Bowling Green
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -0.3 166
Results Rating -1.8 194
Consistency 0.19 343
Pace 70.1 130
Improvement -6.2 355

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 225 C D- C C+ B
Defense C+ 127 C C+ C+ C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 49% 4 C- 56% 235 +5.1 27
2 Pt. Jumpers 40% 148 D 34% 301 -2.0 278
Three Pointers 34% 326 C+ 35% 119 -3.0 279
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.2 40 C- -1.1 215
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 168
Second Chance D+ 27.7% 254 F 0.84 361 D- 0.23 341
Opponents' Steals C+ 8.9% 131
Other Turnovers C- 7.5% 229
Turnovers C 16.4% 162
Freethrows C+ 0.31 158 C 73% 175 C+ 0.23 149
Total Offense C- -2.0 225

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D- 37% 328 D+ 12.8% 294
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 33% 77 D- 7.9% 329
Three Pointers C+ 86% 147 C- 1.1% 244
Total D 49% 306 F 8.0% 351


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 207 C 57% 162 -0.6 149
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 276 C- 39% 214 -1.0 111
Three Pointers 45% 71 C+ 33% 126 +1.1 248
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.4 231 C+ -0.8 145
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 159
Second Chance B- 27.7% 82 C 1.04 188 C+ 0.29 106
Turnovers from Steals B- 11.0% 64
Other Turnovers D+ 6.6% 268
Turnovers C+ 17.6% 116
Freethrows C- 0.32 253 C 73% 209 C- 0.24 249
Total Defense C+ +1.7 127

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 99 C+ 12.4% 110
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 17% 34 C 5.3% 132
Three Pointers C- 85% 235 D 0.3% 307
Total C+ 54% 152 C 5.8% 155

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.5 182 16.8 87
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 34 0.18 232
Consistency 0.14 284 0.15 349
Improvement -3.4 323 -2.8 305

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 174 167 144
Results Rating Rank 210 206 151
Conference Record 9 - 9 9 - 9 9 - 9
Conference Finish 5 5 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5% 10% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.8 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round5% 10% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 65 - 11
Quad 410 - 316 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 233 Texas St. W 83 - 48 75% +13  88% 1 - 0 A+ +28 B- +5 A+ F B- A+ +23 A A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 300 Le Moyne W 83 - 60 85% +6  70% 2 - 0 B +11 C+ +2 B- F A+ A +9 B C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 109 @Davidson L 87 - 91 25% -9  1% 2 - 1 C+ +3 B +7 D+ B- A+ D+ -3 F B A+
