 11% 27% A C B A+ A+ F A+ A A+ B- F B B D- 33% 17% 50% C- D- A+ F+ A B- B A+ A
1.17 74% 40% 17% +3 +3 1.14 35% 2.0 .70 20% .63 78% .49 0.94 72% 33% 30% +1 0 1.04 16% 1.2 .19 19% .23 50% .12
Nov
6		 Bethune-Cookman A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 61% 14% 25% A- A+ C+ F D A+ C D C- A A+ A+ A+ A+ 34% 25% 42% B A+ D+ D D D+ C C C
1.40 72% 38% 47% +13 +3 1.34 33% 0.9 .30 8% .33 68% .23 0.84 44% 23% 18% -18 -1 0.64 31% 1.1 .33 17% .32 68% .22
Nov
10		 Stetson B+ B+ A+ B- B+ 52% 12% 37% A- A- C F+ D C A+ D A A+ F A+ A A+ 20% 29% 51% A+ A+ A- F C+ B+ F A+ D-
1.29 71% 57% 36% +10 +2 1.27 32% 1.0 .32 15% .39 69% .27 0.77 70% 7% 27% -12 -2 0.73 19% 1.3 .24 22% .42 58% .24
Nov
16		 Florida C- F F A+ D+ 55% 26% 19% A C A F C- A- A+ F B A+ B- F B- B- 43% 6% 51% C- B- A+ A- A+ B F A- D-
0.89 41% 27% 45% -9 +1 0.84 31% 0.4 .12 13% .40 56% .22 1.07 59% 67% 31% 0 +2 1.06 31% 0.9 .28 18% .46 66% .30
Nov
20		 Elon A A- C- A B+ 44% 20% 35% C+ B+ A+ B+ A+ B A- C- B+ A- D+ B- F F 46% 13% 41% C+ F A+ F A A+ C- A+ B
1.35 67% 36% 42% +8 0 1.19 47% 1.3 .59 14% .36 70% .25 0.98 62% 33% 47% +9 +1 1.24 18% 1.2 .21 25% .33 56% .18
Nov
23		 Delaware St. A+ A+ F A+ A+ 45% 15% 40% C+ A+ B+ D+ B- B+ C- F F+ A+ A A B B+ 33% 36% 31% C B+ C- A+ A+ A+ D A+ B-
1.37 84% 25% 45% +17 +1 1.38 38% 1.1 .41 16% .32 58% .18 0.58 40% 25% 29% -13 -2 0.71 25% 0.1 .02 27% .33 53% .17
Nov
27		 BYU D- F C+ F F 51% 15% 34% A+ F B B- B+ B B+ F D- A+ A+ B F B+ 43% 23% 34% D+ B A+ A- A+ A D+ A+ C+
0.90 41% 38% 17% -18 +2 0.70 31% 1.2 .38 15% .29 41% .12 1.05 45% 36% 50% +2 0 1.06 27% 1.0 .27 19% .36 65% .23
Nov
28		 Georgetown A D- A+ A+ A+ 56% 22% 22% A A+ B+ C B F B- B- B A B A+ A+ A+ 33% 22% 46% C+ A+ F F F B+ F A D
1.20 48% 90% 60% +15 +1 1.33 36% 1.0 .36 23% .32 75% .24 1.00 53% 10% 24% -15 -1 0.72 40% 1.4 .55 17% .44 67% .30
Dec
2		 Mississippi B+ C- B- A+ A+ 44% 12% 44% A A+ A+ C A+ F C- D+ C- A+ A+ A+ D A+ 16% 40% 44% A A+ C- D+ D+ B+ A+ F+ A
1.12 53% 40% 47% +7 +2 1.19 50% 1.1 .53 28% .31 67% .21 0.98 33% 23% 38% -8 -4 0.78 32% 1.1 .36 16% .20 82% .16
Dec
6		 Southern Miss B A D- B- B- 45% 24% 31% C- B- A+ F B+ D+ B+ B- B+ A C A- A+ B 41% 30% 28% C- B- F+ F F A+ C+ A- B
1.19 70% 33% 38% +6 0 1.14 47% 0.8 .37 19% .40 71% .28 0.87 58% 29% 23% -8 -1 0.85 36% 1.3 .45 27% .35 68% .24
Dec
13		 Louisiana Monroe A+ A- A- A+ A 59% 3% 38% A+ A+ A D- B- A C+ F D F B- A+ F F 29% 18% 54% C F C+ F D+ D- A A+ A+
1.47 71% 50% 45% +14 +4 1.38 47% 1.0 .47 11% .27 53% .14 1.11 50% 20% 47% +5 0 1.11 23% 1.2 .28 14% .23 57% .13
