Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.8 85
Expected Predictive Rating +6.9 82
Pace 76.9 20
Improvement +4.1 37

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 83 C+ B B+ C B
Defense B- 96 C+ B- B+ B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 190 B- 61% 92 +1.1 135
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 341 C 38% 177 -3.4 336
Three Pointers 50% 25 C- 32% 245 +3.5 69
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.1 47 C +0.1 168
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.04 129
Second Chance C+ 32.5% 121 B 1.14 48 B 0.37 64
Turnovers B+ 13.8% 26
Freethrows C 0.31 181 C+ 73% 159 C 0.23 158
Total Offense B- +3.9 83

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 42% 287 B- 9.6% 98
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F+ 10% 357 C- 6.3% 264
Three Pointers C+ 85% 174 D+ 1.4% 298
Total C 54% 205 C+ 5.1% 125

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 313 C+ 56% 138 -3.6 64
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 131 C 39% 199 +0.6 235
Three Pointers 45% 65 C 34% 190 +2.2 290
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 88 C -0.3 171
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.00 150
Second Chance C+ 29.4% 145 B 0.95 67 B- 0.28 78
Turnovers B+ 19.8% 38
Freethrows B- 0.28 91 C+ 71% 122 B- 0.20 82
Total Defense B- +2.8 96

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 282 A- 17.1% 27
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 203 C+ 5.7% 117
Three Pointers C- 86% 174 D+ 0.5% 298
Total D+ 60% 274 B- 7.2% 67

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.0 15 18.0 294
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 177 0.17 164
Improvement +2.8 #52 +1.3 #114

