Mid-American
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
54 Kent St. 57.8%   13   4 - 2 0 - 0 22 - 6 15 - 3 +9.3      +1.1 145 +8.3 25 75.6 51 +7.3 79 0.0 1
102 Toledo 19.4%   5 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 9 13 - 5 +4.7      +7.0 28 -2.3 242 78.8 17 +3.2 130 0.0 1
137 Akron 10.0%   3 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 12 11 - 7 +2.3      +0.7 153 +1.6 127 58.6 358 +2.9 133 0.0 1
157 Ohio 6.3%   3 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 14 10 - 8 +0.8      +1.5 127 -0.7 201 68.2 194 -3.0 226 0.0 1
186 Ball St. 4.0%   2 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 -0.8      +0.8 151 -1.6 223 71.8 105 -1.7 207 0.0 1
190 Buffalo 3.6%   3 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 9 -1.1      -1.2 204 +0.1 177 83.2 2 -0.8 192 0.0 1
244 Central Michigan 1.2%   2 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 -4.1      -2.8 260 -1.3 218 76.4 41 -6.6 273 0.0 1
263 Eastern Michigan 0.7%   1 - 6 0 - 0 9 - 21 7 - 11 -5.2      -0.6 188 -4.6 301 73.2 79 -11.8 324 0.0 1
266 Northern Illinois 0.6%   2 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -5.4      -2.6 255 -2.8 261 70.5 136 -5.4 256 0.0 1
271 Bowling Green 0.6%   2 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 18 6 - 12 -5.5      -2.6 254 -2.9 265 75.9 47 -7.0 282 0.0 1
286 Miami (OH) 0.5%   2 - 4 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 12 -6.5      +1.2 137 -7.7 348 69.0 174 -9.6 303 0.0 1
312 Western Michigan 0.2%   1 - 6 0 - 0 6 - 22 5 - 13 -8.9      -2.0 230 -6.9 333 66.4 243 -13.2 329 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Kent St. 1.5 70.3 18.3 6.5 2.7 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Toledo 2.7 24.2 35.0 17.9 9.8 5.8 3.4 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Akron 4.1 9.2 17.3 20.3 16.9 12.5 8.9 5.9 4.1 2.4 1.4 0.8 0.3
Ohio 4.7 6.2 13.0 18.6 17.1 13.2 10.1 7.7 5.6 3.9 2.5 1.5 0.6
Ball St. 5.5 3.9 9.3 12.8 14.5 14.2 12.3 10.2 8.1 6.2 4.4 2.7 1.5
Buffalo 5.9 2.4 6.9 10.8 13.4 13.9 13.2 11.5 9.9 7.1 5.7 3.5 1.8
Central Michigan 7.0 1.1 3.9 6.9 9.5 10.9 12.1 12.1 11.6 10.3 9.2 7.1 5.2
Eastern Michigan 8.1 0.4 1.4 3.1 5.4 7.6 9.8 11.5 12.8 13.2 13.4 12.0 9.3
Northern Illinois 7.7 0.6 2.3 4.8 6.9 8.9 10.3 11.3 12.3 12.0 11.7 10.5 8.5
Bowling Green 8.4 0.2 1.1 2.6 4.8 6.8 8.9 10.3 12.5 13.7 14.4 13.6 11.1
Miami (OH) 8.5 0.3 1.1 2.7 4.7 6.6 8.5 10.2 12.0 13.1 14.0 14.4 12.3
Western Michigan 9.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.9 4.4 6.5 9.1 11.7 15.5 20.5 27.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Kent St. 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.5 5.2 9.1 14.0 18.6 21.3 18.2 8.9
Toledo 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.2 3.9 6.7 10.2 13.7 16.4 16.7 14.0 9.4 4.2 0.9
Akron 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.4 4.4 7.2 10.8 13.3 15.1 14.9 12.7 8.8 5.3 2.4 0.7 0.1
Ohio 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 3.9 6.5 9.4 12.0 13.7 14.8 13.3 10.5 6.8 3.5 1.7 0.4 0.1
Ball St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 4.0 6.7 9.6 12.3 13.2 13.8 12.5 10.3 6.7 4.3 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
Buffalo 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.8 5.1 8.2 11.0 13.4 14.5 13.7 11.5 8.3 5.4 2.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Central Michigan 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.2 5.9 8.5 11.2 13.7 14.1 12.7 10.4 7.7 5.2 3.1 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
Eastern Michigan 7 - 11 0.2 0.9 3.0 5.8 9.7 13.1 14.5 14.6 13.0 10.2 7.0 4.3 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 7 - 11 0.2 1.0 2.6 5.3 8.5 11.1 13.2 14.0 13.1 10.9 8.0 5.7 3.4 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Bowling Green 6 - 12 0.3 1.2 3.9 7.1 10.7 13.8 15.0 14.4 12.0 9.0 6.3 3.5 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Miami (OH) 6 - 12 0.3 1.6 4.1 7.5 11.3 14.0 14.8 13.6 11.5 8.6 6.1 3.4 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Michigan 5 - 13 1.2 4.4 9.3 13.6 16.2 16.5 13.7 10.4 7.0 4.0 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Kent St. 70.3% 56.8 11.5 1.7 0.2 0.0
Toledo 24.2% 14.9 7.8 1.4 0.2 0.0
Akron 9.2% 4.9 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.0
Ohio 6.2% 3.0 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
Ball St. 3.9% 2.0 1.4 0.4 0.1
Buffalo 2.4% 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.1
Central Michigan 1.1% 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Northern Illinois 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Bowling Green 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Miami (OH) 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Western Michigan 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Kent St. 57.8% 53.8% 4.0% 13   0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.1 2.1 3.6 12.2 19.1 12.6 3.5 0.5 0.1 42.2 8.7%
Toledo 19.4% 18.8% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.5 4.5 6.4 4.5 1.4 0.3 80.6 0.8%
Akron 10.0% 9.8% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.1 2.6 1.5 0.8 90.0 0.2%
Ohio 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.9 1.7 1.2 93.7 0.0%
Ball St. 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.2 1.0 96.0 0.0%
Buffalo 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.4 96.4 0.0%
Central Michigan 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 98.8 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 99.3 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.4 0.0%
Bowling Green 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.4 0.0%
Miami (OH) 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.5 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Kent St. 57.8% 2.1% 56.7% 19.0% 6.5% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Toledo 19.4% 0.5% 19.1% 3.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Akron 10.0% 0.6% 9.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 6.3% 0.7% 6.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 4.0% 0.5% 3.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Buffalo 3.6% 1.1% 3.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 1.2% 0.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 95.1 4.8 0.0
1st Round 97.8% 1.0 2.2 94.5 3.3 0.0
2nd Round 24.6% 0.2 75.4 24.4 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 7.8% 0.1 92.2 7.8 0.0
Elite Eight 2.1% 0.0 97.9 2.1
Final Four 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Final Game 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1