North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.6#12
Expected Predictive Rating+14.6#29
Pace72.2#107
Improvement+0.6#130

Offense
Total Offense+9.6#11
First Shot+7.0#27
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#50
Layup/Dunks+1.8#112
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#94
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#190
Freethrows+3.6#26
Improvement+0.0#185

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#33
First Shot+3.8#76
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#43
Layups/Dunks+4.8#37
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#331
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#125
Freethrows+0.3#175
Improvement+0.6#118
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.1% 3.1% 0.7%
#1 Seed 9.7% 12.9% 5.6%
Top 2 Seed 22.7% 29.3% 14.2%
Top 4 Seed 50.2% 59.4% 38.5%
Top 6 Seed 69.8% 78.4% 58.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.4% 95.8% 88.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 90.6% 94.8% 85.7%
Average Seed 4.7 4.2 5.3
.500 or above 97.9% 99.4% 96.0%
.500 or above in Conference 95.2% 96.5% 93.5%
Conference Champion 25.0% 28.9% 20.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four2.7% 1.8% 3.9%
First Round91.1% 95.0% 86.1%
Second Round72.8% 78.8% 65.1%
Sweet Sixteen42.1% 47.7% 35.0%
Elite Eight21.8% 25.6% 17.0%
Final Four10.8% 13.2% 7.7%
Championship Game5.0% 6.2% 3.6%
National Champion2.7% 3.5% 1.7%

Next Game: Tennessee (Home) - 55.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 7
Quad 26 - 113 - 8
Quad 35 - 018 - 9
Quad 44 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 161   Radford W 86-70 95%     1 - 0 +13.2 +10.8 +2.1
  Nov 12, 2023 267   Lehigh W 90-68 98%     2 - 0 +13.4 +7.0 +4.7
  Nov 17, 2023 228   UC Riverside W 77-52 97%     3 - 0 +18.8 +1.6 +17.3
  Nov 22, 2023 110   Northern Iowa W 91-69 86%     4 - 0 +26.0 +15.3 +9.7
  Nov 23, 2023 16   Villanova L 81-83 OT 51%     4 - 1 +13.4 +9.5 +4.1
  Nov 24, 2023 52   Arkansas W 87-72 71%     5 - 1 +24.8 +17.5 +7.2
  Nov 29, 2023 8   Tennessee W 72-70 56%    
  Dec 02, 2023 65   Florida St. W 83-73 83%    
  Dec 05, 2023 4   Connecticut L 74-77 39%    
  Dec 16, 2023 9   Kentucky L 80-81 47%    
  Dec 20, 2023 22   Oklahoma W 74-72 59%    
  Dec 29, 2023 353   Charleston Southern W 90-58 99.8%   
  Jan 02, 2024 53   @ Pittsburgh W 79-76 61%    
  Jan 06, 2024 35   @ Clemson W 77-76 53%    
  Jan 10, 2024 71   @ North Carolina St. W 80-75 68%    
  Jan 13, 2024 75   Syracuse W 84-72 86%    
  Jan 17, 2024 155   Louisville W 85-67 95%    
  Jan 20, 2024 105   @ Boston College W 80-71 77%    
  Jan 22, 2024 78   Wake Forest W 85-73 85%    
  Jan 27, 2024 65   @ Florida St. W 80-76 64%    
  Jan 30, 2024 118   @ Georgia Tech W 80-71 79%    
  Feb 03, 2024 6   Duke W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 06, 2024 35   Clemson W 80-73 72%    
  Feb 10, 2024 36   @ Miami (FL) W 81-80 54%    
  Feb 13, 2024 75   @ Syracuse W 81-75 71%    
  Feb 17, 2024 62   Virginia Tech W 82-72 81%    
  Feb 24, 2024 44   @ Virginia W 66-64 57%    
  Feb 26, 2024 36   Miami (FL) W 84-77 74%    
  Mar 02, 2024 71   North Carolina St. W 83-72 84%    
  Mar 05, 2024 159   Notre Dame W 80-62 94%    
  Mar 09, 2024 6   @ Duke L 72-77 32%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.2 5.0 7.5 6.2 2.8 0.7 25.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 3.8 8.1 6.9 3.4 0.5 0.0 23.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.8 6.3 3.8 1.3 0.1 16.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.9 3.0 0.5 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.2 1.2 3.7 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 7.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 2.8 2.1 0.5 0.0 6.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 1.7 0.6 0.0 4.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 1.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.4 2.5 4.5 6.6 9.5 11.5 14.0 14.8 13.2 11.0 6.7 2.8 0.7 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
19-1 99.9% 2.8    2.7 0.1
18-2 93.2% 6.2    5.4 0.8 0.0
17-3 68.0% 7.5    4.8 2.4 0.3
16-4 37.9% 5.0    2.2 2.4 0.4 0.1
15-5 15.1% 2.2    0.5 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.6% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 25.0% 25.0 16.4 6.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.7% 100.0% 42.4% 57.6% 1.2 0.6 0.2 100.0%
19-1 2.8% 100.0% 33.1% 66.9% 1.3 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 6.7% 100.0% 34.1% 65.9% 1.7 3.3 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 11.0% 100.0% 24.6% 75.4% 2.3 2.6 4.0 3.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 13.2% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 3.0 1.0 3.5 4.3 3.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 14.8% 100.0% 18.7% 81.3% 3.9 0.2 1.9 4.2 4.0 2.5 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 14.0% 99.7% 17.7% 82.0% 4.9 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.5 3.8 2.6 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-7 11.5% 97.5% 17.2% 80.3% 6.3 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.6 2.5 2.4 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 97.0%
12-8 9.5% 94.9% 13.9% 80.9% 7.5 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.3 2.1 1.8 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.5 94.1%
11-9 6.6% 81.8% 9.2% 72.6% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.0 1.2 79.9%
10-10 4.5% 58.3% 4.3% 54.1% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.9 56.5%
9-11 2.5% 34.2% 5.6% 28.6% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 30.3%
8-12 1.4% 10.0% 2.1% 7.9% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 8.1%
7-13 0.4% 14.0% 13.4% 0.6% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6%
6-14 0.3% 1.2% 1.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
5-15 0.1% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 92.4% 18.4% 74.0% 4.7 9.7 13.0 14.5 13.0 11.1 8.5 7.6 5.2 4.0 3.1 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.6 90.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 80.7 19.3