Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.4#312
Expected Predictive Rating-6.0#256
Pace65.2#278
Improvement-2.1#324

Offense
Total Offense-6.3#335
First Shot-5.2#316
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#250
Layup/Dunks-5.3#331
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#277
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#97
Freethrows-0.5#225
Improvement-0.6#243

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#246
First Shot-1.1#212
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#248
Layups/Dunks-2.3#257
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#30
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#141
Freethrows-2.6#311
Improvement-1.5#304
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 n/a
.500 or above 1.3% 1.5% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 5.1% 5.6% 3.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 36.9% 35.4% 42.6%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Illinois (Home) - 79.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 32 - 93 - 17
Quad 45 - 68 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 145   @ Washington W 71-64 12%     1 - 0 +11.6 -3.8 +14.8
  Nov 12, 2021 34   @ Indiana L 49-85 3%     1 - 1 -21.2 -17.9 -1.6
  Nov 18, 2021 132   @ Missouri L 37-54 10%     1 - 2 -11.7 -25.8 +11.7
  Nov 21, 2021 144   Boston University L 58-76 17%     1 - 3 -16.3 -7.2 -11.6
  Nov 22, 2021 289   Arkansas Little Rock L 60-67 44%     1 - 4 -13.9 -12.6 -1.5
  Nov 27, 2021 62   @ Marquette L 66-80 5%     1 - 5 -3.4 -6.2 +4.0
  Dec 01, 2021 347   Eastern Illinois W 69-61 80%    
  Dec 04, 2021 113   @ Dayton L 56-71 8%    
  Dec 13, 2021 355   @ Chicago St. W 70-63 73%    
  Dec 19, 2021 252   @ Illinois-Chicago L 62-68 28%    
  Dec 22, 2021 174   Indiana St. L 66-71 33%    
  Dec 28, 2021 214   Ball St. L 69-72 38%    
  Jan 01, 2022 165   @ Akron L 58-69 15%    
  Jan 04, 2022 72   Buffalo L 68-80 14%    
  Jan 08, 2022 117   @ Toledo L 63-77 10%    
  Jan 11, 2022 137   @ Kent St. L 59-72 11%    
  Jan 15, 2022 260   Eastern Michigan W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 18, 2022 224   Bowling Green L 69-72 41%    
  Jan 22, 2022 136   @ Miami (OH) L 60-73 11%    
  Jan 25, 2022 76   @ Ohio L 60-78 6%    
  Jan 29, 2022 304   Central Michigan W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 01, 2022 296   @ Western Michigan L 64-68 36%    
  Feb 05, 2022 224   @ Bowling Green L 66-75 22%    
  Feb 08, 2022 165   Akron L 61-66 32%    
  Feb 12, 2022 117   Toledo L 66-74 23%    
  Feb 15, 2022 214   @ Ball St. L 66-75 22%    
  Feb 19, 2022 136   Miami (OH) L 63-70 25%    
  Feb 22, 2022 260   @ Eastern Michigan L 66-72 30%    
  Feb 26, 2022 72   @ Buffalo L 65-83 5%    
  Mar 01, 2022 137   Kent St. L 62-69 26%    
  Mar 04, 2022 76   Ohio L 63-75 15%    
Projected Record 8 - 23 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.6 5th
6th 0.2 0.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 2.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.3 0.6 0.1 5.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 2.9 3.0 0.8 0.1 8.1 8th
9th 0.6 2.5 4.8 3.9 1.4 0.1 13.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 3.8 6.9 5.1 1.8 0.1 18.7 10th
11th 0.4 2.0 6.1 8.7 5.4 1.3 0.1 24.0 11th
12th 1.7 5.2 7.5 6.9 3.3 0.7 0.0 25.3 12th
Total 1.7 5.5 9.6 13.8 16.4 15.6 12.5 9.2 6.4 4.2 2.8 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 24.4% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 24.4% 24.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.3% 0.3
12-8 0.7% 2.9% 2.9% 15.0 0.0 0.7
11-9 1.2% 1.2
10-10 2.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.8
9-11 4.2% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 4.1
8-12 6.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.4
7-13 9.2% 9.2
6-14 12.5% 12.5
5-15 15.6% 15.6
4-16 16.4% 16.4
3-17 13.8% 13.8
2-18 9.6% 9.6
1-19 5.5% 5.5
0-20 1.7% 1.7
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%