Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.1#163
Expected Predictive Rating+10.0#57
Pace76.9#23
Improvement-1.7#319

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#107
First Shot+5.2#53
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#322
Layup/Dunks+1.4#117
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#167
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#131
Freethrows+2.0#63
Improvement+0.3#141

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#233
First Shot-0.4#184
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#289
Layups/Dunks-3.6#298
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#227
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#104
Freethrows+1.3#108
Improvement-2.0#342
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.1% 9.8% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.4 13.9
.500 or above 76.0% 87.9% 68.6%
.500 or above in Conference 74.1% 80.4% 70.1%
Conference Champion 9.3% 12.0% 7.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 1.0% 2.2%
First Four0.5% 0.3% 0.6%
First Round7.9% 9.7% 6.8%
Second Round0.7% 1.0% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Home) - 38.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 36 - 47 - 10
Quad 49 - 316 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 5   @ Marquette L 70-92 4%     0 - 1 -0.8 +3.1 -3.0
  Nov 11, 2023 116   Appalachian St. W 91-78 49%     1 - 1 +13.5 +9.6 +2.3
  Nov 17, 2023 185   @ Georgia St. W 70-64 43%     2 - 1 +7.8 -3.6 +11.3
  Nov 18, 2023 240   Arkansas Little Rock W 98-93 66%     3 - 1 +0.9 +6.9 -6.7
  Nov 25, 2023 181   @ DePaul W 89-79 43%     4 - 1 +12.0 +13.3 -1.8
  Nov 27, 2023 63   @ Northwestern L 67-89 15%     4 - 2 -10.6 +3.4 -15.3
  Dec 05, 2023 85   Indiana St. L 81-84 39%    
  Dec 09, 2023 245   @ Monmouth W 78-77 54%    
  Dec 21, 2023 110   Northern Iowa L 78-79 47%    
  Dec 29, 2023 38   @ Iowa L 81-95 10%    
  Jan 02, 2024 114   Akron L 75-76 48%    
  Jan 06, 2024 121   @ Ohio L 78-84 29%    
  Jan 09, 2024 283   @ Western Michigan W 77-74 64%    
  Jan 13, 2024 220   Bowling Green W 84-78 70%    
  Jan 16, 2024 107   Kent St. L 77-78 47%    
  Jan 23, 2024 109   Toledo L 83-84 48%    
  Jan 27, 2024 271   @ Ball St. W 79-76 60%    
  Jan 30, 2024 313   @ Central Michigan W 79-73 69%    
  Feb 03, 2024 291   Eastern Michigan W 82-72 81%    
  Feb 06, 2024 275   @ Miami (OH) W 79-76 61%    
  Feb 13, 2024 312   Buffalo W 87-75 85%    
  Feb 17, 2024 107   @ Kent St. L 74-81 28%    
  Feb 20, 2024 271   Ball St. W 82-73 78%    
  Feb 24, 2024 121   Ohio W 82-81 50%    
  Feb 27, 2024 109   @ Toledo L 80-87 28%    
  Mar 02, 2024 114   @ Akron L 72-78 29%    
  Mar 05, 2024 313   Central Michigan W 82-70 85%    
  Mar 08, 2024 312   @ Buffalo W 84-78 68%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.2 2.7 1.6 0.4 0.1 9.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.8 5.2 3.1 0.9 0.1 12.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.1 5.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 12.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.8 6.3 3.4 0.4 0.0 14.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.6 6.7 3.0 0.3 13.9 5th
6th 0.2 2.5 5.9 2.5 0.5 0.0 11.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 2.1 4.3 2.7 0.4 0.0 9.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.2 2.3 0.4 0.0 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 4.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.2 2.8 4.1 7.5 9.8 13.0 13.9 13.4 12.4 8.9 6.7 3.5 1.7 0.4 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 92.7% 1.6    1.5 0.1
15-3 75.8% 2.7    1.7 1.0 0.0
14-4 47.7% 3.2    1.3 1.4 0.5 0.0
13-5 13.1% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.3% 9.3 5.2 3.0 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 42.5% 35.0% 7.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.5%
17-1 0.4% 41.2% 40.3% 0.9% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.6%
16-2 1.7% 24.4% 21.5% 2.8% 12.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.3 3.6%
15-3 3.5% 24.6% 24.6% 12.7 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.7
14-4 6.7% 15.5% 15.5% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 5.6
13-5 8.9% 14.3% 14.3% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.7
12-6 12.4% 10.2% 10.2% 13.6 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 11.2
11-7 13.4% 7.8% 7.8% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 12.4
10-8 13.9% 5.9% 5.9% 14.5 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.0 13.1
9-9 13.0% 5.2% 5.2% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 12.3
8-10 9.8% 3.9% 3.9% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 9.4
7-11 7.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 7.4
6-12 4.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 4.0
5-13 2.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.8
4-14 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.1% 8.1% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.5 2.1 1.5 0.6 91.9 0.1%