Bowling Green
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -0.4 166
Expected Predictive Rating -1.6 187
Pace 70.2 132
Improvement -7.2 361

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 234 C D- C C+ B+
Defense C+ 120 C+ C+ B- C- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 50% 4 C- 56% 239 +5.5 22
2 Pt. Jumpers 38% 167 C- 36% 232 -1.9 273
Three Pointers 34% 324 C+ 35% 132 -3.2 290
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.3 28 C- -1.0 206
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 168
Second Chance D+ 27.4% 268 F+ 0.85 356 D- 0.23 336
Turnovers C 16.9% 176
Freethrows C+ 0.31 159 C 73% 167 C+ 0.23 154
Total Offense C- -2.2 234

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D- 37% 330 D+ 13.0% 296
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 33% 67 D+ 6.9% 296
Three Pointers C+ 87% 132 C 1.0% 203
Total D 49% 310 F+ 8.0% 350

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 204 C+ 56% 124 -1.1 135
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 296 C- 39% 230 -1.3 91
Three Pointers 45% 54 C+ 33% 128 +1.6 267
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.4 248 C+ -1.2 128
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.00 147
Second Chance B- 28.4% 98 C 1.04 208 C+ 0.30 129
Turnovers B- 18.2% 97
Freethrows C- 0.32 244 C+ 72% 130 C- 0.23 235
Total Defense C+ +1.9 120

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 46% 132 C+ 13.0% 92
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 20% 93 C 5.2% 148
Three Pointers C- 86% 246 D+ 0.4% 301
Total C 56% 197 C 5.9% 149

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.5 192 16.9 110
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 30 0.18 209
Improvement -4.1 #342 -3.1 #321

