Buffalo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -3.3 218
Results Rating -2.7 212
Consistency 0.15 154
Pace 66.4 240
Improvement -4.9 338

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 128 B- C- C+ B- C+
Defense D 312 D- C C+ C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 181 C 57% 190 -0.2 188
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 231 C+ 40% 117 -1.1 245
Three Pointers 44% 111 B 37% 48 +3.9 54
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.5 115 B- +2.1 103
1st FG Attempt B- 1.07 94
Second Chance D+ 26.4% 291 B- 1.09 91 C- 0.29 228
Opponents' Steals C- 10.1% 251
Other Turnovers B 6.2% 61
Turnovers C+ 16.2% 146
Freethrows B- 0.33 101 C+ 74% 131 B- 0.24 94
Total Offense C+ +1.6 128

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 44% 253 C- 11.5% 216
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 22% 232 C+ 4.4% 142
Three Pointers D+ 79% 289 B 0.4% 51
Total C- 54% 213 C+ 5.4% 166


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 138 D 63% 315 +2.9 278
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 334 D 43% 325 -1.2 87
Three Pointers 44% 74 D- 38% 330 +4.2 338
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 316 D- +4.9 346
1st FG Attempt D- 1.14 344
Second Chance D+ 33.0% 290 B- 0.96 72 C 0.32 209
Turnovers from Steals B- 11.0% 64
Other Turnovers D+ 6.5% 279
Turnovers C+ 17.5% 125
Freethrows B- 0.28 102 D- 75% 327 C+ 0.21 135
Total Defense D -4.9 312

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 56% 327 C- 10.0% 212
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 258 D- 1.1% 352
Three Pointers D- 90% 346 D+ 0.5% 259
Total D- 64% 344 D+ 4.4% 273

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.5 196 17.7 244
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 134 0.21 314
Consistency 0.12 115 0.13 244
Improvement -3.7 333 -1.2 248

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 229 218 207
Results Rating Rank 216 213 185
Conference Record 7 - 11 7 - 11 7 - 11
Conference Finish 7 7 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 10% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.9 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round1% 10% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 33 - 44 - 9
Quad 411 - 615 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 213 Southern Miss W 85 - 79 61% -3  28% 1 - 0 C -0 A +14 B+ B- A F -13 F D+ B+
