Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.0#256
Expected Predictive Rating-12.3#340
Pace68.3#178
Improvement+0.3#140

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#291
First Shot-2.3#260
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#276
Layup/Dunks-1.3#236
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#237
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#265
Freethrows+2.1#48
Improvement+0.7#62

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#219
First Shot-2.2#250
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#91
Layups/Dunks-0.1#188
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#231
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#294
Freethrows+1.2#94
Improvement-0.4#250
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 91.5% 71.8% 95.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Notre Dame (Away) - 16.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 50 - 5
Quad 1b0 - 50 - 10
Quad 20 - 70 - 17
Quad 30 - 61 - 23
Quad 43 - 54 - 27


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2022 247   Bellarmine L 66-67 59%     0 - 1 -8.2 -2.1 -6.2
  Nov 12, 2022 211   Wright St. L 72-73 49%     0 - 2 -5.6 -9.9 +4.4
  Nov 15, 2022 182   Appalachian St. L 60-61 43%     0 - 3 -4.0 -8.0 +3.9
  Nov 21, 2022 22   Arkansas L 54-80 5%     0 - 4 -12.5 -10.8 -1.5
  Nov 22, 2022 56   Texas Tech L 38-70 10%     0 - 5 -22.7 -28.0 +4.7
  Nov 23, 2022 63   Cincinnati L 62-81 11%     0 - 6 -10.4 -5.3 -5.3
  Nov 29, 2022 34   Maryland L 54-79 10%     0 - 7 -16.0 -14.5 -1.1
  Dec 04, 2022 32   Miami (FL) L 53-80 10%     0 - 8 0 - 1 -17.6 -21.6 +5.7
  Dec 10, 2022 134   @ Florida St. L 53-75 18%     0 - 9 0 - 2 -17.3 -17.4 -0.2
  Dec 14, 2022 176   Western Kentucky W 94-83 41%     1 - 9 +8.3 +17.1 -9.0
  Dec 17, 2022 358   Florida A&M W 61-55 90%     2 - 9 -12.7 -15.5 +2.9
  Dec 20, 2022 185   Lipscomb L 67-75 44%     2 - 10 -11.5 -6.4 -5.2
  Dec 22, 2022 38   @ North Carolina St. L 64-76 5%     2 - 11 0 - 3 +1.6 -1.7 +3.1
  Dec 31, 2022 28   @ Kentucky L 63-86 4%     2 - 12 -7.8 +2.0 -11.8
  Jan 03, 2023 73   Syracuse L 69-70 18%     2 - 13 0 - 4 +3.9 -5.0 +8.9
  Jan 07, 2023 66   Wake Forest L 72-80 16%     2 - 14 0 - 5 -2.5 +3.2 -6.2
  Jan 11, 2023 52   @ Clemson L 70-83 6%     2 - 15 0 - 6 -0.7 +5.3 -6.3
  Jan 14, 2023 23   North Carolina L 59-80 8%     2 - 16 0 - 7 -10.2 -11.1 +1.4
  Jan 18, 2023 67   Pittsburgh L 54-75 17%     2 - 17 0 - 8 -15.6 -15.0 -1.5
  Jan 25, 2023 149   @ Boston College L 65-75 21%     2 - 18 0 - 9 -6.3 +2.4 -9.7
  Jan 28, 2023 130   @ Notre Dame L 65-75 16%    
  Feb 01, 2023 138   Georgia Tech L 65-69 35%    
  Feb 04, 2023 134   Florida St. L 69-73 35%    
  Feb 07, 2023 67   @ Pittsburgh L 61-77 7%    
  Feb 11, 2023 32   @ Miami (FL) L 63-83 3%    
  Feb 15, 2023 18   Virginia L 55-71 7%    
  Feb 18, 2023 52   Clemson L 63-75 14%    
  Feb 20, 2023 31   @ Duke L 58-78 3%    
  Feb 25, 2023 138   @ Georgia Tech L 62-72 18%    
  Feb 28, 2023 48   Virginia Tech L 62-74 14%    
  Mar 04, 2023 18   @ Virginia L 52-74 2%    
Projected Record 4 - 27 2 - 18




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.1 1.3 2.1 0.6 0.1 4.1 13th
14th 0.3 5.3 6.9 2.0 0.2 14.7 14th
15th 19.1 34.3 22.0 4.8 0.3 80.6 15th
Total 19.1 34.6 27.4 13.0 4.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-16 4.5% 4.5
3-17 13.0% 13.0
2-18 27.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 27.4
1-19 34.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 34.6
0-20 19.1% 19.1
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 19.1%