Miami (OH)
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +6.5 88
Results Rating +18.5 18
Consistency 0.11 10
Pace 73.5 53
Improvement +0.4 180

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 72 B+ D+ B- B- C+
Defense C+ 126 C- B C+ C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 196 A- 67% 19 +3.4 67
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 262 C+ 39% 130 -0.9 227
Three Pointers 44% 122 B- 36% 81 +3.3 73
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 141 B+ +5.3 32
1st FG Attempt B+ 1.14 39
Second Chance D- 23.3% 345 B+ 1.16 34 D+ 0.27 269
Opponents' Steals C+ 8.9% 127
Other Turnovers B 6.0% 49
Turnovers B- 15.0% 75
Freethrows B- 0.33 110 B- 75% 76 B- 0.25 87
Total Offense B- +4.8 72

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D- 37% 335 B 8.8% 62
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 11% 348 C 5.2% 198
Three Pointers B- 88% 93 C- 1.1% 248
Total D+ 50% 303 B- 4.8% 88


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 253 D+ 62% 288 +0.2 186
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 117 C- 39% 228 +0.9 257
Three Pointers 41% 164 C 34% 193 +0.3 197
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.3 111 C- +1.7 250
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 220
Second Chance C+ 29.0% 126 B+ 0.90 23 B 0.26 49
Turnovers from Steals C 9.5% 179
Other Turnovers B- 7.8% 104
Turnovers C+ 17.4% 137
Freethrows C+ 0.29 130 D 75% 300 C+ 0.21 154
Total Defense C+ +1.6 126

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 43% 70 D 7.7% 310
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 21% 93 C- 4.0% 226
Three Pointers C+ 81% 110 C+ 1.2% 112
Total B- 51% 82 D+ 4.2% 293

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.3 73 17.1 144
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 246 0.13 60
Consistency 0.10 14 0.09 10
Improvement -1.8 277 +2.1 82

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Longshot
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 99 88 74
Results Rating Rank 33 25 16
Conference Record 16 - 2 18 - 0 18 - 0
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 11
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 2nd Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41% 43% 33%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12% 13% 6%
Average Seed 11.4 11.3 11.5
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 96% 100% 76%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four8% 9% 5%
First Round36% 37% 30%
Second Round6% 6% 4%
