North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.9#26
Expected Predictive Rating+11.5#39
Pace72.2#77
Improvement+0.0#183

Offense
Total Offense+7.6#22
First Shot+6.2#29
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#79
Layup/Dunks+2.4#86
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#147
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#263
Freethrows+5.6#1
Improvement-1.2#330

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#46
First Shot+3.5#73
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#34
Layups/Dunks-1.7#255
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#209
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#97
Freethrows+3.3#9
Improvement+1.2#29
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.9% 2.2% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 5.4% 11.4% 1.7%
Top 6 Seed 17.7% 32.0% 9.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 79.6% 90.5% 72.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 76.1% 88.7% 68.7%
Average Seed 8.1 7.2 8.7
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 97.1% 99.5% 95.6%
Conference Champion 4.4% 8.9% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.4% 5.1% 12.0%
First Round75.5% 88.2% 67.7%
Second Round44.3% 55.5% 37.5%
Sweet Sixteen18.1% 24.2% 14.4%
Elite Eight8.2% 10.9% 6.6%
Final Four3.5% 4.7% 2.7%
Championship Game1.4% 1.9% 1.1%
National Champion0.6% 0.8% 0.4%

Next Game: Duke (Away) - 37.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 8
Quad 26 - 29 - 10
Quad 36 - 015 - 11
Quad 46 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 152   UNC Wilmington W 69-56 91%     1 - 0 +11.0 +2.9 +9.2
  Nov 11, 2022 83   College of Charleston W 102-86 81%     2 - 0 +19.8 +22.2 -3.7
  Nov 15, 2022 192   Gardner-Webb W 72-66 93%     3 - 0 +2.1 +0.2 +1.8
  Nov 20, 2022 96   James Madison W 80-64 84%     4 - 0 +18.2 +4.1 +13.0
  Nov 24, 2022 166   Portland W 89-81 88%     5 - 0 +8.2 +11.0 -3.1
  Nov 25, 2022 22   Iowa St. L 65-70 47%     5 - 1 +8.8 +7.1 +1.1
  Nov 27, 2022 2   Alabama L 101-103 4OT 28%     5 - 2 +17.0 +7.3 +10.3
  Nov 30, 2022 21   @ Indiana L 65-77 36%     5 - 3 +4.5 -0.1 +4.5
  Dec 04, 2022 49   @ Virginia Tech L 72-80 51%     5 - 4 0 - 1 +4.7 +5.7 -1.1
  Dec 10, 2022 172   Georgia Tech W 75-59 92%     6 - 4 1 - 1 +13.2 +5.0 +8.8
  Dec 13, 2022 301   The Citadel W 100-67 97%     7 - 4 +22.5 +12.5 +6.9
  Dec 17, 2022 29   Ohio St. W 89-84 OT 51%     8 - 4 +17.6 +6.1 +10.8
  Dec 21, 2022 58   Michigan W 80-76 65%     9 - 4 +13.0 +7.1 +5.8
  Dec 30, 2022 64   @ Pittsburgh L 74-76 57%     9 - 5 1 - 2 +9.1 +4.7 +4.4
  Jan 04, 2023 67   Wake Forest W 88-79 76%     10 - 5 2 - 2 +14.5 +13.1 +1.3
  Jan 07, 2023 127   Notre Dame W 81-64 89%     11 - 5 3 - 2 +16.6 +6.2 +10.8
  Jan 10, 2023 16   @ Virginia L 58-65 35%     11 - 6 3 - 3 +9.9 -0.3 +9.5
  Jan 14, 2023 248   @ Louisville W 80-59 91%     12 - 6 4 - 3 +19.2 +5.8 +13.0
  Jan 17, 2023 144   Boston College W 72-64 90%     13 - 6 5 - 3 +6.8 +5.6 +1.7
  Jan 21, 2023 37   North Carolina St. W 80-69 66%     14 - 6 6 - 3 +19.7 +9.7 +10.0
  Jan 24, 2023 75   @ Syracuse W 72-68 62%     15 - 6 7 - 3 +13.7 +0.7 +12.9
  Feb 01, 2023 64   Pittsburgh L 64-65 76%     15 - 7 7 - 4 +4.7 -1.3 +5.9
  Feb 04, 2023 24   @ Duke L 71-74 38%    
  Feb 07, 2023 67   @ Wake Forest W 80-78 56%    
  Feb 11, 2023 60   Clemson W 76-69 74%    
  Feb 13, 2023 34   Miami (FL) W 79-75 64%    
  Feb 19, 2023 37   @ North Carolina St. L 76-77 44%    
  Feb 22, 2023 127   @ Notre Dame W 78-70 76%    
  Feb 25, 2023 16   Virginia W 67-66 56%    
  Feb 27, 2023 140   @ Florida St. W 80-71 78%    
  Mar 04, 2023 24   Duke W 73-71 60%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.6 1.3 4.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 4.9 3.9 0.3 9.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.4 7.7 1.0 0.0 12.2 3rd
4th 0.9 9.7 3.5 0.1 14.2 4th
5th 0.2 6.0 8.9 0.4 15.4 5th
6th 0.0 2.5 11.1 2.2 0.0 15.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.6 8.7 5.2 0.1 15.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.8 3.9 0.2 8.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.1 0.5 2.3 7.5 15.6 23.3 24.6 16.9 7.6 1.6 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 79.9% 1.3    0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 34.7% 2.6    0.3 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0
14-6 2.9% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.4% 4.4 0.9 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 1.6% 100.0% 23.2% 76.8% 2.6 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 7.6% 99.6% 20.1% 79.6% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
14-6 16.9% 98.4% 17.5% 80.8% 6.6 0.1 0.7 2.5 4.4 5.4 2.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.3 98.0%
13-7 24.6% 93.3% 14.7% 78.7% 8.3 0.0 0.3 1.2 4.7 6.8 6.4 3.1 0.4 0.0 1.6 92.2%
12-8 23.3% 80.7% 14.1% 66.6% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.6 5.7 7.1 2.7 0.1 4.5 77.6%
11-9 15.6% 59.7% 11.9% 47.8% 10.2 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.9 3.8 0.2 6.3 54.3%
10-10 7.5% 31.8% 9.6% 22.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.1 24.6%
9-11 2.3% 10.6% 8.2% 2.4% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.6%
8-12 0.5% 7.3% 7.3% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
7-13 0.1% 23.1% 23.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 79.6% 14.6% 65.0% 8.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 3.2 5.3 7.0 11.2 12.4 14.3 14.6 8.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 20.4 76.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 2.6 12.2 35.8 37.8 13.1 1.1
Lose Out 0.1% 23.1% 15.0 23.1