Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +5.3 95
Expected Predictive Rating +5.1 92
Pace 77.5 16
Improvement +0.8 149

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ #112 C B B+ C B
Defense B- #90 C+ C+ B+ B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 188 61% 94 +1.1 139
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% 338 35% 286 -3.7 343
Three Pointers 50% 25 31% 286 +2.6 91
1st FG Attempt 1.02 174 +0.0 176
Second Chance 33.1% 100 1.14 51 0.38 57
Turnovers 14.1% 33
Freethrows 0.30 213 72% 177 0.22 196
Total Offense +2.4 112

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 317 58% 176 +3.3 73
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 151 38% 175 -0.2 204
Three Pointers 46% 48 33% 139 -1.9 282
1st FG Attempt 1.00 139 +1.2 139
Second Chance 30.2% 169 0.96 89 0.29 116
Turnovers 20.2% 31
Freethrows 0.28 99 72% 175 0.20 104
Total Defense +3.0 90

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +1.1 49 -0.5 91
Shot Type Accuracy -1.0 209 -0.7 159
Possession Length 14.9 14 17.9 286
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 163 0.16 154
Improvement -0.6 #222 +1.4 #106

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 10.9 10.6 11.5
.500 or above 9.3% 23.4% 4.6%
.500 or above in Conference 7.4% 20.0% 3.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 0.0% 2.6%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Tech (Away) - 24.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 11
Quad 24 - 55 - 16
Quad 32 - 27 - 18
Quad 47 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 351 Alcorn St. W 108 - 76 97% +17  91% 1 - 0 A- +16 A+ +16 B+ B- A+ C- -2 F D- A+
 Fri, Nov 7 316 Alabama St. W 101 - 64 94% +20  99% 2 - 0 A+ +24 A- +10 D+ A+ C- A +10 A D B+
 Tue, Nov 11 4 @Florida L 76 - 78 4% -1  34% 2 - 1 A+ +24 C+ +3 D+ B- A A+ +21 A- A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 217 Tennessee Martin W 87 - 73 85% +6  79% 3 - 1 B +8 B +6 B+ C- A+ C+ +1 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 265 Georgia Southern W 98 - 72 90% +14  99% 4 - 1 A- +17 C +1 C C A+ A +12 B A+ A
 Tue, Nov 25 322 Cal St. Bakersfield W 89 - 59 95% +13  85% 5 - 1 A- +17 D -4 D B F+ A+ +17 A- D+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 29 Texas A&M L 59 - 95 18% -22  0% 5 - 2 F -21 F -14 F B- C- D+ -4 D F+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 30 Georgia L 73 - 107 27% -19  5% 5 - 3 F -22 D -6 C- C- A+ F -13 F+ F B+
 Sat, Dec 6 5 Houston L 67 - 82 6% -10  0% 5 - 4 B- +7 C+ +3 C A+ F+ B +5 F+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 183 Massachusetts L 95 - 103 74% -5  18% 5 - 5 D -9 B- +5 B+ D- B F -13 F F D+
 Tue, Dec 16 98 @Dayton L 69 - 97 39% -13  1% 5 - 6 F -20 D- -7 D D+ D- F+ -10 C- B- D+
