Miami (OH)
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating +6.9 86
Results Rating +18.3 18
Consistency 0.11 10
Pace 73.6 50
Improvement +1.7 120

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B 61 B+ D+ B B- C+
Defense C+ 137 C- B C+ C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 209 A- 67% 27 +2.9 81
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 269 C+ 40% 105 -0.9 227
Three Pointers 45% 95 B 37% 55 +4.1 52
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 136 B+ +5.6 30
1st FG Attempt B+ 1.14 33
Second Chance D- 23.8% 339 B+ 1.17 30 D+ 0.28 254
Opponents' Steals C+ 9.1% 143
Other Turnovers B+ 5.8% 34
Turnovers B 14.9% 71
Freethrows C+ 0.32 124 B 76% 48 B- 0.25 87
Total Offense B +5.7 61

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D- 38% 324 B- 9.1% 78
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 11% 348 C 5.3% 206
Three Pointers B- 88% 101 C- 1.1% 248
Total D+ 51% 282 B- 4.9% 94

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 261 D+ 62% 276 -0.2 177
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 128 C- 40% 258 +0.9 267
Three Pointers 42% 137 C 34% 209 +0.8 224
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.3 113 D+ +1.9 253
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 233
Second Chance C+ 29.0% 122 B+ 0.89 24 B 0.26 51
Turnovers from Steals C 9.6% 175
Other Turnovers C+ 7.8% 115
Turnovers C+ 17.4% 134
Freethrows C+ 0.28 116 D+ 74% 303 C+ 0.21 145
Total Defense C+ +1.2 137

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 43% 77 D+ 8.1% 296
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 20% 79 C- 4.2% 210
Three Pointers C+ 82% 121 C+ 1.2% 105
Total B- 51% 89 D+ 4.4% 277

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.3 79 17.0 132
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 244 0.14 67
Consistency 0.09 7 0.09 14
Improvement +0.0 192 +1.8 88

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Longshot
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 97 84 68
Results Rating Rank 36 28 15
Conference Record 16 - 2 18 - 0 18 - 0
Conference Finish 2 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 11
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 2nd Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45% 47% 38%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12% 14% 5%
Average Seed 11.4 11.3 11.6
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 94% 98% 74%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four7% 8% 3%
First Round40% 41% 36%
