Tennessee
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.5#15
Expected Predictive Rating+14.7#32
Pace66.7#258
Improvement+0.6#137

Offense
Total Offense+8.3#31
First Shot+1.0#146
After Offensive Rebound+7.3#1
Layup/Dunks+2.2#103
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#291
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#149
Freethrows-0.4#211
Improvement-0.5#220

Defense
Total Defense+9.3#11
First Shot+8.0#12
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#98
Layups/Dunks+3.5#59
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#132
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#64
Freethrows+0.5#143
Improvement+1.0#103
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.4% 3.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 11.8% 11.8% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 42.5% 42.5% 33.3%
Top 6 Seed 70.2% 70.2% 50.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.2% 94.2% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93.2% 93.2% 100.0%
Average Seed 5.1 5.1 6.8
.500 or above 98.7% 98.7% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 85.2% 85.2% 66.7%
Conference Champion 16.8% 16.8% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
First Four2.8% 2.8% 16.7%
First Round93.2% 93.2% 100.0%
Second Round76.2% 76.2% 100.0%
Sweet Sixteen42.1% 42.1% 33.3%
Elite Eight18.8% 18.8% 16.7%
Final Four8.2% 8.2% 0.0%
Championship Game3.3% 3.3% 0.0%
National Champion1.2% 1.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Gardner-Webb (Home) - 100.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 75 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 29 - 9
Quad 25 - 214 - 11
Quad 33 - 016 - 11
Quad 46 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 167 Mercer W 76-61 97%     1 - 0 +11.3 +0.3 +11.0
  Sat, Nov 8 192 Northern Kentucky W 95-56 97%     2 - 0 +34.1 +20.4 +13.9
  Wed, Nov 12 342 North Florida W 99-66 99%     3 - 0 +18.6 +9.0 +6.9
  Mon, Nov 17 207 Rice W 91-66 98%     4 - 0 +19.0 +16.8 +2.7
  Thu, Nov 20 231 Tennessee St. W 89-60 98%     5 - 0 +22.0 +5.5 +13.1
  Mon, Nov 24 130 Rutgers W 85-60 92%     6 - 0 +26.8 +17.8 +10.2
  Tue, Nov 25 8 Houston W 76-73 41%     7 - 0 +23.0 +26.0 -2.6
  Wed, Nov 26 17 Kansas L 76-81 51%     7 - 1 +12.2 +14.6 -2.5
  Tue, Dec 2 69 @Syracuse L 60-62 73%     7 - 2 +9.1 -5.4 +14.5
  Sat, Dec 6 12 Illinois L 62-75 48%     7 - 3 +4.9 +3.7 -0.6
  Tue, Dec 16 16 Louisville W 83-62 62%     8 - 3 +35.5 +16.1 +19.7
  Sun, Dec 21 362 Gardner-Webb W 93-57 100.0%   
  Tue, Dec 30 360 South Carolina St. W 90-55 100.0%   
  Sat, Jan 3 20 @Arkansas L 75-76 45%    
  Tue, Jan 6 36 Texas W 78-70 78%    
  Sat, Jan 10 13 @Florida L 72-75 38%    
  Tue, Jan 13 46 Texas A&M W 81-72 81%    
  Sat, Jan 17 22 Kentucky W 76-71 68%    
  Sat, Jan 24 14 @Alabama L 81-84 38%    
  Tue, Jan 27 19 @Georgia L 79-80 45%    
  Sat, Jan 31 28 Auburn W 78-72 71%    
  Tue, Feb 3 61 Mississippi W 75-64 85%    
  Sat, Feb 7 22 @Kentucky L 73-74 46%    
  Wed, Feb 11 84 @Mississippi St. W 77-69 76%    
  Sat, Feb 14 34 LSU W 77-69 76%    
  Wed, Feb 18 45 Oklahoma W 79-70 80%    
  Sat, Feb 21 10 @Vanderbilt L 75-79 37%    
  Tue, Feb 24 48 @Missouri W 77-74 62%    
  Sat, Feb 28 14 Alabama W 84-81 60%    
  Tue, Mar 3 88 @South Carolina W 73-65 77%    
  Sat, Mar 7 10 Vanderbilt W 78-76 57%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.5 5.2 4.8 2.7 0.9 0.1 16.8 1st
2nd 0.2 2.9 5.8 3.6 0.8 0.1 13.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 5.9 3.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 11.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.8 4.6 0.7 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.7 5.2 1.3 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.8 2.5 0.1 8.2 6th
7th 0.2 2.7 3.8 0.4 0.0 7.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 3.6 1.1 0.1 5.8 8th
9th 0.2 2.3 2.2 0.1 4.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 2.2 0.5 0.0 3.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.1 0.1 3.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.2 2.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.4 4.0 7.0 10.0 13.3 14.9 15.4 12.7 9.5 5.7 2.8 0.9 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.9    0.8 0.0
16-2 97.4% 2.7    2.4 0.3 0.0
15-3 84.9% 4.8    3.4 1.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 54.6% 5.2    2.2 2.3 0.6 0.1
13-5 20.0% 2.5    0.4 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.0% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.8% 16.8 9.4 5.0 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 48.8% 51.2% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.9% 100.0% 42.6% 57.4% 1.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.8% 100.0% 33.0% 67.0% 1.9 0.9 1.3 0.6 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.7% 100.0% 30.5% 69.5% 2.4 1.0 2.2 1.9 0.5 0.0 100.0%
14-4 9.5% 100.0% 25.7% 74.3% 3.0 0.7 2.3 3.8 2.2 0.4 0.0 100.0%
13-5 12.7% 100.0% 20.7% 79.3% 3.6 0.2 1.5 4.1 4.6 1.9 0.4 0.0 100.0%
12-6 15.4% 100.0% 15.6% 84.4% 4.4 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.1 4.5 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 14.9% 100.0% 10.0% 89.9% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.9 4.7 4.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 13.3% 99.7% 6.5% 93.3% 6.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.7 4.0 3.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.7%
9-9 10.0% 98.6% 4.6% 94.0% 7.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.0 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 98.5%
8-10 7.0% 89.1% 3.1% 86.0% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.7 0.8 0.0 0.8 88.7%
7-11 4.0% 62.0% 2.1% 59.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 0.1 1.5 61.2%
6-12 2.4% 18.3% 0.7% 17.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.9 17.7%
5-13 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 11.0 0.0 0.9 0.4%
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 94.2% 13.7% 80.5% 5.1 3.4 8.3 14.3 16.4 15.0 12.7 9.8 5.8 3.4 2.7 2.4 0.1 5.8 93.2%