Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
76 Akron 39.9%   12   18 - 5 11 - 1 +7.5      +6.4 53 +1.1 136 75.9 27 +6.8 83 +12.0 2
86 Miami (OH) 36.5%   22 - 0 12 - 0 +6.5      +5.9 58 +0.6 149 73.5 59 +17.8 21 +15.4 1
147 Kent St. 7.2%   16 - 7 9 - 3 +0.7      +1.5 128 -0.8 195 74.6 41 +3.5 106 +5.4 3
158 Bowling Green 4.5%   12 - 10 6 - 6 -0.2      -2.4 233 +2.2 111 70.4 131 -1.3 188 -1.9 6
165 Toledo 5.0%   11 - 12 7 - 5 -0.4      +2.2 112 -2.6 254 70.2 136 -1.7 197 -0.5 4
178 Massachusetts 3.5%   14 - 11 6 - 7 -1.2      +0.2 157 -1.4 219 74.7 36 -1.8 199 -3.6 7
200 Buffalo 1.8%   13 - 10 5 - 7 -2.5      +1.4 129 -3.9 296 67.0 230 -1.5 193 -4.0 8
208 Ohio 2.2%   11 - 13 7 - 6 -2.7      -0.7 176 -2.1 241 72.6 71 -2.0 201 -1.1 5
229 Eastern Michigan 0.3%   8 - 16 3 - 9 -3.8      -3.8 273 0.0 168 66.4 244 -5.5 257 -8.5 10
295 Western Michigan 0.0%   7 - 15 2 - 9 -7.7      -1.3 200 -6.4 338 69.0 175 -7.2 277 -11.4 13
297 Central Michigan 0.1%   5 - 17 3 - 8 -7.7      -2.6 240 -5.2 318 67.4 219 -9.7 316 -8.8 11
312 Ball St. 0.0%   6 - 16 3 - 8 -9.0      -6.5 333 -2.5 250 61.9 343 -9.4 313 -7.7 9
313 Northern Illinois 0.0%   6 - 15 3 - 8 -9.1      -7.2 341 -1.9 234 70.1 137 -7.7 292 -9.2 12


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Feb 11 229 Eastern Michigan 91 147 Kent St. 95   
Wed, Feb 11 312 Ball St. 53 200 Buffalo 63   
Wed, Feb 11 165 Toledo 90 295 Western Michigan 79   
Wed, Feb 11 158 Bowling Green 68 313 Northern Illinois 52   
Fri, Feb 13 76 Akron 99 178 Massachusetts 92   
Fri, Feb 13 86 Miami (OH) 90 208 Ohio 74   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Feb 14 158 Bowling Green 78 165 Toledo 74 62%   
Sat, Feb 14 229 Eastern Michigan 77 295 Western Michigan 70 75%   
Sat, Feb 14 297 Central Michigan 75 313 Northern Illinois 71 66%   
Sat, Feb 14 312 Ball St. 69 147 Kent St. 76 74%   
Tue, Feb 17 158 Bowling Green 78 147 Kent St. 76 58%   
Tue, Feb 17 178 Massachusetts 81 86 Miami (OH) 86 68%   
Tue, Feb 17 297 Central Michigan 68 229 Eastern Michigan 75 75%   
Tue, Feb 17 312 Ball St. 66 208 Ohio 75 81%   
Tue, Feb 17 200 Buffalo 79 313 Northern Illinois 69 82%   
Tue, Feb 17 76 Akron 89 295 Western Michigan 77 87%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Akron 1.5 48.5 50.6 0.9
Miami (OH) 1.2 77.9 21.7 0.4
Kent St. 3.0 0.6 5.8 90.3 2.9 0.4 0.1
Bowling Green 5.4 3.3 27.6 27.3 21.2 13.6 6.0 0.9 0.1
Toledo 4.5 0.0 8.0 55.2 19.9 10.6 4.7 1.5 0.1 0.0
Massachusetts 6.2 0.5 12.3 21.7 23.1 22.7 16.7 2.6 0.4 0.0
Buffalo 7.0 0.1 4.9 10.9 18.0 25.7 29.7 8.0 2.2 0.6 0.1
Ohio 5.2 2.4 31.9 29.4 21.7 11.2 3.2 0.3 0.0
Eastern Michigan 9.5 0.1 0.5 1.6 4.7 12.7 32.0 24.8 14.4 7.0 2.2
Western Michigan 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 6.8 11.1 15.8 24.8 40.1
Central Michigan 10.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.0 9.1 26.5 22.9 18.5 12.5 6.4
Ball St. 10.3 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.1 6.6 21.1 22.6 20.9 17.1 8.5
Northern Illinois 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 5.1 17.1 22.1 23.3 21.7 8.8

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Akron 16 - 2 23 - 6 0.0 0.4 3.8 16.7 40.0 39.1
Miami (OH) 17 - 1 27 - 1 0.0 0.5 2.8 11.0 26.1 36.3 23.3
Kent St. 13 - 5 20 - 9 0.1 1.4 7.9 22.2 34.8 26.2 7.4
Bowling Green 9 - 9 15 - 13 0.6 5.1 17.4 29.8 29.8 14.7 2.6
Toledo 10 - 8 14 - 15 0.5 5.1 17.9 32.2 29.6 12.7 1.9
Massachusetts 9 - 9 17 - 13 2.2 12.1 28.3 33.9 19.0 4.5
Buffalo 8 - 10 16 - 13 0.7 6.9 23.9 35.1 24.8 7.8 0.8
Ohio 10 - 8 14 - 15 2.3 14.0 31.6 33.1 15.9 3.1
Eastern Michigan 6 - 12 11 - 19 1.7 11.4 27.6 31.7 20.1 6.6 0.9
Western Michigan 4 - 14 9 - 20 9.8 29.6 32.6 18.9 7.1 1.6 0.2 0.0
Central Michigan 5 - 13 7 - 22 4.3 18.1 30.6 28.0 14.0 4.2 0.7 0.1
Ball St. 5 - 13 8 - 21 8.1 23.7 30.4 23.1 11.2 3.0 0.5 0.0
Northern Illinois 5 - 13 8 - 20 9.9 27.5 32.4 20.3 8.0 1.8 0.2 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Akron 48.5% 22.0 26.2 0.3
Miami (OH) 77.9% 51.4 26.2 0.3
Kent St. 0.6% 0.0 0.2 0.3
Bowling Green
Toledo
Massachusetts
Buffalo
Ohio
Eastern Michigan
Western Michigan
Central Michigan
Ball St.
Northern Illinois


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Akron 39.9% 39.9% 0.0% 12   0.0 9.0 25.5 5.2 0.2 60.1 0.0%
Miami (OH) 36.5% 35.6% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.3 16.6 18.8 0.8 0.0 63.5 1.4%
Kent St. 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 3.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 92.9 0.0%
Bowling Green 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.9 1.0 0.1 95.5 0.0%
Toledo 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.0 0.5 95.0 0.0%
Massachusetts 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.3 0.3 96.5 0.0%
Buffalo 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.1 98.2 0.0%
Ohio 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.7 97.8 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.7 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Central Michigan 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Ball St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.1 0.9
1st Round 99.7% 1.0 0.3 99.3 0.4
2nd Round 13.0% 0.1 87.0 13.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.9% 0.0 98.1 1.9
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Akron 39.9% 0.0% 39.9% 6.7% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 36.5% 0.9% 36.0% 5.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kent St. 7.2% 0.0% 7.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 4.5% 0.0% 4.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Toledo 5.0% 0.2% 4.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 3.5% 0.1% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Buffalo 1.8% 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 2.2% 0.3% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%