Bowling Green
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.2#117
Expected Predictive Rating+3.4#124
Pace70.7#151
Improvement-0.7#227

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#188
First Shot+1.4#136
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#326
Layup/Dunks+2.9#77
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#196
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#235
Freethrows+0.4#155
Improvement-1.3#277

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#68
First Shot+2.7#91
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#75
Layups/Dunks+1.5#128
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#184
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#88
Freethrows-1.5#284
Improvement+0.6#134
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.2% 15.7% 9.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.4 12.7
.500 or above 97.3% 99.1% 94.8%
.500 or above in Conference 93.4% 97.2% 88.5%
Conference Champion 16.6% 23.1% 7.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round13.2% 15.7% 9.9%
Second Round1.5% 1.9% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (OH) (Home) - 57.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 0
Quad 21 - 32 - 3
Quad 35 - 57 - 8
Quad 412 - 119 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 257 Texas St. W 83-48 86%     1 - 0 +26.7 +7.1 +19.4
  Sun, Nov 9 313 Le Moyne W 83-60 91%     2 - 0 +11.2 +0.4 +10.7
  Sat, Nov 15 129 @Davidson L 87-91 44%     2 - 1 +0.9 +7.1 -5.7
  Wed, Nov 19 119 William & Mary L 74-82 62%     2 - 2 -8.0 -6.4 -0.8
  Mon, Nov 24 308 Bucknell W 71-66 86%     3 - 2 -3.4 -3.2 -0.2
  Wed, Nov 26 331 VMI W 81-48 89%     4 - 2 +22.8 +5.0 +19.5
  Mon, Dec 1 58 @Kansas St. W 82-66 20%     5 - 2 +28.0 +20.7 +8.8
  Sat, Dec 6 88 Utah Valley L 71-82 49%     5 - 3 -7.5 -0.1 -7.1
  Tue, Dec 16 336 Chicago St. W 76-55 93%     6 - 3 +7.3 -0.6 +8.8
  Sat, Dec 20 190 @Ohio W 68-58 58%     7 - 3 1 - 0 +11.1 -2.5 +14.0
  Tue, Dec 30 104 Miami (OH) W 77-75 57%    
  Sat, Jan 3 163 @Massachusetts W 74-73 52%    
  Tue, Jan 6 122 @Kent St. L 77-79 42%    
  Sat, Jan 10 59 Akron L 80-83 40%    
  Sat, Jan 17 217 Eastern Michigan W 75-65 82%    
  Tue, Jan 20 282 @Western Michigan W 77-70 73%    
  Sat, Jan 24 169 @Toledo W 77-76 53%    
  Tue, Jan 27 194 Buffalo W 77-69 78%    
  Sat, Jan 31 322 @Central Michigan W 77-67 82%    
  Tue, Feb 3 306 Ball St. W 75-60 91%    
  Wed, Feb 11 327 @Northern Illinois W 79-69 82%    
  Sat, Feb 14 169 Toledo W 80-73 73%    
  Tue, Feb 17 122 Kent St. W 80-76 64%    
  Sat, Feb 21 104 @Miami (OH) L 74-78 36%    
  Tue, Feb 24 282 Western Michigan W 80-67 87%    
  Sat, Feb 28 163 Massachusetts W 77-70 72%    
  Fri, Mar 6 217 @Eastern Michigan W 72-68 64%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.5 5.3 4.6 2.0 0.4 16.6 1st
2nd 0.2 2.8 7.9 8.9 4.3 1.0 0.0 25.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.9 7.7 6.6 1.7 0.1 19.2 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 6.0 4.9 1.0 0.1 14.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 4.5 3.5 0.6 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.8 2.6 0.5 0.0 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.8 0.4 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.8 6.4 9.8 13.1 16.0 16.2 14.2 9.7 5.6 2.0 0.4 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 97.9% 2.0    1.8 0.2
16-2 82.4% 4.6    3.3 1.3 0.0
15-3 54.9% 5.3    2.7 2.3 0.3 0.0
14-4 24.4% 3.5    1.0 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 4.4% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.6% 16.6 9.3 5.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 47.2% 46.4% 0.8% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.5%
17-1 2.0% 35.3% 35.3% 11.5 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.3
16-2 5.6% 28.5% 28.5% 12.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.0
15-3 9.7% 22.0% 22.0% 12.2 0.1 1.4 0.6 0.0 7.6
14-4 14.2% 18.3% 18.3% 12.5 0.1 1.3 1.1 0.1 11.6
13-5 16.2% 14.6% 14.6% 12.7 0.0 0.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 13.8
12-6 16.0% 10.7% 10.7% 13.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 14.3
11-7 13.1% 7.8% 7.8% 13.2 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 12.1
10-8 9.8% 5.5% 5.5% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 9.3
9-9 6.4% 4.2% 4.2% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.1
8-10 3.8% 1.9% 1.9% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7
7-11 1.7% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 1.7
6-12 0.7% 0.7
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.2% 13.2% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 5.5 5.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 86.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 10.2 1.7 3.4 5.2 1.7 10.3 22.4 43.1 12.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 5.0% 11.0 5.0