Toledo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.6 #165
Expected Predictive Rating -0.8 #179
Pace 70.3 #140
Improvement +0.1 #178

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #107 C+ C B- C D+
Defense #274 D- C B- A- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #122 1.14 #199 +0.8 #151
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #47 0.89 #34 +4.8 #15
Three Pointers 31% #347 1.12 #51 -3.4 #300
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #121 +2.1 #119
Freethrows 0.29 #220 77% #38 0.23 #156
Second Chance 31.1% #161 0.99 #248 0.31 #200
Turnovers 14.8% #79
Total Offense +2.5 #107

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #88 1.25 #292 -4.0 #309
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #337 0.85 #309 +1.5 #77
Three Pointers 43% #112 1.13 #322 -3.6 #317
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #343 -6.1 #343
Freethrows 0.22 #13 70% #63 0.16 #13
Second Chance 33.4% #297 0.98 #97 0.33 #210
Turnovers 17.9% #84
Total Defense -3.1 #274

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.6% #294 2.0% #341
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.9% #82 9.8% #334
Possession Length 16.6 #102 17.4 #198
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #56 0.21 #303
Improvement -0.4 #205 +0.5 #161

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.6% 5.5% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.3 14.1
.500 or above 58.3% 82.7% 55.2%
.500 or above in Conference 87.7% 97.7% 86.4%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.9% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round3.6% 5.5% 3.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Akron (Away) - 11.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 65 - 13
Quad 410 - 315 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 190 South Alabama L 74 - 76 67% -9  0 - 1 -7 +7 A+ F+ C -14 F D- B+
 Sat, Nov 8 163 Marshall L 73 - 85 60% +1  0 - 2 -15 -3 C D D- -12 F A+ B
 Tue, Nov 11 150 @Wright St. W 81 - 71 34% +4  1 - 2 +14 +13 B+ A+ F +2 F+ C- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 287 Detroit Mercy W 90 - 83 82% +4  2 - 2 -3 +4 B+ D+ F -7 D- C C
 Wed, Nov 19 221 Youngstown St. W 92 - 75 72% +8  3 - 2 +10 +11 A- B- C+ -1 D+ F+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 113 Troy W 75 - 68 35% +2  4 - 2 +10 +4 C C C+ +6 B+ A+ C
 Wed, Nov 26 75 Belmont L 72 - 87 22% -3  4 - 3 -7 +0 B- D+ C+ -7 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 137 @Oakland L 97 - 98 31% +1  4 - 4 +3 +12 B- B+ C -8 D+ D F
 Sat, Dec 13 208 @Robert Morris L 70 - 75 47% +6  4 - 5 -5 -3 F D- A+ -2 C A+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 5 @Michigan St. L 69 - 92 2% -20  4 - 6 +1 +10 C C A+ -9 F+ C B+
 Tue, Dec 30 257 Western Michigan W 84 - 79 77% -3  5 - 6 1 - 0 -3 +4 D- B C- -7 C D- A-
 Sat, Jan 3 327 @Central Michigan W 78 - 75 74% -5  6 - 6 2 - 0 -4 +2 D- F A+ -6 F+ B- F+
 Tue, Jan 6 319 @Northern Illinois W 75 - 61 73% +11  7 - 6 3 - 0 +7 -0 C+ F D+ +7 D+ B- A+
 Fri, Jan 9 89 Miami (OH) L 73 - 87 35% -17  7 - 7 3 - 1 -11 -0 C- D B- -11 F+ D+ C
 Tue, Jan 13 209 Ohio W 101 - 85 70% +4  8 - 7 4 - 1 +10 +25 A+ A+ B+ -15 D- F C
 Fri, Jan 16 146 @Kent St. L 84 - 87 34% +0  8 - 8 4 - 2 +1 +9 C B C- -8 D C F
 Tue, Jan 20 174 @Massachusetts L 82 - 84 41% -2  8 - 9 4 - 3 -0 +11 A- C- F -11 F D- C
 Sat, Jan 24 129 Bowling Green W 73 - 72 52% -1  9 - 9 5 - 3 -0 +3 D+ B A+ -3 F A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 27 60 @Akron L 79 - 92 11%
 Sat, Jan 31 297 Ball St. W 78 - 68 83%
 Tue, Feb 3 146 Kent St. W 85 - 83 56%
 Sat, Feb 7 212 @James Madison L 77 - 78 48%
 Wed, Feb 11 257 @Western Michigan W 80 - 78 56%
 Sat, Feb 14 129 @Bowling Green L 75 - 80 31%
 Sat, Feb 21 200 Eastern Michigan W 76 - 71 68%
 Tue, Feb 24 319 Northern Illinois W 82 - 70 87%
 Sat, Feb 28 209 @Ohio L 80 - 81 48%
 Tue, Mar 3 89 @Miami (OH) L 78 - 88 18%
 Fri, Mar 6 203 Buffalo W 82 - 77 69%
Totals 15 - 14 10 - 8 -1 +3 C+ C B- -3 D- C B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 5.2 9.1 4.3 0.7 0.0 20.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 7.6 13.5 4.9 0.4 27.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 6.5 12.6 4.6 0.2 24.3 5th
6th 0.0 2.1 8.1 3.4 0.2 13.8 6th
7th 0.4 4.3 2.8 0.2 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 2.1 0.2 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.6 2.7 9.1 18.4 24.6 23.5 14.4 5.5 1.2 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 45.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 5.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 9.1% 9.1% 12.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 1.2% 9.3% 9.3% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1
13-5 5.5% 7.1% 7.1% 12.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.1
12-6 14.4% 6.4% 6.4% 13.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 13.5
11-7 23.5% 4.2% 4.2% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 22.5
10-8 24.6% 2.9% 2.9% 14.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 23.9
9-9 18.4% 2.0% 2.0% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 18.1
8-10 9.1% 1.3% 1.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 9.0
7-11 2.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.7
6-12 0.6% 0.6
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 13.9 96.4 0.0%