Toledo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#163
Expected Predictive Rating-0.5#177
Pace70.4#161
Improvement+1.7#64

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#88
First Shot+5.1#52
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#289
Layup/Dunks+4.0#58
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#30
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#207
Freethrows-1.4#268
Improvement+0.2#160

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#304
First Shot-3.0#277
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#249
Layups/Dunks-5.1#338
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#43
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#317
Freethrows+4.2#11
Improvement+1.5#73
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.2% 5.1% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.3 13.7
.500 or above 58.9% 72.8% 48.2%
.500 or above in Conference 66.2% 72.0% 61.8%
Conference Champion 2.1% 2.8% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 1.1% 2.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round4.1% 5.1% 3.4%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Robert Morris (Away) - 43.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 66 - 11
Quad 48 - 315 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 172 South Alabama L 74-76 63%     0 - 1 -5.8 +5.7 -11.7
  Sat, Nov 8 154 Marshall L 73-85 60%     0 - 2 -14.9 -2.0 -12.7
  Tue, Nov 11 142 @Wright St. W 81-71 33%     1 - 2 +14.1 +15.4 -0.8
  Sat, Nov 15 298 Detroit Mercy W 90-83 83%     2 - 2 -3.5 +4.6 -8.7
  Wed, Nov 19 166 Youngstown St. W 92-75 62%     3 - 2 +13.5 +13.7 -1.2
  Mon, Nov 24 147 Troy W 75-68 46%     4 - 2 +7.6 +4.7 +3.0
  Wed, Nov 26 79 Belmont L 72-87 23%     4 - 3 -7.7 +2.2 -9.6
  Sat, Dec 6 144 @Oakland L 97-98 34%     4 - 4 +3.0 +11.5 -8.3
  Sat, Dec 13 184 @Robert Morris L 75-77 44%    
  Tue, Dec 16 13 @Michigan St. L 63-85 2%    
  Tue, Dec 30 244 Western Michigan W 83-76 76%    
  Sat, Jan 3 318 @Central Michigan W 80-75 69%    
  Tue, Jan 6 332 @Northern Illinois W 83-76 74%    
  Fri, Jan 9 108 Miami (OH) L 81-82 46%    
  Tue, Jan 13 182 Ohio W 84-80 65%    
  Sat, Jan 17 119 @Kent St. L 82-88 29%    
  Tue, Jan 20 167 @Massachusetts L 79-82 40%    
  Sat, Jan 24 131 Bowling Green W 78-77 52%    
  Tue, Jan 27 54 @Akron L 79-93 11%    
  Sat, Jan 31 309 Ball St. W 79-68 84%    
  Tue, Feb 3 119 Kent St. L 85-86 49%    
  Wed, Feb 11 244 @Western Michigan W 80-79 55%    
  Sat, Feb 14 131 @Bowling Green L 74-80 31%    
  Sat, Feb 21 225 Eastern Michigan W 78-72 72%    
  Tue, Feb 24 332 Northern Illinois W 86-73 88%    
  Sat, Feb 28 182 @Ohio L 81-83 44%    
  Fri, Mar 6 209 Buffalo W 82-76 70%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 10 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 2.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.3 2.2 0.7 0.1 8.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.1 5.2 2.7 0.4 0.0 11.8 3rd
4th 0.4 3.3 6.3 3.1 0.4 13.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.8 6.5 3.6 0.4 0.0 13.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 6.2 4.2 0.5 0.0 12.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.2 4.4 0.7 0.0 11.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.3 4.1 0.9 0.0 8.9 8th
9th 0.2 1.9 3.7 1.2 0.0 7.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.4 1.2 0.1 4.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.9 0.1 3.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.3 5.8 9.6 12.6 14.7 15.2 13.8 10.7 6.8 3.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
16-2 80.1% 0.4    0.3 0.1
15-3 49.0% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.0
14-4 19.9% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 5.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.1% 2.1 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.5% 22.1% 22.1% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
15-3 1.4% 20.3% 20.3% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1
14-4 3.3% 12.7% 12.7% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.8
13-5 6.8% 10.2% 10.2% 12.9 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.1
12-6 10.7% 7.8% 7.8% 13.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 9.8
11-7 13.8% 5.2% 5.2% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 13.1
10-8 15.2% 3.8% 3.8% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 14.6
9-9 14.7% 2.5% 2.5% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 14.4
8-10 12.6% 1.0% 1.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.5
7-11 9.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.6
6-12 5.8% 5.8
5-13 3.3% 3.3
4-14 1.6% 1.6
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 13.5 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.1 95.8 0.0%