Second Round7% 7% 4%
Sweet Sixteen1% 1% 1%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Western Michigan (Away) - 84.2% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 02 - 0
Quad 310 - 112 - 1
Quad 417 - 029 - 1


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 241 Old Dominion W 87 - 72 91% -3  34% 1 - 0 B- +7 C+ +2 A- F D+ B +4 F+ A A+
 Sat, Nov 15 350 @Air Force W 76 - 61 94% +10  99% 2 - 0 C+ +4 C +0 B+ F D+ B +5 B B D-
 Thu, Nov 20 289 Mercyhurst W 76 - 71 94% +5  95% 3 - 0 D+ -6 C+ +2 C D- B- D- -7 F C B+
 Sun, Nov 23 330 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 111 - 84 96% +16  88% 4 - 0 B+ +13 A +12 A+ F A C- -3 A F F
 Wed, Nov 26 298 UNC Greensboro W 82 - 71 91% -1  37% 5 - 0 C+ +3 D+ -3 C F C- B+ +6 B F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 339 Maine W 93 - 61 97% +21  99% 6 - 0 A- +17 A +13 B A+ D- B- +3 D+ F+ A+
 Wed, Dec 10 229 @UNC Asheville W 90 - 87 OT 77% +6  70% 7 - 0 C+ +2 B +6 B+ F A+ D+ -4 F B D+
 Sat, Dec 13 286 @Eastern Kentucky W 79 - 69 85% +9  91% 8 - 0 B- +6 C +1 C C+ B B +5 C B A-
 Tue, Dec 16 161 @Wright St. W 83 - 76 66% +8  96% 9 - 0 B +10 B- +5 A+ F B- B +4 B A D-
 Sat, Dec 20 313 @Ball St. W 86 - 77 88% +3  67% 10 - 0 1 - 0 C+ +3 A- +11 A- D D+ D- -8 F A F
 Tue, Dec 30 179 @Bowling Green W 93 - 83 69% +13  82% 11 - 0 2 - 0 B+ +12 A +14 A+ B+ D- C- -2 D C C+
 Sat, Jan 3 77 Akron W 76 - 73 59% -1  34% 12 - 0 3 - 0 B- +8 C- -1 F A D A +9 A C- A
 Tue, Jan 6 279 Western Michigan W 87 - 76 93% +6  90% 13 - 0 4 - 0 C +1 C -0 B- C F C+ +1 C A D+
 Fri, Jan 9 162 @Toledo W 87 - 73 66% +17  99% 14 - 0 5 - 0 A- +17 A- +11 A+ D+ A- B+ +6 B A C
 Tue, Jan 13 264 Central Michigan W 100 - 61 92% +17  98% 15 - 0 6 - 0 A+ +30 A+ +20 A+ B A- A +11 B- A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 208 Buffalo W 105 - 102 OT 88% -0  44% 16 - 0 7 - 0 C- -3 B +7 A+ F A F -10 F A B-
 Tue, Jan 20 152 @Kent St. W 107 - 101 OT 63% +6  79% 17 - 0 8 - 0 B +9 A+ +16 A+ F A+ D- -8 D- D- C+
 Tue, Jan 27 188 Massachusetts W 86 - 84 86% -3  15% 18 - 0 9 - 0 C- -3 A- +11 C- A+ A- F -14 F D- F+
 Sat, Jan 31 321 Northern Illinois W 85 - 61 96% +3  49% 19 - 0 10 - 0 B +11 C+ +2 B- F A A- +8 D+ A+ B-
 Tue, Feb 3 208 @Buffalo W 73 - 71 73% +4  81% 20 - 0 11 - 0 C+ +2 D+ -3 B+ F D+ B+ +6 F+ A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 173 @Marshall W 90 - 74 68% +13  99% 21 - 0 A +18 A +12 A- A+ D+ B+ +6 B B+ D+
 Fri, Feb 13 211 Ohio W 90 - 74 88% +10  94% 22 - 0 12 - 0 B +10 B+ +9 B+ A A- C+ +1 C+ B D-