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 193 166 140
Conference Record 8 - 10 9 - 9 10 - 8
Conference Finish 7 5 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 5% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.7
.500 or above 80% 88% 47%
.500 or above in Conference 74% 83% 33%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round4% 5% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Western Michigan (Home) - 82.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 33 - 64 - 11
Quad 412 - 316 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 225 Texas St. W 83 - 48 72% +13  88% 1 - 0 A+ +28 B- +5 A+ F C+ A+ +23 A A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 296 Le Moyne W 83 - 60 83% +6  70% 2 - 0 B+ +12 C+ +3 B- F A+ A +9 B C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 112 @Davidson L 87 - 91 26% -9  1% 2 - 1 C+ +2 B- +5 D+ C+ A+ C- -2 F B A+
 Wed, Nov 19 134 William & Mary L 74 - 82 54% -9  10% 2 - 2 D -9 F -11 F C- F B- +2 C- C+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 330 Bucknell W 71 - 66 84% +7  91% 3 - 2 D+ -6 D- -7 D+ D F C+ +1 F B- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 358 VMI W 81 - 48 92% +22  99% 4 - 2 A- +17 C +0 B- C+ F A+ +19 A+ A- A-
 Mon, Dec 1 92 @Kansas St. W 82 - 66 19% +9  98% 5 - 2 A+ +25 A+ +18 A- A- A+ A- +8 A+ C- F
 Sat, Dec 6 95 Utah Valley L 71 - 82 39% -10  6% 5 - 3 D -8 D+ -4 D+ C+ B+ D+ -4 F A- B+
 Tue, Dec 16 351 Chicago St. W 76 - 55 93% +11  99% 6 - 3 C+ +4 D -5 D+ F A- A +10 A+ B- C
 Sat, Dec 20 208 @Ohio W 68 - 58 48% +9  87% 7 - 3 1 - 0 B +10 D -5 D C- F A+ +16 A+ C A+
 Tue, Dec 30 85 Miami (OH) L 83 - 93 34% -13  12% 7 - 4 1 - 1 D+ -6 C +1 B- D+ C D -6 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 182 @Massachusetts W 101 - 100 OT 42% +0  50% 8 - 4 2 - 1 C+ +3 B +6 B+ F A+ D+ -3 F B- B-
 Tue, Jan 6 145 @Kent St. L 93 - 96 34% -2  22% 8 - 5 2 - 2 C +1 A+ +18 B+ A+ B+ F -17 F F F
 Fri, Jan 9 76 Akron L 67 - 77 32% -11  0% 8 - 6 2 - 3 D+ -5 F -11 C F D B+ +6 A- C+ A-
 Sat, Jan 17 244 Eastern Michigan W 85 - 79 75% +6  77% 9 - 6 3 - 3 C -1 A +13 A+ C+ B- F -14 F C F+
 Tue, Jan 20 284 @Western Michigan W 72 - 54 64% +10  87% 10 - 6 4 - 3 B+ +14 D -4 D+ F C+ A+ +19 A+ B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 169 @Toledo L 72 - 73 39% +1  57% 10 - 7 4 - 4 C +1 C- -2 A- F F B +4 A D- F+
 Tue, Jan 27 213 Buffalo L 78 - 89 70% -5  5% 10 - 8 4 - 5 F+ -17 C +1 D+ A- B F -18 F C+ D-
 Sat, Jan 31 274 @Central Michigan L 59 - 62 62% +4  66% 10 - 9 4 - 6 D+ -7 F -19 F F C+ A+ +13 A+ F C+
 Tue, Feb 3 313 Ball St. W 77 - 52 87% +13  94% 11 - 9 5 - 6 B+ +13 B +7 A+ F+ F+ A +9 A- C- C-
 Sat, Feb 7 140 @Arkansas St. L 54 - 91 33% -21  0% 11 - 10 F -33 F -23 F F F D- -7 F D D-
 Wed, Feb 11 319 @Northern Illinois W 68 - 52 74% +15  94% 12 - 10 6 - 6 B +9 D- -8 C+ F F A+ +17 A+ B+ D-
 Sat, Feb 14 169 Toledo W 80 - 70 62% +6  71% 13 - 10 7 - 6 B- +6 B +6 C C+ A+ C+ +1 A- D- D+
 Tue, Feb 17 145 Kent St. L 71 - 78 57% -3  28% 13 - 11 7 - 7 D -9 F+ -9 F+ F+ D C -0 D A+ F
 Fri, Feb 20 85 @Miami (OH) L 77 - 91 17% -10  6% 13 - 12 7 - 8 C- -4 C- -0 C- D B- C- -3 D D C
 Tue, Feb 24 284 Western Michigan W 81 - 71 82%
 Sat, Feb 28 182 Massachusetts W 79 - 75 65%
 Fri, Mar 6 244 @Eastern Michigan W 70 - 69 53%
Totals 15 - 13 9 - 9 +0 C- -2 A- C- B+ C+ +2 C+ C C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- C- C+ C- 50% 38% 34% B+ C D+ F+ D- C C+ C C+ C+ C+ C- C+ C+ 38% 17% 45% D+ C+ B- C C+ B- C- C+ C-