 Fri, Nov 7 217 Green Bay W 83 - 76 61% +3  79% 2 - 0 C +1 B+ +8 B+ C+ B D- -7 F A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 11 96 @DePaul W 66 - 53 13% +11  92% 3 - 0 A +22 C +1 D- B B A+ +22 B A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 231 Vermont W 94 - 90 64% +0  45% 4 - 0 C- -3 A- +11 A+ F C+ F -14 F C- C+
 Mon, Nov 24 359 VMI W 78 - 70 89% +1  45% 5 - 0 D -9 D+ -3 D+ D D D -5 B+ F F
 Wed, Nov 26 330 Bucknell W 73 - 71 77% +2  53% 6 - 0 D -9 B- +5 C+ F A F -14 F D+ D+
 Sat, Nov 29 339 @Canisius W 71 - 53 72% +8  75% 7 - 0 B +9 C +0 D+ C- C+ A +10 A D C-
 Sat, Dec 6 139 St. Bonaventure L 69 - 77 45% -7  0% 7 - 1 D -10 D- -7 B B F D+ -4 D F+ A+
 Tue, Dec 9 198 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 83 - 79 34% -1  36% 8 - 1 C+ +5 A +13 A+ C- D D- -8 F F+ C+
 Sun, Dec 14 235 @East Carolina L 70 - 73 43% +8  76% 8 - 2 C- -4 D+ -4 F+ C D C -1 A F+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 276 @Western Michigan W 88 - 71 51% +10  87% 9 - 2 1 - 0 B+ +13 A+ +15 C+ A- A+ C -0 D+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 343 @Northern Illinois W 81 - 67 73% +7  83% 10 - 2 2 - 0 C+ +4 B- +5 B- B+ F C -1 D+ B C-
 Sat, Jan 3 280 Ball St. W 85 - 72 74% +14  98% 11 - 2 3 - 0 C+ +3 A+ +15 A+ A+ D F -11 D+ F B
 Sat, Jan 10 220 @Ohio L 80 - 91 39% -4  35% 11 - 3 3 - 1 D- -11 C- -1 D+ C- C+ F -10 F F A+
 Tue, Jan 13 160 Kent St. L 81 - 87 48% -7  6% 11 - 4 3 - 2 D -9 C+ +3 C D+ A+ F -11 F D D+
 Sat, Jan 17 93 @Miami (OH) L 102 - 105 OT 13% +0  47% 11 - 5 3 - 3 B- +6 A +13 A+ D- C- D -6 F A+ D+
 Tue, Jan 20 69 Akron L 63 - 82 20% -17  0% 11 - 6 3 - 4 D- -13 F -12 F+ D- C C -1 D+ A B
 Fri, Jan 23 199 Massachusetts L 67 - 68 57% -7  17% 11 - 7 3 - 5 D+ -6 D- -8 B- C- D+ C+ +2 B C C+
 Tue, Jan 27 166 @Bowling Green W 89 - 78 28% +5  87% 12 - 7 4 - 5 B+ +14 A+ +21 A+ C- A D- -7 C- F D+
 Sat, Jan 31 220 Ohio L 83 - 95 62% -8  5% 12 - 8 4 - 6 F -18 C +1 A- C- D F -20 F D+ F
 Tue, Feb 3 93 Miami (OH) L 71 - 73 27% -4  6% 12 - 9 4 - 7 C +1 D+ -3 A- F F B +4 F+ A+ A-
 Sat, Feb 7 205 @South Alabama L 69 - 81 35% -18  2% 12 - 10 D -11 D -5 C- F D- D -6 F C B-
 Wed, Feb 11 280 @Ball St. W 63 - 53 53% +5  91% 13 - 10 5 - 7 B- +6 C +0 C C- C- A- +7 C+ C A
 Tue, Feb 17 343 Northern Illinois L 70 - 72 87% -0  45% 13 - 11 5 - 8 F+ -18 D -6 D- C- B- F -12 F C+ B-
 Sat, Feb 21 199 @Massachusetts W 86 - 82 OT 34% -2  25% 14 - 11 6 - 8 C+ +5 B +7 B- B- B- C- -3 F A C+
 Tue, Feb 24 69 @Akron L 85 - 99 9% -8  23% 14 - 12 6 - 9 C- -2 C+ +2 F+ C C+ C- -3 F B+ A
 Sat, Feb 28 270 Central Michigan L 70 - 75 71% -5  26% 14 - 13 6 - 10 D- -14 D+ -4 D+ C- A F -11 F D+ A
 Tue, Mar 3 249 Eastern Michigan W 72 - 67 68% +7  86% 15 - 13 7 - 10 C- -3 C- -1 C C- B C- -2 B- C C-
