Notre Dame
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.0#77
Expected Predictive Rating+9.7#64
Pace62.0#338
Improvement-0.1#149

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#27
First Shot+8.8#12
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#288
Layup/Dunks+4.4#43
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#267
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#40
Freethrows+1.4#91
Improvement-0.2#261

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#184
First Shot-2.1#242
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#51
Layups/Dunks-2.7#281
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#299
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#215
Freethrows+2.8#37
Improvement+0.1#66
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.3% 1.7% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.6% 26.0% 12.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 18.9% 23.1% 10.0%
Average Seed 9.8 9.6 10.4
.500 or above 85.0% 90.7% 73.1%
.500 or above in Conference 59.8% 69.0% 40.2%
Conference Champion 1.6% 2.2% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.7% 3.2%
First Four6.0% 6.9% 3.9%
First Round18.4% 22.2% 10.1%
Second Round7.2% 8.9% 3.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 2.1% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Syracuse (Home) - 68.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 6
Quad 24 - 35 - 9
Quad 36 - 312 - 12
Quad 47 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2022 208   Radford W 79-76 87%     1 - 0 -2.1 +10.2 -12.1
  Nov 13, 2022 139   Youngstown St. W 88-81 77%     2 - 0 +6.1 +10.7 -4.6
  Nov 16, 2022 222   Southern Indiana W 82-70 89%     3 - 0 +5.8 +6.6 -0.8
  Nov 18, 2022 163   Lipscomb W 66-65 82%     4 - 0 -1.6 +0.1 -1.5
  Nov 22, 2022 271   Bowling Green W 82-66 92%     5 - 0 +7.5 +9.9 -1.4
  Nov 25, 2022 108   St. Bonaventure L 51-63 60%     5 - 1 -7.6 -11.6 +2.3
  Nov 30, 2022 37   Michigan St. W 70-52 47%     6 - 1 +25.8 +10.7 +17.7
  Dec 03, 2022 97   Syracuse W 71-66 68%    
  Dec 07, 2022 256   Boston University W 74-59 92%    
  Dec 11, 2022 21   Marquette L 72-76 35%    
  Dec 18, 2022 123   Georgia W 69-65 63%    
  Dec 21, 2022 188   @ Florida St. W 74-69 67%    
  Dec 27, 2022 136   Jacksonville W 66-58 75%    
  Dec 30, 2022 36   Miami (FL) L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 03, 2023 151   @ Boston College W 67-64 60%    
  Jan 07, 2023 22   @ North Carolina L 68-78 18%    
  Jan 10, 2023 113   Georgia Tech W 71-65 71%    
  Jan 14, 2023 97   @ Syracuse L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 17, 2023 188   Florida St. W 77-66 84%    
  Jan 21, 2023 151   Boston College W 70-61 79%    
  Jan 24, 2023 31   @ North Carolina St. L 71-80 22%    
  Jan 28, 2023 210   Louisville W 73-61 87%    
  Feb 04, 2023 66   Wake Forest W 75-73 57%    
  Feb 08, 2023 113   @ Georgia Tech W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 11, 2023 59   Virginia Tech W 68-67 54%    
  Feb 14, 2023 18   @ Duke L 63-74 16%    
  Feb 18, 2023 14   @ Virginia L 57-70 14%    
  Feb 22, 2023 22   North Carolina L 71-75 35%    
  Feb 25, 2023 66   @ Wake Forest L 72-76 36%    
  Mar 01, 2023 106   Pittsburgh W 72-66 69%    
  Mar 04, 2023 76   @ Clemson L 68-71 39%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.4 3rd
4th 0.3 2.2 3.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 8.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.9 2.5 0.4 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 5.0 3.7 0.5 0.0 11.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 4.7 4.0 0.9 0.0 10.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.8 5.0 1.3 0.1 11.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.6 1.9 0.1 9.8 9th
10th 0.2 1.9 4.4 2.4 0.2 0.0 9.0 10th
11th 0.1 1.1 3.1 2.3 0.4 0.0 7.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.8 2.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.8 4.9 7.6 10.6 12.4 13.8 12.9 12.0 8.7 6.3 3.6 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 90.5% 0.0    0.0
18-2 89.4% 0.2    0.1 0.0
17-3 57.3% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
16-4 33.4% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 9.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 1.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.0% 100.0% 9.5% 90.5% 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.2% 100.0% 9.6% 90.4% 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.7% 98.8% 12.2% 86.6% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.6%
16-4 1.6% 95.8% 8.6% 87.2% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 95.4%
15-5 3.6% 87.9% 7.8% 80.1% 8.6 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.4 86.8%
14-6 6.3% 71.0% 6.8% 64.2% 9.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.4 0.9 0.1 1.8 68.9%
13-7 8.7% 52.2% 4.9% 47.3% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.2 49.7%
12-8 12.0% 29.5% 3.9% 25.6% 10.7 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.7 0.6 0.0 8.4 26.6%
11-9 12.9% 15.3% 3.7% 11.6% 11.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 10.9 12.1%
10-10 13.8% 5.9% 2.9% 3.0% 11.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 13.0 3.1%
9-11 12.4% 2.7% 2.2% 0.5% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.0 0.5%
8-12 10.6% 1.8% 1.7% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.4 0.0%
7-13 7.6% 1.5% 1.5% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.5
6-14 4.9% 0.8% 0.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 4.9
5-15 2.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.8
4-16 1.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 21.6% 3.4% 18.2% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.2 3.5 4.9 5.8 2.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 78.4 18.9%