Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.2#31
Expected Predictive Rating+12.9#41
Pace72.1#99
Improvement-2.2#329

Offense
Total Offense+5.5#39
First Shot+2.8#101
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#44
Layup/Dunks+1.0#130
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#107
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#120
Freethrows-1.1#246
Improvement-0.8#262

Defense
Total Defense+6.7#29
First Shot+8.9#12
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#306
Layups/Dunks+8.5#2
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#209
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#184
Freethrows+0.7#150
Improvement-1.4#296
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
#1 Seed 1.4% 1.6% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 3.9% 4.6% 1.5%
Top 4 Seed 13.8% 15.9% 6.5%
Top 6 Seed 28.6% 32.2% 15.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 72.4% 76.3% 59.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 69.1% 73.1% 55.6%
Average Seed 7.2 7.0 8.0
.500 or above 95.8% 97.2% 90.6%
.500 or above in Conference 85.9% 90.0% 71.7%
Conference Champion 13.4% 15.6% 5.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.7%
First Four6.8% 6.6% 7.4%
First Round69.2% 73.2% 55.5%
Second Round42.9% 46.1% 31.8%
Sweet Sixteen18.2% 20.0% 11.8%
Elite Eight7.4% 8.1% 4.8%
Final Four3.0% 3.3% 1.9%
Championship Game1.1% 1.2% 0.8%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

Next Game: Syracuse (Home) - 77.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 7
Quad 27 - 310 - 10
Quad 37 - 117 - 11
Quad 45 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 189   Penn W 105-70 93%     1 - 0 +30.7 +16.1 +10.2
  Nov 14, 2021 14   @ Florida L 55-71 27%     1 - 1 +2.5 -6.6 +8.7
  Nov 17, 2021 168   Tulane W 59-54 92%     2 - 1 +1.9 -6.9 +9.4
  Nov 21, 2021 130   Loyola Marymount W 73-45 82%     3 - 1 +30.3 -0.9 +31.3
  Nov 22, 2021 132   Missouri W 81-58 82%     4 - 1 +25.3 +14.4 +11.8
  Nov 24, 2021 144   Boston University W 81-80 OT 89%     5 - 1 -0.3 +1.7 -2.1
  Nov 30, 2021 2   @ Purdue L 65-93 15%     5 - 2 -4.4 +1.6 -6.7
  Dec 04, 2021 71   Syracuse W 81-73 78%    
  Dec 12, 2021 98   South Carolina W 78-71 75%    
  Dec 15, 2021 222   Lipscomb W 83-65 95%    
  Dec 18, 2021 65   Central Florida W 73-68 67%    
  Dec 21, 2021 288   North Florida W 85-63 98%    
  Dec 29, 2021 125   @ Boston College W 72-65 73%    
  Jan 01, 2022 64   @ North Carolina St. W 74-72 57%    
  Jan 04, 2022 81   @ Wake Forest W 74-72 60%    
  Jan 08, 2022 36   Louisville W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 11, 2022 120   Miami (FL) W 79-67 86%    
  Jan 15, 2022 71   @ Syracuse W 78-76 58%    
  Jan 17, 2022 5   Duke L 73-75 41%    
  Jan 22, 2022 120   @ Miami (FL) W 76-70 70%    
  Jan 26, 2022 88   @ Georgia Tech W 71-68 61%    
  Jan 29, 2022 27   Virginia Tech W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 02, 2022 50   @ Clemson W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 05, 2022 81   Wake Forest W 77-69 78%    
  Feb 09, 2022 200   Pittsburgh W 76-59 94%    
  Feb 12, 2022 43   @ North Carolina L 78-79 47%    
  Feb 15, 2022 50   Clemson W 71-65 70%    
  Feb 19, 2022 5   @ Duke L 70-78 24%    
  Feb 26, 2022 40   @ Virginia L 60-61 46%    
  Mar 02, 2022 63   Notre Dame W 76-68 76%    
  Mar 05, 2022 64   North Carolina St. W 77-69 75%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.7 3.8 2.5 0.6 0.1 13.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 3.5 5.4 3.7 1.1 0.1 14.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.6 5.5 3.0 0.7 0.0 14.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.6 6.0 2.5 0.4 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 5.7 2.4 0.4 10.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 4.2 2.5 0.3 0.1 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.8 2.7 0.5 0.0 6.6 7th
8th 0.3 1.8 2.7 0.6 5.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.2 0.8 0.1 3.7 9th
10th 0.3 1.5 1.2 0.2 3.2 10th
11th 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.3 2.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 1.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.9 13th
14th 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.8 6.2 8.3 10.4 13.0 14.4 12.5 10.9 8.1 4.9 2.6 0.6 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.5 0.0
18-2 96.4% 2.5    2.1 0.4 0.0
17-3 77.4% 3.8    2.6 1.0 0.2
16-4 46.1% 3.7    1.8 1.5 0.4 0.0
15-5 19.3% 2.1    0.6 1.1 0.4 0.0
14-6 4.1% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.4% 13.4 7.8 4.2 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 73.8% 26.2% 1.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.6% 100.0% 33.1% 66.9% 2.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.6% 100.0% 35.0% 65.0% 2.4 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.2 100.0%
17-3 4.9% 100.0% 29.0% 71.0% 3.4 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 8.1% 100.0% 22.4% 77.6% 4.7 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 10.9% 99.8% 17.1% 82.7% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.6 2.8 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-6 12.5% 97.0% 13.8% 83.2% 7.2 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.3 2.6 2.5 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.4 96.5%
13-7 14.4% 87.9% 7.6% 80.3% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.3 2.9 2.6 2.0 1.2 0.2 1.7 86.9%
12-8 13.0% 79.1% 5.7% 73.4% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.3 2.9 2.2 0.4 2.7 77.9%
11-9 10.4% 60.3% 6.2% 54.1% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.7 1.9 0.9 0.0 4.1 57.7%
10-10 8.3% 34.7% 1.9% 32.8% 10.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.0 5.4 33.4%
9-11 6.2% 13.5% 1.1% 12.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 5.3 12.5%
8-12 3.8% 2.9% 1.1% 1.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 1.8%
7-13 2.2% 2.2
6-14 1.2% 1.2
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 72.4% 10.7% 61.7% 7.2 1.4 2.5 4.4 5.6 6.6 8.1 8.7 8.9 8.3 8.3 7.1 2.5 0.1 27.6 69.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.4 64.5 35.5