Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
66 Akron 43.9%   12   7 - 3 0 - 0 22 - 6 15 - 3 +8.5      +9.6 17 -1.1 209 76.8 30 +5.2 98 0.0 1
103 Miami (OH) 18.4%   9 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 5 12 - 5 +4.6      +3.8 85 +0.7 137 73.2 79 +10.9 56 0.0 1
125 Bowling Green 11.1%   6 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 10 11 - 7 +2.5      -0.4 175 +2.9 81 71.0 142 +1.7 142 0.0 1
132 Kent St. 9.3%   7 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 10 11 - 7 +1.7      +3.1 101 -1.4 218 79.5 13 +2.9 127 0.0 1
154 Massachusetts 5.9%   8 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 11 10 - 8 +0.4      -0.9 187 +1.3 119 78.4 19 +1.1 152 0.0 1
167 Toledo 3.9%   4 - 6 0 - 0 13 - 14 9 - 8 -0.8      +2.8 108 -3.5 291 71.6 127 -1.9 197 0.0 1
177 Ohio 3.8%   4 - 6 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 8 -1.2      +0.9 141 -2.1 244 74.4 59 -1.3 188 0.0 1
209 Buffalo 1.6%   8 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 12 8 - 10 -3.2      +1.0 139 -4.2 317 67.5 235 +4.0 114 0.0 1
224 Eastern Michigan 1.4%   5 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 10 -3.8      -2.9 243 -0.9 199 66.3 269 -0.3 171 0.0 1
249 Western Michigan 0.7%   5 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 16 7 - 11 -5.1      -1.8 221 -3.4 286 69.7 180 -2.3 207 0.0 1
307 Ball St. 0.2%   2 - 8 0 - 0 7 - 21 5 - 13 -8.3      -5.7 326 -2.6 255 63.6 324 -13.3 338 0.0 1
323 Northern Illinois 0.0%   2 - 7 0 - 0 7 - 20 5 - 13 -9.8      -4.1 279 -5.7 342 71.3 136 -8.2 292 0.0 1
326 Central Michigan 0.1%   2 - 7 0 - 0 7 - 21 5 - 13 -9.8      -4.4 290 -5.4 338 67.4 241 -10.6 319 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sun, Dec 14 132 Kent St. 78 246 Portland 88   
Sun, Dec 14 307 Ball St. 64 229 Campbell 69   
Sun, Dec 14 209 Buffalo 70 255 East Carolina 73   
Sun, Dec 14 22 Iowa 91 249 Western Michigan 51   
Tue, Dec 16 103 Miami (OH) 83 153 Wright St. 76   
Tue, Dec 16 11 Michigan St. 92 167 Toledo 69   
Tue, Dec 16 125 Bowling Green 76 341 Chicago St. 55   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Dec 19 66 Akron 88 224 Eastern Michigan 72 92%   
Sat, Dec 20 132 Kent St. 84 154 Massachusetts 86 57%   
Sat, Dec 20 125 Bowling Green 78 177 Ohio 77 53%   
Sat, Dec 20 209 Buffalo 76 249 Western Michigan 77 54%   
Sat, Dec 20 326 Central Michigan 73 323 Northern Illinois 77 62%   
Sat, Dec 20 307 Ball St. 67 103 Miami (OH) 77 82%   
Mon, Dec 22 224 Eastern Michigan 66 153 Wright St. 74 76%   
Mon, Dec 22 326 Central Michigan 64 43 Wisconsin 89 98%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Akron 1.5 71.0 17.1 6.6 2.8 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miami (OH) 3.6 14.7 23.6 19.3 14.2 10.3 7.1 4.7 2.9 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Bowling Green 4.1 12.3 19.4 17.0 14.2 11.4 8.6 6.5 4.4 3.1 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1
Kent St. 4.2 11.2 16.9 17.2 15.5 11.9 9.3 7.2 4.6 3.0 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1
Massachusetts 5.0 5.1 13.1 14.6 15.0 13.1 11.6 9.1 7.0 5.1 3.3 1.8 0.9 0.3
Toledo 6.0 2.3 6.8 9.8 12.2 13.2 13.7 12.4 10.4 7.8 5.4 3.3 1.9 0.6
Ohio 5.8 3.4 8.9 11.0 12.7 12.6 12.0 11.7 9.6 7.2 5.3 3.2 1.7 0.8
Buffalo 7.4 1.0 3.2 4.9 7.4 9.3 11.7 12.8 13.2 12.4 9.9 7.3 4.8 2.2
Eastern Michigan 7.9 0.7 2.2 4.0 5.8 7.6 9.9 12.4 12.5 12.8 12.0 9.8 6.9 3.4
Western Michigan 8.8 0.3 1.1 2.2 3.6 5.4 7.7 9.9 11.8 13.6 14.7 13.0 10.6 6.1
Ball St. 10.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.4 3.7 5.7 8.4 11.4 14.7 17.5 18.3 15.6
Northern Illinois 10.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 3.1 4.4 6.4 9.4 12.6 16.2 21.2 23.5
Central Michigan 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.4 4.2 6.6 9.1 12.6 16.4 20.9 25.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Akron 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.8 5.8 10.5 16.3 20.8 21.3 15.1 5.7
Miami (OH) 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 4.1 7.8 11.1 14.6 16.7 16.2 13.0 8.1 3.7 1.0
