North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +16.5 #23
Expected Predictive Rating +14.3 #36
Pace 71.5 #104
Improvement +0.2 #177

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #18 A- B A C+ B-
Defense #39 B- B A- C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #141 1.29 #61 +3.3 #74
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #288 0.74 #206 -2.1 #283
Three Pointers 45% #105 1.20 #12 +6.0 #25
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #20 +7.2 #20
Freethrows 0.32 #154 76% #50 0.24 #107
Second Chance 30.5% #183 1.25 #9 0.38 #51
Turnovers 12.7% #8
Total Offense +10.1 #18

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #294 1.03 #43 +4.4 #49
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #328 0.71 #98 +2.3 #25
Three Pointers 50% #10 1.01 #164 -4.3 #335
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #100 +2.4 #101
Freethrows 0.30 #187 67% #12 0.20 #119
Second Chance 25.4% #25 0.98 #110 0.25 #39
Turnovers 21.2% #19
Total Defense +6.4 #39

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #77 0.8% #236
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 12.4% #25 -5.5% #76
Possession Length 15.5 #33 18.4 #328
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #64 0.17 #184
Improvement +0.0 #181 +0.1 #180

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 12.7% 14.8% 2.8%
Top 6 Seed 47.3% 51.0% 29.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.5% 98.7% 97.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.3% 98.5% 97.3%
Average Seed 6.6 6.4 7.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 3.3% 3.9% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 0.4% 1.7%
First Round98.2% 98.5% 96.8%
Second Round68.6% 70.6% 59.0%
Sweet Sixteen25.6% 27.2% 17.9%
Elite Eight10.9% 11.7% 6.9%
Final Four3.8% 4.0% 2.5%
Championship Game1.5% 1.6% 0.9%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

