Pittsburgh
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.8 #94
Expected Predictive Rating +2.5 #124
Pace 62.5 #335
Improvement -0.2 #198

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #90 C+ B- C+ D+ C+
Defense #104 C+ B C C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #173 1.20 #116 +1.1 #138
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #244 0.81 #98 -0.8 #223
Three Pointers 44% #129 1.02 #178 +1.5 #129
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #125 +1.7 #125
Freethrows 0.29 #244 67% #336 0.19 #288
Second Chance 36.3% #40 1.01 #199 0.37 #78
Turnovers 16.4% #143
Total Offense +3.4 #90

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #151 1.09 #86 +0.7 #151
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #192 0.75 #172 +0.2 #174
Three Pointers 40% #216 1.02 #183 +0.5 #159
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #134 +1.4 #135
Freethrows 0.29 #139 76% #344 0.22 #183
Second Chance 26.1% #41 0.94 #69 0.25 #36
Turnovers 17.3% #160
Total Defense +2.4 #104

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #131 0.3% #191
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.5% #129 -2.9% #123
Possession Length 18.4 #299 17.9 #289
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #112 0.16 #137
Improvement -0.5 #208 +0.2 #173

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.5% 1.3% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 0.2% 0.7% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 30.2% 13.3% 38.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SMU (Home) - 32.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 61 - 12
Quad 23 - 44 - 16
Quad 33 - 37 - 19
Quad 45 - 112 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 197 Youngstown St. W 74 - 59 85% +3  1 - 0 +10 +4 D A+ F +7 C+ A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 7 260 Longwood W 78 - 60 91% +5  2 - 0 +9 +2 C C+ D+ +8 A+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 10 230 Eastern Michigan W 78 - 66 88% +11  3 - 0 +5 +5 C+ C+ A+ +0 A- B- D-
 Thu, Nov 13 55 @West Virginia L 49 - 71 25% -9  3 - 1 -9 -10 C+ F C- -2 B A- F
 Mon, Nov 17 313 Bucknell W 84 - 50 94% +17  4 - 1 +22 +13 A A- D+ +12 A+ A+ A-
 Thu, Nov 20 47 Central Florida L 67 - 77 30% -5  4 - 2 +1 +5 D+ B+ D+ -5 B- F B
 Sun, Nov 23 190 Quinnipiac L 75 - 83 84% -5  4 - 3 -13 +3 B B F -16 F C A
 Fri, Nov 28 36 Ohio St. W 67 - 66 31% +4  5 - 3 +12 +2 C F A+ +10 A+ A- A-
 Tue, Dec 2 27 Texas A&M L 73 - 81 26% -4  5 - 4 +5 +11 C+ A+ A- -7 B D+ D+
 Sun, Dec 7 122 Hofstra L 73 - 80 73% -7  5 - 5 -8 +9 A+ F+ D+ -17 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 31 @Villanova L 61 - 79 14% -6  5 - 6 -0 +9 D A+ C -13 D B+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 361 Binghamton W 103 - 63 98% +21  6 - 6 +21 +19 A+ F+ F+ +1 F B+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 114 Penn St. W 80 - 46 60% +16  7 - 6 +37 +12 B+ C- A+ +28 A+ A+ A
 Tue, Dec 30 40 @Miami (FL) L 69 - 76 18% +1  7 - 7 0 - 1 +9 +7 C- B+ A+ +1 A+ D C-
 Sat, Jan 3 37 Clemson L 68 - 73 31% -2  7 - 8 0 - 2 +6 +6 B- B- B +0 D- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 69 Syracuse L 72 - 83 52% -11  7 - 9 0 - 3 -6 +5 C+ B- B- -12 F D+ C+
 Wed, Jan 14 113 @Georgia Tech W 89 - 66 48% +15  8 - 9 1 - 3 +29 +24 A+ A+ B +6 B+ C+ A-
 Sat, Jan 17 16 Louisville L 59 - 100 20% -27  8 - 10 1 - 4 -26 -3 C- C B+ -26 F F D-
 Wed, Jan 21 125 @Boston College L 62 - 65 52% -1  8 - 11 1 - 5 +2 +2 D+ A- A -0 C- B- D+
 Sat, Jan 24 23 North Carolina St. L 72 - 81 23% +1  8 - 12 1 - 6 +5 +6 F+ A+ C+ -2 B+ A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 27 75 Wake Forest W 80 - 76 OT 54% -3  9 - 12 2 - 6 +9 +7 D A A+ +1 B- A+ B
 Sat, Jan 31 37 @Clemson L 52 - 63 15% -10  9 - 13 2 - 7 +6 +2 C B F +1 A- F A-
 Tue, Feb 3 22 @Virginia L 47 - 67 10% -10  9 - 14 2 - 8 -0 -10 C- D+ F +6 B- A- B-
 Sat, Feb 7 39 SMU L 73 - 78 33%
 Tue, Feb 10 3 Duke L 62 - 77 8%
 Sat, Feb 14 29 @North Carolina L 68 - 81 12%
 Sat, Feb 21 81 Notre Dame W 70 - 68 57%
 Wed, Feb 25 82 @Stanford L 69 - 73 36%
 Sat, Feb 28 65 @California L 68 - 74 30%
 Wed, Mar 4 100 Florida St. W 77 - 73 65%
 Sat, Mar 7 69 @Syracuse L 69 - 74 30%
Totals 12 - 19 5 - 13 +6 +3 C+ B- C+ +2 C+ B C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 0.2 0.1 0.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 0.8 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 1.4 3.5 0.3 5.2 11th
12th 0.2 5.4 2.0 0.1 7.6 12th
13th 2.6 7.1 0.4 10.2 13th
14th 0.3 8.2 3.4 0.0 11.9 14th
15th 0.1 3.3 11.0 0.7 15.1 15th
16th 0.0 1.3 11.9 4.5 0.1 17.7 16th
17th 0.6 6.8 9.1 0.5 16.9 17th
18th 3.2 7.2 1.7 0.0 12.1 18th
Total 3.8 15.3 26.3 27.1 18.0 7.4 2.0 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.2% 0.2
8-10 2.0% 2.0
7-11 7.4% 7.4
6-12 18.0% 18.0
5-13 27.1% 27.1
4-14 26.3% 26.3
3-15 15.3% 15.3
2-16 3.8% 3.8
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.8%