Sweet Sixteen1% 1% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Toledo (Home) - 81.1% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 02 - 0
Quad 310 - 112 - 1
Quad 418 - 029 - 1


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 242 Old Dominion W 87 - 72 90% -3  34% 1 - 0 B- +8 C+ +2 A- F D+ B +4 F+ A A+
 Sat, Nov 15 344 @Air Force W 76 - 61 93% +10  99% 2 - 0 B- +5 C +1 B+ F D+ B +5 B B D-
 Thu, Nov 20 289 Mercyhurst W 76 - 71 93% +5  95% 3 - 0 D+ -5 C+ +2 C D- C+ D- -7 F C B+
 Sun, Nov 23 331 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 111 - 84 96% +16  88% 4 - 0 B+ +12 A +12 A+ F A D+ -3 A F F
 Wed, Nov 26 299 UNC Greensboro W 82 - 71 91% -1  37% 5 - 0 C+ +3 D+ -3 C F C B+ +5 B- F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 342 Maine W 93 - 61 97% +21  99% 6 - 0 A- +17 A +13 B A+ D- B- +3 C- F+ A+
 Wed, Dec 10 247 @UNC Asheville W 90 - 87 OT 78% +6  70% 7 - 0 C +1 B- +5 B F A+ D+ -4 F B D+
 Sat, Dec 13 288 @Eastern Kentucky W 79 - 69 84% +9  91% 8 - 0 B- +6 C +1 C+ C+ B B+ +5 C+ B A-
 Tue, Dec 16 159 @Wright St. W 83 - 76 64% +8  96% 9 - 0 B +10 B- +5 A+ F B- B +5 B A D-
 Sat, Dec 20 292 @Ball St. W 86 - 77 85% +3  67% 10 - 0 1 - 0 C+ +4 A +11 A- D D+ D- -7 F A+ F
 Tue, Dec 30 167 @Bowling Green W 93 - 83 65% +13  82% 11 - 0 2 - 0 B+ +12 A +14 A+ B+ F+ C- -2 D C C+
 Sat, Jan 3 69 Akron W 76 - 73 54% -1  34% 12 - 0 3 - 0 B +8 C- -1 F A D A +9 A C- A
 Tue, Jan 6 275 Western Michigan W 87 - 76 92% +6  90% 13 - 0 4 - 0 C+ +2 C +1 B- C F C+ +1 C A D+
 Fri, Jan 9 153 @Toledo W 87 - 73 63% +17  99% 14 - 0 5 - 0 A- +17 A- +11 A+ D+ A- B+ +6 B A C+
 Tue, Jan 13 259 Central Michigan W 100 - 61 91% +17  98% 15 - 0 6 - 0 A+ +30 A+ +20 A+ B A- A +11 B- A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 212 Buffalo W 105 - 102 OT 87% -0  44% 16 - 0 7 - 0 C- -3 B +7 A F A F -10 F A B-
 Tue, Jan 20 158 @Kent St. W 107 - 101 OT 64% +6  79% 17 - 0 8 - 0 B +9 A+ +16 A+ F A+ D- -8 D- D- C+
 Tue, Jan 27 202 Massachusetts W 86 - 84 86% -3  15% 18 - 0 9 - 0 C- -3 A- +11 C- A+ A- F -14 F F+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 336 Northern Illinois W 85 - 61 97% +3  49% 19 - 0 10 - 0 B +9 C +1 B- F A A- +7 D A+ B-
 Tue, Feb 3 212 @Buffalo W 73 - 71 73% +4  81% 20 - 0 11 - 0 C+ +2 D+ -3 B+ F D+ B+ +5 F+ A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 188 @Marshall W 90 - 74 70% +13  99% 21 - 0 A- +17 A- +11 A- A+ D+ B+ +6 B B+ D+
 Fri, Feb 13 219 Ohio W 90 - 74 88% +10  94% 22 - 0 12 - 0 B +10 B+ +9 B+ A A- C+ +1 C B D-
 Tue, Feb 17 202 @Massachusetts W 86 - 77 71% +5  91% 23 - 0 13 - 0 B +10 B+ +9 A- F A+ C+ +0 F A- C
