Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
61 Akron 49.3%   12   16 - 4 9 - 1 +9.2      +7.4 46 +1.8 116 76.2 28 +7.7 74 +11.2 2
92 Miami (OH) 28.8%   19 - 0 10 - 0 +6.1      +5.9 57 +0.1 153 73.7 53 +17.3 22 +15.3 1
144 Kent St. 7.0%   14 - 6 7 - 3 +0.9      +1.1 134 -0.2 166 75.4 36 +3.6 109 +4.1 3
151 Bowling Green 4.6%   10 - 9 4 - 6 +0.4      -1.0 195 +1.3 125 70.5 139 -1.5 195 -2.6 6
160 Toledo 4.4%   10 - 10 6 - 4 -0.2      +2.6 104 -2.8 258 70.5 140 -0.8 176 +0.7 4
171 Massachusetts 2.8%   13 - 9 5 - 6 -1.0      -1.1 197 +0.1 158 75.1 37 -1.3 187 -3.7 7
200 Ohio 1.9%   10 - 11 6 - 5 -2.5      -1.1 196 -1.5 229 73.6 59 -1.4 190 -0.8 5
203 Buffalo 1.5%   12 - 8 4 - 6 -2.7      +2.3 110 -5.0 318 67.1 229 -0.8 179 -4.0 8
237 Eastern Michigan 0.4%   8 - 13 3 - 7 -4.3      -3.8 270 -0.5 182 66.2 249 -4.5 236 -7.6 10
275 Western Michigan 0.0%   7 - 12 2 - 7 -6.3      -1.2 199 -5.1 321 69.0 175 -5.9 259 -10.2 13
294 Central Michigan 0.1%   5 - 15 3 - 7 -7.7      -4.5 290 -3.1 273 67.4 220 -8.8 305 -8.0 11
298 Ball St. 0.1%   5 - 14 3 - 6 -8.0      -5.2 307 -2.8 260 62.3 340 -9.3 315 -5.9 9
308 Northern Illinois 0.0%   5 - 14 3 - 7 -8.8      -6.2 330 -2.6 254 69.9 151 -8.2 294 -8.1 12


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Fri, Jan 30 61 Akron 69 144 Kent St. 52   
Sat, Jan 31 237 Eastern Michigan 67 171 Massachusetts 70   
Sat, Jan 31 92 Miami (OH) 85 308 Northern Illinois 61   
Sat, Jan 31 151 Bowling Green 59 294 Central Michigan 62   
Sat, Jan 31 203 Buffalo 83 200 Ohio 95   
Sat, Jan 31 298 Ball St. 55 160 Toledo 73   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Tue, Feb 3 144 Kent St. 81 160 Toledo 83 58%   
Tue, Feb 3 203 Buffalo 79 92 Miami (OH) 85 71%   
Tue, Feb 3 200 Ohio 82 275 Western Michigan 76 74%   
Tue, Feb 3 61 Akron 83 237 Eastern Michigan 72 84%   
Tue, Feb 3 294 Central Michigan 70 171 Massachusetts 80 82%   
Tue, Feb 3 298 Ball St. 63 151 Bowling Green 75 85%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Akron 1.4 59.3 40.0 0.7
Miami (OH) 1.4 65.4 33.7 0.8 0.0
Kent St. 3.2 0.6 5.2 73.3 15.8 3.5 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Bowling Green 5.7 0.0 6.4 19.3 24.4 20.6 15.0 8.6 3.5 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
Toledo 4.3 0.0 0.8 28.9 38.8 16.4 8.9 4.1 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Massachusetts 6.2 1.8 12.0 21.9 21.9 20.0 14.4 5.3 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
Ohio 5.2 0.3 7.7 25.7 27.6 20.5 11.4 5.0 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Buffalo 7.2 0.8 5.8 11.1 17.3 21.8 21.8 11.5 6.0 2.7 1.0 0.3
Eastern Michigan 9.4 0.1 0.7 1.7 3.9 7.8 13.9 22.2 21.1 15.0 9.3 4.4
Western Michigan 11.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 2.0 4.7 10.6 14.2 17.0 21.7 28.4
Central Michigan 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 4.5 9.8 17.8 19.3 18.7 16.0 11.4
Ball St. 9.7 0.1 0.7 2.1 4.2 6.9 12.1 18.5 19.1 15.6 12.6 8.2
Northern Illinois 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 3.3 6.8 13.9 18.8 20.2 21.7 13.1

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Akron 16 - 2 24 - 5 0.0 0.2 1.3 6.3 19.9 37.4 35.0
Miami (OH) 16 - 2 26 - 2 0.1 0.5 2.9 8.4 18.7 28.5 27.5 13.3
Kent St. 12 - 6 20 - 9 0.0 0.5 2.7 9.3 20.2 28.8 24.7 11.3 2.5
Bowling Green 9 - 9 15 - 13 0.0 0.6 3.1 9.9 20.2 27.9 23.7 12.3 2.3
Toledo 11 - 7 15 - 14 0.1 1.3 5.8 15.8 25.2 26.8 17.5 6.5 1.0
Massachusetts 9 - 9 17 - 13 0.6 4.3 14.4 27.0 30.0 18.1 5.2 0.5
Ohio 9 - 9 14 - 15 0.7 5.3 17.1 28.8 27.4 15.6 4.6 0.6
Buffalo 8 - 10 16 - 13 0.5 3.3 11.9 23.9 29.2 20.7 8.5 1.9 0.2
Eastern Michigan 6 - 12 11 - 19 2.0 10.0 22.8 28.2 21.9 11.0 3.3 0.7 0.1
Western Michigan 5 - 13 10 - 19 4.4 16.1 25.9 25.9 16.6 8.0 2.5 0.6 0.1
Central Michigan 6 - 12 8 - 21 4.6 18.0 28.3 27.0 15.0 5.8 1.2 0.2 0.0
Ball St. 6 - 12 9 - 20 4.0 13.9 23.9 25.5 18.5 9.6 3.6 0.9 0.1 0.0
Northern Illinois 5 - 13 8 - 20 7.8 23.4 29.2 23.1 11.7 3.8 0.8 0.1 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Akron 59.3% 34.4 24.6 0.3
Miami (OH) 65.4% 40.6 24.5 0.3
Kent St. 0.6% 0.1 0.3 0.3
Bowling Green
Toledo 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Massachusetts
Ohio
Buffalo
Eastern Michigan
Western Michigan
Central Michigan
Ball St.
Northern Illinois


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Akron 49.3% 49.2% 0.0% 12   0.0 0.0 0.3 18.3 27.6 3.1 0.1 50.7 0.1%
Miami (OH) 28.8% 28.0% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 13.3 14.3 0.8 71.2 1.0%
Kent St. 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.1 1.6 3.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 93.0 0.0%
Bowling Green 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.5 0.7 0.0 95.4 0.0%
Toledo 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.2 95.6 0.0%
Massachusetts 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.1 97.2 0.0%
Ohio 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.3 98.1 0.0%
Buffalo 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 98.6 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 99.6 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Central Michigan 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Ball St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.2 0.8
1st Round 99.8% 1.0 0.2 99.5 0.3
2nd Round 16.0% 0.2 84.0 16.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.9% 0.0 97.1 2.9
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Akron 49.3% 0.0% 49.3% 10.9% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 28.8% 0.8% 28.3% 4.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kent St. 7.0% 0.0% 7.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 4.6% 0.0% 4.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Toledo 4.4% 0.1% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 2.8% 0.0% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 1.9% 0.1% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Buffalo 1.5% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%