 Fri, Mar 6 142 @Toledo L 78 - 98 25% -6  6% 15 - 14 7 - 11 F+ -16 B+ +9 A+ D+ C+ F -27 F F F
 Thu, Mar 12 69 Akron L 76 - 88 13%
Totals 15 - 15 7 - 11 -3 C+ +2 A- B- C+ D -5 B C+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C C+ B B- 39% 34% 44% C+ B- D+ B- C- C+ B- C+ B- D D D D- D- 40% 16% 44% D D- D+ B- C C+ B- D- C+
1.11 57% 40% 37% +2 0 1.07 26% 1.1 .29 16% .33 74% .24 1.16 63% 43% 38% +5 +1 1.14 33% 1.0 .32 18% .28 75% .25
Nov
3		 Southern Miss A D- A+ A+ B+ 36% 7% 58% B+ B+ A- D- B- A A+ C- A+ F D F D F 49% 13% 38% F F B- F D+ B+ D+ F F
1.29 50% 67% 42% +6 +2 1.18 37% 0.9 .34 12% .62 69% .43 1.20 64% 67% 35% +7 +2 1.20 29% 1.3 .38 21% .39 95% .37
Nov
7		 Green Bay B+ B- B- A- B 49% 13% 38% A- B+ D+ A C+ B A+ F A+ D- F F F F 38% 4% 58% F+ F A A+ A+ B- D- D- F+
1.29 63% 40% 40% +6 +2 1.18 28% 1.3 .38 11% .72 66% .47 1.18 71% 50% 42% +12 +2 1.31 15% 0.5 .08 17% .39 81% .32
Nov
11		 DePaul C F B C+ D- 36% 32% 32% D+ D- D+ A+ B B A+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ F B 32% 17% 51% C B D A+ A+ A+ F A+ C+
0.98 31% 43% 36% -7 -2 0.84 26% 1.3 .34 18% .49 70% .34 0.78 38% 14% 43% -3 0 0.95 34% 0.3 .11 30% .42 50% .21
Nov
18		 Vermont A- A A+ A+ A+ 41% 16% 43% B+ A+ D- F F C+ A+ A+ A+ F D+ F F F 43% 8% 49% F F B+ F C- C+ F F F
1.29 70% 50% 43% +12 +1 1.29 19% 0.5 .10 12% .58 84% .48 1.23 64% 50% 48% +14 +2 1.33 19% 1.4 .26 16% .36 82% .30
Nov
24		 VMI D+ F A- A- F+ 45% 5% 50% A+ D+ F+ B- D D A+ C+ A+ D C- F A+ A- 30% 17% 53% B- B+ F F F F F+ C+ D-
1.17 50% 50% 40% +1 +3 1.10 31% 1.1 .34 18% .68 76% .51 1.05 56% 44% 18% -12 0 0.77 36% 1.2 .43 12% .34 70% .24
Nov
26		 Bucknell B- D- A A C 35% 8% 56% A- C+ C- F F A B C- B- F F A F+ F 40% 9% 51% F+ F F A+ D+ D+ B- A+ A-
1.20 53% 50% 41% +5 +1 1.15 31% 0.6 .19 13% .36 74% .26 1.17 68% 25% 38% +6 +2 1.17 41% 0.8 .31 18% .24 58% .14
Nov
29		 Canisius C D- C+ C D+ 23% 10% 67% C D+ F A+ C- C+ C- A+ B- A B- F+ A+ A+ 40% 23% 36% D+ A B- F D C- C+ C C
1.10 55% 40% 34% 0 0 1.02 19% 1.7 .31 14% .31 82% .25 0.82 47% 45% 12% -15 0 0.72 23% 1.3 .29 19% .27 71% .19
Dec
6		 St. Bonaventure D- A D C B- 43% 13% 43% B+ B F+ A+ B F F+ F F D+ F B- D D 36% 18% 47% D D F A- F+ A+ C- F D
1.03 70% 33% 35% +5 +1 1.15 21% 1.8 .38 25% .22 64% .14 1.15 69% 38% 38% +7 0 1.16 52% 0.8 .42 25% .28 86% .24
Dec
9		 Maryland Baltimore Co. A B+ A+ A+ A+ 50% 21% 29% C+ A+ B- F+ C- D A A+ A+ D- D+ F D+ F 30% 23% 47% C+ F D- D- F+ C+ A+ F A
1.25 67% 60% 43% +13 +1 1.29 31% 0.9 .27 15% .32 89% .28 1.19 63% 67% 36% +9 -1 1.19 27% 1.1 .31 17% .14 100% .14
Dec
