Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.7#271
Expected Predictive Rating-2.9#226
Pace69.5#137
Improvement+2.1#6

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#279
First Shot-1.5#232
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#313
Layup/Dunks-0.3#184
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#181
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#227
Freethrows-0.2#189
Improvement+1.5#13

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#247
First Shot+0.5#161
After Offensive Rebounds-2.9#356
Layups/Dunks-1.0#226
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#107
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#146
Freethrows-0.1#200
Improvement+0.6#88
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 4.6% 10.4% 1.7%
.500 or above in Conference 61.5% 81.3% 51.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bowling Green (Away) - 33.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 31 - 73 - 12
Quad 49 - 512 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 50   @ Northwestern L 46-63 5%     0 - 1 -4.4 -14.2 +8.2
  Nov 17, 2022 172   @ Georgia Tech L 50-68 21%     0 - 2 -15.3 -21.4 +6.6
  Nov 22, 2022 82   Sam Houston St. L 54-88 13%     0 - 3 -27.4 -15.8 -10.6
  Nov 23, 2022 363   LIU Brooklyn W 86-61 88%     1 - 3 +6.7 +3.0 +2.8
  Nov 26, 2022 160   @ Northern Iowa L 76-83 20%     1 - 4 -3.9 +0.5 -3.9
  Nov 30, 2022 343   @ Eastern Illinois W 90-70 63%     2 - 4 +11.0 +13.2 -2.4
  Dec 02, 2022 309   @ Idaho L 47-84 48%     2 - 5 -42.3 -32.1 -9.9
  Dec 12, 2022 13   @ Gonzaga L 67-88 3%     2 - 6 -3.4 +2.7 -7.0
  Dec 17, 2022 74   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 63-90 8%     2 - 7 -17.2 -7.4 -7.2
  Dec 20, 2022 336   Albany L 78-83 77%     2 - 8 -18.4 -7.0 -11.1
  Dec 22, 2022 117   @ Indiana St. W 67-57 15%     3 - 8 +15.5 -4.4 +19.6
  Jan 03, 2023 108   @ Akron L 51-76 13%     3 - 9 0 - 1 -18.6 -15.9 -3.7
  Jan 07, 2023 183   @ Buffalo L 62-80 23%     3 - 10 0 - 2 -15.8 -7.4 -9.0
  Jan 10, 2023 299   Central Michigan W 73-54 67%     4 - 10 1 - 2 +8.6 -0.6 +9.8
  Jan 14, 2023 104   Toledo L 67-84 25%     4 - 11 1 - 3 -15.6 -12.6 -2.6
  Jan 17, 2023 297   @ Miami (OH) W 81-77 46%     5 - 11 2 - 3 -0.6 +1.6 -2.2
  Jan 21, 2023 302   @ Eastern Michigan W 88-67 47%     6 - 11 3 - 3 +16.0 +9.7 +6.1
  Jan 24, 2023 73   Kent St. W 86-76 17%     7 - 11 4 - 3 +14.4 +18.9 -4.3
  Jan 28, 2023 155   Ball St. L 69-87 37%     7 - 12 4 - 4 -20.2 -3.1 -17.9
  Jan 31, 2023 285   @ Western Michigan W 73-59 43%     8 - 12 5 - 4 +10.1 -1.4 +12.3
  Feb 04, 2023 243   @ Bowling Green L 73-77 34%    
  Feb 07, 2023 153   Ohio L 71-75 37%    
  Feb 11, 2023 285   Western Michigan W 74-70 64%    
  Feb 14, 2023 155   @ Ball St. L 67-76 19%    
  Feb 18, 2023 297   Miami (OH) W 76-72 66%    
  Feb 21, 2023 153   @ Ohio L 69-78 19%    
  Feb 25, 2023 299   @ Central Michigan L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 28, 2023 183   Buffalo L 75-77 42%    
  Mar 03, 2023 302   Eastern Michigan W 78-73 68%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.4 5.8 2.0 0.1 0.0 13.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 10.0 12.7 4.3 0.3 0.0 28.5 5th
6th 0.5 7.9 11.9 2.8 0.1 23.2 6th
7th 0.1 4.0 9.6 3.0 0.1 16.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 6.0 2.7 0.2 10.1 8th
9th 0.1 2.0 1.6 0.1 3.8 9th
10th 0.2 0.8 0.1 1.1 10th
11th 0.2 0.1 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.5 4.3 12.2 21.5 25.7 20.1 11.0 3.7 0.8 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 14.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 0.1
13-5 0.8% 2.2% 2.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.8
12-6 3.7% 0.6% 0.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 3.7
11-7 11.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 10.9
10-8 20.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 20.0
9-9 25.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 25.6
8-10 21.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 21.5
7-11 12.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.2
6-12 4.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.3
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1%
Lose Out 0.5%