Buffalo
Mid-American
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.0#72
Expected Predictive Rating+5.3#108
Pace79.7#20
Improvement+0.2#156

Offense
Total Offense+6.6#30
First Shot+4.5#52
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#69
Layup/Dunks-1.0#203
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#25
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#109
Freethrows-0.6#230
Improvement-0.1#193

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#156
First Shot+2.4#102
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#297
Layups/Dunks-1.0#222
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#308
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#53
Freethrows+2.0#69
Improvement+0.3#146
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 1.3% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 2.4% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.1% 38.4% 28.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.3% 8.2% 1.6%
Average Seed 11.9 11.0 12.3
.500 or above 97.6% 99.0% 97.1%
.500 or above in Conference 98.1% 98.8% 97.9%
Conference Champion 43.0% 51.1% 40.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.6% 3.1% 1.0%
First Round30.3% 37.1% 27.8%
Second Round8.2% 12.1% 6.8%
Sweet Sixteen2.6% 3.5% 2.3%
Elite Eight0.6% 1.1% 0.5%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Bonaventure (Away) - 26.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 23 - 4
Quad 37 - 410 - 8
Quad 412 - 122 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 15   @ Michigan L 76-88 15%     0 - 1 +6.0 +9.4 -2.9
  Nov 15, 2021 108   @ North Texas W 69-66 49%     1 - 1 +10.2 +6.8 +3.6
  Nov 20, 2021 266   Rider W 87-65 92%     2 - 1 +13.1 +1.9 +8.9
  Nov 23, 2021 158   Stephen F. Austin L 78-79 73%     2 - 2 -0.5 -0.6 +0.1
  Nov 24, 2021 241   Illinois St. W 106-90 85%     3 - 2 +11.9 +19.4 -9.0
  Dec 04, 2021 39   @ St. Bonaventure L 71-78 27%    
  Dec 08, 2021 126   @ Western Kentucky W 81-80 55%    
  Dec 18, 2021 284   @ Canisius W 87-77 83%    
  Dec 21, 2021 74   UC Irvine W 75-72 60%    
  Dec 29, 2021 136   Miami (OH) W 83-75 76%    
  Jan 01, 2022 260   @ Eastern Michigan W 86-77 81%    
  Jan 04, 2022 312   @ Northern Illinois W 80-68 86%    
  Jan 08, 2022 224   Bowling Green W 90-77 87%    
  Jan 11, 2022 296   @ Western Michigan W 84-73 85%    
  Jan 14, 2022 214   @ Ball St. W 87-81 72%    
  Jan 18, 2022 304   Central Michigan W 93-75 95%    
  Jan 22, 2022 137   Kent St. W 81-73 76%    
  Jan 25, 2022 117   @ Toledo W 83-82 52%    
  Jan 29, 2022 76   Ohio W 83-80 61%    
  Feb 01, 2022 165   @ Akron W 77-73 62%    
  Feb 05, 2022 304   @ Central Michigan W 90-78 85%    
  Feb 08, 2022 260   Eastern Michigan W 89-74 91%    
  Feb 12, 2022 214   Ball St. W 90-78 85%    
  Feb 15, 2022 224   @ Bowling Green W 87-80 72%    
  Feb 19, 2022 296   Western Michigan W 87-70 94%    
  Feb 22, 2022 136   @ Miami (OH) W 80-78 56%    
  Feb 26, 2022 312   Northern Illinois W 83-65 95%    
  Mar 01, 2022 117   Toledo W 86-79 72%    
  Mar 04, 2022 137   @ Kent St. W 78-76 57%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 15 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.7 7.5 11.9 10.8 7.3 2.1 43.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 3.8 7.6 7.6 3.8 0.8 0.1 24.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 3.4 5.6 3.1 0.8 0.1 13.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.7 2.1 0.2 9.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.0 0.8 0.2 4.6 5th
6th 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.7 3.2 5.9 8.7 12.2 13.6 15.9 15.8 11.6 7.3 2.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.1    2.1
19-1 99.1% 7.3    6.7 0.5
18-2 93.2% 10.8    9.1 1.8
17-3 75.4% 11.9    8.0 3.6 0.3
16-4 47.2% 7.5    3.6 3.0 0.9 0.0
15-5 20.0% 2.7    0.6 1.3 0.7 0.1
14-6 4.6% 0.6    0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 43.0% 43.0 30.3 10.4 2.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.1% 78.7% 59.2% 19.5% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 47.8%
19-1 7.3% 63.7% 52.1% 11.6% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.7 24.3%
18-2 11.6% 51.6% 45.6% 6.0% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.6 2.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 5.6 11.1%
17-3 15.8% 38.9% 36.8% 2.0% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.4 1.5 0.2 9.7 3.2%
16-4 15.9% 30.1% 30.0% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.3 2.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 11.1 0.2%
15-5 13.6% 25.7% 25.6% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 10.1 0.2%
14-6 12.2% 19.6% 19.6% 13.4 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.2 9.8
13-7 8.7% 12.8% 12.8% 13.6 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 7.6
12-8 5.9% 8.4% 8.4% 14.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 5.4
11-9 3.2% 4.7% 4.7% 14.9 0.0 0.1 3.1
10-10 1.7% 8.5% 8.5% 15.1 0.1 0.0 1.6
9-11 0.9% 0.9
8-12 0.5% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
7-13 0.4% 0.4
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 31.1% 28.7% 2.3% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.4 4.4 11.0 7.3 3.2 0.9 0.0 68.9 3.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 4.1 6.1 6.7 12.9 47.2 8.0 12.9 6.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 68.6% 7.6 28.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 28.6 2.9