Pittsburgh
Atlantic Coast
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.4#64
Expected Predictive Rating+11.0#47
Pace67.0#217
Improvement+1.0#63

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#62
First Shot+5.1#43
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#210
Layup/Dunks-2.9#298
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#81
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#27
Freethrows+1.5#64
Improvement+0.4#113

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#74
First Shot+3.2#78
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#130
Layups/Dunks+1.1#133
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#205
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#223
Freethrows+2.8#19
Improvement+0.6#85
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.7% 1.8% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.3% 41.3% 25.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 37.2% 38.3% 22.1%
Average Seed 9.5 9.5 10.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 17.2% 18.1% 4.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four11.4% 11.5% 10.0%
First Round33.6% 34.7% 18.9%
Second Round12.6% 13.1% 6.5%
Sweet Sixteen3.1% 3.2% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.9% 1.0% 0.4%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisville (Home) - 93.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 22 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 3
Quad 23 - 48 - 7
Quad 33 - 111 - 9
Quad 410 - 121 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 296   Tennessee Martin W 80-58 95%     1 - 0 +12.1 -6.6 +16.3
  Nov 11, 2022 23   West Virginia L 56-81 41%     1 - 1 -14.2 -10.3 -4.9
  Nov 16, 2022 58   Michigan L 60-91 48%     1 - 2 -22.0 -6.1 -17.5
  Nov 17, 2022 74   Virginia Commonwealth L 67-71 55%     1 - 3 +3.1 -1.4 +4.6
  Nov 20, 2022 353   Alabama St. W 73-54 98%     2 - 3 +2.9 -4.2 +7.6
  Nov 22, 2022 307   Fairleigh Dickinson W 83-61 95%     3 - 3 +11.3 +1.1 +10.4
  Nov 25, 2022 305   William & Mary W 80-64 95%     4 - 3 +5.4 +5.6 +0.9
  Nov 28, 2022 50   @ Northwestern W 87-58 34%     5 - 3 +41.6 +29.8 +14.3
  Dec 02, 2022 37   @ North Carolina St. W 68-60 29%     6 - 3 1 - 0 +22.2 +1.0 +21.2
  Dec 07, 2022 97   @ Vanderbilt L 74-75 53%     6 - 4 +6.6 +4.3 +2.3
  Dec 10, 2022 323   Sacred Heart W 91-66 96%     7 - 4 +13.1 +6.2 +5.3
  Dec 17, 2022 282   North Florida W 82-56 94%     8 - 4 +16.7 +2.7 +14.7
  Dec 20, 2022 75   @ Syracuse W 84-82 45%     9 - 4 2 - 0 +11.7 +10.5 +1.1
  Dec 30, 2022 26   North Carolina W 76-74 43%     10 - 4 3 - 0 +12.2 +5.6 +6.6
  Jan 03, 2023 16   Virginia W 68-65 38%     11 - 4 4 - 0 +14.5 +10.3 +4.6
  Jan 07, 2023 60   Clemson L 74-75 59%     11 - 5 4 - 1 +5.1 +9.9 -4.9
  Jan 11, 2023 24   @ Duke L 69-77 24%     11 - 6 4 - 2 +8.0 +3.1 +5.0
  Jan 14, 2023 172   @ Georgia Tech W 71-60 71%     12 - 6 5 - 2 +13.7 +9.0 +5.9
  Jan 18, 2023 248   @ Louisville W 75-54 83%     13 - 6 6 - 2 +19.2 +5.6 +14.5
  Jan 21, 2023 140   Florida St. L 64-71 81%     13 - 7 6 - 3 -8.1 -5.5 -3.2
  Jan 25, 2023 67   Wake Forest W 81-79 61%     14 - 7 7 - 3 +7.5 +10.7 -3.0
  Jan 28, 2023 34   Miami (FL) W 71-68 46%     15 - 7 8 - 3 +12.4 +0.0 +12.4
  Feb 01, 2023 26   @ North Carolina W 65-64 24%     16 - 7 9 - 3 +16.6 +4.1 +12.6
  Feb 07, 2023 248   Louisville W 77-61 93%    
  Feb 11, 2023 140   @ Florida St. W 74-70 64%    
  Feb 14, 2023 144   Boston College W 71-61 82%    
  Feb 18, 2023 49   @ Virginia Tech L 68-72 34%    
  Feb 21, 2023 172   Georgia Tech W 73-62 86%    
  Feb 25, 2023 75   Syracuse W 73-69 67%    
  Mar 01, 2023 127   @ Notre Dame W 72-69 62%    
  Mar 04, 2023 34   @ Miami (FL) L 71-77 27%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 6.8 7.6 1.9 17.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 9.7 15.9 3.9 0.2 30.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 4.3 14.5 3.6 0.1 22.6 3rd
4th 0.8 9.2 4.4 0.1 14.6 4th
5th 0.1 3.1 5.6 0.2 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.1 0.7 0.0 4.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.0 1.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.8 7.8 20.3 29.7 26.4 11.6 2.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 89.4% 1.9    1.3 0.6 0.0
16-4 65.3% 7.6    2.9 3.9 0.8 0.0
15-5 26.0% 6.8    0.7 2.7 2.6 0.8 0.1
14-6 2.8% 0.8    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.2% 17.2 5.0 7.2 3.6 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 2.1% 98.0% 4.7% 93.4% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.9%
16-4 11.6% 81.5% 6.0% 75.5% 8.5 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.2 3.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 2.1 80.3%
15-5 26.4% 55.2% 5.4% 49.8% 9.7 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.1 5.9 2.7 0.0 11.8 52.7%
14-6 29.7% 32.9% 4.7% 28.2% 10.4 0.2 0.9 4.0 4.5 0.1 20.0 29.6%
13-7 20.3% 17.8% 4.5% 13.4% 10.7 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.4 0.2 0.0 16.7 14.0%
12-8 7.8% 8.4% 3.7% 4.7% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 7.1 4.9%
11-9 1.8% 3.9% 2.5% 1.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.4%
10-10 0.2% 2.0% 2.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
9-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 40.3% 4.9% 35.4% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.9 5.1 8.3 12.4 10.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 59.7 37.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.1% 98.0% 6.0 1.0 5.2 23.6 39.3 24.5 4.1 0.3