Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.4#270
Expected Predictive Rating-6.7#284
Pace66.1#251
Improvement-1.4#251

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#242
First Shot-2.5#252
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#174
Layup/Dunks-4.8#336
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#109
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#178
Freethrows+1.2#83
Improvement-2.3#303

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#262
First Shot-2.2#254
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#255
Layups/Dunks-5.1#334
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#235
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#105
Freethrows+1.4#80
Improvement+0.9#131
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 2.0% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 4.5% 11.7% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 4.5% 11.7% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.3% 1.3% 1.3%
First Round1.1% 1.4% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Michigan (Away) - 38.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 60 - 9
Quad 413 - 713 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2023 271   Old Dominion W 73-68 61%     1 - 0 -3.1 -1.4 -1.8
  Nov 18, 2023 218   @ Evansville L 50-74 31%     1 - 1 -24.3 -21.9 -2.9
  Nov 21, 2023 287   South Carolina Upstate W 75-58 65%     2 - 1 +7.7 +4.2 +4.9
  Nov 24, 2023 340   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 92-74 81%     3 - 1 +3.1 +12.1 -8.6
  Nov 28, 2023 229   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 64-90 32%     3 - 2 -26.7 -5.7 -23.0
  Dec 02, 2023 310   Bellarmine W 67-58 71%     4 - 2 -2.0 -7.2 +5.8
  Dec 06, 2023 353   @ Detroit Mercy W 68-65 74%     5 - 2 -9.0 -12.4 +3.4
  Dec 10, 2023 291   SIU Edwardsville W 83-71 65%     6 - 2 +2.5 +12.6 -9.0
  Dec 16, 2023 55   Indiana St. L 72-83 9%     6 - 3 -1.5 +1.3 -2.7
  Dec 21, 2023 60   @ Minnesota L 63-80 6%     6 - 4 -5.1 +0.7 -7.3
  Jan 02, 2024 170   @ Kent St. L 69-82 23%     6 - 5 0 - 1 -10.7 -0.7 -10.5
  Jan 06, 2024 264   Central Michigan L 65-71 60%     6 - 6 0 - 2 -13.9 -0.5 -13.9
  Jan 09, 2024 103   Akron L 76-80 23%     6 - 7 0 - 3 -1.8 +10.3 -12.4
  Jan 13, 2024 143   @ Toledo L 72-77 18%     6 - 8 0 - 4 -0.5 +6.9 -8.1
  Jan 16, 2024 329   @ Eastern Michigan W 76-62 58%     7 - 8 1 - 4 +6.5 +0.1 +6.5
  Jan 20, 2024 247   Miami (OH) L 80-87 OT 56%     7 - 9 1 - 5 -13.9 -5.4 -7.7
  Jan 23, 2024 344   @ Buffalo W 87-59 67%     8 - 9 2 - 5 +18.1 +4.7 +11.9
  Jan 27, 2024 314   Northern Illinois W 81-71 73%     9 - 9 3 - 5 -1.8 +0.9 -2.8
  Jan 30, 2024 235   Bowling Green L 72-81 54%     9 - 10 3 - 6 -15.4 -0.6 -15.2
  Feb 03, 2024 299   @ Western Michigan W 77-67 48%     10 - 10 4 - 6 +5.2 +4.6 +0.9
  Feb 06, 2024 154   Ohio L 79-84 OT 38%     10 - 11 4 - 7 -7.3 -1.0 -6.1
  Feb 10, 2024 216   @ Texas St. L 60-68 31%     10 - 12 -8.3 -4.4 -4.5
  Feb 17, 2024 247   @ Miami (OH) L 59-80 35%     10 - 13 4 - 8 -22.5 -10.6 -13.2
  Feb 20, 2024 314   @ Northern Illinois W 70-63 54%     11 - 13 5 - 8 +0.7 -7.6 +8.2
  Feb 24, 2024 329   Eastern Michigan L 56-58 77%     11 - 14 5 - 9 -15.0 -19.0 +3.8
  Feb 27, 2024 264   @ Central Michigan L 64-67 38%    
  Mar 02, 2024 299   Western Michigan W 73-68 69%    
  Mar 05, 2024 170   Kent St. L 70-72 43%    
  Mar 08, 2024 235   @ Bowling Green L 70-74 33%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 1.6 5th
6th 0.1 3.7 2.6 6.4 6th
7th 1.6 9.3 0.4 11.3 7th
8th 0.1 11.1 6.4 0.0 17.5 8th
9th 5.5 27.6 24.1 1.1 58.4 9th
10th 2.9 1.8 0.0 4.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 12th
Total 8.5 29.5 37.0 20.5 4.5 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 4.5% 3.0% 3.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.3
8-10 20.5% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.4 20.1
7-11 37.0% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6 36.3
6-12 29.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.4 29.1
5-13 8.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 8.4
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.6 98.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.5% 3.0% 15.4 0.1 1.7 1.2
Lose Out 8.5% 1.0% 16.0 1.0