 Tue, Feb 17 188 @Massachusetts W 86 - 77 71% +5  91% 23 - 0 13 - 0 B +10 A- +10 A- F A+ C+ +0 F A- C-
 Fri, Feb 20 179 Bowling Green W 91 - 77 85% +10  90% 24 - 0 14 - 0 B +10 A- +11 A+ C+ B+ C -1 C B- C-
 Tue, Feb 24 246 @Eastern Michigan W 74 - 64 80% +12  99% 25 - 0 15 - 0 B +8 C- -1 F+ B- A+ A +9 A B- D
 Fri, Feb 27 279 @Western Michigan W 87 - 76 84%
 Tue, Mar 3 162 Toledo W 88 - 78 83%
 Fri, Mar 6 211 @Ohio W 85 - 78 73%
Totals 27 - 1 17 - 1 +7 B +6 C- B+ C+ C+ +1 B B B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B A- C+ B B+ 38% 29% 45% C+ B+ D- B+ D+ B C+ B B- C+ D+ C- C D+ 36% 22% 42% C+ C- C+ B+ B C+ C+ D+ C+
1.17 67% 40% 37% +6 0 1.14 24% 1.2 .28 15% .32 76% .25 1.07 62% 40% 34% +2 0 1.05 29% 0.9 .26 17% .28 74% .24
Nov
3		 Old Dominion C+ A D+ D B 55% 6% 39% A+ A- D- F F D+ A A A+ B C+ D+ F F 33% 27% 41% C F+ A B A A+ C F D+
1.16 71% 33% 30% +5 +3 1.18 25% 0.6 .16 16% .43 81% .35 0.96 56% 38% 45% +6 -1 1.12 17% 1.0 .17 25% .29 81% .23
Nov
15		 Air Force C D+ A+ A A- 26% 20% 54% C- B+ C+ F F D+ F F F B A+ F B+ B+ 48% 15% 37% D+ B A- D B D- F C+ F
1.14 57% 64% 41% +11 -1 1.22 31% 0.6 .19 16% .09 60% .05 0.91 41% 57% 29% -8 +1 0.89 17% 1.2 .19 18% .40 64% .25
Nov
20		 Mercyhurst C+ A+ F F C 42% 18% 40% C- C D- C- D- B- A+ A+ A+ D- F F D+ F 28% 28% 45% D+ F D- A C B+ D+ B D+
1.16 74% 25% 28% +1 +1 1.04 27% 1.0 .27 17% .57 84% .48 1.08 69% 54% 33% +7 -2 1.13 31% 0.9 .28 18% .24 69% .17
Nov
23		 Arkansas Pine Bluff A B C+ A+ A+ 56% 9% 35% A A+ F C F A A- A+ A+ C- A+ C- A- A+ 44% 21% 34% D- A C+ F F F D- F F
1.36 66% 40% 50% +13 +3 1.33 24% 1.1 .28 11% .44 88% .39 1.03 41% 38% 29% -10 0 0.82 24% 1.6 .38 13% .35 84% .30
Nov
26		 UNC Greensboro D+ A+ C D- C- 33% 9% 58% B+ C F F F C- B A A- B+ B- D+ A- B 33% 22% 46% C B D F F A+ F F+ F
1.14 78% 40% 31% +4 +1 1.13 21% 0.7 .15 14% .31 79% .24 0.99 53% 40% 29% -5 -1 0.91 30% 1.3 .39 24% .45 76% .35
Dec
6		 Maine A C F A+ B 39% 14% 47% B- B A+ A+ A+ D- F A+ D+ B- C+ A- D D+ 40% 22% 38% C D+ D+ F F+ A+ A- B- B+
1.31 60% 29% 42% +5 +1 1.14 50% 1.5 .74 21% .23 85% .20 0.86 56% 30% 35% -2 0 0.98 21% 1.3 .27 28% .25 62% .16
Dec
10		 UNC Asheville B A+ C- B+ A- 36% 22% 41% D B+ F A+ F A+ C+ A- B D+ D- D F F 29% 34% 36% C- F A+ F B D+ C- F D
1.15 71% 38% 38% +7 0 1.16 12% 1.3 .15 6% .33 75% .25 1.12 65% 45% 43% +9 -2 1.16 10% 2.3 .24 15% .33 77% .26
Dec
13		 Eastern Kentucky C B C+ B- C 38% 20% 43% C+ C F A+ C+ B F F F B B B D C- 13% 31% 56% A C F A+ B A- F F+ F
1.17 67% 45% 38% +7 0 1.16 23% 1.6 .35 13% .15 33% .05 1.02 50% 33% 37% 0 -3 0.96 43% 0.7 .30 21% .41 77% .32
