Wake Forest
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.5 #66
Expected Predictive Rating +8.4 #72
Pace 72.0 #94
Improvement -4.8 #346

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #86 C+ B B- C C+
Defense #62 B- C+ A C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #215 1.19 #134 -0.1 #181
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #273 0.96 #11 +0.0 #175
Three Pointers 47% #72 1.01 #189 +2.7 #95
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #109 +2.5 #109
Freethrows 0.3 #205 76% #55 0.2 #155
Second Chance 32.2% #138 1.23 #21 0.39 #49
Turnovers 14.7% #78
Total Offense +3.9 #86

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #297 1.23 #268 +1.2 #131
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #298 0.69 #78 +2.0 #39
Three Pointers 49% #14 0.88 #33 -0.7 #208
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #97 +2.5 #97
Freethrows 17.7 #187 75% #295 13.2 #216
Second Chance 30.4% #176 1.00 #122 0.31 #141
Turnovers 21.4% #10
Total Defense +4.6 #62

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #124 0.5% #205
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.0% #109 -5.4% #79
Possession Length 16.0 #57 18.2 #301
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #73 0.14 #73
Improvement -1.9 #287 -2.9 #325

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 9.0% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.8% 8.8% 3.0%
Average Seed 10.4 10.4 10.5
.500 or above 65.6% 79.5% 52.4%
.500 or above in Conference 22.3% 33.5% 11.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.1% 1.0% 7.1%
First Four3.8% 5.5% 2.2%
First Round4.1% 6.2% 2.0%
Second Round1.3% 2.0% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pittsburgh (Away) - 48.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 10
Quad 26 - 57 - 15
Quad 33 - 110 - 16
Quad 47 - 017 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 220 American W 88 - 74 91% +9  1 - 0 +7 +6 D A+ B+ +0 C+ D- A+
 Fri, Nov 7 298 Morehead St. W 81 - 65 95% +8  2 - 0 +5 -9 F B F +12 A+ C A+
 Tue, Nov 11 1 Michigan L 84 - 85 OT 7% -2  2 - 1 +24 +8 D+ A+ B+ +16 A+ A- A+
 Sun, Nov 16 315 Umass Lowell W 109 - 75 96% +15  3 - 1 +22 +22 B+ A+ A- -3 D B+ C
 Thu, Nov 20 15 Texas Tech L 83 - 84 18% -2  3 - 2 +17 +11 B A A+ +6 B C+ A
 Fri, Nov 21 101 Memphis W 69 - 68 63% -5  4 - 2 +6 +5 D+ A+ C- +1 D B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 206 Campbell W 99 - 51 90% +26  5 - 2 +42 +19 A A+ A+ +22 A+ A C+
 Fri, Nov 28 261 Northeastern W 86 - 73 93% +7  6 - 2 +5 +3 A B+ F +1 F A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 56 Oklahoma L 68 - 86 56% -4  6 - 3 -11 -6 F+ F+ C- -5 D D+ A-
 Sat, Dec 6 55 West Virginia W 75 - 66 44% +6  7 - 3 +19 +20 A+ B- C +1 B F+ A+
 Sun, Dec 14 186 Queens W 111 - 73 89% +19  8 - 3 +33 +29 A+ A- C +3 C B+ B
 Wed, Dec 17 262 Longwood W 71 - 68 93% +2  9 - 3 -5 -9 F F B+ +4 A C- D+
 Sun, Dec 21 16 Vanderbilt L 67 - 98 26% -19  9 - 4 -16 -2 D C+ F -12 F A B+
 Wed, Dec 31 27 @North Carolina St. L 57 - 70 17% -7  9 - 5 0 - 1 +5 -9 D- F C- +15 A- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 58 Virginia Tech W 81 - 78 57% +4  10 - 5 1 - 1 +10 +7 C- A+ A- +3 C B A+
 Wed, Jan 7 39 Miami (FL) L 77 - 81 45% +1  10 - 6 1 - 2 +6 +11 A+ C B -5 A F B+
 Sat, Jan 10 29 @North Carolina L 84 - 87 19% -8  10 - 7 1 - 3 +15 +16 A+ A- F+ -1 C+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 107 @Florida St. W 69 - 68 55% -3  11 - 7 2 - 3 +8 +3 D+ A- A+ +5 B+ D+ A+
 Tue, Jan 20 36 SMU L 79 - 91 41% -8  11 - 8 2 - 4 -1 +3 B- C- B+ -3 D C A
 Sat, Jan 24 3 @Duke L 69 - 90 7% -9  11 - 9 2 - 5 +4 +14 A C+ A+ -11 B- D- D+
 Tue, Jan 27 93 @Pittsburgh L 73 - 74 49%
 Sat, Jan 31 27 North Carolina St. L 76 - 80 36%
 Sat, Feb 7 14 Louisville L 77 - 84 26%
 Wed, Feb 11 113 @Georgia Tech W 78 - 76 58%
 Sat, Feb 14 85 Stanford W 78 - 73 67%
 Wed, Feb 18 33 Clemson L 69 - 72 40%
 Sat, Feb 21 58 @Virginia Tech L 74 - 78 35%
 Tue, Feb 24 132 @Boston College W 72 - 68 63%
 Sat, Feb 28 70 Syracuse W 78 - 74 63%
 Tue, Mar 3 19 @Virginia L 68 - 80 14%
 Sat, Mar 7 65 California W 76 - 73 61%
Totals 16 - 15 7 - 11 +8 +4 C+ B B- +5 B- C+ A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.2 0.6 0.1 1.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 0.8 0.0 1.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 2.6 0.4 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.7 4.0 2.2 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.2 4.1 5.2 0.5 10.0 9th
10th 0.0 2.5 7.8 2.5 0.1 12.9 10th
11th 0.7 7.3 5.2 0.3 13.6 11th
12th 0.1 3.7 8.2 1.4 0.0 13.4 12th
13th 0.0 1.2 7.5 3.2 0.1 12.0 13th
14th 0.2 3.8 5.0 0.4 9.3 14th
15th 1.1 4.2 1.0 0.0 6.3 15th
16th 0.1 2.2 1.9 0.1 4.4 16th
17th 0.0 0.8 1.4 0.3 2.5 17th
18th 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.2 18th
Total 0.2 1.6 5.3 11.6 18.0 21.8 19.3 13.1 6.6 2.0 0.6 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.6% 82.6% 0.9% 81.7% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 82.5%
11-7 2.0% 57.4% 1.7% 55.7% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.9 56.7%
10-8 6.6% 31.2% 0.7% 30.5% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 0.0 4.6 30.8%
9-9 13.1% 13.5% 0.5% 13.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.1 11.3 13.1%
8-10 19.3% 2.4% 0.2% 2.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 18.9 2.2%
7-11 21.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 10.9 0.0 0.1 21.7 0.2%
6-12 18.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 18.0
5-13 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 11.6
4-14 5.3% 5.3
3-15 1.6% 1.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.0% 0.2% 5.8% 10.4 94.0 5.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%