Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
76 Akron 39.8%   12   20 - 5 13 - 1 +7.5      +6.5 53 +1.0 140 75.6 27 +6.9 85 +12.4 2
85 Miami (OH) 42.0%   24 - 0 14 - 0 +6.9      +6.3 55 +0.6 153 73.4 59 +18.3 20 +16.3 1
145 Kent St. 7.4%   18 - 7 11 - 3 +0.9      +1.2 138 -0.3 181 75.2 31 +4.1 103 +6.5 3
166 Bowling Green 4.3%   13 - 12 7 - 8 -0.4      -2.2 234 +1.9 120 70.2 132 -1.6 187 -2.2 6
169 Toledo 4.5%   11 - 13 7 - 6 -0.6      +2.2 112 -2.8 256 70.0 136 -2.0 192 -1.1 5
182 Massachusetts 2.9%   14 - 12 6 - 8 -1.3      +0.2 156 -1.5 222 74.7 36 -2.0 195 -4.1 7
208 Ohio 2.0%   12 - 13 8 - 6 -2.8      -0.8 186 -2.0 235 72.0 86 -2.0 194 -0.9 4
213 Buffalo 1.2%   13 - 11 5 - 8 -2.9      +1.3 137 -4.2 300 66.7 236 -2.6 209 -5.9 8
244 Eastern Michigan 0.1%   9 - 17 4 - 10 -4.4      -4.7 294 +0.3 163 66.2 244 -6.1 263 -8.8 11
274 Central Michigan 0.2%   6 - 18 4 - 9 -6.5      -2.7 247 -3.8 285 67.4 218 -9.6 315 -8.7 10
284 Western Michigan 0.0%   8 - 16 3 - 10 -7.1      -0.9 190 -6.2 335 68.8 175 -6.6 271 -9.2 13
313 Ball St. 0.0%   6 - 19 3 - 11 -9.3      -7.2 339 -2.0 236 61.7 345 -10.1 324 -9.1 12
319 Northern Illinois 0.0%   7 - 16 4 - 9 -10.1      -7.9 347 -2.2 240 69.8 139 -7.0 279 -7.8 9


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Feb 17 182 Massachusetts 77 85 Miami (OH) 86   
Tue, Feb 17 166 Bowling Green 71 145 Kent St. 78   
Tue, Feb 17 213 Buffalo 70 319 Northern Illinois 72   
Tue, Feb 17 313 Ball St. 57 208 Ohio 69   
Tue, Feb 17 274 Central Michigan 54 244 Eastern Michigan 66   
Tue, Feb 17 76 Akron 90 284 Western Michigan 73   
Fri, Feb 20 76 Akron 78 313 Ball St. 65   
Fri, Feb 20 166 Bowling Green 77 85 Miami (OH) 91   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Feb 21 213 Buffalo 78 182 Massachusetts 82 67%   
Sat, Feb 21 244 Eastern Michigan 70 169 Toledo 77 74%   
Sat, Feb 21 274 Central Michigan 78 284 Western Michigan 75 64%   
Sat, Feb 21 319 Northern Illinois 72 208 Ohio 77 66%   
Tue, Feb 24 76 Akron 89 213 Buffalo 75 89%   
Tue, Feb 24 244 Eastern Michigan 71 85 Miami (OH) 80 79%   
Tue, Feb 24 274 Central Michigan 73 145 Kent St. 83 84%   
Tue, Feb 24 166 Bowling Green 81 284 Western Michigan 71 82%   
Tue, Feb 24 313 Ball St. 69 182 Massachusetts 74 69%   
Tue, Feb 24 319 Northern Illinois 69 169 Toledo 81 88%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Akron 1.6 35.9 63.6 0.5
Miami (OH) 1.1 89.6 10.3 0.1
Kent St. 2.9 0.2 6.4 93.4 0.0
Bowling Green 5.5 17.5 36.3 28.4 15.9 1.9 0.0
Toledo 4.6 0.4 61.5 24.3 10.4 2.8 0.5 0.0
Massachusetts 6.2 9.6 20.7 22.9 32.8 12.4 1.4 0.2 0.0
Ohio 4.7 0.3 54.7 26.0 14.7 4.2 0.1
Buffalo 7.7 1.4 4.5 8.8 23.2 44.4 11.8 4.0 1.7 0.2
Eastern Michigan 9.9 0.0 0.4 2.3 13.2 23.7 24.6 20.8 12.7 2.2
Central Michigan 9.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 4.4 19.8 32.7 20.1 11.2 7.5 3.4
Western Michigan 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.9 14.5 16.5 17.9 24.2 22.5
Ball St. 11.0 0.6 4.7 15.8 17.0 16.5 20.2 25.1
Northern Illinois 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 9.6 27.9 26.5 17.3 12.9 3.8

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Akron 16 - 2 23 - 6 0.0 0.9 10.1 40.3 48.6
Miami (OH) 17 - 1 27 - 1 0.3 2.9 15.6 39.0 42.2
Kent St. 14 - 4 21 - 8 0.5 5.4 25.8 47.1 21.2
Bowling Green 9 - 9 15 - 13 3.5 22.3 45.2 29.0
Toledo 10 - 8 14 - 15 0.6 6.4 24.2 39.3 25.5 4.1
Massachusetts 8 - 10 16 - 14 3.0 16.0 35.1 34.1 11.9
Ohio 10 - 8 14 - 15 9.0 30.0 37.5 19.8 3.7
Buffalo 7 - 11 15 - 14 4.7 22.3 37.5 26.8 8.0 0.7
Eastern Michigan 5 - 13 10 - 20 22.0 39.1 28.4 9.4 1.1
Central Michigan 6 - 12 8 - 21 11.1 33.4 35.0 16.5 3.7 0.3
Western Michigan 5 - 13 10 - 19 13.1 38.3 33.1 12.9 2.4 0.2
Ball St. 5 - 13 8 - 21 14.5 34.4 33.4 15.0 2.7
Northern Illinois 5 - 13 8 - 20 19.6 42.5 28.2 8.6 1.1 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Akron 35.9% 10.4 25.3 0.1
Miami (OH) 89.6% 64.1 25.3 0.1
Kent St. 0.2% 0.0 0.1
Bowling Green
Toledo
Massachusetts
Ohio
Buffalo
Eastern Michigan
Central Michigan
Western Michigan
Ball St.
Northern Illinois


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Akron 39.8% 39.7% 0.0% 12   0.0 7.7 26.9 5.1 0.1 60.3 0.1%
Miami (OH) 42.0% 37.7% 4.3% 0.0 0.1 0.5 21.3 19.6 0.6 0.0 58.0 6.9%
Kent St. 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0 1.5 3.8 1.9 0.2 92.6 0.0%
Bowling Green 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.1 1.3 1.7 1.1 0.1 95.7 0.0%
Toledo 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.0 0.7 95.5 0.0%
Massachusetts 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.2 97.1 0.0%
Ohio 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.6 98.0 0.0%
Buffalo 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.1 98.8 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Central Michigan 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Ball St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 95.7 4.3
1st Round 99.6% 1.0 0.4 98.1 1.5
2nd Round 13.1% 0.1 86.9 13.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.9% 0.0 98.1 1.9
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Akron 39.8% 0.0% 39.7% 6.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 42.0% 4.3% 39.2% 6.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kent St. 7.4% 0.0% 7.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 4.3% 0.0% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Toledo 4.5% 0.2% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 2.9% 0.0% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 2.0% 0.2% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Buffalo 1.2% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%