Bowling Green
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.3#243
Expected Predictive Rating-5.3#264
Pace73.4#55
Improvement+0.4#138

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#177
First Shot+0.0#184
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#186
Layup/Dunks-0.8#215
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#68
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#204
Freethrows-1.0#259
Improvement+1.0#40

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#301
First Shot-4.9#323
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#108
Layups/Dunks-3.7#317
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#149
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#258
Freethrows-0.1#195
Improvement-0.6#269
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 0.9% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 2.3% 3.3% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 28.0% 36.6% 10.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 0.6% 3.7%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 0.7%
First Round0.6% 0.6% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Home) - 66.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 82 - 12
Quad 49 - 612 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 168   Air Force W 62-58 44%     1 - 0 +1.3 -11.0 +12.4
  Nov 11, 2022 249   @ Oakland W 87-82 41%     2 - 0 +3.0 +10.0 -7.1
  Nov 15, 2022 201   @ Wright St. L 71-80 30%     2 - 1 -7.9 -7.7 +0.6
  Nov 19, 2022 147   @ St. Bonaventure L 68-81 22%     2 - 2 -9.1 -2.2 -6.8
  Nov 22, 2022 127   @ Notre Dame L 66-82 19%     2 - 3 -11.0 -4.0 -8.0
  Nov 26, 2022 270   Southern Indiana L 57-69 65%     2 - 4 -20.3 -22.1 +1.9
  Nov 29, 2022 221   Queens L 66-72 55%     2 - 5 -11.5 -13.2 +1.7
  Dec 03, 2022 300   Morgan St. W 86-76 72%     3 - 5 -0.4 +5.0 -5.9
  Dec 11, 2022 342   @ Hampton W 86-72 68%     4 - 5 +5.0 +3.4 +1.0
  Dec 14, 2022 203   @ Norfolk St. L 75-81 30%     4 - 6 -4.9 +1.1 -6.1
  Dec 17, 2022 296   Tennessee Martin L 67-75 71%     4 - 7 -17.9 -12.9 -4.8
  Jan 03, 2023 302   @ Eastern Michigan W 91-65 53%     5 - 7 1 - 0 +21.0 +9.2 +10.6
  Jan 07, 2023 153   Ohio W 88-79 42%     6 - 7 2 - 0 +6.9 +9.7 -3.0
  Jan 10, 2023 108   Akron L 70-74 31%     6 - 8 2 - 1 -3.0 -0.6 -2.5
  Jan 14, 2023 285   @ Western Michigan L 92-108 48%     6 - 9 2 - 2 -19.9 +11.6 -31.0
  Jan 17, 2023 183   @ Buffalo L 71-100 27%     6 - 10 2 - 3 -26.8 -6.8 -17.5
  Jan 21, 2023 297   Miami (OH) W 83-73 71%     7 - 10 3 - 3 +0.0 +0.8 -1.0
  Jan 24, 2023 299   @ Central Michigan W 83-61 53%     8 - 10 4 - 3 +17.1 +12.0 +5.6
  Jan 28, 2023 104   @ Toledo L 77-91 15%     8 - 11 4 - 4 -7.1 +0.8 -7.8
  Jan 31, 2023 155   Ball St. L 60-69 42%     8 - 12 4 - 5 -11.2 -12.3 +0.7
  Feb 04, 2023 271   Northern Illinois W 77-73 66%    
  Feb 07, 2023 73   @ Kent St. L 65-79 9%    
  Feb 11, 2023 155   @ Ball St. L 72-80 23%    
  Feb 14, 2023 299   Central Michigan W 76-70 73%    
  Feb 18, 2023 104   Toledo L 81-87 31%    
  Feb 21, 2023 297   @ Miami (OH) W 79-78 50%    
  Feb 25, 2023 73   Kent St. L 68-77 22%    
  Feb 28, 2023 302   Eastern Michigan W 83-77 73%    
  Mar 03, 2023 153   @ Ohio L 74-82 23%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 3.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 5.5 4.4 0.6 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 8.0 8.8 1.4 0.0 18.9 6th
7th 0.4 7.8 13.4 3.0 0.1 24.7 7th
8th 0.2 5.5 13.7 4.7 0.2 24.3 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 6.6 2.7 0.1 10.7 9th
10th 0.1 2.2 1.9 0.1 4.4 10th
11th 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.7 4.7 14.6 25.1 27.0 17.9 7.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 18.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 3.6% 3.6% 15.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 1.9% 2.8% 2.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 1.9
10-8 7.8% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 7.6
9-9 17.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 17.7
8-10 27.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 26.7
7-11 25.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 24.9
6-12 14.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 14.5
5-13 4.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.7
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%