Virginia Tech
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.0#49
Expected Predictive Rating+8.0#67
Pace66.1#244
Improvement-0.8#277

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#40
First Shot+7.2#19
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#275
Layup/Dunks+5.2#23
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#138
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#106
Freethrows-0.3#197
Improvement-0.4#260

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#71
First Shot+3.9#65
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#155
Layups/Dunks+1.1#138
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#248
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#127
Freethrows+2.1#45
Improvement-0.4#242
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.3% 2.9% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.7% 38.6% 16.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 21.0% 33.2% 11.0%
Average Seed 10.2 9.8 10.9
.500 or above 99.0% 99.8% 98.3%
.500 or above in Conference 35.5% 53.5% 20.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four10.5% 14.1% 7.4%
First Round21.6% 31.7% 13.2%
Second Round9.0% 13.9% 5.0%
Sweet Sixteen3.1% 4.7% 1.7%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.7% 0.6%
Final Four0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia (Home) - 45.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 5
Quad 24 - 57 - 10
Quad 34 - 210 - 12
Quad 49 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 356   Delaware St. W 95-57 99%     1 - 0 +20.7 +14.4 +6.7
  Nov 10, 2022 258   Lehigh W 78-52 94%     2 - 0 +18.2 +7.0 +12.7
  Nov 13, 2022 305   William & Mary W 94-77 96%     3 - 0 +6.4 +22.9 -15.0
  Nov 17, 2022 176   Old Dominion W 75-71 83%     4 - 0 +3.8 +7.5 -3.5
  Nov 18, 2022 45   Penn St. W 61-59 48%     5 - 0 +12.5 -2.1 +14.7
  Nov 20, 2022 83   @ College of Charleston L 75-77 53%     5 - 1 +7.3 +3.1 +4.3
  Nov 25, 2022 280   Charleston Southern W 69-64 95%     6 - 1 -4.0 -2.4 -0.9
  Nov 28, 2022 173   Minnesota W 67-57 88%     7 - 1 +7.2 -0.4 +8.3
  Dec 04, 2022 26   North Carolina W 80-72 49%     8 - 1 1 - 0 +18.2 +12.4 +5.9
  Dec 07, 2022 68   Dayton W 77-49 67%     9 - 1 +33.5 +13.3 +22.0
  Dec 11, 2022 35   Oklahoma St. W 70-65 42%     10 - 1 +16.9 +8.5 +8.5
  Dec 17, 2022 240   Grambling St. W 74-48 93%     11 - 1 +19.2 +4.2 +16.5
  Dec 21, 2022 144   @ Boston College L 65-70 OT 71%     11 - 2 1 - 1 -0.7 -2.7 +1.9
  Dec 31, 2022 67   @ Wake Forest L 75-77 46%     11 - 3 1 - 2 +9.0 +4.4 +4.6
  Jan 04, 2023 60   Clemson L 65-68 65%     11 - 4 1 - 3 +3.1 -7.3 +10.6
  Jan 07, 2023 37   North Carolina St. L 69-73 55%     11 - 5 1 - 4 +4.7 +1.0 +3.7
  Jan 11, 2023 75   @ Syracuse L 72-82 51%     11 - 6 1 - 5 -0.3 -0.1 +0.2
  Jan 18, 2023 16   @ Virginia L 68-78 25%     11 - 7 1 - 6 +6.9 +14.9 -9.6
  Jan 21, 2023 60   @ Clemson L 50-51 44%     11 - 8 1 - 7 +10.6 -13.5 +24.1
  Jan 23, 2023 24   Duke W 78-75 48%     12 - 8 2 - 7 +13.5 +17.8 -4.0
  Jan 28, 2023 75   Syracuse W 85-70 71%     13 - 8 3 - 7 +19.2 +13.0 +6.3
  Jan 31, 2023 34   @ Miami (FL) L 83-92 32%     13 - 9 3 - 8 +5.8 +11.5 -5.4
  Feb 04, 2023 16   Virginia L 63-64 45%    
  Feb 08, 2023 144   Boston College W 72-61 86%    
  Feb 11, 2023 127   @ Notre Dame W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 15, 2023 172   @ Georgia Tech W 71-64 75%    
  Feb 18, 2023 64   Pittsburgh W 72-68 66%    
  Feb 21, 2023 34   Miami (FL) W 74-73 54%    
  Feb 25, 2023 24   @ Duke L 66-72 28%    
  Feb 28, 2023 248   @ Louisville W 75-63 86%    
  Mar 04, 2023 140   Florida St. W 78-67 86%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 9 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 0.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 3.9 0.5 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.8 8.1 4.6 0.1 14.6 8th
9th 0.0 2.0 11.3 10.7 1.0 25.2 9th
10th 0.0 2.1 12.2 13.2 2.7 0.0 30.3 10th
11th 0.0 1.0 6.0 6.7 1.1 0.0 14.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.6 0.5 0.0 6.0 12th
13th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.7 10.8 21.5 27.5 22.8 10.6 2.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 2.2% 95.7% 13.9% 81.8% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 95.0%
11-9 10.6% 71.1% 9.7% 61.4% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.4 1.5 0.0 3.1 68.0%
10-10 22.8% 42.7% 8.1% 34.5% 10.5 0.1 0.6 3.6 5.2 0.2 0.0 13.0 37.6%
9-11 27.5% 17.6% 7.1% 10.5% 11.0 0.0 0.6 3.5 0.7 0.0 22.6 11.3%
8-12 21.5% 8.4% 6.6% 1.8% 11.7 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 19.7 1.9%
7-13 10.8% 5.2% 5.1% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.3 0.1%
6-14 3.7% 4.5% 4.5% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.6
5-15 0.8% 3.3% 3.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.8
4-16 0.1% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 26.7% 7.3% 19.4% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 1.0 2.5 7.7 10.9 2.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 73.3 21.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.2% 95.7% 6.2 0.6 5.1 20.7 34.0 21.7 11.0 2.3 0.4 0.1