 Fri, Feb 20 167 Bowling Green W 91 - 77 83% +10  90% 24 - 0 14 - 0 B +10 A- +11 A+ B- B+ C -1 C B- C
 Tue, Feb 24 248 @Eastern Michigan W 74 - 64 78% +12  99% 25 - 0 15 - 0 B +8 C- -1 F+ B- A+ A +9 A B- D
 Fri, Feb 27 275 @Western Michigan W 69 - 67 82% -3  12% 26 - 0 16 - 0 C -1 F+ -8 C- F C A- +7 B- C+ C-
 Tue, Mar 3 153 Toledo W 87 - 78 81%
 Fri, Mar 6 219 @Ohio W 84 - 77 73%
Totals 28 - 0 18 - 0 +6 B- +5 D B+ C+ C+ +2 B- B- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- A- C+ B- B+ 38% 30% 44% C+ B+ D- B+ D+ B- B- B- B- C+ D+ C- C C- 36% 22% 41% C+ C- C+ B+ B C+ C+ D C+
1.16 67% 39% 36% +5 0 1.14 23% 1.2 .27 15% .33 75% .25 1.06 62% 39% 34% +2 0 1.05 29% 0.9 .26 17% .29 75% .24
Nov
3		 Old Dominion C+ A D+ D B 55% 6% 39% A+ A- D- F F D+ A A A+ B C+ D+ F F 33% 27% 41% C F+ A B+ A A+ C F D+
1.16 71% 33% 30% +5 +3 1.18 25% 0.6 .16 16% .43 81% .35 0.96 56% 38% 45% +6 -1 1.12 17% 1.0 .17 25% .29 81% .23
Nov
15		 Air Force C D+ A+ A A- 26% 20% 54% C- B+ C+ F F D+ F F F B A+ F B+ B+ 48% 15% 37% D+ B A- D B D- F C F
1.14 57% 64% 41% +11 -1 1.22 31% 0.6 .19 16% .09 60% .05 0.91 41% 57% 29% -8 +1 0.89 17% 1.2 .19 18% .40 64% .25
Nov
20		 Mercyhurst C+ A+ F F C 42% 18% 40% C- C D- C- D- C+ A+ A+ A+ D- F F C- F 28% 28% 45% D+ F D- A- C B+ D+ B C-
1.16 74% 25% 28% +1 +1 1.04 27% 1.0 .27 17% .57 84% .48 1.08 69% 54% 33% +7 -2 1.13 31% 0.9 .28 18% .24 69% .17
Nov
23		 Arkansas Pine Bluff A B C A+ A+ 56% 9% 35% A A+ F C F A A- A+ A+ D+ A+ C- A- A+ 44% 21% 34% D- A C+ F F F D- F F
1.36 66% 40% 50% +13 +3 1.33 24% 1.1 .28 11% .44 88% .39 1.03 41% 38% 29% -10 0 0.82 24% 1.6 .38 13% .35 84% .30
Nov
26		 UNC Greensboro D+ A+ C D- C- 33% 9% 58% B+ C F F F C B A- A- B+ B- D+ A- B 33% 22% 46% C B- D F F A+ F F+ F
1.14 78% 40% 31% +4 +1 1.13 21% 0.7 .15 14% .31 79% .24 0.99 53% 40% 29% -5 -1 0.91 30% 1.3 .39 24% .45 76% .35
Dec
6		 Maine A C F A+ B 39% 14% 47% B- B A+ A+ A+ D- F A+ D+ B- C+ A- D D+ 40% 22% 38% C C- D F F+ A+ A- B- B+
1.31 60% 29% 42% +5 +1 1.14 50% 1.5 .74 21% .23 85% .20 0.86 56% 30% 35% -2 0 0.98 21% 1.3 .27 28% .25 62% .16
Dec
10		 UNC Asheville B- A C- B B+ 36% 22% 41% D B F A+ F A+ C+ A- B D+ D- D F F 29% 34% 36% C- F A+ F B D+ C- F D
1.15 71% 38% 38% +7 0 1.16 12% 1.3 .15 6% .33 75% .25 1.12 65% 45% 43% +9 -2 1.16 10% 2.3 .24 15% .33 77% .26
Dec
13		 Eastern Kentucky C B C+ B- C 38% 20% 43% C+ C+ F A+ C+ B F F F B+ B B D C- 13% 31% 56% A+ C+ F A+ B A- F D- F
1.17 67% 45% 38% +7 0 1.16 23% 1.6 .35 13% .15 33% .05 1.02 50% 33% 37% 0 -3 0.96 43% 0.7 .30 21% .41 77% .32
Dec
16		 Wright St. B- A+ F A+ A+ 48% 15% 38% B+ A+ F F F B- A+ F A- B F B A+ B+ 46% 21% 32% D+ B C+ A+ A D- F D- F