 Fri, Dec 19 365 Mississippi Valley W 96 - 49 99% +29  97% 6 - 6 A +20 B- +4 D C+ B+ A+ +13 B- B+ A+
 Mon, Dec 22 306 Jacksonville W 87 - 63 93% +18  97% 7 - 6 B+ +12 A +13 C A- B+ C+ +1 C+ A+ F
 Tue, Dec 30 26 @North Carolina L 66 - 79 12% -7  13% 7 - 7 0 - 1 B- +5 C- -2 D A B- B+ +7 A C+ C-
 Sat, Jan 3 3 Duke L 87 - 91 9% -0  49% 7 - 8 0 - 2 A- +16 A+ +23 A+ A+ B- D -6 C- B A
 Sat, Jan 10 27 North Carolina St. L 69 - 113 25% -24  0% 7 - 9 0 - 3 F -32 F+ -9 F A A F -19 F F C-
 Tue, Jan 13 69 @Syracuse L 86 - 94 29% -1  44% 7 - 10 0 - 4 C+ +3 A +12 B+ A+ C D- -9 F C+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 72 Wake Forest L 68 - 69 52% +3  70% 7 - 11 0 - 5 C+ +4 C- -1 D A D- B +5 B+ B F
 Tue, Jan 20 40 @Miami (FL) W 65 - 63 16% +0  46% 8 - 11 1 - 5 A +18 C- -2 B+ F C+ A+ +20 A+ B+ A-
 Sat, Jan 24 38 @SMU L 80 - 83 14% -4  12% 8 - 12 1 - 6 B+ +14 A +12 B- B+ A+ C+ +2 B A- F
 Wed, Jan 28 71 California W 63 - 61 51% +5  78% 9 - 12 2 - 6 B- +7 F+ -8 C F A+ A+ +15 A+ C+ B-
 Sat, Jan 31 76 Stanford W 88 - 80 53% +7  72% 10 - 12 3 - 6 B+ +13 A+ +16 A+ A+ A+ C- -3 D+ B+ C+
 Sat, Feb 7 82 @Notre Dame W 82 - 79 34% +8  95% 11 - 12 4 - 6 B+ +13 B+ +8 C+ C+ A+ B +4 A- A C+
 Tue, Feb 10 24 Virginia L 58 - 61 22% +2  68% 11 - 13 4 - 7 B +10 F+ -9 F D+ A+ A+ +20 A+ B- A
 Sat, Feb 14 58 @Virginia Tech L 75 - 82 25%
 Tue, Feb 17 126 Boston College W 75 - 69 72%
 Sat, Feb 21 31 @Clemson L 66 - 78 13%
 Tue, Feb 24 40 Miami (FL) L 78 - 83 33%
 Sat, Feb 28 123 @Georgia Tech L 80 - 81 49%
 Wed, Mar 4 99 @Pittsburgh L 73 - 76 39%
 Sat, Mar 7 38 SMU L 81 - 87 29%
Totals 14 - 17 7 - 11 +5 C+ +2 C B B+ B- +3 C+ C+ B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B- D+ D+ C- 38% 12% 50% B C B- B B B+ C- C C B- C C C+ C+ 33% 21% 46% B- C+ C B- C+ B+ B- C B-
1.12 61% 35% 31% -1 +1 1.02 33% 1.1 .38 14% .30 72% .22 1.04 58% 38% 33% -1 0 1.00 30% 1.0 .29 20% .28 72% .21
Nov
4		 Alcorn St. A+ B+ D- B+ B 54% 5% 40% A- B+ C- B+ B- A+ B- D- C C- C+ F F F 30% 39% 32% A+ F D F+ D- A+ F A+ F
1.42 71% 33% 39% +10 +3 1.28 37% 1.4 .50 11% .37 68% .25 1.00 54% 53% 50% +12 -3 1.20 29% 1.0 .29 28% .49 59% .29
Nov
7		 Alabama St. A- A- B- D- D+ 27% 8% 65% C D+ A A+ A+ C- F A+ F+ A A- A+ B- A+ 33% 27% 40% B- A C+ F D B+ D+ A+ C+
1.29 71% 40% 30% 0 +1 1.03 44% 1.9 .82 19% .22 93% .21 0.82 44% 13% 32% -12 -1 0.75 29% 1.1 .31 22% .31 58% .18
Nov
11		 Florida C+ D F+ F D- 39% 11% 50% A+ D+ D+ A+ B- A A A+ A+ A+ F A- A+ A 41% 6% 53% C- A- A- A+ A+ A+ F B- F
0.94 46% 29% 26% -12 +1 0.81 16% 1.1 .18 12% .35 84% .30 0.96 76% 33% 19% -5 +2 0.96 38% 0.5 .18 22% .51 69% .35
Nov
18		 Tennessee Martin B B- F B- B- 45% 9% 46% A+ B+ C D+ C- A+ C F D C+ B+ F F F 31% 18% 51% C F C- F F A+ F F F
1.15 64% 20% 35% +2 +2 1.09 33% 0.9 .29 8% .33 57% .19 0.97 50% 63% 39% +6 0 1.13 37% 1.2 .43 34% .42 76% .32
