Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.5#14
Expected Predictive Rating+17.9#19
Pace74.2#62
Improvement-2.1#312

Offense
Total Offense+11.5#7
First Shot+12.0#3
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#216
Layup/Dunks+1.5#118
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#331
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.6#1
Freethrows+2.9#30
Improvement-1.8#310

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#34
First Shot+4.3#53
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#61
Layups/Dunks+2.8#85
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#280
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#92
Freethrows+0.4#147
Improvement-0.3#202
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.7%
#1 Seed 4.6% 4.6% 2.1%
Top 2 Seed 14.0% 14.2% 5.1%
Top 4 Seed 47.1% 47.4% 25.9%
Top 6 Seed 75.2% 75.5% 58.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.3% 97.3% 92.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.8% 96.8% 91.3%
Average Seed 4.9 4.8 5.9
.500 or above 99.8% 99.8% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 95.1% 95.2% 90.8%
Conference Champion 16.2% 16.3% 11.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.5% 1.5% 2.8%
First Round96.6% 96.7% 91.2%
Second Round79.3% 79.5% 68.4%
Sweet Sixteen44.1% 44.3% 34.4%
Elite Eight19.8% 19.9% 14.3%
Final Four8.8% 8.9% 5.1%
Championship Game3.5% 3.5% 2.1%
National Champion1.4% 1.4% 0.2%

Next Game: Montana (Home) - 98.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b5 - 28 - 7
Quad 27 - 115 - 9
Quad 34 - 018 - 9
Quad 46 - 025 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 360 South Carolina St. W 104-45 99.6%    1 - 0 +41.1 +8.4 +24.3
  Thu, Nov 6 318 Jackson St. W 106-70 99%     2 - 0 +23.6 +19.2 +1.1
  Tue, Nov 11 20 Kentucky W 96-88 68%     3 - 0 +20.7 +21.4 -1.4
  Sat, Nov 15 177 Ohio W 106-81 97%     4 - 0 +20.8 +20.9 -2.1
  Fri, Nov 21 70 Cincinnati W 74-64 82%     5 - 0 +18.0 +9.2 +8.6
  Mon, Nov 24 227 Eastern Michigan W 87-46 98%     6 - 0 +34.2 +15.7 +20.3
  Wed, Nov 26 352 NJIT W 104-47 99%     7 - 0 +41.0 +28.3 +13.5
  Wed, Dec 3 21 @Arkansas L 80-89 46%     7 - 1 +9.6 +9.3 +1.0
  Sat, Dec 6 26 Indiana W 87-78 61%     8 - 1 +23.8 +16.7 +6.6
  Sat, Dec 13 76 Memphis W 99-73 88%     9 - 1 +30.5 +28.1 +1.9
  Tue, Dec 16 15 @Tennessee L 62-83 39%     9 - 2 -0.5 +0.9 -1.8
  Sat, Dec 20 202 Montana W 94-71 99%    
  Tue, Dec 30 80 @California W 83-76 75%    
  Fri, Jan 2 89 @Stanford W 85-77 79%    
  Tue, Jan 6 2 Duke L 78-80 43%    
  Sat, Jan 10 151 Boston College W 85-65 97%    
  Tue, Jan 13 25 Virginia W 83-77 70%    
  Sat, Jan 17 102 @Pittsburgh W 82-72 82%    
  Sat, Jan 24 64 Virginia Tech W 87-75 86%    
  Mon, Jan 26 2 @Duke L 75-83 23%    
  Sat, Jan 31 41 SMU W 87-79 78%    
  Wed, Feb 4 56 Notre Dame W 81-70 83%    
  Sat, Feb 7 52 @Wake Forest W 83-79 64%    
  Mon, Feb 9 29 North Carolina St. W 86-80 71%    
  Sat, Feb 14 32 Baylor W 86-82 64%    
  Tue, Feb 17 41 @SMU W 84-82 59%    
  Sat, Feb 21 127 Georgia Tech W 88-70 95%    
  Mon, Feb 23 22 @North Carolina L 79-80 47%    
  Sat, Feb 28 37 @Clemson W 76-74 57%    
  Tue, Mar 3 72 Syracuse W 85-72 87%    
  Sat, Mar 7 34 @Miami (FL) W 82-81 55%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.5 5.3 2.2 0.4 16.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.4 8.3 5.1 1.0 0.0 19.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.7 7.6 4.0 0.4 0.0 16.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.7 6.0 3.9 0.5 12.1 4th
5th 0.5 4.2 4.2 0.8 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 4.0 1.3 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.3 2.2 0.1 6.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.9 0.7 0.0 3.0 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.1 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 1.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 13th
14th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.9 5.5 8.8 12.8 15.9 17.0 15.1 11.1 6.3 2.3 0.4 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.6% 2.2    2.0 0.2
16-2 84.5% 5.3    3.6 1.6 0.1 0.0
15-3 50.0% 5.5    2.2 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-4 15.8% 2.4    0.4 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 1.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.2% 16.2 8.8 5.4 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 46.5% 53.5% 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.3% 100.0% 38.1% 61.9% 1.7 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 6.3% 100.0% 31.6% 68.4% 2.2 1.6 2.6 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 11.1% 100.0% 24.9% 75.1% 2.8 1.2 3.0 4.2 2.2 0.5 0.0 100.0%
14-4 15.1% 100.0% 21.1% 78.9% 3.5 0.4 2.1 5.0 5.0 2.1 0.5 0.1 100.0%
13-5 17.0% 100.0% 15.8% 84.2% 4.4 0.1 0.7 3.2 5.6 4.8 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 15.9% 99.9% 11.4% 88.5% 5.3 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.1 4.8 4.2 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 12.8% 99.6% 8.0% 91.5% 6.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.8 3.6 3.1 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.5%
10-8 8.8% 97.8% 6.2% 91.6% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.5 2.3 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 97.7%
9-9 5.5% 92.7% 3.7% 89.0% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.4 92.4%
8-10 2.9% 75.7% 1.7% 74.0% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.7 75.3%
7-11 1.3% 44.2% 2.1% 42.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.7 43.0%
6-12 0.5% 16.4% 16.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 16.4%
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 97.3% 15.4% 81.9% 4.9 4.6 9.5 15.6 17.4 15.8 12.3 8.9 5.8 3.7 2.3 1.3 0.1 2.7 96.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 88.2 11.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 70.4 29.6