Next Game: Virginia Tech (Home) - 82.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 35 - 8
Quad 210 - 115 - 9
Quad 34 - 119 - 10
Quad 44 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 342 NC Central W 114 - 65 99% +28  1 - 0 +34 +30 A+ A+ A+ +3 C- C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 119 UAB W 94 - 70 93% +11  2 - 0 +24 +15 A+ A+ D+ +7 B+ C+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 310 UNC Greensboro W 110 - 64 99% +15  3 - 0 +34 +22 B A+ A+ +9 A+ B+ A+
 Mon, Nov 17 53 Virginia Commonwealth W 85 - 79 81% +4  4 - 0 +13 +10 C+ A+ F +3 B B C+
 Mon, Nov 24 55 Seton Hall L 74 - 85 74% -8  4 - 1 -1 +7 B D A+ -7 D F+ B+
 Tue, Nov 25 59 Boise St. W 81 - 70 76% +5  5 - 1 +20 +12 A+ D- B +8 C+ A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 30 Texas L 97 - 102 57% -4  5 - 2 +10 +25 A+ A+ A+ -15 F C F
 Wed, Dec 3 28 @Auburn L 73 - 83 42% -5  5 - 3 +9 +6 C+ F A+ +2 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 209 UNC Asheville W 75 - 63 97% +3  6 - 3 +6 +2 D+ A+ C- +4 A- C+ B
 Wed, Dec 10 92 Liberty W 85 - 45 89% +25  7 - 3 +43 +14 A F A+ +31 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 11 Kansas L 76 - 77 OT 53% -1  7 - 4 +15 +7 B C A+ +8 B A+ D-
 Wed, Dec 17 311 Texas Southern W 108 - 72 99% +24  8 - 4 +24 +27 A A+ A+ -3 B+ F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 60 Mississippi W 76 - 62 76% +15  9 - 4 +23 +8 A+ B+ F+ +15 B- A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 31 75 Wake Forest W 70 - 57 86% +7  10 - 4 1 - 0 +18 -2 C F C +20 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 22 Virginia L 61 - 76 61% -13  10 - 5 1 - 1 -1 -1 D C B- -2 C- D+ A+
 Tue, Jan 6 125 @Boston College W 79 - 71 85% +7  11 - 5 2 - 1 +13 +25 A+ A+ A+ -11 F D- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 101 @Florida St. W 113 - 69 80% +24  12 - 5 3 - 1 +52 +33 A+ A+ A+ +15 A+ C B
 Sat, Jan 17 115 Georgia Tech L 74 - 78 93% -1  12 - 6 3 - 2 -4 -1 C D- B+ -2 F+ C+ A
 Tue, Jan 20 36 @Clemson W 80 - 76 OT 48% +3  13 - 6 4 - 2 +21 +16 A- F+ A+ +5 B- C B+
 Sat, Jan 24 93 @Pittsburgh W 81 - 72 77% -1  14 - 6 5 - 2 +18 +15 B- C A+ +3 A+ F A-
 Tue, Jan 27 68 Syracuse W 88 - 68 85% +7  15 - 6 6 - 2 +25 +17 A+ A- B+ +8 A+ D- C
 Sat, Jan 31 75 @Wake Forest W 96 - 78 71% +11  16 - 6 7 - 2 +29 +29 A+ B A+ -0 C+ B D+
 Tue, Feb 3 39 @SMU W 84 - 83 50% -1  17 - 6 8 - 2 +17 +16 A- B- A+ +1 D+ A+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 58 Virginia Tech W 83 - 73 83%
 Mon, Feb 9 16 @Louisville L 80 - 84 34%
 Sat, Feb 14 40 Miami (FL) W 83 - 76 73%
 Tue, Feb 17 29 North Carolina W 83 - 79 66%
 Tue, Feb 24 22 @Virginia L 74 - 77 39%
 Sat, Feb 28 81 @Notre Dame W 78 - 71 72%
 Mon, Mar 2 3 Duke L 74 - 78 36%
 Sat, Mar 7 82 Stanford W 84 - 71 88%
Totals 22 - 9 13 - 5 +16 +10 A- B A +6 B- B A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.5 1.6 1.2 3.3 1st
2nd 0.2 4.1 12.6 7.4 0.5 24.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.6 13.7 7.8 0.6 24.6 3rd
4th 0.9 11.5 10.9 1.0 24.2 4th
5th 0.1 4.0 8.1 0.8 13.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.2 0.9 5.9 6th
7th 0.2 1.4 1.2 0.0 2.8 7th
8th 0.2 0.7 0.2 1.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.1 0.6 3.1 10.5 23.1 29.5 22.0 9.6 1.7 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 69.6% 1.2    0.5 0.7 0.0
15-3 16.3% 1.6    0.1 0.9 0.5 0.1
14-4 2.4% 0.5    0.2 0.3 0.1
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 0.6 1.7 0.8 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 1.7% 100.0% 13.7% 86.3% 3.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 9.6% 100.0% 16.8% 83.2% 4.4 0.1 0.3 1.8 3.0 2.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 22.0% 100.0% 15.0% 85.0% 5.5 0.1 1.1 3.5 5.5 6.8 4.0 0.9 0.1 100.0%
13-5 29.5% 99.9% 9.0% 90.9% 6.5 0.1 1.1 4.3 8.8 9.1 4.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 23.1% 98.6% 6.3% 92.3% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.4 6.7 7.1 3.7 0.8 0.1 0.3 98.5%
11-7 10.5% 94.4% 3.4% 90.9% 8.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.6 3.0 3.1 1.4 0.1 0.6 94.2%
10-8 3.1% 87.6% 2.9% 84.7% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.4 87.2%
9-9 0.6% 72.6% 72.6% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 72.6%
8-10 0.1% 0.0 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 98.5% 9.7% 88.8% 6.6 1.5 98.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.0 26.1 47.8 26.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 3.1 17.3 53.8 26.9 1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 3.8 9.4 18.8 53.1 18.8