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 2% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1% 2% 0%
Average Seed 10.9 10.9 11.1
.500 or above 32% 64% 26%
.500 or above in Conference 29% 61% 22%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 2% 0%
First Round0% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Clemson (Away) - 16.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 42 - 10
Quad 24 - 56 - 15
Quad 32 - 18 - 17
Quad 47 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 350 Alcorn St. W 108 - 76 97% +17  91% 1 - 0 A- +16 A+ +16 B+ B- A+ C- -3 F D- A+
 Fri, Nov 7 306 Alabama St. W 101 - 64 95% +20  99% 2 - 0 A+ +25 A- +11 D+ A+ C- A +10 A D+ B+
 Tue, Nov 11 4 @Florida L 76 - 78 5% -1  34% 2 - 1 A+ +24 B- +4 D+ B- A A+ +20 A- A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 214 Tennessee Martin W 87 - 73 88% +6  79% 3 - 1 B +8 B +6 B C- A+ C+ +1 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 262 Georgia Southern W 98 - 72 92% +14  99% 4 - 1 A- +17 C +1 C C A A+ +12 B A+ A
 Tue, Nov 25 322 Cal St. Bakersfield W 89 - 59 96% +13  85% 5 - 1 A- +17 D -5 D B F+ A+ +17 A- D A+
 Fri, Nov 28 33 Texas A&M L 59 - 95 23% -22  0% 5 - 2 F -21 F -15 F B- D+ D+ -4 D F A+
 Tue, Dec 2 37 Georgia L 73 - 107 34% -19  5% 5 - 3 F -23 D- -7 D+ C A+ F -12 F+ F B+
 Sat, Dec 6 5 Houston L 67 - 82 8% -10  0% 5 - 4 B- +7 C+ +3 C A+ F B +5 F+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 180 Massachusetts L 95 - 103 78% -5  18% 5 - 5 D -9 B- +5 B+ D- B F -13 F F D+
 Tue, Dec 16 93 @Dayton L 69 - 97 43% -13  1% 5 - 6 F -19 D- -7 D D+ D- F+ -9 C- B D+
 Fri, Dec 19 365 Mississippi Valley W 96 - 49 99% +29  97% 6 - 6 A +20 B- +4 D+ C B+ A+ +14 B- B A+
 Mon, Dec 22 312 Jacksonville W 87 - 63 95% +18  97% 7 - 6 B+ +12 A +14 C A- B+ C +0 C A+ F
 Tue, Dec 30 32 @North Carolina L 66 - 79 15% -7  13% 7 - 7 0 - 1 C+ +5 C- -2 D A B- B+ +6 A C+ C-
 Sat, Jan 3 2 Duke L 87 - 91 9% -0  49% 7 - 8 0 - 2 A- +17 A+ +23 A+ A+ B- D -6 C- B A+
 Sat, Jan 10 24 North Carolina St. L 69 - 113 28% -24  0% 7 - 9 0 - 3 F -31 F+ -8 F+ A A- F -18 F F C-
 Tue, Jan 13 71 @Syracuse L 86 - 94 34% -1  44% 7 - 10 0 - 4 C+ +3 A +12 B+ A+ C F+ -8 F C+ A-
 Sat, Jan 17 64 Wake Forest L 68 - 69 54% +3  70% 7 - 11 0 - 5 C+ +5 C- -1 D A+ F+ B+ +5 B+ B F
 Tue, Jan 20 41 @Miami (FL) W 65 - 63 19% +0  46% 8 - 11 1 - 5 A +18 C- -2 B F C+ A+ +20 A+ A- A
 Sat, Jan 24 34 @SMU L 80 - 83 16% -4  12% 8 - 12 1 - 6 A- +15 A +12 B- B+ A+ B- +3 B A F+
 Wed, Jan 28 70 California W 63 - 61 57% +5  78% 9 - 12 2 - 6 B- +7 F+ -9 C F A+ A+ +16 A+ B- B-
 Sat, Jan 31 76 Stanford W 88 - 80 58% +7  72% 10 - 12 3 - 6 B+ +13 A+ +16 A+ A+ A+ D+ -4 D+ B C+
 Sat, Feb 7 84 @Notre Dame W 82 - 79 38% +8  95% 11 - 12 4 - 6 B+ +13 B+ +8 C+ C+ A+ B +5 A- A C
 Tue, Feb 10 22 Virginia L 58 - 61 25% +2  68% 11 - 13 4 - 7 B +11 F+ -8 F C- A A+ +19 A+ B- A
 Sat, Feb 14 57 @Virginia Tech W 92 - 69 30% +3  40% 12 - 13 5 - 7 A+ +35 A+ +30 A+ D- A+ A- +7 C A+ C+
 Tue, Feb 17 133 Boston College W 80 - 72 78% -7  11% 13 - 13 6 - 7 B- +7 A- +11 B B+ A- D+ -4 F+ A F
 Sat, Feb 21 38 @Clemson L 67 - 77 17%
 Tue, Feb 24 41 Miami (FL) L 79 - 82 37%
 Sat, Feb 28 138 @Georgia Tech W 83 - 81 59%
 Wed, Mar 4 99 @Pittsburgh L 75 - 76 45%
 Sat, Mar 7 34 SMU L 82 - 87 32%
Totals 15 - 16 8 - 10 +7 B- +4 A+ C B B- +3 C- C+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- B- C C- C 38% 21% 50% B C+ C+ B B B+ C C+ C B- C+ C C C 33% 22% 45% B- C+ C+ B B- B+ B- C+ B-
1.14 61% 38% 32% 0 +1 1.04 32% 1.1 .37 14% .31 73% .23 1.05 56% 39% 34% 0 -1 1.00 29% 0.9 .28 20% .28 71% .22
Nov
