Miami (FL)
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +12.9 #40
Expected Predictive Rating +14.6 #34
Pace 71.1 #120
Improvement -2.6 #296

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #50 B+ B C+ C B+
Defense #40 C+ B B+ B B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 51% #2 1.30 #45 +11.0 #2
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #248 0.85 #57 -0.5 #198
Three Pointers 32% #341 1.05 #130 -4.1 #316
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #31 +6.4 #33
Freethrows 0.33 #106 69% #294 0.23 #155
Second Chance 38.5% #14 1.03 #200 0.40 #44
Turnovers 15.2% #108
Total Offense +6.7 #50

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #301 1.08 #80 +3.9 #60
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #57 0.69 #76 -0.8 #245
Three Pointers 41% #192 1.06 #245 -0.8 #219
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #114 +2.2 #115
Freethrows 0.27 #77 66% #5 0.18 #40
Second Chance 24.5% #17 1.09 #258 0.27 #61
Turnovers 19.7% #34
Total Defense +6.2 #40

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.6% #29 -1.7% #54
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.6% #47 -2.7% #132
Possession Length 15.9 #49 18.4 #318
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #54 0.12 #41
Improvement -0.4 #204 -2.2 #303

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 6.7% 7.8% 2.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 77.3% 80.6% 66.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 76.6% 79.9% 66.0%
Average Seed 8.8 8.7 9.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.0% 99.3% 93.8%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.2% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four12.1% 11.2% 15.1%
First Round71.3% 75.1% 58.9%
Second Round33.9% 36.5% 25.7%
Sweet Sixteen7.4% 8.0% 5.3%
Elite Eight2.4% 2.7% 1.5%
Final Four0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: California (Home) - 76.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 14 - 7
Quad 26 - 110 - 8
Quad 34 - 115 - 9
Quad 49 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 285 Jacksonville W 86 - 69 97% +9  1 - 0 +7 +5 C A+ F +1 D+ A- B
 Thu, Nov 6 248 Bethune-Cookman W 101 - 61 96% +20  2 - 0 +32 +22 A+ D A+ +9 A+ D C
 Mon, Nov 10 329 Stetson W 102 - 61 98% +18  3 - 0 +28 +11 A- D+ C +12 A+ C B+
 Sun, Nov 16 5 Florida L 68 - 82 22% -7  3 - 1 +7 -0 C C- B +9 C+ A+ B
 Thu, Nov 20 193 Elon W 99 - 72 94% +10  4 - 1 +22 +16 B+ A+ B- +5 F+ A A+
 Sun, Nov 23 357 Delaware St. W 97 - 41 99% +31  5 - 1 +39 +20 A+ B- B+ +18 B- A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 14 BYU L 62 - 72 29% -3  5 - 2 +9 -2 F+ B B +10 B- A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 89 Georgetown W 78 - 65 73% +14  6 - 2 +19 +14 A+ B- F +7 A+ F B+
 Tue, Dec 2 64 @Mississippi W 75 - 66 54% +8  7 - 2 +21 +12 A+ A+ F +9 A+ C- B+
 Sat, Dec 6 259 Southern Miss W 88 - 64 97% +5  8 - 2 +16 +8 C+ B D +6 C+ D- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 361 Louisiana Monroe W 104 - 79 99% +12  9 - 2 +6 +21 A+ B A- -15 F D F+
 Tue, Dec 16 190 Florida International W 98 - 81 94% +6  10 - 2 +12 +16 A+ C+ A -5 D+ C+ B
 Sun, Dec 21 348 North Florida W 105 - 67 99% +18  11 - 2 +23 +12 A- C+ C- +8 A+ D+ A+
 Tue, Dec 30 92 Pittsburgh W 76 - 69 83% -1  12 - 2 1 - 0 +10 +8 F+ A+ B- +2 A- C F
 Wed, Jan 7 68 @Wake Forest W 81 - 77 56% -1  13 - 2 2 - 0 +15 +16 C A+ B -1 F A+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 111 Georgia Tech W 91 - 81 87% +10  14 - 2 3 - 0 +11 +15 A+ C+ A -5 C B B
 Tue, Jan 13 81 @Notre Dame W 81 - 69 61% +5  15 - 2 4 - 0 +22 +16 A+ D+ B+ +6 C+ C- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 32 @Clemson L 59 - 69 34% -9  15 - 3 4 - 1 +7 +2 C B- F +5 D A+ A-
 Tue, Jan 20 105 Florida St. L 63 - 65 86% -0  15 - 4 4 - 2 -1 -8 F+ C C- +8 D+ A+ A
 Sat, Jan 24 76 @Syracuse W 85 - 76 59% +6  16 - 4 5 - 2 +20 +18 A+ A+ F+ +1 C- A+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 84 Stanford W 79 - 70 81% +1  17 - 4 6 - 2 +13 +12 A B- A+ +1 C+ C- A+
 Sat, Jan 31 69 California W 78 - 70 76%
 Sat, Feb 7 132 @Boston College W 74 - 66 78%
 Tue, Feb 10 28 North Carolina W 80 - 79 55%
 Sat, Feb 14 24 @North Carolina St. L 75 - 81 29%
 Tue, Feb 17 59 Virginia Tech W 79 - 72 73%
 Sat, Feb 21 22 @Virginia L 71 - 78 27%
 Tue, Feb 24 105 @Florida St. W 83 - 78 70%
 Sat, Feb 28 132 Boston College W 77 - 63 91%
 Wed, Mar 4 37 @SMU L 78 - 82 36%
 Sat, Mar 7 19 Louisville L 79 - 81 44%
Totals 23 - 8 12 - 6 +13 +7 B+ B C+ +6 C+ B B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.9 1st
2nd 0.4 3.9 6.2 2.6 0.2 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.1 9.2 3.2 0.2 16.8 3rd
4th 0.0 2.0 10.2 5.7 0.5 0.0 18.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 7.6 7.9 0.9 0.0 16.9 5th
6th 0.1 3.5 9.1 1.5 0.0 14.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 5.5 2.9 0.1 9.5 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 3.0 0.2 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.3 2.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.4 12.9 22.0 24.2 19.7 10.1 3.3 0.4 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 47.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-3 14.3% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 2.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.4% 100.0% 9.3% 90.7% 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.3% 100.0% 6.9% 93.1% 6.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 10.1% 97.7% 6.0% 91.7% 7.2 0.1 0.7 1.7 3.3 2.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 97.6%
13-5 19.7% 94.0% 5.1% 88.9% 8.3 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.2 5.7 5.2 2.6 0.4 1.2 93.7%
12-6 24.2% 85.2% 2.9% 82.3% 9.2 0.0 0.3 1.2 4.0 6.5 6.3 2.2 0.0 3.6 84.8%
11-7 22.0% 72.1% 2.2% 70.0% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 3.3 6.5 4.1 0.0 6.1 71.5%
10-8 12.9% 52.7% 1.2% 51.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.5 3.3 0.0 6.1 52.1%
9-9 5.4% 32.8% 0.7% 32.0% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.0 3.6 32.3%
8-10 1.8% 10.1% 0.6% 9.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.6 9.6%
7-11 0.2% 10.9% 2.2% 8.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.9%
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 77.3% 3.3% 74.1% 8.8 22.7 76.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 4.2 32.0 32.0 24.0 12.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 5.4 19.0 38.1 28.6 14.3