 Wed, Nov 19 151 William & Mary L 74 - 82 59% -9  10% 2 - 2 D -11 F -11 F C F C+ +2 D+ C A+
 Mon, Nov 24 330 Bucknell W 71 - 66 85% +7  91% 3 - 2 D+ -6 D- -7 D+ D F C+ +1 F B A+
 Wed, Nov 26 359 VMI W 81 - 48 93% +22  99% 4 - 2 A- +16 C- -0 B C F A+ +18 A+ A A
 Mon, Dec 1 98 @Kansas St. W 82 - 66 20% +9  98% 5 - 2 A+ +25 A+ +19 A- A A+ A- +7 A+ D+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 99 Utah Valley L 71 - 82 40% -10  6% 5 - 3 D -9 D -5 D C+ B D+ -4 F A- A-
 Tue, Dec 16 347 Chicago St. W 76 - 55 92% +11  99% 6 - 3 C+ +5 D -5 C- F A A +10 A+ B C+
 Sat, Dec 20 222 @Ohio W 68 - 58 51% +9  87% 7 - 3 1 - 0 B +10 D- -6 D D+ F A+ +16 A C A+
 Tue, Dec 30 92 Miami (OH) L 83 - 93 38% -13  12% 7 - 4 1 - 1 D+ -7 C +1 B- D+ C D- -7 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 198 @Massachusetts W 101 - 100 OT 45% +0  50% 8 - 4 2 - 1 C+ +2 B- +5 B+ F A D+ -4 F B- B
 Tue, Jan 6 158 @Kent St. L 93 - 96 36% -2  22% 8 - 5 2 - 2 C +0 A+ +17 B+ A+ A- F -17 F F F
 Fri, Jan 9 68 Akron L 67 - 77 28% -11  0% 8 - 6 2 - 3 C- -4 F+ -10 C F D B+ +6 A C B+
 Sat, Jan 17 248 Eastern Michigan W 85 - 79 77% +6  77% 9 - 6 3 - 3 C- -2 A +13 A+ C+ C+ F -15 F C F+
 Tue, Jan 20 277 @Western Michigan W 72 - 54 63% +10  87% 10 - 6 4 - 3 B+ +14 D+ -3 D+ F C+ A+ +19 A+ B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 143 @Toledo L 72 - 73 34% +1  57% 10 - 7 4 - 4 C+ +3 C- -2 A- F F B +5 A+ D D-
 Tue, Jan 27 218 Buffalo L 78 - 89 72% -5  5% 10 - 8 4 - 5 F+ -17 C -0 D A- B+ F -18 F B- D-
 Sat, Jan 31 269 @Central Michigan L 59 - 62 61% +4  66% 10 - 9 4 - 6 D+ -6 F -19 F F C+ A+ +13 A+ F C
 Tue, Feb 3 280 Ball St. W 77 - 52 82% +13  94% 11 - 9 5 - 6 A- +15 B+ +9 A+ F+ F A +9 A C- C-
 Sat, Feb 7 145 @Arkansas St. L 54 - 91 35% -21  0% 11 - 10 F -33 F -24 F F F D- -7 F D D
 Wed, Feb 11 342 @Northern Illinois W 68 - 52 81% +15  94% 12 - 10 6 - 6 B- +6 F+ -9 C F F A+ +16 A+ B D-
 Sat, Feb 14 143 Toledo W 80 - 70 57% +6  71% 13 - 10 7 - 6 B- +8 B +6 C C+ A+ B- +2 A D- D+
 Tue, Feb 17 158 Kent St. L 71 - 78 59% -3  28% 13 - 11 7 - 7 D -10 F+ -10 F F+ D C+ +0 D+ A+ F
 Fri, Feb 20 92 @Miami (OH) L 77 - 91 19% -10  6% 13 - 12 7 - 8 D+ -5 C +0 C D- C+ D+ -4 D D C
 Tue, Feb 24 277 Western Michigan L 79 - 88 81% -2  29% 13 - 13 7 - 9 F -19 D -6 D+ F A- F -12 D- C- F
