Toledo
Mid-American
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.1#117
Expected Predictive Rating+8.4#74
Pace70.6#144
Improvement-0.1#186

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#61
First Shot+0.9#147
After Offensive Rebound+3.6#15
Layup/Dunks+1.4#125
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#165
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#317
Freethrows+4.3#5
Improvement+0.8#91

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#226
First Shot-0.6#195
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#236
Layups/Dunks-2.2#250
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#242
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#187
Freethrows+2.3#51
Improvement-1.0#273
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.5% 20.3% 11.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 2.8% 0.4%
Average Seed 12.9 12.2 13.0
.500 or above 90.4% 97.9% 89.6%
.500 or above in Conference 86.8% 93.2% 86.1%
Conference Champion 12.5% 20.3% 11.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
First Four0.5% 2.1% 0.3%
First Round12.2% 19.2% 11.4%
Second Round2.1% 5.3% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Michigan St. (Away) - 9.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 32 - 6
Quad 37 - 48 - 9
Quad 412 - 220 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 204   @ Valparaiso W 69-61 58%     1 - 0 +9.1 +1.2 +8.3
  Nov 13, 2021 231   Detroit Mercy W 81-73 81%     2 - 0 +1.6 +1.8 +0.0
  Nov 17, 2021 124   @ Oakland L 59-80 40%     2 - 1 -15.2 -11.5 -3.0
  Nov 22, 2021 223   Charlotte W 98-86 71%     3 - 1 +9.3 +25.2 -15.7
  Nov 23, 2021 168   Tulane W 68-67 62%     4 - 1 +0.9 -5.3 +6.2
  Nov 24, 2021 227   Coastal Carolina W 79-70 72%     5 - 1 +6.1 +6.2 +0.0
  Dec 04, 2021 22   @ Michigan St. L 66-80 10%    
  Dec 07, 2021 213   Bradley W 75-67 78%    
  Dec 11, 2021 83   @ Richmond L 74-81 27%    
  Dec 21, 2021 114   Marshall W 85-82 61%    
  Dec 29, 2021 296   Western Michigan W 81-68 89%    
  Jan 01, 2022 137   @ Kent St. L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 04, 2022 304   @ Central Michigan W 83-75 77%    
  Jan 08, 2022 312   Northern Illinois W 77-63 90%    
  Jan 11, 2022 136   @ Miami (OH) L 74-76 43%    
  Jan 15, 2022 224   @ Bowling Green W 80-77 61%    
  Jan 18, 2022 214   Ball St. W 83-75 77%    
  Jan 22, 2022 76   @ Ohio L 74-81 29%    
  Jan 25, 2022 72   Buffalo L 82-83 48%    
  Jan 28, 2022 165   Akron W 74-68 71%    
  Feb 01, 2022 260   @ Eastern Michigan W 80-74 69%    
  Feb 05, 2022 214   @ Ball St. W 80-78 58%    
  Feb 08, 2022 76   Ohio L 77-78 47%    
  Feb 12, 2022 312   @ Northern Illinois W 74-66 77%    
  Feb 15, 2022 137   Kent St. W 75-71 64%    
  Feb 19, 2022 304   Central Michigan W 86-72 89%    
  Feb 22, 2022 296   @ Western Michigan W 78-71 74%    
  Feb 26, 2022 136   Miami (OH) W 77-73 64%    
  Mar 01, 2022 72   @ Buffalo L 79-86 28%    
  Mar 04, 2022 224   Bowling Green W 83-74 78%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 13 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.8 3.2 3.7 2.4 0.8 0.1 12.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 3.5 5.9 4.2 1.5 0.1 16.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.5 6.8 3.5 1.0 0.0 18.5 3rd
4th 0.3 1.8 5.0 5.9 2.5 0.3 0.0 15.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.9 4.7 4.4 1.9 0.1 13.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.5 3.1 1.0 0.1 9.7 6th
7th 0.2 1.5 2.4 2.0 0.7 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.8 3.9 5.7 8.0 10.5 12.2 14.4 13.3 11.5 8.4 5.2 2.5 0.8 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
18-2 94.9% 2.4    2.0 0.4 0.0
17-3 71.8% 3.7    2.5 1.1 0.1
16-4 37.9% 3.2    1.1 1.6 0.5 0.0
15-5 15.8% 1.8    0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1
14-6 3.2% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.5% 12.5 7.1 4.1 1.1 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 42.6% 22.2% 20.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 26.2%
19-1 0.8% 70.4% 62.0% 8.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 22.0%
18-2 2.5% 40.8% 33.9% 6.8% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.5 10.3%
17-3 5.2% 33.4% 30.1% 3.3% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.1 3.5 4.7%
16-4 8.4% 22.6% 21.6% 1.0% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.5 1.2%
15-5 11.5% 18.1% 18.1% 0.0% 12.9 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 9.4 0.0%
14-6 13.3% 12.9% 12.9% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 11.6 0.0%
13-7 14.4% 11.2% 11.2% 13.6 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 12.8
12-8 12.2% 7.1% 7.1% 13.7 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 11.3
11-9 10.5% 4.4% 4.4% 14.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 10.1
10-10 8.0% 3.8% 3.8% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.6
9-11 5.7% 2.4% 2.4% 15.2 0.1 0.0 5.5
8-12 3.9% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 3.9
7-13 1.8% 1.8
6-14 0.9% 0.9
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 12.5% 12.0% 0.5% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.5 4.0 2.7 1.0 0.1 87.5 0.6%