Nov
21		 Georgia Southern C B F C C- 28% 3% 68% C+ C F+ A+ C A+ B F C A B+ C B+ B- 30% 13% 57% B- B A- A+ A+ A C- F F
1.18 65% 0% 34% +1 +1 1.07 29% 1.3 .38 13% .40 66% .26 0.87 47% 43% 28% -8 0 0.88 21% 0.7 .14 20% .36 88% .32
Nov
25		 Cal St. Bakersfield D B- A+ F F+ 44% 2% 54% A D C+ B+ B F+ A A A+ A+ C A+ A+ A 49% 31% 20% D- A- D C- D+ A+ F A+ D-
1.10 63% 100% 24% -5 +3 0.98 38% 1.2 .46 21% .45 79% .36 0.73 55% 21% 11% -14 -1 0.73 36% 1.0 .36 35% .49 62% .30
Nov
28		 Texas A&M F F F F F 30% 14% 56% B- F B+ C B- C- C F F D+ B+ A+ F D 41% 7% 52% C- D F A- F+ A+ F D F
0.78 41% 13% 22% -19 0 0.65 34% 0.9 .31 21% .29 47% .13 1.26 52% 0% 52% +9 +2 1.23 52% 0.8 .43 21% .42 80% .34
Dec
2		 Georgia D D- C D+ D+ 46% 14% 40% B+ C- D B- C- A+ C+ F D F F F C- D- 45% 5% 50% F+ F+ F F F B+ C+ C- C+
0.93 46% 38% 30% -8 +1 0.89 28% 1.0 .28 14% .27 50% .13 1.37 73% 67% 34% +9 +2 1.24 52% 1.4 .72 18% .33 76% .25
Dec
6		 Houston C+ C F F D+ 41% 5% 55% A+ C A+ A A+ F+ B- B B B B- F F D- 38% 20% 42% F F+ B- A+ A+ A+ A C A
0.97 56% 0% 25% -10 +2 0.86 41% 1.1 .46 27% .36 72% .26 1.18 62% 55% 43% +11 0 1.24 36% 0.6 .21 19% .16 78% .12
Dec
13		 Massachusetts B- A+ F C- B 42% 7% 52% B+ B+ A F D- B D A+ C+ F C A- F F 49% 17% 34% F+ F C- F F D+ B- D C
1.17 76% 25% 32% +5 +2 1.17 38% 0.5 .20 15% .33 83% .27 1.26 59% 30% 50% +7 +1 1.19 33% 1.6 .53 17% .31 71% .22
Dec
16		 Dayton D- D- F B- D- 35% 19% 46% B- D B- F+ D+ D- A+ C A+ F+ F A+ B C- 40% 13% 48% C C- A- F+ B- D+ F F F
0.88 47% 22% 36% -5 0 0.92 33% 0.8 .26 26% .46 70% .33 1.24 74% 17% 30% +1 +1 1.06 21% 1.3 .28 15% .71 85% .61
Dec
19		 Mississippi Valley B- A D D- D 33% 11% 56% B- D B- D+ C+ B+ C- B C A+ F B A+ B- 24% 37% 39% C B- D+ A+ B+ A+ F A+ D-
1.29 74% 33% 31% +3 +1 1.09 41% 1.1 .46 13% .37 79% .29 0.66 70% 33% 19% -8 -3 0.80 26% 0.6 .15 34% .45 55% .24
Dec
22		 Jacksonville A A+ D+ D+ C 29% 12% 59% C C A+ D A- B+ A A- A+ C+ F F A+ D+ 15% 32% 53% A+ C+ B A+ A+ F B C- B-
1.34 80% 33% 33% +5 0 1.14 46% 0.9 .40 12% .46 77% .35 0.97 88% 59% 18% -2 -3 0.92 24% 0.6 .14 11% .24 71% .17
Dec
30		 North Carolina C- F A- F F+ 26% 13% 61% A- D B- A+ A B- B- F C- B+ D+ B- A+ A 37% 15% 48% C- A D- A C+ C- B- C- C+
0.95 36% 43% 27% -11 0 0.80 28% 1.3 .35 13% .23 57% .13 1.14 65% 38% 27% -3 +1 0.98 39% 0.9 .37 11% .32 70% .23
Jan
3		 Duke A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 32% 16% 52% B A+ A- A+ A+ B- A- C- B+ D B- F F D+ 37% 7% 57% B- C- C B+ B A F F F
1.25 56% 50% 46% +11 0 1.24 30% 1.8 .53 19% .28 69% .19 1.30 59% 67% 42% +9 +2 1.24 40% 1.1 .44 22% .46 92% .42
Jan
10		 North Carolina St. F+ C F F F 47% 8% 45% A- F F A+ A A A+ C+ A+ F F C+ F F 22% 29% 49% A+ F F F F C- C- C- D+
0.89 54% 0% 22% -13 +2 0.80 15% 2.5 .38 17% .45 69% .31 1.46 77% 35% 55% +19 -2 1.36 37% 1.8 .67 12% .34 78% .26
