Toledo
Mid-American
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.7#102
Expected Predictive Rating+3.2#130
Pace78.8#17
Improvement-0.1#164

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#28
First Shot+7.2#23
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#197
Layup/Dunks+2.2#99
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#28
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#151
Freethrows+0.7#130
Improvement+0.2#45

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#242
First Shot-3.7#284
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#89
Layups/Dunks-0.3#201
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#246
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#267
Freethrows-0.6#218
Improvement-0.3#317
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.4% 22.2% 16.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 1.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.9 12.6 13.3
.500 or above 98.1% 99.4% 96.6%
.500 or above in Conference 96.1% 97.4% 94.7%
Conference Champion 24.2% 28.1% 19.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
First Round19.1% 21.9% 15.9%
Second Round3.4% 4.2% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.2% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Mason (Away) - 53.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 1
Quad 21 - 12 - 2
Quad 36 - 47 - 6
Quad 414 - 321 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 276   Valparaiso W 85-70 89%     1 - 0 +6.2 +3.4 +1.9
  Nov 11, 2022 45   UAB W 93-85 30%     2 - 0 +18.1 +5.4 +11.2
  Nov 16, 2022 301   Oakland W 112-90 92%     3 - 0 +11.2 +17.5 -8.5
  Nov 21, 2022 281   UMKC L 71-83 84%     3 - 1 -18.1 -0.2 -18.5
  Nov 22, 2022 207   East Carolina L 75-86 74%     3 - 2 -12.9 +0.1 -12.9
  Nov 23, 2022 237   Northern Kentucky W 82-69 79%     4 - 2 +9.1 +9.9 -0.4
  Nov 30, 2022 100   Richmond W 90-67 61%     5 - 2 +24.9 +15.2 +8.6
  Dec 03, 2022 158   @ George Mason W 78-77 54%    
  Dec 06, 2022 174   @ Northern Iowa W 81-79 57%    
  Dec 10, 2022 293   Canisius W 88-73 92%    
  Dec 17, 2022 94   @ Marshall L 84-88 37%    
  Dec 20, 2022 196   @ Vermont W 78-75 61%    
  Jan 03, 2023 186   Ball St. W 87-78 78%    
  Jan 06, 2023 312   Western Michigan W 89-72 94%    
  Jan 10, 2023 54   @ Kent St. L 76-84 24%    
  Jan 14, 2023 266   @ Northern Illinois W 84-77 74%    
  Jan 17, 2023 157   Ohio W 84-77 74%    
  Jan 21, 2023 190   @ Buffalo W 89-86 60%    
  Jan 24, 2023 263   Eastern Michigan W 91-78 88%    
  Jan 28, 2023 271   Bowling Green W 91-78 89%    
  Jan 31, 2023 286   @ Miami (OH) W 89-81 77%    
  Feb 04, 2023 244   Central Michigan W 89-77 86%    
  Feb 07, 2023 137   @ Akron L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 11, 2023 263   @ Eastern Michigan W 88-81 73%    
  Feb 14, 2023 286   Miami (OH) W 92-78 89%    
  Feb 18, 2023 271   @ Bowling Green W 88-81 74%    
  Feb 21, 2023 137   Akron W 75-70 68%    
  Feb 25, 2023 190   Buffalo W 92-83 78%    
  Feb 28, 2023 244   @ Central Michigan W 86-80 70%    
  Mar 03, 2023 186   @ Ball St. W 84-81 58%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.0 6.8 7.2 4.0 0.9 24.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.1 9.6 11.1 7.1 2.3 0.2 35.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.6 7.0 5.0 1.6 0.1 17.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.4 2.3 0.5 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 2.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.2 3.9 6.7 10.2 13.7 16.4 16.7 14.0 9.4 4.2 0.9 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 95.1% 4.0    3.4 0.5
16-2 76.1% 7.2    4.9 2.2 0.0
15-3 48.4% 6.8    3.9 2.6 0.3
14-4 24.1% 4.0    1.5 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 7.4% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1
12-6 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.2% 24.2 14.9 7.8 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 68.0% 49.6% 18.5% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 36.6%
17-1 4.2% 46.9% 40.2% 6.6% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.2 11.1%
16-2 9.4% 34.1% 32.6% 1.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.2 2.2%
15-3 14.0% 26.7% 26.5% 0.2% 12.7 0.2 1.2 1.7 0.6 0.0 10.3 0.3%
14-4 16.7% 20.6% 20.6% 13.1 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.1 0.1 13.3
13-5 16.4% 16.7% 16.7% 13.5 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 13.6
12-6 13.7% 13.1% 13.1% 13.9 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 11.9
11-7 10.2% 10.3% 10.3% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 9.1
10-8 6.7% 7.1% 7.1% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 6.2
9-9 3.9% 6.2% 6.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.7
8-10 2.2% 2.5% 2.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1
7-11 1.0% 2.7% 2.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.9
6-12 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5
5-13 0.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.4% 18.8% 0.6% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.5 4.5 6.4 4.5 1.4 0.3 80.6 0.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 88.3% 7.1 5.4 17.1 19.8 9.0 8.1 19.8 3.6 5.4