Miami (OH)
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.1 #100
Expected Predictive Rating +15.1 #31
Pace 74.2 #59
Improvement +1.3 #112

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #83 A- B+ D B- C+
Defense #129 C- C B+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #205 1.32 #40 +2.3 #106
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #272 0.72 #220 -2.0 #274
Three Pointers 47% #73 1.13 #49 +5.5 #30
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #40 +5.9 #40
Freethrows 18.9 #100 81% #6 15.3 #40
Second Chance 23.5% #340 1.13 #89 0.27 #287
Turnovers 15.5% #107
Total Offense +4.0 #83

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #182 1.18 #192 -0.5 #196
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #187 0.85 #303 -0.9 #247
Three Pointers 41% #184 1.01 #179 +0.2 #182
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #222 -1.2 #222
Freethrows 16.7 #162 76% #316 12.7 #164
Second Chance 27.2% #75 0.95 #73 0.26 #46
Turnovers 16.5% #192
Total Defense +1.1 #129

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.0% #123 0.1% #175
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.4% #37 2.3% #225
Possession Length 16.5 #118 16.7 #97
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #201 0.17 #152
Improvement -0.5 #216 +1.8 #75

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.6% 24.8% 19.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.9 11.8 12.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.8% 98.8%
Conference Champion 31.8% 40.3% 18.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round22.5% 24.7% 19.1%
Second Round3.3% 3.9% 2.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.8% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Toledo (Away) - 60.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 12 - 1
Quad 39 - 310 - 4
Quad 414 - 124 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 253 Old Dominion W 87-72 89%     -2.7   1 - 0 +6.6 +4.5 +1.1
  Sat, Nov 15 336 @Air Force W 76-61 88%     9.9   2 - 0 +7.1 +6.0 +1.8
  Thu, Nov 20 320 Mercyhurst W 76-71 94%     4.7   3 - 0 -7.5 +4.0 -11.2
  Sun, Nov 23 331 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 111-84 95%     19.5   4 - 0 +13.5 +14.5 -4.9
  Wed, Nov 26 280 UNC Greensboro W 82-71 86%     -0.9   5 - 0 +4.4 +1.9 +2.2
  Sat, Dec 6 343 Maine W 93-61 96%     21.1   6 - 0 +17.3 +16.6 +0.1
  Wed, Dec 10 242 @UNC Asheville W 90-87 OT 74%     6.0   7 - 0 +1.3 +6.8 -5.8
  Sat, Dec 13 264 @Eastern Kentucky W 79-69 78%     9.3   8 - 0 +7.1 +6.0 +1.5
  Tue, Dec 16 147 @Wright St. W 83-76 56%     8.5   9 - 0 +10.6 +9.5 +0.9
  Sat, Dec 20 318 @Ball St. W 86-77 85%     3.4   10 - 0 1 - 0 +2.7 +10.8 -8.0
  Tue, Dec 30 127 @Bowling Green W 93-83 50%     13.3   11 - 0 2 - 0 +15.1 +15.6 -1.2
  Sat, Jan 3 68 Akron W 76-73 49%     -1.2   12 - 0 3 - 0 +8.4 -0.1 +8.5
  Tue, Jan 6 271 Western Michigan W 87-76 90%     6.0   13 - 0 4 - 0 +1.9 +4.0 -2.6
  Fri, Jan 9 172 @Toledo W 83-80 61%    
  Tue, Jan 13 326 Central Michigan W 86-68 96%    
  Sat, Jan 17 182 Buffalo W 84-74 81%    
  Tue, Jan 20 139 @Kent St. W 86-85 53%    
  Tue, Jan 27 169 Massachusetts W 86-77 80%    
  Sat, Jan 31 328 Northern Illinois W 87-69 96%    
  Tue, Feb 3 182 @Buffalo W 81-77 63%    
  Sat, Feb 7 163 @Marshall W 82-79 59%    
  Sat, Feb 14 173 Ohio W 85-76 80%    
  Tue, Feb 17 169 @Massachusetts W 83-80 61%    
  Sat, Feb 21 127 Bowling Green W 82-76 71%    
  Tue, Feb 24 196 @Eastern Michigan W 77-73 65%    
  Sat, Feb 28 271 @Western Michigan W 84-76 77%    
  Fri, Mar 6 173 @Ohio W 82-79 62%    
Projected Record 23 - 4 13 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.8 6.9 11.0 8.9 2.9 31.8 1st
2nd 0.2 2.6 9.9 12.4 6.4 1.1 32.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 6.5 6.7 1.8 0.1 16.5 3rd
4th 0.4 3.4 4.3 1.0 0.0 9.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 2.8 0.8 0.0 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.6 0.0 2.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.9 8.3 14.3 19.5 21.2 17.5 10.1 2.9 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 2.9    2.6 0.3
16-2 88.9% 8.9    6.5 2.4 0.0
15-3 62.9% 11.0    5.7 4.7 0.6 0.0
14-4 32.7% 6.9    1.9 3.5 1.4 0.1
13-5 9.2% 1.8    0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 31.8% 31.8 16.9 11.5 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 2.9% 43.1% 39.5% 3.6% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.7 5.9%
16-2 10.1% 34.3% 33.8% 0.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.8 1.5 0.1 6.6 0.8%
15-3 17.5% 29.4% 29.2% 0.2% 11.8 1.4 3.4 0.4 0.0 12.4 0.3%
14-4 21.2% 24.5% 24.5% 0.0% 12.0 0.7 3.8 0.7 0.0 16.0 0.1%
13-5 19.5% 19.1% 19.1% 12.2 0.2 2.6 0.9 0.0 15.7
12-6 14.3% 15.9% 15.9% 12.4 0.0 1.3 0.8 0.1 12.1
11-7 8.3% 12.0% 12.0% 12.7 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.3
10-8 3.9% 9.7% 9.7% 12.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.5
9-9 1.7% 7.0% 7.0% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.6
8-10 0.5% 3.0% 3.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.5
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 22.6% 22.4% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 4.9 13.2 3.7 0.3 0.0 77.4 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 10.3 1.1 3.4 6.1 12.3 16.2 54.2 6.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 9.2% 10.9 1.8 6.4 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 10.0% 11.1 8.9 1.1