1.05 56% 36% 35% -1 +1 1.03 27% 0.8 .23 17% .31 73% .23 1.06 56% 39% 33% -1 0 1.00 28% 1.0 .30 18% .32 72% .22
Nov
3		 Texas St. B- A F+ A+ A+ 47% 14% 39% B- A+ D+ F F C+ D- D D- A+ B+ C- A+ A+ 47% 20% 33% F A A+ D A+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.18 71% 29% 50% +14 +2 1.33 25% 0.6 .14 17% .27 69% .19 0.68 50% 40% 18% -12 +1 0.80 14% 1.0 .14 26% .13 43% .06
Nov
9		 Le Moyne C+ F A+ A+ C+ 57% 10% 33% A B- D F F A+ D A+ B- A B+ F A- B+ 35% 11% 54% C- B F A+ C A+ A- F C
1.18 42% 67% 47% +1 +3 1.09 27% 0.4 .11 9% .26 94% .25 0.85 50% 60% 28% -5 +1 0.93 34% 0.7 .25 34% .26 92% .24
Nov
15		 Davidson B- C- D F D+ 49% 30% 21% C+ D+ C B- C+ A+ A+ B- A+ C- D+ F F F 30% 21% 49% C+ F A D B A+ F F+ F
1.10 57% 35% 25% -4 0 0.93 31% 1.1 .33 11% .50 69% .34 1.15 62% 56% 48% +15 -1 1.30 23% 1.2 .27 23% .62 74% .46
Nov
19		 William & Mary F D- A+ F F 54% 8% 38% A F D+ B- C- F A+ A A+ B- D B B- C 43% 6% 51% D C- C+ C C+ A+ F+ F F
0.95 52% 75% 16% -11 +3 0.86 27% 1.1 .30 23% .45 78% .35 1.05 67% 33% 32% +2 +2 1.10 25% 1.1 .28 23% .40 88% .35
Nov
24		 Bucknell D- F C A+ D 42% 11% 47% A- D+ F A+ D F A+ D- A+ C+ D- A+ F F 44% 12% 44% D- F A+ F B- A+ F C+ F
1.03 42% 40% 43% 0 +2 1.04 16% 1.8 .28 22% .48 69% .33 0.96 63% 0% 42% +3 +2 1.12 15% 1.5 .23 26% .39 75% .29
Nov
26		 VMI C B+ A- B+ B- 42% 17% 42% B- B- A+ F C+ F C- C+ C- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 5% 56% F A+ D A+ A- A- F F+ F
1.22 70% 50% 40% +11 +1 1.25 56% 0.8 .42 24% .30 73% .22 0.72 35% 0% 8% -32 +2 0.42 30% 0.5 .14 21% .61 78% .47
Dec
1		 Kansas St. A+ F A+ A+ A- 40% 10% 50% A- A- A C- A- A+ B B- B+ A- A- A+ A+ A+ 49% 14% 37% D A+ D+ C+ C- F F A+ C-
1.28 37% 60% 46% +3 +1 1.10 44% 1.1 .50 12% .34 74% .25 1.03 52% 14% 26% -11 +2 0.84 35% 1.1 .38 9% .38 55% .21
Dec
6		 Utah Valley D+ A+ F+ F D 43% 19% 39% C+ D+ C B- C+ B+ C+ F D+ D+ F F D F 52% 8% 40% D F B- A A- B+ C+ B- B-
0.99 74% 30% 14% -6 +1 0.91 30% 1.1 .33 18% .34 65% .22 1.14 76% 75% 37% +14 +3 1.35 35% 0.9 .31 24% .27 67% .18
Dec
16		 Chicago St. D B- F F D- 58% 2% 40% A+ D+ F D F A- D+ D D A A+ A+ A- A+ 30% 48% 22% A A+ D+ A B- C F A+ F
1.13 67% 0% 29% +1 +4 1.12 23% 1.0 .23 15% .31 72% .23 0.82 33% 25% 27% -16 -4 0.62 30% 0.7 .22 16% .48 63% .30
Dec
20		 Ohio D F B- C+ D- 53% 16% 31% B+ D C+ D C- F A+ A+ A+ A+ F F A+ A+ 26% 13% 62% D+ A+ B- D- C A+ F A- F
1.01 46% 43% 36% -5 +2 0.96 35% 0.9 .32 24% .45 83% .37 0.86 70% 60% 17% -10 0 0.82 25% 1.1 .28 22% .57 63% .36
Dec
30		 Miami (OH) C A- A F C+ 47% 18% 35% B+ B- C- D D+ C A D- B+ D D+ F F F 44% 17% 40% D+ F F D F A+ F+ F F
1.10 69% 50% 26% +3 +1 1.11 28% 0.8 .22 17% .37 70% .26 1.23 67% 50% 47% +14 +1 1.31 31% 1.3 .38 21% .40 92% .37
Jan
3		 Massachusetts B C+ F A+ B 54% 18% 29% B B+ F B+ F A+ A+ D- A+ D+ D B+ F F 54% 12% 35% F F A+ F B- B- F D- F
1.16 63% 30% 44% +6 +1 1.16 14% 1.2 .17 11% .58 67% .39 1.15 64% 33% 50% +11 +2 1.29 20% 1.7 .33 21% .51 71% .36
Jan
6		 Kent St. A+ C- F A+ B 53% 9% 38% A B+ A+ A- A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ F F D- F F 42% 13% 45% D F C F F F A- F C
1.32 56% 25% 44% +4 +3 1.15 44% 1.2 .52 13% .51 87% .44 1.36 68% 43% 42% +10 +1 1.25 34% 1.5 .52 14% .31 89% .28
Jan
9		 Akron F D+ B C+ C 43% 24% 33% C- C D F F D D+ F D- B+ D+ A+ B- A 31% 13% 56% C+ A- C C C+ A- D- C- D-
0.93 55% 42% 35% 0 0 1.02 28% 0.5 .15 21% .25 64% .16 1.07 65% 14% 32% -2 0 0.98 32% 1.3 .41 19% .31 78% .24
