Miami (OH)
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.9 #92
Expected Predictive Rating +17.7 #19
Pace 73.6 #60
Improvement +1.4 #122

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #65 B+ D B- B C+
Defense #147 C- B C+ C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #202 1.36 #16 +3.3 #74
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #259 0.81 #90 -1.0 #238
Three Pointers 46% #86 1.12 #47 +4.6 #42
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #25 +7.0 #25
Freethrows 0.33 #125 78% #16 0.25 #68
Second Chance 23.3% #346 1.06 #140 0.25 #319
Turnovers 15.5% #92
Total Offense +5.4 #65

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #248 1.23 #281 -0.1 #181
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #116 0.87 #334 -1.8 #316
Three Pointers 41% #166 1.03 #199 -0.4 #202
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #261 -2.4 #261
Freethrows 0.28 #110 76% #349 0.22 #169
Second Chance 29.1% #115 0.87 #17 0.25 #44
Turnovers 18.0% #116
Total Defense +0.5 #147

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #132 -0.7% #110
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 12.8% #22 5.3% #282
Possession Length 16.2 #75 17.0 #135
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #208 0.15 #95
Improvement +0.7 #142 +0.7 #140

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.7% 31.4% 27.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.5% 2.1% 0.7%
Average Seed 11.6 11.5 11.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 68.8% 70.5% 66.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.1% 1.4% 0.5%
First Round29.0% 30.5% 26.6%
Second Round4.1% 4.6% 3.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marshall (Away) - 60.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 23 - 03 - 1
Quad 39 - 212 - 2
Quad 415 - 028 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 259 Old Dominion W 87 - 72 91% -3  1 - 0 +6 +5 A- F C- +0 F A- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 350 @Air Force W 76 - 61 91% +10  2 - 0 +6 +5 A- F C +1 B- B D-
 Thu, Nov 20 300 Mercyhurst W 76 - 71 93% +5  3 - 0 -6 +4 C+ D- B- -10 F C B-
 Sun, Nov 23 322 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 111 - 84 95% +16  4 - 0 +14 +16 A+ F+ A- -6 A- F F
 Wed, Nov 26 311 UNC Greensboro W 82 - 71 91% -1  5 - 0 +2 -0 C F C- +2 C+ F+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 337 Maine W 93 - 61 96% +21  6 - 0 +18 +16 B A+ D +1 D+ D A+
 Wed, Dec 10 213 @UNC Asheville W 90 - 87 OT 71% +6  7 - 0 +3 +8 B F A+ -6 F+ B- D
 Sat, Dec 13 263 @Eastern Kentucky W 79 - 69 80% +9  8 - 0 +7 +5 C+ C+ B +3 C B+ B
 Tue, Dec 16 148 @Wright St. W 83 - 76 59% +8  9 - 0 +11 +8 A+ F B +2 B A D
 Sat, Dec 20 305 @Ball St. W 86 - 77 86% +3  10 - 0 1 - 0 +4 +12 B+ D C- -8 F A F
 Tue, Dec 30 147 @Bowling Green W 93 - 83 58% +13  11 - 0 2 - 0 +14 +16 A+ B+ C- -3 D+ C+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 63 Akron W 76 - 73 51% -1  12 - 0 3 - 0 +9 +2 F+ A D+ +6 A+ C A-
 Tue, Jan 6 280 Western Michigan W 87 - 76 92% +6  13 - 0 4 - 0 +1 +3 B C- F -2 C+ A- D
 Fri, Jan 9 161 @Toledo W 87 - 73 62% +17  14 - 0 5 - 0 +17 +14 A C A +3 B- A C
 Tue, Jan 13 292 Central Michigan W 100 - 61 93% +17  15 - 0 6 - 0 +29 +22 A+ B- B+ +7 C+ A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 196 Buffalo W 105 - 102 OT 85% -0  16 - 0 7 - 0 -2 +9 A+ F A- -12 F A C+
 Tue, Jan 20 139 @Kent St. W 107 - 101 OT 56% +6  17 - 0 8 - 0 +10 +20 A+ F A+ -10 D- D C
 Tue, Jan 27 176 Massachusetts W 86 - 84 83% -3  18 - 0 9 - 0 -2 +15 C- A+ A -17 F D- F+
 Sat, Jan 31 310 Northern Illinois W 85 - 61 94% +3  19 - 0 10 - 0 +12 +4 B- F A+ +7 D+ A+ C
 Tue, Feb 3 196 @Buffalo W 73 - 71 69% +4  20 - 0 11 - 0 +3 -1 A- F C- +3 D- A+ A
 Sat, Feb 7 156 @Marshall W 83 - 80 61%
 Sat, Feb 14 193 Ohio W 88 - 77 85%
 Tue, Feb 17 176 @Massachusetts W 85 - 81 65%
 Sat, Feb 21 147 Bowling Green W 83 - 75 77%
 Tue, Feb 24 230 @Eastern Michigan W 79 - 72 74%
 Sat, Feb 28 280 @Western Michigan W 86 - 76 82%
 Tue, Mar 3 161 Toledo W 87 - 78 80%
 Fri, Mar 6 193 @Ohio W 85 - 80 68%
Totals 26 - 2 16 - 2 +6 +5 B+ D B- +1 C- B C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 3.5 17.7 31.1 16.2 68.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 5.5 12.3 11.4 30.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 0.2 1.4 6.0 15.8 29.1 31.1 16.2 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 16.2    16.2
17-1 100.0% 31.1    19.1 12.0
16-2 60.8% 17.7    6.4 11.3
15-3 22.3% 3.5    0.7 2.5 0.4
14-4 3.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
13-5 0.7% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 68.8% 68.8 42.4 25.9 0.5



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 16.2% 42.2% 38.5% 3.7% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 4.6 1.7 0.0 9.4 6.0%
17-1 31.1% 32.6% 31.4% 1.2% 11.5 0.0 5.0 4.9 0.2 21.0 1.7%
16-2 29.1% 26.9% 26.6% 0.3% 11.7 2.4 5.1 0.3 21.3 0.4%
15-3 15.8% 23.4% 23.2% 0.2% 11.9 0.7 2.8 0.2 12.1 0.2%
14-4 6.0% 16.3% 16.3% 11.9 0.2 0.7 0.1 5.0
13-5 1.4% 11.9% 11.9% 12.3 0.1 0.1 1.3
12-6 0.2% 13.6% 13.6% 12.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 0.1% 0.1
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 29.7% 28.6% 1.1% 11.6 70.3 1.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.0% 100.0% 11.0 0.2 2.7 9.2 68.7 19.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.1% 10.9% 11.0 0.6 9.3 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.8% 4.9% 11.0 4.9