Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
77 Akron 40.8%   12   21 - 5 14 - 1 +7.6      +6.5 52 +1.1 142 76.3 22 +7.0 83 +12.5 2
86 Miami (OH) 45.8%   25 - 0 15 - 0 +6.9      +5.7 61 +1.2 138 73.6 52 +18.3 18 +16.4 1
152 Kent St. 6.3%   19 - 7 12 - 3 +0.4      +1.3 131 -0.9 200 74.8 33 +4.1 104 +6.5 3
160 Toledo 5.5%   13 - 13 9 - 6 -0.3      +2.7 104 -3.0 265 70.1 134 -1.6 185 -0.6 5
179 Bowling Green 3.2%   13 - 13 7 - 9 -1.1      -2.5 240 +1.4 131 70.4 129 -2.6 209 -3.5 6
190 Massachusetts 1.6%   14 - 14 6 - 10 -1.9      -0.2 166 -1.7 227 74.5 38 -3.3 220 -6.0 8
208 Buffalo 1.9%   14 - 12 6 - 9 -2.6      +1.6 125 -4.2 298 67.0 229 -2.0 198 -4.5 7
210 Ohio 2.2%   13 - 13 9 - 6 -2.7      -0.8 183 -1.9 235 71.4 100 -1.8 191 -0.5 4
246 Eastern Michigan 0.0%   9 - 19 4 - 12 -4.9      -5.2 306 +0.3 158 66.5 236 -6.4 270 -9.1 13
266 Central Michigan 0.3%   7 - 19 5 - 10 -5.9      -2.3 234 -3.6 284 67.4 211 -9.0 310 -8.1 11
280 Western Michigan 0.0%   9 - 17 4 - 11 -6.8      -0.9 193 -5.8 327 69.0 166 -6.0 261 -7.8 10
313 Ball St. 0.0%   7 - 19 4 - 11 -9.1      -7.6 343 -1.6 218 61.5 346 -9.3 314 -7.6 9
320 Northern Illinois 0.0%   7 - 18 4 - 11 -10.2      -7.9 346 -2.3 243 69.1 163 -7.8 288 -8.7 12


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Feb 24 179 Bowling Green 79 280 Western Michigan 88   
Tue, Feb 24 77 Akron 99 208 Buffalo 85   
Tue, Feb 24 320 Northern Illinois 69 160 Toledo 79   
Tue, Feb 24 266 Central Michigan 81 152 Kent St. 83   
Tue, Feb 24 313 Ball St. 74 190 Massachusetts 73   
Tue, Feb 24 246 Eastern Michigan 64 86 Miami (OH) 74   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Feb 27 77 Akron 88 152 Kent St. 84 66%   
Fri, Feb 27 86 Miami (OH) 87 280 Western Michigan 77 84%   
Sat, Feb 28 179 Bowling Green 79 190 Massachusetts 75 64%   
Sat, Feb 28 210 Ohio 81 160 Toledo 80 52%   
Sat, Feb 28 208 Buffalo 79 266 Central Michigan 73 73%   
Sat, Feb 28 313 Ball St. 64 320 Northern Illinois 66 57%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Akron 1.7 29.3 70.6 0.1
Miami (OH) 1.1 93.9 6.1
Kent St. 3.0 0.1 4.8 95.1
Toledo 4.3 0.2 66.7 33.1
Bowling Green 6.2 12.6 63.7 16.2 7.5 0.1
Massachusetts 7.4 21.8 25.2 46.4 6.4 0.2
Buffalo 6.5 11.2 37.3 40.7 7.0 3.6 0.2
Ohio 4.4 0.2 58.2 41.7
Eastern Michigan 10.9 0.2 3.2 11.9 27.0 20.7 25.2 11.8
Central Michigan 8.9 2.3 12.4 19.0 38.7 19.4 7.5 0.7
Western Michigan 10.4 0.1 0.8 5.3 18.3 35.6 18.9 12.4 8.8
Ball St. 10.2 0.2 2.7 10.5 25.1 25.4 12.7 9.9 13.7
Northern Illinois 10.8 0.3 3.3 14.3 31.1 18.5 16.4 16.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Akron 16 - 2 23 - 6 0.2 7.2 38.0 54.6
Miami (OH) 17 - 1 27 - 1 0.9 9.5 36.6 53.0
Kent St. 14 - 4 21 - 8 3.2 22.3 51.3 23.2
Toledo 10 - 8 14 - 15 14.1 44.3 35.5 6.1
Bowling Green 8 - 10 14 - 14 17.6 48.4 34.1
Massachusetts 7 - 11 15 - 15 23.4 52.5 24.1
Buffalo 8 - 10 16 - 13 6.6 30.6 46.6 16.3
Ohio 10 - 8 14 - 15 23.7 43.7 27.3 5.4
Eastern Michigan 5 - 13 10 - 20 37.0 48.4 14.7
Central Michigan 6 - 12 8 - 21 30.5 46.8 20.1 2.6
Western Michigan 5 - 13 10 - 19 21.8 56.1 19.9 2.2
Ball St. 5 - 13 8 - 21 21.3 42.7 29.1 6.9
Northern Illinois 5 - 13 8 - 20 32.7 52.4 14.4 0.5

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Akron 29.3% 6.1 23.1 0.1
Miami (OH) 93.9% 70.7 23.1 0.1
Kent St. 0.1% 0.1
Toledo
Bowling Green
Massachusetts
Buffalo
Ohio
Eastern Michigan
Central Michigan
Western Michigan
Ball St.
Northern Illinois


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Akron 40.8% 40.8% 0.0% 12   0.0 10.4 25.9 4.4 0.1 59.2 0.0%
Miami (OH) 45.8% 38.2% 7.6% 0.0 0.2 1.5 26.4 17.3 0.5 54.2 12.3%
Kent St. 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 3.4 1.8 0.1 93.7 0.0%
Toledo 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 1.7 2.7 0.4 94.5 0.0%
Bowling Green 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.4 0.3 96.8 0.0%
Massachusetts 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 98.4 0.0%
Buffalo 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.2 98.1 0.0%
Ohio 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 1.3 0.5 97.8 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Central Michigan 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Ball St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 92.4 7.6
1st Round 99.7% 1.0 0.3 97.3 2.4
2nd Round 13.4% 0.1 86.6 13.3 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 2.3% 0.0 97.7 2.3 0.0
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Akron 40.8% 0.0% 40.8% 6.6% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 45.8% 7.5% 40.6% 6.5% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kent St. 6.3% 0.0% 6.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Toledo 5.5% 0.1% 5.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 3.2% 0.1% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 1.6% 0.1% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Buffalo 1.9% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 2.2% 0.2% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%