Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.2#75
Expected Predictive Rating+7.3#84
Pace74.8#40
Improvement-1.6#262

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#103
First Shot+0.0#177
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#31
Layup/Dunks-2.1#270
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#83
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#186
Freethrows+0.5#146
Improvement+1.0#124

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#55
First Shot+3.7#59
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#107
Layups/Dunks+0.9#142
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#48
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#101
Freethrows-1.0#255
Improvement-2.6#304
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.4% 7.2% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.4% 4.0% 0.3%
Average Seed 11.4 10.9 12.8
.500 or above 69.6% 87.4% 45.7%
.500 or above in Conference 69.6% 87.4% 45.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.7% 2.9% 0.2%
First Round4.4% 5.6% 2.9%
Second Round1.2% 1.6% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina St. (Home) - 57.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 7
Quad 25 - 49 - 11
Quad 34 - 312 - 14
Quad 44 - 116 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 251   Kennesaw St. W 94-67 90%     1 - 0 +19.9 -0.2 +15.5
  Nov 13, 2023 264   Central Michigan W 94-67 91%     2 - 0 +19.1 +17.9 +0.1
  Nov 17, 2023 23   @ Florida L 68-89 20%     2 - 1 -5.0 -3.4 -0.3
  Nov 20, 2023 76   UNLV W 83-75 50%     3 - 1 +15.1 +12.6 +2.5
  Nov 21, 2023 31   Colorado W 77-71 OT 31%     4 - 1 +18.2 -2.4 +19.8
  Nov 29, 2023 77   Georgia L 66-68 61%     4 - 2 +2.3 -3.3 +5.6
  Dec 02, 2023 8   @ North Carolina L 70-78 12%     4 - 3 0 - 1 +12.1 +4.1 +8.4
  Dec 09, 2023 102   South Florida L 72-88 58%     4 - 4 -10.8 -5.5 -3.4
  Dec 16, 2023 43   SMU L 57-68 47%     4 - 5 -3.1 -8.3 +4.4
  Dec 19, 2023 241   North Florida W 91-75 90%     5 - 5 +9.4 +10.8 -1.7
  Dec 22, 2023 169   Winthrop W 67-61 83%     6 - 5 +2.8 -13.4 +15.8
  Dec 30, 2023 166   Lipscomb L 75-78 83%     6 - 6 -6.0 -2.6 -3.5
  Jan 03, 2024 126   Georgia Tech W 82-71 76%     7 - 6 1 - 1 +10.9 +6.5 +4.1
  Jan 06, 2024 57   Virginia Tech W 77-74 52%     8 - 6 2 - 1 +9.6 +4.2 +5.3
  Jan 09, 2024 19   Wake Forest W 87-82 35%     9 - 6 3 - 1 +16.2 +9.0 +6.7
  Jan 13, 2024 124   @ Notre Dame W 67-58 56%     10 - 6 4 - 1 +14.7 +5.7 +9.6
  Jan 17, 2024 74   @ Miami (FL) W 84-75 39%     11 - 6 5 - 1 +19.0 +8.8 +9.6
  Jan 20, 2024 26   Clemson L 67-78 38%     11 - 7 5 - 2 -0.8 -3.8 +3.2
  Jan 23, 2024 83   @ Syracuse W 85-69 41%     12 - 7 6 - 2 +25.6 +11.1 +13.4
  Jan 27, 2024 8   North Carolina L 68-75 24%     12 - 8 6 - 3 +7.6 +2.7 +5.0
  Feb 03, 2024 172   @ Louisville L 92-101 68%     12 - 9 6 - 4 -6.8 +2.4 -7.5
  Feb 06, 2024 92   @ Boston College W 63-62 43%     13 - 9 7 - 4 +9.9 -5.1 +15.1
  Feb 10, 2024 67   Virginia L 76-80 56%     13 - 10 7 - 5 +1.6 +19.6 -18.5
  Feb 13, 2024 57   @ Virginia Tech L 75-83 32%     13 - 11 7 - 6 +4.0 +10.7 -7.1
  Feb 17, 2024 9   Duke L 67-76 25%     13 - 12 7 - 7 +5.3 +1.9 +3.0
  Feb 20, 2024 92   Boston College W 84-76 64%     14 - 12 8 - 7 +11.5 +9.8 +1.6
  Feb 24, 2024 26   @ Clemson L 63-74 21%     14 - 13 8 - 8 +4.7 -2.8 +7.4
  Feb 27, 2024 68   North Carolina St. W 77-75 57%    
  Mar 02, 2024 126   @ Georgia Tech W 75-73 55%    
  Mar 05, 2024 50   @ Pittsburgh L 70-76 29%    
  Mar 09, 2024 74   Miami (FL) W 79-76 61%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 0.8 3rd
4th 0.7 3.2 3.9 4th
5th 0.0 6.8 2.5 9.3 5th
6th 2.3 14.2 0.2 16.7 6th
7th 0.1 14.7 4.2 19.0 7th
8th 2.7 16.0 0.1 18.7 8th
9th 0.6 12.6 3.8 17.1 9th
10th 3.5 8.5 0.1 12.1 10th
11th 1.8 0.5 2.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 6.0 24.4 36.9 26.0 6.7 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 6.7% 31.0% 4.0% 27.0% 10.2 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.8 0.0 4.6 28.2%
11-9 26.0% 5.3% 3.3% 1.9% 11.0 0.1 1.1 0.1 24.6 2.0%
10-10 36.9% 3.1% 3.0% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 35.8 0.1%
9-11 24.4% 2.7% 2.7% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 23.8
8-12 6.0% 2.2% 2.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.8
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.4% 3.1% 2.3% 11.4 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 94.6 2.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.7% 31.0% 10.2 0.3 3.4 15.9 11.4 0.1
Lose Out 6.0% 2.2% 15.0 0.1 2.1 0.1