Tennessee
Southeastern
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.6#1
Expected Predictive Rating+17.5#9
Pace68.0#190
Improvement+0.5#129

Offense
Total Offense+6.3#34
First Shot+2.9#82
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#10
Layup/Dunks+1.3#116
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#224
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#128
Freethrows+1.1#96
Improvement+1.1#34

Defense
Total Defense+13.3#1
First Shot+11.9#1
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#70
Layups/Dunks+4.2#36
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#17
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.2#4
Freethrows-1.7#298
Improvement-0.6#269
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 16.0% 19.2% 8.5%
#1 Seed 55.1% 61.6% 39.4%
Top 2 Seed 87.3% 92.0% 76.0%
Top 4 Seed 99.2% 99.7% 98.1%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.6 1.5 1.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 43.2% 50.1% 26.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round97.2% 97.8% 95.7%
Sweet Sixteen75.1% 77.0% 70.5%
Elite Eight53.4% 55.5% 48.5%
Final Four34.8% 36.5% 30.7%
Championship Game22.3% 23.7% 18.8%
National Champion13.7% 14.8% 10.9%

Next Game: Florida (Away) - 70.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 24 - 2
Quad 1b4 - 18 - 3
Quad 26 - 214 - 5
Quad 34 - 019 - 5
Quad 47 - 026 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 301   Tennessee Tech W 75-43 99%     1 - 0 +21.6 -0.7 +23.9
  Nov 13, 2022 60   Colorado L 66-78 84%     1 - 1 -3.3 -7.7 +5.9
  Nov 16, 2022 173   Florida Gulf Coast W 81-50 97%     2 - 1 +28.3 +12.6 +18.1
  Nov 23, 2022 87   Butler W 71-45 90%     3 - 1 +31.8 +3.9 +28.4
  Nov 24, 2022 43   USC W 73-66 OT 80%     4 - 1 +17.6 +1.6 +15.6
  Nov 25, 2022 7   Kansas W 64-50 62%     5 - 1 +30.5 +2.5 +28.6
  Nov 30, 2022 339   McNeese St. W 76-40 99%     6 - 1 +22.3 -1.5 +26.2
  Dec 04, 2022 294   Alcorn St. W 94-40 99%     7 - 1 +44.1 +18.0 +26.9
  Dec 07, 2022 193   Eastern Kentucky W 84-49 97%     8 - 1 +31.1 +3.2 +25.6
  Dec 11, 2022 33   Maryland W 56-53 77%     9 - 1 +15.0 -7.4 +22.6
  Dec 17, 2022 9   @ Arizona L 70-75 54%     9 - 2 +13.6 +3.8 +9.8
  Dec 21, 2022 314   Austin Peay W 86-44 99%     10 - 2 +31.0 +14.4 +19.4
  Dec 28, 2022 96   @ Mississippi W 63-59 86%     11 - 2 1 - 0 +11.9 -0.7 +12.9
  Jan 03, 2023 56   Mississippi St. W 87-53 88%     12 - 2 2 - 0 +40.7 +32.4 +12.4
  Jan 07, 2023 225   @ South Carolina W 85-42 96%     13 - 2 3 - 0 +42.6 +16.4 +28.3
  Jan 10, 2023 85   Vanderbilt W 77-68 93%     14 - 2 4 - 0 +12.3 +11.3 +1.9
  Jan 14, 2023 32   Kentucky L 56-63 83%     14 - 3 4 - 1 +2.4 -12.2 +14.5
  Jan 17, 2023 56   @ Mississippi St. W 70-59 76%     15 - 3 5 - 1 +23.0 +14.1 +10.0
  Jan 21, 2023 107   @ LSU W 77-56 88%     16 - 3 6 - 1 +27.5 +16.2 +13.5
  Jan 25, 2023 102   Georgia W 70-41 94%     17 - 3 7 - 1 +30.9 -1.1 +32.0
  Jan 28, 2023 10   Texas W 82-71 73%     18 - 3 +24.1 +19.5 +5.2
  Feb 01, 2023 44   @ Florida W 68-62 71%    
  Feb 04, 2023 30   Auburn W 71-61 83%    
  Feb 08, 2023 85   @ Vanderbilt W 73-62 84%    
  Feb 11, 2023 51   Missouri W 80-68 88%    
  Feb 15, 2023 4   Alabama W 74-70 67%    
  Feb 18, 2023 32   @ Kentucky W 69-64 67%    
  Feb 21, 2023 40   @ Texas A&M W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 25, 2023 225   South Carolina W 76-51 99%    
  Feb 28, 2023 21   Arkansas W 72-63 80%    
  Mar 04, 2023 30   @ Auburn W 68-64 64%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 15 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 3.3 12.5 18.3 8.8 43.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 7.5 17.0 15.4 4.6 45.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.5 3.8 1.4 0.1 8.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.3 2.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 5.0 11.9 21.6 28.1 22.9 8.8 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 8.8    7.7 1.2
16-2 79.9% 18.3    11.3 7.0 0.1
15-3 44.6% 12.5    5.2 6.9 0.5
14-4 15.0% 3.3    0.7 1.8 0.7 0.0
13-5 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 43.2% 43.2 24.8 17.0 1.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 8.8% 100.0% 39.5% 60.5% 1.1 7.9 0.9 100.0%
16-2 22.9% 100.0% 33.7% 66.3% 1.2 18.4 4.4 0.1 100.0%
15-3 28.1% 100.0% 31.7% 68.3% 1.4 17.7 9.8 0.6 0.0 100.0%
14-4 21.6% 100.0% 28.3% 71.7% 1.7 8.7 10.4 2.3 0.2 100.0%
13-5 11.9% 100.0% 26.4% 73.6% 2.3 2.1 5.5 3.5 0.7 0.1 100.0%
12-6 5.0% 100.0% 23.2% 76.8% 3.0 0.2 1.2 2.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 1.3% 100.0% 22.6% 77.4% 3.9 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
10-8 0.3% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 5.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 30.9% 69.1% 1.6 55.1 32.2 9.1 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.8% 100.0% 1.1 89.8 10.2