Akron
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.5#66
Expected Predictive Rating+5.3#98
Pace76.9#30
Improvement-2.6#327

Offense
Total Offense+9.6#17
First Shot+5.9#41
After Offensive Rebound+3.7#17
Layup/Dunks+3.7#58
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#211
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#64
Freethrows-1.1#254
Improvement+0.2#161

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#206
First Shot-0.9#207
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#207
Layups/Dunks-0.4#184
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#140
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#305
Freethrows+2.5#46
Improvement-2.8#345
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 44.1% 44.8% 35.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.8 11.8 12.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.9% 98.7%
Conference Champion 71.0% 72.9% 47.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round44.0% 44.7% 35.5%
Second Round10.6% 10.9% 6.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.6% 2.7% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Home) - 92.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 38 - 29 - 6
Quad 415 - 124 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 195 James Madison W 85-71 89%     1 - 0 +8.8 +4.8 +3.7
  Sat, Nov 8 254 Princeton W 104-69 93%     2 - 0 +26.7 +19.2 +4.2
  Sun, Nov 16 7 @Purdue L 79-97 9%     2 - 1 +5.6 +12.3 -6.1
  Fri, Nov 21 171 Iona W 96-75 81%     3 - 1 +20.1 +13.8 +4.3
  Sun, Nov 23 268 Evansville W 97-59 90%     4 - 1 +32.2 +23.2 +9.1
  Mon, Nov 24 78 Yale L 94-97 54%     4 - 2 +4.4 +25.3 -21.1
  Sat, Nov 29 231 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 105-81 92%     5 - 2 +16.9 +17.5 -3.0
  Wed, Dec 3 305 Bucknell W 97-77 95%     6 - 2 +9.2 +22.4 -12.8
  Sat, Dec 6 199 @Tulane W 88-71 77%     7 - 2 +17.6 +12.5 +4.9
  Sat, Dec 13 96 Murray St. L 100-115 62%     7 - 3 -9.7 +12.1 -19.6
  Fri, Dec 19 227 Eastern Michigan W 88-73 93%    
  Sat, Jan 3 103 @Miami (OH) W 88-87 53%    
  Tue, Jan 6 326 Central Michigan W 93-72 98%    
  Sat, Jan 10 124 @Bowling Green W 84-81 61%    
  Tue, Jan 13 307 Ball St. W 88-68 97%    
  Sat, Jan 17 253 Western Michigan W 93-76 94%    
  Tue, Jan 20 210 @Buffalo W 89-80 79%    
  Sat, Jan 24 177 @Ohio W 91-84 73%    
  Tue, Jan 27 168 Toledo W 94-82 87%    
  Fri, Jan 30 129 Kent St. W 97-87 81%    
  Tue, Feb 3 227 @Eastern Michigan W 85-76 80%    
  Sat, Feb 14 155 Massachusetts W 93-82 85%    
  Tue, Feb 17 253 @Western Michigan W 90-79 83%    
  Sat, Feb 21 307 @Ball St. W 85-71 89%    
  Tue, Feb 24 210 Buffalo W 92-77 91%    
  Sat, Feb 28 129 @Kent St. W 94-90 63%    
  Tue, Mar 3 326 @Central Michigan W 90-75 91%    
  Fri, Mar 6 322 Northern Illinois W 96-75 97%    
Projected Record 22 - 6 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.3 8.9 17.4 20.9 15.4 5.9 71.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 5.1 6.4 3.1 0.6 0.0 17.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 2.6 2.5 0.7 0.1 6.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.8 5.8 10.2 16.0 20.6 21.5 15.4 5.9 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 5.9    5.9
17-1 99.9% 15.4    15.1 0.3
16-2 97.2% 20.9    18.7 2.1 0.0
15-3 84.5% 17.4    12.4 4.6 0.3 0.0
14-4 55.6% 8.9    4.1 3.8 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 22.6% 2.3    0.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 71.0% 71.0 56.8 11.8 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 5.9% 64.8% 62.8% 2.0% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.4 0.1 0.0 2.1 5.5%
17-1 15.4% 57.0% 56.9% 0.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.7 3.7 0.2 6.6 0.4%
16-2 21.5% 50.2% 50.2% 0.0% 11.9 0.0 2.5 7.3 0.9 0.0 10.7 0.0%
15-3 20.6% 43.9% 43.9% 12.2 0.6 6.2 2.1 0.1 11.6
14-4 16.0% 37.3% 37.3% 12.4 0.2 3.3 2.3 0.2 0.0 10.0
13-5 10.2% 32.1% 32.1% 12.7 0.0 1.3 1.6 0.3 0.0 6.9
12-6 5.8% 25.4% 25.4% 12.9 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.3
11-7 2.8% 22.9% 22.9% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.2
10-8 1.2% 18.6% 18.6% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0
9-9 0.5% 14.8% 14.8% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
8-10 0.1% 7.0% 7.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 44.1% 43.9% 0.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.9 9.4 22.4 8.4 1.2 0.1 55.9 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.7% 100.0% 9.2 0.1 1.1 4.7 7.7 9.0 8.7 13.6 17.6 34.2 3.2 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9% 6.4% 11.2 5.3 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9% 4.6% 10.9 0.4 4.2