 Sat, Feb 28 198 Massachusetts W 81 - 62 68% -0  36% 14 - 13 8 - 9 B+ +14 B+ +8 B+ F+ B+ A- +8 B- A+ D-
 Fri, Mar 6 248 @Eastern Michigan W 77 - 69 57% +3  68% 15 - 13 9 - 9 B- +6 C+ +2 F+ B A B- +3 C A- D-
 Thu, Mar 12 143 Toledo L 76 - 77 45%
Totals 15 - 14 9 - 9 +0 C- -2 D C- B C+ +2 C+ C C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- D C+ C- 49% 40% 34% B C D+ F D- C C+ C C+ C+ C C- C+ C+ 38% 18% 45% C- C B- C C+ C+ C- C C-
1.06 56% 34% 35% -1 +1 1.02 28% 0.8 .23 16% .31 73% .23 1.06 57% 39% 33% -1 0 1.01 28% 1.0 .29 18% .32 73% .23
Nov
3		 Texas St. B- A F A+ A+ 47% 14% 39% B- A+ D F F B- F+ D F+ A+ B+ C A+ A+ 47% 20% 33% F A A+ D A+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.18 71% 29% 50% +14 +2 1.33 25% 0.6 .14 17% .27 69% .19 0.68 50% 40% 18% -12 +1 0.80 14% 1.0 .14 26% .13 43% .06
Nov
9		 Le Moyne C+ F A+ A+ C+ 57% 10% 33% A B- D+ F F A+ D- A+ C+ A A- F A- B+ 35% 11% 54% D+ B F A+ C A+ A- F C
1.18 42% 67% 47% +1 +3 1.09 27% 0.4 .11 9% .26 94% .25 0.85 50% 60% 28% -5 +1 0.93 34% 0.7 .25 34% .26 92% .24
Nov
15		 Davidson B C D+ F D+ 49% 30% 21% C D+ C+ B B- A+ A+ C+ A+ D+ D+ F F F 30% 21% 49% B- F A D- B A+ F F F
1.10 57% 35% 25% -4 0 0.93 31% 1.1 .33 11% .50 69% .34 1.15 62% 56% 48% +15 -1 1.30 23% 1.2 .27 23% .62 74% .46
Nov
19		 William & Mary F D- A+ F F 54% 8% 38% A F D+ B C F A+ A- A+ C+ D B- C+ C- 43% 6% 51% D D+ C+ C C A+ D F F
0.95 52% 75% 16% -11 +3 0.86 27% 1.1 .30 23% .45 78% .35 1.05 67% 33% 32% +2 +2 1.10 25% 1.1 .28 23% .40 88% .35
Nov
24		 Bucknell D- F C A+ D- 42% 11% 47% A D+ F A+ D F A+ D- A+ C+ D- A+ F F 44% 12% 44% F+ F A+ F B A+ F C F
1.03 42% 40% 43% 0 +2 1.04 16% 1.8 .28 22% .48 69% .33 0.96 63% 0% 42% +3 +2 1.12 15% 1.5 .23 26% .39 75% .29
Nov
26		 VMI C- B+ A- A- B- 42% 17% 42% B- B A+ F C F C C C A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 5% 56% F A+ D- A+ A A F F F
1.22 70% 50% 40% +11 +1 1.25 56% 0.8 .42 24% .30 73% .22 0.72 35% 0% 8% -32 +2 0.42 30% 0.5 .14 21% .61 78% .47
Dec
1		 Kansas St. A+ F A+ A+ A- 40% 10% 50% A- A- A+ C- A A+ B+ B- B+ A- A- A+ A+ A+ 49% 14% 37% D- A+ D+ C D+ F F A+ C-
1.28 37% 60% 46% +3 +1 1.10 44% 1.1 .50 12% .34 74% .25 1.03 52% 14% 26% -11 +2 0.84 35% 1.1 .38 9% .38 55% .21
Dec
6		 Utah Valley D A+ F+ F D 43% 19% 39% C+ D C B- C+ B C F D+ D+ F F D F 52% 8% 40% D F C+ A A- A- B- C+ B-
0.99 74% 30% 14% -6 +1 0.91 30% 1.1 .33 18% .34 65% .22 1.14 76% 75% 37% +14 +3 1.35 35% 0.9 .31 24% .27 67% .18
Dec
16		 Chicago St. D B- F F D 58% 2% 40% A+ C- F D- F A D+ D D A A+ A+ A- A+ 30% 48% 22% A+ A+ D+ A+ B C+ F A+ F
