Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.5#36
Expected Predictive Rating+12.4#47
Pace71.1#131
Improvement+2.9#23

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#97
First Shot+0.7#158
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#57
Layup/Dunks-2.2#247
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#91
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#132
Freethrows+0.4#156
Improvement+0.5#117

Defense
Total Defense+8.4#11
First Shot+9.4#9
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#247
Layups/Dunks+1.2#150
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#29
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#15
Freethrows-1.0#240
Improvement+2.4#22
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.7% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.2% 2.5% 0.6%
Top 2 Seed 3.4% 6.5% 2.0%
Top 4 Seed 12.2% 21.9% 7.8%
Top 6 Seed 26.9% 40.6% 20.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 70.6% 83.7% 64.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 67.8% 81.4% 61.9%
Average Seed 7.3 6.5 7.7
.500 or above 93.5% 97.4% 91.7%
.500 or above in Conference 83.9% 88.7% 81.8%
Conference Champion 11.5% 15.8% 9.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four4.8% 3.8% 5.2%
First Round68.1% 81.7% 61.9%
Second Round38.8% 49.3% 34.1%
Sweet Sixteen15.2% 22.0% 12.1%
Elite Eight5.8% 9.0% 4.4%
Final Four2.0% 3.4% 1.4%
Championship Game0.8% 1.5% 0.5%
National Champion0.4% 0.6% 0.3%

Next Game: Michigan St. (Away) - 31.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 7
Quad 26 - 311 - 10
Quad 36 - 217 - 11
Quad 44 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 292   Southern W 72-60 97%     1 - 0 +1.9 -9.2 +10.3
  Nov 12, 2021 105   Furman L 72-80 OT 83%     1 - 1 -6.7 -10.7 +4.9
  Nov 15, 2021 101   Navy W 77-60 83%     2 - 1 +18.5 +8.1 +10.5
  Nov 20, 2021 231   Detroit Mercy W 73-67 94%     3 - 1 -0.4 -5.9 +5.7
  Nov 25, 2021 38   Mississippi St. W 72-58 53%     4 - 1 +24.7 +2.3 +21.9
  Nov 27, 2021 52   Maryland W 63-55 61%     5 - 1 +16.7 -4.3 +21.0
  Dec 01, 2021 22   @ Michigan St. L 65-70 31%    
  Dec 04, 2021 64   @ North Carolina St. W 71-70 53%    
  Dec 10, 2021 86   DePaul W 77-69 78%    
  Dec 14, 2021 327   SE Louisiana W 82-57 99%    
  Dec 18, 2021 126   @ Western Kentucky W 73-67 70%    
  Dec 22, 2021 12   @ Kentucky L 66-73 26%    
  Dec 29, 2021 81   Wake Forest W 74-66 77%    
  Jan 01, 2022 88   @ Georgia Tech W 68-66 57%    
  Jan 05, 2022 200   Pittsburgh W 73-57 93%    
  Jan 08, 2022 31   @ Florida St. L 68-72 36%    
  Jan 12, 2022 64   North Carolina St. W 74-67 73%    
  Jan 15, 2022 200   @ Pittsburgh W 70-60 82%    
  Jan 19, 2022 125   Boston College W 72-60 86%    
  Jan 22, 2022 63   Notre Dame W 73-66 74%    
  Jan 24, 2022 40   @ Virginia L 58-60 42%    
  Jan 29, 2022 5   Duke L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 31, 2022 43   North Carolina W 78-74 64%    
  Feb 05, 2022 71   @ Syracuse W 75-74 55%    
  Feb 09, 2022 63   @ Notre Dame W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 16, 2022 120   Miami (FL) W 76-65 85%    
  Feb 19, 2022 50   Clemson W 68-62 69%    
  Feb 21, 2022 43   @ North Carolina L 75-77 43%    
  Feb 26, 2022 81   @ Wake Forest W 71-69 56%    
  Mar 01, 2022 27   @ Virginia Tech L 63-68 34%    
  Mar 05, 2022 40   Virginia W 61-57 64%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 1.9 3.1 3.3 1.9 0.7 0.1 11.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 3.7 4.8 3.2 1.1 0.1 14.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.2 5.3 3.2 0.5 0.1 14.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.9 5.6 2.1 0.3 12.5 4th
5th 0.3 2.6 5.4 2.4 0.4 11.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 4.7 2.6 0.4 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.0 2.7 0.5 0.0 6.9 7th
8th 0.3 1.8 2.8 0.9 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 2.1 1.1 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.4 2.2 1.3 0.1 4.0 10th
11th 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 1.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.3 13th
14th 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.8 4.5 6.3 9.1 11.6 13.3 13.8 12.1 10.1 6.7 4.4 2.0 0.7 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.1
18-2 92.8% 1.9    1.5 0.4
17-3 73.7% 3.3    1.9 1.2 0.1
16-4 46.0% 3.1    1.3 1.4 0.4 0.0
15-5 18.7% 1.9    0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1
14-6 5.1% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.5% 11.5 5.9 4.1 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 61.5% 38.5% 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.7% 100.0% 25.9% 74.1% 1.9 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 100.0%
18-2 2.0% 100.0% 33.8% 66.2% 2.7 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 100.0%
17-3 4.4% 100.0% 26.6% 73.4% 3.5 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 6.7% 99.7% 19.5% 80.2% 4.6 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.7 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
15-5 10.1% 99.4% 13.6% 85.7% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 2.0 2.6 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.1 99.3%
14-6 12.1% 98.5% 12.4% 86.2% 7.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.4 2.3 2.9 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.3%
13-7 13.8% 92.7% 7.8% 84.9% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 0.8 0.1 1.0 92.1%
12-8 13.3% 78.2% 5.5% 72.7% 9.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.9 2.3 2.9 1.7 0.2 2.9 76.9%
11-9 11.6% 61.9% 3.8% 58.0% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 1.3 2.0 2.0 0.4 0.0 4.4 60.3%
10-10 9.1% 35.0% 1.7% 33.2% 10.5 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.0 5.9 33.8%
9-11 6.3% 15.9% 1.3% 14.6% 10.9 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 5.3 14.8%
8-12 4.5% 3.4% 1.4% 2.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.4 2.0%
7-13 2.8% 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 12.1 0.0 0.0 2.8 0.1%
6-14 1.4% 1.4
5-15 0.7% 0.7
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 70.6% 8.8% 61.8% 7.3 1.2 2.2 3.8 5.0 6.6 8.1 8.4 9.6 8.6 9.2 6.4 1.6 0.1 29.4 67.8%