North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.8#17
Expected Predictive Rating+10.0#63
Pace80.9#6
Improvement-2.3#316

Offense
Total Offense+9.8#11
First Shot+8.6#12
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#113
Layup/Dunks+5.1#40
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#345
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#101
Freethrows+4.5#13
Improvement-2.8#351

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#53
First Shot+4.5#56
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#148
Layups/Dunks+5.4#39
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#178
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#264
Freethrows+1.1#112
Improvement+0.5#138
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.7% 3.0% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 6.9% 7.5% 1.5%
Top 4 Seed 21.3% 22.6% 7.9%
Top 6 Seed 38.9% 40.7% 20.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 77.7% 79.4% 60.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 73.8% 75.7% 56.1%
Average Seed 6.4 6.4 7.6
.500 or above 94.9% 95.9% 84.0%
.500 or above in Conference 94.7% 95.9% 82.8%
Conference Champion 14.4% 15.4% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four5.4% 5.2% 6.9%
First Round75.6% 77.4% 57.6%
Second Round53.3% 55.0% 35.9%
Sweet Sixteen26.4% 27.5% 15.1%
Elite Eight12.7% 13.3% 5.9%
Final Four5.8% 6.1% 2.4%
Championship Game2.5% 2.7% 0.8%
National Champion1.1% 1.2% 0.3%

Next Game: Georgia Tech (Home) - 91.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 10
Quad 26 - 211 - 11
Quad 37 - 118 - 12
Quad 44 - 022 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 173   Elon W 90-76 95%     1 - 0 +10.2 +9.2 +0.2
  Nov 08, 2024 7   @ Kansas L 89-92 26%     1 - 1 +18.3 +18.2 +0.4
  Nov 15, 2024 236   American W 107-55 97%     2 - 1 +44.9 +23.9 +18.1
  Nov 22, 2024 162   @ Hawaii W 87-69 87%     3 - 1 +20.5 +18.4 +2.6
  Nov 25, 2024 46   Dayton W 92-90 66%     4 - 1 +12.6 +12.7 -0.4
  Nov 26, 2024 3   Auburn L 72-85 29%     4 - 2 +7.4 +1.3 +6.8
  Nov 27, 2024 27   Michigan St. L 91-94 OT 56%     4 - 3 +10.3 +13.8 -3.2
  Dec 04, 2024 5   Alabama L 79-94 47%     4 - 4 +0.5 -2.0 +4.9
  Dec 07, 2024 111   Georgia Tech W 91-77 91%    
  Dec 14, 2024 143   La Salle W 93-76 94%    
  Dec 17, 2024 10   Florida L 85-88 40%    
  Dec 21, 2024 18   UCLA W 76-75 50%    
  Dec 29, 2024 278   Campbell W 88-64 99%    
  Jan 01, 2025 43   @ Louisville W 83-82 53%    
  Jan 04, 2025 80   @ Notre Dame W 80-75 68%    
  Jan 07, 2025 62   SMU W 90-81 79%    
  Jan 11, 2025 72   @ North Carolina St. W 82-78 64%    
  Jan 15, 2025 109   California W 92-78 90%    
  Jan 18, 2025 93   Stanford W 88-76 86%    
  Jan 21, 2025 89   @ Wake Forest W 80-74 70%    
  Jan 25, 2025 145   Boston College W 87-70 94%    
  Jan 28, 2025 36   @ Pittsburgh L 81-82 49%    
  Feb 01, 2025 2   @ Duke L 74-83 21%    
  Feb 08, 2025 36   Pittsburgh W 84-79 69%    
  Feb 10, 2025 28   @ Clemson L 78-79 46%    
  Feb 15, 2025 96   @ Syracuse W 89-83 71%    
  Feb 19, 2025 72   North Carolina St. W 85-75 81%    
  Feb 22, 2025 90   Virginia W 75-63 86%    
  Feb 24, 2025 61   @ Florida St. W 84-81 59%    
  Mar 01, 2025 87   Miami (FL) W 91-79 85%    
  Mar 04, 2025 129   @ Virginia Tech W 83-73 82%    
  Mar 08, 2025 2   Duke L 77-80 40%    
Projected Record 21 - 11 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.0 4.6 3.8 1.7 0.3 14.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.1 7.0 7.3 3.8 0.6 0.0 22.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.0 6.6 5.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 17.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 5.6 4.3 1.2 0.1 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.7 3.7 1.0 0.1 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.2 3.4 1.0 0.1 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.7 1.3 0.1 4.9 7th
8th 0.2 1.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 3.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 1.7 0.4 0.0 2.8 9th
10th 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.0 1.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.8 5.0 7.8 10.8 13.8 15.2 14.8 12.2 8.5 4.4 1.7 0.3 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 99.9% 1.7    1.5 0.1
18-2 85.7% 3.8    2.7 1.0 0.0
17-3 53.8% 4.6    2.4 1.9 0.2 0.0
16-4 24.6% 3.0    1.0 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 6.2% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.4% 14.4 8.2 4.8 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 44.1% 55.9% 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.7% 100.0% 40.2% 59.8% 1.8 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 4.4% 100.0% 35.5% 64.5% 2.5 1.0 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 8.5% 100.0% 28.3% 71.7% 3.5 0.5 1.5 2.4 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.9%
16-4 12.2% 99.6% 22.3% 77.3% 4.8 0.2 0.6 1.9 2.9 2.7 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
15-5 14.8% 97.5% 18.3% 79.2% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.9 3.1 2.8 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.4 97.0%
14-6 15.2% 92.7% 13.5% 79.2% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.1 3.0 3.0 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.0 1.1 91.6%
13-7 13.8% 81.8% 9.8% 72.1% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 1.3 0.1 2.5 79.9%
12-8 10.8% 60.8% 7.1% 53.8% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.6 0.1 4.3 57.8%
11-9 7.8% 38.3% 4.0% 34.3% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.3 0.2 4.8 35.7%
10-10 5.0% 19.2% 3.1% 16.1% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 4.1 16.6%
9-11 2.8% 5.5% 1.1% 4.4% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.6 4.4%
8-12 1.5% 3.5% 3.0% 0.5% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.6%
7-13 0.7% 1.4% 1.4% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.7
6-14 0.2% 1.6% 1.6% 14.0 0.0 0.2
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 77.7% 14.9% 62.8% 6.4 2.7 4.2 6.5 7.9 8.8 8.9 9.1 9.1 7.8 6.7 5.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.3 73.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 86.2 13.8