Miami (OH)
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.3#104
Expected Predictive Rating+11.0#55
Pace73.8#66
Improvement-1.1#257

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#76
First Shot+7.7#21
After Offensive Rebound-3.4#348
Layup/Dunks+0.3#172
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#210
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#25
Freethrows+1.6#90
Improvement+0.4#141

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#157
First Shot-2.9#277
After Offensive Rebounds+3.0#17
Layups/Dunks-0.3#187
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#274
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#218
Freethrows-0.8#243
Improvement-1.6#292
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.6% 20.1% 14.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 12.1 12.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 92.9% 97.6% 89.4%
Conference Champion 11.7% 19.4% 5.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round16.5% 20.0% 14.0%
Second Round2.4% 3.1% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bowling Green (Away) - 42.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 37 - 38 - 5
Quad 414 - 122 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 214 Old Dominion W 87-72 85%     1 - 0 +8.4 +5.4 +2.1
  Sat, Nov 15 326 @Air Force W 76-61 85%     2 - 0 +8.2 +5.6 +3.3
  Thu, Nov 20 318 Mercyhurst W 76-71 93%     3 - 0 -7.2 +4.0 -10.8
  Sun, Nov 23 352 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 111-84 96%     4 - 0 +11.2 +16.0 -8.5
  Wed, Nov 26 291 UNC Greensboro W 82-71 86%     5 - 0 +3.9 +2.5 +1.1
  Sat, Dec 6 342 Maine W 93-61 95%     6 - 0 +17.6 +15.6 +1.4
  Wed, Dec 10 231 @UNC Asheville W 90-87 OT 71%     7 - 0 +1.6 +7.3 -6.0
  Sat, Dec 13 260 @Eastern Kentucky W 79-69 74%     8 - 0 +7.6 +7.0 +0.9
  Tue, Dec 16 153 @Wright St. W 83-76 53%     9 - 0 +10.6 +9.5 +0.9
  Sat, Dec 20 306 @Ball St. W 86-77 82%     10 - 0 1 - 0 +3.7 +11.8 -8.1
  Tue, Dec 30 117 @Bowling Green L 75-77 43%    
  Sat, Jan 3 59 Akron L 87-89 44%    
  Tue, Jan 6 282 Western Michigan W 87-73 90%    
  Fri, Jan 9 169 @Toledo W 84-82 57%    
  Tue, Jan 13 322 Central Michigan W 86-69 94%    
  Sat, Jan 17 194 Buffalo W 84-75 81%    
  Tue, Jan 20 122 @Kent St. L 84-85 46%    
  Tue, Jan 27 163 Massachusetts W 84-76 76%    
  Sat, Jan 31 327 Northern Illinois W 89-72 94%    
  Tue, Feb 3 194 @Buffalo W 81-78 62%    
  Sat, Feb 14 190 Ohio W 86-77 80%    
  Tue, Feb 17 163 @Massachusetts W 81-79 56%    
  Sat, Feb 21 117 Bowling Green W 78-74 64%    
  Tue, Feb 24 217 @Eastern Michigan W 78-73 67%    
  Sat, Feb 28 282 @Western Michigan W 84-76 76%    
  Fri, Mar 6 190 @Ohio W 83-80 61%    
Projected Record 21 - 5 12 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.2 2.8 0.8 11.7 1st
2nd 0.3 2.9 7.9 8.1 3.5 0.5 23.1 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.2 8.2 7.2 1.8 0.2 20.9 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 7.0 5.3 1.0 0.1 15.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 4.8 4.3 0.7 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.1 3.3 0.7 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.3 0.6 0.0 4.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 4.1 7.3 11.2 15.5 17.2 16.9 12.9 7.9 3.3 0.8 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.7 0.1
16-2 84.2% 2.8    2.0 0.8 0.0
15-3 53.9% 4.2    2.0 1.9 0.3 0.0
14-4 22.9% 3.0    0.8 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 5.0% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.7% 11.7 5.7 4.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.8% 46.2% 42.3% 3.8% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 6.7%
16-2 3.3% 40.2% 39.1% 1.1% 11.5 0.0 0.7 0.6 0.0 2.0 1.8%
15-3 7.9% 30.7% 30.7% 0.0% 11.8 0.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 5.4 0.1%
14-4 12.9% 24.7% 24.7% 0.0% 12.1 0.3 2.3 0.6 0.0 9.7 0.0%
13-5 16.9% 19.0% 19.0% 12.3 0.1 2.0 1.0 0.1 13.7
12-6 17.2% 14.9% 14.9% 12.5 0.0 1.3 1.1 0.1 14.6
11-7 15.5% 11.9% 11.9% 12.9 0.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 13.7
10-8 11.2% 9.4% 9.4% 13.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 10.1
9-9 7.3% 6.0% 6.0% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.8
8-10 4.1% 3.6% 3.6% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.0
7-11 1.9% 0.9% 0.9% 13.8 0.0 0.0 1.8
6-12 0.8% 0.8
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.6% 16.5% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.0 8.6 4.9 0.9 0.1 83.4 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 10.1 2.0 1.0 3.0 5.1 2.0 11.1 18.2 47.5 10.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 9.2% 11.0 1.5 6.2 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 4.1% 11.5 2.0 2.0