Bowling Green
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.0 #147
Expected Predictive Rating -1.2 #191
Pace 70.2 #138
Improvement -4.8 #345

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #185 C+ D C C+ B+
Defense #123 C+ C+ B C- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 50% #4 1.13 #214 +6.1 #18
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #264 0.75 #178 -1.5 #262
Three Pointers 33% #334 1.10 #63 -2.7 #277
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #120 +1.9 #120
Freethrows 0.31 #157 73% #155 0.23 #152
Second Chance 28.7% #236 0.85 #356 0.24 #322
Turnovers 16.5% #153
Total Offense -0.7 #185

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #166 1.15 #159 -0.1 #179
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #302 0.76 #177 +1.6 #70
Three Pointers 44% #81 0.96 #97 -0.5 #205
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #144 +1.0 #143
Freethrows 0.33 #248 73% #217 0.24 #250
Second Chance 28.2% #87 1.06 #229 0.30 #140
Turnovers 19.2% #59
Total Defense +1.7 #123

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.7% #27 1.2% #277
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.9% #160 -3.0% #118
Possession Length 17.5 #208 16.8 #97
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #16 0.18 #195
Improvement -1.9 #291 -2.9 #323

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 6.4% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.1 13.5
.500 or above 86.1% 96.9% 77.4%
.500 or above in Conference 74.2% 77.4% 71.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round5.8% 6.4% 5.2%
Second Round0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Away) - 44.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 34 - 65 - 10
Quad 411 - 316 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 256 Texas St. W 83 - 48 81% +13  1 - 0 +27 +8 A+ F C+ +19 B+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 296 Le Moyne W 83 - 60 86% +6  2 - 0 +12 +4 B- F A+ +8 B- C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 111 @Davidson L 87 - 91 29% -9  2 - 1 +3 +8 D+ B- A+ -5 F B A
 Wed, Nov 19 141 William & Mary L 74 - 82 60% -9  2 - 2 -10 -8 F C D- -1 C- B- A
 Mon, Nov 24 313 Bucknell W 71 - 66 83% +7  3 - 2 -4 -4 D+ D D- +0 F B- A
 Wed, Nov 26 359 VMI W 81 - 48 92% +22  4 - 2 +18 +4 B C F +16 A+ A- B+
 Mon, Dec 1 88 @Kansas St. W 82 - 66 22% +9  5 - 2 +25 +21 A- A- A+ +6 A+ C- F
 Sat, Dec 6 100 Utah Valley L 71 - 82 47% -10  5 - 3 -9 -1 D+ C B -8 F A- B
 Tue, Dec 16 357 Chicago St. W 76 - 55 95% +11  6 - 3 +4 -2 C- F A +7 A+ B- C
 Sat, Dec 20 193 @Ohio W 68 - 58 50% +9  7 - 3 1 - 0 +11 -2 D+ C- F +14 A+ C A+
 Tue, Dec 30 90 Miami (OH) L 83 - 93 42% -13  7 - 4 1 - 1 -7 +3 C+ C- C+ -9 F+ F A
 Sat, Jan 3 176 @Massachusetts W 101 - 100 OT 46% +0  8 - 4 2 - 1 +3 +9 B F A+ -6 F B- B-
 Tue, Jan 6 139 @Kent St. L 93 - 96 37% -2  8 - 5 2 - 2 +1 +21 B+ A+ B+ -20 F F F
 Fri, Jan 9 63 Akron L 67 - 77 32% -11  8 - 6 2 - 3 -4 -7 C F C- +3 A- B- B
 Sat, Jan 17 230 Eastern Michigan W 85 - 79 77% +6  9 - 6 3 - 3 -1 +16 A+ C+ B- -16 F C D-
 Tue, Jan 20 281 @Western Michigan W 72 - 54 68% +10  10 - 6 4 - 3 +14 -1 C- F B- +16 A+ B A
 Sat, Jan 24 159 @Toledo L 72 - 73 43% +1  10 - 7 4 - 4 +2 +1 A- F F +1 A D F+
 Tue, Jan 27 196 Buffalo L 78 - 89 73% -5  10 - 8 4 - 5 -16 +3 D+ A- B -20 F B- D
 Sat, Jan 31 292 @Central Michigan L 59 - 62 70% +4  10 - 9 4 - 6 -8 -17 F F C +9 A+ F C
 Tue, Feb 3 305 Ball St. W 77 - 52 87% +13  11 - 9 5 - 6 +14 +9 A+ F+ D- +8 A- D+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 169 @Arkansas St. L 78 - 79 45%
 Wed, Feb 11 310 @Northern Illinois W 76 - 69 74%
 Sat, Feb 14 159 Toledo W 79 - 75 65%
 Tue, Feb 17 139 Kent St. W 79 - 76 60%
 Sat, Feb 21 90 @Miami (OH) L 75 - 83 23%
 Tue, Feb 24 281 Western Michigan W 82 - 71 84%
 Sat, Feb 28 176 Massachusetts W 80 - 75 68%
 Fri, Mar 6 230 @Eastern Michigan W 71 - 69 57%
Totals 16 - 12 9 - 9 +1 -1 C+ D C +2 C+ C+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.7 1.8 5.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.7 12.8 11.0 1.6 27.0 4th
5th 0.6 11.0 12.1 1.5 0.0 25.2 5th
6th 0.1 5.8 12.9 1.8 0.0 20.6 6th
7th 0.0 2.1 8.8 2.6 0.0 13.5 7th
8th 0.4 3.4 2.1 0.1 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 0.9 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.2 1.8 6.6 17.2 28.2 27.4 15.3 3.4 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 3.4% 11.0% 11.0% 12.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 3.0
11-7 15.3% 10.4% 10.4% 12.9 0.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 13.7
10-8 27.4% 6.5% 6.5% 13.2 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.0 25.6
9-9 28.2% 4.8% 4.8% 13.6 0.0 0.7 0.6 0.1 26.8
8-10 17.2% 3.2% 3.2% 14.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 16.7
7-11 6.6% 1.5% 1.5% 15.3 0.1 0.0 6.5
6-12 1.8% 1.8
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 13.3 94.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%