1.13 67% 0% 29% +1 +4 1.12 23% 1.0 .23 15% .31 72% .23 0.82 33% 25% 27% -16 -4 0.62 30% 0.7 .22 16% .48 63% .30
Dec
20		 Ohio D- F B C+ D- 53% 16% 31% B+ D C+ D- D+ F A+ A+ A+ A+ F F A+ A+ 26% 13% 62% D+ A B- D- C A+ F A F
1.01 46% 43% 36% -5 +2 0.96 35% 0.9 .32 24% .45 83% .37 0.86 70% 60% 17% -10 0 0.82 25% 1.1 .28 22% .57 63% .36
Dec
30		 Miami (OH) C A- A+ F B- 47% 18% 35% B+ B- C- D- D+ C A D- B+ D- D+ F F F 44% 17% 40% D+ F F D F A+ F+ F F
1.10 69% 50% 26% +3 +1 1.11 28% 0.8 .22 17% .37 70% .26 1.23 67% 50% 47% +14 +1 1.31 31% 1.3 .38 21% .40 92% .37
Jan
3		 Massachusetts B- B- F A+ B 54% 18% 29% B B+ F A- F A A+ F+ A+ D+ D B F F 54% 12% 35% F F A+ F B- B F D- F
1.16 63% 30% 44% +6 +1 1.16 14% 1.2 .17 11% .58 67% .39 1.15 64% 33% 50% +11 +2 1.29 20% 1.7 .33 21% .51 71% .36
Jan
6		 Kent St. A+ C- F A+ B 53% 9% 38% A B+ A+ A- A+ A- A+ A+ A+ F F D F F 42% 13% 45% D- F C F F F B+ F C
1.32 56% 25% 44% +4 +3 1.15 44% 1.2 .52 13% .51 87% .44 1.36 68% 43% 42% +10 +1 1.25 34% 1.5 .52 14% .31 89% .28
Jan
9		 Akron F+ D+ B C+ C 43% 24% 33% C- C D+ F F D D+ F D B+ D+ A+ B A 31% 13% 56% C+ A C C C B+ D- C- D-
0.93 55% 42% 35% 0 0 1.02 28% 0.5 .15 21% .25 64% .16 1.07 65% 14% 32% -2 0 0.98 32% 1.3 .41 19% .31 78% .24
Jan
17		 Eastern Michigan A C- D A+ A+ 51% 24% 24% C+ A+ B- C- C+ C+ B+ B A- F D+ F D F 38% 24% 38% D+ F F+ A C F+ C+ F D+
1.28 56% 33% 67% +10 0 1.22 32% 1.0 .32 15% .37 76% .28 1.19 63% 58% 37% +8 0 1.18 32% 0.8 .26 14% .24 86% .21
Jan
20		 Western Michigan D+ D A+ F F+ 58% 6% 36% A+ D+ D+ F F C+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ 34% 15% 51% D- A+ B- A B+ A+ B D B-
1.08 55% 67% 28% -3 +3 1.02 26% 0.4 .11 12% .46 70% .32 0.81 31% 57% 25% -13 0 0.77 28% 0.8 .23 23% .25 77% .19
Jan
24		 Toledo C- C A+ A+ B+ 67% 8% 25% A+ A- C+ F F F C D C- B A+ B C A+ 39% 22% 39% C- A+ C+ F D D- A- F B-
1.06 59% 75% 46% +8 +4 1.25 36% 0.2 .07 24% .23 67% .15 1.08 39% 38% 35% -7 0 0.88 28% 1.3 .36 12% .20 92% .18
Jan
27		 Buffalo C C F C D- 55% 12% 33% A- D C- A+ A- B+ C- F F+ F B F F F 40% 10% 50% D F B D+ B- D- D- D F+
1.17 61% 17% 35% 0 +2 1.06 31% 1.4 .43 15% .26 60% .16 1.33 53% 60% 54% +15 +1 1.35 22% 1.2 .26 13% .38 77% .29
Jan
31		 Central Michigan F F F F F 59% 15% 25% B+ F F F F C+ F F F A+ C A+ A+ A+ 46% 28% 26% D+ A+ C- F F C C+ A+ A
0.84 49% 22% 27% -11 +2 0.85 25% 0.4 .09 16% .20 58% .12 0.88 57% 21% 15% -13 0 0.76 29% 1.5 .44 18% .26 47% .12
Feb
3		 Ball St. B+ A+ F A+ A+ 42% 21% 37% C+ A+ C- F F+ F B- A+ A A C- C- A+ A 34% 23% 43% B A A+ F C- C- D A+ B+
