Tennessee
Southeastern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.5#18
Expected Predictive Rating+14.8#28
Pace70.1#160
Improvement-0.2#190

Offense
Total Offense+6.6#29
First Shot+1.7#127
After Offensive Rebound+4.9#3
Layup/Dunks+4.4#51
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#293
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#115
Freethrows-2.4#309
Improvement-0.4#234

Defense
Total Defense+7.9#16
First Shot+4.6#48
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#22
Layups/Dunks+3.7#58
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#192
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#171
Freethrows+0.6#153
Improvement+0.2#153
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.2% 2.8% 1.0%
#1 Seed 8.2% 10.4% 3.8%
Top 2 Seed 18.7% 22.6% 10.9%
Top 4 Seed 42.3% 49.2% 28.5%
Top 6 Seed 61.6% 68.5% 47.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 85.7% 90.7% 75.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 83.8% 89.3% 73.6%
Average Seed 5.0 4.7 5.8
.500 or above 93.6% 96.7% 87.4%
.500 or above in Conference 84.0% 87.3% 77.4%
Conference Champion 14.6% 16.8% 10.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.4% 0.5%
First Four4.1% 3.5% 5.5%
First Round83.9% 89.2% 73.1%
Second Round63.4% 69.3% 51.5%
Sweet Sixteen34.9% 39.5% 25.5%
Elite Eight16.7% 19.1% 12.0%
Final Four8.1% 9.5% 5.2%
Championship Game3.8% 4.5% 2.3%
National Champion1.7% 2.0% 1.0%

Next Game: Colorado (Away) - 66.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 9
Quad 25 - 113 - 11
Quad 34 - 017 - 11
Quad 45 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 346   Tennessee Martin W 90-62 99%     1 - 0 +11.5 +6.9 +4.3
  Nov 14, 2021 123   East Tennessee St. W 94-62 91%     2 - 0 +31.8 +14.4 +15.1
  Nov 20, 2021 6   Villanova L 53-71 38%     2 - 1 -0.4 -12.6 +11.7
  Nov 21, 2021 43   North Carolina W 89-72 65%     3 - 1 +27.4 +13.0 +13.5
  Nov 26, 2021 277   Tennessee Tech W 80-69 98%     4 - 1 +1.8 +1.9 +0.0
  Nov 30, 2021 293   Presbyterian W 86-44 98%     5 - 1 +31.7 +19.3 +16.8
  Dec 04, 2021 75   @ Colorado W 72-67 67%    
  Dec 07, 2021 17   Texas Tech L 68-69 50%    
  Dec 11, 2021 167   UNC Greensboro W 73-55 95%    
  Dec 14, 2021 334   South Carolina Upstate W 86-57 99.7%   
  Dec 18, 2021 23   Memphis W 73-72 52%    
  Dec 22, 2021 4   Arizona L 74-75 49%    
  Dec 29, 2021 13   @ Alabama L 75-79 36%    
  Jan 05, 2022 69   Mississippi W 71-61 83%    
  Jan 08, 2022 10   @ LSU L 70-75 33%    
  Jan 11, 2022 98   South Carolina W 79-67 87%    
  Jan 15, 2022 12   @ Kentucky L 69-73 35%    
  Jan 18, 2022 77   @ Vanderbilt W 72-67 66%    
  Jan 22, 2022 10   LSU W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 26, 2022 14   Florida W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 29, 2022 11   @ Texas L 63-67 35%    
  Feb 01, 2022 80   Texas A&M W 72-61 83%    
  Feb 05, 2022 98   @ South Carolina W 76-70 71%    
  Feb 09, 2022 38   @ Mississippi St. W 68-67 52%    
  Feb 12, 2022 77   Vanderbilt W 75-64 82%    
  Feb 15, 2022 12   Kentucky W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 19, 2022 24   @ Arkansas L 74-76 43%    
  Feb 22, 2022 132   @ Missouri W 73-64 79%    
  Feb 26, 2022 21   Auburn W 76-72 62%    
  Mar 01, 2022 159   @ Georgia W 77-66 85%    
  Mar 05, 2022 24   Arkansas W 77-73 62%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 4.4 4.5 3.1 1.1 0.1 14.6 1st
2nd 0.2 1.9 5.3 5.1 1.6 0.2 14.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 5.4 5.3 1.3 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.7 4.4 4.6 1.1 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.8 5.2 1.4 0.1 9.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 5.2 2.0 0.1 9.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.5 2.9 0.3 9.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.8 3.1 0.4 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.2 1.5 2.2 0.6 0.0 4.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 1.8 0.6 0.0 3.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.6 4.5 7.0 10.4 12.1 13.3 13.6 13.1 10.8 6.2 3.3 1.1 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-2 94.0% 3.1    2.6 0.5 0.0
15-3 73.5% 4.5    2.9 1.5 0.2 0.0
14-4 40.7% 4.4    1.6 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 10.4% 1.4    0.2 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.1
12-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.6% 14.6 8.4 4.2 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 66.7% 33.3% 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.1% 100.0% 36.1% 63.9% 1.2 0.9 0.3 100.0%
16-2 3.3% 100.0% 35.2% 64.8% 1.5 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.1 100.0%
15-3 6.2% 100.0% 26.1% 73.9% 1.9 2.5 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 100.0%
14-4 10.8% 100.0% 22.6% 77.4% 2.5 2.0 3.6 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.1% 100.0% 18.6% 81.4% 3.5 0.7 2.4 4.0 3.2 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 13.6% 99.5% 11.3% 88.3% 4.7 0.1 0.8 2.2 3.7 3.2 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.5%
11-7 13.3% 97.6% 7.6% 90.0% 5.8 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 2.9 2.5 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 97.4%
10-8 12.1% 92.4% 3.9% 88.6% 7.2 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.9 92.1%
9-9 10.4% 78.9% 2.9% 76.0% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.0 1.2 0.4 2.2 78.3%
8-10 7.0% 56.5% 1.6% 54.9% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.7 3.0 55.8%
7-11 4.5% 24.1% 0.5% 23.6% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.4 23.7%
6-12 2.6% 6.0% 2.3% 3.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 3.8%
5-13 1.2% 1.9% 1.9% 12.0 0.0 1.2 1.9%
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 85.7% 11.6% 74.1% 5.0 8.2 10.5 12.0 11.6 10.4 8.8 6.8 5.4 4.0 2.7 3.5 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.3 83.8%