Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.7 #308
Expected Predictive Rating -8.2 #299
Pace 69.8 #159
Improvement +2.4 #82

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #323 D+ C- F C+ B
Defense #263 D+ D+ C+ D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #139 1.03 #320 -1.7 #242
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #334 0.70 #272 -3.5 #337
Three Pointers 48% #49 0.97 #247 +2.2 #107
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #266 -2.9 #265
Freethrows 0.35 #48 68% #323 0.23 #124
Second Chance 34.0% #85 0.88 #350 0.30 #218
Turnovers 21.9% #363
Total Offense -5.9 #323

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #48 1.25 #292 -5.1 #340
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #317 0.80 #254 +1.5 #74
Three Pointers 41% #199 1.03 #211 -0.1 #181
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #295 -3.6 #295
Freethrows 0.34 #304 72% #156 0.25 #294
Second Chance 32.8% #281 1.13 #295 0.37 #298
Turnovers 17.1% #130
Total Defense -2.8 #263

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.3% #40 2.0% #339
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.9% #315 5.1% #278
Possession Length 18.0 #248 16.9 #112
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #244 0.21 #316
Improvement -2.8 #323 +5.2 #3

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.3% 10.0% 0.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 26.0% 6.2% 26.9%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (OH) (Away) - 4.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 31 - 81 - 14
Quad 47 - 68 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 361 Louisiana Monroe W 102 - 82 82% +10  1 - 0 +1 +14 D+ A+ F -14 F F+ C
 Fri, Nov 7 39 @Wisconsin L 72 - 97 2% -19  1 - 1 -9 +2 A+ F F -10 C+ F C
 Mon, Nov 10 66 @Grand Canyon L 59 - 88 4% -17  1 - 2 -17 -6 D B+ F -10 D- F A-
 Tue, Nov 18 111 @Northern Iowa L 57 - 70 9% -3  1 - 3 -7 -0 B D+ F -8 F C- A+
 Fri, Nov 21 282 @Loyola Chicago W 76 - 59 32% +9  2 - 3 +13 +11 B+ B- F +5 C- A- B
 Tue, Nov 25 172 @Austin Peay L 59 - 77 16% -7  2 - 4 -16 -6 F C- B -11 F D- C-
 Tue, Dec 2 238 Lindenwood L 64 - 99 45% -22  2 - 5 -42 -14 D+ F F -27 C- F F
 Sat, Dec 6 126 @Bradley L 55 - 84 11% -14  2 - 6 -24 -18 F C+ F -5 F C+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 181 @Elon L 79 - 85 18% +4  2 - 7 -5 +2 D+ C- D- -7 C- A D-
 Sat, Dec 20 303 Central Michigan W 74 - 73 60% -10  3 - 7 1 - 0 -10 -0 D- B+ F -10 D+ F B
 Wed, Dec 31 185 Buffalo L 67 - 81 36% -7  3 - 8 1 - 1 -19 -10 D- F F+ -9 D F A
 Sat, Jan 3 144 @Kent St. L 73 - 77 12% -9  3 - 9 1 - 2 -0 -2 A- C- F +2 C+ B C
 Tue, Jan 6 163 Toledo L 61 - 75 31% -11  3 - 10 1 - 3 -17 -18 D- D F +0 D+ A+ B+
 Tue, Jan 13 240 @Eastern Michigan L 59 - 77 24% -3  3 - 11 1 - 4 -19 -15 F+ F D- -4 D+ A- D-
 Sat, Jan 17 171 Massachusetts W 70 - 68 32% +3  4 - 11 2 - 4 -2 -7 F+ D D +5 B+ A- A+
 Tue, Jan 20 214 @Ohio L 77 - 80 21% -5  4 - 12 2 - 5 -3 +1 B- D- F -4 D D- B+
 Sat, Jan 24 297 @Ball St. L 53 - 58 35% -6  4 - 13 2 - 6 -10 -12 F C C- +2 C- C- D+
 Tue, Jan 27 274 Western Michigan W 85 - 65 53% +12  5 - 13 3 - 6 +11 +19 A+ B- C- -5 C+ B- C
 Sat, Jan 31 93 @Miami (OH) L 70 - 88 5%
 Sat, Feb 7 276 @Georgia St. L 70 - 75 31%
 Wed, Feb 11 146 Bowling Green L 71 - 77 28%
 Sat, Feb 14 303 @Central Michigan L 71 - 74 37%
 Tue, Feb 17 185 @Buffalo L 70 - 80 18%
 Sat, Feb 21 214 Ohio L 74 - 76 41%
 Tue, Feb 24 163 @Toledo L 71 - 82 15%
 Sat, Feb 28 297 Ball St. W 70 - 68 57%
 Tue, Mar 3 144 Kent St. L 74 - 81 27%
 Fri, Mar 6 60 @Akron L 69 - 90 3%
Totals 8 - 20 5 - 13 -9 -6 D+ C- F -3 D+ D+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 4th
5th 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 1.9 0.2 3.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 5.0 1.2 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 1.2 8.8 4.9 0.2 15.0 9th
10th 0.4 8.2 10.4 0.9 20.0 10th
11th 0.1 5.6 13.8 3.4 0.0 22.9 11th
12th 2.3 11.5 5.5 0.3 19.6 12th
13th 5.0 4.2 0.4 0.0 9.6 13th
Total 7.4 21.6 29.1 23.9 12.1 4.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.2
9-9 1.1% 1.1
8-10 4.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.5
7-11 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.1
6-12 23.9% 23.9
5-13 29.1% 29.1
4-14 21.6% 21.6
3-15 7.4% 7.4
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.6%