Jan
17		 Eastern Michigan A C D- A+ A+ 51% 24% 24% C+ A+ C+ C C+ B- B+ B- A- F D F D F 38% 24% 38% D+ F D- A- C F+ C F D+
1.28 56% 33% 67% +10 0 1.22 32% 1.0 .32 15% .37 76% .28 1.19 63% 58% 37% +8 0 1.18 32% 0.8 .26 14% .24 86% .21
Jan
20		 Western Michigan D D A+ F F+ 58% 6% 36% A+ D+ D F F C+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ 34% 15% 51% D A+ B- A B+ A+ B- D- C
1.08 55% 67% 28% -3 +3 1.02 26% 0.4 .11 12% .46 70% .32 0.81 31% 57% 25% -13 0 0.77 28% 0.8 .23 23% .25 77% .19
Jan
24		 Toledo C- C A+ A+ B+ 67% 8% 25% A+ A- C F F F C- D- D+ B A+ B- C A+ 39% 22% 39% D+ A C+ F D- F+ A F B
1.06 59% 75% 46% +8 +4 1.25 36% 0.2 .07 24% .23 67% .15 1.08 39% 38% 35% -7 0 0.88 28% 1.3 .36 12% .20 92% .18
Jan
27		 Buffalo C C F C D- 55% 12% 33% A- D+ C- A+ A- B C F D F B F F F 40% 10% 50% D- F B+ D C+ D- D D D-
1.17 61% 17% 35% 0 +2 1.06 31% 1.4 .43 15% .26 60% .16 1.33 53% 60% 54% +15 +1 1.35 22% 1.2 .26 13% .38 77% .29
Jan
31		 Central Michigan F F F F F 59% 15% 25% B+ F F F F C+ F F F A+ C A+ A+ A+ 46% 28% 26% D+ A+ C- F F C+ C+ A+ A-
0.84 49% 22% 27% -11 +2 0.85 25% 0.4 .09 16% .20 58% .12 0.88 57% 21% 15% -13 0 0.76 29% 1.5 .44 18% .26 47% .12
Feb
3		 Ball St. B A+ F A+ A+ 42% 21% 37% C+ A+ C- F F+ F+ B- A+ A A C- C- A+ A- 34% 23% 43% B A- A+ F C- C- D A+ B+
1.23 78% 22% 56% +17 0 1.37 32% 0.7 .23 22% .31 93% .29 0.83 56% 36% 15% -13 -1 0.74 16% 1.5 .24 16% .32 47% .15
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Arkansas St. F C F F F 40% 22% 38% C+ F D F F F B+ C+ B D- F A+ F F 37% 8% 56% D F D D+ D D- C- A+ B+
0.72 59% 25% 10% -16 0 0.69 23% 0.1 .03 23% .38 73% .27 1.21 74% 25% 41% +11 +2 1.27 41% 1.1 .44 17% .34 57% .19
Feb
11		 Northern Illinois D- C B C C 56% 14% 30% B C+ F D+ F F F A+ F A+ B+ D- A+ A+ 37% 14% 49% C+ A+ A+ F B+ D- A- F B
0.98 61% 43% 33% +2 +2 1.10 17% 1.0 .17 22% .20 82% .16 0.75 47% 43% 16% -17 +1 0.71 17% 1.0 .17 19% .26 73% .19
Feb
14		 Toledo B F F A+ C- 50% 14% 36% B C F A+ C+ A+ A D+ B+ C+ A+ F D A- 27% 33% 40% A A- D- D D- D+ B+ C- B
1.22 48% 29% 50% +2 +2 1.10 26% 1.4 .37 11% .32 68% .22 1.07 14% 59% 38% -2 -2 0.92 34% 1.1 .37 14% .23 77% .18
Feb
17		 Kent St. F+ F+ D+ F F 59% 6% 35% A+ F+ D F+ F+ D A+ D+ A+ C A- D- F D- 29% 16% 56% C+ D A A+ A+ F F B F
0.98 48% 33% 24% -12 +3 0.86 25% 0.8 .20 18% .60 69% .42 1.08 46% 43% 40% +2 0 1.07 26% 0.3 .08 14% .64 70% .45
Feb
20		 Miami (OH) C- D- F A D+ 43% 14% 43% B+ C- D D D B- D C- D C- B- F F D 33% 13% 54% C D C F D C F A+ D
1.04 52% 25% 40% -1 +1 1.03 24% 0.8 .19 16% .24 73% .18 1.23 59% 57% 43% +10 +1 1.23 24% 1.4 .32 15% .43 67% .29



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 2.9 14.6 17.5 4th
5th 0.8 22.1 13.5 36.3 5th
6th 0.0 8.8 18.7 0.9 28.4 6th
7th 2.1 12.2 1.6 15.9 7th
8th 1.3 0.6 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 3.5 22.3 45.2 29.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 29.0% 5.8% 5.8% 13.3 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.0 27.3
9-9 45.2% 4.2% 4.2% 14.1 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.5 0.0 43.3
8-10 22.3% 2.9% 2.9% 14.9 0.1 0.5 0.0 21.7
7-11 3.5% 1.5% 1.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 3.4
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 13.9 95.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.7% 100.0% 13.3 7.7 60.0 31.8 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 11.0%
Lose Out 3.0%