Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
110 Kent St. 30.7%   13   6 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 8 13 - 5 +3.6      -1.0 202 +4.5 63 61.8 341 +9.3 73 0.0 1
131 Akron 20.2%   4 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 10 12 - 6 +1.5      +2.9 97 -1.4 213 71.6 108 +2.0 139 0.0 1
157 Ohio 14.5%   3 - 5 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 7 +0.3      +2.5 106 -2.3 248 71.3 118 -3.2 223 0.0 1
196 Central Michigan 10.2%   2 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 13 11 - 7 -1.5      -2.9 246 +1.3 128 69.8 161 +1.9 141 0.0 1
198 Miami (OH) 8.6%   5 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 11 11 - 7 -1.7      -1.9 221 +0.2 160 68.5 193 +3.3 121 0.0 1
203 Toledo 7.9%   5 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 -1.9      +2.0 122 -3.9 300 72.5 84 +2.3 132 0.0 1
267 Bowling Green 2.1%   2 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 10 -6.0      -2.9 251 -3.0 274 70.1 154 -8.2 295 0.0 1
270 Ball St. 2.2%   1 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 17 8 - 10 -6.0      -4.3 289 -1.7 225 66.5 249 -11.6 333 0.0 1
271 Western Michigan 1.9%   2 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 10 -6.0      -2.1 227 -3.9 299 68.2 206 -9.5 318 0.0 1
299 Eastern Michigan 1.0%   4 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -7.3      -3.9 281 -3.4 287 64.8 297 -3.2 220 0.0 1
331 Buffalo 0.4%   3 - 4 0 - 0 8 - 20 5 - 13 -9.8      -4.1 283 -5.6 336 71.6 107 -4.4 236 0.0 1
338 Northern Illinois 0.3%   1 - 6 0 - 0 6 - 21 5 - 13 -10.7      -6.9 347 -3.8 298 71.1 124 -12.2 338 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Kent St. 2.4 43.6 21.6 13.1 8.5 5.6 3.5 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Akron 3.3 27.0 20.7 15.5 11.5 8.7 6.4 4.2 2.7 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.2
Ohio 4.2 15.8 16.0 14.8 13.3 11.8 9.4 7.0 5.2 3.3 2.1 0.9 0.3
Central Michigan 4.5 13.1 15.4 14.3 13.2 11.3 9.4 7.8 6.0 4.2 2.8 1.6 0.8
Miami (OH) 4.6 10.6 13.7 14.8 14.4 12.9 10.5 8.2 5.9 4.1 2.9 1.3 0.6
Toledo 5.1 8.3 11.2 12.6 12.9 12.5 11.9 10.0 7.9 5.6 3.9 2.3 0.9
Bowling Green 7.1 2.1 4.2 6.3 7.9 9.6 11.6 12.5 12.0 11.5 10.0 7.6 4.7
Ball St. 7.2 2.0 3.8 5.6 7.6 9.1 10.8 12.3 12.8 12.3 10.7 7.9 5.1
Western Michigan 7.4 1.8 3.3 5.2 6.7 8.7 10.7 12.7 13.1 12.5 11.0 8.9 5.5
Eastern Michigan 8.4 0.7 1.6 2.8 4.1 5.7 7.8 9.9 12.8 14.5 16.1 14.3 9.7
Buffalo 9.6 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.0 4.3 6.1 8.9 11.9 16.0 21.4 24.3
Northern Illinois 9.8 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.7 6.0 8.5 11.7 16.5 21.7 26.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Kent St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.6 6.1 9.6 12.9 15.4 16.2 14.4 10.8 5.6 1.8
Akron 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.5 4.5 6.9 9.7 12.6 14.2 14.8 13.2 10.1 5.8 2.7 0.7
Ohio 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.8 4.9 7.5 10.6 13.0 14.2 13.7 12.1 9.2 5.4 3.0 1.0 0.2
Central Michigan 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.8 5.9 8.6 10.5 12.8 13.6 13.0 11.0 8.4 5.1 2.6 0.9 0.1
Miami (OH) 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 3.6 6.2 8.9 11.9 13.8 14.9 13.2 10.9 7.1 4.0 1.8 0.5 0.1
Toledo 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.1 5.2 7.8 10.6 13.2 14.5 13.2 11.5 8.6 5.6 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.1
Bowling Green 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.0 5.5 8.5 11.2 13.1 13.9 12.9 10.8 8.2 5.6 3.2 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Ball St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.3 6.2 9.2 11.8 13.7 13.9 12.4 10.3 7.5 4.8 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Western Michigan 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.7 6.7 9.5 12.2 13.9 14.4 12.4 9.6 6.8 4.4 2.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 7 - 11 0.2 1.2 3.4 6.9 10.7 13.8 14.3 14.4 12.2 9.0 6.3 3.8 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 5 - 13 1.4 4.7 9.2 12.6 14.8 15.0 13.3 10.5 7.7 4.8 2.9 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 5 - 13 1.5 5.0 9.7 13.7 15.8 15.3 13.3 10.2 7.0 4.2 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Kent St. 43.6% 31.2 9.6 2.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Akron 27.0% 17.8 7.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ohio 15.8% 9.6 4.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Central Michigan 13.1% 7.4 4.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miami (OH) 10.6% 5.8 3.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Toledo 8.3% 4.5 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Bowling Green 2.1% 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ball St. 2.0% 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Western Michigan 1.8% 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 0.7% 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Kent St. 30.7% 30.6% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 9.8 11.9 6.1 1.5 0.1 69.3 0.0%
Akron 20.2% 20.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.6 6.3 5.9 3.3 0.6 79.8 0.0%
Ohio 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.3 4.7 3.9 1.6 85.5 0.0%
Central Michigan 10.2% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.9 2.7 2.3 0.8 89.8 0.0%
Miami (OH) 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.2 2.8 2.3 0.5 91.4 0.0%
Toledo 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.6 2.6 0.7 92.1 0.0%
Bowling Green 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 97.9 0.0%
Ball St. 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.3 97.8 0.0%
Western Michigan 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 98.1 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 99.0 0.0%
Buffalo 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.6 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Kent St. 30.7% 0.0% 30.7% 4.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Akron 20.2% 0.1% 20.2% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 14.5% 0.6% 14.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 10.2% 0.4% 10.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 8.6% 0.1% 8.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Toledo 7.9% 0.2% 7.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 2.1% 0.7% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 2.2% 0.9% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 1.9% 0.9% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Buffalo 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 97.9% 1.0 2.1 97.9 0.0
2nd Round 9.7% 0.1 90.3 9.7
Sweet Sixteen 1.9% 0.0 98.1 1.9
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0