14		 East Carolina D+ F A+ C F 39% 16% 45% B F+ B F+ C D A+ B- A+ C A+ C+ A+ A+ 42% 21% 37% D- A D F+ F+ F F F+ F
1.02 35% 50% 35% -7 +1 0.90 36% 1.0 .36 19% .38 76% .29 1.06 41% 36% 21% -15 0 0.73 37% 1.2 .44 10% .49 77% .37
Dec
20		 Western Michigan A+ A- F C C+ 34% 8% 58% B- C+ C A+ A- A+ A B+ A C C C C C- 35% 14% 51% F+ D+ C A+ A+ F A C- A-
1.34 71% 25% 34% +4 +1 1.12 30% 1.5 .45 6% .39 75% .29 1.08 55% 38% 34% -1 +1 1.02 29% 0.4 .12 11% .20 75% .15
Dec
31		 Northern Illinois B- C F A+ B- 43% 15% 43% C B- B- A B+ F A+ D+ A- C F F A+ C- 38% 4% 58% D- D+ C- A B C- B F D
1.19 60% 29% 45% +6 +1 1.17 34% 1.3 .44 21% .42 70% .29 0.98 68% 50% 24% -4 +2 0.98 30% 0.6 .18 21% .29 88% .26
Jan
3		 Ball St. A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 43% 9% 48% A A+ C+ A+ A+ D A- A+ A+ F A B+ F+ D 31% 16% 53% C D+ F D- F B F F F
1.31 68% 50% 43% +12 +2 1.30 35% 1.8 .61 20% .35 94% .33 1.11 43% 29% 38% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.0 .37 19% .44 83% .36
Jan
10		 Ohio C- D- A+ D D+ 41% 19% 41% C D+ C D+ C- C+ B- F C- F F F F F 43% 26% 32% C F F F F A+ D F F
1.09 50% 50% 32% -2 0 0.98 35% 1.0 .35 15% .35 64% .22 1.24 75% 58% 40% +15 0 1.32 50% 1.3 .64 24% .36 85% .31
Jan
13		 Kent St. C+ C F A C 38% 22% 40% D+ C F A+ D+ A+ A- D+ B+ F F A+ F F 44% 16% 40% D F C- D- D D+ A- D B
1.15 57% 25% 41% +1 0 1.04 15% 1.7 .26 7% .41 70% .29 1.24 68% 13% 45% +7 +1 1.18 36% 1.2 .42 17% .31 78% .24
Jan
17		 Miami (OH) A C+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 25% 40% D+ A+ D F D- C- B+ A A D F A+ F F 48% 10% 43% F F A A+ A+ D+ D+ A+ B-
1.22 62% 53% 50% +15 -1 1.30 24% 0.8 .18 18% .34 83% .28 1.26 76% 17% 46% +14 +2 1.34 15% 0.8 .12 13% .36 62% .22
Jan
20		 Akron F C- B- F F+ 30% 19% 52% D+ F+ C F D- C D D+ D C C B+ F D 29% 12% 59% C+ D+ B+ A+ A B F B- F+
0.90 56% 40% 25% -7 0 0.87 32% 0.7 .23 19% .23 69% .16 1.17 60% 33% 43% +8 +1 1.20 29% 1.0 .29 19% .33 74% .25
Jan
23		 Massachusetts D- A+ B- C B+ 23% 26% 51% F B- F A+ C- D+ F F F C+ D A- B+ B- 36% 28% 36% B B D B C C+ B- B B
1.01 82% 42% 33% +6 -2 1.11 17% 1.6 .28 18% .26 50% .13 1.03 65% 31% 29% -2 -1 0.96 34% 1.1 .37 20% .30 63% .19
Jan
27		 Bowling Green A+ D A+ A+ A+ 40% 10% 50% B A+ D B+ C- A B+ B+ A- D- D+ A+ C- C- 55% 12% 33% D- C- D F F D+ B+ A+ A
1.33 53% 60% 54% +15 +1 1.35 22% 1.2 .26 13% .38 77% .29 1.17 61% 17% 35% 0 +2 1.06 31% 1.4 .43 15% .26 60% .16
Jan
31		 Ohio C B A+ A A 48% 26% 26% C- A- F A+ C- D A+ D A+ F F F B+ F 46% 28% 26% C F F B D+ F F F+ F
