Pittsburgh
Atlantic Coast
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#200
Expected Predictive Rating-7.4#278
Pace63.9#307
Improvement+2.4#34

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#244
First Shot-2.6#256
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#156
Layup/Dunks+4.7#44
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#215
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#339
Freethrows-0.3#203
Improvement+2.1#26

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#150
First Shot-1.4#230
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#63
Layups/Dunks+0.0#197
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#84
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#339
Freethrows+2.6#34
Improvement+0.3#148
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 n/a 14.0
.500 or above 0.7% 2.0% 0.6%
.500 or above in Conference 1.4% 5.1% 1.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 61.3% 36.1% 63.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia (Away) - 6.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 51 - 10
Quad 21 - 72 - 17
Quad 33 - 55 - 22
Quad 43 - 28 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 238   The Citadel L 63-78 69%     0 - 1 -21.9 -14.0 -8.4
  Nov 12, 2021 45   @ West Virginia L 59-74 9%     0 - 2 -2.1 -6.8 +4.4
  Nov 16, 2021 283   UNC Wilmington W 59-51 77%     1 - 2 -1.4 -13.2 +12.4
  Nov 19, 2021 164   Towson W 63-59 54%     2 - 2 +1.2 -3.7 +5.3
  Nov 24, 2021 77   Vanderbilt L 52-68 29%     2 - 3 -12.1 -11.1 -3.1
  Nov 27, 2021 211   Maryland Baltimore Co. L 77-87 63%     2 - 4 -15.1 -0.3 -14.7
  Nov 30, 2021 94   Minnesota L 53-54 33%     2 - 5 +1.8 -7.0 +8.6
  Dec 03, 2021 40   @ Virginia L 49-64 6%    
  Dec 09, 2021 111   Colgate L 70-72 42%    
  Dec 12, 2021 135   Monmouth L 69-70 46%    
  Dec 18, 2021 61   @ St. John's L 66-78 13%    
  Dec 21, 2021 257   Jacksonville W 65-58 72%    
  Dec 28, 2021 63   Notre Dame L 64-70 29%    
  Jan 01, 2022 27   @ Virginia Tech L 55-73 5%    
  Jan 05, 2022 36   @ Louisville L 57-73 7%    
  Jan 08, 2022 125   Boston College L 63-64 44%    
  Jan 11, 2022 71   @ Syracuse L 65-77 14%    
  Jan 15, 2022 36   Louisville L 60-70 18%    
  Jan 19, 2022 40   Virginia L 52-61 19%    
  Jan 22, 2022 50   @ Clemson L 56-70 11%    
  Jan 25, 2022 71   Syracuse L 68-74 30%    
  Jan 29, 2022 125   @ Boston College L 60-67 25%    
  Feb 02, 2022 81   @ Wake Forest L 62-74 15%    
  Feb 05, 2022 27   Virginia Tech L 58-70 15%    
  Feb 09, 2022 31   @ Florida St. L 59-76 6%    
  Feb 12, 2022 64   North Carolina St. L 64-70 28%    
  Feb 16, 2022 43   @ North Carolina L 66-81 9%    
  Feb 19, 2022 88   Georgia Tech L 63-68 32%    
  Feb 22, 2022 120   Miami (FL) L 67-69 43%    
  Mar 01, 2022 5   Duke L 61-77 7%    
  Mar 05, 2022 63   @ Notre Dame L 61-73 14%    
Projected Record 8 - 23 4 - 16





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.7 7th
8th 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 1.6 0.3 2.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.8 0.0 3.7 11th
12th 0.2 1.3 3.2 2.1 0.3 7.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 2.6 5.1 3.1 0.6 0.0 12.1 13th
14th 0.2 2.0 6.3 8.1 5.3 0.8 0.1 22.7 14th
15th 4.1 10.5 15.0 11.5 5.4 1.2 0.1 47.8 15th
Total 4.1 10.7 17.0 18.4 16.3 13.0 8.3 5.5 3.6 1.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.3
11-9 0.4% 0.4
10-10 0.7% 3.2% 3.2% 11.0 0.0 0.7
9-11 1.7% 1.7
8-12 3.6% 3.6
7-13 5.5% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 5.4
6-14 8.3% 8.3
5-15 13.0% 13.0
4-16 16.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.3
3-17 18.4% 18.4
2-18 17.0% 17.0
1-19 10.7% 10.7
0-20 4.1% 4.1
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%