Buffalo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -3.0 214
Results Rating -2.8 213
Consistency 0.15 141
Pace 66.8 231
Improvement -4.1 321

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 130 B- C- C+ B- C+
Defense D 306 D- C C+ C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 176 C 57% 191 -0.2 194
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 222 C+ 39% 134 -1.1 240
Three Pointers 44% 114 B 37% 57 +3.7 64
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.5 116 C+ +1.8 110
1st FG Attempt B- 1.07 101
Second Chance D+ 26.5% 291 B- 1.09 96 C- 0.29 231
Opponents' Steals C- 10.2% 262
Other Turnovers B 6.1% 56
Turnovers C+ 16.3% 149
Freethrows B- 0.33 86 C+ 74% 135 B- 0.25 78
Total Offense C+ +1.4 130

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 46% 231 C 11.3% 195
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 231 C+ 4.7% 165
Three Pointers D+ 80% 265 B 0.3% 53
Total C 55% 194 C+ 5.3% 151


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 153 D 63% 317 +2.6 272
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 329 D+ 41% 292 -1.4 79
Three Pointers 45% 69 D- 38% 339 +4.6 343
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 294 D- +5.0 346
1st FG Attempt D- 1.14 342
Second Chance D 33.3% 296 B 0.94 51 C 0.31 192
Turnovers from Steals B 11.3% 54
Other Turnovers D+ 6.5% 280
Turnovers C+ 17.8% 106
Freethrows B- 0.28 100 D- 75% 332 C+ 0.21 139
Total Defense D -4.4 306

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 56% 322 C- 10.1% 206
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 252 D- 1.4% 347
Three Pointers D- 90% 344 D+ 0.5% 255
Total D- 64% 342 D+ 4.4% 271

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 178 17.8 261
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 129 0.22 325
Consistency 0.12 138 0.12 193
Improvement -4.0 343 -0.1 198