1.23 78% 22% 56% +17 0 1.37 32% 0.7 .23 22% .31 93% .29 0.83 56% 36% 15% -13 -1 0.74 16% 1.5 .24 16% .32 47% .15
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Arkansas St. F C F F F 40% 22% 38% C F D F F F B+ C+ B+ D- F A F F 37% 8% 56% D- F D D+ D D C- A+ B+
0.72 59% 25% 10% -16 0 0.69 23% 0.1 .03 23% .38 73% .27 1.21 74% 25% 41% +11 +2 1.27 41% 1.1 .44 17% .34 57% .19
Feb
11		 Northern Illinois F+ C B C- C- 56% 14% 30% B+ C F D F F F A+ F A+ B+ D- A+ A+ 37% 14% 49% C+ A+ A+ F B D- A- F B-
0.98 61% 43% 33% +2 +2 1.10 17% 1.0 .17 22% .20 82% .16 0.75 47% 43% 16% -17 +1 0.71 17% 1.0 .17 19% .26 73% .19
Feb
14		 Toledo B F F A+ C- 50% 14% 36% B C F+ A+ C+ A+ A D+ A- B- A+ F D A- 27% 33% 40% A A D- C- D- D+ B C- B-
1.22 48% 29% 50% +2 +2 1.10 26% 1.4 .37 11% .32 68% .22 1.07 14% 59% 38% -3 -2 0.92 34% 1.1 .37 14% .23 77% .18
Feb
17		 Kent St. F+ F+ D+ F F 59% 6% 35% A+ F D- F F+ D A+ D+ A+ C+ A- D F D 29% 16% 56% C+ D+ A+ A+ A+ F F B F
0.98 48% 33% 24% -12 +3 0.86 25% 0.8 .20 18% .60 69% .42 1.08 46% 43% 40% +2 0 1.07 26% 0.3 .08 14% .64 70% .45
Feb
20		 Miami (OH) C D- F A C- 43% 14% 43% B+ C D F+ D- C+ D C- D D+ B- F F D- 33% 13% 54% C- D C F D C F A D
1.04 52% 25% 40% -1 +1 1.03 24% 0.8 .19 16% .24 73% .18 1.23 59% 57% 43% +10 +1 1.23 24% 1.4 .32 15% .43 67% .29
Feb
24		 Western Michigan D C F A- D 45% 18% 36% C D+ D- F F A- A+ D- A+ F D D D- F+ 38% 37% 25% A D- A+ F C- F F F F
1.08 60% 10% 40% -1 +1 1.02 23% 0.7 .15 10% .49 66% .32 1.21 60% 42% 38% +4 -2 1.06 19% 1.7 .31 12% .48 87% .42
Feb
28		 Massachusetts B+ C- A+ A- B 45% 8% 47% A- B+ C F F+ B+ C- A+ B A- C- A+ B- B 45% 18% 37% D- B- A+ A+ A+ D- A B+ A
1.24 59% 50% 39% +5 +2 1.16 29% 0.7 .19 14% .37 86% .32 0.95 61% 22% 32% -3 +1 0.98 20% 0.9 .17 15% .23 62% .14
Mar
6		 Eastern Michigan C+ A F C D 32% 40% 28% F F+ B- B B A A+ D A- B- F C+ A+ C- 33% 39% 27% A C B- A+ A- D- D- C D-
1.08 71% 14% 33% -6 -3 0.85 33% 1.1 .38 11% .41 69% .28 0.97 76% 35% 21% 0 -3 0.96 24% 0.8 .18 14% .31 74% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 100.0 100.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 100.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 100.0% 4.6% 4.6% 13.8 0.1 1.4 2.6 0.4 95.5
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 13.8 95.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.6% 100.0% 13.8 1.3 31.2 57.8 9.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 10.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 30.4%
Lose Out 54.3%