1.16 64% 50% 42% +9 0 1.20 22% 1.5 .33 18% .46 70% .32 1.33 72% 53% 29% +9 0 1.19 35% 0.9 .32 8% .40 77% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Miami (OH) D+ A- C- A A- 35% 17% 48% C+ A- B+ F F F A- B- A- B F F A- F+ 43% 20% 37% C F+ A- A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+
1.04 69% 38% 41% +9 0 1.20 36% 0.2 .06 22% .34 78% .26 1.07 78% 64% 30% +12 0 1.26 18% 0.4 .07 19% .11 50% .05
Feb
7		 South Alabama D C D- B- C+ 9% 18% 74% F C- D- F F D- F F F D B+ F F F 49% 10% 41% F F A- F C B- F B- D-
0.99 60% 30% 36% +1 -2 1.00 24% 0.8 .20 20% .11 67% .07 1.16 50% 80% 45% +7 +2 1.20 17% 1.6 .28 14% .40 63% .25
Feb
11		 Ball St. C C+ C+ D C- 43% 12% 45% A- C C C- C- C- A- A+ A+ A- A- A+ C+ B 45% 11% 43% F+ C+ F+ A- C A A F B+
1.06 61% 40% 32% 0 +1 1.05 32% 1.0 .32 19% .35 88% .31 0.90 45% 20% 32% -10 +2 0.86 31% 0.7 .23 22% .19 78% .15
Feb
17		 Northern Illinois D B- F D F+ 45% 16% 39% C D- F A+ C- B- C- C- D+ F C- A+ F F 31% 9% 60% C F C B- C+ B- B F C
1.07 64% 13% 32% -3 +1 0.98 16% 2.0 .31 15% .31 71% .22 1.10 57% 25% 48% +11 +1 1.27 29% 0.8 .21 23% .30 73% .22
Feb
21		 Massachusetts B C- F A+ B 35% 19% 46% C- B- F+ A+ B- B- A+ C A C- F F F F 35% 24% 41% B- F F+ A+ A C+ D- A C
1.19 59% 22% 45% +5 0 1.13 20% 1.7 .33 15% .49 73% .36 1.13 71% 58% 40% +13 -1 1.27 37% 0.7 .27 19% .38 59% .22
Feb
24		 Akron C+ C- F F F 45% 9% 45% A- F+ B+ F+ C C+ A+ A- A+ C- D- C F F+ 53% 9% 38% F F B B+ B+ A F F F
1.06 56% 0% 28% -9 +2 0.89 38% 0.8 .31 17% .50 79% .39 1.23 68% 40% 45% +12 +2 1.30 30% 1.1 .33 21% .46 90% .41
Feb
28		 Central Michigan D+ B- F D+ D 48% 10% 42% B+ D+ F A+ C- A F D F F C+ F F F 37% 23% 40% D+ F F A+ D+ A F F F
1.10 64% 0% 32% -2 +2 1.02 24% 1.6 .39 13% .16 67% .11 1.18 56% 50% 47% +10 0 1.21 45% 0.8 .35 24% .35 82% .29
Mar
3		 Eastern Michigan C- C+ C+ C- C+ 32% 21% 47% D+ C F A+ C- B A- B+ A C- B+ F A+ B+ 58% 22% 20% F B- A- F C C- D+ F D-
1.08 60% 40% 32% -1 -1 1.00 16% 1.8 .29 14% .38 77% .30 1.01 52% 45% 20% -6 +1 0.92 21% 1.3 .27 17% .29 81% .23
Mar
6		 Toledo B+ B- A+ A+ A+ 49% 10% 41% B+ A+ B- F D+ C+ F B F+ F F F F F 41% 19% 41% D- F D F F F C+ A B
1.22 63% 60% 50% +14 +2 1.35 37% 0.8 .30 17% .15 75% .11 1.53 68% 70% 45% +17 0 1.37 33% 1.4 .47 9% .26 67% .17



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 100.0 100.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 100.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 100.0% 1.2% 1.2% 14.9 0.2 0.9 0.1 98.8
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 14.9 98.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 14.9 14.9 76.0 9.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 7.1%
Lose Out 88.2%