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 234 215 191
Results Rating Rank 236 211 186
Conference Record 6 - 12 7 - 11 8 - 10
Conference Finish 9 7 6
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.8 15.0
.500 or above 76% 100% 26%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round1% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Home) - 67.1% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 44 - 8
Quad 411 - 615 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 225 Southern Miss W 85 - 79 64% -3  28% 1 - 0 C -1 A +14 B+ B- A F -14 F D B
 Fri, Nov 7 210 Green Bay W 83 - 76 61% +3  79% 2 - 0 C +1 B+ +9 B+ C+ B+ D- -7 F A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 11 90 @DePaul W 66 - 53 13% +11  92% 3 - 0 A +22 C +0 D- B B A+ +23 B A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 233 Vermont W 94 - 90 66% +0  45% 4 - 0 C- -3 A- +11 A+ F C+ F -14 F C- C+
 Mon, Nov 24 358 VMI W 78 - 70 89% +1  45% 5 - 0 D -8 D+ -3 D D D D+ -4 B+ F F
 Wed, Nov 26 335 Bucknell W 73 - 71 80% +2  53% 6 - 0 D -10 B- +4 C+ F A F -14 F D+ D+
 Sat, Nov 29 340 @Canisius W 71 - 53 73% +8  75% 7 - 0 B +9 C +0 D+ C- B- A +10 A D D+
 Sat, Dec 6 137 St. Bonaventure L 69 - 77 45% -7  0% 7 - 1 D -10 D- -7 B B F C- -3 D D- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 220 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 83 - 79 39% -1  36% 8 - 1 C+ +4 A +13 A+ C- D F+ -9 F F+ B-
 Sun, Dec 14 250 @East Carolina L 70 - 73 46% +8  76% 8 - 2 D+ -5 D+ -4 F+ C D+ C -1 A F F
 Sat, Dec 20 275 @Western Michigan W 88 - 71 51% +10  87% 9 - 2 1 - 0 B+ +14 A+ +15 C+ A- A+ C -0 D+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 336 @Northern Illinois W 81 - 67 71% +7  83% 10 - 2 2 - 0 B- +5 B +6 B B+ F+ C -1 C- B D+
 Sat, Jan 3 295 Ball St. W 85 - 72 77% +14  98% 11 - 2 3 - 0 C+ +2 A +14 A+ A+ D F -11 D F B
 Sat, Jan 10 219 @Ohio L 80 - 91 39% -4  35% 11 - 3 3 - 1 D -11 C +0 D+ C C+ F -11 F F A+
 Tue, Jan 13 159 Kent St. L 81 - 87 50% -7  6% 11 - 4 3 - 2 D -9 C+ +3 C D+ A+ F -12 F D D+
 Sat, Jan 17 88 @Miami (OH) L 102 - 105 OT 12% +0  47% 11 - 5 3 - 3 B- +6 A +13 A+ D- C- D -6 F A+ D+
 Tue, Jan 20 69 Akron L 63 - 82 21% -17  0% 11 - 6 3 - 4 D- -14 F -13 F+ D- C C -1 D+ A+ B
 Fri, Jan 23 202 Massachusetts L 67 - 68 59% -7  17% 11 - 7 3 - 5 D+ -6 D- -8 B- C- D+ C+ +2 B- C C+
 Tue, Jan 27 166 @Bowling Green W 89 - 78 30% +5  87% 12 - 7 4 - 5 B+ +13 A+ +21 A+ C- A D- -7 C- F D+
 Sat, Jan 31 219 Ohio L 83 - 95 62% -8  5% 12 - 8 4 - 6 F -18 C+ +2 A C- D F -20 F D F
 Tue, Feb 3 88 Miami (OH) L 71 - 73 27% -4  6% 12 - 9 4 - 7 C +1 D+ -2 A- F F B +4 F+ A+ A-
 Sat, Feb 7 186 @South Alabama L 69 - 81 34% -18  2% 12 - 10 D -11 D -4 C F D- D- -6 F C C+
 Wed, Feb 11 295 @Ball St. W 63 - 53 57% +5  91% 13 - 10 5 - 7 B- +5 C -0 C C- C A- +7 C+ C A+
 Tue, Feb 17 336 Northern Illinois L 70 - 72 86% -0  45% 13 - 11 5 - 8 F+ -17 D -5 D- C- B- F -12 F C+ C+
 Sat, Feb 21 202 @Massachusetts W 86 - 82 OT 36% -2  25% 14 - 11 6 - 8 C+ +5 B +7 B- B- B- C- -3 F A C+
 Tue, Feb 24 69 @Akron L 85 - 99 10% -8  23% 14 - 12 6 - 9 C- -3 C +2 F+ C C+ C- -2 F A- A
 Sat, Feb 28 261 Central Michigan L 70 - 75 70% -5  26% 14 - 13 6 - 10 D- -14 D+ -3 C- C- A- F -11 F D+ A
 Tue, Mar 3 248 Eastern Michigan W 75 - 70 67%
 Fri, Mar 6 153 @Toledo L 77 - 83 28%
Totals 15 - 14 7 - 11 -3 C+ +1 D+ C+ C+ D -4 B C+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C C+ B C+ 39% 34% 44% C+ B- D+ B- C- C+ B- C+ B- D D D+ D- D- 39% 16% 45% D D- D B C C+ B- D- C+
