Mid-American
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
70 Buffalo 32.3%   13   3 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 8 15 - 5 +7.1      +6.6 28 +0.5 151 79.7 20 +5.4 102 0.0 1
73 Ohio 32.8%   4 - 1 0 - 0 23 - 7 15 - 5 +6.9      +5.3 45 +1.6 112 71.1 126 +13.7 33 0.0 1
118 Toledo 13.9%   5 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 10 13 - 7 +3.3      +4.7 57 -1.4 227 70.6 145 +8.6 72 0.0 1
140 Miami (OH) 9.5%   3 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 11 12 - 8 +2.1      +4.1 70 -2.0 246 64.6 290 +6.4 88 0.0 1
142 Kent St. 9.5%   2 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 12 12 - 8 +2.0      +2.1 110 -0.1 178 64.5 292 +2.2 147 0.0 1
166 Akron 4.5%   1 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 14 11 - 9 -0.1      -1.1 206 +1.1 132 65.0 281 -7.1 278 0.0 1
213 Ball St. 2.5%   3 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 16 10 - 10 -2.2      +0.4 162 -2.6 258 74.5 64 -1.0 191 0.0 1
221 Bowling Green 1.9%   1 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 17 9 - 11 -2.7      +1.0 136 -3.7 285 73.1 87 -10.3 310 0.0 1
241 Eastern Michigan 1.0%   2 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 18 8 - 12 -4.1      -3.4 277 -0.7 195 76.6 44 -0.1 178 0.0 1
294 Western Michigan 0.5%   1 - 3 0 - 0 8 - 20 6 - 14 -7.4      -1.5 215 -5.9 330 65.5 271 -2.7 217 0.0 1
300 Central Michigan 0.2%   1 - 4 0 - 0 8 - 23 5 - 15 -7.7      -1.8 229 -5.9 329 75.5 50 -6.8 272 0.0 1
311 Northern Illinois 0.1%   1 - 5 0 - 0 8 - 23 5 - 15 -8.3      -6.2 334 -2.1 248 65.5 273 -5.7 254 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Buffalo 2.3 42.4 25.6 14.0 7.9 4.5 2.8 1.9 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0
Ohio 2.4 38.5 25.9 14.2 9.5 5.2 3.7 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Toledo 4.0 13.7 14.8 18.6 16.4 13.0 9.7 5.6 4.3 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.0
Miami (OH) 4.6 9.7 13.6 14.5 15.1 13.6 12.0 8.5 6.3 3.9 1.8 0.6 0.3
Kent St. 4.7 9.1 11.9 14.6 15.1 12.9 12.0 9.7 6.9 4.1 2.2 1.1 0.4
Akron 5.4 4.7 8.4 12.3 13.6 15.4 13.3 10.6 8.8 6.2 3.8 2.0 1.0
Ball St. 6.6 1.6 3.7 6.6 10.2 12.6 13.7 15.0 13.0 9.7 7.9 4.0 1.9
Bowling Green 7.3 1.0 2.6 4.1 6.9 9.8 11.8 14.5 14.7 14.0 10.3 6.4 4.0
Eastern Michigan 7.7 1.0 2.1 3.6 5.3 7.7 10.4 13.7 15.4 14.1 12.0 9.2 5.6
Western Michigan 9.5 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.5 4.5 7.0 11.5 14.8 20.1 18.4 19.1
Central Michigan 9.8 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.6 5.9 9.1 14.3 19.7 22.9 20.9
Northern Illinois 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.7 2.3 4.9 8.1 12.5 17.7 24.4 27.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Buffalo 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.2 3.4 5.8 8.4 11.3 14.3 16.4 14.9 11.7 7.4 2.1
Ohio 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.6 3.8 6.4 9.0 12.4 14.1 16.2 14.0 10.9 5.7 2.3
Toledo 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 2.7 3.6 5.8 7.1 11.2 12.9 14.0 11.8 11.2 8.6 5.7 3.2 0.7 0.1
Miami (OH) 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.3 6.0 8.4 9.5 11.3 12.7 11.5 11.7 9.1 6.4 4.3 1.7 0.5 0.1
Kent St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 2.9 4.1 5.9 7.7 10.4 12.3 12.2 12.5 10.0 8.3 6.0 3.5 1.6 0.7 0.1
Akron 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.6 4.1 5.4 7.3 10.5 12.3 11.7 12.3 10.4 9.8 5.3 3.4 2.0 0.8 0.4 0.0
Ball St. 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.6 5.1 6.6 9.8 10.8 12.2 13.7 11.4 9.7 7.8 4.0 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.3 0.1
Bowling Green 9 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.6 4.9 7.4 9.7 11.7 12.1 12.2 11.6 9.1 7.0 4.9 2.8 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.1
Eastern Michigan 8 - 12 0.2 0.8 1.4 3.9 6.1 9.6 10.9 11.5 12.8 11.3 10.4 7.5 6.3 3.3 2.1 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.1
Western Michigan 6 - 14 1.0 4.0 6.9 11.8 13.2 14.0 13.1 11.8 9.2 6.3 4.1 2.6 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1
Central Michigan 5 - 15 1.5 4.1 8.6 12.4 16.0 14.1 13.4 9.9 8.3 5.0 3.4 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 5 - 15 1.7 5.9 10.7 14.3 16.2 14.0 12.8 9.1 6.5 4.5 1.9 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Buffalo 42.4% 30.5 9.8 1.7 0.3
Ohio 38.5% 27.4 9.5 1.5 0.2
Toledo 13.7% 8.8 3.9 1.0 0.1
Miami (OH) 9.7% 5.5 3.0 0.9 0.3
Kent St. 9.1% 4.9 3.1 0.9 0.2
Akron 4.7% 2.6 1.5 0.5 0.1
Ball St. 1.6% 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
Bowling Green 1.0% 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Eastern Michigan 1.0% 0.4 0.3 0.2
Western Michigan 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Central Michigan 0.1% 0.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Buffalo 32.3% 29.4% 2.9% 13   0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.9 4.4 9.9 8.4 3.9 0.8 0.1 67.7 4.1%
Ohio 32.8% 28.5% 4.3% 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.5 4.7 11.1 7.7 2.8 0.3 0.0 67.2 6.0%
Toledo 13.9% 13.2% 0.7% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.3 3.8 3.8 3.4 0.8 0.1 86.1 0.8%
Miami (OH) 9.5% 9.3% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 2.4 2.4 1.1 0.2 90.5 0.3%
Kent St. 9.5% 9.2% 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.7 0.3 90.5 0.4%
Akron 4.5% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.5 1.2 0.7 95.5 0.1%
Ball St. 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.3 97.5 0.0%
Bowling Green 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 98.2 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 99.0 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.3 99.6 0.0%
Central Michigan 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.0 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Buffalo 32.3% 1.9% 31.2% 9.2% 3.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Ohio 32.8% 2.7% 31.4% 9.6% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Toledo 13.9% 0.4% 13.7% 2.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 9.5% 0.3% 9.4% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kent St. 9.5% 0.4% 9.3% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Akron 4.5% 0.2% 4.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 2.5% 0.2% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 1.9% 0.3% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 1.0% 0.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 91.5 8.4 0.1
1st Round 99.4% 1.1 0.6 93.8 5.5 0.0
2nd Round 24.7% 0.3 75.3 24.1 0.6
Sweet Sixteen 7.5% 0.1 92.5 7.5 0.1
Elite Eight 1.8% 0.0 98.3 1.8
Final Four 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Final Game 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1