Bowling Green
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.1 #125
Expected Predictive Rating +1.8 #142
Pace 70.8 #137
Improvement -3.9 #346

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #127 C+ B- C- B A-
Defense #134 C D- B- B+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #7 1.14 #208 +5.2 #36
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #282 0.82 #93 -1.3 #240
Three Pointers 36% #282 1.06 #122 -1.6 #241
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #122 +2.3 #120
Freethrows 19.4 #82 72% #196 14.0 #98
Second Chance 30.9% #183 0.97 #270 0.30 #223
Turnovers 15.1% #89
Total Offense +1.3 #127

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #145 1.17 #191 -1.2 #223
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #305 0.74 #163 +1.7 #68
Three Pointers 44% #107 0.94 #104 +0.1 #181
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #156 +0.6 #154
Freethrows 20.2 #315 74% #255 15.0 #43
Second Chance 26.8% #63 1.04 #181 0.28 #83
Turnovers 19.6% #47
Total Defense +0.8 #134

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.7% #32 1.4% #294
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.6% #152 -2.5% #132
Possession Length 17.7 #218 16.7 #101
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #38 0.16 #146
Improvement +1.5 #82 -5.4 #364

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.0% 13.1% 8.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.7 13.0
.500 or above 95.2% 98.5% 93.2%
.500 or above in Conference 91.4% 97.1% 87.9%
Conference Champion 7.1% 15.4% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round10.0% 13.1% 8.2%
Second Round0.9% 1.2% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Akron (Home) - 37.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 0
Quad 21 - 32 - 4
Quad 35 - 67 - 10
Quad 412 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 267 Texas St. W 83-48 85%     13.0   1 - 0 +26.0 +5.7 +20.1
  Sun, Nov 9 309 Le Moyne W 83-60 89%     6.0   2 - 0 +11.5 +2.2 +9.3
  Sat, Nov 15 126 @Davidson L 87-91 39%     -8.8   2 - 1 +1.0 +8.0 -6.5
  Wed, Nov 19 119 William & Mary L 74-82 59%     -9.2   2 - 2 -8.1 -5.7 -1.6
  Mon, Nov 24 316 Bucknell W 71-66 86%     11.8   3 - 2 -4.3 -2.4 -1.8
  Wed, Nov 26 331 VMI W 81-48 88%     22.0   4 - 2 +22.4 +5.8 +18.2
  Mon, Dec 1 74 @Kansas St. W 82-66 20%     8.7   5 - 2 +26.9 +21.0 +7.3
  Sat, Dec 6 98 Utah Valley L 71-82 50%     -10.0   5 - 3 -8.8 -1.1 -7.4
  Tue, Dec 16 349 Chicago St. W 76-55 94%     10.5   6 - 3 +5.5 -1.7 +8.1
  Sat, Dec 20 175 @Ohio W 68-58 50%     8.6   7 - 3 1 - 0 +12.0 -1.2 +13.5
  Tue, Dec 30 101 Miami (OH) L 83-93 50%     -13.3   7 - 4 1 - 1 -7.9 +3.6 -10.7
  Sat, Jan 3 171 @Massachusetts W 101-100 OT 50%     0.2   8 - 4 2 - 1 +3.2 +11.0 -8.0
  Tue, Jan 6 139 @Kent St. L 93-96 42%     -1.7   8 - 5 2 - 2 +1.2 +19.9 -18.7
  Fri, Jan 9 68 Akron L 82-85 38%    
  Sat, Jan 17 195 Eastern Michigan W 76-69 76%    
  Tue, Jan 20 270 @Western Michigan W 80-75 69%    
  Sat, Jan 24 173 @Toledo W 79-78 50%    
  Tue, Jan 27 182 Buffalo W 80-73 73%    
  Sat, Jan 31 324 @Central Michigan W 78-69 80%    
  Tue, Feb 3 318 Ball St. W 78-64 91%    
  Sat, Feb 7 128 @Arkansas St. L 80-83 40%    
  Wed, Feb 11 327 @Northern Illinois W 80-71 80%    
  Sat, Feb 14 173 Toledo W 82-76 71%    
  Tue, Feb 17 139 Kent St. W 84-80 64%    
  Sat, Feb 21 101 @Miami (OH) L 76-82 29%    
  Tue, Feb 24 270 Western Michigan W 83-72 85%    
  Sat, Feb 28 171 Massachusetts W 81-75 71%    
  Fri, Mar 6 195 @Eastern Michigan W 73-72 55%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.8 2.7 0.6 7.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 2.0 5.5 5.0 1.0 0.0 13.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 2.5 8.4 6.9 1.6 0.1 19.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 8.2 7.3 1.7 0.1 19.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 5.7 6.8 1.4 0.1 15.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.7 5.6 1.4 0.1 11.1 6th
7th 0.2 1.6 3.6 1.4 0.1 6.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.1 1.2 0.1 4.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.7 0.1 2.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.5 4.9 9.6 14.7 19.0 19.1 15.0 9.6 3.7 0.6 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 98.4% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
15-3 72.2% 2.7    1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0
14-4 29.7% 2.8    0.7 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 6.0% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.1% 7.1 2.7 2.8 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.6% 32.5% 32.5% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
15-3 3.7% 23.5% 23.5% 12.1 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.8
14-4 9.6% 19.3% 19.3% 12.4 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.1 7.7
13-5 15.0% 13.6% 13.6% 12.6 0.0 0.9 1.0 0.1 13.0
12-6 19.1% 10.8% 10.8% 13.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 17.1
11-7 19.0% 7.6% 7.6% 13.3 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 17.5
10-8 14.7% 6.6% 6.6% 13.6 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 13.8
9-9 9.6% 4.7% 4.7% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.2
8-10 4.9% 2.0% 2.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.8
7-11 2.5% 0.8% 0.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5
6-12 0.9% 0.9
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.3 3.2 4.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 90.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.9 7.1 85.7 7.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%