Tennessee
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+20.2#4
Expected Predictive Rating+22.0#6
Pace65.7#269
Improvement-0.3#211

Offense
Total Offense+9.5#11
First Shot+6.6#32
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#40
Layup/Dunks+3.9#56
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#205
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#113
Freethrows+1.1#116
Improvement+0.1#174

Defense
Total Defense+10.7#1
First Shot+9.9#3
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#123
Layups/Dunks+7.7#15
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#181
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#174
Freethrows+1.8#66
Improvement-0.4#223
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 13.3% 13.8% 7.4%
#1 Seed 43.1% 44.4% 28.4%
Top 2 Seed 70.0% 71.5% 53.9%
Top 4 Seed 91.2% 92.0% 82.8%
Top 6 Seed 96.7% 97.1% 92.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.6% 99.6% 99.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.5% 99.5% 98.8%
Average Seed 2.2 2.2 2.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 94.4% 94.8% 89.6%
Conference Champion 30.5% 31.3% 20.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 1.3%
First Round99.4% 99.5% 98.6%
Second Round94.7% 95.1% 89.9%
Sweet Sixteen70.4% 71.3% 60.9%
Elite Eight46.5% 47.4% 36.8%
Final Four28.2% 28.9% 20.0%
Championship Game16.6% 17.1% 10.6%
National Champion9.5% 9.9% 5.4%

Next Game: Miami (FL) (Neutral) - 91.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a7 - 57 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 112 - 6
Quad 25 - 017 - 7
Quad 34 - 021 - 7
Quad 45 - 027 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 227   Gardner-Webb W 80-64 99%     1 - 0 +9.3 +7.2 +2.7
  Nov 09, 2024 43   @ Louisville W 77-55 73%     2 - 0 +36.0 +14.9 +22.0
  Nov 13, 2024 186   Montana W 92-57 98%     3 - 0 +30.7 +18.3 +13.2
  Nov 17, 2024 237   Austin Peay W 103-68 99%     4 - 0 +27.8 +25.8 +1.1
  Nov 21, 2024 96   Virginia W 64-42 91%     5 - 0 +27.6 +6.8 +24.2
  Nov 22, 2024 14   Baylor W 77-62 68%     6 - 0 +30.2 +19.6 +12.8
  Nov 27, 2024 326   Tennessee Martin W 78-35 99%     7 - 0 +30.6 +11.4 +25.1
  Dec 03, 2024 94   Syracuse W 96-70 94%     8 - 0 +28.6 +23.2 +5.3
  Dec 10, 2024 93   Miami (FL) W 80-65 92%    
  Dec 14, 2024 13   @ Illinois W 74-72 57%    
  Dec 17, 2024 305   Western Carolina W 86-55 99.8%   
  Dec 23, 2024 130   Middle Tennessee W 81-60 98%    
  Dec 31, 2024 156   Norfolk St. W 80-57 98%    
  Jan 04, 2025 34   Arkansas W 77-66 84%    
  Jan 07, 2025 10   @ Florida L 74-75 49%    
  Jan 11, 2025 33   @ Texas W 70-66 65%    
  Jan 15, 2025 35   Georgia W 76-65 84%    
  Jan 18, 2025 64   @ Vanderbilt W 78-70 78%    
  Jan 21, 2025 16   Mississippi St. W 76-68 77%    
  Jan 25, 2025 3   @ Auburn L 73-76 39%    
  Jan 28, 2025 9   Kentucky W 79-74 67%    
  Feb 01, 2025 10   Florida W 78-72 70%    
  Feb 05, 2025 56   Missouri W 80-66 89%    
  Feb 08, 2025 42   @ Oklahoma W 73-67 71%    
  Feb 11, 2025 9   @ Kentucky L 76-77 46%    
  Feb 15, 2025 64   Vanderbilt W 81-67 90%    
  Feb 22, 2025 30   @ Texas A&M W 70-66 64%    
  Feb 25, 2025 49   @ LSU W 75-68 73%    
  Mar 01, 2025 6   Alabama W 81-76 66%    
  Mar 05, 2025 29   @ Mississippi W 73-69 64%    
  Mar 08, 2025 69   South Carolina W 76-61 91%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.3 6.8 9.5 7.4 3.3 0.9 30.5 1st
2nd 0.2 2.3 6.9 6.9 2.8 0.5 0.0 19.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 5.5 5.1 1.6 0.1 13.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.8 4.7 1.2 0.1 10.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 4.0 1.4 0.1 7.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.0 1.9 0.2 5.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 2.1 0.4 0.0 4.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.5 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.8 0.1 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.0 5.0 8.1 11.5 14.3 15.6 15.4 12.4 7.9 3.4 0.9 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 99.4% 3.3    3.2 0.1
16-2 93.4% 7.4    6.2 1.1 0.0
15-3 76.5% 9.5    6.0 3.2 0.3 0.0
14-4 44.2% 6.8    2.5 3.0 1.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 14.5% 2.3    0.4 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.5% 30.5 19.2 8.4 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 100.0% 54.4% 45.6% 1.1 0.9 0.1 100.0%
17-1 3.4% 100.0% 43.3% 56.7% 1.1 3.1 0.3 100.0%
16-2 7.9% 100.0% 38.7% 61.3% 1.2 6.7 1.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 12.4% 100.0% 35.0% 65.0% 1.2 9.8 2.5 0.1 100.0%
14-4 15.4% 100.0% 28.3% 71.7% 1.4 10.1 4.7 0.6 0.0 100.0%
13-5 15.6% 100.0% 22.9% 77.1% 1.7 7.0 6.5 1.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.3% 100.0% 16.8% 83.2% 2.1 3.8 6.3 3.3 0.8 0.1 100.0%
11-7 11.5% 100.0% 11.3% 88.7% 2.7 1.4 3.7 4.0 1.9 0.4 0.0 100.0%
10-8 8.1% 100.0% 8.0% 92.0% 3.4 0.3 1.3 2.7 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 5.0% 100.0% 5.3% 94.7% 4.3 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
8-10 3.0% 99.7% 2.9% 96.8% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
7-11 1.6% 96.7% 1.9% 94.8% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 96.6%
6-12 0.7% 81.9% 0.8% 81.1% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 81.8%
5-13 0.2% 43.4% 43.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 43.4%
4-14 0.1% 6.7% 6.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.7%
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.6% 22.0% 77.6% 2.2 43.1 26.9 13.8 7.4 3.6 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.4 99.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.0 96.6 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 92.2 7.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 89.8 10.2