Akron
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.9#54
Expected Predictive Rating+7.2#84
Pace76.4#41
Improvement+0.4#144

Offense
Total Offense+8.9#20
First Shot+5.0#52
After Offensive Rebound+3.9#20
Layup/Dunks+3.0#80
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#204
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#58
Freethrows-1.6#267
Improvement+1.9#44

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#135
First Shot+1.2#127
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#202
Layups/Dunks-2.3#269
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#84
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#173
Freethrows+1.8#77
Improvement-1.5#306
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.5% 2.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 51.6% 51.9% 43.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.4% 1.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.2 11.2 12.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.1%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.8% 99.0%
Conference Champion 75.1% 75.3% 66.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
First Round51.4% 51.6% 43.5%
Second Round16.6% 16.8% 9.4%
Sweet Sixteen5.0% 5.0% 2.1%
Elite Eight1.2% 1.2% 0.8%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bucknell (Home) - 97.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 22 - 22 - 3
Quad 38 - 210 - 5
Quad 415 - 125 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 159 James Madison W 85-71 89%     1 - 0 +10.7 +4.8 +5.6
  Sat, Nov 8 235 Princeton W 104-69 94%     2 - 0 +27.6 +19.0 +5.4
  Sun, Nov 16 2 @Purdue L 79-97 8%     2 - 1 +7.2 +12.3 -4.5
  Fri, Nov 21 149 Iona W 96-75 81%     3 - 1 +21.6 +13.9 +5.7
  Sun, Nov 23 291 Evansville W 97-59 94%     4 - 1 +30.8 +22.1 +8.8
  Mon, Nov 24 72 Yale L 94-97 59%     4 - 2 +4.6 +25.5 -21.1
  Sat, Nov 29 218 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 105-81 93%     5 - 2 +17.6 +17.3 -2.2
  Wed, Dec 3 307 Bucknell W 91-70 97%    
  Sat, Dec 6 169 @Tulane W 87-79 77%    
  Sat, Dec 13 110 Murray St. W 91-85 71%    
  Fri, Dec 19 200 Eastern Michigan W 85-70 92%    
  Sat, Jan 3 126 @Miami (OH) W 87-83 65%    
  Tue, Jan 6 310 Central Michigan W 91-70 97%    
  Sat, Jan 10 117 @Bowling Green W 82-78 63%    
  Tue, Jan 13 305 Ball St. W 88-67 97%    
  Sat, Jan 17 275 Western Michigan W 91-72 96%    
  Tue, Jan 20 210 @Buffalo W 87-77 82%    
  Sat, Jan 24 211 @Ohio W 90-80 81%    
  Tue, Jan 27 170 Toledo W 92-78 89%    
  Fri, Jan 30 124 Kent St. W 93-83 81%    
  Tue, Feb 3 200 @Eastern Michigan W 82-73 80%    
  Sat, Feb 14 183 Massachusetts W 91-77 90%    
  Tue, Feb 17 275 @Western Michigan W 88-75 88%    
  Sat, Feb 21 305 @Ball St. W 85-70 90%    
  Tue, Feb 24 210 Buffalo W 90-74 92%    
  Sat, Feb 28 124 @Kent St. W 90-86 64%    
  Tue, Mar 3 310 @Central Michigan W 88-73 90%    
  Fri, Mar 6 329 Northern Illinois W 94-71 98%    
Projected Record 23 - 5 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.7 6.6 15.3 21.3 19.9 10.0 75.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 4.0 5.8 3.9 1.1 0.0 15.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 1.9 2.1 0.7 0.1 5.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 4.2 8.0 13.1 19.2 22.4 20.0 10.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 10.0    10.0
17-1 99.8% 19.9    19.4 0.5
16-2 95.1% 21.3    18.7 2.6 0.0
15-3 79.6% 15.3    10.7 4.3 0.3
14-4 50.4% 6.6    3.0 2.8 0.8 0.1
13-5 21.2% 1.7    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 75.1% 75.1 62.1 11.0 1.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 10.0% 74.2% 70.0% 4.2% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 2.6 13.9%
17-1 20.0% 64.0% 62.9% 1.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 7.5 3.8 0.2 7.2 3.0%
16-2 22.4% 56.1% 55.9% 0.2% 11.7 0.0 0.1 4.5 7.2 0.7 0.0 9.9 0.4%
15-3 19.2% 47.4% 47.3% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 1.6 6.2 1.2 0.1 10.1 0.1%
14-4 13.1% 41.1% 41.1% 12.2 0.4 3.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 7.7
13-5 8.0% 32.3% 32.3% 12.5 0.1 1.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.4
12-6 4.2% 28.0% 28.0% 12.8 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.0
11-7 1.8% 22.3% 22.3% 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4
10-8 0.8% 18.1% 18.1% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7
9-9 0.3% 11.7% 11.7% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
8-10 0.1% 15.8% 15.8% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 51.6% 51.0% 0.7% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.9 16.0 22.7 5.6 0.7 0.1 48.4 1.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.9% 100.0% 6.9 0.4 1.1 3.2 12.2 15.0 18.4 13.6 8.2 10.2 8.4 8.7 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9% 21.2% 10.5 0.4 0.4 1.1 5.8 12.9 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 17.8% 10.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.4 2.9 11.1 1.0