Jan
13		 Syracuse A C+ F B B+ 45% 12% 43% B+ B+ A A+ A+ C A+ C A+ D- F F F F 39% 13% 48% D+ F F+ A C+ B+ A B+ A
1.18 57% 17% 36% -2 +2 1.02 39% 1.4 .55 19% .46 74% .34 1.29 81% 71% 42% +19 +1 1.43 38% 0.8 .31 19% .25 60% .15
Jan
17		 Wake Forest C- B+ B+ F D+ 21% 21% 58% F+ D A+ C- A D- B+ A+ A+ B B F A B 23% 23% 54% A B+ A D- B F A+ B- A+
1.03 67% 44% 24% -5 -1 0.88 46% 1.0 .46 24% .38 89% .34 1.05 54% 62% 27% -1 -1 0.96 24% 1.3 .32 8% .20 75% .15
Jan
20		 Miami (FL) C- C A B B+ 41% 27% 33% C+ B+ F F F C+ C+ A- B- A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 49% 24% 27% B+ A+ A+ F B+ A- A D- B+
0.94 55% 46% 38% +3 -1 1.06 13% 0.5 .07 19% .27 73% .20 0.91 58% 17% 23% -9 0 0.84 26% 1.2 .31 20% .27 73% .20
Jan
24		 SMU A A F C B- 30% 21% 48% C+ B- A+ C- B+ A+ C- D+ D+ C+ C F C+ B+ 34% 17% 49% D B B- A A- F F B- F+
1.18 71% 25% 33% +1 -1 1.02 42% 0.9 .37 12% .25 67% .17 1.22 61% 56% 35% +5 0 1.11 34% 0.8 .29 10% .38 74% .28
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 California F+ A C F C+ 27% 29% 44% F C C- F F A+ B+ F C- A+ A- A+ B+ A+ 19% 31% 50% A+ A+ A- F C+ B- A B+ A
0.93 67% 38% 25% -4 -2 0.91 27% 0.3 .07 10% .34 52% .18 0.90 50% 25% 31% -8 -3 0.81 21% 1.3 .26 16% .26 73% .19
Jan
31		 Stanford A+ A A+ C- A+ 48% 11% 41% A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ C- D- F+ D- F+ 25% 24% 51% A+ D+ C A B+ C+ A+ A- A+
1.27 68% 80% 32% +8 +2 1.22 24% 2.0 .48 13% .48 79% .38 1.16 64% 46% 39% +8 -1 1.15 36% 0.8 .28 16% .16 67% .10
Feb
7		 Notre Dame B+ F+ F A C 29% 12% 59% B C+ D+ A C+ A+ B B B+ B C D- A+ A 33% 20% 47% C- A- C A+ A C+ F A- D
1.13 47% 0% 40% -2 0 0.98 21% 1.2 .26 7% .33 77% .25 1.09 61% 45% 27% -2 0 0.96 33% 0.6 .21 17% .40 63% .25
Feb
10		 Virginia F+ D F F F 33% 17% 50% B+ F D+ D+ D+ A+ A- C+ A- A+ A+ C- A A+ 24% 18% 58% A A+ A+ F B- A A+ A A+
0.85 47% 22% 19% -17 0 0.67 24% 0.8 .20 12% .37 73% .27 0.90 42% 44% 28% -8 -1 0.84 32% 1.3 .42 21% .15 63% .09



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.7 7th
8th 0.2 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.5 4.2 3.2 0.2 8.1 9th
10th 0.2 5.0 8.0 1.2 14.3 10th
11th 0.0 3.1 12.6 3.3 0.1 19.0 11th
12th 0.5 10.9 8.6 0.4 20.3 12th
13th 0.0 3.7 11.1 1.5 0.0 16.3 13th
14th 0.2 7.2 2.9 0.1 10.4 14th
15th 0.9 4.1 0.1 5.2 15th
16th 1.9 0.5 2.4 16th
17th 0.9 0.0 0.9 17th
18th 0.2 0.2 18th
Total 4.0 16.1 28.4 28.1 16.1 6.0 1.3 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 11.0 0.0 1.2 0.8%
9-9 6.0% 0.3% 0.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.3%
8-10 16.1% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 16.1
7-11 28.1% 28.1
6-12 28.4% 28.4
5-13 16.1% 16.1
4-14 4.0% 4.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 10.9 99.9 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.0%