Notre Dame
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.9 #60
Expected Predictive Rating +11.0 #54
Pace 63.1 #334
Improvement -1.1 #249

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #99 B- C C C+ C-
Defense #37 B+ C+ A+ D B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #219 1.24 #99 +0.4 #162
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #119 0.79 #137 +1.6 #96
Three Pointers 40% #207 1.09 #87 +0.9 #153
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #102 +2.9 #101
Freethrows 17.1 #193 75% #120 12.8 #165
Second Chance 34.6% #80 0.92 #304 0.32 #164
Turnovers 16.1% #136
Total Offense +3.0 #99

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #348 1.06 #77 +6.7 #20
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #124 0.65 #56 +0.5 #166
Three Pointers 48% #27 0.95 #112 -2.1 #268
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #48 +5.1 #48
Freethrows 15.6 #101 73% #218 11.4 #116
Second Chance 21.4% #4 0.95 #82 0.20 #10
Turnovers 15.0% #286
Total Defense +5.9 #37

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1% #257 -1.8% #45
Shot Type Make Effect 6.7% #86 -8.2% #54
Possession Length 18.1 #269 18.0 #299
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #172 0.14 #68
Improvement -3.9 #360 +2.8 #26
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 1.4% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.5% 34.5% 18.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 25.0% 33.8% 17.7%
Average Seed 9.6 9.4 9.8
.500 or above 88.0% 94.5% 82.7%
.500 or above in Conference 60.3% 72.7% 50.2%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.6% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.2% 1.3%
First Four8.5% 10.4% 6.9%
First Round20.7% 28.7% 14.0%
Second Round8.2% 11.4% 5.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.7% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California (Away) - 45.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 9
Quad 24 - 38 - 12
Quad 35 - 112 - 13
Quad 46 - 119 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 200 LIU Brooklyn W 89-67 91%     14.8   1 - 0 +16.3 +11.7 +4.3
  Fri, Nov 7 277 Detroit Mercy W 102-70 94%     16.8   2 - 0 +22.7 +16.3 +3.9
  Tue, Nov 11 321 Eastern Illinois W 78-58 97%     7.4   3 - 0 +7.3 +12.6 -2.3
  Sun, Nov 16 31 @Ohio St. L 63-64 22%     2.5   3 - 1 +16.2 +0.0 +16.1
  Wed, Nov 19 267 Bellarmine W 86-79 94%     8.6   4 - 1 -1.9 +5.7 -7.5
  Mon, Nov 24 16 Kansas L 61-71 21%     -5.8   4 - 2 +7.4 +3.0 +3.7
  Tue, Nov 25 142 Rutgers W 68-63 78%     8.1   5 - 2 +6.0 +5.7 +1.0
  Wed, Nov 26 11 Houston L 56-66 17%     -11.9   5 - 3 +9.3 +3.2 +4.2
  Tue, Dec 2 62 Missouri W 76-71 62%     -1.5   6 - 3 +10.8 +4.8 +6.1
  Fri, Dec 5 48 @TCU W 87-85 OT 32%     -2.0   7 - 3 +15.8 +17.5 -1.8
  Wed, Dec 10 171 Idaho W 80-65 88%     4.7   8 - 3 +11.0 +13.3 -0.5
  Sat, Dec 13 252 Evansville W 82-58 93%     10.6   9 - 3 +16.0 +11.3 +5.9
  Sun, Dec 21 214 Purdue Fort Wayne L 69-72 92%     -3.6   9 - 4 -9.4 -7.6 -1.8
  Tue, Dec 30 91 @Stanford W 47-40 50%     5.1   10 - 4 1 - 0 +15.9 -10.7 +28.0
  Fri, Jan 2 77 @California L 68-69 45%    
  Sat, Jan 10 41 Clemson L 65-66 49%    
  Tue, Jan 13 37 Miami (FL) L 70-71 47%    
  Sat, Jan 17 73 @Virginia Tech L 69-71 44%    
  Wed, Jan 21 22 @North Carolina L 64-74 18%    
  Sat, Jan 24 160 Boston College W 71-59 86%    
  Tue, Jan 27 25 Virginia L 68-71 38%    
  Sat, Jan 31 74 @Syracuse L 68-70 45%    
  Wed, Feb 4 12 @Louisville L 67-80 12%    
  Sat, Feb 7 110 Florida St. W 78-70 78%    
  Tue, Feb 10 34 @SMU L 69-76 25%    
  Sat, Feb 14 125 Georgia Tech W 74-64 81%    
  Sat, Feb 21 82 @Pittsburgh L 66-67 47%    
  Tue, Feb 24 5 Duke L 64-74 18%    
  Sat, Feb 28 27 North Carolina St. L 71-74 39%    
  Wed, Mar 4 91 Stanford W 72-66 71%    
  Sat, Mar 7 160 @Boston College W 68-62 70%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.1 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 2.9 1.3 0.1 5.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.3 2.6 0.3 6.7 5th
6th 0.2 2.8 4.7 0.9 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 5.5 2.9 0.1 10.2 7th
8th 0.4 4.6 4.7 0.6 10.4 8th
9th 0.1 3.1 6.5 1.8 0.0 11.6 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 5.7 3.4 0.2 0.0 10.2 10th
11th 0.4 3.1 5.0 0.6 0.0 9.2 11th
12th 0.0 1.3 4.2 1.4 0.0 6.9 12th
13th 0.4 2.7 2.1 0.2 5.4 13th
14th 0.1 1.1 2.1 0.5 0.0 3.7 14th
15th 0.3 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.4 15th
16th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.1 1.4 16th
17th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.8 17th
18th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 18th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.9 7.2 11.0 15.8 16.9 15.7 12.9 7.6 4.3 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 85.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1
15-3 43.2% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1
14-4 15.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
13-5 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.2% 100.0% 9.5% 90.5% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.7% 98.6% 1.4% 97.3% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.6%
14-4 2.0% 96.5% 4.5% 92.0% 7.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 96.3%
13-5 4.3% 85.4% 4.6% 80.8% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.6 84.7%
12-6 7.6% 71.7% 1.6% 70.1% 9.5 0.1 0.1 0.8 1.6 2.0 0.9 0.0 2.2 71.2%
11-7 12.9% 49.2% 1.0% 48.2% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.8 2.1 0.0 6.5 48.7%
10-8 15.7% 30.2% 0.6% 29.5% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.7 2.5 0.1 10.9 29.7%
9-9 16.9% 11.3% 0.2% 11.1% 10.8 0.1 0.4 1.3 0.1 15.0 11.1%
8-10 15.8% 2.9% 0.1% 2.8% 11.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 15.4 2.8%
7-11 11.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 10.9 0.3%
6-12 7.2% 7.2
5-13 3.9% 0.3% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 3.8
4-14 1.3% 1.3
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.5% 0.8% 24.8% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.1 4.8 7.7 7.4 0.3 74.5 25.0%