1.15 74% 14% 56% +16 +1 1.38 10% 0.0 .00 15% .46 61% .28 1.05 69% 33% 17% -4 0 0.95 31% 0.8 .23 14% .38 79% .30
Dec
20		 Ball St. A D+ F A+ A 33% 21% 46% C- A- F A+ D D+ A+ A+ A+ D- F F C+ F 35% 30% 35% A F A+ B+ A+ F C F D+
1.23 56% 20% 55% +10 0 1.21 20% 1.4 .28 20% .39 95% .38 1.10 68% 50% 32% +6 -1 1.11 13% 0.8 .09 10% .29 78% .22
Dec
30		 Bowling Green A A- A+ A+ A+ 44% 17% 40% C+ A+ B- A B+ F+ A A+ A+ C- F F A+ D- 47% 18% 35% C+ D C C+ C C+ D- B D+
1.23 67% 50% 47% +14 +1 1.31 31% 1.3 .38 21% .40 92% .37 1.10 69% 50% 26% +3 +1 1.11 28% 0.8 .22 17% .37 70% .26
Jan
3		 Akron C- C F F F 25% 10% 65% C F C- A+ A D A+ A+ A+ A D+ B+ A+ A+ 32% 11% 57% C A C D+ C- A A F B+
1.06 58% 20% 26% -10 0 0.83 31% 1.5 .47 21% .53 83% .44 1.02 65% 33% 27% -5 +1 0.94 32% 1.3 .43 21% .18 90% .16
Jan
6		 Western Michigan C A+ B- F B- 43% 11% 47% B- B- B D- C F A+ A A+ C+ C F A+ B- 52% 19% 30% F C C A+ A D+ F+ C+ D-
1.18 80% 40% 27% +5 +2 1.15 34% 1.0 .34 19% .57 79% .45 1.03 54% 50% 25% -4 +1 0.96 30% 0.6 .19 15% .35 73% .25
Jan
9		 Toledo A- A A+ A A+ 39% 13% 48% C+ A+ D- B D+ A- F A+ F+ B+ A B+ F C+ 28% 41% 31% A+ B C- A+ A C+ F+ F F
1.25 73% 57% 41% +13 +1 1.30 28% 1.1 .31 14% .13 88% .12 1.05 47% 36% 47% +2 -3 1.00 30% 0.6 .18 16% .34 85% .29
Jan
13		 Central Michigan A+ A A+ A+ A+ 37% 16% 47% C- A+ F A+ B A- A+ A+ A+ A B- D B+ C+ 33% 35% 33% A- B- B- A+ A+ B+ A- B- B+
1.43 72% 50% 48% +17 0 1.37 24% 2.0 .48 13% .46 89% .41 0.87 53% 44% 29% -2 -2 0.94 26% 0.4 .11 21% .22 67% .15
Jan
17		 Buffalo B A+ F A+ A 48% 10% 43% B+ A F D- F A A F C+ F D+ F F F 35% 25% 40% A- F B- A+ A B- C F D
1.26 76% 17% 46% +14 +2 1.34 15% 0.8 .12 13% .36 62% .22 1.22 62% 53% 50% +15 -1 1.30 24% 0.8 .18 18% .34 83% .28
Jan
20		 Kent St. A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ 40% 15% 45% B- A+ D- F F A+ A+ F B+ D- F+ D- B- D- 43% 13% 45% D- D- F B- D- C+ F F+ F
1.30 84% 67% 32% +13 +1 1.31 24% 0.7 .16 7% .44 65% .29 1.23 67% 43% 32% +3 +1 1.11 44% 1.0 .44 19% .47 81% .38
Jan
27		 Massachusetts A- C- A C- D+ 27% 9% 64% C+ C- B A+ A+ A- A+ C+ A+ F D F F F 27% 33% 39% A+ F D- D+ F+ F+ B- F C-
1.28 58% 50% 32% -1 +1 1.02 33% 1.7 .58 13% .65 74% .48 1.25 64% 53% 40% +10 -2 1.18 36% 1.3 .45 15% .30 76% .23
Jan
31		 Northern Illinois C A- A+ F B- 42% 12% 46% C+ B- D+ F F A C- A C+ A- F C- A D- 39% 16% 45% C+ D A+ A+ A+ B- B- A+ A-
1.16 71% 71% 27% +5 +1 1.14 29% 0.5 .14 12% .31 80% .25 0.83 70% 38% 26% -1 +1 1.02 17% 0.5 .09 23% .30 53% .16
Feb
3		 Buffalo D+ A+ A+ F+ A- 43% 20% 37% C- B+ F F F D+ F F F B+ F C+ F F 35% 17% 48% C+ F+ F A+ A+ A+ C D C-