Dec
16		 Florida International A A+ A+ D A+ 55% 9% 36% A A+ A D B- A A+ C- A+ C- D- F A+ D 43% 26% 30% B D+ D+ B+ C+ C+ D+ C+ C-
1.29 74% 80% 30% +11 +3 1.29 44% 0.9 .41 16% .49 71% .34 1.07 65% 50% 25% +2 0 1.06 35% 0.9 .32 18% .34 67% .23
Dec
21		 North Florida A- A A+ D- A 47% 16% 36% C+ A- A+ F B- D+ A+ C- A+ A A A+ C A+ 27% 14% 59% B A B F D A+ D- F F
1.40 73% 78% 30% +11 +1 1.27 50% 1.0 .50 13% .44 69% .31 0.89 46% 0% 34% -8 0 0.86 22% 1.5 .33 27% .29 88% .25
Dec
30		 Pittsburgh B B+ A- F F 38% 24% 38% D+ F A+ B+ A+ B A+ C+ A+ B D D+ A+ B+ 32% 26% 42% A A- A+ F C F C A+ B+
1.15 65% 45% 12% -8 -1 0.84 43% 1.1 .46 15% .46 77% .36 1.04 65% 43% 23% -4 -1 0.92 22% 1.6 .36 11% .29 53% .15
Jan
7		 Wake Forest A A+ B+ F C 49% 16% 36% B+ C A+ A+ A+ B- A+ B A+ B A+ F F F 27% 31% 41% A+ F+ A+ F A+ B+ A- B+ A
1.18 73% 43% 13% -4 +1 0.98 45% 1.3 .59 19% .54 77% .41 1.12 36% 63% 52% +13 -2 1.24 14% 1.8 .25 18% .25 71% .18
Jan
10		 Georgia Tech A- A+ F B A 35% 19% 46% B- A D A+ C+ A A+ D- A+ C- D- C F D 31% 45% 24% A+ C A- C B+ C+ F F F
1.22 78% 20% 38% +6 0 1.13 25% 1.4 .34 11% .48 66% .32 1.09 67% 36% 42% +5 -4 1.04 26% 1.1 .29 19% .45 85% .38
Jan
13		 Notre Dame A A+ A+ D A 37% 24% 39% C A C+ F D+ A- A- A- A A B- F B C+ 28% 28% 44% B+ B- D B- C- A+ D B D+
1.20 74% 50% 30% +6 0 1.14 26% 0.8 .19 12% .35 81% .28 1.02 58% 58% 32% +4 -2 1.07 38% 0.9 .34 27% .36 67% .24
Jan
17		 Clemson C- B- F D- C- 36% 19% 45% B C A C- B F C B C+ A- B F F D- 51% 15% 34% D+ D- A+ B- A+ A- A+ B- A+
0.91 59% 22% 29% -6 0 0.89 31% 0.9 .29 25% .29 79% .23 1.07 54% 57% 50% +9 +2 1.23 15% 1.0 .15 19% .19 70% .13
Jan
20		 Florida St. F C+ F F F 49% 24% 27% B- F D+ A+ B- C- C B- C A+ B- F+ D- D+ 41% 27% 33% A C- A+ A+ A+ A B C B
0.91 58% 17% 23% -9 0 0.84 26% 1.2 .31 20% .27 73% .20 0.94 55% 46% 38% +3 -1 1.06 13% 0.5 .07 19% .27 73% .20
Jan
24		 Syracuse A+ A- A A+ A+ 57% 19% 23% B+ A+ C+ A+ A+ F C- A C+ B C+ F B- C 43% 25% 32% B C+ A+ A A+ F A+ C- A
1.23 63% 44% 55% +11 +2 1.28 33% 1.6 .54 23% .28 80% .23 1.10 58% 57% 33% +5 0 1.11 15% 0.8 .12 9% .24 67% .16
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Stanford A- B C+ A A 51% 28% 21% B- A- A+ F B A+ A+ F A B A+ A+ F B- 41% 16% 43% B+ B- C D D+ A A+ A+ A+
1.18 63% 38% 40% +4 0 1.11 47% 0.7 .34 13% .54 61% .33 1.05 43% 25% 45% -1 +1 1.02 35% 1.1 .38 21% .19 50% .09
Jan
31		 California A+ A+ D+ D- A+ 44% 31% 24% D A D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ F F A+ F+ C- 26% 30% 44% A- C A- D+ B F+ F B- F
