Notre Dame
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.6#55
Expected Predictive Rating+13.5#38
Pace63.8#321
Improvement+0.6#136

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#66
First Shot+3.5#83
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#87
Layup/Dunks+1.4#122
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#305
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#63
Freethrows+0.5#142
Improvement+0.4#140

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#58
First Shot+2.6#93
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#57
Layups/Dunks+7.1#20
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#174
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#340
Freethrows+0.4#155
Improvement+0.2#174
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.9% 3.1% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.9% 36.8% 22.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 35.3% 36.2% 22.5%
Average Seed 9.1 9.1 9.5
.500 or above 92.2% 93.1% 79.0%
.500 or above in Conference 59.2% 60.0% 47.6%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.2% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 1.3% 2.2%
First Four9.6% 9.8% 6.5%
First Round30.8% 31.5% 19.3%
Second Round13.3% 13.7% 7.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.8% 2.9% 1.3%
Elite Eight0.9% 0.9% 0.5%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Purdue Fort Wayne (Home) - 93.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 9
Quad 24 - 38 - 12
Quad 35 - 113 - 13
Quad 47 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 211 LIU Brooklyn W 89-67 92%     1 - 0 +15.7 +12.1 +3.3
  Fri, Nov 7 291 Detroit Mercy W 102-70 96%     2 - 0 +21.8 +15.6 +3.6
  Tue, Nov 11 333 Eastern Illinois W 78-58 97%     3 - 0 +6.5 +12.4 -2.9
  Sun, Nov 16 31 @Ohio St. L 63-64 25%     3 - 1 +15.6 +0.2 +15.4
  Wed, Nov 19 294 Bellarmine W 86-79 96%     4 - 1 -3.3 +5.2 -8.4
  Mon, Nov 24 17 Kansas L 61-71 24%     4 - 2 +6.9 +2.6 +3.6
  Tue, Nov 25 132 Rutgers W 68-63 77%     5 - 2 +6.7 +5.2 +2.2
  Wed, Nov 26 8 Houston L 56-66 17%     5 - 3 +9.9 +4.6 +3.5
  Tue, Dec 2 48 Missouri W 76-71 56%     6 - 3 +13.0 +5.8 +7.4
  Fri, Dec 5 53 @TCU W 87-85 OT 37%     7 - 3 +15.0 +17.6 -2.6
  Wed, Dec 10 174 Idaho W 80-65 89%     8 - 3 +11.0 +12.0 +0.8
  Sat, Dec 13 274 Evansville W 82-58 95%     9 - 3 +15.0 +10.7 +5.6
  Sun, Dec 21 223 Purdue Fort Wayne W 83-67 94%    
  Tue, Dec 30 93 @Stanford W 74-73 53%    
  Fri, Jan 2 80 @California L 71-72 47%    
  Sat, Jan 10 35 Clemson L 67-68 51%    
  Tue, Jan 13 33 Miami (FL) L 72-73 48%    
  Sat, Jan 17 63 @Virginia Tech L 72-74 43%    
  Wed, Jan 21 23 @North Carolina L 68-77 21%    
  Sat, Jan 24 148 Boston College W 73-61 86%    
  Tue, Jan 27 27 Virginia L 71-73 42%    
  Sat, Jan 31 68 @Syracuse L 70-71 45%    
  Wed, Feb 4 10 @Louisville L 70-82 13%    
  Sat, Feb 7 105 Florida St. W 81-72 77%    
  Tue, Feb 10 38 @SMU L 72-77 31%    
  Sat, Feb 14 131 Georgia Tech W 75-64 84%    
  Sat, Feb 21 107 @Pittsburgh W 70-67 59%    
  Tue, Feb 24 2 Duke L 65-75 19%    
  Sat, Feb 28 29 North Carolina St. L 74-76 45%    
  Wed, Mar 4 93 Stanford W 77-70 74%    
  Sat, Mar 7 148 @Boston College W 70-64 70%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.1 0.7 0.0 4.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 3.1 1.4 0.1 5.6 4th
5th 0.5 3.4 2.9 0.3 7.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 4.4 0.8 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 5.3 2.2 0.1 9.0 7th
8th 0.5 4.3 4.6 0.5 9.9 8th
9th 0.1 2.5 5.7 1.8 0.0 10.1 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 4.9 3.3 0.3 9.4 10th
11th 0.3 3.1 4.3 1.0 0.0 8.7 11th
12th 0.0 1.3 4.0 1.8 0.1 7.3 12th
13th 0.4 2.7 2.4 0.2 5.7 13th
14th 0.1 1.4 2.3 0.6 0.0 4.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.9 0.1 3.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.1 2.0 16th
17th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.0 4.4 7.7 11.3 14.3 15.7 14.9 11.7 8.3 4.9 2.2 1.1 0.2 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
16-2 84.9% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 43.8% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1
14-4 11.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 3.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 100.0% 9.6% 90.4% 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.1% 100.0% 7.6% 92.4% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.2% 98.4% 5.5% 92.8% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.3%
13-5 4.9% 93.4% 4.2% 89.2% 7.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.3 93.1%
12-6 8.3% 86.6% 2.6% 84.1% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.3 1.8 0.5 1.1 86.3%
11-7 11.7% 68.9% 1.0% 67.9% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.2 2.9 1.7 0.0 3.6 68.6%
10-8 14.9% 47.7% 0.8% 46.9% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.7 2.8 0.1 7.8 47.3%
9-9 15.7% 25.5% 0.3% 25.2% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.3 0.1 11.7 25.3%
8-10 14.3% 8.5% 0.2% 8.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.1 13.1 8.4%
7-11 11.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 10.9 0.0 0.1 11.2 0.8%
6-12 7.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 7.6 0.1%
5-13 4.4% 4.4
4-14 2.0% 2.0
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 35.9% 1.0% 35.0% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.0 5.0 7.1 9.5 8.3 0.2 64.1 35.3%