1.07 78% 64% 30% +12 0 1.26 18% 0.4 .07 19% .11 50% .05 1.04 69% 38% 41% +9 0 1.20 36% 0.2 .06 22% .34 78% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Marshall A- A+ F A A- 40% 23% 36% C+ A- B+ A+ A+ D+ C+ B B- B+ F A A+ B+ 32% 20% 48% D B F A+ B+ D+ D A+ C+
1.28 79% 18% 41% +8 0 1.17 41% 1.6 .66 18% .37 76% .28 1.05 78% 27% 26% -2 0 0.98 39% 0.7 .28 16% .29 59% .17
Feb
13		 Ohio B+ B F A+ B+ 48% 20% 31% C+ B+ F+ A+ A A- A+ C+ A+ C+ C+ F A+ C 34% 26% 40% B- C A+ F+ B D- C B+ C+
1.25 62% 27% 47% +6 +1 1.15 27% 1.9 .50 13% .45 75% .33 1.03 56% 64% 24% 0 -1 1.00 19% 1.1 .22 13% .32 65% .21
Feb
17		 Massachusetts B+ C A+ A A 37% 18% 45% C- A- F A F A+ A+ C A+ C+ D- A+ F F 40% 30% 30% B F A C+ A- C B A+ A-
1.22 61% 56% 41% +9 0 1.20 13% 1.3 .17 10% .52 73% .38 1.09 65% 27% 60% +11 -1 1.22 24% 1.1 .28 18% .28 56% .16
Feb
20		 Bowling Green A- C+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 13% 54% C A+ D A+ B- B+ A+ F+ A- C B A+ F+ C 43% 14% 43% C C B B- B- C A- C A-
1.23 59% 57% 43% +10 +1 1.23 24% 1.4 .32 15% .43 67% .29 1.04 52% 25% 40% -1 +1 1.03 24% 0.8 .19 16% .24 73% .18
Feb
24		 Eastern Michigan C- B- A- F D- 29% 27% 44% F+ F+ D A+ B- A+ D+ D D A C+ A+ C- A 26% 37% 37% A+ A B C B- D F A F+
1.04 61% 47% 19% -7 -2 0.85 25% 1.4 .34 6% .28 68% .19 0.90 57% 15% 35% -8 -3 0.80 24% 1.0 .24 15% .38 65% .25
Feb
27		 Western Michigan F+ A+ F F C- 49% 20% 31% C C- F D- F C A+ F B A- D A+ A B- 46% 32% 22% B- B- C C+ C+ C- F+ C- F+
1.01 75% 20% 27% +1 +1 1.06 12% 1.0 .12 13% .42 60% .25 0.98 61% 25% 27% -5 -1 0.90 29% 1.0 .29 16% .35 75% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.9 34.8 59.8 95.5 1st
2nd 4.5 4.5 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 5.3 34.8 59.8 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 59.8    59.8
17-1 100.0% 34.8    5.9 29.0
16-2 16.0% 0.9    0.0 0.8
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 95.5% 95.5 65.7 29.8



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 59.8% 45.6% 35.3% 10.3% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 17.8 8.6 0.0 32.6 15.9%
17-1 34.8% 36.1% 31.0% 5.2% 11.5 0.0 0.1 6.1 6.3 0.1 22.3 7.5%
16-2 5.3% 28.4% 26.9% 1.6% 11.7 0.5 1.0 0.0 3.8 2.1%
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 41.4% 33.4% 8.0% 11.4 58.6 12.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 21.2% 100.0% 11.3 0.0 0.3 2.9 59.3 37.3 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 18.2% 16.7% 11.1 0.3 14.2 2.2 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 11.1% 15.1% 11.1 0.2 13.2 1.7
Lose Out 1.1% 1.0% 11.0 1.0