4		 Alcorn St. A+ B+ D- B+ B 54% 5% 40% A- B+ C- B+ B- A+ B D- C+ C- C+ F F F 30% 39% 32% A+ F D D D- A+ F A+ F
1.42 71% 33% 39% +10 +3 1.28 37% 1.4 .50 11% .37 68% .25 1.00 54% 53% 50% +12 -3 1.20 29% 1.0 .29 28% .49 59% .29
Nov
7		 Alabama St. A- A B- D- D+ 27% 8% 65% C D+ A A+ A+ C- F A+ F A A- A+ C+ A 33% 27% 40% B A B- F D+ B+ D+ A+ B-
1.29 71% 40% 30% 0 +1 1.03 44% 1.9 .82 19% .22 93% .21 0.82 44% 13% 32% -12 -1 0.75 29% 1.1 .31 22% .31 58% .18
Nov
11		 Florida B- D F+ F D- 39% 11% 50% A+ D+ D A+ B- A A A+ A+ A+ F B+ A+ A 41% 6% 53% C- A- A- A+ A+ A+ F B F
0.94 46% 29% 26% -12 +1 0.81 16% 1.1 .18 12% .35 84% .30 0.96 76% 33% 19% -5 +2 0.96 38% 0.5 .18 22% .51 69% .35
Nov
18		 Tennessee Martin B B- F C+ B- 45% 9% 46% A B C D+ C- A+ C F D C+ B+ F F F 31% 18% 51% C F C- F F A+ F F F
1.15 64% 20% 35% +2 +2 1.09 33% 0.9 .29 8% .33 57% .19 0.97 50% 63% 39% +6 0 1.13 37% 1.2 .43 34% .42 76% .32
Nov
21		 Georgia Southern C B F C C- 28% 3% 68% C+ C F+ A+ C A B F C- A+ B+ C B+ B 30% 13% 57% B B A A+ A+ A D+ F F
1.18 65% 0% 34% +1 +2 1.07 29% 1.3 .38 13% .40 66% .26 0.87 47% 43% 28% -8 0 0.88 21% 0.7 .14 20% .36 88% .32
Nov
25		 Cal St. Bakersfield D B- A+ F F+ 44% 2% 54% A D C+ B+ B F+ A A- A+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ 49% 31% 20% F+ A- D C- D A+ F A+ D-
1.10 63% 100% 24% -5 +3 0.98 38% 1.2 .46 21% .45 79% .36 0.73 55% 21% 11% -14 -1 0.73 36% 1.0 .36 35% .49 62% .30
Nov
28		 Texas A&M F F F F F 30% 14% 56% B- F B C B- D+ C F F D+ B+ A+ F D 41% 7% 52% C D F B+ F A+ F D F
0.78 41% 13% 22% -19 0 0.65 34% 0.9 .31 21% .29 47% .13 1.26 52% 0% 52% +9 +2 1.23 52% 0.8 .43 21% .42 80% .34
Dec
2		 Georgia D- D- C D D 46% 14% 40% A- D+ D B C A+ C+ F D F F F C- D- 45% 5% 50% F+ F+ F F F B+ C C- C
0.93 46% 38% 30% -8 +1 0.89 28% 1.0 .28 14% .27 50% .13 1.37 73% 67% 34% +9 +2 1.24 52% 1.4 .72 18% .33 76% .25
Dec
6		 Houston C+ C F F D+ 41% 5% 55% A+ C A+ A A+ F B- B+ B B C+ F F D- 38% 20% 42% F F+ B- A+ A+ A+ A+ C A
0.97 56% 0% 25% -10 +2 0.86 41% 1.1 .46 27% .36 72% .26 1.18 62% 55% 43% +11 0 1.24 36% 0.6 .21 19% .16 78% .12
Dec
13		 Massachusetts B- A+ F C- B 42% 7% 52% A- B+ A F D- B D- A+ C- F C A F F+ 49% 17% 34% F+ F D+ F F D+ C+ D- C
1.17 76% 25% 32% +5 +2 1.17 38% 0.5 .20 15% .33 83% .27 1.26 59% 30% 50% +7 +1 1.19 33% 1.6 .53 17% .31 71% .22
Dec
16		 Dayton D- F+ F B- D 35% 19% 46% B- D B- F D+ D- A+ C A+ F+ F A+ B C- 40% 13% 48% C C- A F B D+ F F F
0.88 47% 22% 36% -5 0 0.92 33% 0.8 .26 26% .46 70% .33 1.24 74% 17% 30% +1 +1 1.06 21% 1.3 .28 15% .71 85% .61
Dec
19		 Mississippi Valley B- A D- D- D 33% 11% 56% C+ D+ B- D C B+ D+ B C A+ F B A+ B- 24% 37% 39% C- B- D+ A+ B A+ F A+ D-
1.29 74% 33% 31% +2 +1 1.09 41% 1.1 .46 13% .37 79% .29 0.66 70% 33% 19% -8 -3 0.80 26% 0.6 .15 34% .45 55% .24
Dec
22		 Jacksonville A A+ D D+ C 29% 12% 59% C C A+ D A- B+ A A A+ C F F A+ D 15% 32% 53% A+ C B A+ A+ F B C B-
1.34 80% 33% 33% +5 +1 1.14 46% 0.9 .40 12% .46 77% .35 0.97 88% 59% 18% -2 -3 0.92 24% 0.6 .14 11% .24 71% .17
Dec
30		 North Carolina C- F A- F F+ 26% 13% 61% B+ D B- A+ A B- B- F C- B+ D+ C+ A+ A 37% 15% 48% C- A D- A- C+ C- B- C C+
0.95 36% 43% 27% -11 0 0.80 28% 1.3 .35 13% .23 57% .13 1.14 65% 38% 27% -3 +1 0.98 39% 0.9 .37 11% .32 70% .23
Jan
3		 Duke A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 32% 16% 52% B A+ A- A+ A+ B- A C- A- D B- F F D+ 37% 7% 57% B- C- C B+ B A+ F F F
1.25 56% 50% 46% +11 0 1.24 30% 1.8 .53 19% .28 69% .19 1.30 59% 67% 42% +9 +2 1.24 40% 1.1 .44 22% .46 92% .42
Jan
10		 North Carolina St. F+ C F F F 47% 8% 45% A- F+ F A+ A A- A+ C+ A+ F F C+ F F 22% 29% 49% A+ F F+ F F C- C- C- C-
