Akron
Mid-American
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.6#114
Expected Predictive Rating+3.1#132
Pace66.5#254
Improvement-1.7#315

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#156
First Shot+3.4#84
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#311
Layup/Dunks+0.6#145
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#276
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#85
Freethrows+1.4#89
Improvement-2.0#341

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#96
First Shot-0.6#192
After Offensive Rebounds+3.3#12
Layups/Dunks-3.8#302
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#64
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#222
Freethrows+2.2#55
Improvement+0.4#139
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.7% 24.5% 19.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.0 12.7 13.4
.500 or above 90.5% 95.6% 86.0%
.500 or above in Conference 92.0% 94.3% 90.0%
Conference Champion 28.0% 32.9% 23.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 0.7%
First Round21.4% 24.4% 18.8%
Second Round4.2% 5.0% 3.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 0.9% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bradley (Home) - 47.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 36 - 47 - 9
Quad 411 - 218 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 145   @ South Dakota St. W 81-75 47%     1 - 0 +10.2 +9.6 +0.7
  Nov 10, 2023 203   Southern Miss W 72-54 79%     2 - 0 +13.0 -1.6 +15.0
  Nov 19, 2023 219   Florida International W 77-71 73%     3 - 0 +3.2 -0.3 +3.2
  Nov 20, 2023 57   Utah St. L 62-65 29%     3 - 1 +6.2 -2.9 +8.9
  Nov 21, 2023 84   Drake L 59-79 39%     3 - 2 -13.7 -6.2 -9.6
  Nov 28, 2023 128   @ UNLV L 70-72 42%     3 - 3 +3.6 -2.7 +6.3
  Dec 05, 2023 72   Bradley L 65-66 47%    
  Dec 09, 2023 206   @ Northern Kentucky W 68-65 60%    
  Dec 21, 2023 177   Gardner-Webb W 68-61 75%    
  Dec 30, 2023 108   St. Bonaventure L 67-68 49%    
  Jan 02, 2024 163   @ Northern Illinois W 76-75 52%    
  Jan 06, 2024 220   Bowling Green W 76-67 81%    
  Jan 09, 2024 271   @ Ball St. W 72-66 71%    
  Jan 13, 2024 312   Buffalo W 80-65 91%    
  Jan 16, 2024 283   Western Michigan W 74-61 89%    
  Jan 20, 2024 107   @ Kent St. L 68-72 38%    
  Jan 23, 2024 121   Ohio W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 27, 2024 275   @ Miami (OH) W 73-66 73%    
  Jan 30, 2024 291   @ Eastern Michigan W 73-65 76%    
  Feb 03, 2024 109   Toledo W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 06, 2024 313   Central Michigan W 76-61 91%    
  Feb 17, 2024 312   @ Buffalo W 77-68 78%    
  Feb 20, 2024 109   @ Toledo L 73-76 39%    
  Feb 24, 2024 107   Kent St. W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 27, 2024 121   @ Ohio L 72-74 43%    
  Mar 02, 2024 163   Northern Illinois W 78-72 71%    
  Mar 05, 2024 291   Eastern Michigan W 76-62 89%    
  Mar 08, 2024 283   @ Western Michigan W 71-64 72%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.4 6.2 9.0 6.8 2.9 0.5 28.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.1 7.7 6.9 2.1 0.2 20.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.5 7.2 4.2 1.1 0.0 16.3 3rd
4th 0.3 2.7 5.6 3.3 0.4 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.3 2.5 0.4 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 2.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.4 3.9 6.1 9.1 12.4 14.1 14.6 14.1 11.1 6.9 2.9 0.5 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 2.9    2.9 0.0
16-2 97.7% 6.8    6.2 0.6 0.0
15-3 81.2% 9.0    5.7 3.0 0.3
14-4 43.5% 6.2    2.6 2.7 0.8 0.1
13-5 16.2% 2.4    0.4 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 28.0% 28.0 18.4 7.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 81.3% 66.0% 15.2% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 44.8%
17-1 2.9% 58.9% 55.6% 3.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.2 7.5%
16-2 6.9% 44.3% 44.1% 0.2% 12.2 0.0 0.3 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.9 0.3%
15-3 11.1% 35.2% 35.2% 0.0% 12.6 0.1 1.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 7.2 0.1%
14-4 14.1% 28.8% 28.8% 13.0 0.1 0.9 2.2 0.9 0.0 10.1
13-5 14.6% 21.5% 21.5% 13.4 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.3 0.1 11.5
12-6 14.1% 18.0% 18.0% 13.6 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.0 11.6
11-7 12.4% 10.0% 10.0% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 11.1
10-8 9.1% 10.0% 10.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 8.2
9-9 6.1% 6.6% 6.6% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 5.7
8-10 3.9% 4.1% 4.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.8
7-11 2.4% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.3
6-12 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.1
5-13 0.4% 9.7% 9.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 21.7% 21.5% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 5.6 7.6 4.4 1.7 0.8 78.3 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 72.5% 5.4 1.3 2.5 26.3 16.3 11.3 5.0 1.3 2.5 3.8 2.5