Wake Forest
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.3#67
Expected Predictive Rating+8.2#64
Pace73.1#60
Improvement+0.7#99

Offense
Total Offense+7.2#25
First Shot+7.8#13
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#220
Layup/Dunks+2.8#69
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#325
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#19
Freethrows+2.5#32
Improvement+1.8#3

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#140
First Shot-0.2#183
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#74
Layups/Dunks+1.8#100
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#96
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#348
Freethrows+2.3#37
Improvement-1.1#323
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.1% 11.0% 6.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.3% 6.0% 1.8%
Average Seed 11.2 11.0 11.9
.500 or above 98.9% 99.8% 97.4%
.500 or above in Conference 77.6% 88.6% 60.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.1% 4.0% 1.5%
First Round7.5% 8.9% 5.3%
Second Round2.5% 3.2% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.0% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Notre Dame (Away) - 61.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 8
Quad 24 - 35 - 11
Quad 34 - 29 - 12
Quad 49 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 232   Fairfield W 71-59 91%     1 - 0 +5.6 -0.9 +6.9
  Nov 11, 2022 103   Georgia W 81-71 74%     2 - 0 +11.5 +4.0 +6.9
  Nov 15, 2022 99   Utah Valley W 68-65 OT 73%     3 - 0 +5.0 -6.6 +11.4
  Nov 18, 2022 230   La Salle W 75-63 86%     4 - 0 +8.4 +0.6 +7.7
  Nov 20, 2022 91   Loyola Marymount L 75-77 OT 61%     4 - 1 +3.4 -2.7 +6.4
  Nov 23, 2022 355   South Carolina St. W 105-74 98%     5 - 1 +13.9 +10.8 -0.1
  Nov 26, 2022 342   Hampton W 97-70 97%     6 - 1 +12.5 +12.0 -0.4
  Nov 29, 2022 57   @ Wisconsin W 78-75 36%     7 - 1 +14.8 +14.2 +0.7
  Dec 02, 2022 60   @ Clemson L 57-77 37%     7 - 2 0 - 1 -8.4 -10.6 +2.7
  Dec 10, 2022 106   LSU L 70-72 67%     7 - 3 +1.9 +1.1 +0.7
  Dec 14, 2022 179   Appalachian St. W 67-66 85%     8 - 3 -2.0 -0.2 -1.8
  Dec 17, 2022 20   @ Rutgers L 57-81 22%     8 - 4 -7.5 -2.5 -5.3
  Dec 20, 2022 24   Duke W 81-70 41%     9 - 4 1 - 1 +21.5 +11.6 +9.7
  Dec 31, 2022 49   Virginia Tech W 77-75 54%     10 - 4 2 - 1 +9.3 +6.7 +2.5
  Jan 04, 2023 26   @ North Carolina L 79-88 24%     10 - 5 2 - 2 +6.6 +11.3 -4.5
  Jan 07, 2023 248   @ Louisville W 80-72 83%     11 - 5 3 - 2 +6.2 +12.3 -5.6
  Jan 11, 2023 140   Florida St. W 90-75 81%     12 - 5 4 - 2 +13.9 +13.9 -0.2
  Jan 14, 2023 144   @ Boston College W 85-63 65%     13 - 5 5 - 2 +26.3 +18.8 +8.0
  Jan 17, 2023 60   Clemson W 87-77 58%     14 - 5 6 - 2 +16.1 +14.8 +0.9
  Jan 21, 2023 16   Virginia L 67-76 38%     14 - 6 6 - 3 +2.5 +5.3 -3.6
  Jan 25, 2023 64   @ Pittsburgh L 79-81 39%     14 - 7 6 - 4 +9.1 +14.0 -5.0
  Jan 28, 2023 37   North Carolina St. L 77-79 48%     14 - 8 6 - 5 +6.7 +9.0 -2.3
  Jan 31, 2023 24   @ Duke L 73-75 23%     14 - 9 6 - 6 +14.0 +8.3 +5.7
  Feb 04, 2023 127   @ Notre Dame W 77-74 61%    
  Feb 07, 2023 26   North Carolina L 78-80 44%    
  Feb 11, 2023 172   Georgia Tech W 79-68 85%    
  Feb 18, 2023 34   @ Miami (FL) L 76-83 26%    
  Feb 22, 2023 37   @ North Carolina St. L 76-82 29%    
  Feb 25, 2023 127   Notre Dame W 80-71 80%    
  Feb 28, 2023 144   Boston College W 76-67 82%    
  Mar 04, 2023 75   @ Syracuse L 77-78 44%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 0.3 1.0 3rd
4th 0.5 2.1 0.2 2.8 4th
5th 0.2 3.6 2.1 0.0 5.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.8 7.7 0.5 11.0 6th
7th 0.1 2.4 12.1 4.3 0.0 19.0 7th
8th 0.0 2.4 13.6 11.2 0.5 27.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 8.2 9.9 1.3 0.0 20.4 9th
10th 0.2 2.8 4.9 1.2 0.0 9.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.1 1.1 5.3 15.9 27.3 27.6 16.6 5.5 0.7 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 2.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.7% 85.6% 10.6% 75.0% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 83.9%
13-7 5.5% 35.2% 7.7% 27.5% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.1 3.5 29.8%
12-8 16.6% 14.6% 6.1% 8.5% 11.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 14.2 9.0%
11-9 27.6% 7.2% 5.0% 2.2% 11.4 0.1 1.1 0.7 0.1 25.6 2.3%
10-10 27.3% 4.8% 4.5% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 26.0 0.3%
9-11 15.9% 3.9% 3.8% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 15.3 0.0%
8-12 5.3% 3.5% 3.5% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.1
7-13 1.1% 3.6% 3.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 1.0
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.1% 5.0% 4.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.2 4.3 1.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 90.9 4.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 85.6% 8.5 1.6 4.3 11.7 24.5 25.5 14.1 3.8
Lose Out 0.1%