North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.1#22
Expected Predictive Rating+21.7#9
Pace74.0#74
Improvement-1.4#295

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#37
First Shot+4.0#73
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#21
Layup/Dunks+7.8#11
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#337
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#279
Freethrows+2.9#52
Improvement-1.1#272

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#20
First Shot+5.2#43
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#60
Layups/Dunks+5.4#37
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#338
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#225
Freethrows+4.0#11
Improvement-0.4#226
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.3% 2.5% 0.6%
Top 2 Seed 7.9% 8.7% 3.2%
Top 4 Seed 30.7% 33.0% 17.5%
Top 6 Seed 58.3% 61.1% 41.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 91.8% 93.0% 84.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 91.1% 92.3% 84.0%
Average Seed 5.8 5.6 6.6
.500 or above 99.3% 99.6% 97.5%
.500 or above in Conference 85.7% 87.0% 78.1%
Conference Champion 8.8% 9.4% 5.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four3.3% 3.0% 5.1%
First Round90.1% 91.5% 82.1%
Second Round64.4% 66.4% 52.3%
Sweet Sixteen29.3% 30.8% 20.8%
Elite Eight11.4% 12.1% 7.2%
Final Four4.5% 4.8% 2.7%
Championship Game1.7% 1.8% 1.0%
National Champion0.5% 0.6% 0.3%

Next Game: Georgetown (Home) - 85.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 7
Quad 26 - 213 - 9
Quad 35 - 018 - 9
Quad 46 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 322 Central Arkansas W 94-54 99%     1 - 0 +27.8 +9.2 +15.8
  Fri, Nov 7 19 Kansas W 87-74 58%     2 - 0 +26.0 +21.5 +4.5
  Tue, Nov 11 271 Radford W 89-74 98%     3 - 0 +5.9 -1.5 +5.3
  Fri, Nov 14 350 NC Central W 97-53 99%     4 - 0 +29.0 +16.9 +12.1
  Tue, Nov 18 192 Navy W 73-61 96%     5 - 0 +6.8 -2.3 +9.1
  Tue, Nov 25 111 St. Bonaventure W 85-70 85%     6 - 0 +18.8 +13.3 +5.2
  Thu, Nov 27 9 Michigan St. L 58-74 35%     6 - 1 +3.2 +5.1 -4.3
  Tue, Dec 2 17 @Kentucky W 67-64 31%     7 - 1 +23.1 +10.6 +12.8
  Sun, Dec 7 82 Georgetown W 82-71 86%    
  Sat, Dec 13 288 South Carolina Upstate W 89-64 99%    
  Tue, Dec 16 137 East Tennessee St. W 83-67 94%    
  Sat, Dec 20 24 Ohio St. W 78-77 52%    
  Mon, Dec 22 249 East Carolina W 88-65 98%    
  Tue, Dec 30 99 Florida St. W 88-75 89%    
  Sat, Jan 3 38 @SMU L 80-81 48%    
  Sat, Jan 10 53 Wake Forest W 83-75 77%    
  Wed, Jan 14 83 @Stanford W 82-76 69%    
  Sat, Jan 17 69 @California W 80-76 64%    
  Wed, Jan 21 62 Notre Dame W 77-68 80%    
  Sat, Jan 24 39 @Virginia L 75-76 49%    
  Sat, Jan 31 125 @Georgia Tech W 79-70 80%    
  Mon, Feb 2 60 Syracuse W 80-71 79%    
  Sat, Feb 7 3 Duke L 73-77 36%    
  Tue, Feb 10 33 @Miami (FL) L 77-78 47%    
  Sat, Feb 14 94 Pittsburgh W 79-66 88%    
  Tue, Feb 17 31 @North Carolina St. L 83-84 45%    
  Sat, Feb 21 60 @Syracuse W 77-74 60%    
  Mon, Feb 23 10 Louisville L 80-81 47%    
  Sat, Feb 28 70 Virginia Tech W 83-73 82%    
  Tue, Mar 3 34 Clemson W 76-71 68%    
  Sat, Mar 7 3 @Duke L 70-80 19%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.3 2.4 1.0 0.2 8.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.2 5.2 2.7 0.4 12.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.5 5.8 2.4 0.3 12.5 3rd
4th 0.1 2.5 5.9 3.2 0.3 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 5.2 4.0 0.6 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.3 3.1 4.7 1.0 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 4.6 1.8 0.1 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.1 2.9 0.3 0.0 6.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 3.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 5.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.5 1.5 0.1 4.4 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 3.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.7 0.0 2.5 12th
13th 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.1 1.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.3 14th
15th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.0 6.9 10.0 12.6 14.9 15.2 13.1 9.7 6.3 2.8 1.0 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.0    0.9 0.1
16-2 84.4% 2.4    1.6 0.7 0.0 0.0
15-3 51.5% 3.3    1.3 1.5 0.4 0.0
14-4 17.9% 1.7    0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.8% 8.8 4.3 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 37.8% 62.2% 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.0% 100.0% 33.9% 66.1% 1.7 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.8% 100.0% 26.1% 73.9% 2.2 0.6 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 6.3% 100.0% 21.0% 79.0% 2.8 0.7 1.8 2.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 9.7% 100.0% 16.8% 83.2% 3.5 0.3 1.4 3.1 3.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.1% 100.0% 12.3% 87.7% 4.4 0.1 0.6 2.5 4.2 3.6 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 15.2% 99.8% 7.6% 92.3% 5.3 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.8 4.8 4.0 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-7 14.9% 99.5% 5.0% 94.5% 6.3 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.9 4.4 3.4 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.5%
10-8 12.6% 97.2% 3.2% 94.1% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.5 3.2 3.0 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.3 97.2%
9-9 10.0% 91.2% 2.1% 89.1% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 2.3 2.4 1.6 0.4 0.9 91.0%
8-10 6.9% 75.5% 0.9% 74.6% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.9 1.1 0.0 1.7 75.2%
7-11 4.0% 46.7% 0.6% 46.2% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.0 2.1 46.4%
6-12 2.1% 16.0% 16.0% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.8 16.0%
5-13 0.9% 3.1% 3.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.1%
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 91.8% 8.3% 83.6% 5.8 2.3 5.6 10.0 12.8 14.0 13.6 10.5 8.5 6.5 5.0 2.8 0.1 8.2 91.1%