1.11 57% 39% 37% +2 0 1.07 26% 1.1 .29 16% .33 74% .25 1.15 63% 41% 38% +5 +1 1.14 33% 0.9 .31 18% .28 75% .25
Nov
3		 Southern Miss A D- A+ A B+ 36% 7% 58% B+ B+ A D- B- A A+ C A+ F D F D F 49% 13% 38% F F C+ F D B D+ F F
1.29 50% 67% 42% +6 +2 1.18 37% 0.9 .34 12% .62 69% .43 1.20 64% 67% 35% +7 +2 1.20 29% 1.3 .38 21% .39 95% .37
Nov
7		 Green Bay B+ B- B- A- B 49% 13% 38% A- B+ C- A- C+ B+ A+ F A+ D- F F F F 38% 4% 58% F+ F A A+ A+ B- D- D- F+
1.29 63% 40% 40% +6 +2 1.18 28% 1.3 .38 11% .72 66% .47 1.18 71% 50% 42% +12 +2 1.31 15% 0.5 .08 17% .39 81% .32
Nov
11		 DePaul C F B C+ D- 36% 32% 32% D+ D- D+ A+ B B A+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ F B+ 32% 17% 51% C B D A+ A+ A+ F A+ C+
0.98 31% 43% 36% -7 -2 0.84 26% 1.3 .34 18% .49 70% .34 0.78 38% 14% 43% -3 0 0.95 34% 0.3 .11 30% .42 50% .21
Nov
18		 Vermont A- A A+ A+ A+ 41% 16% 43% B+ A+ F+ F F C+ A+ A+ A+ F D+ F F F 43% 8% 49% F F B+ F C- C+ F F F
1.29 70% 50% 43% +12 +1 1.29 19% 0.5 .10 12% .58 84% .48 1.23 64% 50% 48% +14 +2 1.33 19% 1.4 .26 16% .36 82% .30
Nov
24		 VMI D+ F A- B+ F+ 45% 5% 50% A+ D F+ B- D D A+ B- A+ D+ C- F A+ A- 30% 17% 53% B- B+ F F F F F+ C+ D-
1.17 50% 50% 40% +1 +2 1.10 31% 1.1 .34 18% .68 76% .51 1.05 56% 44% 18% -12 0 0.77 36% 1.2 .43 12% .34 70% .24
Nov
26		 Bucknell B- D- A A- C 35% 8% 56% A- C+ C- F F A B C- B- F F A F+ F 40% 9% 51% F+ F F A+ D+ D+ B- A+ A
1.20 53% 50% 41% +5 +1 1.15 31% 0.6 .19 13% .36 74% .26 1.17 68% 25% 38% +6 +2 1.17 41% 0.8 .31 18% .24 58% .14
Nov
29		 Canisius C D C C D+ 23% 10% 67% C D+ F A+ C- B- C A+ B A B- F+ A+ A+ 40% 23% 36% D+ A B F D D+ C+ C C
1.10 55% 40% 34% 0 0 1.02 19% 1.7 .31 14% .31 82% .25 0.82 47% 45% 12% -15 0 0.72 23% 1.3 .29 19% .27 71% .19
Dec
6		 St. Bonaventure D- A D C B- 43% 13% 43% B B F+ A+ B F D- F F C- F+ B D D+ 36% 18% 47% D D F A- D- A+ C- F D
1.03 70% 33% 35% +5 +1 1.15 21% 1.8 .38 25% .22 64% .14 1.15 69% 38% 38% +7 0 1.16 52% 0.8 .42 25% .28 86% .24
Dec
9		 Maryland Baltimore Co. A A- A+ A+ A+ 50% 21% 29% C+ A+ B- F+ C- D A A+ A+ F+ D+ F D F 30% 23% 47% C+ F D- F+ F+ B- A+ F A
1.25 67% 60% 43% +13 +1 1.29 31% 0.9 .27 15% .32 89% .28 1.19 63% 67% 36% +9 -1 1.19 27% 1.1 .31 17% .14 100% .14
Dec
14		 East Carolina D+ F A C F 39% 16% 45% B F+ B D- C D+ A+ C+ A+ C A+ C+ A+ A+ 42% 21% 37% D- A D F F F F F+ F
1.02 35% 50% 35% -7 +1 0.90 36% 1.0 .36 19% .38 76% .29 1.06 41% 36% 21% -15 0 0.73 37% 1.2 .44 10% .49 77% .37
Dec
20		 Western Michigan A+ A- F C C+ 34% 8% 58% B- C+ C A+ A- A+ A- B+ A C C C C C- 35% 14% 51% D- D+ C A+ A+ F A C- A-
1.34 71% 25% 34% +4 +1 1.12 30% 1.5 .45 6% .39 75% .29 1.08 55% 38% 34% -1 +1 1.02 29% 0.4 .12 11% .20 75% .15
Dec
31		 Northern Illinois B C F A+ B 43% 15% 43% C B B- A B+ F+ A+ D+ A- C F F A+ C- 38% 4% 58% D- C- C- A B D+ B F D-
1.19 60% 29% 45% +6 +1 1.17 34% 1.3 .44 21% .42 70% .29 0.98 68% 50% 24% -4 +2 0.98 30% 0.6 .18 21% .29 88% .26
Jan
3		 Ball St. A A- A+ A+ A+ 43% 9% 48% A A+ C+ A+ A+ D A- A+ A+ F A B+ F+ D 31% 16% 53% C D F D- F B F F F
1.31 68% 50% 43% +12 +2 1.30 35% 1.8 .61 20% .35 94% .33 1.11 43% 29% 38% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.0 .37 19% .44 83% .36
Jan
10		 Ohio C D- A+ D D+ 41% 19% 41% C D+ C+ D+ C C+ B F C F F F F F 43% 26% 32% C- F F F F A+ D F F
1.09 50% 50% 32% -2 0 0.98 35% 1.0 .35 15% .35 64% .22 1.24 75% 58% 40% +15 0 1.32 50% 1.3 .64 24% .36 85% .31
Jan
13		 Kent St. C+ C F A C 38% 22% 40% C- C F A+ D+ A+ A C- A- F F A+ F F 44% 16% 40% D F D+ D D D+ A- D B
1.15 57% 25% 41% +1 0 1.04 15% 1.7 .26 7% .41 70% .29 1.24 68% 13% 45% +7 +1 1.18 36% 1.2 .42 17% .31 78% .24
