Toledo
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#203
Expected Predictive Rating+2.3#132
Pace72.5#84
Improvement-4.7#361

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#122
First Shot+1.0#147
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#124
Layup/Dunks+3.1#81
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#23
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#321
Freethrows-1.1#250
Improvement-2.2#328

Defense
Total Defense-3.9#300
First Shot-1.8#232
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#309
Layups/Dunks-3.0#283
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#288
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#216
Freethrows+3.5#19
Improvement-2.5#346
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.9% 9.6% 6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.4
.500 or above 65.2% 77.4% 55.3%
.500 or above in Conference 71.1% 76.4% 66.7%
Conference Champion 8.3% 10.3% 6.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 1.3% 2.7%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round7.8% 9.6% 6.3%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Youngstown St. (Away) - 45.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 35 - 65 - 10
Quad 411 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 125   @ Troy L 74-84 25%     0 - 1 -4.9 -0.6 -3.7
  Nov 09, 2024 195   @ Marshall W 90-80 37%     1 - 1 +11.5 +11.2 -0.5
  Nov 13, 2024 136   Wright St. W 86-77 49%     2 - 1 +7.4 +7.4 -0.2
  Nov 16, 2024 298   @ Detroit Mercy W 82-67 59%     3 - 1 +10.8 +4.5 +5.8
  Nov 21, 2024 329   Stetson W 103-78 77%     4 - 1 +15.4 +19.2 -5.0
  Nov 22, 2024 174   Jacksonville St. W 82-80 46%     5 - 1 +1.2 +12.8 -11.5
  Nov 23, 2024 102   UC San Diego L 45-80 27%     5 - 2 -30.4 -24.6 -7.1
  Nov 30, 2024 144   Oakland L 52-85 50%     5 - 3 -35.0 -15.8 -22.7
  Dec 14, 2024 229   @ Youngstown St. L 74-75 45%    
  Dec 18, 2024 6   @ Houston L 60-83 1%    
  Dec 29, 2024 21   @ Purdue L 67-86 3%    
  Jan 04, 2025 271   @ Western Michigan W 78-77 53%    
  Jan 07, 2025 299   Eastern Michigan W 78-70 78%    
  Jan 11, 2025 196   Central Michigan W 77-74 59%    
  Jan 14, 2025 131   @ Akron L 78-84 28%    
  Jan 18, 2025 270   @ Ball St. W 75-74 54%    
  Jan 21, 2025 110   Kent St. L 69-71 41%    
  Jan 24, 2025 267   @ Bowling Green W 78-77 53%    
  Jan 28, 2025 157   @ Ohio L 78-83 32%    
  Feb 01, 2025 338   Northern Illinois W 83-71 85%    
  Feb 04, 2025 331   Buffalo W 85-74 83%    
  Feb 11, 2025 198   @ Miami (OH) L 74-77 39%    
  Feb 15, 2025 299   @ Eastern Michigan W 75-73 58%    
  Feb 18, 2025 270   Ball St. W 78-71 73%    
  Feb 22, 2025 267   Bowling Green W 81-74 73%    
  Feb 25, 2025 110   @ Kent St. L 66-74 23%    
  Mar 01, 2025 331   @ Buffalo W 82-77 66%    
  Mar 04, 2025 131   Akron L 80-81 48%    
  Mar 07, 2025 157   Ohio W 81-80 52%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.7 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 8.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.0 4.4 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 11.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.8 5.3 2.5 0.3 0.0 12.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.9 5.6 2.6 0.3 12.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.0 6.1 2.8 0.3 0.0 12.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.3 5.7 3.4 0.4 0.0 11.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 4.6 3.3 0.5 0.0 10.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 3.5 3.0 0.5 0.0 7.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.3 0.5 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.1 5.2 7.8 10.6 13.2 14.5 13.2 11.5 8.6 5.6 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 98.7% 0.3    0.3
16-2 95.6% 1.1    1.0 0.1 0.0
15-3 79.5% 2.3    1.6 0.7 0.1
14-4 49.3% 2.7    1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0
13-5 16.6% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.3% 8.3 4.5 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 64.0% 64.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 36.1% 36.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
16-2 1.2% 28.8% 28.8% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.8
15-3 2.9% 23.7% 23.7% 13.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.2
14-4 5.6% 20.4% 20.4% 13.6 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 4.4
13-5 8.6% 14.8% 14.8% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 7.3
12-6 11.5% 12.1% 12.1% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.0 10.1
11-7 13.2% 8.6% 8.6% 14.6 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 12.1
10-8 14.5% 6.0% 6.0% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 13.7
9-9 13.2% 4.7% 4.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 12.6
8-10 10.6% 2.4% 2.4% 15.7 0.1 0.2 10.4
7-11 7.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 7.8
6-12 5.2% 5.2
5-13 3.1% 3.1
4-14 1.4% 1.4
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.6 2.6 0.7 92.1 0.0%