Virginia Tech
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.2#27
Expected Predictive Rating+8.1#76
Pace65.1#282
Improvement-1.7#304

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#35
First Shot+7.8#13
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#288
Layup/Dunks+5.3#31
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#122
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#62
Freethrows-2.5#312
Improvement-1.7#325

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#22
First Shot+4.3#55
After Offensive Rebounds+3.0#29
Layups/Dunks+2.8#80
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#281
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#150
Freethrows+2.2#58
Improvement-0.1#185
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.7% 2.6% 0.6%
Top 2 Seed 4.5% 6.2% 2.5%
Top 4 Seed 15.8% 20.7% 9.9%
Top 6 Seed 32.6% 40.0% 23.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 75.1% 82.1% 66.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 71.0% 78.7% 62.1%
Average Seed 7.0 6.6 7.6
.500 or above 96.7% 98.6% 94.4%
.500 or above in Conference 92.1% 93.8% 89.9%
Conference Champion 20.1% 22.7% 16.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four5.2% 4.5% 5.9%
First Round72.7% 79.7% 64.0%
Second Round47.1% 53.3% 39.3%
Sweet Sixteen21.7% 25.8% 16.7%
Elite Eight9.4% 11.4% 7.0%
Final Four4.3% 5.3% 3.1%
Championship Game1.5% 1.7% 1.3%
National Champion0.7% 0.9% 0.4%

Next Game: Maryland (Away) - 55.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 7
Quad 27 - 311 - 10
Quad 36 - 117 - 10
Quad 46 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 352   Maine W 82-47 99%     1 - 0 +16.3 +6.8 +10.6
  Nov 12, 2021 101   @ Navy W 77-57 71%     2 - 0 +27.5 +18.3 +11.2
  Nov 15, 2021 248   Radford W 65-39 96%     3 - 0 +18.4 -8.1 +27.0
  Nov 18, 2021 267   St. Francis (PA) W 85-55 97%     4 - 0 +21.0 +8.9 +13.4
  Nov 21, 2021 232   Merrimack W 72-43 96%     5 - 0 +22.6 +13.0 +14.8
  Nov 24, 2021 23   Memphis L 61-69 48%     5 - 1 +5.8 -2.4 +8.1
  Nov 26, 2021 37   Xavier L 58-59 59%     5 - 2 +9.9 -0.8 +10.6
  Dec 01, 2021 52   @ Maryland W 67-65 55%    
  Dec 04, 2021 81   Wake Forest W 73-64 81%    
  Dec 08, 2021 185   Cornell W 82-65 95%    
  Dec 12, 2021 113   @ Dayton W 68-61 74%    
  Dec 17, 2021 39   St. Bonaventure W 65-63 59%    
  Dec 22, 2021 5   @ Duke L 67-74 24%    
  Dec 29, 2021 43   @ North Carolina L 74-75 49%    
  Jan 01, 2022 200   Pittsburgh W 73-55 95%    
  Jan 04, 2022 64   North Carolina St. W 73-64 79%    
  Jan 12, 2022 40   @ Virginia L 57-58 48%    
  Jan 15, 2022 63   Notre Dame W 73-64 79%    
  Jan 19, 2022 64   @ North Carolina St. W 70-67 59%    
  Jan 22, 2022 125   @ Boston College W 69-61 76%    
  Jan 26, 2022 120   Miami (FL) W 76-63 88%    
  Jan 29, 2022 31   @ Florida St. L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 02, 2022 88   Georgia Tech W 71-61 81%    
  Feb 05, 2022 200   @ Pittsburgh W 70-58 85%    
  Feb 12, 2022 71   Syracuse W 77-68 80%    
  Feb 14, 2022 40   Virginia W 61-55 69%    
  Feb 19, 2022 43   North Carolina W 78-72 70%    
  Feb 23, 2022 88   @ Georgia Tech W 68-64 64%    
  Feb 26, 2022 120   @ Miami (FL) W 73-66 74%    
  Mar 01, 2022 36   Louisville W 68-63 66%    
  Mar 05, 2022 50   @ Clemson W 65-64 54%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.7 5.5 4.6 1.6 0.4 20.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 4.9 7.1 6.0 2.3 0.5 0.1 22.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.5 6.3 3.3 0.7 0.1 15.8 3rd
4th 0.4 3.3 5.3 2.5 0.3 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 3.8 2.6 0.4 8.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 3.0 2.5 0.3 0.1 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 1.9 0.5 0.0 3.6 8th
9th 0.3 1.7 0.6 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.0 1.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.3 3.9 5.3 7.4 11.0 13.9 14.6 13.4 11.3 7.9 5.0 1.7 0.4 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 93.8% 1.6    1.5 0.1
18-2 90.9% 4.6    4.0 0.6 0.0
17-3 69.1% 5.5    3.4 2.0 0.2
16-4 41.2% 4.7    2.1 2.0 0.5 0.0
15-5 20.2% 2.7    0.7 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.9% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 20.1% 20.1 12.2 6.2 1.3 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 100.0% 42.3% 57.7% 1.3 0.3 0.1 100.0%
19-1 1.7% 100.0% 32.5% 67.5% 2.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 5.0% 99.6% 35.4% 64.2% 2.9 0.6 1.3 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.4%
17-3 7.9% 100.0% 27.8% 72.2% 4.2 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 11.3% 99.6% 19.8% 79.9% 5.5 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.7 2.5 2.6 1.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
15-5 13.4% 97.3% 17.2% 80.1% 6.8 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.0 2.2 1.9 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.4 96.8%
14-6 14.6% 91.3% 15.4% 75.9% 7.9 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 2.6 3.2 2.2 1.5 1.0 0.1 1.3 89.7%
13-7 13.9% 78.2% 9.2% 69.0% 9.1 0.2 0.3 1.1 2.1 2.4 2.6 1.9 0.2 0.0 3.0 76.0%
12-8 11.0% 64.1% 7.2% 56.9% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 1.2 1.8 1.8 0.7 0.0 4.0 61.3%
11-9 7.4% 41.2% 4.2% 37.0% 10.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 4.4 38.6%
10-10 5.3% 21.0% 4.0% 17.0% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 4.2 17.7%
9-11 3.9% 6.1% 0.7% 5.4% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.7 5.5%
8-12 2.3% 1.9% 0.9% 1.0% 12.0 0.0 2.2 1.0%
7-13 1.0% 3.8% 3.8% 13.5 0.0 0.0 1.0
6-14 0.4% 0.4
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 75.1% 14.2% 61.0% 7.0 1.7 2.8 5.1 6.2 7.9 8.9 8.5 9.3 8.3 7.7 6.8 1.8 0.1 0.0 24.9 71.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 65.6 34.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.4 64.5 35.5