0.89 54% 0% 22% -13 +2 0.80 15% 2.5 .38 17% .45 69% .31 1.46 77% 35% 55% +19 -2 1.36 37% 1.8 .67 12% .34 78% .26
Jan
13		 Syracuse A C+ F B B+ 45% 12% 43% B+ B+ A- A+ A+ C A+ C+ A+ F+ F F F F 39% 13% 48% D+ F F+ A C+ A- A B+ A
1.18 57% 17% 36% -2 +2 1.02 39% 1.4 .55 19% .46 74% .34 1.29 81% 71% 42% +19 +1 1.43 38% 0.8 .31 19% .25 60% .15
Jan
17		 Wake Forest C- A- A- F D+ 21% 21% 58% D- D A+ C A+ F+ A- A+ A+ B+ B F A B+ 23% 23% 54% A B+ A D- B F A+ B- A+
1.03 67% 44% 24% -6 -1 0.88 46% 1.0 .46 24% .38 89% .34 1.05 54% 62% 27% -1 -1 0.96 24% 1.3 .32 8% .20 75% .15
Jan
20		 Miami (FL) C- C A B B+ 41% 27% 33% C+ B F F F C+ C+ B+ B- A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 49% 24% 27% B A+ A+ F+ A- A A- D- B
0.94 55% 46% 38% +3 -1 1.06 13% 0.5 .07 19% .27 73% .20 0.91 58% 17% 23% -9 0 0.84 26% 1.2 .31 20% .27 73% .20
Jan
24		 SMU A A F C B- 30% 21% 48% C+ B- A+ D+ B+ A+ C- D C- B- C F C+ B+ 34% 17% 49% D B B- A A F+ F B- F+
1.18 71% 25% 33% +1 -1 1.02 42% 0.9 .37 12% .25 67% .17 1.22 61% 56% 35% +5 0 1.11 34% 0.8 .29 10% .38 74% .28
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 California F+ A C F C+ 27% 29% 44% F C C- F F A+ B+ F C- A+ A- A+ B+ A+ 19% 31% 50% A+ A+ A- F+ B- B- A B+ A
0.93 67% 38% 25% -4 -2 0.91 27% 0.3 .07 10% .34 52% .18 0.90 50% 25% 31% -8 -3 0.81 21% 1.3 .26 16% .26 73% .19
Jan
31		 Stanford A+ A A+ C- A+ 48% 11% 41% A+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ D+ D F D- F+ 25% 24% 51% A+ D+ C- A B C+ A+ A- A+
1.27 68% 80% 32% +8 +2 1.22 24% 2.0 .48 13% .48 79% .38 1.16 64% 46% 39% +8 -1 1.15 36% 0.8 .28 16% .16 67% .10
Feb
7		 Notre Dame B+ F+ F A C 29% 12% 59% B C+ D+ A C+ A+ B B- B+ B C D- A+ A 33% 20% 47% C- A- C A+ A C F A D+
1.13 47% 0% 40% -2 0 0.98 21% 1.2 .26 7% .33 77% .25 1.09 61% 45% 27% -2 0 0.96 33% 0.6 .21 17% .40 63% .25
Feb
10		 Virginia F+ D F F F 33% 17% 50% B+ F C- C- C- A A C+ A A+ A+ D+ A A+ 24% 18% 58% A A+ A+ F B- A A+ A A+
0.85 47% 22% 19% -17 0 0.67 24% 0.8 .20 12% .37 73% .27 0.90 42% 44% 28% -8 -1 0.84 32% 1.3 .42 21% .15 63% .09
Feb
14		 Virginia Tech A+ B A+ A+ A+ 46% 12% 42% A A+ F A D- A+ B+ C- B A- A+ B- F C 43% 24% 33% C C A+ A+ A+ C+ B F+ C+
1.42 63% 83% 55% +20 +2 1.46 17% 1.3 .22 8% .29 71% .20 1.07 43% 33% 56% +3 0 1.08 23% 0.6 .13 15% .27 80% .22
Feb
17		 Boston College A- D A+ C+ B+ 31% 16% 53% C+ B B A B+ A- A+ A+ A+ D+ B+ D F F 25% 36% 38% A+ F+ A+ B+ A F A- A+ A+
1.20 50% 57% 33% 0 0 1.02 31% 1.1 .34 12% .59 77% .46 1.08 50% 45% 48% +8 -3 1.13 20% 0.9 .18 10% .22 23% .05



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.2 0.4 0.6 6th
7th 0.3 2.2 0.2 2.7 7th
8th 0.1 4.5 2.9 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.1 8.2 13.1 1.1 22.5 9th
10th 2.2 17.1 3.6 0.0 22.9 10th
11th 0.1 9.8 7.7 0.1 17.7 11th
12th 1.7 11.2 0.9 13.8 12th
13th 4.5 3.9 0.0 8.4 13th
14th 3.1 0.3 3.4 14th
15th 0.2 0.0 0.2 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 9.6 27.6 34.1 21.6 6.4 0.7 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.7% 16.7% 1.4% 15.3% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 15.5%
10-8 6.4% 4.8% 0.1% 4.7% 11.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 6.1 4.7%
9-9 21.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.5% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 21.4 0.5%
8-10 34.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 34.1 0.0%
7-11 27.6% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 27.6
6-12 9.6% 0.1% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 9.6
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 10.9 99.4 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 38.1% 10.8 9.5 28.6
Lose Out 5.7%