Toledo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.2#171
Expected Predictive Rating-0.2#171
Pace70.0#172
Improvement+2.0#49

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#103
First Shot+3.8#76
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#241
Layup/Dunks+3.3#70
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#120
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#145
Freethrows-1.5#273
Improvement+0.1#173

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#317
First Shot-2.6#269
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#282
Layups/Dunks-3.6#300
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#61
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#331
Freethrows+4.1#10
Improvement+1.8#38
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 5.5% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.3 13.9
.500 or above 54.4% 72.2% 46.9%
.500 or above in Conference 58.1% 66.6% 54.5%
Conference Champion 2.0% 2.9% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 3.9% 2.2% 4.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round3.9% 5.5% 3.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oakland (Away) - 29.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 66 - 10
Quad 48 - 414 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 179 South Alabama L 74-76 62%     0 - 1 -6.4 +5.7 -12.3
  Sat, Nov 8 181 Marshall L 73-85 63%     0 - 2 -16.6 -2.6 -13.9
  Tue, Nov 11 155 @Wright St. W 81-71 35%     1 - 2 +12.7 +14.3 -1.1
  Sat, Nov 15 329 Detroit Mercy W 90-83 85%     2 - 2 -5.3 +3.9 -9.8
  Wed, Nov 19 176 Youngstown St. W 92-75 62%     3 - 2 +12.7 +12.4 -0.7
  Mon, Nov 24 135 Troy W 75-68 39%     4 - 2 +8.8 +5.0 +3.9
  Wed, Nov 26 94 Belmont L 72-87 26%     4 - 3 -9.3 +1.9 -11.0
  Sat, Dec 6 138 @Oakland L 80-86 30%    
  Sat, Dec 13 192 @Robert Morris L 74-76 42%    
  Tue, Dec 16 12 @Michigan St. L 63-85 2%    
  Tue, Dec 30 246 Western Michigan W 82-75 73%    
  Sat, Jan 3 304 @Central Michigan W 78-74 63%    
  Tue, Jan 6 282 @Northern Illinois W 79-77 58%    
  Fri, Jan 9 122 Miami (OH) L 80-81 46%    
  Tue, Jan 13 209 Ohio W 83-78 67%    
  Sat, Jan 17 124 @Kent St. L 80-87 27%    
  Tue, Jan 20 177 @Massachusetts L 78-81 40%    
  Sat, Jan 24 141 Bowling Green W 76-75 51%    
  Tue, Jan 27 59 @Akron L 78-92 11%    
  Sat, Jan 31 288 Ball St. W 80-71 78%    
  Tue, Feb 3 124 Kent St. L 83-84 46%    
  Wed, Feb 11 246 @Western Michigan W 79-78 52%    
  Sat, Feb 14 141 @Bowling Green L 73-78 32%    
  Sat, Feb 21 202 Eastern Michigan W 76-72 65%    
  Tue, Feb 24 282 Northern Illinois W 82-74 77%    
  Sat, Feb 28 209 @Ohio L 80-81 47%    
  Fri, Mar 6 227 Buffalo W 82-76 69%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 9 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.9 1.8 0.5 0.1 7.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.4 4.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 10.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.7 5.2 2.0 0.2 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.2 5.9 2.4 0.2 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 6.2 2.8 0.2 0.0 11.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.3 3.8 0.4 0.0 10.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.6 4.4 0.7 0.0 9.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.1 1.1 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 3.6 1.6 0.1 6.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 1.9 0.2 0.0 5.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.7 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.7 5.0 8.3 10.7 13.5 14.5 13.6 11.8 8.9 5.2 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 81.7% 0.2    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-3 49.3% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 24.9% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.2% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.3% 23.2% 23.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 1.0% 19.7% 19.7% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8
14-4 2.8% 16.9% 16.9% 12.9 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.3
13-5 5.2% 12.5% 12.5% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.6
12-6 8.9% 8.4% 8.4% 13.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 8.2
11-7 11.8% 5.8% 5.8% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 11.1
10-8 13.6% 4.4% 4.4% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 13.0
9-9 14.5% 2.3% 2.3% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 14.2
8-10 13.5% 1.1% 1.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.4
7-11 10.7% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 10.6
6-12 8.3% 8.3
5-13 5.0% 5.0
4-14 2.7% 2.7
3-15 1.3% 1.3
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.1 96.1 0.0%