Pittsburgh
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.0 #85
Expected Predictive Rating +1.9 #139
Pace 63.3 #328
Improvement +3.4 #29

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #75 B C- C C+ C
Defense #93 B- C- A- C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #201 1.22 #112 +0.5 #157
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #215 0.82 #106 -0.2 #184
Three Pointers 44% #132 1.10 #76 +3.5 #78
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #79 +3.9 #79
Freethrows 17.2 #197 67% #321 11.5 #249
Second Chance 35.0% #67 0.96 #273 0.34 #140
Turnovers 16.0% #140
Total Offense +4.3 #75

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #146 1.07 #77 +0.9 #150
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #186 0.78 #215 -0.2 #202
Three Pointers 40% #218 0.96 #133 +1.6 #123
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #109 +2.4 #109
Freethrows 17.9 #214 76% #309 13.6 #109
Second Chance 25.8% #37 0.92 #46 0.24 #25
Turnovers 16.4% #199
Total Defense +2.6 #93

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.4% #166 0.3% #189
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.2% #77 -5.0% #101
Possession Length 18.5 #306 17.5 #226
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #180 0.17 #154
Improvement +2.3 #44 +1.1 #110

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 2.7% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.7% 2.5% 0.7%
Average Seed 10.1 10.0 10.4
.500 or above 17.7% 25.0% 8.1%
.500 or above in Conference 15.8% 22.6% 6.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.1% 5.6% 16.0%
First Four0.8% 1.1% 0.4%
First Round1.5% 2.1% 0.5%
Second Round0.6% 0.9% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Syracuse (Home) - 57.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 10
Quad 24 - 56 - 16
Quad 33 - 29 - 18
Quad 45 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 195 Youngstown St. W 74-59 87%     3.1   1 - 0 +9.7 +4.7 +6.0
  Fri, Nov 7 275 Longwood W 78-60 93%     5.2   2 - 0 +8.6 +0.1 +8.5
  Mon, Nov 10 196 Eastern Michigan W 78-66 87%     11.0   3 - 0 +6.7 +4.5 +2.3
  Thu, Nov 13 65 @West Virginia L 49-71 33%     -8.9   3 - 1 -10.5 -11.5 -1.5
  Mon, Nov 17 312 Bucknell W 84-50 95%     20.3   4 - 1 +22.3 +15.0 +10.0
  Thu, Nov 20 49 Central Florida L 67-77 36%     -5.3   4 - 2 +0.6 +5.4 -6.0
  Sun, Nov 23 161 Quinnipiac L 75-83 83%     -5.2   4 - 3 -11.3 +3.8 -15.2
  Fri, Nov 28 34 Ohio St. W 67-66 36%     4.0   5 - 3 +11.6 +2.1 +9.5
  Tue, Dec 2 40 Texas A&M L 73-81 40%     -4.3   5 - 4 +1.7 +9.7 -8.7
  Sun, Dec 7 113 Hofstra L 73-80 73%     -7.2   5 - 5 -6.3 +10.1 -17.3
  Sat, Dec 13 28 @Villanova L 61-79 16%     -6.1   5 - 6 -0.3 +9.4 -13.4
  Wed, Dec 17 362 Binghamton W 103-63 98%     21.4   6 - 6 +20.6 +17.3 +2.4
  Sun, Dec 21 110 Penn St. W 80-46 60%     15.9   7 - 6 +38.3 +14.4 +26.6
  Tue, Dec 30 36 @Miami (FL) L 69-76 19%     0.8   7 - 7 0 - 1 +9.3 +8.4 +0.4
  Sat, Jan 3 39 Clemson L 68-73 39%     -1.7   7 - 8 0 - 2 +4.8 +4.0 +0.5
  Sat, Jan 10 71 Syracuse W 72-70 57%    
  Wed, Jan 14 114 @Georgia Tech W 72-71 52%    
  Sat, Jan 17 15 Louisville L 72-80 24%    
  Wed, Jan 21 153 @Boston College W 69-65 65%    
  Sat, Jan 24 32 North Carolina St. L 71-75 36%    
  Tue, Jan 27 60 Wake Forest W 73-72 53%    
  Sat, Jan 31 39 @Clemson L 63-72 20%    
  Tue, Feb 3 25 @Virginia L 65-76 15%    
  Sat, Feb 7 29 SMU L 73-77 34%    
  Tue, Feb 10 6 Duke L 67-78 15%    
  Sat, Feb 14 26 @North Carolina L 66-77 15%    
  Sat, Feb 21 61 Notre Dame W 68-67 53%    
  Wed, Feb 25 81 @Stanford L 70-73 39%    
  Sat, Feb 28 78 @California L 70-73 38%    
  Wed, Mar 4 108 Florida St. W 80-74 70%    
  Sat, Mar 7 71 @Syracuse L 69-73 35%    
Projected Record 13 - 18 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.1 1.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.3 2.6 7th
8th 0.3 2.2 1.3 0.0 3.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.5 2.9 0.4 4.8 9th
10th 0.7 3.6 1.7 0.0 6.1 10th
11th 0.2 3.1 3.9 0.5 7.7 11th
12th 0.0 1.6 5.9 1.8 0.0 9.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 5.1 4.7 0.4 10.9 13th
14th 0.3 3.3 6.8 1.8 0.1 12.1 14th
15th 0.2 2.2 6.8 3.3 0.2 12.6 15th
16th 0.1 1.4 5.5 4.2 0.6 0.0 11.7 16th
17th 0.1 1.1 3.6 3.6 0.7 0.0 9.1 17th
18th 0.1 0.9 1.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.9 18th
Total 0.1 1.0 3.1 6.7 12.0 15.7 17.5 16.5 11.5 8.2 4.5 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0%
14-4 25.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 6.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.2% 81.3% 81.3% 9.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 81.3%
12-6 0.9% 52.6% 4.0% 48.6% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 50.6%
11-7 2.0% 26.9% 1.0% 25.9% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.5 26.2%
10-8 4.5% 10.1% 1.0% 9.1% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 4.0 9.2%
9-9 8.2% 1.8% 0.4% 1.4% 10.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.0 1.4%
8-10 11.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 11.5 0.1%
7-11 16.5% 0.1% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 16.5
6-12 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 17.5
5-13 15.7% 15.7
4-14 12.0% 12.0
3-15 6.7% 6.7
2-16 3.1% 3.1
1-17 1.0% 1.0
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.9% 0.2% 1.7% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 98.1 1.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%