Bowling Green 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 4.2 6.5 9.3 12.5 14.6 15.1 13.2 10.1 6.5 3.6 1.1 0.2
Kent St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.3 4.2 7.1 10.0 13.5 15.1 15.4 12.8 9.3 5.4 2.7 0.9 0.1
Massachusetts 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.8 6.7 9.5 13.0 15.0 15.3 13.4 10.1 6.2 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.0
Toledo 9 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.7 3.6 6.6 10.1 13.7 16.0 15.6 12.8 9.2 5.8 2.8 1.1 0.2 0.0
Ohio 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.2 6.1 9.4 13.0 14.2 14.5 12.9 10.4 7.0 4.0 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
Buffalo 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.5 8.1 11.9 14.4 15.9 14.2 11.5 8.0 4.6 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Eastern Michigan 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.4 6.6 10.6 13.1 14.9 14.8 13.2 9.5 6.1 3.5 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Michigan 7 - 11 0.1 0.9 2.7 5.6 9.3 13.6 15.7 15.5 13.1 10.4 6.3 4.0 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Ball St. 5 - 13 0.6 2.8 6.8 11.1 15.5 17.0 15.4 13.0 8.2 5.0 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 5 - 13 1.2 4.8 9.8 14.8 16.6 15.7 13.9 9.7 6.5 3.8 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Central Michigan 5 - 13 1.4 5.1 10.2 15.0 16.9 16.6 13.2 9.6 6.1 3.3 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Akron 71.0% 56.0 12.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Miami (OH) 14.7% 7.5 5.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Bowling Green 12.3% 6.4 4.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Kent St. 11.2% 6.0 3.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Massachusetts 5.1% 2.2 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Toledo 2.3% 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ohio 3.4% 1.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Buffalo 1.0% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Western Michigan 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ball St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 0.0% 0.0
Central Michigan 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Akron 43.9% 43.7% 0.1% 12   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 9.0 22.7 8.5 1.3 0.0 56.1 0.3%
Miami (OH) 18.4% 18.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.5 9.4 5.0 1.1 0.1 81.6 0.1%
Bowling Green 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 4.2 4.3 1.6 0.4 0.0 88.9 0.0%
Kent St. 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.0 2.0 0.7 0.0 90.7 0.0%
Massachusetts 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 2.3 2.1 0.7 0.0 94.1 0.0%
Toledo 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.2 96.1 0.0%
Ohio 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.3 96.2 0.0%
Buffalo 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 98.4 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 98.6 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 99.3 0.0%
Ball St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Central Michigan 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Akron 43.9% 0.1% 43.8% 10.9% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 18.4% 0.1% 18.4% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 11.1% 0.0% 11.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kent St. 9.3% 0.0% 9.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 5.9% 0.0% 5.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Toledo 3.9% 0.1% 3.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 3.8% 0.1% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Buffalo 1.6% 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 1.4% 0.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.8 0.2
1st Round 99.8% 1.0 0.3 99.6 0.1
2nd Round 16.8% 0.2 83.2 16.8 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.7% 0.0 96.3 3.7
Elite Eight 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0