Jan
17		 Miami (OH) A C+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 25% 40% C- A+ D D- D- C- B+ A A D F A+ F F 48% 10% 43% F F A A+ A+ D+ D+ A+ B-
1.22 62% 53% 50% +15 -1 1.30 24% 0.8 .18 18% .34 83% .28 1.26 76% 17% 46% +14 +2 1.34 15% 0.8 .12 13% .36 62% .22
Jan
20		 Akron F C- B- F F 30% 19% 52% D+ F+ C F D- C D- D D- C C+ B+ F D 29% 12% 59% C+ D+ B+ A+ A+ B F+ B D-
0.90 56% 40% 25% -7 0 0.87 32% 0.7 .23 19% .23 69% .16 1.17 60% 33% 43% +8 +1 1.20 29% 1.0 .29 19% .33 74% .25
Jan
23		 Massachusetts D- A+ B- C B 23% 26% 51% F B- F A+ C- D+ F F F C+ D A- B+ B- 36% 28% 36% B B- D+ B C C+ B- B B-
1.01 82% 42% 33% +6 -2 1.11 17% 1.6 .28 18% .26 50% .13 1.03 65% 31% 29% -2 -1 0.96 34% 1.1 .37 20% .30 63% .19
Jan
27		 Bowling Green A+ D A+ A+ A+ 40% 10% 50% B A+ D B+ C- A B+ B+ A- D- D+ A+ C- C 55% 12% 33% D- C- D F F D+ B A+ A
1.33 53% 60% 54% +15 +1 1.35 22% 1.2 .26 13% .38 77% .29 1.17 61% 17% 35% 0 +2 1.06 31% 1.4 .43 15% .26 60% .16
Jan
31		 Ohio C+ B+ A+ A A 48% 26% 26% C- A F A+ C- D A+ D+ A+ F F F B+ F 46% 28% 26% C F F B- D F F F F
1.16 64% 50% 42% +9 0 1.20 22% 1.5 .33 18% .46 70% .32 1.33 72% 53% 29% +9 0 1.19 35% 0.9 .32 8% .40 77% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Miami (OH) D+ A- C- A A- 35% 17% 48% C+ A- B+ F F F B+ B A- B F F A- F+ 43% 20% 37% C F+ A- A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+
1.04 69% 38% 41% +9 0 1.20 36% 0.2 .06 22% .34 78% .26 1.07 78% 64% 30% +12 0 1.26 18% 0.4 .07 19% .11 50% .05
Feb
7		 South Alabama D C F+ B- C+ 9% 18% 74% F C D- F F D- F F F D- B+ F F F 49% 10% 41% F+ F A- F C C+ F B- D-
0.99 60% 30% 36% +1 -2 1.00 24% 0.8 .20 20% .11 67% .07 1.16 50% 80% 45% +7 +2 1.20 17% 1.6 .28 14% .40 63% .25
Feb
11		 Ball St. C C+ B- D C- 43% 12% 45% A- C C- C- C- C A- A+ A+ A- A- A+ C+ B- 45% 11% 43% F C+ F+ B+ C A+ A F B+
1.06 61% 40% 32% 0 +1 1.05 32% 1.0 .32 19% .35 88% .31 0.90 45% 20% 32% -10 +2 0.86 31% 0.7 .23 22% .19 78% .15
Feb
17		 Northern Illinois D C+ F D+ D- 45% 16% 39% C D- F A+ C- B- C- C- D+ F C- A F F 31% 9% 60% C F C+ B- C+ C+ B F C
1.07 64% 13% 32% -3 +1 0.98 16% 2.0 .31 15% .31 71% .22 1.10 57% 25% 48% +11 +1 1.27 29% 0.8 .21 23% .30 73% .22
Feb
21		 Massachusetts B C- F A+ B 35% 19% 46% C- B- F+ A+ B- B- A+ C A C- F F F F 35% 24% 41% B- F D- A+ A C+ D- A C-
1.19 59% 22% 45% +5 0 1.13 20% 1.7 .33 15% .49 73% .36 1.13 71% 58% 40% +13 -1 1.27 37% 0.7 .27 19% .38 59% .22
Feb
24		 Akron C C- F F F 45% 9% 45% A- F+ B D- C C+ A+ A- A+ C- D- C F F 53% 9% 38% F F B B+ A- A F F F
1.06 56% 0% 28% -9 +2 0.89 38% 0.8 .31 17% .50 79% .39 1.23 68% 40% 45% +12 +2 1.30 30% 1.1 .33 21% .46 90% .41
Feb
28		 Central Michigan D+ B- F D+ D 48% 10% 42% B+ C- F A+ C- A- F D F F C+ F F F 37% 23% 40% D+ F F A+ D+ A F+ F F
1.10 64% 0% 32% -2 +2 1.02 24% 1.6 .39 13% .16 67% .11 1.18 56% 50% 47% +10 0 1.21 45% 0.8 .35 24% .35 82% .29



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 8.5 8.5 6th
7th 2.6 52.0 10.8 65.4 7th
8th 10.5 4.4 14.9 8th
9th 10.8 10.8 9th
10th 0.4 0.4 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 24.4 56.4 19.3 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 19.3% 1.9% 1.9% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 18.9
7-11 56.4% 0.8% 0.8% 15.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 55.9
6-12 24.4% 24.4
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 14.8 99.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 14.3 9.7 48.6 41.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.4%
Lose Out 24.4%