North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.1#39
Expected Predictive Rating+13.5#24
Pace73.3#57
Improvement-0.7#268

Offense
Total Offense+6.6#31
First Shot+6.9#21
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#207
Layup/Dunks+1.9#100
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#78
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#124
Freethrows+1.7#58
Improvement-0.2#227

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#61
First Shot+4.7#53
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#195
Layups/Dunks-1.4#242
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#121
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#10
Freethrows-0.5#231
Improvement-0.5#263
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.3% 2.6% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 10.9% 12.1% 2.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 76.7% 78.7% 63.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 74.3% 76.4% 60.3%
Average Seed 8.6 8.5 9.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.2% 99.1% 92.5%
Conference Champion 3.8% 4.3% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four12.9% 12.4% 16.2%
First Round70.3% 72.6% 54.6%
Second Round35.2% 36.8% 24.4%
Sweet Sixteen11.4% 12.1% 6.4%
Elite Eight4.4% 4.7% 2.3%
Final Four1.6% 1.7% 0.8%
Championship Game0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida St. (Home) - 87.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 6
Quad 26 - 29 - 8
Quad 34 - 013 - 8
Quad 410 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 314   Austin Peay W 99-50 97%     1 - 0 +38.0 +17.5 +18.4
  Nov 11, 2022 257   Campbell W 73-67 95%     2 - 0 -1.7 -3.7 +1.9
  Nov 15, 2022 226   Florida International W 107-74 93%     3 - 0 +27.2 +15.1 +7.1
  Nov 19, 2022 334   Elon W 74-63 98%     4 - 0 -2.1 -5.0 +2.9
  Nov 23, 2022 7   Kansas L 74-80 30%     4 - 1 +10.5 +5.5 +5.4
  Nov 24, 2022 61   Dayton W 76-64 59%     5 - 1 +20.7 +10.8 +10.1
  Nov 25, 2022 87   Butler W 76-61 70%     6 - 1 +20.8 +10.0 +11.3
  Nov 29, 2022 304   William & Mary W 85-64 97%     7 - 1 +10.5 +2.8 +7.0
  Dec 02, 2022 67   Pittsburgh L 60-68 71%     7 - 2 0 - 1 -2.6 -10.8 +8.3
  Dec 06, 2022 343   Coppin St. W 94-72 98%     8 - 2 +7.7 +6.5 -0.2
  Dec 10, 2022 35   @ Miami (FL) L 73-80 37%     8 - 3 0 - 2 +7.5 +5.1 +2.4
  Dec 13, 2022 93   Furman W 92-73 79%     9 - 3 +21.7 +6.5 +13.0
  Dec 17, 2022 85   Vanderbilt W 70-66 69%     10 - 3 +9.9 +6.4 +4.0
  Dec 22, 2022 261   Louisville W 76-64 95%     11 - 3 1 - 2 +4.1 +1.9 +2.5
  Dec 30, 2022 55   @ Clemson L 64-78 46%     11 - 4 1 - 3 -1.9 -2.8 +1.1
  Jan 04, 2023 22   Duke W 84-60 51%     12 - 4 2 - 3 +34.8 +14.9 +19.5
  Jan 07, 2023 46   @ Virginia Tech W 73-69 43%     13 - 4 3 - 3 +17.0 +7.9 +9.1
  Jan 14, 2023 35   Miami (FL) W 83-81 OT 58%     14 - 4 4 - 3 +11.1 +7.3 +3.7
  Jan 17, 2023 158   @ Georgia Tech W 78-66 77%     15 - 4 5 - 3 +15.3 +7.4 +7.7
  Jan 21, 2023 25   @ North Carolina L 69-80 32%     15 - 5 5 - 4 +4.9 +2.3 +2.7
  Jan 24, 2023 128   Notre Dame W 85-82 86%     16 - 5 6 - 4 +2.7 +6.6 -3.9
  Jan 28, 2023 70   @ Wake Forest W 79-77 52%     17 - 5 7 - 4 +12.7 +10.1 +2.7
  Feb 01, 2023 133   Florida St. W 82-70 87%    
  Feb 04, 2023 158   Georgia Tech W 78-65 90%    
  Feb 07, 2023 17   @ Virginia L 64-70 29%    
  Feb 11, 2023 148   @ Boston College W 74-67 74%    
  Feb 14, 2023 76   @ Syracuse W 76-75 54%    
  Feb 19, 2023 25   North Carolina W 78-77 53%    
  Feb 22, 2023 70   Wake Forest W 82-76 72%    
  Feb 25, 2023 55   Clemson W 76-72 68%    
  Feb 28, 2023 22   @ Duke L 70-75 31%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 13 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.3 0.9 3.8 1st
2nd 0.4 4.6 3.7 0.2 8.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 4.2 8.7 1.1 14.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 11.0 4.1 0.1 16.8 4th
5th 0.3 7.3 9.1 0.4 17.1 5th
6th 0.0 3.0 10.6 2.0 0.0 15.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 6.7 4.2 0.1 11.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.5 4.1 0.3 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.1 0.7 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.5 5.8 14.7 24.2 26.8 18.5 7.1 1.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 82.6% 0.9    0.5 0.4 0.1
15-5 31.7% 2.3    0.3 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
14-6 3.3% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.8% 3.8 0.8 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 1.1% 100.0% 20.6% 79.4% 3.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 7.1% 99.1% 13.4% 85.8% 5.7 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.9 2.0 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.0%
14-6 18.5% 95.4% 12.1% 83.4% 7.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.0 5.3 4.5 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.8 94.8%
13-7 26.8% 87.6% 9.3% 78.3% 8.8 0.1 0.5 2.5 5.6 7.4 5.9 1.5 0.0 3.3 86.3%
12-8 24.2% 73.8% 8.7% 65.1% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.4 7.3 4.2 0.1 6.3 71.3%
11-9 14.7% 52.2% 6.7% 45.5% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.1 3.5 0.1 7.0 48.8%
10-10 5.8% 29.1% 5.6% 23.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.1 4.1 24.9%
9-11 1.5% 11.4% 5.6% 5.8% 11.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4 6.2%
8-12 0.2% 8.9% 8.9% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.2
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 76.7% 9.4% 67.3% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.9 5.6 9.4 12.2 15.6 17.5 10.6 0.4 0.0 23.3 74.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 3.5 1.1 11.6 33.4 41.3 11.0 1.7