Dec
16		 Wright St. B- A+ F A+ A+ 48% 15% 38% B+ A+ F F F B- A+ F A- B F B A+ B+ 46% 21% 32% D+ B C A+ A D- F+ D- F
1.15 74% 14% 56% +16 +1 1.38 10% 0.0 .00 15% .46 61% .28 1.05 69% 33% 17% -4 0 0.95 31% 0.8 .23 14% .38 79% .30
Dec
20		 Ball St. A- D+ F A+ A 33% 21% 46% C- A- F A+ D D+ A+ A+ A+ D- F F C+ F 35% 30% 35% A F A+ B A F C F D+
1.23 56% 20% 55% +10 0 1.21 20% 1.4 .28 20% .39 95% .38 1.10 68% 50% 32% +6 -1 1.11 13% 0.8 .09 10% .29 78% .22
Dec
30		 Bowling Green A A- A A+ A+ 44% 17% 40% C+ A+ B- A B+ D- A- A+ A+ C- F F A+ D- 47% 18% 35% C+ D C C+ C C+ D- B- D+
1.23 67% 50% 47% +14 +1 1.31 31% 1.3 .38 21% .40 92% .37 1.10 69% 50% 26% +3 +1 1.11 28% 0.8 .22 17% .37 70% .26
Jan
3		 Akron C- C F F F 25% 10% 65% C F C- A+ A D A+ A+ A+ A D+ B+ A+ A+ 32% 11% 57% C A C D+ C- A A F B+
1.06 58% 20% 26% -10 0 0.83 31% 1.5 .47 21% .53 83% .44 1.02 65% 33% 27% -5 +1 0.94 32% 1.3 .43 21% .18 90% .16
Jan
6		 Western Michigan C A+ B- F B- 43% 11% 47% B- B- B- D- C F A+ A A+ C+ C F A+ B- 52% 19% 30% F C C- A+ A D+ F+ C D-
1.18 80% 40% 27% +5 +2 1.15 34% 1.0 .34 19% .57 79% .45 1.03 54% 50% 25% -4 +1 0.96 30% 0.6 .19 15% .35 73% .25
Jan
9		 Toledo A- A A+ A A+ 39% 13% 48% C+ A+ D- B D+ A- F A+ F+ B+ A B+ F C+ 28% 41% 31% A+ B C- A+ A C F+ F F
1.25 73% 57% 41% +13 +1 1.30 28% 1.1 .31 14% .13 88% .12 1.05 47% 36% 47% +2 -3 1.00 30% 0.6 .18 16% .34 85% .29
Jan
13		 Central Michigan A+ A A+ A+ A+ 37% 16% 47% C- A+ F A+ B A- A+ A+ A+ A B- D B+ C+ 33% 35% 33% A- B- B- A+ A+ B+ A- B- B+
1.43 72% 50% 48% +17 0 1.37 24% 2.0 .48 13% .46 89% .41 0.87 53% 44% 29% -2 -2 0.94 26% 0.4 .11 21% .22 67% .15
Jan
17		 Buffalo B A+ F A+ A 48% 10% 43% B+ A+ F D- F A A F C+ F D+ F F F 35% 25% 40% A- F B A+ A B- C+ F D+
1.26 76% 17% 46% +14 +2 1.34 15% 0.8 .12 13% .36 62% .22 1.22 62% 53% 50% +15 -1 1.30 24% 0.8 .18 18% .34 83% .28
Jan
20		 Kent St. A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ 40% 15% 45% B- A+ D- F F A+ A+ F B+ D- F+ D- B- D- 43% 13% 45% D- D- F B- D- C+ F F+ F
1.30 84% 67% 32% +13 +1 1.31 24% 0.7 .16 7% .44 65% .29 1.23 67% 43% 32% +3 +1 1.11 44% 1.0 .44 19% .47 81% .38
Jan
27		 Massachusetts A- C- A C- C- 27% 9% 64% C+ C- B A+ A+ A- A+ C+ A+ F D F F F 27% 33% 39% A+ F D- D+ D- F+ B- F C-
1.28 58% 50% 32% -1 +1 1.02 33% 1.7 .58 13% .65 74% .48 1.25 64% 53% 40% +10 -2 1.18 36% 1.3 .45 15% .30 76% .23
Jan
31		 Northern Illinois C+ A- A+ F B- 42% 12% 46% C+ B- D+ F F A C- A C+ A- F C- A D 39% 16% 45% C+ D+ A+ A+ A+ B- B- A+ A-