1.26 75% 36% 27% +4 -1 1.09 25% 2.1 .54 10% .55 70% .38 1.28 77% 27% 41% +6 -2 1.10 22% 1.1 .25 10% .53 75% .40
Feb
7		 Boston College B- A- D+ B A 58% 13% 29% A+ A+ C D- D+ D- A+ F B B+ B- A B A- 25% 29% 46% B+ A- A+ F C F A+ D- A
1.06 64% 33% 36% +4 +2 1.15 27% 0.8 .21 19% .44 52% .23 0.97 53% 29% 30% -7 -2 0.85 18% 1.7 .30 10% .16 70% .11
Feb
10		 North Carolina B- A+ D+ D- A- 44% 37% 19% C- B+ B+ D- C B+ A+ F A+ A+ B A B A+ 32% 25% 44% A- A+ A+ B A+ B+ A+ F A+
1.08 70% 32% 30% +2 -2 1.02 32% 0.8 .24 12% .37 61% .23 0.95 56% 29% 32% -4 -1 0.91 24% 1.0 .24 16% .17 80% .14
Feb
14		 North Carolina St. A+ B- D+ F D+ 61% 18% 22% B+ C- A+ B+ A+ A+ B+ F D+ B C+ D- D C+ 35% 18% 47% B C+ C+ C C+ B+ B+ F C+
1.19 58% 33% 18% -6 +2 0.94 49% 1.1 .54 14% .36 50% .18 1.17 59% 44% 39% +5 0 1.12 29% 1.3 .36 15% .27 87% .24
Feb
17		 Virginia Tech C+ B+ F F D 40% 30% 30% D+ D B A+ A+ B C+ D+ C B D+ C F D 40% 22% 38% C D A B A B A+ A A+
1.07 65% 27% 20% -7 -1 0.86 35% 1.5 .51 16% .25 69% .17 1.05 65% 36% 42% +7 0 1.16 26% 1.0 .26 18% .06 67% .04



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.4 1st
2nd 0.1 5.2 10.0 1.9 17.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 6.9 23.2 3.8 33.8 3rd
4th 0.6 17.7 4.3 22.6 4th
5th 4.0 8.9 0.2 13.0 5th
6th 0.2 7.6 0.9 8.7 6th
7th 0.6 2.9 3.5 7th
8th 0.6 0.2 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 1.4 15.2 34.5 32.8 13.9 2.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 14.6% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.1
14-4 0.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 2.2% 99.8% 7.3% 92.5% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-4 13.9% 98.6% 5.2% 93.4% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.2 5.0 3.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.5%
13-5 32.8% 95.1% 3.3% 91.8% 8.1 0.0 0.3 2.3 6.5 10.6 8.6 2.6 0.2 1.6 94.9%
12-6 34.5% 86.6% 1.9% 84.8% 9.0 0.0 0.5 1.9 7.0 10.2 8.0 2.2 0.0 4.6 86.4%
11-7 15.2% 74.3% 1.1% 73.2% 9.8 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.6 4.6 3.0 0.0 3.9 74.0%
10-8 1.4% 55.9% 0.4% 55.5% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 55.7%
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 89.1% 2.8% 86.3% 8.4 10.9 88.7%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 4.1 3.1 21.9 40.6 31.3 3.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 5.4 1.2 6.0 49.4 37.3 6.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 100.0% 6.0 3.8 24.6 40.8 28.5 1.5 0.8
Lose Out 0.6% 31.4% 10.8 7.6 23.7