Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.2#133
Expected Predictive Rating-0.7#187
Pace71.3#97
Improvement+2.0#10

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#114
First Shot+2.0#104
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#173
Layup/Dunks-0.1#175
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#109
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#226
Freethrows+1.7#59
Improvement+1.2#30

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#167
First Shot+1.2#136
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#279
Layups/Dunks-0.2#192
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#15
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#243
Freethrows+0.2#170
Improvement+0.8#60
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 0.9% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 12.7% 33.7% 9.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 0.8% 0.7%
First Round0.6% 0.7% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina St. (Away) - 13.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 9
Quad 21 - 62 - 15
Quad 32 - 44 - 20
Quad 46 - 210 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 199   Stetson L 74-83 73%     0 - 1 -13.2 +0.7 -14.6
  Nov 11, 2022 65   @ Central Florida L 54-68 20%     0 - 2 -3.0 -9.1 +5.3
  Nov 14, 2022 149   Troy L 72-79 65%     0 - 3 -8.8 -3.7 -4.7
  Nov 18, 2022 44   Florida L 67-76 29%     0 - 4 -1.1 -2.4 +1.9
  Nov 21, 2022 227   Mercer W 81-72 78%     1 - 4 +3.2 +7.2 -3.8
  Nov 24, 2022 153   Siena L 63-80 55%     1 - 5 -16.2 -12.6 -2.6
  Nov 25, 2022 89   Stanford L 60-70 37%     1 - 6 -4.4 -10.2 +5.7
  Nov 27, 2022 91   Nebraska L 58-75 38%     1 - 7 -11.6 -10.6 -0.8
  Nov 30, 2022 5   Purdue L 69-79 12%     1 - 8 +5.1 +0.9 +4.4
  Dec 03, 2022 17   @ Virginia L 57-62 9%     1 - 9 0 - 1 +11.9 -2.4 +13.8
  Dec 10, 2022 261   Louisville W 75-53 83%     2 - 9 1 - 1 +14.1 +0.6 +13.9
  Dec 13, 2022 298   South Carolina Upstate W 80-63 88%     3 - 9 +6.7 +2.9 +3.5
  Dec 17, 2022 68   St. John's L 79-93 28%     3 - 10 -5.9 +8.4 -13.8
  Dec 21, 2022 128   Notre Dame W 73-72 60%     4 - 10 2 - 1 +0.7 +6.4 -5.6
  Dec 31, 2022 22   @ Duke L 67-86 10%     4 - 11 2 - 2 -2.8 +4.6 -8.1
  Jan 07, 2023 158   Georgia Tech W 75-64 66%     5 - 11 3 - 2 +8.9 +6.8 +2.7
  Jan 11, 2023 70   @ Wake Forest L 75-90 21%     5 - 12 3 - 3 -4.3 +3.0 -7.0
  Jan 14, 2023 17   Virginia L 58-67 19%     5 - 13 3 - 4 +2.5 +1.1 -0.1
  Jan 17, 2023 128   @ Notre Dame W 84-71 39%     6 - 13 4 - 4 +18.0 +9.1 +8.8
  Jan 21, 2023 67   @ Pittsburgh W 71-64 21%     7 - 13 5 - 4 +17.8 +8.5 +9.8
  Jan 24, 2023 35   Miami (FL) L 63-86 25%     7 - 14 5 - 5 -13.9 -9.2 -4.3
  Jan 28, 2023 55   Clemson L 81-82 33%     7 - 15 5 - 6 +5.8 +4.9 +1.0
  Feb 01, 2023 39   @ North Carolina St. L 70-82 13%    
  Feb 04, 2023 261   @ Louisville W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 08, 2023 76   Syracuse L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 11, 2023 67   Pittsburgh L 71-74 39%    
  Feb 15, 2023 55   @ Clemson L 68-78 17%    
  Feb 18, 2023 148   Boston College W 71-67 66%    
  Feb 25, 2023 35   @ Miami (FL) L 70-82 12%    
  Feb 27, 2023 25   North Carolina L 72-80 22%    
  Mar 04, 2023 46   @ Virginia Tech L 66-77 15%    
Projected Record 10 - 21 8 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.1 1.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.0 1.0 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 5.4 4.1 0.2 10.9 9th
10th 0.1 2.0 8.7 9.7 1.5 0.0 22.0 10th
11th 0.1 4.2 17.4 16.7 4.3 0.1 42.8 11th
12th 1.5 7.0 5.6 1.0 0.0 15.1 12th
13th 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 15th
Total 2.4 12.0 25.1 27.6 20.2 9.2 2.8 0.6 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.6% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.0 0.6
11-9 2.8% 1.1% 1.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.8
10-10 9.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 9.2
9-11 20.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 19.9
8-12 27.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 27.4
7-13 25.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 25.0
6-14 12.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.9
5-15 2.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.4
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.4% 0.7% 16.0 0.7