Buffalo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.3 #179
Expected Predictive Rating +5.3 #94
Pace 66.2 #268
Improvement -1.4 #263

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #110 B- A+ C C B+
Defense #293 D C C C D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #117 1.11 #236 +0.4 #161
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #320 0.82 #106 -2.3 #289
Three Pointers 46% #87 1.12 #62 +4.8 #44
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #99 +2.9 #102
Freethrows 22.2 #12 76% #92 16.8 #10
Second Chance 27.9% #262 1.15 #69 0.32 #167
Turnovers 16.3% #154
Total Offense +2.4 #110

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #208 1.24 #278 -1.1 #220
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #353 0.85 #299 +2.1 #50
Three Pointers 49% #23 1.04 #225 -4.8 #334
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #295 -3.8 #295
Freethrows 15.8 #110 80% #360 12.6 #192
Second Chance 32.3% #251 0.95 #78 0.31 #153
Turnovers 16.2% #209
Total Defense -3.7 #293

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.2% #53 1.8% #318
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.5% #130 5.7% #281
Possession Length 18.0 #250 17.6 #238
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #156 0.21 #292
Improvement -0.9 #245 -0.6 #231

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.5% 4.4% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.3 13.5
.500 or above 98.6% 99.8% 97.9%
.500 or above in Conference 75.9% 89.2% 67.9%
Conference Champion 3.5% 6.2% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round3.5% 4.4% 2.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio (Away) - 37.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 32 - 4
Quad 34 - 55 - 8
Quad 413 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 203 Southern Miss W 85-79 66%     -2.8   1 - 0 +0.3 +15.0 -14.2
  Fri, Nov 7 248 Green Bay W 83-76 74%     2.6   2 - 0 -1.1 +11.2 -11.7
  Tue, Nov 11 104 @DePaul W 66-53 19%     12.2   3 - 0 +20.8 +1.1 +20.1
  Tue, Nov 18 183 Vermont W 94-90 62%     0.4   4 - 0 -0.5 +12.3 -13.0
  Mon, Nov 24 335 VMI W 78-70 81%     1.3   5 - 0 -2.8 +2.7 -5.1
  Wed, Nov 26 314 Bucknell W 73-71 76%     10.1   6 - 0 -6.7 +9.7 -16.1
  Sat, Nov 29 337 @Canisius W 71-53 75%     8.0   7 - 0 +9.7 +1.5 +9.7
  Sat, Dec 6 115 St. Bonaventure L 69-77 43%     -6.8   7 - 1 -7.5 -1.4 -6.5
  Tue, Dec 9 265 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 83-79 56%     -0.9   8 - 1 +1.0 +12.6 -11.4
  Sun, Dec 14 272 @East Carolina L 70-73 57%     8.2   8 - 2 -6.2 -0.5 -5.8
  Sat, Dec 20 273 @Western Michigan W 88-71 57%     9.9   9 - 2 1 - 0 +13.8 +18.4 -3.5
  Wed, Dec 31 322 @Northern Illinois W 81-67 70%     7.1   10 - 2 2 - 0 +7.3 +6.7 +0.9
  Sat, Jan 3 305 Ball St. W 85-72 82%     14.3   11 - 2 3 - 0 +1.9 +14.6 -11.6
  Sat, Jan 10 174 @Ohio L 75-78 38%    
  Tue, Jan 13 141 Kent St. W 81-80 52%    
  Sat, Jan 17 96 @Miami (OH) L 74-84 18%    
  Tue, Jan 20 64 Akron L 80-87 26%    
  Sat, Jan 24 170 Massachusetts W 79-76 59%    
  Tue, Jan 27 128 @Bowling Green L 72-79 27%    
  Sat, Jan 31 174 Ohio W 78-75 60%    
  Tue, Feb 3 96 Miami (OH) L 77-81 36%    
  Wed, Feb 11 305 @Ball St. W 74-70 63%    
  Tue, Feb 17 322 Northern Illinois W 82-71 85%    
  Sat, Feb 21 170 @Massachusetts L 76-79 37%    
  Tue, Feb 24 64 @Akron L 77-90 12%    
  Sat, Feb 28 328 Central Michigan W 80-68 86%    
  Tue, Mar 3 220 Eastern Michigan W 75-70 68%    
  Fri, Mar 6 182 @Toledo L 78-81 40%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 3.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.0 5.1 3.3 0.4 0.0 11.0 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 7.4 4.7 0.8 0.0 15.4 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 7.8 6.2 1.0 0.0 17.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 6.4 6.2 1.2 0.0 15.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 5.0 5.6 1.2 0.0 12.8 7th
8th 0.4 2.8 4.5 1.5 0.1 9.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 2.8 1.4 0.1 5.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.6 0.1 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.2 7.1 12.5 15.9 17.7 17.0 12.2 7.6 3.5 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 98.1% 0.4    0.3 0.0
15-3 78.4% 1.2    0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 38.6% 1.4    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1
13-5 6.0% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 28.0% 28.0% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.4% 19.6% 19.6% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.5% 12.4% 12.4% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3
14-4 3.5% 9.8% 9.8% 12.8 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.2
13-5 7.6% 7.1% 7.1% 13.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 7.0
12-6 12.2% 5.5% 5.5% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 11.5
11-7 17.0% 4.2% 4.2% 13.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 16.3
10-8 17.7% 3.0% 3.0% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 17.2
9-9 15.9% 1.7% 1.7% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 15.7
8-10 12.5% 0.7% 0.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.4
7-11 7.1% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 7.1
6-12 3.2% 3.2
5-13 1.1% 1.1
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 96.5 0.0%