1.16 71% 71% 27% +5 +1 1.14 29% 0.5 .14 12% .31 80% .25 0.83 70% 38% 26% -1 +1 1.02 17% 0.5 .09 23% .30 53% .16
Feb
3		 Buffalo D+ A+ A+ F+ A- 43% 20% 37% C- B+ F F F D+ F F F B+ F C+ F F 35% 17% 48% C+ F+ F A+ A+ A+ C D C-
1.07 78% 64% 30% +12 0 1.26 18% 0.4 .07 19% .11 50% .05 1.04 69% 38% 41% +9 0 1.20 36% 0.2 .06 22% .34 78% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Marshall A A+ F A A- 40% 23% 36% C+ A- B+ A+ A+ D+ C+ B B- B+ F A A+ B+ 32% 20% 48% D B F A+ B+ D+ D A+ C+
1.28 79% 18% 41% +8 0 1.17 41% 1.6 .66 18% .37 76% .28 1.05 78% 27% 26% -2 0 0.98 39% 0.7 .28 16% .29 59% .17
Feb
13		 Ohio B+ B- F A+ B+ 48% 20% 31% C+ B+ D- A+ A A- A+ B- A+ C+ C+ F A+ C 34% 26% 40% B- C+ A+ F+ B D- C B+ B-
1.25 62% 27% 47% +6 +1 1.15 27% 1.9 .50 13% .45 75% .33 1.03 56% 64% 24% 0 -1 1.00 19% 1.1 .22 13% .32 65% .21
Feb
17		 Massachusetts A- C A+ A A 37% 18% 45% C- A- F A F A+ A+ C A+ C+ D- A+ F F 40% 30% 30% B F A C+ A- C- B+ A+ A
1.22 61% 56% 41% +9 0 1.20 13% 1.3 .17 10% .52 73% .38 1.09 65% 27% 60% +11 -1 1.22 24% 1.1 .28 18% .28 56% .16
Feb
20		 Bowling Green A- C+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 13% 54% C A+ D A+ C+ B+ A+ F+ B+ C B A+ F C 43% 14% 43% C C B- B- B- C- A- C- A-
1.23 59% 57% 43% +10 +1 1.23 24% 1.4 .32 15% .43 67% .29 1.04 52% 25% 40% -1 +1 1.03 24% 0.8 .19 16% .24 73% .18
Feb
24		 Eastern Michigan C- B- A- F D- 29% 27% 44% F+ F+ D A+ B- A+ D+ D D A C+ A+ C- A 26% 37% 37% A+ A B C B- D F A F
1.04 61% 47% 19% -7 -2 0.85 25% 1.4 .34 6% .28 68% .19 0.90 57% 15% 35% -8 -3 0.80 24% 1.0 .24 15% .38 65% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 4.3 37.8 51.8 93.9 1st
2nd 1.0 5.0 6.1 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 1.1 9.3 37.8 51.8 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 51.8    51.8
17-1 100.0% 37.8    17.1 20.6
16-2 46.1% 4.3    0.5 3.8
15-3 7.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 93.9% 93.9 69.4 24.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 51.8% 50.9% 40.1% 10.8% 11.2 0.0 0.1 1.1 17.8 7.3 0.0 25.5 18.0%
17-1 37.8% 40.8% 35.8% 5.0% 11.5 0.0 7.2 8.0 0.2 22.3 7.8%
16-2 9.3% 34.0% 31.9% 2.1% 11.6 1.3 1.8 0.1 6.2 3.1%
15-3 1.1% 25.2% 25.2% 11.8 0.1 0.2 0.8
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 45.2% 37.5% 7.7% 11.4 54.8 12.3%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 20.8% 100.0% 11.3 0.1 0.5 4.5 63.1 31.7 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 14.4% 17.3% 11.1 0.4 14.1 2.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.3% 18.4% 11.1 0.7 15.6 1.9 0.1
Lose Out 0.3%